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PROFESSOR: OK, so you might
recall we had a snow day,

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00:00:25,100 --> 00:00:27,650
and the snow day bumped us.

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00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,890
We interrupted our
introduction theme

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00:00:32,890 --> 00:00:36,280
and dove right into
data collection.

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00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:37,960
Then we did
short-range planning.

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00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,810
So Neema was lecturing
that over two lectures.

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00:00:40,810 --> 00:00:46,480
Now we're back to the third
and last introductory material.

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00:00:46,480 --> 00:00:49,450
And then we'll go back and
do more data and modeling

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00:00:49,450 --> 00:00:50,410
if that makes sense.

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00:00:50,410 --> 00:00:53,590
Sorry for that interruption.

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00:00:53,590 --> 00:00:58,390
So it's a little more general
than the other classes

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00:00:58,390 --> 00:00:59,620
that we've seen.

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00:00:59,620 --> 00:01:02,530
And today's topic is model
capacities and costs.

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00:01:02,530 --> 00:01:08,200
So we'll cover a simple capacity
analysis that you might do,

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00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,580
you know, back of the
envelope calculation.

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00:01:10,580 --> 00:01:13,144
If somebody is asking
you about something,

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00:01:13,144 --> 00:01:14,560
and it's a completely
new service,

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00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,740
and you just want
to have an idea,

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00:01:16,740 --> 00:01:19,090
I will give an example of that.

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00:01:19,090 --> 00:01:20,740
Then we'll look at
worldwide status

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00:01:20,740 --> 00:01:22,720
of urban rail systems,
both heavy rail

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00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,450
and light rail, some bus ways.

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00:01:25,450 --> 00:01:27,880
And we'll look at capital
and operating costs

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00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:32,140
at a high level, focusing more
on the US using the National

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00:01:32,140 --> 00:01:34,740
Transit Database.

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00:01:34,740 --> 00:01:38,580
All right, so
first slide here is

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00:01:38,580 --> 00:01:41,560
an update of the statistics
I gave you earlier.

35
00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,470
So you have these
statistics from

36
00:01:43,470 --> 00:01:45,610
the previous
introductory lecture,

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00:01:45,610 --> 00:01:47,370
but these are updated for 2013.

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00:01:47,370 --> 00:01:51,040
So I'm not going to
cover this in detail.

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00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,700
But if you want to compare
with the previous table,

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00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:54,480
you can do so.

41
00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,050
And here you have
more updated numbers.

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00:01:58,050 --> 00:02:01,110
These come from
the APTA Fact Book,

43
00:02:01,110 --> 00:02:05,247
and they take the numbers from
the National Transit Database.

44
00:02:08,110 --> 00:02:11,660
And let's start with that
simple capacity analysis.

45
00:02:11,660 --> 00:02:14,500
So this is a
theoretical exercise,

46
00:02:14,500 --> 00:02:18,130
but it gives you some idea
of how one might approach--

47
00:02:18,130 --> 00:02:20,400
if you have nothing
to go on, how

48
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,730
one might approach
estimating what capacity

49
00:02:23,730 --> 00:02:25,380
you need for some service.

50
00:02:25,380 --> 00:02:29,460
So the problem is, given
a pie-shaped sector

51
00:02:29,460 --> 00:02:31,650
into the central
business district served

52
00:02:31,650 --> 00:02:34,830
by a single transit line, what
will be the peak passenger

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00:02:34,830 --> 00:02:37,800
flow entering the central
business district.

54
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,110
And that might give you an
idea of what mode you need.

55
00:02:40,110 --> 00:02:40,609
Right?

56
00:02:40,609 --> 00:02:41,990
Can you run a bus system?

57
00:02:41,990 --> 00:02:46,350
Do you need a light rail,
a BRT, a heavy rail?

58
00:02:46,350 --> 00:02:48,870
So it gives you some idea.

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00:02:48,870 --> 00:02:50,790
And you might have
some statistics

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00:02:50,790 --> 00:02:53,220
about the city where
you're being asked about,

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00:02:53,220 --> 00:02:54,390
the question.

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00:02:54,390 --> 00:02:56,100
And so you can make
some assumptions.

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00:02:56,100 --> 00:02:59,920
You can draw this on the back
of a napkin and, you know,

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00:02:59,920 --> 00:03:02,820
do some calculus with
it if you want to.

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00:03:02,820 --> 00:03:04,630
And that's what
we're going to do.

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00:03:04,630 --> 00:03:07,220
So I'm going to draw on
the board a little bit.

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What do we have here?

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00:03:16,770 --> 00:03:22,960
Yeah, I'll draw the same
shape here for reference.

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00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:28,760
So we have a cone-shaped
sector or a pie-shaped sector.

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00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:33,230
And there's some angle
of that corridor, which

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00:03:33,230 --> 00:03:36,560
is the catchment area
over which people

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00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,150
might walk to the service.

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00:03:38,150 --> 00:03:41,780
The service, by the
way, is along some line,

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00:03:41,780 --> 00:03:49,290
and it reaches the city center,
which we're calling the CBD.

75
00:03:49,290 --> 00:03:52,950
And at that center, there is
some density, some population

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00:03:52,950 --> 00:03:59,460
density, which we call
P sub c, the population

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00:03:59,460 --> 00:04:02,340
density at the center.

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00:04:02,340 --> 00:04:10,040
And at any point along this
pie or pie-shaped sector,

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00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:16,220
this, the length of
this arc, is r theta,

80
00:04:16,220 --> 00:04:24,110
where theta is the angle, and
r is the radius from the CBD

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00:04:24,110 --> 00:04:28,200
up to that point.

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00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,240
So r is a variable,
and it starts at 0,

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00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,520
and it extends all the
way up to the length

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00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,580
of the corridor,
which is L. L is

85
00:04:36,580 --> 00:04:40,370
the maximum value r can take.

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00:04:40,370 --> 00:04:42,750
Does that make sense?

87
00:04:42,750 --> 00:04:44,282
Everybody following?

88
00:04:44,282 --> 00:04:50,750
OK, and then we take little
slices of these arcs.

89
00:04:50,750 --> 00:04:59,600
And they have a very, very thin,
infinitesimally small width,

90
00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:07,890
dr. And we can--

91
00:05:07,890 --> 00:05:11,310
that sort of sets the stage
for what we want to do here.

92
00:05:11,310 --> 00:05:12,360
Let's assume something.

93
00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:16,110
Let's start assuming the
population density, which

94
00:05:16,110 --> 00:05:21,030
starts at a very high level
in the center of the business

95
00:05:21,030 --> 00:05:23,772
district, starts
dropping as you move out.

96
00:05:23,772 --> 00:05:24,480
That makes sense.

97
00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:24,690
Right?

98
00:05:24,690 --> 00:05:26,320
In most cities,
that's what happens.

99
00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:28,580
We're going to assume
that it drops linearly

100
00:05:28,580 --> 00:05:33,960
and that it reaches some value
lower than Pc at some distance

101
00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:35,430
L from the CBD.

102
00:05:35,430 --> 00:05:43,060
And if we look at the
distance from the CBD

103
00:05:43,060 --> 00:05:52,550
here, which we call r, and we
start at 0, 0 is at the CBD.

104
00:05:52,550 --> 00:05:53,840
Right?

105
00:05:53,840 --> 00:05:58,150
We start with a
population density of Pc.

106
00:05:58,150 --> 00:06:01,940
And we're going to assume it
drops linearly to some amount.

107
00:06:01,940 --> 00:06:05,330
And at some point,
we'll reach L.

108
00:06:05,330 --> 00:06:07,400
And that's where we
stop the corridor.

109
00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:14,460
So this part doesn't really
matter because the corridor

110
00:06:14,460 --> 00:06:17,310
doesn't serve the part.

111
00:06:17,310 --> 00:06:23,790
And the rate at which that
population density declines,

112
00:06:23,790 --> 00:06:34,200
we will call delta P.
OK, so total population

113
00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,240
density is decreasing as we
move outwards from the center.

114
00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,900
All right, so let's
start with what is

115
00:06:39,900 --> 00:06:41,820
the population in the corridor.

116
00:06:41,820 --> 00:06:42,320
Right?

117
00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:46,020
Because we need to know how many
people are in that corridor.

118
00:06:46,020 --> 00:06:48,330
And then from that,
we can calculate,

119
00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:50,160
based on some assumptions,
how many people

120
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:51,750
might access that line.

121
00:06:54,655 --> 00:06:57,850
So we'll start with
calculating the population

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00:06:57,850 --> 00:07:00,250
in that whole pie-shaped sector.

123
00:07:00,250 --> 00:07:07,190
All right, so call
it population.

124
00:07:07,190 --> 00:07:13,060
So we'll take an integral from
r equals 0 to r equals L, which

125
00:07:13,060 --> 00:07:14,320
is the length of the corridor.

126
00:07:20,340 --> 00:07:26,720
And we take r theta, which is
the length of this arc, which

127
00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,920
it starts very small and gets
longer and longer until we

128
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:36,260
get to this part,
which is L theta alone.

129
00:07:36,260 --> 00:07:36,760
Right?

130
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:38,520
So this is the arc length.

131
00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:53,620
And we multiply by the
arc width, which is dr.

132
00:07:53,620 --> 00:07:56,620
And we multiply by the
population density.

133
00:07:56,620 --> 00:07:58,840
And the population
density is a function

134
00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,330
of how far we are
from the center.

135
00:08:00,330 --> 00:08:05,380
So that's going to be P of r.

136
00:08:05,380 --> 00:08:09,860
And we can call
this graph P of r.

137
00:08:12,910 --> 00:08:14,320
The y value here is P of r.

138
00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,330
It starts at Pc, drops to 0.

139
00:08:16,330 --> 00:08:20,890
Or before reaching--
well, yeah, it

140
00:08:20,890 --> 00:08:24,010
doesn't get to 0 at the
point of reaching L. Right?

141
00:08:24,010 --> 00:08:26,230
So it remains positive
throughout the length

142
00:08:26,230 --> 00:08:28,810
of the corridor.

143
00:08:28,810 --> 00:08:32,200
All right, and now we can
just, you know, do some math

144
00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,169
and calculate this.

145
00:08:35,169 --> 00:08:40,970
So I'll just run through it.

146
00:08:40,970 --> 00:08:47,350
So we have r theta dr. Let's
substitute this function, which

147
00:08:47,350 --> 00:08:49,000
is the population density.

148
00:08:53,630 --> 00:08:55,610
We assume that it
had this shape.

149
00:08:55,610 --> 00:08:59,010
So let's plug that in here.

150
00:08:59,010 --> 00:09:00,430
It's a linear function.

151
00:09:00,430 --> 00:09:03,570
So it starts at the
center with a high number,

152
00:09:03,570 --> 00:09:12,771
and it decreases as a function
of r at a rate of dP and times

153
00:09:12,771 --> 00:09:13,270
r.

154
00:09:13,270 --> 00:09:13,769
Right?

