1 00:00:00,670 --> 00:00:03,010 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:03,010 --> 00:00:04,430 Commons license. 3 00:00:04,430 --> 00:00:06,640 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:10,730 continue to offer high-quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,730 --> 00:00:13,270 To make a donation or to view additional materials 6 00:00:13,270 --> 00:00:17,230 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:17,230 --> 00:00:18,103 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:23,456 --> 00:00:24,580 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: All right. 9 00:00:24,580 --> 00:00:26,830 So let's start with a quick introduction my name is 10 00:00:26,830 --> 00:00:29,080 Gabriel, Gabriel Sanchez. 11 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,720 I am a lecturer and research associate 12 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:33,200 in the transit lab at MIT. 13 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:34,870 We're over at Building 1. 14 00:00:34,870 --> 00:00:37,660 My office is in room 1235. 15 00:00:37,660 --> 00:00:39,490 And that's where office hours are 16 00:00:39,490 --> 00:00:43,000 going to be every Tuesday at 11:00 or by appointment. 17 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:44,140 Send me an email-- 18 00:00:44,140 --> 00:00:46,150 can you hear me at the back? 19 00:00:46,150 --> 00:00:47,000 Yeah? 20 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:48,583 If you want, you can send me an email. 21 00:00:48,583 --> 00:00:50,084 And we can arrange for office hours 22 00:00:50,084 --> 00:00:52,250 if you have any questions about homework or anything 23 00:00:52,250 --> 00:00:54,330 about lecture. 24 00:00:54,330 --> 00:00:55,920 So speaking of OpenCourseWare, you 25 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:57,910 should have all seen some notices up 26 00:00:57,910 --> 00:00:59,880 as you came into the room. 27 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,520 We're going to be recording the class this semester. 28 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,129 So that we can share it with the world. 29 00:01:05,129 --> 00:01:07,710 So I think you're all good-looking people. 30 00:01:07,710 --> 00:01:16,550 But if you are anxious or nervous about being recorded, 31 00:01:16,550 --> 00:01:19,890 there a back burner over there won't be-- 32 00:01:19,890 --> 00:01:21,690 it'll be a blind spot in the cameras. 33 00:01:21,690 --> 00:01:24,519 Any recording of your faces will be completely incidental. 34 00:01:24,519 --> 00:01:25,560 That's not our intention. 35 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:26,940 It's not to record you. 36 00:01:26,940 --> 00:01:28,470 The camera is pointing at me. 37 00:01:28,470 --> 00:01:31,580 And we're going to look at the slides. 38 00:01:31,580 --> 00:01:35,560 If I move over to the sideboard and you are a, 39 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:36,670 then you'll be recorded. 40 00:01:36,670 --> 00:01:40,742 So please don't let that intimidate you. 41 00:01:40,742 --> 00:01:42,700 Participate as much as possible and make people 42 00:01:42,700 --> 00:01:44,560 feel that they're in the classroom with you. 43 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,110 So we're welcoming people for years 44 00:01:47,110 --> 00:01:50,855 to come to this class, people in the future. 45 00:01:50,855 --> 00:01:51,980 Let's look at the syllabus. 46 00:01:56,610 --> 00:01:59,540 This class meets Tuesdays and Thursdays at 4:00. 47 00:01:59,540 --> 00:02:00,120 You're here. 48 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,550 You found the room, 2131. 49 00:02:02,550 --> 00:02:06,120 The final exam date and time will be announced. 50 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,199 I usually have the final exam in the same room 51 00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:09,990 as we have lecture. 52 00:02:09,990 --> 00:02:12,020 So if it's available, we'll have it here. 53 00:02:12,020 --> 00:02:15,330 The time and date is pending. 54 00:02:15,330 --> 00:02:17,460 Office hours, as I said earlier, are on Tuesdays 55 00:02:17,460 --> 00:02:18,679 at 11:00 or by appointment. 56 00:02:18,679 --> 00:02:19,720 You can send me an email. 57 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,562 You have my email up at the top. 58 00:02:22,562 --> 00:02:24,270 You probably read the course description. 59 00:02:24,270 --> 00:02:25,380 So I'll skip that. 60 00:02:25,380 --> 00:02:27,240 And we'll get into that when we start 61 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,150 talking about introduction for today's class. 62 00:02:31,150 --> 00:02:33,600 We'll have five problem sets. 63 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:38,700 And they will carry a weight of 65% of the grade split evenly. 64 00:02:38,700 --> 00:02:42,630 A fifth of that 65% is going to be 65 00:02:42,630 --> 00:02:44,820 for each of these assignments if that makes sense. 66 00:02:44,820 --> 00:02:48,400 And then 35% of the total cost grade will be the final exam. 67 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:49,650 There's just one final exam. 68 00:02:49,650 --> 00:02:50,691 There won't be a partial. 69 00:02:54,470 --> 00:02:57,500 And regarding attendance, I'm not grading attendance. 70 00:02:57,500 --> 00:03:00,570 But I do consider it, especially if you're 71 00:03:00,570 --> 00:03:03,350 in the fence at the end of the class. 72 00:03:03,350 --> 00:03:05,510 I'll be more generous pushing you up 73 00:03:05,510 --> 00:03:09,110 if you have participated actively. 74 00:03:09,110 --> 00:03:14,070 Now, let's look at the course schedule on the second page. 75 00:03:14,070 --> 00:03:17,380 In this class, we have 26 lectures. 76 00:03:17,380 --> 00:03:19,630 They're numbered on the left column. 77 00:03:19,630 --> 00:03:22,390 And they are divided into four themes. 78 00:03:22,390 --> 00:03:24,630 The first three lectures are introductory. 79 00:03:24,630 --> 00:03:27,780 So it's a theme of introduction to public transportation 80 00:03:27,780 --> 00:03:28,860 systems. 81 00:03:28,860 --> 00:03:33,380 Lectures 4 through 12 are on data analysis and modeling. 82 00:03:33,380 --> 00:03:36,900 So you'll see that we cover data analysis techniques 83 00:03:36,900 --> 00:03:38,880 and different models-- 84 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,640 cost modeling and ridership forecasting. 85 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:45,580 Lectures 13 through 15 are on service planning and operations 86 00:03:45,580 --> 00:03:46,080 planning. 87 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,030 That's when we get into scheduling 88 00:03:48,030 --> 00:03:49,890 and you really understand what it 89 00:03:49,890 --> 00:03:56,000 takes to plan transit service and what drives costs. 90 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,400 And then after that, all the remaining topics 91 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,330 are on the more general theme of strategy, policy, 92 00:04:02,330 --> 00:04:04,200 and other advanced topics. 93 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:09,070 So that's to round out what you know by that point. 94 00:04:09,070 --> 00:04:12,740 If we have changes to the schedule such as a snow day, 95 00:04:12,740 --> 00:04:15,530 we will publish that on Stellar. 96 00:04:15,530 --> 00:04:20,420 OK, on the back, we have a little description 97 00:04:20,420 --> 00:04:22,269 of what OpenCourseWare is. 98 00:04:22,269 --> 00:04:24,560 I think most of you should know what OpenCourseWare is. 99 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,500 It's an online system to share classes at MIT 100 00:04:27,500 --> 00:04:29,070 with the rest of the world. 101 00:04:29,070 --> 00:04:31,280 And so we're recording as I said. 102 00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:35,540 And the spot on the back is the blind spot 103 00:04:35,540 --> 00:04:38,150 if you want to avoid being recorded incidentally. 104 00:04:38,150 --> 00:04:40,619 Normally, no matter where you sit, you won't be recorded. 105 00:04:40,619 --> 00:04:42,410 Maybe you're the back of your head might be 106 00:04:42,410 --> 00:04:44,120 but not your face. 107 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,820 In terms of readings, we have a few relevant books. 108 00:04:47,820 --> 00:04:49,010 Some of them are reports. 109 00:04:49,010 --> 00:04:51,740 And they are posted on Stellar. 110 00:04:51,740 --> 00:04:55,100 Please raise your hand if you don't know about Stellar 111 00:04:55,100 --> 00:04:58,810 or not familiar with the Stellar. 112 00:04:58,810 --> 00:05:01,150 We have one, OK. 113 00:05:01,150 --> 00:05:03,520 Are you from-- you're not from MIT, right? 114 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,400 OK, so send me an email so that I can give you access 115 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:07,030 to the site. 116 00:05:07,030 --> 00:05:09,310 It's a website where we share all the materials 117 00:05:09,310 --> 00:05:12,670 and homeworks and such things. 118 00:05:12,670 --> 00:05:16,390 So some of these books such as The Transit Capacity 119 00:05:16,390 --> 00:05:18,640 and Quality of Service Manual is already posted there. 120 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,320 So it's a PDF you can download to your computer. 121 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,640 There are also three books. 122 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,880 I'm not expecting anyone to read these books or to buy them. 123 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:29,290 I brought them. 124 00:05:29,290 --> 00:05:30,490 Please pass them around. 125 00:05:30,490 --> 00:05:33,170 If you're interested because you really like this topic, 126 00:05:33,170 --> 00:05:36,190 you can go ahead and buy them or borrow them from somewhere. 127 00:05:36,190 --> 00:05:37,790 I think they're in the libraries. 128 00:05:37,790 --> 00:05:42,239 So you can also get them there. 