WEBVTT 00:00:01.040 --> 00:00:03.380 The following content is provided under a Creative 00:00:03.380 --> 00:00:04.770 Commons license. 00:00:04.770 --> 00:00:06.980 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 00:00:06.980 --> 00:00:11.070 continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. 00:00:11.070 --> 00:00:13.640 To make a donation or to view additional materials 00:00:13.640 --> 00:00:17.600 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 00:00:17.600 --> 00:00:18.486 at ocw.mit.edu. 00:00:22.190 --> 00:00:25.100 PROFESSOR: OK, so you might recall we had a snow day, 00:00:25.100 --> 00:00:27.650 and the snow day bumped us. 00:00:30.520 --> 00:00:32.890 We interrupted our introduction theme 00:00:32.890 --> 00:00:36.280 and dove right into data collection. 00:00:36.280 --> 00:00:37.960 Then we did short-range planning. 00:00:37.960 --> 00:00:40.810 So Neema was lecturing that over two lectures. 00:00:40.810 --> 00:00:46.480 Now we're back to the third and last introductory material. 00:00:46.480 --> 00:00:49.450 And then we'll go back and do more data and modeling 00:00:49.450 --> 00:00:50.410 if that makes sense. 00:00:50.410 --> 00:00:53.590 Sorry for that interruption. 00:00:53.590 --> 00:00:58.390 So it's a little more general than the other classes 00:00:58.390 --> 00:00:59.620 that we've seen. 00:00:59.620 --> 00:01:02.530 And today's topic is model capacities and costs. 00:01:02.530 --> 00:01:08.200 So we'll cover a simple capacity analysis that you might do, 00:01:08.200 --> 00:01:10.580 you know, back of the envelope calculation. 00:01:10.580 --> 00:01:13.144 If somebody is asking you about something, 00:01:13.144 --> 00:01:14.560 and it's a completely new service, 00:01:14.560 --> 00:01:16.740 and you just want to have an idea, 00:01:16.740 --> 00:01:19.090 I will give an example of that. 00:01:19.090 --> 00:01:20.740 Then we'll look at worldwide status 00:01:20.740 --> 00:01:22.720 of urban rail systems, both heavy rail 00:01:22.720 --> 00:01:25.450 and light rail, some bus ways. 00:01:25.450 --> 00:01:27.880 And we'll look at capital and operating costs 00:01:27.880 --> 00:01:32.140 at a high level, focusing more on the US using the National 00:01:32.140 --> 00:01:34.740 Transit Database. 00:01:34.740 --> 00:01:38.580 All right, so first slide here is 00:01:38.580 --> 00:01:41.560 an update of the statistics I gave you earlier. 00:01:41.560 --> 00:01:43.470 So you have these statistics from 00:01:43.470 --> 00:01:45.610 the previous introductory lecture, 00:01:45.610 --> 00:01:47.370 but these are updated for 2013. 00:01:47.370 --> 00:01:51.040 So I'm not going to cover this in detail. 00:01:51.040 --> 00:01:53.700 But if you want to compare with the previous table, 00:01:53.700 --> 00:01:54.480 you can do so. 00:01:54.480 --> 00:01:58.050 And here you have more updated numbers. 00:01:58.050 --> 00:02:01.110 These come from the APTA Fact Book, 00:02:01.110 --> 00:02:05.247 and they take the numbers from the National Transit Database. 00:02:08.110 --> 00:02:11.660 And let's start with that simple capacity analysis. 00:02:11.660 --> 00:02:14.500 So this is a theoretical exercise, 00:02:14.500 --> 00:02:18.130 but it gives you some idea of how one might approach-- 00:02:18.130 --> 00:02:20.400 if you have nothing to go on, how 00:02:20.400 --> 00:02:23.730 one might approach estimating what capacity 00:02:23.730 --> 00:02:25.380 you need for some service. 00:02:25.380 --> 00:02:29.460 So the problem is, given a pie-shaped sector 00:02:29.460 --> 00:02:31.650 into the central business district served 00:02:31.650 --> 00:02:34.830 by a single transit line, what will be the peak passenger 00:02:34.830 --> 00:02:37.800 flow entering the central business district. 00:02:37.800 --> 00:02:40.110 And that might give you an idea of what mode you need. 00:02:40.110 --> 00:02:40.609 Right? 00:02:40.609 --> 00:02:41.990 Can you run a bus system? 00:02:41.990 --> 00:02:46.350 Do you need a light rail, a BRT, a heavy rail? 00:02:46.350 --> 00:02:48.870 So it gives you some idea. 00:02:48.870 --> 00:02:50.790 And you might have some statistics 00:02:50.790 --> 00:02:53.220 about the city where you're being asked about, 00:02:53.220 --> 00:02:54.390 the question. 00:02:54.390 --> 00:02:56.100 And so you can make some assumptions. 00:02:56.100 --> 00:02:59.920 You can draw this on the back of a napkin and, you know, 00:02:59.920 --> 00:03:02.820 do some calculus with it if you want to. 00:03:02.820 --> 00:03:04.630 And that's what we're going to do. 00:03:04.630 --> 00:03:07.220 So I'm going to draw on the board a little bit. 00:03:14.180 --> 00:03:16.770 What do we have here? 00:03:16.770 --> 00:03:22.960 Yeah, I'll draw the same shape here for reference. 00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:28.760 So we have a cone-shaped sector or a pie-shaped sector. 00:03:28.760 --> 00:03:33.230 And there's some angle of that corridor, which 00:03:33.230 --> 00:03:36.560 is the catchment area over which people 00:03:36.560 --> 00:03:38.150 might walk to the service. 00:03:38.150 --> 00:03:41.780 The service, by the way, is along some line, 00:03:41.780 --> 00:03:49.290 and it reaches the city center, which we're calling the CBD. 00:03:49.290 --> 00:03:52.950 And at that center, there is some density, some population 00:03:52.950 --> 00:03:59.460 density, which we call P sub c, the population 00:03:59.460 --> 00:04:02.340 density at the center. 00:04:02.340 --> 00:04:10.040 And at any point along this pie or pie-shaped sector, 00:04:10.040 --> 00:04:16.220 this, the length of this arc, is r theta, 00:04:16.220 --> 00:04:24.110 where theta is the angle, and r is the radius from the CBD 00:04:24.110 --> 00:04:28.200 up to that point. 00:04:28.200 --> 00:04:30.240 So r is a variable, and it starts at 0, 00:04:30.240 --> 00:04:32.520 and it extends all the way up to the length 00:04:32.520 --> 00:04:36.580 of the corridor, which is L. L is 00:04:36.580 --> 00:04:40.370 the maximum value r can take. 00:04:40.370 --> 00:04:42.750 Does that make sense? 00:04:42.750 --> 00:04:44.282 Everybody following? 00:04:44.282 --> 00:04:50.750 OK, and then we take little slices of these arcs. 00:04:50.750 --> 00:04:59.600 And they have a very, very thin, infinitesimally small width, 00:04:59.600 --> 00:05:07.890 dr. And we can-- 00:05:07.890 --> 00:05:11.310 that sort of sets the stage for what we want to do here. 00:05:11.310 --> 00:05:12.360 Let's assume something. 00:05:12.360 --> 00:05:16.110 Let's start assuming the population density, which 00:05:16.110 --> 00:05:21.030 starts at a very high level in the center of the business 00:05:21.030 --> 00:05:23.772 district, starts dropping as you move out. 00:05:23.772 --> 00:05:24.480 That makes sense. 00:05:24.480 --> 00:05:24.690 Right? 00:05:24.690 --> 00:05:26.320 In most cities, that's what happens. 00:05:26.320 --> 00:05:28.580 We're going to assume that it drops linearly 00:05:28.580 --> 00:05:33.960 and that it reaches some value lower than Pc at some distance 00:05:33.960 --> 00:05:35.430 L from the CBD. 00:05:35.430 --> 00:05:43.060 And if we look at the distance from the CBD 00:05:43.060 --> 00:05:52.550 here, which we call r, and we start at 0, 0 is at the CBD. 00:05:52.550 --> 00:05:53.840 Right? 00:05:53.840 --> 00:05:58.150 We start with a population density of Pc. 00:05:58.150 --> 00:06:01.940 And we're going to assume it drops linearly to some amount. 00:06:01.940 --> 00:06:05.330 And at some point, we'll reach L. 00:06:05.330 --> 00:06:07.400 And that's where we stop the corridor. 00:06:07.400 --> 00:06:14.460 So this part doesn't really matter because the corridor 00:06:14.460 --> 00:06:17.310 doesn't serve the part. 00:06:17.310 --> 00:06:23.790 And the rate at which that population density declines, 00:06:23.790 --> 00:06:34.200 we will call delta P. OK, so total population 00:06:34.200 --> 00:06:37.240 density is decreasing as we move outwards from the center. 00:06:37.240 --> 00:06:39.900 All right, so let's start with what is 00:06:39.900 --> 00:06:41.820 the population in the corridor. 00:06:41.820 --> 00:06:42.320 Right? 00:06:42.320 --> 00:06:46.020 Because we need to know how many people are in that corridor. 00:06:46.020 --> 00:06:48.330 And then from that, we can calculate, 00:06:48.330 --> 00:06:50.160 based on some assumptions, how many people 00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:51.750 might access that line. 00:06:54.655 --> 00:06:57.850 So we'll start with calculating the population 00:06:57.850 --> 00:07:00.250 in that whole pie-shaped sector. 00:07:00.250 --> 00:07:07.190 All right, so call it population. 00:07:07.190 --> 00:07:13.060 So we'll take an integral from r equals 0 to r equals L, which 00:07:13.060 --> 00:07:14.320 is the length of the corridor. 00:07:20.340 --> 00:07:26.720 And we take r theta, which is the length of this arc, which 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:29.920 it starts very small and gets longer and longer until we 00:07:29.920 --> 00:07:36.260 get to this part, which is L theta alone. 00:07:36.260 --> 00:07:36.760 Right? 00:07:36.760 --> 00:07:38.520 So this is the arc length. 00:07:43.760 --> 00:07:53.620 And we multiply by the arc width, which is dr. 00:07:53.620 --> 00:07:56.620 And we multiply by the population density. 00:07:56.620 --> 00:07:58.840 And the population density is a function 00:07:58.840 --> 00:08:00.330 of how far we are from the center. 00:08:00.330 --> 00:08:05.380 So that's going to be P of r. 00:08:05.380 --> 00:08:09.860 And we can call this graph P of r. 00:08:12.910 --> 00:08:14.320 The y value here is P of r. 00:08:14.320 --> 00:08:16.330 It starts at Pc, drops to 0. 