155
00:09:13,769 --> 00:09:17,180
So when r equals 0,
there's no decrease.

156
00:09:17,180 --> 00:09:20,150
As you move this way,
you multiply r times dP,

157
00:09:20,150 --> 00:09:22,940
and you get the
difference between Pc

158
00:09:22,940 --> 00:09:26,240
and the point where you are.

159
00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:42,370
All right, here I'm just
going to collect terms to make

160
00:09:42,370 --> 00:09:43,810
things look a little nicer.

161
00:10:02,310 --> 00:10:07,250
All right, so again, we're just
distributing this times that

162
00:10:07,250 --> 00:10:08,250
and that times that.

163
00:10:08,250 --> 00:10:10,130
So we have now two integrals.

164
00:10:13,010 --> 00:10:15,170
We can take some constants out.

165
00:10:15,170 --> 00:10:18,862
So theta is a constant,
and Pc is a constant.

166
00:10:18,862 --> 00:10:20,570
So we can take those
out of the integral.

167
00:10:24,660 --> 00:10:28,560
And we continue
integrating from 0 to L.

168
00:10:28,560 --> 00:10:31,820
But now we have a
simple thing, r dr,

169
00:10:31,820 --> 00:10:33,570
which we know how to integrate.

170
00:10:33,570 --> 00:10:37,010
And then here, dr is--

171
00:10:37,010 --> 00:10:38,480
sorry, dP is given.

172
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,510
So we have an assumption
about what that rate is right

173
00:10:41,510 --> 00:10:47,680
so dP is taken out as
well as a constant.

174
00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:52,960
And we, again, integrate
from 0 through L. And sorry,

175
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:54,140
and theta is also constant.

176
00:10:54,140 --> 00:10:54,640
Right?

177
00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:56,600
So we can take that out.

178
00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,230
And we have r squared dr.

179
00:11:00,230 --> 00:11:03,220
So now it looks a
lot simpler, and we

180
00:11:03,220 --> 00:11:06,340
can do the simple integral.

181
00:11:06,340 --> 00:11:06,840
Right?

182
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,030
Integral of r dr is
r squared over 2.

183
00:11:09,030 --> 00:11:11,640
Integral of r squared
is r cubed over 3.

184
00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,860
So we can substitute that in.

185
00:11:16,450 --> 00:11:25,520
So we have Pc theta
over 2 times r squared--

186
00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,310
and r squared goes from 0 to L--

187
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:37,540
minus dP theta over 3.

188
00:11:37,540 --> 00:11:46,420
And we have r cubed
going from 0 to L.

189
00:11:46,420 --> 00:11:52,750
And now we just simplify things,
and we compute the going from 0

190
00:11:52,750 --> 00:11:54,460
to L on both sides.

191
00:11:54,460 --> 00:12:04,940
So we are left with Pc theta
over 2 times L squared.

192
00:12:04,940 --> 00:12:08,510
When these ranges are 0, this
term is 0, and that term is 0.

193
00:12:08,510 --> 00:12:12,160
So all that matters is plugging
in-- substituting L for r.

194
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:12,890
Right?

195
00:12:12,890 --> 00:12:15,510
And the terms of minus 0 are 0.

196
00:12:15,510 --> 00:12:17,710
So we don't need to write them.

197
00:12:21,730 --> 00:12:27,010
dP theta over 3 L cubed--

198
00:12:33,702 --> 00:12:40,340
and just collecting terms,
the ones that look similar--

199
00:12:40,340 --> 00:12:47,983
Pc/2 minus dP L/3.

200
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,420
OK, so this is the
population in the corridor.

201
00:12:59,550 --> 00:13:02,560
And it's a function of the
properties of the corridor.

202
00:13:02,560 --> 00:13:03,060
Right?

203
00:13:03,060 --> 00:13:06,700
So if the corridor
is longer, then we

204
00:13:06,700 --> 00:13:09,160
have a higher population.

205
00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,885
If the angle of the corridor
gets wider [INAUDIBLE]

206
00:13:11,885 --> 00:13:13,010
population in the corridor.

207
00:13:13,010 --> 00:13:14,470
That also makes sense.

208
00:13:14,470 --> 00:13:17,905
And then it also depends on the
population of the city center--

209
00:13:17,905 --> 00:13:20,830
the higher it is, the bigger
the population in the center.

210
00:13:20,830 --> 00:13:24,760
And it depends on the rate at
which the population decreases

211
00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:26,320
from the center--

212
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,117
the smaller the
rate of decrease,

213
00:13:28,117 --> 00:13:29,200
the larger the population.

214
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:30,075
Right?

215
00:13:30,075 --> 00:13:30,950
Does that make sense?

216
00:13:35,340 --> 00:13:39,000
OK, and now, in terms
of peak passenger flow,

217
00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:44,880
we can look at units, but we'll
have to add some assumptions.

218
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:49,252
So actually, I
think, at this point,

219
00:13:49,252 --> 00:13:50,960
I can probably stop
the math on the board

220
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:52,480
and just go straight to it.

221
00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,435
So this is the modeling part.

222
00:13:56,435 --> 00:13:58,810
And now we're just going to
make some assumptions about--

223
00:13:58,810 --> 00:14:02,200
given that the population in the
corridor and some assumptions

224
00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,390
about what L and
theta and Pc and dP

225
00:14:04,390 --> 00:14:10,150
are and some assumptions about
the share of those people that

226
00:14:10,150 --> 00:14:15,750
would take transit, we'll look
at what the peak passenger

227
00:14:15,750 --> 00:14:16,360
flow is.

228
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,090
So let's go straight to it.

229
00:14:18,090 --> 00:14:19,960
Here we have the
variables that I

230
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,890
defined on the board and
some additional ones.

231
00:14:22,890 --> 00:14:24,640
We have t, c, m, and p.

232
00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:25,140
Right?

233
00:14:25,140 --> 00:14:28,422
So t is the number of one-way
trips per person per day.

234
00:14:28,422 --> 00:14:29,880
We're going to have
to assume this.

235
00:14:32,580 --> 00:14:35,960
c is the share of trips
that are inbound to the CBD,

236
00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:37,440
as opposed to going outbound.

237
00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:37,940
Right?

238
00:14:37,940 --> 00:14:43,260
So it's what
percentage go inbound.

239
00:14:43,260 --> 00:14:46,260
m is the transit market
share for CBD-bound trips.

240
00:14:46,260 --> 00:14:49,230
So some people will take
cars or other modes.

241
00:14:49,230 --> 00:14:52,620
And we want to have some
assumption about what

242
00:14:52,620 --> 00:14:57,330
percent of people that
are going into the CBD

243
00:14:57,330 --> 00:15:00,840
will take transit, as
opposed to other modes.

244
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:01,890
So that's m.

245
00:15:01,890 --> 00:15:05,130
And p is the share of CBD-bound
transit trips in the peak hour.

246
00:15:05,130 --> 00:15:06,720
So we want the peak hour flow.

247
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,754
And maybe we don't
want the whole day.

248
00:15:09,754 --> 00:15:10,920
We just want peak hour flow.

249
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:12,940
So there's going to be
some percentage of that.

250
00:15:12,940 --> 00:15:17,520
So here you have
the same equations

251
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,200
that I have on the board.

252
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,740
And the peak
passenger flow is what

253
00:15:22,740 --> 00:15:26,100
we have there, which is the
population in the corridor

254
00:15:26,100 --> 00:15:28,320
multiplied by our four
assumptions, our four

255
00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,600
factors that are
going to convert

256
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,550
the population in
the whole corridor

257
00:15:32,550 --> 00:15:37,110
to what percent of people are
going to go into the CBD taking

258
00:15:37,110 --> 00:15:38,250
transit.

259
00:15:38,250 --> 00:15:42,090
Again, this is a very
simple, theoretical exercise,

260
00:15:42,090 --> 00:15:44,040
but it could be
useful at some point.

261
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,610
And we'll just plug
in for two examples.

262
00:15:49,610 --> 00:15:51,500
We have two scenarios
here-- one where

263
00:15:51,500 --> 00:15:54,830
the population density in the
CBD is 10,000 and another one

264
00:15:54,830 --> 00:15:56,240
where it's 20,000.

265
00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,290
For reference, in New York
City, the population density

266
00:16:00,290 --> 00:16:03,500
is about 28,000.

267
00:16:03,500 --> 00:16:08,840
So these are not as high
as those very dense cities.

268
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,334
AUDIENCE: But like what
is 10,000 [INAUDIBLE]??

269
00:16:11,334 --> 00:16:13,500
PROFESSOR: Depends how--
again, it's the same thing.

270
00:16:13,500 --> 00:16:15,900
Like it depends how
far you go and what

271
00:16:15,900 --> 00:16:17,040
you define as the center.

272
00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,220
But here are some numbers.

273
00:16:20,220 --> 00:16:21,420
This could be some city.

274
00:16:21,420 --> 00:16:21,920
Right?

275
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:27,270
These are typical
of some cities.

276
00:16:27,270 --> 00:16:30,330
So here we have some
decreases and the rate

277
00:16:30,330 --> 00:16:33,270
of decrease in the population
from the center going out.

278
00:16:33,270 --> 00:16:38,706
We're assuming a 40-degree
angle for the shape of this.

279
00:16:38,706 --> 00:16:40,080
If you have a
city, you know, you

280
00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,690
have several lines
going in radially.

281
00:16:42,690 --> 00:16:45,600
This transit corridor serves
about a 40-degree angle.

282
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:47,100
So--

283
00:16:47,100 --> 00:16:49,452
AUDIENCE: Is that--
that seems like a lot.

284
00:16:49,452 --> 00:16:50,410
PROFESSOR: It is a lot.

285
00:16:50,410 --> 00:16:51,620
AUDIENCE: Like maybe
a little too much.

286
00:16:51,620 --> 00:16:52,730
PROFESSOR: Well, it
depends how many--

287
00:16:52,730 --> 00:16:55,063
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 40
degrees like in the inner part,

288
00:16:55,063 --> 00:16:57,495
but, you know, 40 degrees
you go [INAUDIBLE] miles out.

289
00:16:57,495 --> 00:17:00,317
Now you're already making
a [INAUDIBLE] arch.

290
00:17:00,317 --> 00:17:02,150
PROFESSOR: At the end,
it sounds like a lot,

291
00:17:02,150 --> 00:17:03,608
but, at the beginning,
not so much.

292
00:17:03,608 --> 00:17:09,569
If you think of a city,
you know, and you have--

293
00:17:09,569 --> 00:17:10,974
these are 90 degree angles.

294
00:17:10,974 --> 00:17:12,390
Right, and you add
two more lines.

295
00:17:12,390 --> 00:17:13,390
That's 45.

296
00:17:13,390 --> 00:17:17,089
So we're how many lines
would you have in a city?

297
00:17:17,089 --> 00:17:18,650
And it sort-- right?

298
00:17:18,650 --> 00:17:22,069
So it's not that unrealistic
to think of some line

299
00:17:22,069 --> 00:17:26,599
with a 40-degree angle coming
into the CBD from outside.