129 00:05:42,239 --> 00:05:43,780 So just how you can flip through them 130 00:05:43,780 --> 00:05:45,670 and have a look if you want. 131 00:05:45,670 --> 00:05:47,260 But as I said, we're not expecting 132 00:05:47,260 --> 00:05:49,774 that you read them or buy them. 133 00:05:49,774 --> 00:05:51,940 They're not really necessary for any of the homework 134 00:05:51,940 --> 00:05:52,981 that we're going to have. 135 00:05:52,981 --> 00:05:54,970 So it's supplementary. 136 00:05:54,970 --> 00:05:57,490 And finally, an acknowledgment. 137 00:05:57,490 --> 00:06:02,370 This course is Professor Nigel Wilson's course. 138 00:06:02,370 --> 00:06:03,250 And I lecture it. 139 00:06:03,250 --> 00:06:07,090 But most of the material that we have in this course 140 00:06:07,090 --> 00:06:11,080 is provided by him and follows of a long history 141 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:15,960 of teaching 1258 in the way that we are teaching it here at MIT. 142 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,617 It was his creative process that led to this. 143 00:06:18,617 --> 00:06:20,450 Do you have any questions about the syllabus 144 00:06:20,450 --> 00:06:23,660 before we get started with the class? 145 00:06:27,490 --> 00:06:29,320 Any questions about what we plan to cover 146 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,140 or what the style of this course will be? 147 00:06:36,410 --> 00:06:37,420 OK. 148 00:06:37,420 --> 00:06:40,630 In terms of homework, the first one, which I passed out, 149 00:06:40,630 --> 00:06:42,940 is for you to work on individually. 150 00:06:42,940 --> 00:06:46,220 If you don't have a copy of that, please get-- 151 00:06:46,220 --> 00:06:49,270 it's one sheet in the front. 152 00:06:49,270 --> 00:06:50,990 And that's due a week from now. 153 00:06:50,990 --> 00:06:53,860 It'll be your St. Valentine's present for me. 154 00:06:53,860 --> 00:06:57,024 And please let me know if you have questions. 155 00:06:57,024 --> 00:06:58,690 It should be a straightforward homework. 156 00:06:58,690 --> 00:07:00,520 There's a reading that you do. 157 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:01,870 And it's on Stellar. 158 00:07:01,870 --> 00:07:04,270 And then without reading, you should 159 00:07:04,270 --> 00:07:08,470 be able to answer the questions on this homework. 160 00:07:08,470 --> 00:07:11,140 After this, you will have some assignments that 161 00:07:11,140 --> 00:07:14,180 are worked in pairs or in bigger teams, 162 00:07:14,180 --> 00:07:17,380 especially ones regarding data collection and service planning 163 00:07:17,380 --> 00:07:19,200 and operations planning. 164 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,480 So there's going to be a lot of teamwork. 165 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,870 And I will send the survey. 166 00:07:24,870 --> 00:07:28,380 I will post an announcement on Stellar, which should reach you 167 00:07:28,380 --> 00:07:31,800 by email, regarding a survey where I ask you 168 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:33,900 in more detail about your interests 169 00:07:33,900 --> 00:07:36,534 and your background on things like programming 170 00:07:36,534 --> 00:07:37,950 and optimization, which are things 171 00:07:37,950 --> 00:07:40,650 that are not necessary for taking this course. 172 00:07:40,650 --> 00:07:43,260 But at some point, they might bring 173 00:07:43,260 --> 00:07:46,380 in interesting perspective in the homeworks. 174 00:07:46,380 --> 00:07:50,010 So I try to distribute that talent 175 00:07:50,010 --> 00:07:53,730 evenly across the groups doing homeworks 176 00:07:53,730 --> 00:07:58,390 so that everybody has a chance of getting that perspective. 177 00:07:58,390 --> 00:08:00,647 But don't worry if you don't have that experience, 178 00:08:00,647 --> 00:08:01,480 it won't affect you. 179 00:08:06,060 --> 00:08:07,070 All right. 180 00:08:07,070 --> 00:08:08,580 We're ready to start. 181 00:08:08,580 --> 00:08:12,630 Do you have any questions before we start today's lecture? 182 00:08:12,630 --> 00:08:14,910 OK, so today's lecture is the sort 183 00:08:14,910 --> 00:08:17,020 of introduction to the course. 184 00:08:17,020 --> 00:08:20,440 And we'll talk about the current status and recent trends 185 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,030 of the public transportation industry 186 00:08:22,030 --> 00:08:27,160 here in the US, what influences those trends and that status. 187 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,340 We'll have a critical assessment of where we are 188 00:08:30,340 --> 00:08:32,440 and the things that we'd have to do 189 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,080 to increase the role of public transportation 190 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:36,460 if that's what we want. 191 00:08:36,460 --> 00:08:38,650 We'll talk about arguments put forth 192 00:08:38,650 --> 00:08:42,970 in support of public transport and, in some cases, 193 00:08:42,970 --> 00:08:44,830 rebuttals for them. 194 00:08:44,830 --> 00:08:47,050 We'll talk what future influences and ingredients 195 00:08:47,050 --> 00:08:48,470 for future success. 196 00:08:48,470 --> 00:08:49,710 Let's get right into it. 197 00:08:49,710 --> 00:08:53,440 If we look at the transit industry right now. 198 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:59,230 We have ridership patterns that are increasing but moderately. 199 00:08:59,230 --> 00:09:00,580 And they remain small. 200 00:09:00,580 --> 00:09:03,490 Public transportation in the US and North America 201 00:09:03,490 --> 00:09:05,800 remains a small percent of the total mode share. 202 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:11,470 Because most people travel through using private autos 203 00:09:11,470 --> 00:09:13,600 or modes like that. 204 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,250 Now, there's a strong financial support 205 00:09:15,250 --> 00:09:17,200 from our local government, local state, 206 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:21,220 and federal in terms of funding and providing funding 207 00:09:21,220 --> 00:09:23,710 from tax revenue. 208 00:09:23,710 --> 00:09:25,270 There has been significant growth 209 00:09:25,270 --> 00:09:28,190 in the number of new rail starts in the past 25 years-- 210 00:09:28,190 --> 00:09:30,880 so new systems, new metro systems, new light rail 211 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:32,260 systems. 212 00:09:32,260 --> 00:09:33,650 And we'll talk about why that is, 213 00:09:33,650 --> 00:09:35,691 that it has to do with the funding structure here 214 00:09:35,691 --> 00:09:37,000 in the US. 215 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,820 There's been also major rebuilding 216 00:09:39,820 --> 00:09:40,960 of many older systems. 217 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,890 And that has to do with the same funding incentives, which 218 00:09:44,890 --> 00:09:46,570 is not necessarily true in Europe 219 00:09:46,570 --> 00:09:48,190 and other parts of the world. 220 00:09:48,190 --> 00:09:50,260 Institutional innovation has been quite slow. 221 00:09:50,260 --> 00:09:51,670 But there's a growing recognition 222 00:09:51,670 --> 00:09:57,970 that, with the new modes of transportation and where we are 223 00:09:57,970 --> 00:09:59,740 and where we're going in terms of trends, 224 00:09:59,740 --> 00:10:03,160 we might need to rethink some of that institutional structure. 225 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,620 And we'll get into that later in the course. 226 00:10:06,620 --> 00:10:11,410 So if we look at the trends in modal split-- 227 00:10:11,410 --> 00:10:16,210 that's one of the first things that I mentioned-- 228 00:10:16,210 --> 00:10:19,300 over the last, say, four decades, 229 00:10:19,300 --> 00:10:25,450 we see that auto is steadily above 80% in the whole US. 230 00:10:25,450 --> 00:10:29,140 So it is the dominant mode for transportation. 231 00:10:29,140 --> 00:10:30,940 And these are journey to work. 232 00:10:30,940 --> 00:10:35,440 So this is the morning commute to work from home. 233 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:39,478 Transit, on the other hand, floats 234 00:10:39,478 --> 00:10:43,640 right around between 2% and 3%, sometimes a bit lower. 235 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,090 And what we can see is that in the 1990s-- 236 00:10:46,090 --> 00:10:48,520 in 1990 and 1995-- 237 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,860 you see a slight dip in public transportation use 238 00:10:51,860 --> 00:10:55,060 and some increase in private auto use. 239 00:10:55,060 --> 00:10:56,800 And since then, we started a recovery 240 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:02,050 towards lower auto use and slightly higher 241 00:11:02,050 --> 00:11:04,120 public transportation use. 242 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:08,350 Walking is the same pattern as transit and bicycling 243 00:11:08,350 --> 00:11:08,920 also similar. 244 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:10,750 But these are very small components-- 245 00:11:10,750 --> 00:11:13,240 very, very small modes. 246 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:17,330 References for this, if you want more details, are listed below. 247 00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:21,050 In terms of ridership in absolute terms, 248 00:11:21,050 --> 00:11:23,140 you see that, in the last four decades, 249 00:11:23,140 --> 00:11:26,500 we've had an increase, so especially in rail. 250 00:11:26,500 --> 00:11:30,500 So if you look at the dark teal right here, 251 00:11:30,500 --> 00:11:34,390 most of this increase that we see in the last 10 years 252 00:11:34,390 --> 00:11:36,400 is from rail. 253 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,590 These are only public transportation trips. 254 00:11:38,590 --> 00:11:40,930 So having rail here in that we're 255 00:11:40,930 --> 00:11:44,510 talking about metro and subway, we have bus here 256 00:11:44,510 --> 00:11:46,600 and then [AUDIO OUT] all other modes. 257 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,340 But it's all other transit modes. 