WEBVTT 00:00:01.040 --> 00:00:03.380 The following content is provided under a Creative 00:00:03.380 --> 00:00:04.770 Commons license. 00:00:04.770 --> 00:00:06.980 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 00:00:06.980 --> 00:00:11.070 continue to offer high-quality educational resources for free. 00:00:11.070 --> 00:00:13.640 To make a donation or to view additional materials 00:00:13.640 --> 00:00:17.600 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 00:00:17.600 --> 00:00:18.486 at ocw.mit.edu. 00:00:22.154 --> 00:00:24.710 NEEMA NASSIR: Let's go ahead and start. 00:00:24.710 --> 00:00:26.730 Good afternoon, everyone. 00:00:26.730 --> 00:00:28.070 My name is Neema Nassir. 00:00:28.070 --> 00:00:31.520 I'm a post-doctoral associate at Transit Lab, MIT. 00:00:31.520 --> 00:00:36.110 I've been invited to give a few lectures in this course 00:00:36.110 --> 00:00:41.180 and basically participate in delivering the course 00:00:41.180 --> 00:00:42.630 material for this course. 00:00:42.630 --> 00:00:47.970 I will be talking in this session 00:00:47.970 --> 00:00:52.130 and in the next session on Short-range Planning Practice. 00:00:52.130 --> 00:00:57.950 And then I'll be back again in April and in four sessions 00:00:57.950 --> 00:01:01.670 in April, lecture number 13, 14, 15, and 16 00:01:01.670 --> 00:01:04.410 dealing with vehicle scheduling, crew scheduling, network 00:01:04.410 --> 00:01:11.840 and root structure and high ridership corridors. 00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:15.090 So let's go ahead and start. 00:01:15.090 --> 00:01:20.070 In this session, we are going to talk about short-range planning 00:01:20.070 --> 00:01:21.420 practice. 00:01:21.420 --> 00:01:25.890 And basically, I will give a brief set of definition 00:01:25.890 --> 00:01:29.400 and concepts and introduction to the planning 00:01:29.400 --> 00:01:32.310 activities that are usually made at transit authorities 00:01:32.310 --> 00:01:37.150 in the US and also worldwide. 00:01:37.150 --> 00:01:40.200 And then we will briefly talk about the measures 00:01:40.200 --> 00:01:44.550 and the standards and guidelines that are published and used 00:01:44.550 --> 00:01:51.690 by transit agencies to plan their service based on those. 00:01:51.690 --> 00:01:56.820 Then we will also talk about current practice and critique 00:01:56.820 --> 00:02:00.780 of the existing systems. 00:02:00.780 --> 00:02:06.630 Probably we will cover icon 1 and some material in icon 2 00:02:06.630 --> 00:02:07.650 this week. 00:02:07.650 --> 00:02:13.230 And then the rest will actually be delivered to you 00:02:13.230 --> 00:02:14.865 in our session next Tuesday. 00:02:20.570 --> 00:02:26.350 So the planning decisions and the planning activities that 00:02:26.350 --> 00:02:30.740 are usually done at the transportation planning 00:02:30.740 --> 00:02:34.490 agencies and public transport planning agencies usually can 00:02:34.490 --> 00:02:38.990 be classified into four different type of decisions 00:02:38.990 --> 00:02:42.500 depending on frequency of decision-making and the need 00:02:42.500 --> 00:02:47.840 for making decisions and the scope of decisions-- 00:02:47.840 --> 00:02:52.580 the scope of changes that are related to the decisions that 00:02:52.580 --> 00:02:55.370 are made with each activity. 00:02:55.370 --> 00:02:57.530 These planning activities are divided 00:02:57.530 --> 00:03:01.130 into four different classes-- 00:03:01.130 --> 00:03:05.540 long range planning activities, medium range, short range, 00:03:05.540 --> 00:03:07.640 and control. 00:03:07.640 --> 00:03:11.480 Long range planning activities basically include 00:03:11.480 --> 00:03:13.490 major capital investment-- 00:03:13.490 --> 00:03:16.370 major improvements to the infrastructure-- 00:03:16.370 --> 00:03:21.230 which would include construction of a new station, a new rail 00:03:21.230 --> 00:03:24.050 line, a new bus way to the system. 00:03:24.050 --> 00:03:28.820 Or it could also be related to and as a result 00:03:28.820 --> 00:03:36.660 of major institutional changes and changes to the, basically, 00:03:36.660 --> 00:03:41.180 financial resources of the organization. 00:03:41.180 --> 00:03:44.420 The decisions that [INAUDIBLE] involve long range planning 00:03:44.420 --> 00:03:49.730 are usually driven by political and economic considerations. 00:03:49.730 --> 00:03:53.510 And basically, the type of analysis 00:03:53.510 --> 00:03:57.470 and the type of planning that is done in long range planning 00:03:57.470 --> 00:04:03.740 activities involve projection into the future and prediction 00:04:03.740 --> 00:04:07.860 of demand and prediction of situation in the future. 00:04:07.860 --> 00:04:10.760 Therefore, it requires a comprehensive analysis 00:04:10.760 --> 00:04:16.940 usually for any strategic planning of interactions 00:04:16.940 --> 00:04:20.120 between changes in land use and interaction 00:04:20.120 --> 00:04:22.460 between land use and demand in the future. 00:04:22.460 --> 00:04:27.290 And it basically needs to capture or have, like, 00:04:27.290 --> 00:04:34.470 an insight into the future of the network and of the region. 00:04:34.470 --> 00:04:38.700 The next range is basically or the next class 00:04:38.700 --> 00:04:42.750 of planning activities is basically 00:04:42.750 --> 00:04:45.000 the medium range activities. 00:04:45.000 --> 00:04:49.080 Medium range activities include bus network structure design, 00:04:49.080 --> 00:04:53.190 network size design and improvement, fleet size, 00:04:53.190 --> 00:04:55.020 fare policy and technology. 00:04:55.020 --> 00:05:01.590 It basically involves incremental or medium 00:05:01.590 --> 00:05:08.865 improvement to the system and to the transit service. 00:05:11.510 --> 00:05:14.750 One point that I need to mention about the long range and medium 00:05:14.750 --> 00:05:17.900 range is that these two, although 00:05:17.900 --> 00:05:20.900 are really important in the planning 00:05:20.900 --> 00:05:23.330 practice for transportation systems, 00:05:23.330 --> 00:05:28.400 but these decisions are usually done at the upper level-- 00:05:28.400 --> 00:05:32.090 at the higher lever than the transit authority. 00:05:32.090 --> 00:05:34.190 For example, long range decisions 00:05:34.190 --> 00:05:39.890 are usually done in collaboration 00:05:39.890 --> 00:05:43.700 between NPO's metropolitan planning organizations, 00:05:43.700 --> 00:05:45.530 state departments of transportation, 00:05:45.530 --> 00:05:46.910 and transit authorities. 00:05:46.910 --> 00:05:49.490 So the transit authority is not the final decision maker 00:05:49.490 --> 00:05:50.630 in that case. 00:05:50.630 --> 00:05:55.940 And it needs close interaction and close collaboration 00:05:55.940 --> 00:05:58.190 with the higher level organizations 00:05:58.190 --> 00:06:01.309 and governmental agencies to make the final decisions. 00:06:01.309 --> 00:06:02.600 So that's about the long range. 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:04.760 Medium range is also somehow similar. 00:06:04.760 --> 00:06:06.500 It usually, for example, the decisions 00:06:06.500 --> 00:06:09.740 that are related to the network structure, although there 00:06:09.740 --> 00:06:15.050 is a lot of interesting research going on in universities that 00:06:15.050 --> 00:06:18.680 deals with optimization of network design and optimization 00:06:18.680 --> 00:06:22.760 of the structure of the network, because what happens 00:06:22.760 --> 00:06:26.750 in practice is that usually in the networks that we live 00:06:26.750 --> 00:06:30.830 and in current cities, the actual layout and structure 00:06:30.830 --> 00:06:32.760 of the network is already given. 00:06:32.760 --> 00:06:37.300 And it's usually rare or impossible that we 00:06:37.300 --> 00:06:41.630 start from scratch and start to design a network from scratch 00:06:41.630 --> 00:06:44.490 to begin with. 00:06:44.490 --> 00:06:47.660 So therefore, what we usually observe 00:06:47.660 --> 00:06:51.620 is incremental changes to the network and addition 00:06:51.620 --> 00:06:56.210 or elimination of some routes from the service and basically, 00:06:56.210 --> 00:06:58.184 decisions that are related to that. 00:06:58.184 --> 00:06:59.492 AUDIENCE: I have a question. 00:06:59.492 --> 00:07:00.575 NEEMA NASSIR: Yes, please. 00:07:00.575 --> 00:07:02.700 AUDIENCE: In terms of fleet size, 00:07:02.700 --> 00:07:04.710 could that come as a request from the agencies? 00:07:04.710 --> 00:07:07.320 Like, an agency says, we have a bus line. 00:07:07.320 --> 00:07:09.200 It's at capacity or over capacity. 00:07:09.200 --> 00:07:10.790 We need more buses. 00:07:10.790 --> 00:07:13.670 Could it come, like, from a request to the higher level? 00:07:13.670 --> 00:07:15.020 NEEMA NASSIR: Yes, definitely. 00:07:15.020 --> 00:07:23.060 Yeah, but it eventually requires the interaction on those, 00:07:23.060 --> 00:07:27.380 so securing the funding from the upper level 00:07:27.380 --> 00:07:30.010 governmental agencies-- 00:07:30.010 --> 00:07:31.820 so yeah. 00:07:31.820 --> 00:07:36.440 So the reason that I'm explaining this 00:07:36.440 --> 00:07:41.000 is that I'd like for you to understand why we are focusing 00:07:41.000 --> 00:07:44.030 on short range decision-making and short range planning 00:07:44.030 --> 00:07:46.130 practice in this course. 