300
00:17:26,599 --> 00:17:31,770
And we're assuming a
10-mile length and factors--

301
00:17:31,770 --> 00:17:37,730
so here we have 2.5,
0.2, 0.5, and 0.25.

302
00:17:37,730 --> 00:17:41,000
So that's the assumptions
for the different constants

303
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:45,590
to convert the whole population
into the number of people

304
00:17:45,590 --> 00:17:49,250
going inbound in the
morning rush taking transit.

305
00:17:49,250 --> 00:17:51,590
All right, so if
we plug that in,

306
00:17:51,590 --> 00:17:56,150
we get a required capacity of
10,000 in the first scenario

307
00:17:56,150 --> 00:17:57,860
and 30,000 in the
other scenario.

308
00:17:57,860 --> 00:18:00,180
And then from that,
one could say, well,

309
00:18:00,180 --> 00:18:04,250
can I have a bus system
serving 10,000 people per hour?

310
00:18:04,250 --> 00:18:07,820
Or can I have a bus
system or a rail system

311
00:18:07,820 --> 00:18:10,742
serving 30,000 people per hour.

312
00:18:10,742 --> 00:18:13,330
That's accommodating a
flow, which this is, again,

313
00:18:13,330 --> 00:18:14,930
a back-of-the-napkin
calculation,

314
00:18:14,930 --> 00:18:19,190
but it gives you an idea of,
based on the characteristics

315
00:18:19,190 --> 00:18:22,440
of some city, what
we would need.

316
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,840
So let's look at some
theoretical capacities now.

317
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:30,580
So in this slide, we
are looking at kind

318
00:18:30,580 --> 00:18:35,870
of high-end, upper bounds
almost on these modes.

319
00:18:35,870 --> 00:18:38,300
So for rail, let's
assume a very long train,

320
00:18:38,300 --> 00:18:42,830
which is 10 cars long, and it's
packed with 200 people per car.

321
00:18:42,830 --> 00:18:45,490
And it runs at a high
frequency, every two minutes.

322
00:18:45,490 --> 00:18:47,740
That gives you 60,000
passengers per hour.

323
00:18:47,740 --> 00:18:50,830
So that's about as
much as a metro system

324
00:18:50,830 --> 00:18:55,870
can provide in terms of
capacity or a line, metro

325
00:18:55,870 --> 00:18:57,732
line, a single metro line.

326
00:18:57,732 --> 00:19:03,110
If we look at bus, so a
full bus, 70 passengers,

327
00:19:03,110 --> 00:19:04,420
that's quite packed.

328
00:19:04,420 --> 00:19:06,340
You could run, if you
have multiple bays,

329
00:19:06,340 --> 00:19:07,930
you could run
30-second headways.

330
00:19:07,930 --> 00:19:11,950
So if you see, BRT corridors
have capacity to do that.

331
00:19:11,950 --> 00:19:15,340
Obviously, if they are queuing
up to serve a single stop,

332
00:19:15,340 --> 00:19:16,720
that could not happen.

333
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,660
But if you have multiple
bays, that can happen.

334
00:19:19,660 --> 00:19:24,320
So based on that assumption,
you can get 8,400.

335
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,920
All right, so that's
pushing the limits of bus.

336
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,380
BRT-- BRT vehicles are longer.

337
00:19:30,380 --> 00:19:32,140
So you might fit
200 people in one

338
00:19:32,140 --> 00:19:35,890
of these double-articulated
vehicles.

339
00:19:35,890 --> 00:19:41,230
You might have even 20-second
headways with good facilities.

340
00:19:41,230 --> 00:19:44,050
That gives you 36,000
passengers per hour, again,

341
00:19:44,050 --> 00:19:45,730
pushing the limits here.

342
00:19:45,730 --> 00:19:48,460
Light rail, I have
to say that I'm

343
00:19:48,460 --> 00:19:50,426
assuming a two-car
train here, but we

344
00:19:50,426 --> 00:19:51,550
could have three-car train.

345
00:19:51,550 --> 00:19:53,008
So maybe I'm not
pushing the limits

346
00:19:53,008 --> 00:19:54,890
as much on light rail here.

347
00:19:54,890 --> 00:19:58,120
But based on a two-car train
assumption and 150 passengers

348
00:19:58,120 --> 00:20:01,420
per car, which is quite a
bit for a light rail car,

349
00:20:01,420 --> 00:20:03,940
and assuming one-minute
headway, that's

350
00:20:03,940 --> 00:20:05,320
18,000 passengers per hour.

351
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:05,820
Right?

352
00:20:05,820 --> 00:20:07,430
So you can compare these.

353
00:20:07,430 --> 00:20:09,520
And again, these are all
kind of upper bounds.

354
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,580
Maybe light rail can be
pushed a little higher.

355
00:20:12,580 --> 00:20:16,960
But it gives you an idea of what
the theoretical capacities are.

356
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,300
So now we have this
back-of-the-envelope

357
00:20:19,300 --> 00:20:20,710
calculation--

358
00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:22,780
10,000, 30,000.

359
00:20:22,780 --> 00:20:25,930
And what would we
need for 10,000?

360
00:20:25,930 --> 00:20:30,760
Could we serve that
10,000 demand with a bus?

361
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,530
Probably not.

362
00:20:32,530 --> 00:20:34,960
Do we need rail,
BRT, or light rail?

363
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:35,620
Probably so.

364
00:20:35,620 --> 00:20:37,110
So it gives you an idea.

365
00:20:37,110 --> 00:20:39,070
And if it's the 30,000
example, well, it

366
00:20:39,070 --> 00:20:41,500
looks like we're
going to need rail.

367
00:20:41,500 --> 00:20:42,400
Right?

368
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,366
Because BRT is kind of--

369
00:20:45,366 --> 00:20:46,990
you're getting to
the high end of that.

370
00:20:46,990 --> 00:20:50,280
So we're probably going
to need rail for that.

371
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,980
OK, and now let's look at
what happens here in Boston.

372
00:20:52,980 --> 00:20:56,070
So it's much lower
here, nowhere near

373
00:20:56,070 --> 00:20:58,400
the theoretical
capacities, right,

374
00:20:58,400 --> 00:20:59,850
that we're talking about.

375
00:20:59,850 --> 00:21:02,790
These are peak-hour volumes
for the different lines.

376
00:21:02,790 --> 00:21:06,570
So if we look at the Red Line,
which is the most crowded line,

377
00:21:06,570 --> 00:21:09,160
in the Cambridge section,
which is the most crowded,

378
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,920
especially between Central
Square and MIT-- actually,

379
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,970
that's the highest
point on the system--

380
00:21:14,970 --> 00:21:19,740
we have almost 10,000 people
per hour, passengers per hour.

381
00:21:19,740 --> 00:21:22,963
AUDIENCE: We saw in
a different course--

382
00:21:22,963 --> 00:21:24,504
one of the people
from the T who came

383
00:21:24,504 --> 00:21:26,700
who was a graduate
of the MST program

384
00:21:26,700 --> 00:21:28,457
showed slightly higher
numbers than that.

385
00:21:28,457 --> 00:21:30,665
PROFESSOR: Yeah, so these
numbers are a little dated.

386
00:21:30,665 --> 00:21:33,690
And it depends on how
you define the peak hour.

387
00:21:33,690 --> 00:21:37,020
And you know, I could show
you the peak 15 minutes,

388
00:21:37,020 --> 00:21:39,100
and that would be higher
than this, for example.

389
00:21:39,100 --> 00:21:42,170
So if you look at the peak--

390
00:21:42,170 --> 00:21:45,610
yeah, like the peak of the peak,
it's even higher than this.

391
00:21:45,610 --> 00:21:49,316
But it still is the case that
these are not approaching

392
00:21:49,316 --> 00:21:50,440
the theoretical capacities.

393
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,445
And that's because we
don't have, you know,

394
00:21:52,445 --> 00:21:57,030
two-minute headways and
10-car trains or yeah.

395
00:21:57,030 --> 00:22:01,270
So right, so the Orange Line,
we have two sections here,

396
00:22:01,270 --> 00:22:04,920
the north and the
southwest, similar numbers.

397
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,395
Blue Line is slightly lower.

398
00:22:06,395 --> 00:22:11,300
On the Green Line, the branches
do about, you know, 1,800,

399
00:22:11,300 --> 00:22:13,050
less than 2,000 each.

400
00:22:13,050 --> 00:22:17,570
So we're looking at a much
lower number than the light rail

401
00:22:17,570 --> 00:22:20,620
theoretical capacity.

402
00:22:20,620 --> 00:22:23,510
And in the central subway
where all these branches merge,

403
00:22:23,510 --> 00:22:27,955
we get a much higher demand,
but it's still lower.

404
00:22:27,955 --> 00:22:30,080
Again, these vehicles are
not running every minute.

405
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:35,300
And in some cases, they
are, but not consistently.

406
00:22:35,300 --> 00:22:40,114
And we don't fill
all the vehicles,

407
00:22:40,114 --> 00:22:42,740
you know, to crush
load for a whole hour.

408
00:22:42,740 --> 00:22:43,820
Right?

409
00:22:43,820 --> 00:22:46,520
So we're not getting
that capacity.

410
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,300
We're not delivering
that capacity.

411
00:22:48,300 --> 00:22:49,841
So it gives you an
idea where we are.

412
00:22:49,841 --> 00:22:52,650
If you've used the
system here in Boston,

413
00:22:52,650 --> 00:22:56,520
you might relate taking
the train at peak hour

414
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,800
to what these numbers
look like and think

415
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,910
about what it would take to
increase capacity in terms

416
00:23:02,910 --> 00:23:07,140
of more cars or a
higher demand spread

417
00:23:07,140 --> 00:23:10,650
over a longer peak
and things like that.

418
00:23:10,650 --> 00:23:14,250
OK, now let's look at
worldwide urban rail systems.

419
00:23:14,250 --> 00:23:17,960
This is metro, and I have
grouped it by continent.

420
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:22,560
And it starts sort
of before the 1900s.

421
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:29,730
And you can see the earlier
systems started in Europe--

422
00:23:29,730 --> 00:23:32,590
London, Budapest.

423
00:23:32,590 --> 00:23:33,870
Right?

424
00:23:33,870 --> 00:23:36,540
And then North America
followed closely after that.

425
00:23:36,540 --> 00:23:40,200
Boston takes the prize
for the first subway.

426
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:41,300
That's the Green Line.

427
00:23:41,300 --> 00:23:43,230
And even though we call
it light rail here,

428
00:23:43,230 --> 00:23:46,480
we're calling it
metro in the slide.

429
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,320
So we have a few starts
in North America,

430
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:53,362
and it sort of falls
flat in 1920s and 1930s.

431
00:23:53,362 --> 00:23:54,570
And then it takes off again--

432
00:23:54,570 --> 00:23:56,300
1960s all the up.

433
00:23:56,300 --> 00:23:57,870
It keeps increasing.