258 00:11:48,340 --> 00:11:49,990 So make sure that you understand that. 259 00:11:49,990 --> 00:11:51,700 We're talking about light rail. 260 00:11:51,700 --> 00:11:55,060 We're talking about ferries, other forms 261 00:11:55,060 --> 00:11:59,290 of public transportation, not private auto. 262 00:11:59,290 --> 00:12:00,820 But this is in absolute terms, not 263 00:12:00,820 --> 00:12:03,370 in relative terms in terms of mode share. 264 00:12:03,370 --> 00:12:10,500 If we look at recent trends from 2004 to 2014, 265 00:12:10,500 --> 00:12:13,350 we see an increase in public transportation 266 00:12:13,350 --> 00:12:15,900 that is quite high, especially when you compare it 267 00:12:15,900 --> 00:12:18,160 to the population increase. 268 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,810 And when you compare it to the change in highway vehicle 269 00:12:21,810 --> 00:12:24,300 miles of travel in the US at national level. 270 00:12:24,300 --> 00:12:27,600 So we see a 2% increase in highway vehicle miles 271 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:32,790 traveled and about 9% increase in population 272 00:12:32,790 --> 00:12:36,810 and about 21% increase in public transportation use. 273 00:12:36,810 --> 00:12:38,730 So it's been especially recently. 274 00:12:38,730 --> 00:12:44,580 And you can see a dip due to the most recent economic recession, 275 00:12:44,580 --> 00:12:47,280 but a pretty healthy recovery after that. 276 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,000 And part of what's driving this is 277 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,120 that the population is increasing, of course, 278 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:52,200 as it always has. 279 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,607 But especially the urban population is increasing. 280 00:12:54,607 --> 00:12:56,940 This happening all around the world, not just in the US. 281 00:12:56,940 --> 00:12:59,520 In fact, it's happening more outside of the US 282 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,040 than it is here in the US. 283 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:03,750 If you look at the UN projections 284 00:13:03,750 --> 00:13:07,740 for population increase, most of the population increase 285 00:13:07,740 --> 00:13:10,860 in the world for the next decades 286 00:13:10,860 --> 00:13:14,280 is projected to occur in urban centers and in Metropolis. 287 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:19,930 So in fact, the population change estimates 288 00:13:19,930 --> 00:13:22,210 say that rural population is actually 289 00:13:22,210 --> 00:13:24,076 going to decrease by 2050. 290 00:13:24,076 --> 00:13:25,450 So not only are you going to have 291 00:13:25,450 --> 00:13:27,460 the natural rate of population increase 292 00:13:27,460 --> 00:13:30,709 that mostly will happen in cities, 293 00:13:30,709 --> 00:13:33,250 you're also going to have people moving away from rural areas 294 00:13:33,250 --> 00:13:34,360 into cities. 295 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:35,880 And why is that? 296 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:37,750 Well, why are people moving into cities? 297 00:13:37,750 --> 00:13:40,570 And why is this happening more and more? 298 00:13:40,570 --> 00:13:42,057 We have some volunteers? 299 00:13:42,057 --> 00:13:42,557 Yeah. 300 00:13:42,557 --> 00:13:45,004 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 301 00:13:45,004 --> 00:13:45,920 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Sure. 302 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:50,440 So access to jobs is a big one. 303 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:51,508 Yeah. 304 00:13:51,508 --> 00:13:53,778 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 305 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,010 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: OK, so it's more than that. 306 00:13:58,010 --> 00:13:58,510 But yeah. 307 00:13:58,510 --> 00:14:01,840 So there are more cultural activities and sports 308 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,970 and museums and all sorts of-- 309 00:14:03,970 --> 00:14:04,970 MIT. 310 00:14:04,970 --> 00:14:07,560 So cities-- when we talk about agglomeration benefits-- 311 00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:08,560 I know we've heard that. 312 00:14:08,560 --> 00:14:14,180 But cities bring together health care, education, jobs, 313 00:14:14,180 --> 00:14:15,830 and people. 314 00:14:15,830 --> 00:14:18,670 And so when you live in a place that 315 00:14:18,670 --> 00:14:20,620 has a high concentration of these things, 316 00:14:20,620 --> 00:14:22,420 you have more access to those things 317 00:14:22,420 --> 00:14:24,375 than if you were to live outside. 318 00:14:24,375 --> 00:14:25,500 And that's true for people. 319 00:14:25,500 --> 00:14:27,130 It's also true for businesses. 320 00:14:27,130 --> 00:14:30,610 A business that is looking to hire talented people 321 00:14:30,610 --> 00:14:34,930 from universities and have access to, say, airports 322 00:14:34,930 --> 00:14:37,540 and other businesses that provide services to them 323 00:14:37,540 --> 00:14:42,290 are more likely to find that in a big city. 324 00:14:42,290 --> 00:14:45,910 So this is part of what's fueling these trends. 325 00:14:45,910 --> 00:14:48,610 And in big cities, we also have a problem 326 00:14:48,610 --> 00:14:51,170 because of the high densities of high traffic. 327 00:14:51,170 --> 00:14:54,850 So if you're looking at traveling by private auto, 328 00:14:54,850 --> 00:14:56,200 you're going to have congestion. 329 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:00,700 And in that setting with high densities and high traffic, 330 00:15:00,700 --> 00:15:04,870 public transportation becomes more competitive of a mode. 331 00:15:04,870 --> 00:15:08,200 But we also have to consider the negative aspects 332 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,900 of public transportation from the passenger's perspective. 333 00:15:10,900 --> 00:15:12,010 You have to wait. 334 00:15:12,010 --> 00:15:14,010 It doesn't pick you up at your door. 335 00:15:14,010 --> 00:15:16,450 And it doesn't take you right to the doorstep of where 336 00:15:16,450 --> 00:15:17,410 you're going to. 337 00:15:17,410 --> 00:15:18,910 So it's these tradeoffs. 338 00:15:18,910 --> 00:15:23,260 And when there is enough traffic and the densities 339 00:15:23,260 --> 00:15:25,570 are sufficiently high, then public transportation 340 00:15:25,570 --> 00:15:28,630 can become very competitive from a personal decision-making 341 00:15:28,630 --> 00:15:29,568 standpoint. 342 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,950 In the US, going back to the US context-- 343 00:15:34,950 --> 00:15:38,350 and this comes from the APTA Fact Book. 344 00:15:38,350 --> 00:15:40,240 They publish this every few years. 345 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,930 And they always-- so this is the 2015 publication 346 00:15:43,930 --> 00:15:45,530 for two years before that. 347 00:15:45,530 --> 00:15:50,200 So with data from the American Community Survey from 2013. 348 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:55,240 And if we rank the sort of largest US 349 00:15:55,240 --> 00:16:00,070 cities and metropolitan areas really by size 350 00:16:00,070 --> 00:16:05,350 and then we look at their transit mode share, 351 00:16:05,350 --> 00:16:06,290 this is what we get. 352 00:16:06,290 --> 00:16:09,220 So the biggest one, by far, in the US 353 00:16:09,220 --> 00:16:12,087 is the New York metropolitan area. 354 00:16:12,087 --> 00:16:14,420 And right below that, we have San Francisco, Washington, 355 00:16:14,420 --> 00:16:16,820 Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia. 356 00:16:16,820 --> 00:16:20,860 And then you start seeing a decrease and a pretty rapid 357 00:16:20,860 --> 00:16:23,620 decrease in the percent of workers 358 00:16:23,620 --> 00:16:27,820 in those metropolises that use transit to commute to work. 359 00:16:27,820 --> 00:16:35,590 So the question is, why is the mode share so much higher 360 00:16:35,590 --> 00:16:38,230 for these first few cities? 361 00:16:38,230 --> 00:16:40,790 What do those cities have in common 362 00:16:40,790 --> 00:16:43,744 that the cities below them don't have? 363 00:16:43,744 --> 00:16:46,410 AUDIENCE: They have an old rail structure. 364 00:16:46,410 --> 00:16:49,530 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: OK, so that's a good idea. 365 00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:50,920 Yeah. 366 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:51,450 Over here. 367 00:16:51,450 --> 00:16:52,840 AUDIENCE: I mean, they have very, very high population 368 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:53,680 densities. 369 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,077 New York is like 70,000 people per square mile 370 00:16:56,077 --> 00:16:58,250 and Dallas is probably like three. 371 00:16:58,250 --> 00:16:59,330 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: OK. 372 00:16:59,330 --> 00:17:01,490 AUDIENCE: They have expensive downtown parking. 373 00:17:01,490 --> 00:17:03,400 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Yes. 374 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:04,930 Other ideas? 375 00:17:04,930 --> 00:17:07,746 AUDIENCE: They're all older cities. 376 00:17:07,746 --> 00:17:09,829 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: And it's also related to the fact 377 00:17:09,829 --> 00:17:11,250 that you have older systems. 378 00:17:11,250 --> 00:17:13,970 So in fact, those first few-- those first six that I've 379 00:17:13,970 --> 00:17:17,329 mentioned, say New York through Philadelphia-- 380 00:17:17,329 --> 00:17:22,650 are the oldest systems in the US. 381 00:17:22,650 --> 00:17:23,420 DC is newer. 382 00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:24,319 That's right. 383 00:17:24,319 --> 00:17:32,970 But most of the ones below them are newer, even newer than DC. 384 00:17:32,970 --> 00:17:38,310 So these are cities that had an urban fabric that 385 00:17:38,310 --> 00:17:41,490 was created and developed and densified 386 00:17:41,490 --> 00:17:44,820 before the US road infrastructure was developed 387 00:17:44,820 --> 00:17:45,990 as it is today. 