00:07:46.130 --> 00:07:50.480 That's mainly because the bulk part of activities at transit 00:07:50.480 --> 00:07:55.490 agencies is related to short range planning and short range 00:07:55.490 --> 00:07:57.430 decision-making. 00:07:57.430 --> 00:08:00.990 So what we mean by short range decision-making 00:08:00.990 --> 00:08:04.890 are decisions that are usually made more frequently 00:08:04.890 --> 00:08:07.560 than a yearly basis. 00:08:07.560 --> 00:08:10.830 And they basically entail decisions 00:08:10.830 --> 00:08:13.740 about the structures of the route-- 00:08:13.740 --> 00:08:15.990 layout of the route-- layout of the stops-- 00:08:15.990 --> 00:08:22.380 and basically decisions about the frequency of service-- 00:08:22.380 --> 00:08:26.520 timetable-- and vehicle and crew scheduling. 00:08:26.520 --> 00:08:33.210 Despite the top two classes of decision-making 00:08:33.210 --> 00:08:39.659 that are usually driven by political and economic 00:08:39.659 --> 00:08:42.210 considerations, short range decision making 00:08:42.210 --> 00:08:49.890 and control activities are usually basically driven 00:08:49.890 --> 00:08:52.110 by cost optimization. 00:08:52.110 --> 00:08:55.590 And these are basically tactical decisions as opposed 00:08:55.590 --> 00:08:58.620 to strategic decisions that are usually in the long range 00:08:58.620 --> 00:09:00.170 and medium range. 00:09:00.170 --> 00:09:07.960 So then there's real time and control decision-making, 00:09:07.960 --> 00:09:11.100 which is basically usually done currently 00:09:11.100 --> 00:09:16.890 in using expert decision and expert activities. 00:09:20.940 --> 00:09:26.790 There is an ongoing effort in the technology 00:09:26.790 --> 00:09:29.580 to improve the quality of control-- 00:09:29.580 --> 00:09:32.850 ongoing research to use real time data 00:09:32.850 --> 00:09:36.060 and improve the real time performance 00:09:36.060 --> 00:09:38.070 by using real time control. 00:09:38.070 --> 00:09:43.380 This includes revisions of the routes. 00:09:43.380 --> 00:09:48.300 That could be the case in reaction 00:09:48.300 --> 00:09:51.390 to incidents and disruption situation. 00:09:51.390 --> 00:09:55.960 It could also relate to holding and dispatching decisions-- 00:09:55.960 --> 00:09:56.460 thank you-- 00:09:59.250 --> 00:10:02.700 that could actually be used to improve 00:10:02.700 --> 00:10:11.550 the effective capacity of the system by trying to regulate-- 00:10:11.550 --> 00:10:18.730 have a better frequency, basically, in the service. 00:10:18.730 --> 00:10:26.470 So similar to the typical planning problem, 00:10:26.470 --> 00:10:28.780 there are major elements in planning 00:10:28.780 --> 00:10:31.750 for public transportation and particularly 00:10:31.750 --> 00:10:37.930 in short term and short range decision-making. 00:10:37.930 --> 00:10:41.380 It includes data collection similar to what 00:10:41.380 --> 00:10:46.750 you guys have done in your homework assignment number 2. 00:10:46.750 --> 00:10:49.660 Collection of data on demand, collection of data on supply, 00:10:49.660 --> 00:10:51.790 and interaction of supply on demand 00:10:51.790 --> 00:10:55.660 is an essential part to be able to make decisions and make them 00:10:55.660 --> 00:11:00.040 basically reliable and actionable intelligence 00:11:00.040 --> 00:11:02.740 for the decision-making process. 00:11:02.740 --> 00:11:07.630 Then there should be analysis on identification 00:11:07.630 --> 00:11:10.960 of potential problems and identification of opportunities 00:11:10.960 --> 00:11:13.210 to improve the situation. 00:11:13.210 --> 00:11:16.900 And then there is the creative part 00:11:16.900 --> 00:11:20.050 of design of options, solution, and strategies 00:11:20.050 --> 00:11:22.000 to address the situation. 00:11:22.000 --> 00:11:28.180 And then typical to any economic analysis, 00:11:28.180 --> 00:11:30.880 there would be an element of cost 00:11:30.880 --> 00:11:37.450 and benefit estimation to be able to justify the project. 00:11:40.180 --> 00:11:43.810 So in terms of operational planning process 00:11:43.810 --> 00:11:49.030 or in another term short range planning process, 00:11:49.030 --> 00:11:52.450 there are multiple stages involved in the work. 00:11:52.450 --> 00:11:58.450 And usually, what happens is that in practice, 00:11:58.450 --> 00:12:02.050 it is proven that the planning procedure 00:12:02.050 --> 00:12:06.580 can be decomposed into sequential decision-making 00:12:06.580 --> 00:12:08.080 processes. 00:12:08.080 --> 00:12:14.860 And although it is possible to formulate 00:12:14.860 --> 00:12:18.850 all of these decisions into one gigantic optimization problem 00:12:18.850 --> 00:12:22.210 and solve it for all the decision variables 00:12:22.210 --> 00:12:25.910 that you need to basically address, however, 00:12:25.910 --> 00:12:28.180 the practice has shown that there's 00:12:28.180 --> 00:12:31.300 a nice way of decomposing the process 00:12:31.300 --> 00:12:35.170 and to solve problems and solve them sequentially in order 00:12:35.170 --> 00:12:40.390 to make sure that you're satisfying 00:12:40.390 --> 00:12:44.660 all the constraints to the accurate level 00:12:44.660 --> 00:12:47.290 and you're gaining the-- 00:12:47.290 --> 00:12:50.050 you finally get a realistic optimal solution 00:12:50.050 --> 00:12:54.700 for your planning practice. 00:12:54.700 --> 00:13:02.850 Considerations regarding policy constraints and some 00:13:02.850 --> 00:13:05.500 of the economic concerns are usually 00:13:05.500 --> 00:13:10.630 difficult to formulate into optimization problems. 00:13:10.630 --> 00:13:13.090 But there are published guidelines 00:13:13.090 --> 00:13:17.590 by governmental agencies that you can basically 00:13:17.590 --> 00:13:20.740 follow and make sure that at least the top two 00:13:20.740 --> 00:13:25.390 level of the decision-making processes and tasks 00:13:25.390 --> 00:13:30.710 here are basically done to the satisfactory level. 00:13:30.710 --> 00:13:33.760 So let's go ahead and start and review these tasks. 00:13:33.760 --> 00:13:35.380 There are lectures in this course that 00:13:35.380 --> 00:13:39.730 are dealing with each one of these tasks 00:13:39.730 --> 00:13:42.610 and components in planning. 00:13:42.610 --> 00:13:46.060 But in this lecture, I'll just briefly 00:13:46.060 --> 00:13:48.850 go over these different components 00:13:48.850 --> 00:13:56.000 as an introductory part of the course. 00:13:56.000 --> 00:14:02.460 So for every optimization problem 00:14:02.460 --> 00:14:06.435 or in this case planning process, 00:14:06.435 --> 00:14:08.040 we have a set of inputs-- 00:14:08.040 --> 00:14:12.390 constraints-- basically, that you need to satisfy. 00:14:12.390 --> 00:14:14.790 And then there's an objective function 00:14:14.790 --> 00:14:17.880 that you need to optimize-- so inputs. 00:14:17.880 --> 00:14:24.840 So the first component of the planning and practice 00:14:24.840 --> 00:14:28.060 here is bus route design. 00:14:28.060 --> 00:14:31.860 This includes design of layout of the routes 00:14:31.860 --> 00:14:35.700 and layout of the stops. 00:14:35.700 --> 00:14:39.030 And basically, the input into this task 00:14:39.030 --> 00:14:44.040 includes constraints that are related to right-of-way roadway 00:14:44.040 --> 00:14:47.640 constraints, like if there is a river in your network, 00:14:47.640 --> 00:14:48.900 there's this connectivity. 00:14:48.900 --> 00:14:50.580 There are bridges-- tunnels. 00:14:50.580 --> 00:14:54.120 So these are the kind of constraints at network level 00:14:54.120 --> 00:14:56.310 that you would like to satisfy. 00:14:56.310 --> 00:14:58.980 And there's also demand constraints in the network 00:14:58.980 --> 00:15:02.380 that you need to consider for this task, 00:15:02.380 --> 00:15:07.140 like, you have a sense of what's the demand from certain suburb 00:15:07.140 --> 00:15:09.500 to the downtown area. 00:15:09.500 --> 00:15:12.450 And you basically would like to have a route 00:15:12.450 --> 00:15:16.470 system that kind of can address that demand 00:15:16.470 --> 00:15:18.090 and satisfy that demand. 00:15:18.090 --> 00:15:23.521 Then the solution to the design component and that task 00:15:23.521 --> 00:15:25.020 [INAUDIBLE] out of routes and layout 00:15:25.020 --> 00:15:28.650 of the stops that are basically resulting 00:15:28.650 --> 00:15:32.440 from the first component, and then 00:15:32.440 --> 00:15:34.980 the set of routes and stops will be 00:15:34.980 --> 00:15:40.560 input into the second task, which is setting timetables. 00:15:40.560 --> 00:15:45.150 This task includes finding frequencies for the routes 00:15:45.150 --> 00:15:50.040 and from that identifying and defining-- 00:15:50.040 --> 00:15:52.260 basically, generating the timetables 00:15:52.260 --> 00:15:54.410 based on frequencies. 