00:08:16.330 --> 00:08:20.890 Or before reaching-- well, yeah, it 00:08:20.890 --> 00:08:24.010 doesn't get to 0 at the point of reaching L. Right? 00:08:24.010 --> 00:08:26.230 So it remains positive throughout the length 00:08:26.230 --> 00:08:28.810 of the corridor. 00:08:28.810 --> 00:08:32.200 All right, and now we can just, you know, do some math 00:08:32.200 --> 00:08:35.169 and calculate this. 00:08:35.169 --> 00:08:40.970 So I'll just run through it. 00:08:40.970 --> 00:08:47.350 So we have r theta dr. Let's substitute this function, which 00:08:47.350 --> 00:08:49.000 is the population density. 00:08:53.630 --> 00:08:55.610 We assume that it had this shape. 00:08:55.610 --> 00:08:59.010 So let's plug that in here. 00:08:59.010 --> 00:09:00.430 It's a linear function. 00:09:00.430 --> 00:09:03.570 So it starts at the center with a high number, 00:09:03.570 --> 00:09:12.771 and it decreases as a function of r at a rate of dP and times 00:09:12.771 --> 00:09:13.270 r. 00:09:13.270 --> 00:09:13.769 Right? 00:09:13.769 --> 00:09:17.180 So when r equals 0, there's no decrease. 00:09:17.180 --> 00:09:20.150 As you move this way, you multiply r times dP, 00:09:20.150 --> 00:09:22.940 and you get the difference between Pc 00:09:22.940 --> 00:09:26.240 and the point where you are. 00:09:26.240 --> 00:09:42.370 All right, here I'm just going to collect terms to make 00:09:42.370 --> 00:09:43.810 things look a little nicer. 00:10:02.310 --> 00:10:07.250 All right, so again, we're just distributing this times that 00:10:07.250 --> 00:10:08.250 and that times that. 00:10:08.250 --> 00:10:10.130 So we have now two integrals. 00:10:13.010 --> 00:10:15.170 We can take some constants out. 00:10:15.170 --> 00:10:18.862 So theta is a constant, and Pc is a constant. 00:10:18.862 --> 00:10:20.570 So we can take those out of the integral. 00:10:24.660 --> 00:10:28.560 And we continue integrating from 0 to L. 00:10:28.560 --> 00:10:31.820 But now we have a simple thing, r dr, 00:10:31.820 --> 00:10:33.570 which we know how to integrate. 00:10:33.570 --> 00:10:37.010 And then here, dr is-- 00:10:37.010 --> 00:10:38.480 sorry, dP is given. 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:41.510 So we have an assumption about what that rate is right 00:10:41.510 --> 00:10:47.680 so dP is taken out as well as a constant. 00:10:47.680 --> 00:10:52.960 And we, again, integrate from 0 through L. And sorry, 00:10:52.960 --> 00:10:54.140 and theta is also constant. 00:10:54.140 --> 00:10:54.640 Right? 00:10:54.640 --> 00:10:56.600 So we can take that out. 00:10:56.600 --> 00:11:00.230 And we have r squared dr. 00:11:00.230 --> 00:11:03.220 So now it looks a lot simpler, and we 00:11:03.220 --> 00:11:06.340 can do the simple integral. 00:11:06.340 --> 00:11:06.840 Right? 00:11:06.840 --> 00:11:09.030 Integral of r dr is r squared over 2. 00:11:09.030 --> 00:11:11.640 Integral of r squared is r cubed over 3. 00:11:11.640 --> 00:11:13.860 So we can substitute that in. 00:11:16.450 --> 00:11:25.520 So we have Pc theta over 2 times r squared-- 00:11:25.520 --> 00:11:28.310 and r squared goes from 0 to L-- 00:11:30.960 --> 00:11:37.540 minus dP theta over 3. 00:11:37.540 --> 00:11:46.420 And we have r cubed going from 0 to L. 00:11:46.420 --> 00:11:52.750 And now we just simplify things, and we compute the going from 0 00:11:52.750 --> 00:11:54.460 to L on both sides. 00:11:54.460 --> 00:12:04.940 So we are left with Pc theta over 2 times L squared. 00:12:04.940 --> 00:12:08.510 When these ranges are 0, this term is 0, and that term is 0. 00:12:08.510 --> 00:12:12.160 So all that matters is plugging in-- substituting L for r. 00:12:12.160 --> 00:12:12.890 Right? 00:12:12.890 --> 00:12:15.510 And the terms of minus 0 are 0. 00:12:15.510 --> 00:12:17.710 So we don't need to write them. 00:12:21.730 --> 00:12:27.010 dP theta over 3 L cubed-- 00:12:33.702 --> 00:12:40.340 and just collecting terms, the ones that look similar-- 00:12:40.340 --> 00:12:47.983 Pc/2 minus dP L/3. 00:12:51.240 --> 00:12:54.420 OK, so this is the population in the corridor. 00:12:59.550 --> 00:13:02.560 And it's a function of the properties of the corridor. 00:13:02.560 --> 00:13:03.060 Right? 00:13:03.060 --> 00:13:06.700 So if the corridor is longer, then we 00:13:06.700 --> 00:13:09.160 have a higher population. 00:13:09.160 --> 00:13:11.885 If the angle of the corridor gets wider [INAUDIBLE] 00:13:11.885 --> 00:13:13.010 population in the corridor. 00:13:13.010 --> 00:13:14.470 That also makes sense. 00:13:14.470 --> 00:13:17.905 And then it also depends on the population of the city center-- 00:13:17.905 --> 00:13:20.830 the higher it is, the bigger the population in the center. 00:13:20.830 --> 00:13:24.760 And it depends on the rate at which the population decreases 00:13:24.760 --> 00:13:26.320 from the center-- 00:13:26.320 --> 00:13:28.117 the smaller the rate of decrease, 00:13:28.117 --> 00:13:29.200 the larger the population. 00:13:29.200 --> 00:13:30.075 Right? 00:13:30.075 --> 00:13:30.950 Does that make sense? 00:13:35.340 --> 00:13:39.000 OK, and now, in terms of peak passenger flow, 00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:44.880 we can look at units, but we'll have to add some assumptions. 00:13:44.880 --> 00:13:49.252 So actually, I think, at this point, 00:13:49.252 --> 00:13:50.960 I can probably stop the math on the board 00:13:50.960 --> 00:13:52.480 and just go straight to it. 00:13:52.480 --> 00:13:56.435 So this is the modeling part. 00:13:56.435 --> 00:13:58.810 And now we're just going to make some assumptions about-- 00:13:58.810 --> 00:14:02.200 given that the population in the corridor and some assumptions 00:14:02.200 --> 00:14:04.390 about what L and theta and Pc and dP 00:14:04.390 --> 00:14:10.150 are and some assumptions about the share of those people that 00:14:10.150 --> 00:14:15.750 would take transit, we'll look at what the peak passenger 00:14:15.750 --> 00:14:16.360 flow is. 00:14:16.360 --> 00:14:18.090 So let's go straight to it. 00:14:18.090 --> 00:14:19.960 Here we have the variables that I 00:14:19.960 --> 00:14:22.890 defined on the board and some additional ones. 00:14:22.890 --> 00:14:24.640 We have t, c, m, and p. 00:14:24.640 --> 00:14:25.140 Right? 00:14:25.140 --> 00:14:28.422 So t is the number of one-way trips per person per day. 00:14:28.422 --> 00:14:29.880 We're going to have to assume this. 00:14:32.580 --> 00:14:35.960 c is the share of trips that are inbound to the CBD, 00:14:35.960 --> 00:14:37.440 as opposed to going outbound. 00:14:37.440 --> 00:14:37.940 Right? 00:14:37.940 --> 00:14:43.260 So it's what percentage go inbound. 00:14:43.260 --> 00:14:46.260 m is the transit market share for CBD-bound trips. 00:14:46.260 --> 00:14:49.230 So some people will take cars or other modes. 00:14:49.230 --> 00:14:52.620 And we want to have some assumption about what 00:14:52.620 --> 00:14:57.330 percent of people that are going into the CBD 00:14:57.330 --> 00:15:00.840 will take transit, as opposed to other modes. 00:15:00.840 --> 00:15:01.890 So that's m. 00:15:01.890 --> 00:15:05.130 And p is the share of CBD-bound transit trips in the peak hour. 00:15:05.130 --> 00:15:06.720 So we want the peak hour flow. 00:15:06.720 --> 00:15:09.754 And maybe we don't want the whole day. 00:15:09.754 --> 00:15:10.920 We just want peak hour flow. 00:15:10.920 --> 00:15:12.940 So there's going to be some percentage of that. 00:15:12.940 --> 00:15:17.520 So here you have the same equations 00:15:17.520 --> 00:15:19.200 that I have on the board. 00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:22.740 And the peak passenger flow is what 00:15:22.740 --> 00:15:26.100 we have there, which is the population in the corridor 00:15:26.100 --> 00:15:28.320 multiplied by our four assumptions, our four 00:15:28.320 --> 00:15:30.600 factors that are going to convert 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:32.550 the population in the whole corridor 00:15:32.550 --> 00:15:37.110 to what percent of people are going to go into the CBD taking 00:15:37.110 --> 00:15:38.250 transit. 00:15:38.250 --> 00:15:42.090 Again, this is a very simple, theoretical exercise, 00:15:42.090 --> 00:15:44.040 but it could be useful at some point. 00:15:46.880 --> 00:15:49.610 And we'll just plug in for two examples. 00:15:49.610 --> 00:15:51.500 We have two scenarios here-- one where 00:15:51.500 --> 00:15:54.830 the population density in the CBD is 10,000 and another one 00:15:54.830 --> 00:15:56.240 where it's 20,000. 00:15:56.240 --> 00:16:00.290 For reference, in New York City, the population density 00:16:00.290 --> 00:16:03.500 is about 28,000. 00:16:03.500 --> 00:16:08.840 So these are not as high as those very dense cities. 00:16:08.840 --> 00:16:11.334 AUDIENCE: But like what is 10,000 [INAUDIBLE]?? 00:16:11.334 --> 00:16:13.500 PROFESSOR: Depends how-- again, it's the same thing. 00:16:13.500 --> 00:16:15.900 Like it depends how far you go and what 00:16:15.900 --> 00:16:17.040 you define as the center. 00:16:17.040 --> 00:16:20.220 But here are some numbers. 00:16:20.220 --> 00:16:21.420 This could be some city. 00:16:21.420 --> 00:16:21.920 Right? 00:16:21.920 --> 00:16:27.270 These are typical of some cities. 00:16:27.270 --> 00:16:30.330 So here we have some decreases and the rate 00:16:30.330 --> 00:16:33.270 of decrease in the population from the center going out. 00:16:33.270 --> 00:16:38.706 We're assuming a 40-degree angle for the shape of this. 00:16:38.706 --> 00:16:40.080 If you have a city, you know, you 00:16:40.080 --> 00:16:42.690 have several lines going in radially. 