388 00:17:45,990 --> 00:17:50,610 And therefore, the densities developed at a higher level. 389 00:17:50,610 --> 00:17:53,520 And they already had public transportation 390 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,540 serving those sort of OD pairs in those cities. 391 00:17:57,540 --> 00:18:00,810 So it's sort of a cyclical virtuous 392 00:18:00,810 --> 00:18:03,630 cycle that sort of makes public transportation 393 00:18:03,630 --> 00:18:06,300 at those places more efficient and more 394 00:18:06,300 --> 00:18:10,039 competitive than the private auto. 395 00:18:10,039 --> 00:18:11,080 Any questions about that? 396 00:18:16,810 --> 00:18:21,700 If we look at so the transit share modal split 397 00:18:21,700 --> 00:18:24,280 for home-to-work journeys, this is a little older. 398 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:25,960 This is a study that was completed 399 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,320 with data from the year 2000. 400 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,070 And we have different numbers here. 401 00:18:31,070 --> 00:18:35,950 But I just want to focus on these five biggest public 402 00:18:35,950 --> 00:18:39,100 transportation systems or big cities. 403 00:18:39,100 --> 00:18:45,100 And we see the mode share in each of them for a car 404 00:18:45,100 --> 00:18:49,660 and for transit in 2000 and transit in 2013. 405 00:18:49,660 --> 00:18:54,390 So we can see that, although in Chicago it mostly 406 00:18:54,390 --> 00:18:57,910 has stayed around the same, in New York and San 407 00:18:57,910 --> 00:19:00,790 Francisco and Washington and Boston, it has increased. 408 00:19:00,790 --> 00:19:03,940 So there's been an increase in the transit mode share. 409 00:19:03,940 --> 00:19:06,520 Population has increased in these cities 410 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,690 and so has the public transportation mode share. 411 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,580 In terms of public transportation funding. 412 00:19:14,580 --> 00:19:17,670 So how will these systems that are expensive to run 413 00:19:17,670 --> 00:19:18,420 get funded-- 414 00:19:18,420 --> 00:19:20,230 and expensive to build get funded? 415 00:19:20,230 --> 00:19:23,340 So the first thing to note is that, in North America, 416 00:19:23,340 --> 00:19:26,520 there's a tradition of dividing the expenses 417 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,600 and the expenditures of public transportation 418 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,770 into capital expenditures and operational expenditures. 419 00:19:31,770 --> 00:19:34,650 That's not true elsewhere in the world. 420 00:19:34,650 --> 00:19:36,160 But it is in North America. 421 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:37,980 So when we talk about capital expenditures, 422 00:19:37,980 --> 00:19:39,810 we're talking about building new systems, 423 00:19:39,810 --> 00:19:42,930 extending systems, procuring new vehicles, 424 00:19:42,930 --> 00:19:47,400 rolling stock, repairs, and things like that. 425 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,260 Operating expenses are what you used 426 00:19:51,260 --> 00:19:55,560 to pay salaries of drivers, pay for energy 427 00:19:55,560 --> 00:20:00,480 or fuel to propel the vehicles forward, et cetera. 428 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,900 So another thing to note is that, if we 429 00:20:03,900 --> 00:20:07,590 look at operating expenses for example, about a third 430 00:20:07,590 --> 00:20:10,590 of the operating expenses are covered by fares. 431 00:20:10,590 --> 00:20:12,360 So when you use the system and you 432 00:20:12,360 --> 00:20:15,630 pay for it and you pay your $2 or whatever it costs, 433 00:20:15,630 --> 00:20:17,310 you're only paying for about a third 434 00:20:17,310 --> 00:20:20,250 of what it costs the system to provide that journey for you 435 00:20:20,250 --> 00:20:21,710 on average. 436 00:20:21,710 --> 00:20:24,000 It does vary from system to system. 437 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:29,170 And in some parts of the world, these numbers are different. 438 00:20:29,170 --> 00:20:33,250 When we talk about local, state, and federal support or funding, 439 00:20:33,250 --> 00:20:35,630 this all comes from tax revenues. 440 00:20:35,630 --> 00:20:37,870 So this could be sales tax, especially when we're 441 00:20:37,870 --> 00:20:41,290 talking about local and state, and federal taxes, mostly 442 00:20:41,290 --> 00:20:42,070 income taxes. 443 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,120 In terms of capital expenditures, 444 00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:50,670 what I want to highlight is that the federal support 445 00:20:50,670 --> 00:20:53,000 is quite high, more than 40%. 446 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,020 And that's much higher for capital expenditures 447 00:20:55,020 --> 00:20:57,240 than it is for operating expenditures. 448 00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,850 What would that encourage if you're a state 449 00:20:59,850 --> 00:21:02,505 or you're an agency and you're operating 450 00:21:02,505 --> 00:21:05,700 a public transportation agency and you get a lot of subsidy 451 00:21:05,700 --> 00:21:07,330 from the federal level-- 452 00:21:07,330 --> 00:21:11,460 so not necessarily your constituents 453 00:21:11,460 --> 00:21:14,820 for capital expenditures, but not operating expenditures. 454 00:21:14,820 --> 00:21:18,275 What would that encourage you to do? 455 00:21:18,275 --> 00:21:20,175 AUDIENCE: Build more and maintain less? 456 00:21:20,175 --> 00:21:22,360 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Build more and maintain less. 457 00:21:22,360 --> 00:21:24,460 That's exactly right. 458 00:21:24,460 --> 00:21:27,820 So remember I said earlier there's 459 00:21:27,820 --> 00:21:31,550 been a lot of new builds in the last 25 years 460 00:21:31,550 --> 00:21:34,550 and a of major repairs in the last 20 years? 461 00:21:34,550 --> 00:21:37,750 This is why, because there's a lot of federal support 462 00:21:37,750 --> 00:21:39,850 for doing those projects. 463 00:21:39,850 --> 00:21:42,940 And unfortunately, you build a bigger system 464 00:21:42,940 --> 00:21:44,530 and you have to now run it. 465 00:21:44,530 --> 00:21:46,610 And that comes from operating expenses, 466 00:21:46,610 --> 00:21:48,190 which are not as strongly supported 467 00:21:48,190 --> 00:21:49,790 by the federal government. 468 00:21:49,790 --> 00:21:53,991 So that also hints at maybe why the industry 469 00:21:53,991 --> 00:21:55,990 is where it is in terms of state of grid repair. 470 00:21:58,890 --> 00:22:01,380 What influences these trends? 471 00:22:01,380 --> 00:22:04,620 First one, and the very obvious, is the suburbanization 472 00:22:04,620 --> 00:22:06,390 of homes, employment, and attractors. 473 00:22:06,390 --> 00:22:11,310 People moving away from cities to lower dense areas. 474 00:22:11,310 --> 00:22:14,070 Because property is cheaper and parking might be free. 475 00:22:16,890 --> 00:22:20,730 In America, low costs for car ownership and operation. 476 00:22:20,730 --> 00:22:24,450 So we have low fuel taxes in comparison 477 00:22:24,450 --> 00:22:28,830 to other parts of the world and low taxes when you buy cars. 478 00:22:28,830 --> 00:22:31,260 There is an extensive urban road infrastructure 479 00:22:31,260 --> 00:22:35,677 that is much higher than it is in other parts of the world. 480 00:22:35,677 --> 00:22:37,260 And there are many government policies 481 00:22:37,260 --> 00:22:45,130 that sort of support the road construction and maintenance 482 00:22:45,130 --> 00:22:47,190 and the use of roads and the private automobile 483 00:22:47,190 --> 00:22:49,320 and not necessarily to the same extent 484 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,090 support public transportation. 485 00:22:51,090 --> 00:22:54,210 These include things like tax benefits 486 00:22:54,210 --> 00:22:56,730 that you can take on your return, parking requirements 487 00:22:56,730 --> 00:23:00,810 when there is new construction that, again, 488 00:23:00,810 --> 00:23:03,210 support the private auto. 489 00:23:03,210 --> 00:23:04,680 If we look at suburbanization just 490 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,680 focusing on the first point and looking at the same data set 491 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,929 I talked about earlier, the 2000 journey to work, 492 00:23:09,929 --> 00:23:11,220 we have different numbers here. 493 00:23:11,220 --> 00:23:14,800 But what I really want to focus on is we have here-- 494 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,190 this is like an OD matrix but by part of the city. 495 00:23:17,190 --> 00:23:22,050 So if you live in the central city or a suburb 496 00:23:22,050 --> 00:23:26,040 and you work in the central city or suburb, 497 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,130 what percent of total trips are covered by each mode? 498 00:23:29,130 --> 00:23:36,750 So we see that we have about 27% of trips are from central city 499 00:23:36,750 --> 00:23:38,250 to central city. 500 00:23:38,250 --> 00:23:43,170 And about 20% are from the suburbs to the central city, 501 00:23:43,170 --> 00:23:45,930 so people commuting inbound to the central business district 502 00:23:45,930 --> 00:23:47,430 in the traditional sense. 503 00:23:47,430 --> 00:23:51,030 Then there's the reverse commuters, about 9%, 504 00:23:51,030 --> 00:23:54,990 who are living in the central city 505 00:23:54,990 --> 00:23:57,220 and commuting outbound into the suburbs. 506 00:23:57,220 --> 00:23:59,422 And then there is the suburb to suburb, 507 00:23:59,422 --> 00:24:01,630 people who live in the suburb and work in the suburb, 508 00:24:01,630 --> 00:24:04,450 not necessarily in the same suburb. 509 00:24:04,450 --> 00:24:07,230 OK, so that's interesting. 510 00:24:07,230 --> 00:24:10,140 That's how the trips are made. 511 00:24:10,140 --> 00:24:12,300 What happens if we look at the increase? 512 00:24:12,300 --> 00:24:16,780 What are the trends from 1990 to 2000 leading to these numbers? 