00:15:54.410 --> 00:15:59.250 There are usually considerations related to policy headways, 00:15:59.250 --> 00:16:02.850 policy frequencies, and capacity frequencies 00:16:02.850 --> 00:16:07.240 that need to be addressed in this task. 00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:12.660 But again, this task is also somehow dealt 00:16:12.660 --> 00:16:15.450 with using the existing guidelines 00:16:15.450 --> 00:16:18.380 and just satisfying these guidelines. 00:16:18.380 --> 00:16:20.400 The input and other constraints that 00:16:20.400 --> 00:16:22.920 are considered for this task would 00:16:22.920 --> 00:16:25.680 be level of service guidelines, and again, 00:16:25.680 --> 00:16:30.360 the demand constraints in the network. 00:16:30.360 --> 00:16:35.940 Then from the set of timetables, what will be resulted here 00:16:35.940 --> 00:16:40.530 is the departure times that was scheduled for the service. 00:16:40.530 --> 00:16:45.900 So the first two components of row 1 and row 2, 00:16:45.900 --> 00:16:49.580 basically, are dealing with satisfying the demand 00:16:49.580 --> 00:16:51.280 and satisfying the guidelines. 00:16:51.280 --> 00:16:55.600 But once you go beyond the first two components, 00:16:55.600 --> 00:16:57.914 it becomes to the level that you know 00:16:57.914 --> 00:17:01.050 kind of what's the service you want to deliver. 00:17:01.050 --> 00:17:03.150 And then you're dealing with tactical decision-- 00:17:03.150 --> 00:17:08.579 how you can optimize the cost of delivering this service 00:17:08.579 --> 00:17:10.180 and improve efficiency. 00:17:10.180 --> 00:17:13.589 So did the third row here basically deals 00:17:13.589 --> 00:17:17.369 with the departure times that are 00:17:17.369 --> 00:17:19.470 given for all the routes in the network 00:17:19.470 --> 00:17:22.500 and for all times of day. 00:17:22.500 --> 00:17:24.180 And then what you need to do is how 00:17:24.180 --> 00:17:28.079 you want to allocate your resources in terms 00:17:28.079 --> 00:17:33.210 of allocate the vehicles to the system 00:17:33.210 --> 00:17:35.940 to make sure that that service is 00:17:35.940 --> 00:17:41.190 going to be delivered on time. 00:17:41.190 --> 00:17:45.680 So that would be the task of vehicle scheduling input 00:17:45.680 --> 00:17:47.830 into that task or constraints that are involved 00:17:47.830 --> 00:17:54.080 or running times on different segments of the route 00:17:54.080 --> 00:17:57.930 and also the departure times that are given from upper level 00:17:57.930 --> 00:17:59.580 decision-making process. 00:17:59.580 --> 00:18:02.730 And it will eventually result into a schedule 00:18:02.730 --> 00:18:07.020 of given buses in terms of what are specific trips they 00:18:07.020 --> 00:18:11.020 need to serve and what's the sequence of these trips. 00:18:11.020 --> 00:18:16.660 Then the output from that decision with the vehicle 00:18:16.660 --> 00:18:22.450 schedules into the task of scheduling for drivers, 00:18:22.450 --> 00:18:26.890 this task also include input from operator 00:18:26.890 --> 00:18:31.950 and basically work union constraints, 00:18:31.950 --> 00:18:37.540 like maximum shift hours and, for example, like, 00:18:37.540 --> 00:18:40.870 break times and lunchtimes and maximum separation 00:18:40.870 --> 00:18:42.130 between two shifts. 00:18:42.130 --> 00:18:44.050 And there are rules and regulations 00:18:44.050 --> 00:18:45.430 that are related to that. 00:18:45.430 --> 00:18:50.770 And this task, again, is a task of allocating resources 00:18:50.770 --> 00:18:55.240 to minimize the cost of scheduling drivers 00:18:55.240 --> 00:18:58.000 to deliver the service. 00:18:58.000 --> 00:19:00.520 And the result would be the schedules for the crew. 00:19:03.720 --> 00:19:09.450 So then these decisions can be looked at in another way, 00:19:09.450 --> 00:19:13.170 too, like, we can further classify these decisions 00:19:13.170 --> 00:19:16.470 into service planning decisions and operational planning 00:19:16.470 --> 00:19:18.030 decision. 00:19:18.030 --> 00:19:20.880 Service planning decisions would be the decisions 00:19:20.880 --> 00:19:23.790 that define service as it is perceived and understood 00:19:23.790 --> 00:19:26.700 by public. 00:19:26.700 --> 00:19:29.160 This is basically the part of service 00:19:29.160 --> 00:19:32.435 that is visible to the public. 00:19:32.435 --> 00:19:33.810 And then there are decisions that 00:19:33.810 --> 00:19:36.660 are related to operations, which basically 00:19:36.660 --> 00:19:40.290 defines how operations occur to produce the service. 00:19:40.290 --> 00:19:46.770 This is somehow a black box to the passengers. 00:19:46.770 --> 00:19:51.390 And yeah, basically, the passengers 00:19:51.390 --> 00:19:55.140 should not really care what's the vehicle's schedule 00:19:55.140 --> 00:19:58.950 and what's the crew's schedule that is assigned to the trip, 00:19:58.950 --> 00:20:02.572 as long as trip is being delivered as it is scheduled. 00:20:05.410 --> 00:20:09.100 So in terms of other characteristics 00:20:09.100 --> 00:20:12.670 of these decisions, we, basically, 00:20:12.670 --> 00:20:18.790 for network design frequency setting time table development, 00:20:18.790 --> 00:20:22.320 vehicle scheduling, and crew scheduling, 00:20:22.320 --> 00:20:28.570 the decisions that are involved in planning, basically, 00:20:28.570 --> 00:20:31.840 starting from top to bottom frequency of decisions, 00:20:31.840 --> 00:20:35.140 basically are increased. 00:20:35.140 --> 00:20:40.570 And the scope of decision-making into the future 00:20:40.570 --> 00:20:44.545 is basically become limited and smaller. 00:20:47.530 --> 00:20:55.360 And also, the decision-making in the network design frequency 00:20:55.360 --> 00:20:59.110 setting and timetabling is basically 00:20:59.110 --> 00:21:02.650 made based on guidelines and standards. 00:21:02.650 --> 00:21:06.700 And decision-making on the lower level-- vehicle scheduling 00:21:06.700 --> 00:21:09.220 and crew scheduling-- is made usually 00:21:09.220 --> 00:21:11.650 based on optimization of cost. 00:21:11.650 --> 00:21:18.230 And then given the nature of the decision-making, the tools that 00:21:18.230 --> 00:21:20.480 are used and the techniques that are 00:21:20.480 --> 00:21:25.150 used for solving these planning decision-making processes 00:21:25.150 --> 00:21:33.160 are basically ranging from judgments and manual analysis 00:21:33.160 --> 00:21:36.250 that is more dominated into computer tools that 00:21:36.250 --> 00:21:40.420 are basically designed to solve optimization problems 00:21:40.420 --> 00:21:43.000 for minimizing the cost. 00:21:45.750 --> 00:21:52.080 So similar to the classical evaluation structure, 00:21:52.080 --> 00:21:56.910 when you're dealing with planning questions and planning 00:21:56.910 --> 00:22:01.400 projects or planning alternatives, 00:22:01.400 --> 00:22:04.950 there's this structure that starts with goals, objectives, 00:22:04.950 --> 00:22:07.740 measures, and standards or guidelines. 00:22:07.740 --> 00:22:15.300 So let's just make a quick practice and define a goal 00:22:15.300 --> 00:22:17.520 and then define objectives for that goal, 00:22:17.520 --> 00:22:20.010 and define measures based on that, 00:22:20.010 --> 00:22:32.170 and see how a standard can be defined to make that planning 00:22:32.170 --> 00:22:37.130 decision acceptable. 00:22:37.130 --> 00:22:40.920 So let's define a goal. 00:22:49.110 --> 00:22:51.180 Does anyone have any suggestion? 00:22:53.790 --> 00:22:58.648 What is an important goal for public transportation system? 00:22:58.648 --> 00:23:00.256 AUDIENCE: Maximize ridership. 00:23:00.256 --> 00:23:02.870 NEEMA NASSIR: Maximize ridership, yes. 00:23:02.870 --> 00:23:10.020 So let's say you want to maximize ridership. 00:23:10.020 --> 00:23:11.520 That's your research problem, right? 00:23:11.520 --> 00:23:12.000 AUDIENCE: [CHUCKLING] 00:23:12.000 --> 00:23:12.480 NEEMA NASSIR: [CHUCKLING] 00:23:12.480 --> 00:23:13.440 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 00:23:13.440 --> 00:23:14.330 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:23:14.330 --> 00:23:19.810 [LAUGHTER] So then in terms of objectives, 00:23:19.810 --> 00:23:22.330 what would be an objective that we can define for this? 00:23:25.860 --> 00:23:31.830 I would say probably the peak hour demand 00:23:31.830 --> 00:23:34.380 could be one objective or peak hour 00:23:34.380 --> 00:23:36.660 ridership in certain corridor. 00:23:36.660 --> 00:23:47.600 Let's say peak hour ridership per weekday per month. 00:23:56.625 --> 00:24:00.100 Well, peak hour ridership would be the objective here. 00:24:00.100 --> 00:24:01.850 And then the measure that you would define 00:24:01.850 --> 00:24:06.170 would be peak hour ridership per weekday per month. 00:24:06.170 --> 00:24:16.310 And then the standard that you want to define 00:24:16.310 --> 00:24:22.670 would be something that not only captures 00:24:22.670 --> 00:24:26.090 the demand side, but also the supply of the system, too. 00:24:26.090 --> 00:24:30.445 So you would come up with probably, like-- 00:24:30.445 --> 00:24:31.070 I would, like-- 00:24:31.070 --> 00:24:32.320 AUDIENCE: Riders per vehicle-- 00:24:32.320 --> 00:24:35.570 riders per mile-- per hour. 00:24:35.570 --> 00:24:36.840 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, exactly. 