00:16:42.690 --> 00:16:45.600 This transit corridor serves about a 40-degree angle. 00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:47.100 So-- 00:16:47.100 --> 00:16:49.452 AUDIENCE: Is that-- that seems like a lot. 00:16:49.452 --> 00:16:50.410 PROFESSOR: It is a lot. 00:16:50.410 --> 00:16:51.620 AUDIENCE: Like maybe a little too much. 00:16:51.620 --> 00:16:52.730 PROFESSOR: Well, it depends how many-- 00:16:52.730 --> 00:16:55.063 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 40 degrees like in the inner part, 00:16:55.063 --> 00:16:57.495 but, you know, 40 degrees you go [INAUDIBLE] miles out. 00:16:57.495 --> 00:17:00.317 Now you're already making a [INAUDIBLE] arch. 00:17:00.317 --> 00:17:02.150 PROFESSOR: At the end, it sounds like a lot, 00:17:02.150 --> 00:17:03.608 but, at the beginning, not so much. 00:17:03.608 --> 00:17:09.569 If you think of a city, you know, and you have-- 00:17:09.569 --> 00:17:10.974 these are 90 degree angles. 00:17:10.974 --> 00:17:12.390 Right, and you add two more lines. 00:17:12.390 --> 00:17:13.390 That's 45. 00:17:13.390 --> 00:17:17.089 So we're how many lines would you have in a city? 00:17:17.089 --> 00:17:18.650 And it sort-- right? 00:17:18.650 --> 00:17:22.069 So it's not that unrealistic to think of some line 00:17:22.069 --> 00:17:26.599 with a 40-degree angle coming into the CBD from outside. 00:17:26.599 --> 00:17:31.770 And we're assuming a 10-mile length and factors-- 00:17:31.770 --> 00:17:37.730 so here we have 2.5, 0.2, 0.5, and 0.25. 00:17:37.730 --> 00:17:41.000 So that's the assumptions for the different constants 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:45.590 to convert the whole population into the number of people 00:17:45.590 --> 00:17:49.250 going inbound in the morning rush taking transit. 00:17:49.250 --> 00:17:51.590 All right, so if we plug that in, 00:17:51.590 --> 00:17:56.150 we get a required capacity of 10,000 in the first scenario 00:17:56.150 --> 00:17:57.860 and 30,000 in the other scenario. 00:17:57.860 --> 00:18:00.180 And then from that, one could say, well, 00:18:00.180 --> 00:18:04.250 can I have a bus system serving 10,000 people per hour? 00:18:04.250 --> 00:18:07.820 Or can I have a bus system or a rail system 00:18:07.820 --> 00:18:10.742 serving 30,000 people per hour. 00:18:10.742 --> 00:18:13.330 That's accommodating a flow, which this is, again, 00:18:13.330 --> 00:18:14.930 a back-of-the-napkin calculation, 00:18:14.930 --> 00:18:19.190 but it gives you an idea of, based on the characteristics 00:18:19.190 --> 00:18:22.440 of some city, what we would need. 00:18:22.440 --> 00:18:25.840 So let's look at some theoretical capacities now. 00:18:25.840 --> 00:18:30.580 So in this slide, we are looking at kind 00:18:30.580 --> 00:18:35.870 of high-end, upper bounds almost on these modes. 00:18:35.870 --> 00:18:38.300 So for rail, let's assume a very long train, 00:18:38.300 --> 00:18:42.830 which is 10 cars long, and it's packed with 200 people per car. 00:18:42.830 --> 00:18:45.490 And it runs at a high frequency, every two minutes. 00:18:45.490 --> 00:18:47.740 That gives you 60,000 passengers per hour. 00:18:47.740 --> 00:18:50.830 So that's about as much as a metro system 00:18:50.830 --> 00:18:55.870 can provide in terms of capacity or a line, metro 00:18:55.870 --> 00:18:57.732 line, a single metro line. 00:18:57.732 --> 00:19:03.110 If we look at bus, so a full bus, 70 passengers, 00:19:03.110 --> 00:19:04.420 that's quite packed. 00:19:04.420 --> 00:19:06.340 You could run, if you have multiple bays, 00:19:06.340 --> 00:19:07.930 you could run 30-second headways. 00:19:07.930 --> 00:19:11.950 So if you see, BRT corridors have capacity to do that. 00:19:11.950 --> 00:19:15.340 Obviously, if they are queuing up to serve a single stop, 00:19:15.340 --> 00:19:16.720 that could not happen. 00:19:16.720 --> 00:19:19.660 But if you have multiple bays, that can happen. 00:19:19.660 --> 00:19:24.320 So based on that assumption, you can get 8,400. 00:19:24.320 --> 00:19:26.920 All right, so that's pushing the limits of bus. 00:19:26.920 --> 00:19:30.380 BRT-- BRT vehicles are longer. 00:19:30.380 --> 00:19:32.140 So you might fit 200 people in one 00:19:32.140 --> 00:19:35.890 of these double-articulated vehicles. 00:19:35.890 --> 00:19:41.230 You might have even 20-second headways with good facilities. 00:19:41.230 --> 00:19:44.050 That gives you 36,000 passengers per hour, again, 00:19:44.050 --> 00:19:45.730 pushing the limits here. 00:19:45.730 --> 00:19:48.460 Light rail, I have to say that I'm 00:19:48.460 --> 00:19:50.426 assuming a two-car train here, but we 00:19:50.426 --> 00:19:51.550 could have three-car train. 00:19:51.550 --> 00:19:53.008 So maybe I'm not pushing the limits 00:19:53.008 --> 00:19:54.890 as much on light rail here. 00:19:54.890 --> 00:19:58.120 But based on a two-car train assumption and 150 passengers 00:19:58.120 --> 00:20:01.420 per car, which is quite a bit for a light rail car, 00:20:01.420 --> 00:20:03.940 and assuming one-minute headway, that's 00:20:03.940 --> 00:20:05.320 18,000 passengers per hour. 00:20:05.320 --> 00:20:05.820 Right? 00:20:05.820 --> 00:20:07.430 So you can compare these. 00:20:07.430 --> 00:20:09.520 And again, these are all kind of upper bounds. 00:20:09.520 --> 00:20:12.580 Maybe light rail can be pushed a little higher. 00:20:12.580 --> 00:20:16.960 But it gives you an idea of what the theoretical capacities are. 00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:19.300 So now we have this back-of-the-envelope 00:20:19.300 --> 00:20:20.710 calculation-- 00:20:20.710 --> 00:20:22.780 10,000, 30,000. 00:20:22.780 --> 00:20:25.930 And what would we need for 10,000? 00:20:25.930 --> 00:20:30.760 Could we serve that 10,000 demand with a bus? 00:20:30.760 --> 00:20:32.530 Probably not. 00:20:32.530 --> 00:20:34.960 Do we need rail, BRT, or light rail? 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:35.620 Probably so. 00:20:35.620 --> 00:20:37.110 So it gives you an idea. 00:20:37.110 --> 00:20:39.070 And if it's the 30,000 example, well, it 00:20:39.070 --> 00:20:41.500 looks like we're going to need rail. 00:20:41.500 --> 00:20:42.400 Right? 00:20:42.400 --> 00:20:45.366 Because BRT is kind of-- 00:20:45.366 --> 00:20:46.990 you're getting to the high end of that. 00:20:46.990 --> 00:20:50.280 So we're probably going to need rail for that. 00:20:50.280 --> 00:20:52.980 OK, and now let's look at what happens here in Boston. 00:20:52.980 --> 00:20:56.070 So it's much lower here, nowhere near 00:20:56.070 --> 00:20:58.400 the theoretical capacities, right, 00:20:58.400 --> 00:20:59.850 that we're talking about. 00:20:59.850 --> 00:21:02.790 These are peak-hour volumes for the different lines. 00:21:02.790 --> 00:21:06.570 So if we look at the Red Line, which is the most crowded line, 00:21:06.570 --> 00:21:09.160 in the Cambridge section, which is the most crowded, 00:21:09.160 --> 00:21:11.920 especially between Central Square and MIT-- actually, 00:21:11.920 --> 00:21:14.970 that's the highest point on the system-- 00:21:14.970 --> 00:21:19.740 we have almost 10,000 people per hour, passengers per hour. 00:21:19.740 --> 00:21:22.963 AUDIENCE: We saw in a different course-- 00:21:22.963 --> 00:21:24.504 one of the people from the T who came 00:21:24.504 --> 00:21:26.700 who was a graduate of the MST program 00:21:26.700 --> 00:21:28.457 showed slightly higher numbers than that. 00:21:28.457 --> 00:21:30.665 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so these numbers are a little dated. 00:21:30.665 --> 00:21:33.690 And it depends on how you define the peak hour. 00:21:33.690 --> 00:21:37.020 And you know, I could show you the peak 15 minutes, 00:21:37.020 --> 00:21:39.100 and that would be higher than this, for example. 00:21:39.100 --> 00:21:42.170 So if you look at the peak-- 00:21:42.170 --> 00:21:45.610 yeah, like the peak of the peak, it's even higher than this. 00:21:45.610 --> 00:21:49.316 But it still is the case that these are not approaching 00:21:49.316 --> 00:21:50.440 the theoretical capacities. 00:21:50.440 --> 00:21:52.445 And that's because we don't have, you know, 00:21:52.445 --> 00:21:57.030 two-minute headways and 10-car trains or yeah. 00:21:57.030 --> 00:22:01.270 So right, so the Orange Line, we have two sections here, 00:22:01.270 --> 00:22:04.920 the north and the southwest, similar numbers. 00:22:04.920 --> 00:22:06.395 Blue Line is slightly lower. 00:22:06.395 --> 00:22:11.300 On the Green Line, the branches do about, you know, 1,800, 00:22:11.300 --> 00:22:13.050 less than 2,000 each. 00:22:13.050 --> 00:22:17.570 So we're looking at a much lower number than the light rail 00:22:17.570 --> 00:22:20.620 theoretical capacity. 00:22:20.620 --> 00:22:23.510 And in the central subway where all these branches merge, 00:22:23.510 --> 00:22:27.955 we get a much higher demand, but it's still lower. 00:22:27.955 --> 00:22:30.080 Again, these vehicles are not running every minute. 00:22:30.080 --> 00:22:35.300 And in some cases, they are, but not consistently. 00:22:35.300 --> 00:22:40.114 And we don't fill all the vehicles, 00:22:40.114 --> 00:22:42.740 you know, to crush load for a whole hour. 00:22:42.740 --> 00:22:43.820 Right? 00:22:43.820 --> 00:22:46.520 So we're not getting that capacity. 00:22:46.520 --> 00:22:48.300 We're not delivering that capacity. 