513 00:24:16,780 --> 00:24:19,500 Well, by far, the biggest increase 514 00:24:19,500 --> 00:24:23,320 was in suburb-to-suburb commutes. 515 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:28,380 And if we look at the public transportation mode share, 516 00:24:28,380 --> 00:24:31,620 if you live in the city and work in the city, about 14% of trips 517 00:24:31,620 --> 00:24:36,330 are covered, are made by public transportation. 518 00:24:36,330 --> 00:24:36,900 It's lower. 519 00:24:36,900 --> 00:24:39,750 It's about 6% if you're going to or from the suburb. 520 00:24:39,750 --> 00:24:42,480 And it's much lower, 2%, if you live in the suburbs 521 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:43,680 and work in the suburbs. 522 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,280 So if you just focus on three numbers here. 523 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:53,340 43% of trips are from a suburb to a suburb. 524 00:24:53,340 --> 00:24:55,500 The trend is that suburb-to-suburb trips 525 00:24:55,500 --> 00:24:56,700 are increasing. 526 00:24:56,700 --> 00:25:00,210 And that is the hardest thing to serve 527 00:25:00,210 --> 00:25:01,730 with public transportation. 528 00:25:04,260 --> 00:25:04,940 Why is that? 529 00:25:04,940 --> 00:25:07,250 Why is it difficult to serve those trips 530 00:25:07,250 --> 00:25:09,166 with public transportation? 531 00:25:09,166 --> 00:25:11,080 AUDIENCE: Low density? 532 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,870 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Why is low density-- 533 00:25:12,870 --> 00:25:16,500 why does that make it difficult to serve-- 534 00:25:16,500 --> 00:25:18,900 AUDIENCE: Because then it's-- 535 00:25:18,900 --> 00:25:20,820 people that need access to stations, 536 00:25:20,820 --> 00:25:22,740 they're not [INAUDIBLE]. 537 00:25:26,110 --> 00:25:28,750 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Well, you could put more service. 538 00:25:28,750 --> 00:25:30,530 You could put more bus stops and stations. 539 00:25:30,530 --> 00:25:31,365 So-- 540 00:25:31,365 --> 00:25:33,198 AUDIENCE: But then there's not enough people 541 00:25:33,198 --> 00:25:35,010 to take it to make it financially viable. 542 00:25:35,010 --> 00:25:36,051 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Exactly. 543 00:25:36,051 --> 00:25:38,660 So did you hear that? 544 00:25:38,660 --> 00:25:40,190 So because you have low densities-- 545 00:25:40,190 --> 00:25:44,271 you have a sparse OD matrix, as we say in transportation. 546 00:25:44,271 --> 00:25:45,770 You have fewer people that are going 547 00:25:45,770 --> 00:25:49,180 from any particular origin to any particular destination. 548 00:25:49,180 --> 00:25:51,260 When you don't have those critical densities, 549 00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:54,170 it becomes very expensive and very inefficient 550 00:25:54,170 --> 00:25:56,930 to deploy resources to move a lot of people 551 00:25:56,930 --> 00:26:01,200 when the demand for moving a lot of people is not there. 552 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,610 On the other hand, when you have dense corridors along which 553 00:26:04,610 --> 00:26:09,080 many people want to move, you do develop this competitive demand 554 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,110 pattern that is very well served by public transportation. 555 00:26:12,110 --> 00:26:15,410 And it's very correlated with whether you are in the suburbs 556 00:26:15,410 --> 00:26:17,960 or in the central city because central cities are denser. 557 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:22,010 And there are dense [INAUDIBLE] corridors in the city, 558 00:26:22,010 --> 00:26:25,069 and also from suburbs to the center. 559 00:26:25,069 --> 00:26:26,110 Any questions about this? 560 00:26:26,110 --> 00:26:26,607 AUDIENCE: How would you-- 561 00:26:26,607 --> 00:26:28,857 I guess you wouldn't consider something like Uber pool 562 00:26:28,857 --> 00:26:30,407 to be covered by this. 563 00:26:30,407 --> 00:26:31,240 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: No. 564 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:35,200 This excludes things like the transportation network 565 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:36,550 companies. 566 00:26:36,550 --> 00:26:39,660 This is traditional public transportation. 567 00:26:39,660 --> 00:26:40,890 Yeah. 568 00:26:40,890 --> 00:26:44,560 OK, let's look at a few images, some GIS charts that 569 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,780 were prepared by Mikel Murga who used 570 00:26:46,780 --> 00:26:48,936 to work in the transit lab. 571 00:26:48,936 --> 00:26:51,220 And he's an expert in modeling. 572 00:26:51,220 --> 00:26:52,270 Here's Boston. 573 00:26:52,270 --> 00:26:55,690 And what we have, let's go back to the key here. 574 00:26:55,690 --> 00:26:59,200 It's based on the census data from 2010. 575 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,900 And red means car. 576 00:27:02,900 --> 00:27:04,496 Orange is carpooling. 577 00:27:04,496 --> 00:27:05,620 So that might include this. 578 00:27:05,620 --> 00:27:08,530 Or it might include you dropping someone off. 579 00:27:08,530 --> 00:27:10,120 Blue will be public transportation. 580 00:27:10,120 --> 00:27:13,210 And walking will be green. 581 00:27:13,210 --> 00:27:16,600 So this is the center of Boston right here. 582 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,050 MIT is right here. 583 00:27:18,050 --> 00:27:21,580 This big green area where a lot of people walk, that's us. 584 00:27:21,580 --> 00:27:23,250 That's MIT. 585 00:27:23,250 --> 00:27:24,950 The center of Boston right here. 586 00:27:24,950 --> 00:27:26,980 So lots of green, lots of people walking. 587 00:27:26,980 --> 00:27:30,070 Lots of people who start their trips there and are 588 00:27:30,070 --> 00:27:33,250 going into Boston are also taking public transportation. 589 00:27:33,250 --> 00:27:34,930 You see a lot of blue. 590 00:27:34,930 --> 00:27:39,100 But as you start moving out of that center, you get more red. 591 00:27:39,100 --> 00:27:41,530 So this is supports what we just talked about. 592 00:27:41,530 --> 00:27:44,290 There are lower densities outside of the central business 593 00:27:44,290 --> 00:27:47,560 district and this denser Cambridge area 594 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,170 right here, big university centers, hospitals, 595 00:27:50,170 --> 00:27:52,120 and financial district. 596 00:27:52,120 --> 00:27:55,070 So outside, there are lower densities. 597 00:27:55,070 --> 00:27:57,820 And there's also a lower supply of public transportation. 598 00:27:57,820 --> 00:28:00,340 So therefore, most of the commutes are made by car. 599 00:28:00,340 --> 00:28:01,870 And therefore, you see more red. 600 00:28:01,870 --> 00:28:05,890 You do see some places though where there's a lot of green 601 00:28:05,890 --> 00:28:07,900 or a lot of blue. 602 00:28:07,900 --> 00:28:11,690 And usually, the they are close to a commuter rail line. 603 00:28:11,690 --> 00:28:13,850 So if you follow, the rail lines, 604 00:28:13,850 --> 00:28:15,890 you'll see that, along those corridors, 605 00:28:15,890 --> 00:28:17,990 there is a bigger share of blue. 606 00:28:17,990 --> 00:28:20,750 The same story in other cities-- 607 00:28:20,750 --> 00:28:23,300 Manhattan, of course, being the biggest provider 608 00:28:23,300 --> 00:28:27,050 of public transportation and the city 609 00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:29,740 with the most split for public transportation. 610 00:28:29,740 --> 00:28:32,480 A lot of green in South Manhattan. 611 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,410 A lot of blue right around Manhattan. 612 00:28:36,410 --> 00:28:38,480 But as you start moving out, then you 613 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,790 start getting a lot more red. 614 00:28:40,790 --> 00:28:44,190 Same thing, just more intense. 615 00:28:44,190 --> 00:28:45,190 And then here's Chicago. 616 00:28:47,835 --> 00:28:48,770 Here's Chicago. 617 00:28:48,770 --> 00:28:49,550 Same thing. 618 00:28:49,550 --> 00:28:51,700 City center is right here. 619 00:28:51,700 --> 00:28:53,950 So you can sort of spot the city center of the city 620 00:28:53,950 --> 00:28:57,190 by how people do their journeys. 621 00:28:57,190 --> 00:29:00,160 Along the lake coast, you see a lot 622 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,400 of trips made with public transportation. 623 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,830 But as you start moving out, especially away 624 00:29:05,830 --> 00:29:08,570 from any rail lines because, along rail lines, 625 00:29:08,570 --> 00:29:13,370 you'll see some percent of people taking commuter rail 626 00:29:13,370 --> 00:29:15,450 into Chicago. 627 00:29:15,450 --> 00:29:21,470 OK, so any questions about this, this picture of mode split 628 00:29:21,470 --> 00:29:23,630 and how it changes depending on where you are 629 00:29:23,630 --> 00:29:24,800 and where you're starting your trip 630 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,174 and when you're ending your trip? 631 00:29:30,260 --> 00:29:30,760 No? 632 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:31,580 OK. 633 00:29:31,580 --> 00:29:35,360 So here in the US, coming back, especially to the North 634 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,260 American context, we have our car road system. 635 00:29:39,260 --> 00:29:42,470 So very highly developed, more than in other parts 636 00:29:42,470 --> 00:29:45,470 of the world. 637 00:29:45,470 --> 00:29:46,550 Many people own cars. 638 00:29:46,550 --> 00:29:49,650 There are 600 cars for every 1,000 people. 639 00:29:49,650 --> 00:29:51,510 The car usage is high. 640 00:29:51,510 --> 00:29:52,800 If you look at the-- 641 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:57,110 it's 10,000 vehicle kilometers per person per year. 642 00:29:57,110 --> 00:29:59,310 Compared to other countries, we have lower taxes, 643 00:29:59,310 --> 00:30:01,610 lower fees, lower user charges. 644 00:30:01,610 --> 00:30:05,870 So sales taxes are 5% to 8%. 645 00:30:05,870 --> 00:30:09,410 Users pay for only about 60% of the road infrastructure. 