434
00:23:57,870 --> 00:23:59,470
Asia was a little
slower to start,

435
00:23:59,470 --> 00:24:01,980
but it's going up really fast.

436
00:24:01,980 --> 00:24:04,230
China is building
a lot of metro.

437
00:24:04,230 --> 00:24:08,160
Africa, I think it has
two systems right now.

438
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,860
And there are no systems that
I am aware of in Australia,

439
00:24:10,860 --> 00:24:13,050
but they are building
one that should

440
00:24:13,050 --> 00:24:16,080
start before the end of
this decade in Sydney.

441
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,960
So they're going
forward with that.

442
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,240
So this is, you know--

443
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,040
you can see that
we're building metro

444
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,616
and that it goes
together with what

445
00:24:24,616 --> 00:24:25,740
we said on the first class.

446
00:24:25,740 --> 00:24:27,130
Population is increasing.

447
00:24:27,130 --> 00:24:29,100
And especially urban
population is increasing.

448
00:24:29,100 --> 00:24:32,610
People are moving away from
rural areas into cities.

449
00:24:32,610 --> 00:24:36,290
The required capacities to
have agglomeration benefits

450
00:24:36,290 --> 00:24:40,230
and avoid traffic and
air pollution problems

451
00:24:40,230 --> 00:24:45,390
is requiring higher density,
higher flow systems like metro.

452
00:24:45,390 --> 00:24:46,290
Questions?

453
00:24:46,290 --> 00:24:48,615
AUDIENCE: So you've got
Australia has some very

454
00:24:48,615 --> 00:24:50,490
dense cities of course.

455
00:24:50,490 --> 00:24:51,670
How do they move people in?

456
00:24:51,670 --> 00:24:53,604
Like do they have BRT systems?

457
00:24:53,604 --> 00:24:55,020
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
so they have BRT.

458
00:24:55,020 --> 00:24:56,280
They have light rail.

459
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,310
AUDIENCE: Melbourne has
the longest light rail

460
00:24:58,310 --> 00:24:59,500
network in the world.

461
00:24:59,500 --> 00:25:01,880
PROFESSOR: Yeah, and they
have pretty good BRT.

462
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,309
AUDIENCE: The bulk of Melbourne
is electric commuter trains

463
00:25:06,309 --> 00:25:08,225
that operate at sort of
subway-level headways.

464
00:25:08,225 --> 00:25:09,939
So it wouldn't be
included in your--

465
00:25:09,939 --> 00:25:11,980
PROFESSOR: So yeah, we're
not counting them here.

466
00:25:11,980 --> 00:25:15,750
And so good point,
it's hard to--

467
00:25:15,750 --> 00:25:18,960
there are many ways of
accounting for systems here.

468
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,095
Sometimes, you know--

469
00:25:21,095 --> 00:25:23,119
AUDIENCE: Commuter
rail and heavy rail.

470
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:24,660
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
that might be mixed.

471
00:25:24,660 --> 00:25:26,700
Or do they count
those as two or as one

472
00:25:26,700 --> 00:25:28,950
if there are different
systems in one city?

473
00:25:28,950 --> 00:25:32,340
I've tried here to count
each city as one system,

474
00:25:32,340 --> 00:25:34,150
even if there are
multiple systems.

475
00:25:34,150 --> 00:25:39,240
So for example, I'm not
counting the Tube in London

476
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,880
and Docklands Light
Railway as two systems.

477
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,184
I'm counting them as one.

478
00:25:43,184 --> 00:25:44,850
But some people would
count them as two.

479
00:25:44,850 --> 00:25:47,610
So there is some
arbitrary choice

480
00:25:47,610 --> 00:25:50,370
to be made here in
accounting, but it gives you

481
00:25:50,370 --> 00:25:52,860
an idea of what the trends
are and how we are moving

482
00:25:52,860 --> 00:25:55,670
and how it started and
where we are right now.

483
00:25:55,670 --> 00:25:58,932
Here's light rail, light
rail and streetcar.

484
00:25:58,932 --> 00:26:00,390
So if we only looked
at light rail,

485
00:26:00,390 --> 00:26:01,250
it wouldn't look like this.

486
00:26:01,250 --> 00:26:02,750
This includes
streetcars, and that's

487
00:26:02,750 --> 00:26:11,750
why we start so early before
the 1900s in Europe and Asia

488
00:26:11,750 --> 00:26:12,860
as well.

489
00:26:12,860 --> 00:26:15,860
And then North America really
didn't follow until much

490
00:26:15,860 --> 00:26:17,070
more recently.

491
00:26:17,070 --> 00:26:20,370
AUDIENCE: Well, North America,
it's like [INAUDIBLE]..

492
00:26:20,370 --> 00:26:23,027
If you include North America,
every city had streetcars.

493
00:26:23,027 --> 00:26:25,235
PROFESSOR: Yeah, but they're
not operating right now.

494
00:26:25,235 --> 00:26:25,730
[INTERPOSING VOICES]

495
00:26:25,730 --> 00:26:27,210
PROFESSOR: Yeah, but they're
not currently operating.

496
00:26:27,210 --> 00:26:27,830
AUDIENCE: You would
see [INAUDIBLE]..

497
00:26:27,830 --> 00:26:29,210
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
so that's right.

498
00:26:29,210 --> 00:26:30,420
So that's another good point.

499
00:26:30,420 --> 00:26:32,810
So if we included things
that were operating

500
00:26:32,810 --> 00:26:35,510
and no longer dropped,
then this graph would go up

501
00:26:35,510 --> 00:26:36,140
and then down.

502
00:26:36,140 --> 00:26:37,580
And these are
based on statistics

503
00:26:37,580 --> 00:26:40,850
of currently-operating systems
that started at some point

504
00:26:40,850 --> 00:26:41,670
in the past.

505
00:26:41,670 --> 00:26:42,170
Right?

506
00:26:42,170 --> 00:26:44,400
So that's a good point.

507
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,320
Thank you for bringing that up.

508
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:51,980
And we see here Africa,
Oceania, so Australia--

509
00:26:51,980 --> 00:26:56,000
and let's see.

510
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,000
Yeah, Africa, South
America, and Australia

511
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,140
don't have many systems.

512
00:27:00,140 --> 00:27:00,640
Right?

513
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:05,990
So mainly, we have
[INAUDIBLE] in Asia,

514
00:27:05,990 --> 00:27:08,400
and increasingly so
in North America,

515
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,060
but not at the same
level as in Asia.

516
00:27:11,060 --> 00:27:15,360
Obviously, that has to do
with the size of the cities

517
00:27:15,360 --> 00:27:17,370
and the number of
large cities as well.

518
00:27:17,370 --> 00:27:24,210
So OK, capital costs, so
these are based, once more,

519
00:27:24,210 --> 00:27:28,570
on the NTD numbers, the
National Transit Database.

520
00:27:28,570 --> 00:27:33,560
These are 2013 numbers that were
published in the 2015 APTA Fact

521
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:34,100
Book.

522
00:27:34,100 --> 00:27:37,260
And you can download
that on Stellar

523
00:27:37,260 --> 00:27:39,600
if you want to look
at these in detail.

524
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,740
So $18.2 billion was
spent in capital costs,

525
00:27:43,740 --> 00:27:46,600
and we're going to look at
how that cost was distributed.

526
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,320
So if we look at by type,
about a quarter of that

527
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,430
was spent on purchasing vehicles
or rehauling old vehicles

528
00:27:53,430 --> 00:27:56,010
for their midlife repair.

529
00:27:56,010 --> 00:28:00,480
And about 60% was spent on
infrastructure and facilities.

530
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:05,130
All right, so that could include
new rail lines or extensions,

531
00:28:05,130 --> 00:28:11,880
repairs of those, bus stops,
maintenance facilities, right,

532
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:13,590
offices, things like that.

533
00:28:13,590 --> 00:28:17,940
And then about 15%, 16%
was spent on other things.

534
00:28:17,940 --> 00:28:23,470
Those other things could be
AFC systems, other things that

535
00:28:23,470 --> 00:28:24,860
are not vehicles or facilities.

536
00:28:24,860 --> 00:28:25,360
Right?

537
00:28:25,360 --> 00:28:28,540
So OK, by mode,
about a quarter was

538
00:28:28,540 --> 00:28:32,980
spent on bus projects, about
35% on heavy rail projects,

539
00:28:32,980 --> 00:28:36,310
and then less, a little less,
on commuter rail and light rail,

540
00:28:36,310 --> 00:28:38,500
and then 5% in other modes.

541
00:28:38,500 --> 00:28:41,870
And that's mostly paratransit
or demand responsive, as they

542
00:28:41,870 --> 00:28:44,530
[INAUDIBLE] APTA Fact Book.

543
00:28:44,530 --> 00:28:51,150
So it gives you an idea of
how the US, on any given year,

544
00:28:51,150 --> 00:28:54,990
distributes the
capital expenditures.

545
00:28:54,990 --> 00:28:59,210
You might think that,
from year to year,

546
00:28:59,210 --> 00:29:03,290
these costs vary a lot because
capital investments are

547
00:29:03,290 --> 00:29:03,870
very lumpy.

548
00:29:03,870 --> 00:29:04,370
Right?

549
00:29:04,370 --> 00:29:05,630
You don't have them,
and, all of a sudden,

550
00:29:05,630 --> 00:29:07,509
you invest a lot of
money into a system.

551
00:29:07,509 --> 00:29:09,050
But because there
are so many cities,

552
00:29:09,050 --> 00:29:12,110
they don't actually
vary that much.

553
00:29:12,110 --> 00:29:14,840
And the other reason
that doesn't happen

554
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:19,030
is because a lot of the
expenditures are gradual.

555
00:29:19,030 --> 00:29:21,880
So it takes several
years to build new lines.

556
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:25,360
So they are distributed
over several years,

557
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,740
instead of all at once.

558
00:29:29,610 --> 00:29:32,160
And here we have the
breakdown by mode and type

559
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:32,940
at the same time.

560
00:29:32,940 --> 00:29:38,070
So about-- the key takeaway
here is so $4.5 billion

561
00:29:38,070 --> 00:29:40,980
was spent on bus projects.

562
00:29:40,980 --> 00:29:43,950
And about half of that was
on vehicles and about half

563
00:29:43,950 --> 00:29:47,310
was on facilities, the
repair facilities, bus stops,

564
00:29:47,310 --> 00:29:49,590
things of that nature.

565
00:29:49,590 --> 00:29:53,610
When we look at rail, the
percent spent on vehicles

566
00:29:53,610 --> 00:29:54,400
is much lower.

567
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,360
It's about 10% to 20%,
7% to 20% in this case,

568
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,720
depending on the
specific rail mode.

569
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,842
And closer to 90% is spent on
infrastructure and facilities.

570
00:30:04,842 --> 00:30:05,550
That makes sense.

571
00:30:05,550 --> 00:30:06,050
Right?

572
00:30:06,050 --> 00:30:07,350
You have to lay--

573
00:30:07,350 --> 00:30:08,700
you have to sort of put rail.

