| 1 |
Introduction and Overview |
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| 2 |
Institutions I: Political and Analytical Organizations |
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climate Change Information Sheets No. 17-21, 2002.
US Congressional Budget Office. The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer. April 2003.
Jacoby, H., R. Prinn and R. Schmalensee. "Kyoto's Unfinished Business." Foreign Affairs 77 (1998): 54-66.
"Summary for Policymakers." Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780521015028. [Skim to get an idea of the issues the IPCC deals with.] |
| 3 |
Review of the Mathematics of Climate Analysis |
Notes to be distributed in class. |
| 4 |
Climate Machine I: Past Climate and Gases, Aerosols and Radiation |
Karl, T., and K. Trenberth. "Modern Global Climate Change." Science 302 (5 Dec. 2003).
Mann, M., et al. "On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth." EOS 84, no. 27 (8 July 2003): 256-257.
"Summary for Policymakers." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 2001, pp. 1-18. ISBN: 9780521015028. |
| 5 |
Introduction to the Toy IGSM |
Notes to be distributed in class. |
| 6 |
Economics I: Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions |
Kolstad, C. Environmental Economics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1999, Chapter 4. ISBN: 9780195119541.
Manne, and R. Richels. "CO2 Emissions Limits: an Economic Cost Analysis for the USA." The Energy Journal 11, no. 2 (1990).
Weyant, J. "Economic Models: How They Work and Why Their Results Differ." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies and Solutions. Edited by M. Claussen. Boston, MA: Brill Academic Publishers, 2001. ISBN: 9789004122765. |
| 7 |
Institutions II: The International Climate Negotiations |
Bodansky, D. "Climate Commitments: Assessing the Options." In Beyond Kyoto: Advancing the International Effort Against Climate Change. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December 2003, pp. 37-60.
Skolnikoff, E. "Same Science, Differing Policies." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report No. 22, 1997.
Babiker, M., H. Jacoby, J. Reilly and D. Reiner. "The Evolution of a Climate Regime: Kyoto to Marrakech and Beyond." Environmental Science and Policy 5 (2002): 195-206. |
| 8 |
Climate Machine II: Dynamics of the Atmosphere and Oceans |
Schneider, S. "Introduction to Climate Modeling." In Climate System Modeling. Edited by K. Trenberth. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp. 3-26. ISBN: 05210432316.
Washington, W. "Climate-Model Responses to Increased CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gases." In Climate System Modeling. Edited by K. Trenberth. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp. 643-668. ISBN: 05210432316. |
| 9 |
Review of the Economics of Environmental Quality |
US Congressional Budget Office. The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, 2003, chapter 3. ISBN: 9780160513855.
Kolstad, C. Environmental Economics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1999, Chapter 5. ISBN: 9780195119541. |
| 10 |
Economics II: Greenhouse Emissions and Policy Costs |
Paltsev, S., et al. "Emissions Trading to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States: The McCain-Lieberman Proposal." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report No. 97, 2003.
Babiker, M., J. Reilly and H. Jacoby. "The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries." Energy Policy 28 (2000): 525-36.
Edmonds, J., R. Roop and M. Scott. "Technological Change and Its Effects on Mitigation Costs." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies and Solutions. Edited by M. Claussen. Boston, MA: Brill Academic Publishers, 2001. ISBN: 9789004122765.
Grubb, M. "Technologies, Energy Systems, and the Timing of CO2 Emissions Abatement: An overview of economic issues." Energy Policy 25, no. 2 (1997): 159-172. |
| 11 |
Renewables, New Technologies and Bottom-Up Analysis |
Hoffert, M., et al. "Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet." Scientific American 298 (2002): 981-987.
Herzog, H., B. Eliasson and O. Karstad. "Capturing Greenhouse Gases." Scientific American (2000): 72-79. |
| 12 |
Climate Machine III: Interaction of Atmosphere, Oceans and Biosphere |
Prinn, R., et al. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies." Climatic Change. 1999. Sections 1, 2 and 3. |
| 13 |
Issues in the Construction of Climate Effects Relationships |
Nordhaus, W., and J. Boyer.Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. 1999, Chapter 4.