646 00:30:09,410 --> 00:30:11,390 That comes from tolls and from gas taxes. 647 00:30:14,190 --> 00:30:17,310 The fuel taxes here in the US are 10% to 20% 648 00:30:17,310 --> 00:30:18,520 of what they are in Europe. 649 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,730 So it gives you an idea of where we are 650 00:30:20,730 --> 00:30:23,880 and why our policies encourage owning a car 651 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,790 and operating a car. 652 00:30:26,790 --> 00:30:28,129 Parking is another big one. 653 00:30:28,129 --> 00:30:29,170 I already mentioned this. 654 00:30:29,170 --> 00:30:32,790 So the parking supply in most of the US 655 00:30:32,790 --> 00:30:35,250 is free and widely available. 656 00:30:35,250 --> 00:30:39,850 So there are 380 parking spaces per 1,000 central city workers 657 00:30:39,850 --> 00:30:41,250 in the 10 largest cities. 658 00:30:41,250 --> 00:30:42,769 Outside of that, it's much higher. 659 00:30:42,769 --> 00:30:43,560 Everybody can park. 660 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,470 About 95% of car commuters enjoy free parking. 661 00:30:46,470 --> 00:30:50,400 So if it doesn't cost you to own a car or to operate it and you 662 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,360 can park free-- you can leave your piece of metal doing 663 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:58,650 nothing and taking up real estate in a city with no cost-- 664 00:30:58,650 --> 00:31:00,460 then you might go ahead and do that. 665 00:31:00,460 --> 00:31:04,940 So it's a highly developed urban road system. 666 00:31:04,940 --> 00:31:08,420 We have more roads, wider roads, longer roads 667 00:31:08,420 --> 00:31:11,010 than in other parts of the world, 668 00:31:11,010 --> 00:31:14,270 especially if we compare Europe. 669 00:31:14,270 --> 00:31:17,220 And we're talking here about the 10 largest cities in the US. 670 00:31:17,220 --> 00:31:18,770 We're not talking about rural areas. 671 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,120 What do people say when they're advocating for transit? 672 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,660 What are the traditional arguments 673 00:31:25,660 --> 00:31:28,720 put forth for transit being good and therefore 674 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,130 we should support transit, we should fund transit? 675 00:31:31,130 --> 00:31:32,630 The equity is a big one. 676 00:31:32,630 --> 00:31:39,310 So access for people who cannot drive or choose not to drive. 677 00:31:39,310 --> 00:31:42,160 So we're talking about elderly, handicapped, 678 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,690 children who can't drive, poor people 679 00:31:46,690 --> 00:31:48,520 who can't afford to buy their own car 680 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,170 or to use modes like Uber, for example. 681 00:31:51,170 --> 00:31:52,420 So that's the equity argument. 682 00:31:52,420 --> 00:31:55,090 And that's a very sound argument. 683 00:31:55,090 --> 00:31:55,880 Congestion. 684 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,210 So people say put public transportation 685 00:31:58,210 --> 00:32:00,070 to alleviate congestion. 686 00:32:00,070 --> 00:32:03,490 That's not such a good argument because lots of the studies 687 00:32:03,490 --> 00:32:06,190 that we've looked at, even when a lot of people 688 00:32:06,190 --> 00:32:08,980 do take public transportation when a new system is put in, 689 00:32:08,980 --> 00:32:11,680 the capacity released in the streets 690 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:12,910 is usually very quickly. 691 00:32:15,540 --> 00:32:17,290 They demand it again. 692 00:32:17,290 --> 00:32:20,950 So that is not a very effective method, by itself, 693 00:32:20,950 --> 00:32:22,270 for reducing congestion. 694 00:32:22,270 --> 00:32:26,350 If you tie it to other things like parking taxes or parking 695 00:32:26,350 --> 00:32:31,060 caps or tolls, then with a combination 696 00:32:31,060 --> 00:32:33,850 of an increase in public transportation supply 697 00:32:33,850 --> 00:32:38,230 and an increase in cost or disutility for taking the car, 698 00:32:38,230 --> 00:32:40,120 you can have an impact on congestion. 699 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:41,270 Land use. 700 00:32:41,270 --> 00:32:45,580 So if you want a nicer, walkable city, 701 00:32:45,580 --> 00:32:48,160 then you should have public transportation. 702 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,380 If you're driving your car from home to work, 703 00:32:50,380 --> 00:32:52,030 you're not going to stop. 704 00:32:52,030 --> 00:32:53,740 You're going to work. 705 00:32:53,740 --> 00:32:55,960 And so when you're taking public transportation 706 00:32:55,960 --> 00:33:00,010 and you stop along dense corridors 707 00:33:00,010 --> 00:33:02,890 and you probably won't get dropped off immediately 708 00:33:02,890 --> 00:33:06,130 where you're going to so you might have to walk by stores 709 00:33:06,130 --> 00:33:08,830 and by restaurants, that's going to generate 710 00:33:08,830 --> 00:33:09,970 commercial activity. 711 00:33:09,970 --> 00:33:15,520 And it's going to support a land use that is of nicer quality 712 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,460 than the car might do by itself. 713 00:33:18,460 --> 00:33:19,270 Environmental. 714 00:33:19,270 --> 00:33:24,120 So if people say, let's put public transportation in 715 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,970 because it's good for the environment. 716 00:33:25,970 --> 00:33:28,800 Well, it turns out that actually it's 717 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:33,210 more effective to work on the car technology-- 718 00:33:33,210 --> 00:33:35,090 hybrid cars, fuel efficiency. 719 00:33:35,090 --> 00:33:38,550 It's a much more effective way to help the environment just 720 00:33:38,550 --> 00:33:41,260 because so many people drive. 721 00:33:41,260 --> 00:33:43,410 The mode split is so much. 722 00:33:43,410 --> 00:33:46,990 It's about 80% for a car. 723 00:33:46,990 --> 00:33:52,640 It makes a bigger dent to work on car energy efficiency. 724 00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,050 Same with energy. 725 00:33:54,050 --> 00:33:56,030 It has to do with the same things. 726 00:33:56,030 --> 00:33:56,960 OK, other arguments. 727 00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,000 So economic expenditures for private autos 728 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,930 may be used to improve local economies and quality of life. 729 00:34:02,930 --> 00:34:07,670 So we say we subsidize the private auto. 730 00:34:07,670 --> 00:34:09,710 Because people, through their user fees, 731 00:34:09,710 --> 00:34:12,530 are only paying for about 60% of the costs. 732 00:34:12,530 --> 00:34:15,949 The remaining cost is coming from tax revenue that 733 00:34:15,949 --> 00:34:18,650 could have been spent on nicer cities and nicer 734 00:34:18,650 --> 00:34:21,449 public transportation systems. 735 00:34:21,449 --> 00:34:23,340 And then there's the agglomeration benefits. 736 00:34:23,340 --> 00:34:25,920 If you want to increase the economic activity 737 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,949 and the socioeconomic welfare of a city, 738 00:34:28,949 --> 00:34:30,600 then you can put in transit because it 739 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,340 supports higher densities. 740 00:34:32,340 --> 00:34:35,909 So how would New York and Boston and San Francisco 741 00:34:35,909 --> 00:34:39,150 be or have developed if they didn't 742 00:34:39,150 --> 00:34:42,582 have their public transportation systems right now? 743 00:34:42,582 --> 00:34:44,790 They really would be nothing like they are right now. 744 00:34:44,790 --> 00:34:48,270 If you took Manhattan and shut down all the metros-- 745 00:34:48,270 --> 00:34:51,060 and we've had these real-life experiments when hurricanes 746 00:34:51,060 --> 00:34:52,170 come around-- 747 00:34:52,170 --> 00:34:53,850 the city shuts down. 748 00:34:53,850 --> 00:34:57,480 You can't commute into the city without these systems. 749 00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,700 There is not enough capacity on the roads 750 00:34:59,700 --> 00:35:02,770 to bringing all those people in and to support that economy. 751 00:35:02,770 --> 00:35:06,270 So there is a benefit to having these systems in. 752 00:35:06,270 --> 00:35:09,270 But because these investments were made sometimes 753 00:35:09,270 --> 00:35:12,970 a century ago, nobody is talking about 754 00:35:12,970 --> 00:35:17,650 or quantifying the benefit in assigning it to that system. 755 00:35:17,650 --> 00:35:19,720 So the contribution of earlier investments, 756 00:35:19,720 --> 00:35:22,230 especially in heavy rail, is not being valued. 757 00:35:22,230 --> 00:35:24,550 That has changed a little bit recently. 758 00:35:24,550 --> 00:35:27,810 So when London was doing its economic analysis 759 00:35:27,810 --> 00:35:31,200 for Crossrail, a big metro system across the city, 760 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,270 they did say, we need a long view. 761 00:35:33,270 --> 00:35:38,430 This is going to have benefits lasting many, many decades. 762 00:35:38,430 --> 00:35:40,410 We're not looking at a 20, 30-year horizon. 763 00:35:40,410 --> 00:35:42,120 We're looking at way beyond that. 764 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,700 We want London to prosper and to become more dense 765 00:35:44,700 --> 00:35:48,660 and to have higher agglomeration benefits. 766 00:35:48,660 --> 00:35:51,840 So other arguments are that transit 767 00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,380 decreases the external costs of transportation in cities. 768 00:35:55,380 --> 00:35:57,540 So when we look at things like accidents, 769 00:35:57,540 --> 00:35:59,835 you're less likely to be to get into an accident 770 00:35:59,835 --> 00:36:04,380 if you're in a bus than if you are driving a car. 771 00:36:04,380 --> 00:36:06,390 Impacts on human health. 772 00:36:06,390 --> 00:36:10,695 Any clue about what I mean by that? 773 00:36:10,695 --> 00:36:11,564 AUDIENCE: Walking. 