00:24:36.840 --> 00:24:41.210 Or let's say, like, 60% of capacity. 00:24:41.210 --> 00:24:47.160 Like, your standard in this case would 00:24:47.160 --> 00:24:54.010 be your peak hour ridership should be greater than 60% 00:24:54.010 --> 00:24:57.020 of capacity. 00:24:57.020 --> 00:24:58.590 So this was just an example that we 00:24:58.590 --> 00:25:03.150 tried to work out one practice for evaluation structure. 00:25:03.150 --> 00:25:05.430 But let me give you another example that is actually 00:25:05.430 --> 00:25:10.030 used in the practice. 00:25:12.980 --> 00:25:14.900 So assume that we are considering 00:25:14.900 --> 00:25:20.250 the goal of reliability in the transit system. 00:25:20.250 --> 00:25:25.130 The goal of reliability would be considered 00:25:25.130 --> 00:25:32.570 one of the main goals because if we 00:25:32.570 --> 00:25:37.850 have a reliable public transport system, you can secure 00:25:37.850 --> 00:25:42.140 and you can guarantee a body of demand 00:25:42.140 --> 00:25:46.970 in your network that can rely on your transit system 00:25:46.970 --> 00:25:56.740 and basically adapt to the lifestyle of using 00:25:56.740 --> 00:25:57.830 public transport. 00:25:57.830 --> 00:26:03.160 And that's beneficial to the system 00:26:03.160 --> 00:26:07.160 from different perspectives. 00:26:07.160 --> 00:26:10.450 So the objective that we can define 00:26:10.450 --> 00:26:15.712 for reliability in this case would be possibly-- 00:26:15.712 --> 00:26:17.170 can you come up with some objective 00:26:17.170 --> 00:26:22.210 that we can define with the goal of improving reliability? 00:26:22.210 --> 00:26:23.650 AUDIENCE: On-time performance. 00:26:23.650 --> 00:26:25.275 NEEMA NASSIR: On-time performance, yes. 00:26:30.340 --> 00:26:34.940 So on-time performance would be the objective. 00:26:34.940 --> 00:26:38.850 And then we need to define a measure for this 00:26:38.850 --> 00:26:42.690 to be able to measure that objective 00:26:42.690 --> 00:26:46.680 for each one of the scenarios and for each one 00:26:46.680 --> 00:26:50.440 of the alternative plans. 00:26:50.440 --> 00:26:55.112 So what would be a measure for on-time performance? 00:26:55.112 --> 00:27:01.407 AUDIENCE: Characterizing with our car driving [INAUDIBLE] 00:27:01.407 --> 00:27:02.740 within a certain amount of time. 00:27:02.740 --> 00:27:03.823 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yeah. 00:27:03.823 --> 00:27:10.680 So let's say percentage of on-time arrivals. 00:27:13.660 --> 00:27:17.130 So we would say percentage of on-time arrivals, 00:27:17.130 --> 00:27:19.470 and we would define on-time arrivals 00:27:19.470 --> 00:27:24.470 to be between 0 and 5 minutes of the schedule. 00:27:27.770 --> 00:27:31.900 And then the standard that many of the agencies 00:27:31.900 --> 00:27:39.400 use to measure this would be 90% or 95%, basically. 00:27:46.010 --> 00:27:52.020 So this way, the transit agency can 00:27:52.020 --> 00:27:57.330 go ahead and evaluate the performance of the operators 00:27:57.330 --> 00:28:00.810 of the system who basically are running 00:28:00.810 --> 00:28:04.260 some part of the service and come back to them 00:28:04.260 --> 00:28:08.550 and say, OK, your performance in terms of reliability 00:28:08.550 --> 00:28:10.220 has been acceptable or not. 00:28:10.220 --> 00:28:10.720 Please. 00:28:10.720 --> 00:28:15.753 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] something [INAUDIBLE].. 00:28:15.753 --> 00:28:22.891 Or would it be just standard operating procdedure 00:28:22.891 --> 00:28:24.655 they were planning as well. 00:28:24.655 --> 00:28:27.450 And their reliability was somewhere around 80%, 00:28:27.450 --> 00:28:30.127 and now the goal is to achieve a 10% gain. 00:28:30.127 --> 00:28:30.960 NEEMA NASSIR: Mm-hm. 00:28:30.960 --> 00:28:33.460 AUDIENCE: And comparing that with the previous one would 00:28:33.460 --> 00:28:34.774 be a benchmark again. 00:28:34.774 --> 00:28:35.940 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, exactly. 00:28:35.940 --> 00:28:41.610 So another measure would be percentage improvements as 00:28:41.610 --> 00:28:43.320 compared to baseline. 00:28:43.320 --> 00:28:46.790 And then the transit agency can define a standard 00:28:46.790 --> 00:28:50.160 of at least 10% improvement to the baseline 00:28:50.160 --> 00:28:53.130 should be required for reliability. 00:28:53.130 --> 00:28:54.840 Yep, thank you. 00:28:54.840 --> 00:29:04.290 So then one other interesting point 00:29:04.290 --> 00:29:07.620 that actually comes to mind looking at the existing 00:29:07.620 --> 00:29:10.860 guidelines is that on-time arrivals are usually 00:29:10.860 --> 00:29:13.980 defined for 0 to 5. 00:29:13.980 --> 00:29:17.220 That basically means that you consider 00:29:17.220 --> 00:29:21.290 a bus that is late by two minutes to be on time. 00:29:21.290 --> 00:29:23.520 But a bus that is early by one minute 00:29:23.520 --> 00:29:25.360 is not considered to be on time. 00:29:25.360 --> 00:29:30.990 Does anyone have any comments about this-- 00:29:30.990 --> 00:29:34.550 why we do not consider early arrivals on time? 00:29:34.550 --> 00:29:37.612 AUDIENCE: I think misconnections for people 00:29:37.612 --> 00:29:39.877 who expected to be there at a certain time, but-- 00:29:39.877 --> 00:29:40.960 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yeah. 00:29:40.960 --> 00:29:41.820 AUDIENCE: --they left. 00:29:41.820 --> 00:29:42.330 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, yeah. 00:29:42.330 --> 00:29:43.663 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] connected. 00:29:43.663 --> 00:29:45.040 NEEMA NASSIR: So it can be proved 00:29:45.040 --> 00:29:51.330 that based on typical assumptions about passenger 00:29:51.330 --> 00:29:57.120 arrivals, early arrivals of buses and service 00:29:57.120 --> 00:30:02.000 is usually more negative as later arrivals. 00:30:02.000 --> 00:30:03.540 Let's make an example here. 00:30:03.540 --> 00:30:09.960 For example, let's assume under uniform arrivals 00:30:09.960 --> 00:30:11.490 of passengers-- 00:30:11.490 --> 00:30:14.070 let's assume if this is my scheduled 00:30:14.070 --> 00:30:17.790 arrivals over the axis of time and this 00:30:17.790 --> 00:30:24.480 is my number of passengers waiting in the bus stop 00:30:24.480 --> 00:30:30.900 under uniform arrivals, [INAUDIBLE] 00:30:30.900 --> 00:30:35.520 you have some accumulation of passengers 00:30:35.520 --> 00:30:36.810 that are waiting at the stop. 00:30:42.880 --> 00:30:48.370 And then what happens is that if one of these buses are early-- 00:30:48.370 --> 00:30:53.120 let's say it basically arrives at this time-- 00:30:53.120 --> 00:30:55.350 what happens is that the amount of time 00:30:55.350 --> 00:30:59.500 that we are saving due to this arrival 00:30:59.500 --> 00:31:03.670 is basically less than the amount of time that 00:31:03.670 --> 00:31:09.700 will be added to our waiting time for the next trip. 00:31:09.700 --> 00:31:12.200 And that's because the number of people who are experiencing 00:31:12.200 --> 00:31:15.140 this is a little higher-- 00:31:15.140 --> 00:31:17.080 number of people that experience it, 00:31:17.080 --> 00:31:21.110 saying, the additional waiting time 00:31:21.110 --> 00:31:23.300 is higher than number of people who are 00:31:23.300 --> 00:31:27.410 experiencing the early arrival. 00:31:27.410 --> 00:31:29.960 And it cuts to their waiting time. 00:31:29.960 --> 00:31:39.130 So if you compare these two areas, that basically tells you 00:31:39.130 --> 00:31:42.240 you're basically having a loss or having 00:31:42.240 --> 00:31:46.360 an increase in waiting time if your service is early. 00:31:46.360 --> 00:31:49.210 And then the situation becomes worse-- 00:31:49.210 --> 00:31:52.920 indicates that you suggested-- when people are coordinating 00:31:52.920 --> 00:31:54.550 with the system-- 00:31:54.550 --> 00:31:57.240 for example, it is assumed that-- 00:31:57.240 --> 00:32:02.340 and it can actually be proven by looking at the data, too-- 00:32:02.340 --> 00:32:06.420 people make the transition to coordinated behavior 00:32:06.420 --> 00:32:10.740 and coordination with the schedule as the frequency 00:32:10.740 --> 00:32:13.110 of service increases. 00:32:13.110 --> 00:32:17.640 For example, for a service that is scheduled 00:32:17.640 --> 00:32:22.380 to be delivered every half hour or every one hour, 00:32:22.380 --> 00:32:24.810 it is expected that passengers are 00:32:24.810 --> 00:32:28.995 coordinating with the system and coordinating 00:32:28.995 --> 00:32:34.500 their arrivals with the departure of the buses. 00:32:34.500 --> 00:32:39.450 But when it comes to more frequent service, 00:32:39.450 --> 00:32:45.537 then we will have more uniform arrivals. 00:32:45.537 --> 00:32:47.120 So in that case, what we would observe 00:32:47.120 --> 00:32:49.490 is that passengers arrivals would resemble something 00:32:49.490 --> 00:32:50.175 like this. 00:32:55.400 --> 00:33:01.390 Well, it has to go up to here, the original case. 00:33:01.390 --> 00:33:07.690 And then in that case if your service early by five 00:33:07.690 --> 00:33:13.150 or 10 minutes, you will have the main bulk of your passengers 00:33:13.150 --> 00:33:17.500 who need to wait another headway, basically. 