Jacoby, H. "Informing Climate Policy Given Incommensurable Benefits Estimates." OECD Workshop on the Benefits of Climate Policy, December 2002. |
| 14 |
Economics III: Climate Policy Analysis Under Certainty |
Nordhaus, W. "Rolling the 'DICE': An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases." Resource and Energy Economics 15 (1993): 27-50.
Manne, A., and R. Richels. "On Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations - Cost-Effective Emissions Reduction Strategies." Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2 (1997): 251-265.
Toth, F., et al. "Exploring Options for Global Climate Policy: A New Analytical Framework." Environment, June 2002, pp. 23-33. |
| 15 |
Interaction of Climate Change and Air Pollution |
Working Group on Public Health and Fossil Fuel Combustion. "Short-term improvements in public health from global climate policies on fossil fuel combustion: an interim report." Lancet 350 (8 Nov. 1997): 1341-1349.
Cifuentes, L., et al. "Hidden Health Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation." Science 293 (17 August 2001): 1257-1259. |
| 16 |
Climate Machine IV: Regional Effects of Climate Change |
National Assessment Synthesis Team, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Climate Impacts in the United States (2000). pp. 1-37 (Full report available at Lindgren and Dewey Libraries or at National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change)
"Summary for Policymakers." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001, pp. 1-17.
Wolff, E. "Whither Antarctic Sea Ice." Science 302 (14 Nov. 2003): 1164.
Whitfield, J. "Too Hot to Handle." Nature 425 (25 September 2003): 338-339. |
| 17 |
Review of Methods of Uncertainty Analysis |
Notes to be distributed in class. |
| 18 |
IA: Predicting Change: Sensitivity Studies and Uncertainty Analysis |
Prinn, R., et al. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Analysis: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies." Climatic Change. 1999, Sections 4 and 5.
Webster, M., et al. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response." Climatic Change 61 (3): 295-320.
Forest, C., et al. "Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations." Science 295 (2002): 113-117.
Forest, C., P. Stone and H. Jacoby. "How to Think About Human Influence on Climate." Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 17, no. 2 (2002): 47-51. |
| 19 |
Introduction to Environmental Decision Under Uncertainty |
"Decision Analysis." Chapter 1 in Data, Models and Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science, by D. Bertsimas and R. Freund. Cincinnati: South-Western College Pub., 2000, pp. 1-34. |
| 20 |
Air Pollution in Developing Countries and the Asian Brown Cloud |
Ramanathan, V., and M. V. Ramana. "Atmospheric Brown Clouds, Long-Range Transport and Climate Impacts." EM, December 2003.
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Expert Panel. The Asian Brown Cloud: Climate and Other Environmental Impacts. 2002. [Read the Executive Summary, available at Impact Study, The Asian Brown Cloud: Climate and other Environmental Impacts] |
| 21 |
Economics IV: Climate Policy Choice Under Uncertainty |
"The Greenhouse Debate: Time for Action?" EOS Transactions 71/53, 31 Dec. 1991.
Webster, M. "The Curious Role of 'Learning' in Climate Policy: Should We Wait for More Data?" The Energy Journal 23, no. 2 (2002): 97-119.
Webster, M. "Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to Policy-Makers and the Public." Climatic Change 61, no. 1-2: 1-8. |
| 22 |
Institutions III: Domestic Politics and Implementation |
Skolnikoff, E. "The Role of Science in Policy: The Climate Change Debate in the United States." Environment 41, no. 5 (1999).
Lee, H. "U.S. Climate Policy: Factors and Constraints." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies and Solutions. Edited by M. Claussen. Boston, MA: Brill Academic Publishers, 2001. ISBN: 9789004122765. |
| 23 |
Climate Machine V: Unresolved Problems in Climate Analysis |
Oppenheimer, M. "Global Warming and the Stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet." Nature 393 (1998): 325-332.
Ramanathan, V., et al. "Atmosphere - Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle." Science 294 (2001): 2119-2124.
Kerr, R. "Warming's Unpleasant Surprise: Shivering in the Greenhouse." Science 281 (1998): 156-158.
Harvell, C. "Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota." Science 296 (21 June 2002): 2158-2162.
Prather, M. "An Environmental Experiment with H2." Science 302 (24 Oct. 2003): 581-582. |
| 24 |
Discussion of Homework Set 4, and of the Policy Exercise |
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| 25 |
Student Team Presentations |
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| 26 |
Final Summary and Discussion |
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