| 1 |
Introduction and overview (HJ and RP) |
"The Heat Is On: A Special Report on Climate Change." The Economist, September 9-15, 2006. |
| 2 |
Institutions I: Political and analytical organizations (HJ and RP) |
 Climate Change Secretariat. Caring for Climate: A Guide to the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Bonn, Germany: Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC), 2005, pp. 5-36. ISBN: 9292190202.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers." In Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. ISBN: 9780521015073.
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| 3 |
Review of the mathematics of climate analysis (JC) |
Notes to be distributed in class. |
| 4 |
Climate I: Past climate, and gases, aerosols and radiation (RP) |
Karl, Thomas R., and Kevin E. Trenberth. "Modern Global Climate Change." Science 302, no. 5651 (2003): 1719-1723.
Prinn, Ronald. "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases." Chapter 9 in The Global Carbon Cycle. Edited by C. Field and M. Raupach. Washington, DC: Island press, 2004, pp. 205-216. ISBN: 9781559635271.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers." In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp. 1-14. ISBN: 9780521705967.
Andreae, M., C. Jones, and P. Cox. "Strong Present-day Aerosol Cooling Implies a Hot Future." Nature 435, no. 30 (2005): 1187-1190.
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| 5 |
Institutions II: The international climate negotiations (HJ) |
Jacoby, Henry, and David Reiner. "Getting Climate Policy on Track after The Hague: An Update." Chapter 15 in The Global Governance Reader: Concepts and Issues. Edited by R. Wilkinson. New York, NY: Routledge, 2005, pp. 274-290. ISBN: 9780415332071.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Twelfth Session of the Conference of Parties to the UN FCCC Second Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Washington, DC: UN FCCC, 2006.
Skolnikoff, E. B. "Same Science, Differing Policies." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 22, 1997.
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| 6 |
Climate II: Dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans (RP) |
Schneider, Stephen. "Introduction to Climate Modeling". Chapter 1 in Climate System Modeling. Edited by K. Trenberth. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1993, pp. 3-26. ISBN: 9780521432313.
Hansen, J., et al. "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications." Science 308, no. 5727 (2005): 1431-1435.
Penner, Joyce. "The Cloud Conundrum." Nature 432, no. 7020 (2004): 962.
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| 7 |
Economics primer (MS) |
Kolstad, Charles. Environmental Economics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1999, pp. 49-77. ISBN: 9780195119541.
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| 8 |
Economics I: Economic growth, technology and GHG emissions (HJ) |
U.S. Congressional Budget Office. The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer. University Press of the Pacific, 2003, chapters 1, 3, and 4. ISBN: 9781410208309.
Weyant, J. "Economic Models: How They Work and Why Their Results Differ." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies and Solutions. Leiden, Netherlands: Brill Academic Publishers, 2001. ISBN: 9789004122765.
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| 9 |
Economics of the global commons (MS) |
U.S. Congressional Budget Office. The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer. University Press of the Pacific, 2003, chapter 3. ISBN: 9781410208309.
Callan, Scott J., and Janet M. Thomas. Environmental Economics and Management. Mason, OH: South-Western College Pub, 2006, chapter 3. ISBN: 9780324320671.
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| 10 |
Economics II: The economics of GHG emissions control (HJ) |
Deutch, John, Ernest Moniz, et al. "The Role of Coal in Energy Growth and CO2 Emissions." Chapter 2 in The Future of Coal. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. ISBN: 9780615140926.
Babiker, Mustafa, John Reilly, and Henry Jacoby. "The Kyoto Protocol and Developing Countries." Energy Policy 28, no. 8 (2000): 525-36.
Edmonds, J., J. Roop, and M. Scott. "Technological Change and Its Effects on Mitigation Costs." In Climate Change: Science, Strategies and Solutions. Leiden, Netherlands: Brill Academic Publishers, 2001. ISBN: 9789004122765.
Hoffert, M., et al. "Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet." Scientific American 298 (2002): 981-987.
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| 11 |
Introduction to the Toy IGSM (MS and JC) |
Notes to be distributed in class. |
| 12 |
Climate III: Interaction of atmosphere, oceans and biosphere (RP) |
Prinn, R., et al. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies." Climatic Change 41, no. 3/4 (1999): 469-546.
Sokolov, A. P., et al. The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report #124, 2005. (PDF - 1.4 MB)#
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| 13 |
Emissions trading systems (HJ) |
Ellerman, A. Denny, Paul Joskow, and David Harrison, Jr. Emissions Trading in the U.S.: Experience, Lessons and Considerations for Greenhouse Gases. Washington, DC: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2003.