00:33:17.500 --> 00:33:21.820 So this should be actually added to your computation, too. 00:33:24.114 --> 00:33:25.530 Is there any questions about this? 00:33:34.660 --> 00:33:43.150 So in terms of the advantage of guidelines in transit planning, 00:33:43.150 --> 00:33:46.230 one of the main purposes of these guidelines 00:33:46.230 --> 00:33:48.930 is to communicate to the public the rationale 00:33:48.930 --> 00:33:51.510 and the logic behind your decision-making 00:33:51.510 --> 00:33:54.990 and behind your allocation of resources to the system. 00:33:54.990 --> 00:33:58.470 It also gives you a consistent and fair basis 00:33:58.470 --> 00:34:00.360 for decision-making. 00:34:00.360 --> 00:34:07.260 And it is somehow gives you a tool to justify your decisions 00:34:07.260 --> 00:34:10.320 and also a tool to make sure that your decisions are 00:34:10.320 --> 00:34:13.830 fair and justified in nature. 00:34:13.830 --> 00:34:16.949 It also gives you the opportunity 00:34:16.949 --> 00:34:22.080 to balance the improvement and the investments to the network 00:34:22.080 --> 00:34:26.040 and gain a uniform level of service improvement 00:34:26.040 --> 00:34:29.620 for efficient service. 00:34:29.620 --> 00:34:34.030 So the guidelines that are existing in the literature 00:34:34.030 --> 00:34:37.570 and in the practice, basically-- in the state of practice-- 00:34:37.570 --> 00:34:42.940 are dealing with the design of service 00:34:42.940 --> 00:34:44.860 and with the delivery of service. 00:34:44.860 --> 00:34:49.360 So the design of service basically dealing 00:34:49.360 --> 00:34:54.489 with variables that are related to spacing 00:34:54.489 --> 00:34:58.360 and density of stops, spacing and density of trips, 00:34:58.360 --> 00:35:02.410 and frequency of the service as it is designed and as it 00:35:02.410 --> 00:35:03.830 is in the schedule. 00:35:03.830 --> 00:35:05.500 So there are guidelines related to that. 00:35:05.500 --> 00:35:09.160 And there is also guidelines related to how you deliver 00:35:09.160 --> 00:35:12.820 or how the transit agency delivers the design service 00:35:12.820 --> 00:35:18.340 and how the performance actually took place. 00:35:18.340 --> 00:35:24.570 So the main factors of service design and service quality 00:35:24.570 --> 00:35:28.590 from the passenger's perspective are basically 00:35:28.590 --> 00:35:31.620 reported by transit capacity and quality 00:35:31.620 --> 00:35:38.340 of service manual of the Transportation Research Board. 00:35:38.340 --> 00:35:45.360 And it basically includes frequency of the service as one 00:35:45.360 --> 00:35:51.090 of the main aspects or factors that are defining 00:35:51.090 --> 00:35:52.410 the quality of service-- 00:35:52.410 --> 00:35:55.050 waiting time, reliability, and access. 00:35:55.050 --> 00:35:59.130 This is access over time and also access over space. 00:35:59.130 --> 00:36:02.970 So why do we again have both frequency and waiting 00:36:02.970 --> 00:36:04.990 time in here? 00:36:04.990 --> 00:36:11.340 So if frequency and waiting time are kind of interrelated, 00:36:11.340 --> 00:36:17.460 how come there are two separate items here on the list here? 00:36:17.460 --> 00:36:20.070 Does anyone have any suggestions about this? 00:36:31.860 --> 00:36:37.990 So let me go ahead and explain how I understand this. 00:36:37.990 --> 00:36:43.600 Frequency of the service is important not only 00:36:43.600 --> 00:36:45.550 in terms of the waiting time-- 00:36:45.550 --> 00:36:47.500 that could be associated with that-- 00:36:47.500 --> 00:36:52.041 but also when it comes to lower frequency system and longer 00:36:52.041 --> 00:36:52.540 headways. 00:36:55.310 --> 00:36:58.360 The waiting time is not a function of frequency anymore. 00:36:58.360 --> 00:37:04.010 It basically, as we discussed, the waiting time 00:37:04.010 --> 00:37:08.450 could actually be independent of frequency. 00:37:08.450 --> 00:37:12.280 However, in those cases, there is a burden of coordination 00:37:12.280 --> 00:37:14.900 that is imposed to the passenger. 00:37:14.900 --> 00:37:19.060 So if you have to coordinate your arrival, for example, 00:37:19.060 --> 00:37:21.280 in the morning from home to work, 00:37:21.280 --> 00:37:24.190 then there is some sort of inconvenience 00:37:24.190 --> 00:37:29.740 that is imposed to you to basically make it 00:37:29.740 --> 00:37:32.980 to your coordinated schedule. 00:37:32.980 --> 00:37:34.930 And then waiting time is also important 00:37:34.930 --> 00:37:41.100 because if the service is frequent 00:37:41.100 --> 00:37:45.640 but at different ranges of frequency, 00:37:45.640 --> 00:37:47.800 you may experience different waiting time 00:37:47.800 --> 00:37:51.830 if the process of arrivals of passenger 00:37:51.830 --> 00:37:55.060 is assumed to be a random process. 00:37:55.060 --> 00:37:57.340 Then reliability as we discussed is 00:37:57.340 --> 00:38:00.940 one of the important features and one 00:38:00.940 --> 00:38:04.350 of the important aspects of the service. 00:38:04.350 --> 00:38:08.230 It usually is a measure based on on-time arrivals 00:38:08.230 --> 00:38:09.430 of the service. 00:38:09.430 --> 00:38:16.340 And then the next aspect that is important 00:38:16.340 --> 00:38:20.630 is access to origins and destinations. 00:38:20.630 --> 00:38:24.560 This access can be interpreted in two ways. 00:38:24.560 --> 00:38:27.820 We can look at access in terms of space and in terms of time. 00:38:27.820 --> 00:38:32.290 Access in terms of space is closeness to the bus stops 00:38:32.290 --> 00:38:36.490 and closeness to the service from origin 00:38:36.490 --> 00:38:37.930 and from the destination. 00:38:37.930 --> 00:38:40.810 Access in terms of time would be the span of service-- 00:38:40.810 --> 00:38:43.000 when you like to travel-- 00:38:43.000 --> 00:38:45.125 and basically, what is the service time 00:38:45.125 --> 00:38:48.115 and available times of service. 00:38:51.260 --> 00:38:53.390 So yeah, as I mentioned, most agencies 00:38:53.390 --> 00:38:56.000 have guidelines covering a span of service. 00:38:56.000 --> 00:39:01.250 For example, MBTA has this guideline 00:39:01.250 --> 00:39:07.850 that for weekdays, you need to have service from all suburbs 00:39:07.850 --> 00:39:13.130 into the CBD area with-- 00:39:13.130 --> 00:39:16.910 at least, like, at latest, arrives at 7:00 AM. 00:39:16.910 --> 00:39:21.620 So you need to basically be able to cover between 7:00 00:39:21.620 --> 00:39:28.760 AM and 6:00 PM as your services span in MBTA. 00:39:28.760 --> 00:39:33.080 For TransLink, it's also somehow the same. 00:39:33.080 --> 00:39:35.750 You need to-- basically, minimum service guidelines 00:39:35.750 --> 00:39:38.810 to ensure that 95% of trips listed 00:39:38.810 --> 00:39:43.620 can be completed in the time span given below. 00:39:43.620 --> 00:39:47.210 Like, from any point to downtown Vancouver, 00:39:47.210 --> 00:39:51.980 you need to have service that can actually 00:39:51.980 --> 00:39:54.170 arrive in downtown Vancouver by 7:00 00:39:54.170 --> 00:39:59.090 AM, for people who should start their work at 7:00 AM. 00:39:59.090 --> 00:40:03.890 And then there's also trips in the evening. 00:40:03.890 --> 00:40:09.110 And it basically says earliest departure time of mass transit 00:40:09.110 --> 00:40:11.840 trip in the evening from downtown Vancouver 00:40:11.840 --> 00:40:15.320 to any town center needs to be midnight for people 00:40:15.320 --> 00:40:17.540 who basically would like to enjoy 00:40:17.540 --> 00:40:21.090 the nightlife in the downtown area 00:40:21.090 --> 00:40:23.180 and then use transit to go back home. 00:40:26.560 --> 00:40:29.740 So in terms of route design and in terms 00:40:29.740 --> 00:40:34.480 of layout of routes and stops, there 00:40:34.480 --> 00:40:38.290 are also guidelines that are addressing this decision. 00:40:38.290 --> 00:40:41.410 MBTA has a policy objective to provide transit service 00:40:41.410 --> 00:40:45.070 within walking distance, which is defined a quarter 00:40:45.070 --> 00:40:48.760 mile of all residents that are living in area with population 00:40:48.760 --> 00:40:53.230 densities greater than 5,000 people per square mile. 00:40:53.230 --> 00:40:58.150 That's basically an interesting guideline. 00:40:58.150 --> 00:41:00.860 It considers two different variables. 00:41:00.860 --> 00:41:02.530 One is the population density. 00:41:02.530 --> 00:41:07.420 And the other one is the density of the stops or vicinity 00:41:07.420 --> 00:41:12.850 or walkability of transit in areas 00:41:12.850 --> 00:41:17.290 that are populated with densities greater than 5,000 00:41:17.290 --> 00:41:20.440 per square mile. 00:41:20.440 --> 00:41:25.530 So in terms of comprehensiveness objective, 00:41:25.530 --> 00:41:30.030 TransLink basically has very comprehensive guidelines 00:41:30.030 --> 00:41:36.900 related to basically a set of different performance measures 00:41:36.900 --> 00:41:38.590 and goals. 