Conditional Probability

{}

Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature.

Download the video from iTunes U or the Internet Archive.

Summary

This video provides an introduction to conditional probability and its calculations. The first chapter reviews basic probability terminology and introduces standard conditional probability notation using a simple marble drawing example. The second chapter introduces the use of tree diagrams to help visualize the sample space and allow for more complex probability calculations. In the last chapter, we see how conditional probability can and must be used to make sense of medical diagnoses.

Learning Objectives

After watching this video students will be able to:

  • Calculate the conditional probability of a given event using tables and trees.
  • Understand how conditional probability can be used to interpret medical diagnoses.

Funding provided by the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD)

Developed by the Teaching and Learning Laboratory (TLL) at MIT for SUTD

MIT © 2012

Related Resources

Instructor Guide

Conditional Probability Instructor Guide (PDF)

It is highly recommended that the video is paused when prompted so that students are able to attempt the activities on their own and then check their solutions against the video.

During the video, students will:

  • Be introduced to basic conditional probability notation.
  • Calculate the probability of an event given certain conditions.
  • Calculate conditional probabilities using both two-way tables and tree diagrams.
  • Determine the likelihood of cancer from a given medical diagnosis.

Free Downloads

Video