574
00:30:08,700 --> 00:30:11,490
You have to build stations.

575
00:30:11,490 --> 00:30:13,510
The maintenance yards
are more expensive.

576
00:30:13,510 --> 00:30:16,320
So these are bigger projects.

577
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:21,010
To the extent that the
right of way is a subway,

578
00:30:21,010 --> 00:30:22,030
then you have to dig.

579
00:30:22,030 --> 00:30:24,900
And so it's very expensive.

580
00:30:24,900 --> 00:30:29,160
And here you have the total
expenditure, capital cost

581
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:29,810
by mode.

582
00:30:29,810 --> 00:30:34,170
And so 4.5 on bus, 6.2 on
heavy rail, 3 on commuter rail,

583
00:30:34,170 --> 00:30:35,250
3.5 on light rail.

584
00:30:38,016 --> 00:30:40,640
OK, and now focusing on
infrastructure costs,

585
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,715
so what drives the
infrastructure costs?

586
00:30:44,715 --> 00:30:46,340
First, the type of
construction, right,

587
00:30:46,340 --> 00:30:49,190
so if we look at
heavy rail, you could

588
00:30:49,190 --> 00:30:52,430
build at grade, so
leveled on the street

589
00:30:52,430 --> 00:30:55,430
or on sort of new
lands that you don't

590
00:30:55,430 --> 00:30:58,100
have to acquire from anyone.

591
00:30:58,100 --> 00:30:59,600
That's the least expensive.

592
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:00,736
Then you move to elevated.

593
00:31:00,736 --> 00:31:02,360
If you have to go
over streets, and you

594
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:07,100
have an elevated section, that's
the second most expensive.

595
00:31:07,100 --> 00:31:09,370
And then subway tends to
be the most expensive.

596
00:31:09,370 --> 00:31:11,390
And there are two
ways of doing that.

597
00:31:11,390 --> 00:31:12,450
There's cut and cover.

598
00:31:12,450 --> 00:31:13,700
So that's a shallow tunnel.

599
00:31:13,700 --> 00:31:14,900
You dig a hole.

600
00:31:14,900 --> 00:31:18,140
You put the rail lines, and then
you build a roof on top of it,

601
00:31:18,140 --> 00:31:20,150
and cars drive over it.

602
00:31:20,150 --> 00:31:21,470
That's shallow tunnel.

603
00:31:21,470 --> 00:31:24,200
And then there's deep tunnel,
which is the most expensive.

604
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,840
That tends to be with a
tunnel boring machine.

605
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:31,650
So you get these huge
machines that drill the hole.

606
00:31:31,650 --> 00:31:35,300
They're very fun to
learn about and look it.

607
00:31:35,300 --> 00:31:37,880
I encourage you to YouTube them.

608
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,450
And they are usually
built for the project.

609
00:31:41,450 --> 00:31:43,730
And when they
finish digging, they

610
00:31:43,730 --> 00:31:45,350
are sort of taken off course.

611
00:31:45,350 --> 00:31:49,340
And they sort of remain
interred at the level.

612
00:31:49,340 --> 00:31:52,790
So they're kind of used
once, and there you go.

613
00:31:52,790 --> 00:31:57,860
So London has used a lot of
these for their very deep Tube.

614
00:31:57,860 --> 00:32:00,563
And yeah, you should
look at these on YouTube.

615
00:32:00,563 --> 00:32:02,354
AUDIENCE: In New York,
it's kind of common.

616
00:32:02,354 --> 00:32:04,074
Right?

617
00:32:04,074 --> 00:32:04,990
PROFESSOR: Yeah, yeah.

618
00:32:04,990 --> 00:32:06,240
AUDIENCE: It basically
goes along the avenues.

619
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,131
PROFESSOR: Yeah, so in
London, we have both.

620
00:32:08,131 --> 00:32:08,630
Right?

621
00:32:08,630 --> 00:32:11,294
So the earlier lines like
the Central Line and the--

622
00:32:11,294 --> 00:32:12,960
AUDIENCE: Yeah, the
Circle and District.

623
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:13,940
PROFESSOR: The Circle
and District Lines

624
00:32:13,940 --> 00:32:15,770
are definitely cut and cover.

625
00:32:15,770 --> 00:32:17,731
And then the Silver
Line is very deep.

626
00:32:17,731 --> 00:32:18,230
Right?

627
00:32:18,230 --> 00:32:20,530
And so that's a
tunnel boring machine.

628
00:32:20,530 --> 00:32:22,530
AUDIENCE: Can you give a
sense of the difference

629
00:32:22,530 --> 00:32:27,536
between let's say at grade,
elevated, and shallow and deep?

630
00:32:27,536 --> 00:32:29,660
PROFESSOR: Maybe I should
have shown some pictures.

631
00:32:29,660 --> 00:32:32,075
But at grade is just
at street level.

632
00:32:32,075 --> 00:32:34,357
AUDIENCE: No, I know, but
like the difference in cost.

633
00:32:34,357 --> 00:32:34,940
PROFESSOR: Oh.

634
00:32:34,940 --> 00:32:36,260
AUDIENCE: Like cost per mile.

635
00:32:36,260 --> 00:32:37,550
PROFESSOR: Oh, I'll
give some examples

636
00:32:37,550 --> 00:32:38,570
in the next few slides.

637
00:32:38,570 --> 00:32:40,370
Yeah, that's a good segue.

638
00:32:40,370 --> 00:32:43,320
So the other key factors are
land acquisition and clearance.

639
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,140
So if you're
building a new line,

640
00:32:45,140 --> 00:32:48,830
and you have to use eminent
domain and sort of buy property

641
00:32:48,830 --> 00:32:51,710
from people who own them,
who own that property,

642
00:32:51,710 --> 00:32:55,010
to build your new line,
that costs some money.

643
00:32:55,010 --> 00:32:58,670
Also, the number, size,
complexity, and length

644
00:32:58,670 --> 00:32:59,840
of the stations--

645
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,170
so station design is
a key component here

646
00:33:03,170 --> 00:33:04,730
and the complexity
of the system.

647
00:33:04,730 --> 00:33:05,930
Is this an independent line?

648
00:33:05,930 --> 00:33:08,250
Or are there many
points of transfer?

649
00:33:08,250 --> 00:33:11,990
And how do you coordinate that?

650
00:33:11,990 --> 00:33:14,750
During construction, do
you have to keep operating

651
00:33:14,750 --> 00:33:15,950
some parts of the line?

652
00:33:15,950 --> 00:33:17,630
How do you manage that?

653
00:33:17,630 --> 00:33:21,470
So if you look at, for
example, the repair

654
00:33:21,470 --> 00:33:25,190
of the bridge, the Longfellow
Bridge here in Boston,

655
00:33:25,190 --> 00:33:28,760
we wanted to do that with rail,
for the most part, running.

656
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,760
So that has increased the
costs of that project.

657
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,010
You couldn't just take the
bridge down and rebuild it.

658
00:33:34,010 --> 00:33:37,490
And we wouldn't have the
Red Line for a long time.

659
00:33:40,850 --> 00:33:44,162
OK, so here are
some typical costs.

660
00:33:44,162 --> 00:33:45,370
Here are some, four examples.

661
00:33:45,370 --> 00:33:46,390
Right?

662
00:33:46,390 --> 00:33:47,980
And they vary a lot,
but it gives you

663
00:33:47,980 --> 00:33:49,730
some idea of the
magnitude of these costs.

664
00:33:49,730 --> 00:33:54,060
So Tren Urbano was one of
the most recent systems.

665
00:33:54,060 --> 00:33:56,960
It was built in 2002 in
San Juan, Puerto Rico.

666
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,130
And it 50% at grade,
about 40% elevated,

667
00:34:00,130 --> 00:34:03,400
and 10% subway, just a small
section that was subway.

668
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,620
It cost about $2
billion to build.

669
00:34:06,620 --> 00:34:08,830
And if you divide that by
the length of the corridor,

670
00:34:08,830 --> 00:34:13,850
it comes out to $118
million per kilometer.

671
00:34:13,850 --> 00:34:14,350
Right?

672
00:34:14,350 --> 00:34:16,960
So it gives you an
idea of what it takes.

673
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,350
The MBTA Red Line in
1984, it was extended

674
00:34:20,350 --> 00:34:23,830
to Alewife from Harvard.

675
00:34:23,830 --> 00:34:27,520
And that was 5 kilometer
extension, four stations.

676
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:28,989
It was all subway.

677
00:34:28,989 --> 00:34:33,639
So it cost $0.6 billion
of $600 million.

678
00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:37,710
And that comes up to $120
million per kilometer.

679
00:34:37,710 --> 00:34:41,199
All these figures are in the
dollar numbers of the year

680
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:45,159
that they were built. They're
not adjusted for inflation.

681
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:47,340
Then we have the
Los Angeles MTA.

682
00:34:47,340 --> 00:34:50,730
That was a new system
started in the late 1980s.

683
00:34:50,730 --> 00:34:53,580
It was all subway, 7 kilometers.

684
00:34:53,580 --> 00:34:57,870
$1.2 billion comes
out to $180 million

685
00:34:57,870 --> 00:35:02,220
per kilometer, so same
range, right, or similar.

686
00:35:02,220 --> 00:35:06,070
I mean, obviously, from 120
to 180, it's 60 million.

687
00:35:06,070 --> 00:35:08,490
That's a lot of money,
but same ballpark,

688
00:35:08,490 --> 00:35:10,280
same order of magnitude.

689
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,160
WMATA was cheaper on
a unit cost basis.

690
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:19,580
It was built over several
decades, multiple phases, 100

691
00:35:19,580 --> 00:35:23,700
kilometers, so lots of stations,
lots of distance covered.

692
00:35:23,700 --> 00:35:26,340
It's a mix of subway,
elevated, and at grade.

693
00:35:26,340 --> 00:35:31,950
And it cost $6.4 billion, and
that comes out to $60 million

694
00:35:31,950 --> 00:35:32,930
per kilometer.

695
00:35:32,930 --> 00:35:34,301
So yeah.

696
00:35:34,301 --> 00:35:34,800
Question?

697
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,702
AUDIENCE: Can you say
what is WMATA again.

698
00:35:36,702 --> 00:35:38,910
PROFESSOR: WMATA is the
Washington metro, Washington,

699
00:35:38,910 --> 00:35:39,210
DC.

700
00:35:39,210 --> 00:35:39,810
AUDIENCE: Washington, DC.

701
00:35:39,810 --> 00:35:41,143
PROFESSOR: Washington, DC, yeah.

702
00:35:43,940 --> 00:35:45,440
Yeah, [INAUDIBLE].

703
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:53,910
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
So since this--

704
00:35:53,910 --> 00:35:54,933
PROFESSOR: In one year.

705
00:35:54,933 --> 00:35:55,558
AUDIENCE: Yeah.

706
00:35:55,558 --> 00:35:57,540
So since this remains
the same across years--

707
00:35:57,540 --> 00:35:58,540
PROFESSOR: More or less.