00:41:38.590 --> 00:41:43.260 Let me read from these. 00:41:43.260 --> 00:41:46.410 At least 90% of our residents and employees 00:41:46.410 --> 00:41:48.120 in urbanized development areas should 00:41:48.120 --> 00:41:52.500 have a walk less than 450 meters to a bus stop. 00:41:52.500 --> 00:41:57.420 So this is related to access over space. 00:41:57.420 --> 00:41:58.275 98%-- 00:41:58.275 --> 00:42:01.350 AUDIENCE: When they say 90% of residents and employees, 00:42:01.350 --> 00:42:05.010 basically they're looking at that person twice. 00:42:05.010 --> 00:42:07.150 The person is on one end, a resident, 00:42:07.150 --> 00:42:08.640 and on the other end, an employee. 00:42:08.640 --> 00:42:10.200 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yes. 00:42:10.200 --> 00:42:11.235 AUDIENCE: So it's-- OK. 00:42:11.235 --> 00:42:15.740 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, you want to consider both ends of the trip, 00:42:15.740 --> 00:42:16.380 right? 00:42:16.380 --> 00:42:19.110 And these percentages are a little tricky. 00:42:19.110 --> 00:42:21.540 Sometimes they're counting the number of people-- number 00:42:21.540 --> 00:42:22.170 of residents. 00:42:22.170 --> 00:42:25.200 Sometimes they're counting OD pairs. 00:42:25.200 --> 00:42:27.180 Sometimes they're counting passengers. 00:42:27.180 --> 00:42:33.270 So it's a little tricky to interpret these correctly. 00:42:33.270 --> 00:42:37.350 So the second one basically says 98% of all peak period transit 00:42:37.350 --> 00:42:39.720 trips to and from downtown Vancouver 00:42:39.720 --> 00:42:43.560 should require no more than one transfer. 00:42:43.560 --> 00:42:48.930 That basically is 98% of people who are traveling from 00:42:48.930 --> 00:42:51.430 and to downtown to the suburbs. 00:42:51.430 --> 00:42:55.800 And so it may be a little difficult, especially 00:42:55.800 --> 00:42:59.700 in the absence of AFC data-- 00:42:59.700 --> 00:43:02.610 Automated Fare Collection system data. 00:43:02.610 --> 00:43:08.270 It can be a little tricky to measure these objectives. 00:43:08.270 --> 00:43:10.890 What's usually done, basically, is 00:43:10.890 --> 00:43:16.980 people go out and basically ask from transit riders 00:43:16.980 --> 00:43:18.720 about their origins and destinations. 00:43:18.720 --> 00:43:21.510 It's called Public Transit Origin Destination Survey 00:43:21.510 --> 00:43:23.530 that is usually done on board. 00:43:23.530 --> 00:43:24.874 Do you have a question? 00:43:24.874 --> 00:43:25.374 OK. 00:43:28.330 --> 00:43:31.600 So the second measure here relates 00:43:31.600 --> 00:43:34.820 to connectivity in the network. 00:43:34.820 --> 00:43:38.290 The third one is 95% of all peak period 00:43:38.290 --> 00:43:40.990 transit trips to the nearest town centers 00:43:40.990 --> 00:43:42.980 should require no more than one transfer. 00:43:42.980 --> 00:43:47.630 Again, this one is also related to connectivity of the network. 00:43:47.630 --> 00:43:51.670 And fourth one is all trips between one town center 00:43:51.670 --> 00:43:55.270 and adjacent town centers should require no transfers. 00:43:55.270 --> 00:43:59.530 Again, this one is a guideline on connectivity. 00:43:59.530 --> 00:44:04.390 And then again, the last one is also on connectivity. 00:44:04.390 --> 00:44:09.160 It basically requires that 95% of all peak period transit 00:44:09.160 --> 00:44:13.300 trips to major regional activity centers and gateways 00:44:13.300 --> 00:44:15.820 should require no more than two transfers. 00:44:19.090 --> 00:44:20.940 OK, so any questions or comments about this? 00:44:20.940 --> 00:44:21.120 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:44:21.120 --> 00:44:21.911 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah. 00:44:21.911 --> 00:44:24.370 AUDIENCE: In terms of one connectivity between one town 00:44:24.370 --> 00:44:28.290 center and adjacent town center, definition of a town 00:44:28.290 --> 00:44:29.550 varies from place to place. 00:44:29.550 --> 00:44:29.960 NEEMA NASSIR: Mm-hm. 00:44:29.960 --> 00:44:31.830 AUDIENCE: I know that specifically Vancouver 00:44:31.830 --> 00:44:34.770 has rather large suburbs-- 00:44:34.770 --> 00:44:36.240 like, suburbs of 100,000 people-- 00:44:36.240 --> 00:44:37.230 200,000 people. 00:44:37.230 --> 00:44:41.770 So you actually have a few municipal entities 00:44:41.770 --> 00:44:42.479 for a large area. 00:44:42.479 --> 00:44:43.311 NEEMA NASSIR: Mm-hm. 00:44:43.311 --> 00:44:46.110 AUDIENCE: But you can have areas where that condition would 00:44:46.110 --> 00:44:48.900 be a little bit too strict if you have, let's say, 00:44:48.900 --> 00:44:51.030 the Boston area, which is generally 00:44:51.030 --> 00:44:53.760 slightly smaller suburbs and more suburbs to connect. 00:44:53.760 --> 00:44:55.500 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yeah. 00:44:55.500 --> 00:44:58.380 So some of these may actually be a little tricky 00:44:58.380 --> 00:45:00.765 to measure and to quantify. 00:45:00.765 --> 00:45:01.490 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:45:01.490 --> 00:45:02.656 And they're able to compare. 00:45:02.656 --> 00:45:03.660 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:45:03.660 --> 00:45:06.680 AUDIENCE: Yeah, when I see these numbers, then I 00:45:06.680 --> 00:45:11.592 try to think about equity, and, like, the 10% that is not 450-- 00:45:11.592 --> 00:45:12.425 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:45:12.425 --> 00:45:13.360 AUDIENCE: --is it from that or-- 00:45:13.360 --> 00:45:13.910 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah. 00:45:13.910 --> 00:45:14.400 AUDIENCE: --a bus station-- 00:45:14.400 --> 00:45:14.730 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:45:14.730 --> 00:45:15.630 AUDIENCE: --[INAUDIBLE] the 5% . 00:45:15.630 --> 00:45:16.464 NEEMA NASSIR: Mm-hm. 00:45:16.464 --> 00:45:18.880 AUDIENCE: So how do you navigate these types of trade-offs 00:45:18.880 --> 00:45:21.565 in the face of equity. 00:45:21.565 --> 00:45:22.690 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:45:22.690 --> 00:45:24.910 This is a really good point. 00:45:24.910 --> 00:45:27.220 Some of these percentages, I think, 00:45:27.220 --> 00:45:31.180 are related to random variables. 00:45:31.180 --> 00:45:34.360 And those are somehow acceptable because that's 00:45:34.360 --> 00:45:37.570 when you try to define a confidence interval. 00:45:37.570 --> 00:45:41.170 But when it comes to cases like this, 00:45:41.170 --> 00:45:43.490 it is not a random variable anymore. 00:45:43.490 --> 00:45:50.470 It's basically like a special variable that constantly 00:45:50.470 --> 00:45:55.270 requires a certain amount of connections to the downtown 00:45:55.270 --> 00:45:56.380 area, right? 00:45:56.380 --> 00:46:00.760 So that may be one of the loopholes of this guideline. 00:46:00.760 --> 00:46:04.490 That's a really good point because one 00:46:04.490 --> 00:46:08.440 may argue that if 95% of my OD pairs 00:46:08.440 --> 00:46:12.160 are connected with the minimum connectivity requirement, 00:46:12.160 --> 00:46:14.230 what about the rest of 5%? 00:46:14.230 --> 00:46:18.160 Does it mean that all people who live in that 5% area 00:46:18.160 --> 00:46:23.950 will have to go through the unacceptable connectivity 00:46:23.950 --> 00:46:25.360 situation? 00:46:25.360 --> 00:46:26.530 So that's a valid point. 00:46:26.530 --> 00:46:28.450 And thank you for bringing that up. 00:46:28.450 --> 00:46:30.910 AUDIENCE: Does Vancouver actually achieve these goals? 00:46:30.910 --> 00:46:34.814 It seems kind of implausible-- kind of difficult to-- 00:46:34.814 --> 00:46:35.790 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:46:35.790 --> 00:46:36.936 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 00:46:36.936 --> 00:46:41.790 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, well, these are basically usually 00:46:41.790 --> 00:46:47.160 for projects and plans that are being proposed 00:46:47.160 --> 00:46:50.190 for-- or like small start projects 00:46:50.190 --> 00:46:53.470 or for improvement plans. 00:46:53.470 --> 00:46:57.120 So I think what they try to do is to make sure 00:46:57.120 --> 00:47:01.740 that the ones that are being accepted and being implemented 00:47:01.740 --> 00:47:03.330 would satisfy this. 00:47:03.330 --> 00:47:06.960 But I'm not really sure if the existing network satisfy 00:47:06.960 --> 00:47:08.370 all these conditions or not. 00:47:08.370 --> 00:47:09.407 AUDIENCE: Yes. 00:47:09.407 --> 00:47:11.502 AUDIENCE: Sorry, is TransLink the name 00:47:11.502 --> 00:47:12.710 of the agency that runs the-- 00:47:12.710 --> 00:47:13.850 NEEMA NASSIR: Yes, right. 00:47:13.850 --> 00:47:16.800 Yeah, right. 00:47:16.800 --> 00:47:19.680 OK, so any other questions? 00:47:19.680 --> 00:47:20.660 All right. 00:47:26.550 --> 00:47:31.300 So then TransLink guideline on route design 00:47:31.300 --> 00:47:32.520 is very interesting, too. 00:47:32.520 --> 00:47:35.880 They have really interesting logic 00:47:35.880 --> 00:47:40.770 to validate the design and the improvements that 00:47:40.770 --> 00:47:43.290 are proposed for route design. 