Acknowledgements
The lecture notes for Part II: Decision Analysis draw strongly on the 1978 course manual "Decision Analysis" by Professors Alvin Drake and Ralph Keeney. The notes for Part III: Cost-Benefit Analysis are derived from material first developed by Professor Amedeo Odoni.
Lecture notes files.
| SES # |
Topics |
| Part 1: Reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (RPRA) |
| 1 |
Introduction (PDF)
RPRA 1: The logic of certainty (PDF)
|
| 2 |
RPRA 2: Elements of probability theory (PDF) |
| 3 |
RPRA 3: Probability distributions (PDF) |
| 4 |
RPRA 3: Probability distributions (cont.) |
| 5 |
RPRA 4: Availability (PDF) |
| 6 |
RPRA 5: Data and epistemic uncertainties; statistics (PDF) |
| 7 |
RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (PDF) |
| 8 |
RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (cont.) |
| 9 |
RPRA 7: Risk management (PDF) |
| 10 |
Guest lecture |
| 11 |
Guest lecture |
| 12 |
RPRA quiz |
| Part II: Decision analysis (DA) |
| 13 |
DA 1: The multistage decision model (PDF) |
| 14 |
DA 2: The value of perfect information (PDF) |
| 15 |
DA 3: The axioms of rational behavior (PDF) |
| 16 |
DA 4: Introduction to utility (PDF)
DA 5: Risk aversion (PDF)
|
| 17 |
DA 6: Multiattribute utility theory (PDF) |
| 18 |
DA 7: Decision analysis and risk management (PDF) |
| 19 |
Guest lecture |
| 20 |
DA quiz |
| Part III: Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) |
| 21 |
CBA 1: Background and fundamental premises (PDF) |
| 22 |
CBA 2: The time value of money (PDF) |
| 23 |
CBA 3: Bases for comparison of alternatives (PDF) |
| 24 |
CBA 4: Including uncertainty (PDF) |
| 25 |
CBA 5: Evaluating public activities (PDF) |
| 26 |
Guest lecture |
| 27 |
CBA quiz |