708
00:35:58,540 --> 00:36:00,590
It varies, but it
doesn't vary drastically

709
00:36:00,590 --> 00:36:02,050
is what I wanted to say.

710
00:36:02,050 --> 00:36:04,440
AUDIENCE: So would that
mean that in fact we're

711
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,605
declining the amount we spend
on transportation because this

712
00:36:07,605 --> 00:36:11,260
is not inflation adjusted?

713
00:36:11,260 --> 00:36:13,010
PROFESSOR: This is not
inflation adjusted.

714
00:36:13,010 --> 00:36:13,600
That's right.

715
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:14,570
AUDIENCE: So it's
the [INAUDIBLE]

716
00:36:14,570 --> 00:36:15,444
are declining, right?

717
00:36:15,444 --> 00:36:16,580
[INAUDIBLE]

718
00:36:16,580 --> 00:36:18,912
PROFESSOR: For heavy rail, yes.

719
00:36:18,912 --> 00:36:20,447
Yeah, maybe, yeah.

720
00:36:23,130 --> 00:36:25,040
We're building a lot of
light rail and stuff.

721
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:31,019
But there is still some
expansion or repair or--

722
00:36:31,019 --> 00:36:33,060
AUDIENCE: Does this mean
the Second Avenue subway

723
00:36:33,060 --> 00:36:35,590
extension isn't in the
same order of magnitude

724
00:36:35,590 --> 00:36:36,415
as any other--

725
00:36:36,415 --> 00:36:38,790
PROFESSOR: I'm not familiar
with the unit costs for that.

726
00:36:38,790 --> 00:36:40,650
AUDIENCE: I read it was like
$2 billion per kilometer.

727
00:36:40,650 --> 00:36:42,840
PROFESSOR: Yeah, I mean
it depends on many things.

728
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,960
So--

729
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,395
AUDIENCE: Well,
so recent lines, I

730
00:36:46,395 --> 00:36:48,846
mean Seattle was
about $1 billion per.

731
00:36:48,846 --> 00:36:51,900
And San Francisco Central
Subway was about $1 billion per.

732
00:36:51,900 --> 00:36:54,250
So modern subways
are-- the stupid GLX,

733
00:36:54,250 --> 00:36:56,210
the Tremont extension
was $500 million

734
00:36:56,210 --> 00:36:59,300
because the T can't procure
a project out of their butts,

735
00:36:59,300 --> 00:37:02,610
but it's still still
four times cheaper

736
00:37:02,610 --> 00:37:04,320
than Second Avenue subway.

737
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,742
Well, but it's also
being built at grade,

738
00:37:06,742 --> 00:37:07,950
and it gets the right of way.

739
00:37:11,582 --> 00:37:13,252
PROFESSOR: So many
factors there.

740
00:37:13,252 --> 00:37:14,460
Let's look at light rail now.

741
00:37:14,460 --> 00:37:22,480
So LA MTA, 30 kilometers at
grade, so a long distance,

742
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:23,580
but all at grade--

743
00:37:23,580 --> 00:37:27,940
$690 million, this includes
stations and vehicles.

744
00:37:27,940 --> 00:37:31,100
That comes to $23
million per kilometer.

745
00:37:31,100 --> 00:37:33,680
So you can see that these
costs are a lot lower.

746
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:38,260
A lot of that has to do with
it being at grade and also

747
00:37:38,260 --> 00:37:40,017
not being as
complex of a system.

748
00:37:40,017 --> 00:37:41,100
Yeah, you have a question.

749
00:37:41,100 --> 00:37:44,980
AUDIENCE: Yeah, are these
costs for just the parts

750
00:37:44,980 --> 00:37:49,446
that were built in the late
1980s and not over time.

751
00:37:49,446 --> 00:37:52,794
Like the most recent one
is not included in that.

752
00:37:52,794 --> 00:37:54,710
PROFESSOR: Not including
the most recent ones,

753
00:37:54,710 --> 00:37:56,620
that's correct, yeah.

754
00:37:56,620 --> 00:38:00,520
So Buffalo, 10
kilometers, but subway,

755
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:02,830
cost almost the
same, even though it

756
00:38:02,830 --> 00:38:04,030
was a third of the length.

757
00:38:04,030 --> 00:38:08,410
It comes out to $53
million per kilometer.

758
00:38:08,410 --> 00:38:10,360
Santa Clara, 30
kilometers at grade,

759
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:16,677
so very similar to LA MTA,
about $500 million, $16 million

760
00:38:16,677 --> 00:38:17,260
per kilometer.

761
00:38:17,260 --> 00:38:19,240
So you can see that,
even in similar systems,

762
00:38:19,240 --> 00:38:21,610
there are other details
that might affect cost

763
00:38:21,610 --> 00:38:24,020
significantly.

764
00:38:24,020 --> 00:38:26,680
And then Portland, mid
1980s, 24 kilometers

765
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:33,040
at grade, $214 million, about
$9 million per kilometer-- so

766
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:37,450
that was the cheapest of these
examples on a unit cost basis.

767
00:38:37,450 --> 00:38:41,200
AUDIENCE: Remind us what a
light rail subway is again.

768
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:46,020
PROFESSOR: So yeah, these
are terms that are arbitrary,

769
00:38:46,020 --> 00:38:49,810
but our stereotypical definition
that we are using here

770
00:38:49,810 --> 00:38:55,250
is a lot of it tends to
be at grade, not always.

771
00:38:55,250 --> 00:38:56,590
It could be subway.

772
00:38:56,590 --> 00:39:00,460
It tends to have electricity
from pickup lines on the top.

773
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:07,730
You might have some sections
where people board sort

774
00:39:07,730 --> 00:39:08,970
of straight from the streets.

775
00:39:08,970 --> 00:39:12,950
All right, so there is not
a special platform where--

776
00:39:12,950 --> 00:39:16,610
like a subway station where
people tap into a gate

777
00:39:16,610 --> 00:39:18,110
and move in.

778
00:39:18,110 --> 00:39:19,252
AUDIENCE: This is not that.

779
00:39:19,252 --> 00:39:20,210
PROFESSOR: Right, yeah.

780
00:39:20,210 --> 00:39:20,950
AUDIENCE: Light rail subway.

781
00:39:20,950 --> 00:39:21,620
PROFESSOR: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

782
00:39:21,620 --> 00:39:21,910
So--

783
00:39:21,910 --> 00:39:22,570
AUDIENCE: People are
walking into the--

784
00:39:22,570 --> 00:39:24,080
PROFESSOR: Yeah, so when
we look at heavy rail,

785
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,150
we're thinking about
things like the Red Line

786
00:39:26,150 --> 00:39:27,942
and the Blue Line and
the Orange Line here.

787
00:39:27,942 --> 00:39:29,316
When we look at
light rail, we're

788
00:39:29,316 --> 00:39:31,800
thinking more like streetcars
and the Green Line here

789
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,721
in Boston.

790
00:39:33,721 --> 00:39:34,220
Right?

791
00:39:34,220 --> 00:39:35,977
So the Green Line is
more like light rail.

792
00:39:35,977 --> 00:39:37,560
Even though it has
the subway portion,

793
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:42,160
it's operating like a light
rail in some part, subway part.

794
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:49,050
Yeah, but if we look
at other countries,

795
00:39:49,050 --> 00:39:51,300
some systems are
called light rail.

796
00:39:51,300 --> 00:39:54,450
Docklands Light Rail
in London, false--

797
00:39:54,450 --> 00:39:56,340
if we describe it,
we would classify it

798
00:39:56,340 --> 00:39:58,920
as heavy rail with
these descriptions.

799
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:03,150
And in Asia, we see
a lot of systems

800
00:40:03,150 --> 00:40:06,720
called light rail, which are, by
these descriptions, heavy rail.

801
00:40:06,720 --> 00:40:12,090
So the terms are
used with caution.

802
00:40:12,090 --> 00:40:17,180
OK, busways, so the South Boston
Transitway was 2 kilometers.

803
00:40:17,180 --> 00:40:22,910
That was the Silver Line tunnel,
right, cost $606 million--

804
00:40:22,910 --> 00:40:25,800
that does include the
purchase of vehicles--

805
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:30,880
and so $303, of course,
million per kilometer.

806
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:35,000
TransMilenio was 36 kilometers
at grade in the early 2000s,

807
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:39,380
$200 million, $5
million per kilometer.

808
00:40:39,380 --> 00:40:43,050
Seattle, 2 kilometer
of bus tunnel, $319--

809
00:40:43,050 --> 00:40:43,880
$160.

810
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,490
So the takeaway here is,
if you're making a tunnel,

811
00:40:46,490 --> 00:40:49,351
you can see that the first and
third examples are tunnels.

812
00:40:49,351 --> 00:40:49,850
Right?

813
00:40:49,850 --> 00:40:52,670
And they cost a lot more in
the hundreds of millions.

814
00:40:52,670 --> 00:40:55,280
And the three that are
at grade, second, fourth,

815
00:40:55,280 --> 00:41:00,440
and fifth examples, two of
them in the 36, 35 kilometer,

816
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,220
and this one a
little shorter, are

817
00:41:03,220 --> 00:41:09,746
in the two-digit, single-digit
million dollars per kilometer.

818
00:41:09,746 --> 00:41:11,329
AUDIENCE: TransMilenio,
you're talking

819
00:41:11,329 --> 00:41:14,430
about like the first, initial--

820
00:41:14,430 --> 00:41:16,470
PROFESSOR: Because
they've kept growing

821
00:41:16,470 --> 00:41:18,180
is what you're saying, right?

822
00:41:18,180 --> 00:41:19,410
I don't know--

823
00:41:19,410 --> 00:41:24,390
I don't remember what range of
years this includes exactly.

824
00:41:24,390 --> 00:41:28,950
But yeah, I'm saying,
you know, whatever

825
00:41:28,950 --> 00:41:32,590
they were sort of starting
to operate in 2001.

826
00:41:32,590 --> 00:41:34,680
Yeah.

827
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,790
And you can see here
36 kilometers at grade.

828
00:41:36,790 --> 00:41:38,890
So we could then go
look and see what

829
00:41:38,890 --> 00:41:41,200
is that 36 kilometers
at grade that they

830
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,390
built around 2001 to see.

831
00:41:43,390 --> 00:41:45,370
If they've expanded
more recently,

832
00:41:45,370 --> 00:41:46,820
that's probably
not included here.

833
00:41:46,820 --> 00:41:47,320
Yeah.

834
00:41:49,910 --> 00:41:51,590
Any other questions?

835
00:41:51,590 --> 00:41:54,920
So these are examples to give
you an idea of what it costs

836
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:56,920
or what it has cost.

837
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:03,150
OK, generic costs
for rail, so it

838
00:42:03,150 --> 00:42:05,690
costs from about
$2 to $2.5 million

839
00:42:05,690 --> 00:42:08,450
per car for a heavy rail train.