00:47:43.290 --> 00:47:46.710 So what it says is that deviations from the most direct 00:47:46.710 --> 00:47:50.760 route must have walking time savings for customers 00:47:50.760 --> 00:47:52.560 on the added route section greater 00:47:52.560 --> 00:47:55.590 than the increase in total travel time 00:47:55.590 --> 00:47:57.120 for through passengers. 00:47:57.120 --> 00:48:03.820 So does anyone have any interpretation-- 00:48:03.820 --> 00:48:08.455 quick interpretation-- on this guideline? 00:48:08.455 --> 00:48:11.800 AUDIENCE: The only reason is [INAUDIBLE] a major destination 00:48:11.800 --> 00:48:14.710 where people [INAUDIBLE] or otherwise people 00:48:14.710 --> 00:48:20.500 are going straight and what [INAUDIBLE] people on buses. 00:48:20.500 --> 00:48:22.940 So the second to the last stop on the route, 00:48:22.940 --> 00:48:24.800 may be you make that deviation to have 00:48:24.800 --> 00:48:26.890 people on the bus [INAUDIBLE] traffic [INAUDIBLE] 00:48:26.890 --> 00:48:27.760 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:48:27.760 --> 00:48:28.760 Yeah. 00:48:28.760 --> 00:48:29.340 Right. 00:48:29.340 --> 00:48:30.339 You have a comment, too? 00:48:30.339 --> 00:48:31.876 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 00:48:31.876 --> 00:48:33.440 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yeah. 00:48:33.440 --> 00:48:39.110 So if you look at the problem or look at the situation 00:48:39.110 --> 00:48:41.630 from the perspective of system and from the perspective 00:48:41.630 --> 00:48:45.860 of total travel time in the system, what they basically 00:48:45.860 --> 00:48:48.590 are requiring is that, for example, 00:48:48.590 --> 00:48:51.260 let's assume that I have a suburb here. 00:48:51.260 --> 00:48:53.330 And then this is my downtown area. 00:48:53.330 --> 00:48:56.810 And there is a route here that has multiple stops. 00:48:56.810 --> 00:48:59.600 And then there's another suburb here, 00:48:59.600 --> 00:49:03.350 which, in the original plan is being served by this route. 00:49:03.350 --> 00:49:08.990 However, it requires a walking link to different stops. 00:49:08.990 --> 00:49:14.090 What this guideline basically requires is that if the total 00:49:14.090 --> 00:49:18.050 travel time for all passengers for traveling from here to here 00:49:18.050 --> 00:49:21.770 and for all that are traveling from here to here is going 00:49:21.770 --> 00:49:29.870 to be increased, then you cannot justify an additional detour 00:49:29.870 --> 00:49:34.670 here to serve this area, meaning that if the total travel time 00:49:34.670 --> 00:49:41.930 saving that is done on the walking time of these people is 00:49:41.930 --> 00:49:45.890 not as much as total increase in travel time of people that are 00:49:45.890 --> 00:49:49.440 traveling from this suburb to this suburb, 00:49:49.440 --> 00:49:53.160 then you cannot justify the design or the re-route. 00:50:00.150 --> 00:50:03.810 So in terms of guidelines related 00:50:03.810 --> 00:50:07.050 to a schedule and guidelines related to frequency 00:50:07.050 --> 00:50:11.070 and timetable, we basically, in practice there 00:50:11.070 --> 00:50:14.790 are two main components-- component 00:50:14.790 --> 00:50:20.220 that is related to the policy of design and components 00:50:20.220 --> 00:50:22.260 that is related to the crowding situation. 00:50:22.260 --> 00:50:26.190 Policy of design basically dictate a minimum headway 00:50:26.190 --> 00:50:30.300 or basically a minimal frequency or maximum 00:50:30.300 --> 00:50:33.510 headway for the service. 00:50:33.510 --> 00:50:36.940 And that's basically the case when 00:50:36.940 --> 00:50:38.670 there is no crowding situation. 00:50:41.590 --> 00:50:44.640 However, in the main corridors and in peak directions, 00:50:44.640 --> 00:50:50.400 we usually would go beyond the service of policy headway 00:50:50.400 --> 00:50:54.780 because we need to accommodate the demand. 00:50:54.780 --> 00:51:02.070 And that's basically how the maximum passenger crowding 00:51:02.070 --> 00:51:03.830 guides come into play. 00:51:06.510 --> 00:51:13.890 So in terms of the actual guideline on policy of headway 00:51:13.890 --> 00:51:16.530 for MBTA, we have maximum headway 00:51:16.530 --> 00:51:19.710 on all local bus routes should be 30 minutes in peak 00:51:19.710 --> 00:51:21.360 and 60 minutes at other times. 00:51:21.360 --> 00:51:23.880 For express routes, there should be at least three trips 00:51:23.880 --> 00:51:24.820 in each peak period. 00:51:27.880 --> 00:51:31.720 So let's discuss a little bit more about this. 00:51:31.720 --> 00:51:35.340 Why do you think that we need to have a policy headway-- 00:51:35.340 --> 00:51:37.000 maximum policy headway? 00:51:39.800 --> 00:51:43.610 If we are considering the demand and we 00:51:43.610 --> 00:51:47.900 are trying to satisfy the demand by number of vehicles 00:51:47.900 --> 00:51:52.130 that we are assigning to the route, 00:51:52.130 --> 00:51:54.541 then why should we care about a minimum? 00:51:54.541 --> 00:51:55.040 Do you-- 00:51:55.040 --> 00:51:59.315 AUDIENCE: Because if the demand is really low, 00:51:59.315 --> 00:52:01.729 that person-- you can't make him wait forever. 00:52:01.729 --> 00:52:02.520 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah. 00:52:02.520 --> 00:52:03.765 AUDIENCE: You'll have to serve him equitably. 00:52:03.765 --> 00:52:05.280 NEEMA NASSIR: Exactly, yeah. 00:52:05.280 --> 00:52:09.775 Again, the equity issue and the accessibility issue, basically. 00:52:09.775 --> 00:52:11.400 AUDIENCE: And there are also, you know, 00:52:11.400 --> 00:52:14.520 still elderly people who don't use smartphones 00:52:14.520 --> 00:52:16.590 to coordinate their arrival at the bus 00:52:16.590 --> 00:52:17.930 stop when the bus is coming. 00:52:17.930 --> 00:52:18.540 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 00:52:18.540 --> 00:52:21.040 AUDIENCE: And you don't want to make them wait indefinitely. 00:52:21.040 --> 00:52:23.050 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, exactly. 00:52:23.050 --> 00:52:25.550 Right. 00:52:25.550 --> 00:52:30.460 OK, and then when it comes to considerations related 00:52:30.460 --> 00:52:32.680 to the crowding, we have guidelines 00:52:32.680 --> 00:52:35.440 about maximum crowding and maximum expectation 00:52:35.440 --> 00:52:40.550 of crowding that would dictate a minimum frequency 00:52:40.550 --> 00:52:41.740 for the service. 00:52:41.740 --> 00:52:46.730 For example, for Green line, the maximum passengers per car 00:52:46.730 --> 00:52:51.950 should be no more than 225% of the seats in the peak period. 00:52:51.950 --> 00:52:54.110 In the off peak, the maximum passengers 00:52:54.110 --> 00:52:56.450 should be no more than the seated capacity, 00:52:56.450 --> 00:53:00.610 except in the central subway, which can go up to 140%. 00:53:03.610 --> 00:53:09.490 Yeah, so here is the TransLink guideline 00:53:09.490 --> 00:53:11.500 on frequency objective. 00:53:11.500 --> 00:53:17.080 It basically defines different headways based on time of days 00:53:17.080 --> 00:53:22.600 and based on modes of transit that the transit agencies 00:53:22.600 --> 00:53:26.005 and operators of the system need to satisfy. 00:53:28.900 --> 00:53:35.850 So in terms of guaranteeing that the load and the crowding 00:53:35.850 --> 00:53:38.940 situation is addressed in the guideline that 00:53:38.940 --> 00:53:44.070 is related to frequency, there is some analysis 00:53:44.070 --> 00:53:51.180 that is done to make sure that your frequency is high enough 00:53:51.180 --> 00:53:54.630 that your crowding situation does not 00:53:54.630 --> 00:53:56.490 exceed a certain level. 00:53:56.490 --> 00:54:00.480 Why do we care about the loads and the crowding situation? 00:54:00.480 --> 00:54:02.820 The first reason is that we do not want 00:54:02.820 --> 00:54:07.740 to frequently deny to board. 00:54:07.740 --> 00:54:10.830 That would yield to increased travel time. 00:54:10.830 --> 00:54:16.170 And we would like to basically avoid higher dwell time that is 00:54:16.170 --> 00:54:19.620 associated with higher number of boardings-- 00:54:19.620 --> 00:54:23.070 alighting number of wheelchairs on board-- 00:54:23.070 --> 00:54:28.800 that would eventually, again, increase the running time. 00:54:28.800 --> 00:54:31.160 For example, in the acceptable-- 00:54:31.160 --> 00:54:36.780 in a regular standard 40-foot bus 00:54:36.780 --> 00:54:40.960 the acceptable load of 70 passengers are considered. 00:54:40.960 --> 00:54:45.330 However, the average that we estimate based on our design 00:54:45.330 --> 00:54:48.300 should not exceed 55 passengers. 00:54:48.300 --> 00:54:50.640 So that's the case of indeterminacy 00:54:50.640 --> 00:54:55.770 and the confidence intervals that we kind of allow 00:54:55.770 --> 00:54:58.300 in the analysis. 00:54:58.300 --> 00:55:00.750 However, it's a little different with the equity issue 00:55:00.750 --> 00:55:05.700 that you mentioned in this case because you want to make sure 00:55:05.700 --> 00:55:09.810 that to a certain degree of confidence 00:55:09.810 --> 00:55:15.130 your system is performing at an acceptable crowding level. 