774 00:36:11,564 --> 00:36:12,480 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Yeah. 775 00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:12,980 Walking. 776 00:36:12,980 --> 00:36:14,240 So you walk a little more. 777 00:36:14,240 --> 00:36:14,740 Yeah. 778 00:36:18,650 --> 00:36:22,760 There's the impact of if you have a lot of traffic 779 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,470 and you're sort of sitting in traffic, 780 00:36:24,470 --> 00:36:27,200 you're breathing in dirty air. 781 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,860 So if that's the case, pollution kills people slowly 782 00:36:30,860 --> 00:36:34,640 but at a higher rate than accidents and other things. 783 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,700 So these are the impacts on human health. 784 00:36:37,700 --> 00:36:40,940 And I did say earlier that public transportation by itself 785 00:36:40,940 --> 00:36:42,590 is not going to address that. 786 00:36:42,590 --> 00:36:45,890 But if you pair it with some policy that 787 00:36:45,890 --> 00:36:50,180 will curb the private auto demand and reduce emissions, 788 00:36:50,180 --> 00:36:53,164 then you can have an impact on health care, 789 00:36:53,164 --> 00:36:54,830 healthier costs from the government side 790 00:36:54,830 --> 00:36:58,350 and the human health for people. 791 00:36:58,350 --> 00:37:02,000 So again, congestion, noise. 792 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:06,800 We can reduce the noise of cars on streets. 793 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,430 And climate change, global warming. 794 00:37:10,430 --> 00:37:15,460 Here's a nice picture of public transportation catalyzing 795 00:37:15,460 --> 00:37:17,110 sort of the urban fabric. 796 00:37:17,110 --> 00:37:19,630 So making cities more walkable just 797 00:37:19,630 --> 00:37:23,297 to highlight what we said earlier. 798 00:37:23,297 --> 00:37:24,130 Critical assessment. 799 00:37:24,130 --> 00:37:27,610 So we've stabilized public transport in North America. 800 00:37:27,610 --> 00:37:31,150 We saw that, in the 1990s, we had 801 00:37:31,150 --> 00:37:33,130 an increase in the mode share of auto 802 00:37:33,130 --> 00:37:35,050 and a decrease in public transport and walking 803 00:37:35,050 --> 00:37:35,830 and biking. 804 00:37:35,830 --> 00:37:39,459 And now, that's starting to come back up. 805 00:37:39,459 --> 00:37:41,500 There are many new rail initiatives like Phoenix, 806 00:37:41,500 --> 00:37:42,624 Denver, and Salt Lake City. 807 00:37:42,624 --> 00:37:44,410 And they are successful. 808 00:37:44,410 --> 00:37:47,110 And especially if we look at older systems like New York 809 00:37:47,110 --> 00:37:49,600 City but also at some of the not-so-old ones like Houston 810 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:53,080 and Seattle, we see very successful systems 811 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,240 that are being heavily used and are 812 00:37:55,240 --> 00:38:01,030 contributing to nicer land use and developing the economy. 813 00:38:01,030 --> 00:38:03,610 Institutional change is occurring very slowly, maybe 814 00:38:03,610 --> 00:38:05,260 too slowly. 815 00:38:05,260 --> 00:38:08,390 Many things are changing in terms of technology, 816 00:38:08,390 --> 00:38:10,090 in terms of policy, in terms of what 817 00:38:10,090 --> 00:38:12,060 the private sector is offering. 818 00:38:12,060 --> 00:38:15,590 And the public sector is not catching up. 819 00:38:15,590 --> 00:38:17,210 It's not moving as quickly. 820 00:38:17,210 --> 00:38:20,930 So another challenge is the retention of political support. 821 00:38:20,930 --> 00:38:22,690 So yes, question here. 822 00:38:22,690 --> 00:38:24,485 AUDIENCE: This is just North America? 823 00:38:24,485 --> 00:38:26,610 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: This is focusing in North America. 824 00:38:26,610 --> 00:38:27,430 AUDIENCE: Because China, for example, 825 00:38:27,430 --> 00:38:29,221 is building a crazy amount of [INAUDIBLE].. 826 00:38:29,221 --> 00:38:31,780 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: But they also have 827 00:38:31,780 --> 00:38:34,110 a big increase in private auto. 828 00:38:34,110 --> 00:38:36,420 So both things are happening. 829 00:38:40,170 --> 00:38:43,590 So retention of political support is another challenge. 830 00:38:43,590 --> 00:38:49,320 So just keeping everyone happy and having those stakeholders 831 00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:53,430 in a political constituency happy enough 832 00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:57,870 to support you and not try to defund 833 00:38:57,870 --> 00:39:00,030 the public transportation sector. 834 00:39:00,030 --> 00:39:05,340 Especially-- that's critical if public interpretation 835 00:39:05,340 --> 00:39:08,190 is much better at serving the most dense corridors 836 00:39:08,190 --> 00:39:10,710 and you're only benefiting people there. 837 00:39:10,710 --> 00:39:13,890 And people from, for example, the rest of the state 838 00:39:13,890 --> 00:39:15,630 don't see a direct benefit. 839 00:39:15,630 --> 00:39:18,600 But they're putting sales tax into that system. 840 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,480 That's a tricky thing politically. 841 00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,030 So that's another challenge. 842 00:39:24,030 --> 00:39:28,570 So we expect to see continued growth in the periphery. 843 00:39:28,570 --> 00:39:31,371 So suburbanization. 844 00:39:31,371 --> 00:39:32,620 Health care is getting better. 845 00:39:32,620 --> 00:39:35,910 So the percent of people that are old and can't drive 846 00:39:35,910 --> 00:39:37,270 is going up. 847 00:39:37,270 --> 00:39:39,240 And so that might mean that we might 848 00:39:39,240 --> 00:39:41,320 need more public transport. 849 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,150 Technology is changing. 850 00:39:43,150 --> 00:39:46,300 Telecommunications is advancing rapidly now 851 00:39:46,300 --> 00:39:49,870 with all the internet of things and sensors everywhere. 852 00:39:49,870 --> 00:39:51,230 We do get a lot of data. 853 00:39:51,230 --> 00:39:54,732 And we can start using that data to plan better systems 854 00:39:54,732 --> 00:39:56,440 and to analyze how people are using them. 855 00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,900 And we'll get to that later in this course. 856 00:39:59,900 --> 00:40:04,330 The public has a higher expectation. 857 00:40:04,330 --> 00:40:05,980 Because you have a smartphone and you 858 00:40:05,980 --> 00:40:08,560 can know where the bus is, you sort of 859 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,780 are more aware of the system. 860 00:40:10,780 --> 00:40:13,330 And you might start to demand higher quality service. 861 00:40:13,330 --> 00:40:16,090 And if other parts of the world or other systems are doing it 862 00:40:16,090 --> 00:40:20,020 and mine isn't, then I'm starting to expect that-- 863 00:40:20,020 --> 00:40:23,710 I know about it because we share all of this information 864 00:40:23,710 --> 00:40:25,580 through YouTube and the internet. 865 00:40:25,580 --> 00:40:28,000 So I want the same thing in my city. 866 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,650 And I want the same thing in my system. 867 00:40:30,650 --> 00:40:32,290 And then finally-- and this is very 868 00:40:32,290 --> 00:40:34,660 recent-- the transportation network company. 869 00:40:34,660 --> 00:40:39,090 So the likes of Uber and Lyft are making a dent 870 00:40:39,090 --> 00:40:41,590 on the demand and the mobile split. 871 00:40:41,590 --> 00:40:44,710 So this is somewhere in between where it's not your own auto 872 00:40:44,710 --> 00:40:46,690 and you're paying for something. 873 00:40:46,690 --> 00:40:49,540 You might be carpooling so in some sense it's public, 874 00:40:49,540 --> 00:40:50,230 but not really. 875 00:40:50,230 --> 00:40:53,590 So the other challenge here is that a lot of these 876 00:40:53,590 --> 00:40:57,790 are startups that are heavily funded by venture capital. 877 00:40:57,790 --> 00:41:01,540 And they are spending more money than they can make 878 00:41:01,540 --> 00:41:03,970 through their fair revenues. 879 00:41:03,970 --> 00:41:08,680 So it's not clear how that will play out as the years go by 880 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:10,120 and if they can keep their prices 881 00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,750 and remain as competitive. 882 00:41:13,750 --> 00:41:16,070 So ingredients for future success. 883 00:41:16,070 --> 00:41:20,590 So again, speaking of the political constituencies, 884 00:41:20,590 --> 00:41:23,020 maintaining a supportive coalition. 885 00:41:23,020 --> 00:41:27,280 So making sure that you expand that base of people 886 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:28,900 who benefit from public transport 887 00:41:28,900 --> 00:41:31,360 and make the case that, even if you're not directly 888 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:35,350 using public transportation, it has economic benefit for you. 889 00:41:35,350 --> 00:41:40,420 So that's necessary if we want to move forward, especially 890 00:41:40,420 --> 00:41:44,950 with the government funding local and state taxes 891 00:41:44,950 --> 00:41:47,780 for example for public transportation. 892 00:41:47,780 --> 00:41:50,050 Expand the definition of public transport. 893 00:41:50,050 --> 00:41:53,860 There is now a greater variety of services 894 00:41:53,860 --> 00:41:55,270 and more flexibility. 895 00:41:55,270 --> 00:41:58,550 And public transportation systems 896 00:41:58,550 --> 00:42:02,910 are starting to consider different vehicle sizes 897 00:42:02,910 --> 00:42:05,010 and partnering with transportation network 898 00:42:05,010 --> 00:42:11,190 companies to achieve higher efficiencies 899 00:42:11,190 --> 00:42:17,880 and just target their supply to particular demands 900 00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,280 and densities. 901 00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,500 A greater involvement of the private sector. 902 00:42:22,500 --> 00:42:27,360 So the use of transportation network companies 903 00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:28,020 is one example. 