840
00:42:08,450 --> 00:42:12,320
So if you calculate what
capacity you need, and you

841
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,870
think you need a
fleet of 200 vehicles,

842
00:42:14,870 --> 00:42:17,545
you can take these numbers
and multiply by $2.5 million.

843
00:42:17,545 --> 00:42:18,920
You have some idea
of how much it

844
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,530
costs to purchase your fleet.

845
00:42:21,530 --> 00:42:31,160
Some recent-- a recent CNR,
it was a large procurement.

846
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:32,870
And that helps bring
the unit cost down.

847
00:42:32,870 --> 00:42:38,300
So 284 cars replaced Orange
and Red Line vehicles.

848
00:42:38,300 --> 00:42:42,140
Siemens in 2010, it was
about $2.3 million per car.

849
00:42:42,140 --> 00:42:45,650
That was for 94 Blue Line cars.

850
00:42:45,650 --> 00:42:50,240
Then we have Hyundai
Rotem, $2.3 million

851
00:42:50,240 --> 00:42:53,240
per car-- these are
75 commuter rail cars,

852
00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:55,590
rather than heavy rail cars.

853
00:42:55,590 --> 00:43:00,740
Breda, $2 million per car--
these are the Green Line

854
00:43:00,740 --> 00:43:02,850
cars, 95 of them.

855
00:43:02,850 --> 00:43:08,450
And the last example are
locomotives for commuter rail,

856
00:43:08,450 --> 00:43:10,710
$5.7 million per locomotive.

857
00:43:10,710 --> 00:43:15,950
So they cost more, but these
are not all passenger cars.

858
00:43:15,950 --> 00:43:22,510
These are the locomotives
for the commuter rail system.

859
00:43:22,510 --> 00:43:26,450
And for bus, so a
standard bus, a CNG bus,

860
00:43:26,450 --> 00:43:29,350
the Compressed
Natural Gas, these

861
00:43:29,350 --> 00:43:31,600
are, again, recent MBTA orders--

862
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:36,910
the generic cost, $300,000,
$350,000 about per bus.

863
00:43:36,910 --> 00:43:40,590
There was an order
to NABI, and it

864
00:43:40,590 --> 00:43:42,640
was for 300 vehicles in 2004.

865
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:47,920
And that was $320,000 per bus.

866
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:53,590
Trolley, 40-foot trolley is
about $1 million per trolley.

867
00:43:53,590 --> 00:43:58,698
These are the sort of electric
Silver Line vehicles I think.

868
00:43:58,698 --> 00:44:00,410
I'm pretty sure.

869
00:44:00,410 --> 00:44:08,150
The articulated, 60-foot CNG
buses, 44 vehicles in 2003,

870
00:44:08,150 --> 00:44:10,904
and the articulated,
dual-mode, 60-foot buses--

871
00:44:10,904 --> 00:44:13,070
this is Silver Line, the
one that runs in the tunnel

872
00:44:13,070 --> 00:44:15,230
and goes out to the airport--

873
00:44:15,230 --> 00:44:18,840
$1.6 million, 32 vehicles, 2004.

874
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:19,340
Yeah.

875
00:44:19,340 --> 00:44:21,090
AUDIENCE: Maybe this
is already happening,

876
00:44:21,090 --> 00:44:23,040
but is there any move
for different transport

877
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:24,940
organizations to
consolidate their designs

878
00:44:24,940 --> 00:44:28,400
and like be able to reuse
vehicle design and bus design?

879
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:32,547
Like why are there separate
things for all cities?

880
00:44:32,547 --> 00:44:34,630
PROFESSOR: That's a good
question, but a lot of it

881
00:44:34,630 --> 00:44:36,070
is cultural.

882
00:44:36,070 --> 00:44:39,820
There are-- so for
example, Green Line here

883
00:44:39,820 --> 00:44:43,670
has sort of specific needs with
respect to like turning radius,

884
00:44:43,670 --> 00:44:50,890
and they have a lot of steep
grades in some sections.

885
00:44:50,890 --> 00:44:54,430
They're also used to a
certain type of vehicle.

886
00:44:54,430 --> 00:44:58,570
So they're more
comfortable procuring

887
00:44:58,570 --> 00:45:01,500
vehicles that are similar to
what they've had in the past.

888
00:45:01,500 --> 00:45:05,710
So there's some resistance to
trying something very new all

889
00:45:05,710 --> 00:45:08,140
of a sudden.

890
00:45:08,140 --> 00:45:13,030
But there are some vehicles
that are very common, especially

891
00:45:13,030 --> 00:45:14,610
in newer systems.

892
00:45:14,610 --> 00:45:16,407
And they tend to be
a little cheaper.

893
00:45:16,407 --> 00:45:19,120
So yeah, if you
can get big orders,

894
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:20,620
or if you're a small
system, and you

895
00:45:20,620 --> 00:45:24,280
can partner with someone
else when they are procuring

896
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,320
to procure additional
vehicles-- instead

897
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,770
of you doing 10 yourself,
you add yourself

898
00:45:29,770 --> 00:45:31,140
to an order of 100.

899
00:45:31,140 --> 00:45:33,080
You get a lower price.

900
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:34,430
So yeah?

901
00:45:34,430 --> 00:45:35,930
AUDIENCE: But then
there's certainly

902
00:45:35,930 --> 00:45:38,570
two examples of that in
streetcars, the most recent

903
00:45:38,570 --> 00:45:42,470
one, which was when the Boston
and San Francisco bought

904
00:45:42,470 --> 00:45:44,510
a similar design for
streetcars in the '70s,

905
00:45:44,510 --> 00:45:46,730
and both got a crappy product.

906
00:45:46,730 --> 00:45:50,390
But 50 years before when the
PCC cars, the ones that still

907
00:45:50,390 --> 00:45:52,910
run down in Mattapan, was a
sort of standardized streetcar

908
00:45:52,910 --> 00:45:55,920
design over most of the country,
and that worked really well.

909
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,420
So it has been done, but--

910
00:45:57,420 --> 00:45:59,680
PROFESSOR: Yeah, and
still is done, I think.

911
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:00,320
Yeah, yeah.

912
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:03,470
AUDIENCE: But each system, I
think, has so many [INAUDIBLE]

913
00:46:03,470 --> 00:46:04,511
things.

914
00:46:04,511 --> 00:46:06,010
But when it comes
to buses, then you

915
00:46:06,010 --> 00:46:09,851
do see the same types of
buses like in many systems.

916
00:46:09,851 --> 00:46:11,600
In Europe, you only
have like two or three

917
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:13,460
manufacturers that
make them all.

918
00:46:13,460 --> 00:46:14,330
In the US, as well.

919
00:46:14,330 --> 00:46:17,240
PROFESSOR: And big procurements,
not so much for bus,

920
00:46:17,240 --> 00:46:19,070
but for rail, a lot
of big procurements

921
00:46:19,070 --> 00:46:21,890
have rules requiring
local manufacturing.

922
00:46:21,890 --> 00:46:28,420
So yeah, you get a Chinese
company to do the latest--

923
00:46:28,420 --> 00:46:29,490
where was that example--

924
00:46:29,490 --> 00:46:32,355
CNR, right, but I'm pretty sure
that a lot of the manufacture

925
00:46:32,355 --> 00:46:36,270
is happening in
Massachusetts or close by.

926
00:46:36,270 --> 00:46:43,940
So OK, typical capital
costs per passenger mile,

927
00:46:43,940 --> 00:46:46,940
so looking at a
range of examples,

928
00:46:46,940 --> 00:46:50,810
it will cost [INAUDIBLE] going
anywhere from $0.05 to $0.10.

929
00:46:50,810 --> 00:46:51,726
So if you have--

930
00:46:51,726 --> 00:46:53,600
again, if you're doing
the napkin calculation

931
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:59,600
on a new system or new line,
you might think how many

932
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,980
passenger miles do I have.

933
00:47:01,980 --> 00:47:05,040
You could multiply by this to
figure out how much you could

934
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:06,900
expect to spend on vehicles.

935
00:47:06,900 --> 00:47:09,430
And for infrastructure, that
could range anywhere from $0.01

936
00:47:09,430 --> 00:47:12,461
to $1 because there are so
many ways of doing this.

937
00:47:12,461 --> 00:47:12,960
Right?

938
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:14,126
It could be a subway.

939
00:47:14,126 --> 00:47:15,000
It could be at grade.

940
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:16,980
It could be a bus.

941
00:47:16,980 --> 00:47:18,150
Or it could be rail.

942
00:47:18,150 --> 00:47:23,350
So it's very variable, and you
need to get into the specifics.

943
00:47:23,350 --> 00:47:25,270
OK, now let's look
at operating costs.

944
00:47:25,270 --> 00:47:27,070
We've been talking
about capital costs.

945
00:47:27,070 --> 00:47:29,180
Let's look at operating costs.

946
00:47:29,180 --> 00:47:33,640
So in the US in 2013,
we spent $42.2 billion

947
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,330
across the industry.

948
00:47:35,330 --> 00:47:39,910
And if we divide that
by type, about 44%

949
00:47:39,910 --> 00:47:43,600
was spent in vehicle
operations, and the rest of it

950
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,000
was more or less evenly
distributed between vehicle

951
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:48,250
maintenance, other
kinds of maintenance

952
00:47:48,250 --> 00:47:51,970
like facility maintenance,
administration,

953
00:47:51,970 --> 00:47:53,900
and purchased transportation.

954
00:47:53,900 --> 00:47:57,760
Purchased transportation is
when a public agency outsources

955
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,390
the operation of some mode.

956
00:48:01,390 --> 00:48:06,550
Most of this 14% is paratransit,
so on-demand transportation

957
00:48:06,550 --> 00:48:10,900
for the handicapped
and other groups.

958
00:48:10,900 --> 00:48:13,120
Some of it is commuter rail.

959
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:17,740
So for example, the MBTA
operates commuter rail

960
00:48:17,740 --> 00:48:19,520
through a third party.

961
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:25,530
All right, OK, by mode, about
half is spent on buses--

962
00:48:25,530 --> 00:48:28,530
makes sense because there are
more bus systems and, even

963
00:48:28,530 --> 00:48:31,140
in cities that have
rail, but the bus systems

964
00:48:31,140 --> 00:48:34,800
are quite large, and
they cover a wide area--

965
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:38,030
about 20% on heavy
rail, 13% commuter rail,

966
00:48:38,030 --> 00:48:39,880
and much less on light rail.

967
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:43,050
Paratransit is about
12%, 3% for other modes.

968
00:48:43,050 --> 00:48:46,302
Other modes is things like
ferries and other modes not

969
00:48:46,302 --> 00:48:48,510
included in the traditional
bus, heavy rail, commuter

970
00:48:48,510 --> 00:48:49,674
rail, light rail.

971
00:48:49,674 --> 00:48:58,050
So OK, and let's
look at vehicles--

972
00:48:58,050 --> 00:48:59,790
sorry, employees
per running vehicle.

973
00:48:59,790 --> 00:49:02,550
So by mode, how many
employees would you

974
00:49:02,550 --> 00:49:06,590
have to have to operate,
to run a system?