Reilly, J., et al. The Cost of Options to Limit U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Cambridge, MA: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007.
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| 14 |
Climate IV: Regional impacts of climate change (RP) |
National Assessment Synthesis Team. Climate Change Impacts on the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2001, pp. 1-37.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers." In Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001, pp. 1-17. ISBN: 9780521015004.
Comiso, Josefino, and Claire Parkinson. "Satellite-observed Changes in the Arctic." Physics Today 57, no. 8 (2004): 38-44.
Wolff, Eric. "Whither Antarctic Sea Ice." Science 302, no. 5648 (2003): 1164.
Whitfield, John. "Too Hot to Handle." Nature 425 (2003): 338-339.
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| 15 |
Analysis of the benefits of GHG mitigation (HJ) |
Nordhaus, William, and Joseph Boyer. Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003, chapter 4. ISBN: 9780262640541.
Stern, Nicholas. "Economic Modeling of Climate-change Impacts." Chapter 6 in The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. ISBN: 9780521700801.
Jacoby, Henry. "Informing Climate Policy Given Incommensurable Benefits Estimates." Global Environmental Change 14, no. 3 (2004): 287-297.
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| 16 |
Economics III: Climate policy analysis (HJ) |
Toth, Ferenc, et al. "Exploring Options for Global Climate Policy: A New Analytical Framework." Environment 44, no. 5 (2002): 23-33.
Anonymous. "The Greenhouse Debate: Time for Action?" EOS Transactions 71, no. 53 (1991): 593.
Manne, Alan, and Richard Richels. Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emissions Limits. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992, chapter 4. ISBN: 9780262132800.
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| 17 |
Pollution-climate interactions (JC) |
Prinn, R. G., J. Reilly, M. Sarofim, C. Wang, and B. Felzer. "Effects of Air Pollution Control on Climate." In Integrated Assessment of Human-induced Climate Change. Edited by M. Schlesinger, H. Kheshgi, and J. Reilly. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, in press. |
| 18 |
Review of methods of uncertainty analysis (MS and JC) |
Notes to be distributed in class. |
| 19 |
Integrated assessment I: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (RP) |
Prinn, R., et al. "Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies." Climatic Change 41, no. 3/4 (1999): 469-546.
Webster, M., et al. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response." Climatic Change 61, no. 3 (2003): 295-320.
Forest, Chris, Peter Stone, and Andrei Sokolov. "Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings." Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): 1-4.
Webster, M. "Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to Policy-Makers and the Public." Climatic Change 61, nos. 1-2 (2003): 1-8.
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| 20 |
Analysis of the non-CO2 gases (MS) |
Reilly, John, Marcus Sarofim, Sergey Paltsev, and Ronald Prinn. "The Role of Non-CO2 GHGs in Climate Policy: Analysis Using the MIT IGSM." Energy Journal Special Issue on Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy (2006): 503-520. |
| 21 |
Integrated assessment II: The Kyoto protocol and post-2012 options (HJ) |
Aldy, Joseph, Scott Barrett, and Robert Stavins. "Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures." Climate Policy 3 (2003): 373-397.
Oppenheimer, M. "Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: The Role of Science, the Limits of Science." Risk Analysis 25, no. 6 (2005): 1399-1407.
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| 22 |
Discussion of homework sets and the policy exercise |
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| 23 |
Climate V: Unresolved problems in climate analysis (RP) |
Kerr, Richard. "Confronting the Bogeyman of the Climate System." Science 310, no. 5747 (2005): 432-433.
Harvell, C. Drew, Charles E. Mitchell, Jessica R. Ward, Sonia Altizer, Andrew P. Dobson, Richard S. Ostfeld, and Michael D. Samuel. "Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota." Science 296, no. 5576 (2002): 2158-2162.
Schiermeier, Quirin. "Greenland's Climate: A Rising Tide." Nature 428, no. 6979 (2004): 114-115.
Kerr, Richard. "A Bit of Icy Antarctica Is Sliding toward the Sea." Science 305, no. 5692 (2004): 1897.
Emanuel, Kerry. "Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years." Nature 436, no. 7051 (2005): 686-688.
Schiermeier, Quirin. "Clear Skies Raise Global-warming Estimates." Nature 435, no. 7046 (2005): 1142-1143.
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| 24 |
Integrated assessment III: Adaptation and geoengineering (HJ and RP) |
Crutzen, Paul. "Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?" Climatic Change 77, nos. 3-4 (2006): 211-220.
Keith, David. "Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect." Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 25 (2000): 245-284.
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| 25 |
Student team presentations (All and guests) |
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| 26 |
Final summary and discussion (All) |
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