00:22:48.300 --> 00:22:49.841 So it gives you an idea where we are. 00:22:49.841 --> 00:22:52.650 If you've used the system here in Boston, 00:22:52.650 --> 00:22:56.520 you might relate taking the train at peak hour 00:22:56.520 --> 00:22:58.800 to what these numbers look like and think 00:22:58.800 --> 00:23:02.910 about what it would take to increase capacity in terms 00:23:02.910 --> 00:23:07.140 of more cars or a higher demand spread 00:23:07.140 --> 00:23:10.650 over a longer peak and things like that. 00:23:10.650 --> 00:23:14.250 OK, now let's look at worldwide urban rail systems. 00:23:14.250 --> 00:23:17.960 This is metro, and I have grouped it by continent. 00:23:17.960 --> 00:23:22.560 And it starts sort of before the 1900s. 00:23:22.560 --> 00:23:29.730 And you can see the earlier systems started in Europe-- 00:23:29.730 --> 00:23:32.590 London, Budapest. 00:23:32.590 --> 00:23:33.870 Right? 00:23:33.870 --> 00:23:36.540 And then North America followed closely after that. 00:23:36.540 --> 00:23:40.200 Boston takes the prize for the first subway. 00:23:40.200 --> 00:23:41.300 That's the Green Line. 00:23:41.300 --> 00:23:43.230 And even though we call it light rail here, 00:23:43.230 --> 00:23:46.480 we're calling it metro in the slide. 00:23:46.480 --> 00:23:49.320 So we have a few starts in North America, 00:23:49.320 --> 00:23:53.362 and it sort of falls flat in 1920s and 1930s. 00:23:53.362 --> 00:23:54.570 And then it takes off again-- 00:23:54.570 --> 00:23:56.300 1960s all the up. 00:23:56.300 --> 00:23:57.870 It keeps increasing. 00:23:57.870 --> 00:23:59.470 Asia was a little slower to start, 00:23:59.470 --> 00:24:01.980 but it's going up really fast. 00:24:01.980 --> 00:24:04.230 China is building a lot of metro. 00:24:04.230 --> 00:24:08.160 Africa, I think it has two systems right now. 00:24:08.160 --> 00:24:10.860 And there are no systems that I am aware of in Australia, 00:24:10.860 --> 00:24:13.050 but they are building one that should 00:24:13.050 --> 00:24:16.080 start before the end of this decade in Sydney. 00:24:16.080 --> 00:24:18.960 So they're going forward with that. 00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:21.240 So this is, you know-- 00:24:21.240 --> 00:24:23.040 you can see that we're building metro 00:24:23.040 --> 00:24:24.616 and that it goes together with what 00:24:24.616 --> 00:24:25.740 we said on the first class. 00:24:25.740 --> 00:24:27.130 Population is increasing. 00:24:27.130 --> 00:24:29.100 And especially urban population is increasing. 00:24:29.100 --> 00:24:32.610 People are moving away from rural areas into cities. 00:24:32.610 --> 00:24:36.290 The required capacities to have agglomeration benefits 00:24:36.290 --> 00:24:40.230 and avoid traffic and air pollution problems 00:24:40.230 --> 00:24:45.390 is requiring higher density, higher flow systems like metro. 00:24:45.390 --> 00:24:46.290 Questions? 00:24:46.290 --> 00:24:48.615 AUDIENCE: So you've got Australia has some very 00:24:48.615 --> 00:24:50.490 dense cities of course. 00:24:50.490 --> 00:24:51.670 How do they move people in? 00:24:51.670 --> 00:24:53.604 Like do they have BRT systems? 00:24:53.604 --> 00:24:55.020 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so they have BRT. 00:24:55.020 --> 00:24:56.280 They have light rail. 00:24:56.280 --> 00:24:58.310 AUDIENCE: Melbourne has the longest light rail 00:24:58.310 --> 00:24:59.500 network in the world. 00:24:59.500 --> 00:25:01.880 PROFESSOR: Yeah, and they have pretty good BRT. 00:25:01.880 --> 00:25:06.309 AUDIENCE: The bulk of Melbourne is electric commuter trains 00:25:06.309 --> 00:25:08.225 that operate at sort of subway-level headways. 00:25:08.225 --> 00:25:09.939 So it wouldn't be included in your-- 00:25:09.939 --> 00:25:11.980 PROFESSOR: So yeah, we're not counting them here. 00:25:11.980 --> 00:25:15.750 And so good point, it's hard to-- 00:25:15.750 --> 00:25:18.960 there are many ways of accounting for systems here. 00:25:18.960 --> 00:25:21.095 Sometimes, you know-- 00:25:21.095 --> 00:25:23.119 AUDIENCE: Commuter rail and heavy rail. 00:25:23.119 --> 00:25:24.660 PROFESSOR: Yeah, that might be mixed. 00:25:24.660 --> 00:25:26.700 Or do they count those as two or as one 00:25:26.700 --> 00:25:28.950 if there are different systems in one city? 00:25:28.950 --> 00:25:32.340 I've tried here to count each city as one system, 00:25:32.340 --> 00:25:34.150 even if there are multiple systems. 00:25:34.150 --> 00:25:39.240 So for example, I'm not counting the Tube in London 00:25:39.240 --> 00:25:41.880 and Docklands Light Railway as two systems. 00:25:41.880 --> 00:25:43.184 I'm counting them as one. 00:25:43.184 --> 00:25:44.850 But some people would count them as two. 00:25:44.850 --> 00:25:47.610 So there is some arbitrary choice 00:25:47.610 --> 00:25:50.370 to be made here in accounting, but it gives you 00:25:50.370 --> 00:25:52.860 an idea of what the trends are and how we are moving 00:25:52.860 --> 00:25:55.670 and how it started and where we are right now. 00:25:55.670 --> 00:25:58.932 Here's light rail, light rail and streetcar. 00:25:58.932 --> 00:26:00.390 So if we only looked at light rail, 00:26:00.390 --> 00:26:01.250 it wouldn't look like this. 00:26:01.250 --> 00:26:02.750 This includes streetcars, and that's 00:26:02.750 --> 00:26:11.750 why we start so early before the 1900s in Europe and Asia 00:26:11.750 --> 00:26:12.860 as well. 00:26:12.860 --> 00:26:15.860 And then North America really didn't follow until much 00:26:15.860 --> 00:26:17.070 more recently. 00:26:17.070 --> 00:26:20.370 AUDIENCE: Well, North America, it's like [INAUDIBLE].. 00:26:20.370 --> 00:26:23.027 If you include North America, every city had streetcars. 00:26:23.027 --> 00:26:25.235 PROFESSOR: Yeah, but they're not operating right now. 00:26:25.235 --> 00:26:25.730 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 00:26:25.730 --> 00:26:27.210 PROFESSOR: Yeah, but they're not currently operating. 00:26:27.210 --> 00:26:27.830 AUDIENCE: You would see [INAUDIBLE].. 00:26:27.830 --> 00:26:29.210 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so that's right. 00:26:29.210 --> 00:26:30.420 So that's another good point. 00:26:30.420 --> 00:26:32.810 So if we included things that were operating 00:26:32.810 --> 00:26:35.510 and no longer dropped, then this graph would go up 00:26:35.510 --> 00:26:36.140 and then down. 00:26:36.140 --> 00:26:37.580 And these are based on statistics 00:26:37.580 --> 00:26:40.850 of currently-operating systems that started at some point 00:26:40.850 --> 00:26:41.670 in the past. 00:26:41.670 --> 00:26:42.170 Right? 00:26:42.170 --> 00:26:44.400 So that's a good point. 00:26:44.400 --> 00:26:46.320 Thank you for bringing that up. 00:26:46.320 --> 00:26:51.980 And we see here Africa, Oceania, so Australia-- 00:26:51.980 --> 00:26:56.000 and let's see. 00:26:56.000 --> 00:26:59.000 Yeah, Africa, South America, and Australia 00:26:59.000 --> 00:27:00.140 don't have many systems. 00:27:00.140 --> 00:27:00.640 Right? 00:27:00.640 --> 00:27:05.990 So mainly, we have [INAUDIBLE] in Asia, 00:27:05.990 --> 00:27:08.400 and increasingly so in North America, 00:27:08.400 --> 00:27:11.060 but not at the same level as in Asia. 00:27:11.060 --> 00:27:15.360 Obviously, that has to do with the size of the cities 00:27:15.360 --> 00:27:17.370 and the number of large cities as well. 00:27:17.370 --> 00:27:24.210 So OK, capital costs, so these are based, once more, 00:27:24.210 --> 00:27:28.570 on the NTD numbers, the National Transit Database. 00:27:28.570 --> 00:27:33.560 These are 2013 numbers that were published in the 2015 APTA Fact 00:27:33.560 --> 00:27:34.100 Book. 00:27:34.100 --> 00:27:37.260 And you can download that on Stellar 00:27:37.260 --> 00:27:39.600 if you want to look at these in detail. 00:27:39.600 --> 00:27:43.740 So $18.2 billion was spent in capital costs, 00:27:43.740 --> 00:27:46.600 and we're going to look at how that cost was distributed. 00:27:46.600 --> 00:27:49.320 So if we look at by type, about a quarter of that 00:27:49.320 --> 00:27:53.430 was spent on purchasing vehicles or rehauling old vehicles 00:27:53.430 --> 00:27:56.010 for their midlife repair. 00:27:56.010 --> 00:28:00.480 And about 60% was spent on infrastructure and facilities. 00:28:00.480 --> 00:28:05.130 All right, so that could include new rail lines or extensions, 00:28:05.130 --> 00:28:11.880 repairs of those, bus stops, maintenance facilities, right, 00:28:11.880 --> 00:28:13.590 offices, things like that. 00:28:13.590 --> 00:28:17.940 And then about 15%, 16% was spent on other things. 00:28:17.940 --> 00:28:23.470 Those other things could be AFC systems, other things that 00:28:23.470 --> 00:28:24.860 are not vehicles or facilities. 00:28:24.860 --> 00:28:25.360 Right? 00:28:25.360 --> 00:28:28.540 So OK, by mode, about a quarter was 00:28:28.540 --> 00:28:32.980 spent on bus projects, about 35% on heavy rail projects, 00:28:32.980 --> 00:28:36.310 and then less, a little less, on commuter rail and light rail, 00:28:36.310 --> 00:28:38.500 and then 5% in other modes. 00:28:38.500 --> 00:28:41.870 And that's mostly paratransit or demand responsive, as they 00:28:41.870 --> 00:28:44.530 [INAUDIBLE] APTA Fact Book. 00:28:44.530 --> 00:28:51.150 So it gives you an idea of how the US, on any given year, 00:28:51.150 --> 00:28:54.990 distributes the capital expenditures. 00:28:54.990 --> 00:28:59.210 You might think that, from year to year, 00:28:59.210 --> 00:29:03.290 these costs vary a lot because capital investments are 00:29:03.290 --> 00:29:03.870 very lumpy. 00:29:03.870 --> 00:29:04.370 Right? 00:29:04.370 --> 00:29:05.630 You don't have them, and, all of a sudden, 00:29:05.630 --> 00:29:07.509 you invest a lot of money into a system. 