(with selected feedback cycles)

(after Stael von Holstein, 1973)

| Deterministic Phase | Probabilistic Phase |
| 1. Define Problem and Limits of Investigation | 1. Express Uncertainty in Variables by Means of Probabilities |
| 2. Alternative Courses of Action | 2. Probabilistic Model |
| 3. Outcomes of Each Alternative | 3. Establish Relative Value of Probabilistic Outcomes |
| 4. Select Decision and State Variables | 4. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis |
| 5. Relate Outcomes and Variables | |
| 6. Time Preference | Information Phase |
| 7. Dominated Alternatives Eliminated | 1. Value of Perfect Information |
| 8. Sensitivity of Outcome to Variables | 2. Evaluate Various Information Collection Schemes |
The "Design Circle"

The "Design Spiral"