904 00:42:28,020 --> 00:42:31,620 But also partnerships with the private sector 905 00:42:31,620 --> 00:42:36,390 to operate bus service, so public private partnerships. 906 00:42:36,390 --> 00:42:39,060 And innovative financing and procurement techniques 907 00:42:39,060 --> 00:42:44,440 for construction of new lines or operations. 908 00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,370 Aggressive implementation of new technology. 909 00:42:46,370 --> 00:42:50,020 So now, again, I said, more sensors, more data, 910 00:42:50,020 --> 00:42:51,250 better information provision. 911 00:42:51,250 --> 00:42:54,640 Tell your customers, your passengers where the vehicles 912 00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,560 are, what the reliability is. 913 00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,230 Make more effective decisions like real-time operations 914 00:42:59,230 --> 00:43:02,320 control to keep your system operating as you planned it. 915 00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,210 We'll have an entire election on real-time control later on. 916 00:43:05,210 --> 00:43:08,150 And you can improve your vehicle designs-- so all these things, 917 00:43:08,150 --> 00:43:08,650 right? 918 00:43:08,650 --> 00:43:10,960 So when I refer to improve vehicle design, 919 00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,810 we'll talk more about this in the next lecture. 920 00:43:13,810 --> 00:43:17,200 We have cleaner technologies, more fuel efficient, 921 00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:18,740 more quiet. 922 00:43:18,740 --> 00:43:22,840 So technology can be used to improve the experience. 923 00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,990 And then there's the organizational change. 924 00:43:25,990 --> 00:43:27,620 So that needs to happen. 925 00:43:27,620 --> 00:43:30,890 And the public sector is a little slow in this regard. 926 00:43:30,890 --> 00:43:35,170 So greater operating staff responsibility, accountability. 927 00:43:35,170 --> 00:43:38,170 In many agencies, we have the problem that it's not clear 928 00:43:38,170 --> 00:43:40,030 who is responsible for what. 929 00:43:40,030 --> 00:43:42,400 And so whenever some decision has 930 00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,390 to be made, who do you go to get that signature? 931 00:43:46,390 --> 00:43:47,404 Who approves it? 932 00:43:47,404 --> 00:43:48,820 You have to talk to several people 933 00:43:48,820 --> 00:43:50,310 in different departments. 934 00:43:50,310 --> 00:43:51,700 And it just gets slow. 935 00:43:51,700 --> 00:43:53,740 So even for the simple things, and sometimes 936 00:43:53,740 --> 00:43:58,140 especially for simple things, it's a little slow. 937 00:43:58,140 --> 00:44:00,750 So also increased customer orientation. 938 00:44:00,750 --> 00:44:04,360 There's a culture, especially in the more traditional 939 00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:09,340 public transportation agencies, that you run service. 940 00:44:09,340 --> 00:44:13,300 And you don't really think about people and serving people 941 00:44:13,300 --> 00:44:15,040 as if they were your customers. 942 00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:16,690 But that's changing. 943 00:44:16,690 --> 00:44:19,480 Some agencies, the most cutting-edge agencies, 944 00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,420 are really treating people as their customers 945 00:44:22,420 --> 00:44:26,200 and doing marketing and reaching out to their customer base 946 00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,770 to run surveys, understand what makes them unhappy, 947 00:44:29,770 --> 00:44:32,200 use that information to make better decisions 948 00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,110 to respond to the feedback. 949 00:44:35,110 --> 00:44:37,890 So that's the end of my introductory presentation. 950 00:44:37,890 --> 00:44:42,050 We're done a little early, which is fine because today 951 00:44:42,050 --> 00:44:42,950 is the first lecture. 952 00:44:42,950 --> 00:44:46,430 So if you have questions about any of what we talked about, 953 00:44:46,430 --> 00:44:47,470 please let me know. 954 00:44:47,470 --> 00:44:49,610 You might want to ask that question right now so 955 00:44:49,610 --> 00:44:51,190 that other people can benefit. 956 00:44:51,190 --> 00:44:55,460 But if not, you can also just come to me and we can chat. 957 00:44:55,460 --> 00:44:57,070 Yeah, so. 958 00:44:57,070 --> 00:44:57,570 Yeah. 959 00:44:57,570 --> 00:44:59,530 AUDIENCE: Do you want to say a few words about the assignment 960 00:44:59,530 --> 00:45:00,510 1? 961 00:45:00,510 --> 00:45:01,590 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Sure. 962 00:45:01,590 --> 00:45:03,270 Well, I already did a little bit. 963 00:45:03,270 --> 00:45:07,560 So it's an introduction to cyclical transportation 964 00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:08,280 systems. 965 00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:15,970 So your first task is to go out and go into Stellar. 966 00:45:15,970 --> 00:45:17,380 And I'm doing this on purpose. 967 00:45:17,380 --> 00:45:19,770 I want to make sure that you have access to Stellar 968 00:45:19,770 --> 00:45:21,311 because we're going to be using that. 969 00:45:21,311 --> 00:45:22,950 So go to Stellar. 970 00:45:22,950 --> 00:45:24,126 Look at the reading. 971 00:45:24,126 --> 00:45:25,500 The reading is very introductory. 972 00:45:25,500 --> 00:45:29,670 And it introduces you to the idea of cycle time and headway 973 00:45:29,670 --> 00:45:30,960 and all these things. 974 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,180 And that's how you think as an engineer 975 00:45:33,180 --> 00:45:36,010 of planning a public transportation system 976 00:45:36,010 --> 00:45:39,620 and determining how many vehicles you need to operate 977 00:45:39,620 --> 00:45:43,440 a service and the impact of running time variability 978 00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:44,970 on your system and the cost. 979 00:45:44,970 --> 00:45:49,650 So we're just getting our feet wet with a very simple example. 980 00:45:49,650 --> 00:45:52,020 And I've generated some data that you'll 981 00:45:52,020 --> 00:45:56,460 be analyzing in a very step-by-step fashion 982 00:45:56,460 --> 00:45:58,367 to sort of guide you through that process. 983 00:45:58,367 --> 00:45:59,950 Later on in the semester, you're going 984 00:45:59,950 --> 00:46:05,340 to get real data, which is not going to be as nicely laid out. 985 00:46:05,340 --> 00:46:09,690 And you're going to have a more challenging task of actually 986 00:46:09,690 --> 00:46:12,390 planning service using real data. 987 00:46:12,390 --> 00:46:20,910 So this is an opportunity to get the concepts sort of ingrained 988 00:46:20,910 --> 00:46:25,320 and make sure you master them before you tackle 989 00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,450 the more challenging task of doing it 990 00:46:27,450 --> 00:46:29,760 with real data on a messier situation 991 00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,214 but on a more realistic situation. 992 00:46:32,214 --> 00:46:34,244 AUDIENCE: How do you wish that we submit it? 993 00:46:34,244 --> 00:46:35,410 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: On Stellar. 994 00:46:35,410 --> 00:46:36,930 I don't want any paper submissions. 995 00:46:36,930 --> 00:46:38,100 The other thing is-- 996 00:46:38,100 --> 00:46:39,030 so yeah. 997 00:46:39,030 --> 00:46:42,930 Please save your files as PDF and upload them to Stellar. 998 00:46:42,930 --> 00:46:46,470 So the preferred format would be PDF. 999 00:46:46,470 --> 00:46:51,520 And the other thing you can do for this one is a spreadsheet. 1000 00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,750 So if you want, you can work on a spreadsheet. 1001 00:46:54,750 --> 00:46:59,460 And just please be very clear about here's question 1. 1002 00:46:59,460 --> 00:47:02,169 And lay it out clearly for me and explain. 1003 00:47:02,169 --> 00:47:03,210 There's some explanation. 1004 00:47:03,210 --> 00:47:04,890 Don't just plug and chug. 1005 00:47:04,890 --> 00:47:06,610 Please explain your logic. 1006 00:47:06,610 --> 00:47:07,860 A few sentences suffice. 1007 00:47:07,860 --> 00:47:11,280 But explain why you chose to do this 1008 00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,620 and what your calculations mean. 1009 00:47:13,620 --> 00:47:16,290 And you can just send me the spreadsheet instead of the PDF 1010 00:47:16,290 --> 00:47:16,980 if you want. 1011 00:47:16,980 --> 00:47:21,830 And that could help because I can see your work. 1012 00:47:21,830 --> 00:47:22,360 All right. 1013 00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:23,210 He had a question. 1014 00:47:23,210 --> 00:47:23,876 AUDIENCE: Sorry. 1015 00:47:23,876 --> 00:47:27,754 Yeah, this is sort of a semantic thing. 1016 00:47:27,754 --> 00:47:30,244 When you said the success of the Houston system, 1017 00:47:30,244 --> 00:47:33,240 what were you suggesting there? 1018 00:47:33,240 --> 00:47:38,350 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Well, I mean, demand has gone up, right? 1019 00:47:38,350 --> 00:47:40,751 There are many ways of measuring the success of a system. 1020 00:47:40,751 --> 00:47:41,250 But-- 1021 00:47:41,250 --> 00:47:42,172 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] your bus system 1022 00:47:42,172 --> 00:47:43,797 or is it that they built a rail system? 1023 00:47:43,797 --> 00:47:44,435 Or-- 1024 00:47:44,435 --> 00:47:45,810 GABRIEL SANCHEZ: Just in general. 1025 00:47:45,810 --> 00:47:48,180 I mean, it's a system that was put in. 1026 00:47:48,180 --> 00:47:51,880 And yeah, it could be more successful. 1027 00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,120 But people are using it. 1028 00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:59,910 And it's having some impact on the city. 1029 00:47:59,910 --> 00:48:00,670 And it's visible. 1030 00:48:00,670 --> 00:48:07,350 So any other questions? 1031 00:48:07,350 --> 00:48:07,950 All right. 1032 00:48:07,950 --> 00:48:10,100 Class dismissed.