00:29:07.509 --> 00:29:09.050 But because there are so many cities, 00:29:09.050 --> 00:29:12.110 they don't actually vary that much. 00:29:12.110 --> 00:29:14.840 And the other reason that doesn't happen 00:29:14.840 --> 00:29:19.030 is because a lot of the expenditures are gradual. 00:29:19.030 --> 00:29:21.880 So it takes several years to build new lines. 00:29:21.880 --> 00:29:25.360 So they are distributed over several years, 00:29:25.360 --> 00:29:26.740 instead of all at once. 00:29:29.610 --> 00:29:32.160 And here we have the breakdown by mode and type 00:29:32.160 --> 00:29:32.940 at the same time. 00:29:32.940 --> 00:29:38.070 So about-- the key takeaway here is so $4.5 billion 00:29:38.070 --> 00:29:40.980 was spent on bus projects. 00:29:40.980 --> 00:29:43.950 And about half of that was on vehicles and about half 00:29:43.950 --> 00:29:47.310 was on facilities, the repair facilities, bus stops, 00:29:47.310 --> 00:29:49.590 things of that nature. 00:29:49.590 --> 00:29:53.610 When we look at rail, the percent spent on vehicles 00:29:53.610 --> 00:29:54.400 is much lower. 00:29:54.400 --> 00:29:58.360 It's about 10% to 20%, 7% to 20% in this case, 00:29:58.360 --> 00:30:00.720 depending on the specific rail mode. 00:30:00.720 --> 00:30:04.842 And closer to 90% is spent on infrastructure and facilities. 00:30:04.842 --> 00:30:05.550 That makes sense. 00:30:05.550 --> 00:30:06.050 Right? 00:30:06.050 --> 00:30:07.350 You have to lay-- 00:30:07.350 --> 00:30:08.700 you have to sort of put rail. 00:30:08.700 --> 00:30:11.490 You have to build stations. 00:30:11.490 --> 00:30:13.510 The maintenance yards are more expensive. 00:30:13.510 --> 00:30:16.320 So these are bigger projects. 00:30:16.320 --> 00:30:21.010 To the extent that the right of way is a subway, 00:30:21.010 --> 00:30:22.030 then you have to dig. 00:30:22.030 --> 00:30:24.900 And so it's very expensive. 00:30:24.900 --> 00:30:29.160 And here you have the total expenditure, capital cost 00:30:29.160 --> 00:30:29.810 by mode. 00:30:29.810 --> 00:30:34.170 And so 4.5 on bus, 6.2 on heavy rail, 3 on commuter rail, 00:30:34.170 --> 00:30:35.250 3.5 on light rail. 00:30:38.016 --> 00:30:40.640 OK, and now focusing on infrastructure costs, 00:30:40.640 --> 00:30:44.715 so what drives the infrastructure costs? 00:30:44.715 --> 00:30:46.340 First, the type of construction, right, 00:30:46.340 --> 00:30:49.190 so if we look at heavy rail, you could 00:30:49.190 --> 00:30:52.430 build at grade, so leveled on the street 00:30:52.430 --> 00:30:55.430 or on sort of new lands that you don't 00:30:55.430 --> 00:30:58.100 have to acquire from anyone. 00:30:58.100 --> 00:30:59.600 That's the least expensive. 00:30:59.600 --> 00:31:00.736 Then you move to elevated. 00:31:00.736 --> 00:31:02.360 If you have to go over streets, and you 00:31:02.360 --> 00:31:07.100 have an elevated section, that's the second most expensive. 00:31:07.100 --> 00:31:09.370 And then subway tends to be the most expensive. 00:31:09.370 --> 00:31:11.390 And there are two ways of doing that. 00:31:11.390 --> 00:31:12.450 There's cut and cover. 00:31:12.450 --> 00:31:13.700 So that's a shallow tunnel. 00:31:13.700 --> 00:31:14.900 You dig a hole. 00:31:14.900 --> 00:31:18.140 You put the rail lines, and then you build a roof on top of it, 00:31:18.140 --> 00:31:20.150 and cars drive over it. 00:31:20.150 --> 00:31:21.470 That's shallow tunnel. 00:31:21.470 --> 00:31:24.200 And then there's deep tunnel, which is the most expensive. 00:31:24.200 --> 00:31:26.840 That tends to be with a tunnel boring machine. 00:31:26.840 --> 00:31:31.650 So you get these huge machines that drill the hole. 00:31:31.650 --> 00:31:35.300 They're very fun to learn about and look it. 00:31:35.300 --> 00:31:37.880 I encourage you to YouTube them. 00:31:37.880 --> 00:31:41.450 And they are usually built for the project. 00:31:41.450 --> 00:31:43.730 And when they finish digging, they 00:31:43.730 --> 00:31:45.350 are sort of taken off course. 00:31:45.350 --> 00:31:49.340 And they sort of remain interred at the level. 00:31:49.340 --> 00:31:52.790 So they're kind of used once, and there you go. 00:31:52.790 --> 00:31:57.860 So London has used a lot of these for their very deep Tube. 00:31:57.860 --> 00:32:00.563 And yeah, you should look at these on YouTube. 00:32:00.563 --> 00:32:02.354 AUDIENCE: In New York, it's kind of common. 00:32:02.354 --> 00:32:04.074 Right? 00:32:04.074 --> 00:32:04.990 PROFESSOR: Yeah, yeah. 00:32:04.990 --> 00:32:06.240 AUDIENCE: It basically goes along the avenues. 00:32:06.240 --> 00:32:08.131 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so in London, we have both. 00:32:08.131 --> 00:32:08.630 Right? 00:32:08.630 --> 00:32:11.294 So the earlier lines like the Central Line and the-- 00:32:11.294 --> 00:32:12.960 AUDIENCE: Yeah, the Circle and District. 00:32:12.960 --> 00:32:13.940 PROFESSOR: The Circle and District Lines 00:32:13.940 --> 00:32:15.770 are definitely cut and cover. 00:32:15.770 --> 00:32:17.731 And then the Silver Line is very deep. 00:32:17.731 --> 00:32:18.230 Right? 00:32:18.230 --> 00:32:20.530 And so that's a tunnel boring machine. 00:32:20.530 --> 00:32:22.530 AUDIENCE: Can you give a sense of the difference 00:32:22.530 --> 00:32:27.536 between let's say at grade, elevated, and shallow and deep? 00:32:27.536 --> 00:32:29.660 PROFESSOR: Maybe I should have shown some pictures. 00:32:29.660 --> 00:32:32.075 But at grade is just at street level. 00:32:32.075 --> 00:32:34.357 AUDIENCE: No, I know, but like the difference in cost. 00:32:34.357 --> 00:32:34.940 PROFESSOR: Oh. 00:32:34.940 --> 00:32:36.260 AUDIENCE: Like cost per mile. 00:32:36.260 --> 00:32:37.550 PROFESSOR: Oh, I'll give some examples 00:32:37.550 --> 00:32:38.570 in the next few slides. 00:32:38.570 --> 00:32:40.370 Yeah, that's a good segue. 00:32:40.370 --> 00:32:43.320 So the other key factors are land acquisition and clearance. 00:32:43.320 --> 00:32:45.140 So if you're building a new line, 00:32:45.140 --> 00:32:48.830 and you have to use eminent domain and sort of buy property 00:32:48.830 --> 00:32:51.710 from people who own them, who own that property, 00:32:51.710 --> 00:32:55.010 to build your new line, that costs some money. 00:32:55.010 --> 00:32:58.670 Also, the number, size, complexity, and length 00:32:58.670 --> 00:32:59.840 of the stations-- 00:32:59.840 --> 00:33:03.170 so station design is a key component here 00:33:03.170 --> 00:33:04.730 and the complexity of the system. 00:33:04.730 --> 00:33:05.930 Is this an independent line? 00:33:05.930 --> 00:33:08.250 Or are there many points of transfer? 00:33:08.250 --> 00:33:11.990 And how do you coordinate that? 00:33:11.990 --> 00:33:14.750 During construction, do you have to keep operating 00:33:14.750 --> 00:33:15.950 some parts of the line? 00:33:15.950 --> 00:33:17.630 How do you manage that? 00:33:17.630 --> 00:33:21.470 So if you look at, for example, the repair 00:33:21.470 --> 00:33:25.190 of the bridge, the Longfellow Bridge here in Boston, 00:33:25.190 --> 00:33:28.760 we wanted to do that with rail, for the most part, running. 00:33:28.760 --> 00:33:31.760 So that has increased the costs of that project. 00:33:31.760 --> 00:33:34.010 You couldn't just take the bridge down and rebuild it. 00:33:34.010 --> 00:33:37.490 And we wouldn't have the Red Line for a long time. 00:33:40.850 --> 00:33:44.162 OK, so here are some typical costs. 00:33:44.162 --> 00:33:45.370 Here are some, four examples. 00:33:45.370 --> 00:33:46.390 Right? 00:33:46.390 --> 00:33:47.980 And they vary a lot, but it gives you 00:33:47.980 --> 00:33:49.730 some idea of the magnitude of these costs. 00:33:49.730 --> 00:33:54.060 So Tren Urbano was one of the most recent systems. 00:33:54.060 --> 00:33:56.960 It was built in 2002 in San Juan, Puerto Rico. 00:33:56.960 --> 00:34:00.130 And it 50% at grade, about 40% elevated, 00:34:00.130 --> 00:34:03.400 and 10% subway, just a small section that was subway. 00:34:03.400 --> 00:34:06.620 It cost about $2 billion to build. 00:34:06.620 --> 00:34:08.830 And if you divide that by the length of the corridor, 00:34:08.830 --> 00:34:13.850 it comes out to $118 million per kilometer. 00:34:13.850 --> 00:34:14.350 Right? 00:34:14.350 --> 00:34:16.960 So it gives you an idea of what it takes. 00:34:16.960 --> 00:34:20.350 The MBTA Red Line in 1984, it was extended 00:34:20.350 --> 00:34:23.830 to Alewife from Harvard. 00:34:23.830 --> 00:34:27.520 And that was 5 kilometer extension, four stations. 00:34:27.520 --> 00:34:28.989 It was all subway. 00:34:28.989 --> 00:34:33.639 So it cost $0.6 billion of $600 million. 00:34:33.639 --> 00:34:37.710 And that comes up to $120 million per kilometer. 00:34:37.710 --> 00:34:41.199 All these figures are in the dollar numbers of the year 00:34:41.199 --> 00:34:45.159 that they were built. They're not adjusted for inflation. 00:34:45.159 --> 00:34:47.340 Then we have the Los Angeles MTA. 00:34:47.340 --> 00:34:50.730 That was a new system started in the late 1980s. 00:34:50.730 --> 00:34:53.580 It was all subway, 7 kilometers. 00:34:53.580 --> 00:34:57.870 $1.2 billion comes out to $180 million 00:34:57.870 --> 00:35:02.220 per kilometer, so same range, right, or similar. 00:35:02.220 --> 00:35:06.070 I mean, obviously, from 120 to 180, it's 60 million. 00:35:06.070 --> 00:35:08.490 That's a lot of money, but same ballpark, 00:35:08.490 --> 00:35:10.280 same order of magnitude. 00:35:10.280 --> 00:35:14.160 WMATA was cheaper on a unit cost basis. 00:35:14.160 --> 00:35:19.580 It was built over several decades, multiple phases, 100 00:35:19.580 --> 00:35:23.700 kilometers, so lots of stations, lots of distance covered. 00:35:23.700 --> 00:35:26.340 It's a mix of subway, elevated, and at grade. 