975
00:49:06,590 --> 00:49:09,600
So paratransit, about
1.6 per vehicle--

976
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,210
obviously, you have one person
driving a paratransit vehicle.

977
00:49:12,210 --> 00:49:13,740
That person has an
eight-hour shift,

978
00:49:13,740 --> 00:49:15,690
and you run that vehicle
for a longer time.

979
00:49:15,690 --> 00:49:20,350
So you need more
people than vehicles.

980
00:49:20,350 --> 00:49:23,670
Bus tends to be higher
because bus systems tend

981
00:49:23,670 --> 00:49:27,600
to start much earlier and
end service much later.

982
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,990
And you also have maintenance
yards and refueling facilities.

983
00:49:30,990 --> 00:49:31,490
Right?

984
00:49:31,490 --> 00:49:35,250
So you have bus stops to clean.

985
00:49:35,250 --> 00:49:39,090
So it's a more
intense operation.

986
00:49:39,090 --> 00:49:43,600
Commuter rail, 4.7-- you
have the people driving

987
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:44,410
the locomotives.

988
00:49:44,410 --> 00:49:48,690
You have the attendants
looking at tickets.

989
00:49:48,690 --> 00:49:52,960
You have rail to maintain
and stations to maintain.

990
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:54,600
So that's commuter rail.

991
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:56,490
Heavy rail is 5.5.

992
00:49:56,490 --> 00:49:59,470
Again, it starts
early, runs late.

993
00:49:59,470 --> 00:50:02,580
You have a lot of stations to
maintain, more so than commuter

994
00:50:02,580 --> 00:50:07,020
rail, so 5.5.

995
00:50:07,020 --> 00:50:08,370
Light rail is 6.8.

996
00:50:08,370 --> 00:50:14,340
Part of the recent light rail
is high is because many systems

997
00:50:14,340 --> 00:50:16,310
have one driver per car.

998
00:50:16,310 --> 00:50:19,320
Or some systems, at least,
have one driver per car.

999
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,490
So here in the Green
Line, we have that.

1000
00:50:21,490 --> 00:50:21,990
Right?

1001
00:50:21,990 --> 00:50:25,940
So if you have a two-car
train, you have two drivers.

1002
00:50:25,940 --> 00:50:29,280
And again, it starts service
early, ends service late.

1003
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,340
So you [INAUDIBLE].

1004
00:50:32,340 --> 00:50:35,160
You need multiple shifts
to run the whole day.

1005
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:37,380
And you have
maintenance of stations.

1006
00:50:37,380 --> 00:50:40,290
Light rail stations [INAUDIBLE]
be shorter than heavy rail.

1007
00:50:40,290 --> 00:50:42,880
So they have more
stations to take care of.

1008
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,990
And then there's maintenance,
vehicle maintenance

1009
00:50:45,990 --> 00:50:48,010
and facility maintenance.

1010
00:50:48,010 --> 00:50:52,450
[INAUDIBLE] is about three
employees per vehicle.

1011
00:50:52,450 --> 00:50:58,245
OK, so comparing, these numbers
below are from a 1970 study

1012
00:50:58,245 --> 00:50:59,670
on employees per vehicle.

1013
00:50:59,670 --> 00:51:01,500
And it's a comparison
of bus and rail.

1014
00:51:01,500 --> 00:51:06,540
So what's neat about the
comparison at the bottom

1015
00:51:06,540 --> 00:51:12,380
is that we are distributing
the costs of a vehicle

1016
00:51:12,380 --> 00:51:15,590
not only by mode, but also
by what type of expense.

1017
00:51:15,590 --> 00:51:16,090
Right?

1018
00:51:16,090 --> 00:51:19,430
So at the top, we're
saying bus is this much.

1019
00:51:19,430 --> 00:51:23,660
Here we divide it by vehicle
operation i.e. driving,

1020
00:51:23,660 --> 00:51:26,460
vehicle maintenance,
management and control,

1021
00:51:26,460 --> 00:51:28,400
fare collection,
way maintenance,

1022
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,170
and then you have
the total number.

1023
00:51:30,170 --> 00:51:32,530
So it is from an earlier study.

1024
00:51:32,530 --> 00:51:37,430
But for vehicle maintenance,
it's more or less the same

1025
00:51:37,430 --> 00:51:39,650
on a unit cost basis.

1026
00:51:39,650 --> 00:51:45,020
For bus, this is per car,
and that's per vehicle.

1027
00:51:45,020 --> 00:51:51,190
So you have about 2.2 drivers
per bus for bus systems,

1028
00:51:51,190 --> 00:51:55,460
about 1 for rail systems.

1029
00:51:55,460 --> 00:51:58,760
This is driving, but
also other things.

1030
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,200
Management and control
is about the same.

1031
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:06,180
And then the driver takes care
of fare collection on bus.

1032
00:52:06,180 --> 00:52:07,790
But in rail, you
have people that

1033
00:52:07,790 --> 00:52:11,460
have to sort of be station
attendants and help people out.

1034
00:52:11,460 --> 00:52:16,806
You might have an office where
people can complain about their

1035
00:52:16,806 --> 00:52:18,680
needing a rebate because
their machine didn't

1036
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:19,430
work or something.

1037
00:52:19,430 --> 00:52:22,760
They lost value on
their fare card.

1038
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,220
So way maintenance
is more expensive,

1039
00:52:25,220 --> 00:52:28,070
whereas way maintenance
on buses on the streets,

1040
00:52:28,070 --> 00:52:31,280
that's not even included in the
cost for running bus systems

1041
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:32,360
because that's--

1042
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:34,380
the Public Works Department
takes care of that.

1043
00:52:34,380 --> 00:52:38,300
So overall, it's higher
for rail than bus.

1044
00:52:38,300 --> 00:52:40,380
But you have some--

1045
00:52:40,380 --> 00:52:45,380
yeah, so you do have a
higher productivity for metro

1046
00:52:45,380 --> 00:52:49,860
if you measure it in passenger
miles per revenue vehicle hour.

1047
00:52:49,860 --> 00:52:52,640
Yeah, so if you
have any questions,

1048
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:55,900
I'll take them, questions on
the homework or on this lecture

1049
00:52:55,900 --> 00:52:58,360
or on the previous lectures.

1050
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,866
And if you don't have
questions, you may leave.

1051
00:53:04,770 --> 00:53:07,146
AUDIENCE: Is that [INAUDIBLE]?

1052
00:53:07,146 --> 00:53:08,770
PROFESSOR: You were
first, yeah, Scott.

1053
00:53:08,770 --> 00:53:12,346
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] on slide
18 looking at capital cost

1054
00:53:12,346 --> 00:53:17,004
over passenger mile, do you need
to pick a time period in order

1055
00:53:17,004 --> 00:53:18,620
to make that calculation.

1056
00:53:18,620 --> 00:53:20,060
PROFESSOR: This is very general.

1057
00:53:20,060 --> 00:53:24,020
So this is sort of high level,
looking at the whole industry

1058
00:53:24,020 --> 00:53:29,010
and looking at like
capital projects.

1059
00:53:29,010 --> 00:53:32,760
So you know, if you look
at how much it costs

1060
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:38,160
to build a new line, a new
light rail line in some city,

1061
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,860
and then you see how many
people are taking it--

1062
00:53:40,860 --> 00:53:42,120
so we have passenger miles.

1063
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,550
So you divide the total cost by
that, and that's what you get.

1064
00:53:45,550 --> 00:53:47,320
You have a question.

1065
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:57,290
AUDIENCE: Yes, so regarding the
homework assignment, we are--

1066
00:53:57,290 --> 00:54:00,540
basically, we should do the
assignment and maybe comment

1067
00:54:00,540 --> 00:54:03,730
on, but assume that
we don't know--

1068
00:54:03,730 --> 00:54:06,240
we won't have like the--

1069
00:54:06,240 --> 00:54:07,596
what am I trying to say?

1070
00:54:07,596 --> 00:54:09,470
It seemed like there
was a lot of information

1071
00:54:09,470 --> 00:54:11,090
that you have already
asked if people

1072
00:54:11,090 --> 00:54:13,225
who are taking the train
the one stop that we are.

1073
00:54:13,225 --> 00:54:13,850
PROFESSOR: Yes.

1074
00:54:13,850 --> 00:54:16,010
AUDIENCE: So we just assume
[INAUDIBLE] covered in the data

1075
00:54:16,010 --> 00:54:17,740
collection and assume
that that data exists,

1076
00:54:17,740 --> 00:54:18,823
but that we don't have it.

1077
00:54:18,823 --> 00:54:19,960
PROFESSOR: Yes, yes.

1078
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,840
So there are people who--

1079
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:25,190
I think what you're
referring to is

1080
00:54:25,190 --> 00:54:29,120
there are people
who are going to MIT

1081
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:33,550
who get off at Central Square
and transfer to the Red Line,

1082
00:54:33,550 --> 00:54:34,592
right, and go to Kendall.

1083
00:54:34,592 --> 00:54:36,425
AUDIENCE: Yeah, especially
the Kendall area.

1084
00:54:36,425 --> 00:54:38,060
PROFESSOR: Right,
now how many of those

1085
00:54:38,060 --> 00:54:41,870
would continue on the bus
rather than switch anyway?

1086
00:54:41,870 --> 00:54:43,170
I'm not sure.

1087
00:54:43,170 --> 00:54:46,500
So there is a
judgment call there.

1088
00:54:46,500 --> 00:54:50,735
But yeah, we're focusing
on the people that

1089
00:54:50,735 --> 00:54:52,860
for sure would stay on the bus.

1090
00:54:52,860 --> 00:54:54,360
They're not
transferring to Kendall.

1091
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,460
So they're going somewhere
else in that area

1092
00:54:57,460 --> 00:54:59,650
before reaching
Kendall possibly,

1093
00:54:59,650 --> 00:55:02,710
right, or almost surely.

1094
00:55:02,710 --> 00:55:04,720
And those are the people
that would definitely

1095
00:55:04,720 --> 00:55:05,920
stay on the bus.

1096
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:07,150
AUDIENCE: That we talked to.

1097
00:55:07,150 --> 00:55:08,691
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
yeah, exactly, which

1098
00:55:08,691 --> 00:55:10,040
is why we picked that bus stop.

1099
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:13,570
But I think it's very likely
that, in a future assignment,

1100
00:55:13,570 --> 00:55:16,910
I will give you data on the
people who are transferring

1101
00:55:16,910 --> 00:55:20,920
to the Central Square Red Line.

1102
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,700
And therefore, you'll
have the whole picture

1103
00:55:23,700 --> 00:55:28,900
of from your survey
and from the ODX data,

1104
00:55:28,900 --> 00:55:31,960
yeah, AFC data from Red Line.

1105
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:32,626
AUDIENCE: Great.

1106
00:55:35,614 --> 00:55:38,520
PROFESSOR: Any other questions?

1107
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:40,670
All right, goodbye.