00:35:26.340 --> 00:35:31.950 And it cost $6.4 billion, and that comes out to $60 million 00:35:31.950 --> 00:35:32.930 per kilometer. 00:35:32.930 --> 00:35:34.301 So yeah. 00:35:34.301 --> 00:35:34.800 Question? 00:35:34.800 --> 00:35:36.702 AUDIENCE: Can you say what is WMATA again. 00:35:36.702 --> 00:35:38.910 PROFESSOR: WMATA is the Washington metro, Washington, 00:35:38.910 --> 00:35:39.210 DC. 00:35:39.210 --> 00:35:39.810 AUDIENCE: Washington, DC. 00:35:39.810 --> 00:35:41.143 PROFESSOR: Washington, DC, yeah. 00:35:43.940 --> 00:35:45.440 Yeah, [INAUDIBLE]. 00:35:45.440 --> 00:35:53.910 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] So since this-- 00:35:53.910 --> 00:35:54.933 PROFESSOR: In one year. 00:35:54.933 --> 00:35:55.558 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:35:55.558 --> 00:35:57.540 So since this remains the same across years-- 00:35:57.540 --> 00:35:58.540 PROFESSOR: More or less. 00:35:58.540 --> 00:36:00.590 It varies, but it doesn't vary drastically 00:36:00.590 --> 00:36:02.050 is what I wanted to say. 00:36:02.050 --> 00:36:04.440 AUDIENCE: So would that mean that in fact we're 00:36:04.440 --> 00:36:07.605 declining the amount we spend on transportation because this 00:36:07.605 --> 00:36:11.260 is not inflation adjusted? 00:36:11.260 --> 00:36:13.010 PROFESSOR: This is not inflation adjusted. 00:36:13.010 --> 00:36:13.600 That's right. 00:36:13.600 --> 00:36:14.570 AUDIENCE: So it's the [INAUDIBLE] 00:36:14.570 --> 00:36:15.444 are declining, right? 00:36:15.444 --> 00:36:16.580 [INAUDIBLE] 00:36:16.580 --> 00:36:18.912 PROFESSOR: For heavy rail, yes. 00:36:18.912 --> 00:36:20.447 Yeah, maybe, yeah. 00:36:23.130 --> 00:36:25.040 We're building a lot of light rail and stuff. 00:36:25.040 --> 00:36:31.019 But there is still some expansion or repair or-- 00:36:31.019 --> 00:36:33.060 AUDIENCE: Does this mean the Second Avenue subway 00:36:33.060 --> 00:36:35.590 extension isn't in the same order of magnitude 00:36:35.590 --> 00:36:36.415 as any other-- 00:36:36.415 --> 00:36:38.790 PROFESSOR: I'm not familiar with the unit costs for that. 00:36:38.790 --> 00:36:40.650 AUDIENCE: I read it was like $2 billion per kilometer. 00:36:40.650 --> 00:36:42.840 PROFESSOR: Yeah, I mean it depends on many things. 00:36:42.840 --> 00:36:44.960 So-- 00:36:44.960 --> 00:36:46.395 AUDIENCE: Well, so recent lines, I 00:36:46.395 --> 00:36:48.846 mean Seattle was about $1 billion per. 00:36:48.846 --> 00:36:51.900 And San Francisco Central Subway was about $1 billion per. 00:36:51.900 --> 00:36:54.250 So modern subways are-- the stupid GLX, 00:36:54.250 --> 00:36:56.210 the Tremont extension was $500 million 00:36:56.210 --> 00:36:59.300 because the T can't procure a project out of their butts, 00:36:59.300 --> 00:37:02.610 but it's still still four times cheaper 00:37:02.610 --> 00:37:04.320 than Second Avenue subway. 00:37:04.320 --> 00:37:06.742 Well, but it's also being built at grade, 00:37:06.742 --> 00:37:07.950 and it gets the right of way. 00:37:11.582 --> 00:37:13.252 PROFESSOR: So many factors there. 00:37:13.252 --> 00:37:14.460 Let's look at light rail now. 00:37:14.460 --> 00:37:22.480 So LA MTA, 30 kilometers at grade, so a long distance, 00:37:22.480 --> 00:37:23.580 but all at grade-- 00:37:23.580 --> 00:37:27.940 $690 million, this includes stations and vehicles. 00:37:27.940 --> 00:37:31.100 That comes to $23 million per kilometer. 00:37:31.100 --> 00:37:33.680 So you can see that these costs are a lot lower. 00:37:33.680 --> 00:37:38.260 A lot of that has to do with it being at grade and also 00:37:38.260 --> 00:37:40.017 not being as complex of a system. 00:37:40.017 --> 00:37:41.100 Yeah, you have a question. 00:37:41.100 --> 00:37:44.980 AUDIENCE: Yeah, are these costs for just the parts 00:37:44.980 --> 00:37:49.446 that were built in the late 1980s and not over time. 00:37:49.446 --> 00:37:52.794 Like the most recent one is not included in that. 00:37:52.794 --> 00:37:54.710 PROFESSOR: Not including the most recent ones, 00:37:54.710 --> 00:37:56.620 that's correct, yeah. 00:37:56.620 --> 00:38:00.520 So Buffalo, 10 kilometers, but subway, 00:38:00.520 --> 00:38:02.830 cost almost the same, even though it 00:38:02.830 --> 00:38:04.030 was a third of the length. 00:38:04.030 --> 00:38:08.410 It comes out to $53 million per kilometer. 00:38:08.410 --> 00:38:10.360 Santa Clara, 30 kilometers at grade, 00:38:10.360 --> 00:38:16.677 so very similar to LA MTA, about $500 million, $16 million 00:38:16.677 --> 00:38:17.260 per kilometer. 00:38:17.260 --> 00:38:19.240 So you can see that, even in similar systems, 00:38:19.240 --> 00:38:21.610 there are other details that might affect cost 00:38:21.610 --> 00:38:24.020 significantly. 00:38:24.020 --> 00:38:26.680 And then Portland, mid 1980s, 24 kilometers 00:38:26.680 --> 00:38:33.040 at grade, $214 million, about $9 million per kilometer-- so 00:38:33.040 --> 00:38:37.450 that was the cheapest of these examples on a unit cost basis. 00:38:37.450 --> 00:38:41.200 AUDIENCE: Remind us what a light rail subway is again. 00:38:41.200 --> 00:38:46.020 PROFESSOR: So yeah, these are terms that are arbitrary, 00:38:46.020 --> 00:38:49.810 but our stereotypical definition that we are using here 00:38:49.810 --> 00:38:55.250 is a lot of it tends to be at grade, not always. 00:38:55.250 --> 00:38:56.590 It could be subway. 00:38:56.590 --> 00:39:00.460 It tends to have electricity from pickup lines on the top. 00:39:04.040 --> 00:39:07.730 You might have some sections where people board sort 00:39:07.730 --> 00:39:08.970 of straight from the streets. 00:39:08.970 --> 00:39:12.950 All right, so there is not a special platform where-- 00:39:12.950 --> 00:39:16.610 like a subway station where people tap into a gate 00:39:16.610 --> 00:39:18.110 and move in. 00:39:18.110 --> 00:39:19.252 AUDIENCE: This is not that. 00:39:19.252 --> 00:39:20.210 PROFESSOR: Right, yeah. 00:39:20.210 --> 00:39:20.950 AUDIENCE: Light rail subway. 00:39:20.950 --> 00:39:21.620 PROFESSOR: Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:39:21.620 --> 00:39:21.910 So-- 00:39:21.910 --> 00:39:22.570 AUDIENCE: People are walking into the-- 00:39:22.570 --> 00:39:24.080 PROFESSOR: Yeah, so when we look at heavy rail, 00:39:24.080 --> 00:39:26.150 we're thinking about things like the Red Line 00:39:26.150 --> 00:39:27.942 and the Blue Line and the Orange Line here. 00:39:27.942 --> 00:39:29.316 When we look at light rail, we're 00:39:29.316 --> 00:39:31.800 thinking more like streetcars and the Green Line here 00:39:31.800 --> 00:39:33.721 in Boston. 00:39:33.721 --> 00:39:34.220 Right? 00:39:34.220 --> 00:39:35.977 So the Green Line is more like light rail. 00:39:35.977 --> 00:39:37.560 Even though it has the subway portion, 00:39:37.560 --> 00:39:42.160 it's operating like a light rail in some part, subway part. 00:39:42.160 --> 00:39:49.050 Yeah, but if we look at other countries, 00:39:49.050 --> 00:39:51.300 some systems are called light rail. 00:39:51.300 --> 00:39:54.450 Docklands Light Rail in London, false-- 00:39:54.450 --> 00:39:56.340 if we describe it, we would classify it 00:39:56.340 --> 00:39:58.920 as heavy rail with these descriptions. 00:39:58.920 --> 00:40:03.150 And in Asia, we see a lot of systems 00:40:03.150 --> 00:40:06.720 called light rail, which are, by these descriptions, heavy rail. 00:40:06.720 --> 00:40:12.090 So the terms are used with caution. 00:40:12.090 --> 00:40:17.180 OK, busways, so the South Boston Transitway was 2 kilometers. 00:40:17.180 --> 00:40:22.910 That was the Silver Line tunnel, right, cost $606 million-- 00:40:22.910 --> 00:40:25.800 that does include the purchase of vehicles-- 00:40:25.800 --> 00:40:30.880 and so $303, of course, million per kilometer. 00:40:30.880 --> 00:40:35.000 TransMilenio was 36 kilometers at grade in the early 2000s, 00:40:35.000 --> 00:40:39.380 $200 million, $5 million per kilometer. 00:40:39.380 --> 00:40:43.050 Seattle, 2 kilometer of bus tunnel, $319-- 00:40:43.050 --> 00:40:43.880 $160. 00:40:43.880 --> 00:40:46.490 So the takeaway here is, if you're making a tunnel, 00:40:46.490 --> 00:40:49.351 you can see that the first and third examples are tunnels. 00:40:49.351 --> 00:40:49.850 Right? 00:40:49.850 --> 00:40:52.670 And they cost a lot more in the hundreds of millions. 00:40:52.670 --> 00:40:55.280 And the three that are at grade, second, fourth, 00:40:55.280 --> 00:41:00.440 and fifth examples, two of them in the 36, 35 kilometer, 00:41:00.440 --> 00:41:03.220 and this one a little shorter, are 00:41:03.220 --> 00:41:09.746 in the two-digit, single-digit million dollars per kilometer. 00:41:09.746 --> 00:41:11.329 AUDIENCE: TransMilenio, you're talking 00:41:11.329 --> 00:41:14.430 about like the first, initial-- 00:41:14.430 --> 00:41:16.470 PROFESSOR: Because they've kept growing 00:41:16.470 --> 00:41:18.180 is what you're saying, right? 00:41:18.180 --> 00:41:19.410 I don't know-- 00:41:19.410 --> 00:41:24.390 I don't remember what range of years this includes exactly. 00:41:24.390 --> 00:41:28.950 But yeah, I'm saying, you know, whatever 00:41:28.950 --> 00:41:32.590 they were sort of starting to operate in 2001. 00:41:32.590 --> 00:41:34.680 Yeah. 00:41:34.680 --> 00:41:36.790 And you can see here 36 kilometers at grade. 00:41:36.790 --> 00:41:38.890 So we could then go look and see what 00:41:38.890 --> 00:41:41.200 is that 36 kilometers at grade that they 00:41:41.200 --> 00:41:43.390 built around 2001 to see. 00:41:43.390 --> 00:41:45.370 If they've expanded more recently, 00:41:45.370 --> 00:41:46.820 that's probably not included here. 00:41:46.820 --> 00:41:47.320 Yeah. 00:41:49.910 --> 00:41:51.590 Any other questions? 00:41:51.590 --> 00:41:54.920 So these are examples to give you an idea of what it costs 00:41:54.920 --> 00:41:56.920 or what it has cost. 00:41:56.920 --> 00:42:03.150 OK, generic costs for rail, so it 00:42:03.150 --> 00:42:05.690 costs from about $2 to $2.5 million 00:42:05.690 --> 00:42:08.450 per car for a heavy rail train. 00:42:08.450 --> 00:42:12.320 So if you calculate what capacity you need, and you 00:42:12.320 --> 00:42:14.870 think you need a fleet of 200 vehicles, 00:42:14.870 --> 00:42:17.545 you can take these numbers and multiply by $2.5 million. 00:42:17.545 --> 00:42:18.920 You have some idea of how much it 00:42:18.920 --> 00:42:21.530 costs to purchase your fleet. 00:42:21.530 --> 00:42:31.160 Some recent-- a recent CNR, it was a large procurement. 00:42:31.160 --> 00:42:32.870 And that helps bring the unit cost down. 00:42:32.870 --> 00:42:38.300 So 284 cars replaced Orange and Red Line vehicles. 00:42:38.300 --> 00:42:42.140 Siemens in 2010, it was about $2.3 million per car. 00:42:42.140 --> 00:42:45.650 That was for 94 Blue Line cars. 00:42:45.650 --> 00:42:50.240 Then we have Hyundai Rotem, $2.3 million 00:42:50.240 --> 00:42:53.240 per car-- these are 75 commuter rail cars, 00:42:53.240 --> 00:42:55.590 rather than heavy rail cars. 00:42:55.590 --> 00:43:00.740 Breda, $2 million per car-- these are the Green Line 00:43:00.740 --> 00:43:02.850 cars, 95 of them. 00:43:02.850 --> 00:43:08.450 And the last example are locomotives for commuter rail, 00:43:08.450 --> 00:43:10.710 $5.7 million per locomotive. 00:43:10.710 --> 00:43:15.950 So they cost more, but these are not all passenger cars. 00:43:15.950 --> 00:43:22.510 These are the locomotives for the commuter rail system. 00:43:22.510 --> 00:43:26.450 And for bus, so a standard bus, a CNG bus, 00:43:26.450 --> 00:43:29.350 the Compressed Natural Gas, these 00:43:29.350 --> 00:43:31.600 are, again, recent MBTA orders-- 00:43:31.600 --> 00:43:36.910 the generic cost, $300,000, $350,000 about per bus. 00:43:36.910 --> 00:43:40.590 There was an order to NABI, and it 00:43:40.590 --> 00:43:42.640 was for 300 vehicles in 2004. 00:43:42.640 --> 00:43:47.920 And that was $320,000 per bus. 00:43:47.920 --> 00:43:53.590 Trolley, 40-foot trolley is about $1 million per trolley. 00:43:53.590 --> 00:43:58.698 These are the sort of electric Silver Line vehicles I think. 00:43:58.698 --> 00:44:00.410 I'm pretty sure. 00:44:00.410 --> 00:44:08.150 The articulated, 60-foot CNG buses, 44 vehicles in 2003, 00:44:08.150 --> 00:44:10.904 and the articulated, dual-mode, 60-foot buses-- 00:44:10.904 --> 00:44:13.070 this is Silver Line, the one that runs in the tunnel 00:44:13.070 --> 00:44:15.230 and goes out to the airport-- 00:44:15.230 --> 00:44:18.840 $1.6 million, 32 vehicles, 2004. 00:44:18.840 --> 00:44:19.340 Yeah. 00:44:19.340 --> 00:44:21.090 AUDIENCE: Maybe this is already happening, 00:44:21.090 --> 00:44:23.040 but is there any move for different transport 00:44:23.040 --> 00:44:24.940 organizations to consolidate their designs 00:44:24.940 --> 00:44:28.400 and like be able to reuse vehicle design and bus design? 00:44:28.400 --> 00:44:32.547 Like why are there separate things for all cities? 00:44:32.547 --> 00:44:34.630 PROFESSOR: That's a good question, but a lot of it 00:44:34.630 --> 00:44:36.070 is cultural. 00:44:36.070 --> 00:44:39.820 There are-- so for example, Green Line here 00:44:39.820 --> 00:44:43.670 has sort of specific needs with respect to like turning radius, 00:44:43.670 --> 00:44:50.890 and they have a lot of steep grades in some sections. 00:44:50.890 --> 00:44:54.430 They're also used to a certain type of vehicle. 00:44:54.430 --> 00:44:58.570 So they're more comfortable procuring 00:44:58.570 --> 00:45:01.500 vehicles that are similar to what they've had in the past. 00:45:01.500 --> 00:45:05.710 So there's some resistance to trying something very new all 00:45:05.710 --> 00:45:08.140 of a sudden. 00:45:08.140 --> 00:45:13.030 But there are some vehicles that are very common, especially 00:45:13.030 --> 00:45:14.610 in newer systems. 00:45:14.610 --> 00:45:16.407 And they tend to be a little cheaper. 00:45:16.407 --> 00:45:19.120 So yeah, if you can get big orders, 00:45:19.120 --> 00:45:20.620 or if you're a small system, and you 00:45:20.620 --> 00:45:24.280 can partner with someone else when they are procuring 00:45:24.280 --> 00:45:26.320 to procure additional vehicles-- instead 00:45:26.320 --> 00:45:29.770 of you doing 10 yourself, you add yourself 00:45:29.770 --> 00:45:31.140 to an order of 100. 00:45:31.140 --> 00:45:33.080 You get a lower price. 00:45:33.080 --> 00:45:34.430 So yeah? 00:45:34.430 --> 00:45:35.930 AUDIENCE: But then there's certainly 00:45:35.930 --> 00:45:38.570 two examples of that in streetcars, the most recent 00:45:38.570 --> 00:45:42.470 one, which was when the Boston and San Francisco bought 00:45:42.470 --> 00:45:44.510 a similar design for streetcars in the '70s, 00:45:44.510 --> 00:45:46.730 and both got a crappy product. 00:45:46.730 --> 00:45:50.390 But 50 years before when the PCC cars, the ones that still 00:45:50.390 --> 00:45:52.910 run down in Mattapan, was a sort of standardized streetcar 00:45:52.910 --> 00:45:55.920 design over most of the country, and that worked really well. 00:45:55.920 --> 00:45:57.420 So it has been done, but-- 00:45:57.420 --> 00:45:59.680 PROFESSOR: Yeah, and still is done, I think. 00:45:59.680 --> 00:46:00.320 Yeah, yeah. 00:46:00.320 --> 00:46:03.470 AUDIENCE: But each system, I think, has so many [INAUDIBLE] 00:46:03.470 --> 00:46:04.511 things. 00:46:04.511 --> 00:46:06.010 But when it comes to buses, then you 00:46:06.010 --> 00:46:09.851 do see the same types of buses like in many systems. 00:46:09.851 --> 00:46:11.600 In Europe, you only have like two or three 00:46:11.600 --> 00:46:13.460 manufacturers that make them all. 00:46:13.460 --> 00:46:14.330 In the US, as well. 00:46:14.330 --> 00:46:17.240 PROFESSOR: And big procurements, not so much for bus, 00:46:17.240 --> 00:46:19.070 but for rail, a lot of big procurements 00:46:19.070 --> 00:46:21.890 have rules requiring local manufacturing. 00:46:21.890 --> 00:46:28.420 So yeah, you get a Chinese company to do the latest-- 00:46:28.420 --> 00:46:29.490 where was that example-- 00:46:29.490 --> 00:46:32.355 CNR, right, but I'm pretty sure that a lot of the manufacture 00:46:32.355 --> 00:46:36.270 is happening in Massachusetts or close by. 00:46:36.270 --> 00:46:43.940 So OK, typical capital costs per passenger mile, 00:46:43.940 --> 00:46:46.940 so looking at a range of examples, 00:46:46.940 --> 00:46:50.810 it will cost [INAUDIBLE] going anywhere from $0.05 to $0.10. 00:46:50.810 --> 00:46:51.726 So if you have-- 00:46:51.726 --> 00:46:53.600 again, if you're doing the napkin calculation 00:46:53.600 --> 00:46:59.600 on a new system or new line, you might think how many 00:46:59.600 --> 00:47:01.980 passenger miles do I have. 00:47:01.980 --> 00:47:05.040 You could multiply by this to figure out how much you could 00:47:05.040 --> 00:47:06.900 expect to spend on vehicles. 00:47:06.900 --> 00:47:09.430 And for infrastructure, that could range anywhere from $0.01 00:47:09.430 --> 00:47:12.461 to $1 because there are so many ways of doing this. 00:47:12.461 --> 00:47:12.960 Right? 00:47:12.960 --> 00:47:14.126 It could be a subway. 00:47:14.126 --> 00:47:15.000 It could be at grade. 00:47:15.000 --> 00:47:16.980 It could be a bus. 00:47:16.980 --> 00:47:18.150 Or it could be rail. 00:47:18.150 --> 00:47:23.350 So it's very variable, and you need to get into the specifics. 00:47:23.350 --> 00:47:25.270 OK, now let's look at operating costs. 00:47:25.270 --> 00:47:27.070 We've been talking about capital costs. 00:47:27.070 --> 00:47:29.180 Let's look at operating costs. 00:47:29.180 --> 00:47:33.640 So in the US in 2013, we spent $42.2 billion 00:47:33.640 --> 00:47:35.330 across the industry. 00:47:35.330 --> 00:47:39.910 And if we divide that by type, about 44% 00:47:39.910 --> 00:47:43.600 was spent in vehicle operations, and the rest of it 00:47:43.600 --> 00:47:46.000 was more or less evenly distributed between vehicle 00:47:46.000 --> 00:47:48.250 maintenance, other kinds of maintenance 00:47:48.250 --> 00:47:51.970 like facility maintenance, administration, 00:47:51.970 --> 00:47:53.900 and purchased transportation. 00:47:53.900 --> 00:47:57.760 Purchased transportation is when a public agency outsources 00:47:57.760 --> 00:48:01.390 the operation of some mode. 00:48:01.390 --> 00:48:06.550 Most of this 14% is paratransit, so on-demand transportation 00:48:06.550 --> 00:48:10.900 for the handicapped and other groups. 00:48:10.900 --> 00:48:13.120 Some of it is commuter rail. 00:48:13.120 --> 00:48:17.740 So for example, the MBTA operates commuter rail 00:48:17.740 --> 00:48:19.520 through a third party. 00:48:19.520 --> 00:48:25.530 All right, OK, by mode, about half is spent on buses-- 00:48:25.530 --> 00:48:28.530 makes sense because there are more bus systems and, even 00:48:28.530 --> 00:48:31.140 in cities that have rail, but the bus systems 00:48:31.140 --> 00:48:34.800 are quite large, and they cover a wide area-- 00:48:34.800 --> 00:48:38.030 about 20% on heavy rail, 13% commuter rail, 00:48:38.030 --> 00:48:39.880 and much less on light rail. 00:48:39.880 --> 00:48:43.050 Paratransit is about 12%, 3% for other modes. 00:48:43.050 --> 00:48:46.302 Other modes is things like ferries and other modes not 00:48:46.302 --> 00:48:48.510 included in the traditional bus, heavy rail, commuter 00:48:48.510 --> 00:48:49.674 rail, light rail. 00:48:49.674 --> 00:48:58.050 So OK, and let's look at vehicles-- 00:48:58.050 --> 00:48:59.790 sorry, employees per running vehicle. 00:48:59.790 --> 00:49:02.550 So by mode, how many employees would you 00:49:02.550 --> 00:49:06.590 have to have to operate, to run a system? 00:49:06.590 --> 00:49:09.600 So paratransit, about 1.6 per vehicle-- 00:49:09.600 --> 00:49:12.210 obviously, you have one person driving a paratransit vehicle. 00:49:12.210 --> 00:49:13.740 That person has an eight-hour shift, 00:49:13.740 --> 00:49:15.690 and you run that vehicle for a longer time. 00:49:15.690 --> 00:49:20.350 So you need more people than vehicles. 00:49:20.350 --> 00:49:23.670 Bus tends to be higher because bus systems tend 00:49:23.670 --> 00:49:27.600 to start much earlier and end service much later. 00:49:27.600 --> 00:49:30.990 And you also have maintenance yards and refueling facilities. 00:49:30.990 --> 00:49:31.490 Right? 00:49:31.490 --> 00:49:35.250 So you have bus stops to clean. 00:49:35.250 --> 00:49:39.090 So it's a more intense operation. 00:49:39.090 --> 00:49:43.600 Commuter rail, 4.7-- you have the people driving 00:49:43.600 --> 00:49:44.410 the locomotives. 00:49:44.410 --> 00:49:48.690 You have the attendants looking at tickets. 00:49:48.690 --> 00:49:52.960 You have rail to maintain and stations to maintain. 00:49:52.960 --> 00:49:54.600 So that's commuter rail. 00:49:54.600 --> 00:49:56.490 Heavy rail is 5.5. 00:49:56.490 --> 00:49:59.470 Again, it starts early, runs late. 00:49:59.470 --> 00:50:02.580 You have a lot of stations to maintain, more so than commuter 00:50:02.580 --> 00:50:07.020 rail, so 5.5. 00:50:07.020 --> 00:50:08.370 Light rail is 6.8. 00:50:08.370 --> 00:50:14.340 Part of the recent light rail is high is because many systems 00:50:14.340 --> 00:50:16.310 have one driver per car. 00:50:16.310 --> 00:50:19.320 Or some systems, at least, have one driver per car. 00:50:19.320 --> 00:50:21.490 So here in the Green Line, we have that. 00:50:21.490 --> 00:50:21.990 Right? 00:50:21.990 --> 00:50:25.940 So if you have a two-car train, you have two drivers. 00:50:25.940 --> 00:50:29.280 And again, it starts service early, ends service late. 00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:32.340 So you [INAUDIBLE]. 00:50:32.340 --> 00:50:35.160 You need multiple shifts to run the whole day. 00:50:35.160 --> 00:50:37.380 And you have maintenance of stations. 00:50:37.380 --> 00:50:40.290 Light rail stations [INAUDIBLE] be shorter than heavy rail. 00:50:40.290 --> 00:50:42.880 So they have more stations to take care of. 00:50:42.880 --> 00:50:45.990 And then there's maintenance, vehicle maintenance 00:50:45.990 --> 00:50:48.010 and facility maintenance. 00:50:48.010 --> 00:50:52.450 [INAUDIBLE] is about three employees per vehicle. 00:50:52.450 --> 00:50:58.245 OK, so comparing, these numbers below are from a 1970 study 00:50:58.245 --> 00:50:59.670 on employees per vehicle. 00:50:59.670 --> 00:51:01.500 And it's a comparison of bus and rail. 00:51:01.500 --> 00:51:06.540 So what's neat about the comparison at the bottom 00:51:06.540 --> 00:51:12.380 is that we are distributing the costs of a vehicle 00:51:12.380 --> 00:51:15.590 not only by mode, but also by what type of expense. 00:51:15.590 --> 00:51:16.090 Right? 00:51:16.090 --> 00:51:19.430 So at the top, we're saying bus is this much. 00:51:19.430 --> 00:51:23.660 Here we divide it by vehicle operation i.e. driving, 00:51:23.660 --> 00:51:26.460 vehicle maintenance, management and control, 00:51:26.460 --> 00:51:28.400 fare collection, way maintenance, 00:51:28.400 --> 00:51:30.170 and then you have the total number. 00:51:30.170 --> 00:51:32.530 So it is from an earlier study. 00:51:32.530 --> 00:51:37.430 But for vehicle maintenance, it's more or less the same 00:51:37.430 --> 00:51:39.650 on a unit cost basis. 00:51:39.650 --> 00:51:45.020 For bus, this is per car, and that's per vehicle. 00:51:45.020 --> 00:51:51.190 So you have about 2.2 drivers per bus for bus systems, 00:51:51.190 --> 00:51:55.460 about 1 for rail systems. 00:51:55.460 --> 00:51:58.760 This is driving, but also other things. 00:51:58.760 --> 00:52:01.200 Management and control is about the same. 00:52:01.200 --> 00:52:06.180 And then the driver takes care of fare collection on bus. 00:52:06.180 --> 00:52:07.790 But in rail, you have people that 00:52:07.790 --> 00:52:11.460 have to sort of be station attendants and help people out. 00:52:11.460 --> 00:52:16.806 You might have an office where people can complain about their 00:52:16.806 --> 00:52:18.680 needing a rebate because their machine didn't 00:52:18.680 --> 00:52:19.430 work or something. 00:52:19.430 --> 00:52:22.760 They lost value on their fare card. 00:52:22.760 --> 00:52:25.220 So way maintenance is more expensive, 00:52:25.220 --> 00:52:28.070 whereas way maintenance on buses on the streets, 00:52:28.070 --> 00:52:31.280 that's not even included in the cost for running bus systems 00:52:31.280 --> 00:52:32.360 because that's-- 00:52:32.360 --> 00:52:34.380 the Public Works Department takes care of that. 00:52:34.380 --> 00:52:38.300 So overall, it's higher for rail than bus. 00:52:38.300 --> 00:52:40.380 But you have some-- 00:52:40.380 --> 00:52:45.380 yeah, so you do have a higher productivity for metro 00:52:45.380 --> 00:52:49.860 if you measure it in passenger miles per revenue vehicle hour. 00:52:49.860 --> 00:52:52.640 Yeah, so if you have any questions, 00:52:52.640 --> 00:52:55.900 I'll take them, questions on the homework or on this lecture 00:52:55.900 --> 00:52:58.360 or on the previous lectures. 00:52:58.360 --> 00:53:00.866 And if you don't have questions, you may leave. 00:53:04.770 --> 00:53:07.146 AUDIENCE: Is that [INAUDIBLE]? 00:53:07.146 --> 00:53:08.770 PROFESSOR: You were first, yeah, Scott. 00:53:08.770 --> 00:53:12.346 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] on slide 18 looking at capital cost 00:53:12.346 --> 00:53:17.004 over passenger mile, do you need to pick a time period in order 00:53:17.004 --> 00:53:18.620 to make that calculation. 00:53:18.620 --> 00:53:20.060 PROFESSOR: This is very general. 00:53:20.060 --> 00:53:24.020 So this is sort of high level, looking at the whole industry 00:53:24.020 --> 00:53:29.010 and looking at like capital projects. 00:53:29.010 --> 00:53:32.760 So you know, if you look at how much it costs 00:53:32.760 --> 00:53:38.160 to build a new line, a new light rail line in some city, 00:53:38.160 --> 00:53:40.860 and then you see how many people are taking it-- 00:53:40.860 --> 00:53:42.120 so we have passenger miles. 00:53:42.120 --> 00:53:45.550 So you divide the total cost by that, and that's what you get. 00:53:45.550 --> 00:53:47.320 You have a question. 00:53:47.320 --> 00:53:57.290 AUDIENCE: Yes, so regarding the homework assignment, we are-- 00:53:57.290 --> 00:54:00.540 basically, we should do the assignment and maybe comment 00:54:00.540 --> 00:54:03.730 on, but assume that we don't know-- 00:54:03.730 --> 00:54:06.240 we won't have like the-- 00:54:06.240 --> 00:54:07.596 what am I trying to say? 00:54:07.596 --> 00:54:09.470 It seemed like there was a lot of information 00:54:09.470 --> 00:54:11.090 that you have already asked if people 00:54:11.090 --> 00:54:13.225 who are taking the train the one stop that we are. 00:54:13.225 --> 00:54:13.850 PROFESSOR: Yes. 00:54:13.850 --> 00:54:16.010 AUDIENCE: So we just assume [INAUDIBLE] covered in the data 00:54:16.010 --> 00:54:17.740 collection and assume that that data exists, 00:54:17.740 --> 00:54:18.823 but that we don't have it. 00:54:18.823 --> 00:54:19.960 PROFESSOR: Yes, yes. 00:54:19.960 --> 00:54:22.840 So there are people who-- 00:54:22.840 --> 00:54:25.190 I think what you're referring to is 00:54:25.190 --> 00:54:29.120 there are people who are going to MIT 00:54:29.120 --> 00:54:33.550 who get off at Central Square and transfer to the Red Line, 00:54:33.550 --> 00:54:34.592 right, and go to Kendall. 00:54:34.592 --> 00:54:36.425 AUDIENCE: Yeah, especially the Kendall area. 00:54:36.425 --> 00:54:38.060 PROFESSOR: Right, now how many of those 00:54:38.060 --> 00:54:41.870 would continue on the bus rather than switch anyway? 00:54:41.870 --> 00:54:43.170 I'm not sure. 00:54:43.170 --> 00:54:46.500 So there is a judgment call there. 00:54:46.500 --> 00:54:50.735 But yeah, we're focusing on the people that 00:54:50.735 --> 00:54:52.860 for sure would stay on the bus. 00:54:52.860 --> 00:54:54.360 They're not transferring to Kendall. 00:54:54.360 --> 00:54:57.460 So they're going somewhere else in that area 00:54:57.460 --> 00:54:59.650 before reaching Kendall possibly, 00:54:59.650 --> 00:55:02.710 right, or almost surely. 00:55:02.710 --> 00:55:04.720 And those are the people that would definitely 00:55:04.720 --> 00:55:05.920 stay on the bus. 00:55:05.920 --> 00:55:07.150 AUDIENCE: That we talked to. 00:55:07.150 --> 00:55:08.691 PROFESSOR: Yeah, yeah, exactly, which 00:55:08.691 --> 00:55:10.040 is why we picked that bus stop. 00:55:10.040 --> 00:55:13.570 But I think it's very likely that, in a future assignment, 00:55:13.570 --> 00:55:16.910 I will give you data on the people who are transferring 00:55:16.910 --> 00:55:20.920 to the Central Square Red Line. 00:55:20.920 --> 00:55:23.700 And therefore, you'll have the whole picture 00:55:23.700 --> 00:55:28.900 of from your survey and from the ODX data, 00:55:28.900 --> 00:55:31.960 yeah, AFC data from Red Line. 00:55:31.960 --> 00:55:32.626 AUDIENCE: Great. 00:55:35.614 --> 00:55:38.520 PROFESSOR: Any other questions? 00:55:38.520 --> 00:55:40.670 All right, goodbye.