00:55:15.130 --> 00:55:17.760 The variability to demand could actually 00:55:17.760 --> 00:55:22.030 relate to bulk arrivals or group arrivals 00:55:22.030 --> 00:55:27.450 that may happen at once due to exchanges 00:55:27.450 --> 00:55:30.120 from different service. 00:55:30.120 --> 00:55:35.280 Or it could actually relate to the variability in the headway 00:55:35.280 --> 00:55:39.720 or variability in the nature of demand based on day of week, 00:55:39.720 --> 00:55:43.470 based on seasonality, based on the weather condition, 00:55:43.470 --> 00:55:45.810 and so on and so forth. 00:55:45.810 --> 00:55:52.640 Then the other objective in the guideline of TransLink 00:55:52.640 --> 00:55:57.020 is the objective of comfort. 00:55:57.020 --> 00:56:00.440 And it basically deals, again, with the crowding level 00:56:00.440 --> 00:56:04.040 or the design crowding level or crowding averages 00:56:04.040 --> 00:56:09.380 that we are basically computing as objectives to be 00:56:09.380 --> 00:56:11.330 tested for this guideline. 00:56:11.330 --> 00:56:14.390 As you can see again, for different peak 00:56:14.390 --> 00:56:20.950 periods and different type of vehicles and type of service, 00:56:20.950 --> 00:56:27.530 there is published numbers in terms of the averages 00:56:27.530 --> 00:56:36.810 or computed averages for the maximum crowding levels. 00:56:36.810 --> 00:56:40.620 So look at these numbers. 00:56:40.620 --> 00:56:45.510 Does anyone have any idea of why some of these numbers 00:56:45.510 --> 00:56:46.780 are larger? 00:56:46.780 --> 00:56:51.570 For example, for peak 15 minutes in AM and PM peak, 00:56:51.570 --> 00:56:57.600 you would allow an average of 60 passengers on-board. 00:56:57.600 --> 00:57:00.780 However, when it comes to computations of peak 00:57:00.780 --> 00:57:05.327 30 minutes, you would only allow 55. 00:57:05.327 --> 00:57:07.701 AUDIENCE: You don't want people to be left behind because 00:57:07.701 --> 00:57:09.027 of frequency of the services. 00:57:09.027 --> 00:57:13.220 Knowing that there maybe another hour or service 00:57:13.220 --> 00:57:14.456 is another five minutes. 00:57:14.456 --> 00:57:16.440 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yeah, that could 00:57:16.440 --> 00:57:20.340 be one reason that actually yielded to this design. 00:57:20.340 --> 00:57:24.454 Any other thoughts or suggestions? 00:57:24.454 --> 00:57:27.490 AUDIENCE: Yeah, the 15 minute peaking limit 00:57:27.490 --> 00:57:29.407 allows you to have one very full vehicle that 00:57:29.407 --> 00:57:31.198 sort of would skew the averages [INAUDIBLE] 00:57:31.198 --> 00:57:33.929 and could moderate that. 00:57:33.929 --> 00:57:34.720 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah. 00:57:34.720 --> 00:57:35.594 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 00:57:35.594 --> 00:57:38.069 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, exactly. 00:57:38.069 --> 00:57:38.610 Yeah, please. 00:57:38.610 --> 00:57:40.011 AUDIENCE: Is this like-- 00:57:40.011 --> 00:57:42.610 could be, like, a chicken or egg problem 00:57:42.610 --> 00:57:47.020 where the ones the routes were needed with peak 15 minute 00:57:47.020 --> 00:57:50.585 headway are ones that you will expect a lot of people. 00:57:50.585 --> 00:57:53.085 Or is it the other way around where you see a lot of people, 00:57:53.085 --> 00:57:55.810 and then you make it [INAUDIBLE].. 00:57:55.810 --> 00:57:57.160 NEEMA NASSIR: Yes, right. 00:57:57.160 --> 00:58:00.110 Well, yeah, that's exactly one of the considerations 00:58:00.110 --> 00:58:05.590 in design of a frequency and design of a schedule. 00:58:05.590 --> 00:58:10.810 So if I want to reward-- 00:58:10.810 --> 00:58:14.380 what Ari mentioned-- if you're computing your average over 15 00:58:14.380 --> 00:58:18.910 minutes and then you're computing your average over 13 00:58:18.910 --> 00:58:21.950 minutes and you're observing a higher crowding level over 00:58:21.950 --> 00:58:30.730 the accepted level, then if the situation becomes more 00:58:30.730 --> 00:58:32.620 critical-- 00:58:32.620 --> 00:58:36.526 if you're computing over 30 minutes, 00:58:36.526 --> 00:58:37.900 it's more critical than if you're 00:58:37.900 --> 00:58:41.000 computing over 15 minutes. 00:58:41.000 --> 00:58:45.940 So if you observe an average of high crowding 00:58:45.940 --> 00:58:49.750 level for 30 minutes or for a longer period, 00:58:49.750 --> 00:58:53.560 that is a sign of a higher actual average 00:58:53.560 --> 00:58:57.711 of crowding level. 00:58:57.711 --> 00:58:58.210 Yeah. 00:58:58.210 --> 00:58:58.630 AUDIENCE: It's funny. 00:58:58.630 --> 00:59:00.850 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, maybe you explained it better. 00:59:00.850 --> 00:59:02.099 I shouldn't have rewarded you. 00:59:04.640 --> 00:59:08.420 So the other objective that TransLink covers 00:59:08.420 --> 00:59:12.410 is basically the comfort situation. 00:59:12.410 --> 00:59:14.360 This is one of the interesting ones. 00:59:14.360 --> 00:59:15.980 And I do not really know how it's 00:59:15.980 --> 00:59:18.230 possible to measure this for a design. 00:59:18.230 --> 00:59:23.960 It's probably usually being used in evaluation of the existing 00:59:23.960 --> 00:59:24.920 service. 00:59:24.920 --> 00:59:30.020 It basically deals with number of minutes 00:59:30.020 --> 00:59:38.480 that you expect from passengers to be standing-- 00:59:38.480 --> 00:59:42.320 maximum number of minutes of being standing on board. 00:59:42.320 --> 00:59:45.500 And there's a level of compliance 00:59:45.500 --> 00:59:47.250 that is defined for each one. 00:59:47.250 --> 00:59:53.840 For example, you would allow no more than 95% cases 00:59:53.840 --> 01:00:00.140 that passengers would have to stand more than 20 minutes 01:00:00.140 --> 01:00:01.940 on the trip. 01:00:01.940 --> 01:00:05.510 So I can imagine if you have an existing system 01:00:05.510 --> 01:00:09.170 and if you want to measure this, you 01:00:09.170 --> 01:00:13.220 can go out and survey these numbers 01:00:13.220 --> 01:00:18.090 and compute averages and compute the distributions. 01:00:18.090 --> 01:00:24.440 However, if you have a design which is not in place, 01:00:24.440 --> 01:00:25.940 does anyone have any thoughts how 01:00:25.940 --> 01:00:33.406 you can come up with some sort of estimation for this case? 01:00:33.406 --> 01:00:35.354 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 01:00:35.354 --> 01:00:37.760 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, simulation could be 01:00:37.760 --> 01:00:39.970 one possible way of doing this. 01:00:39.970 --> 01:00:48.566 Simulation of demand could be one possible way of doing this. 01:00:48.566 --> 01:00:52.570 AUDIENCE: You could check, like, if it's a train-- 01:00:52.570 --> 01:00:57.850 I saw the Sky Train there, you can see where the train fills 01:00:57.850 --> 01:01:00.280 up and then assume that everyone else-- 01:01:00.280 --> 01:01:02.510 everyone that boards the train afterwards-- 01:01:02.510 --> 01:01:05.147 if you know how many people are boarding-- if you have-- 01:01:05.147 --> 01:01:05.980 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 01:01:05.980 --> 01:01:07.720 AUDIENCE: --data to do that, then you 01:01:07.720 --> 01:01:11.050 can assume that everyone who's boarding after is standing. 01:01:11.050 --> 01:01:15.220 And then you can see how many of them have 20 minutes or more 01:01:15.220 --> 01:01:17.854 left on the journey till the train [INAUDIBLE] 01:01:17.854 --> 01:01:18.770 NEEMA NASSIR: Exactly. 01:01:18.770 --> 01:01:19.600 That's a good idea. 01:01:19.600 --> 01:01:24.220 So what you're suggesting is to generate the load profile 01:01:24.220 --> 01:01:26.500 for the line. 01:01:26.500 --> 01:01:30.610 And whenever the load is over the seating capacity, 01:01:30.610 --> 01:01:33.170 you measure the time period on that. 01:01:33.170 --> 01:01:35.150 So that's a good idea. 01:01:35.150 --> 01:01:36.280 Right. 01:01:36.280 --> 01:01:41.170 So in terms of for Toronto Transit Commission, 01:01:41.170 --> 01:01:44.320 the loading standards is something like this. 01:01:44.320 --> 01:01:46.330 For different types of vehicle, you 01:01:46.330 --> 01:01:50.840 would allow different averages for your design. 01:01:50.840 --> 01:01:55.120 So there is also one interesting point here. 01:01:55.120 --> 01:01:58.330 Why do you think for low frequency service 01:01:58.330 --> 01:02:06.230 you would allow a lower crowding level or a lower average 01:02:06.230 --> 01:02:06.969 ridership? 01:02:10.961 --> 01:02:12.957 AUDIENCE: If it was that crowded, 01:02:12.957 --> 01:02:16.217 you would want to add frequency to better serve people riding. 01:02:16.217 --> 01:02:17.300 NEEMA NASSIR: Right, yeah. 01:02:17.300 --> 01:02:22.670 That could be one good answer. 01:02:22.670 --> 01:02:24.740 The other reason that I can imagine 01:02:24.740 --> 01:02:27.530 is that if it's a low frequency service 01:02:27.530 --> 01:02:30.110 and if someone is denied boarding to a low frequency 01:02:30.110 --> 01:02:32.780 service, they have to wait longer. 01:02:32.780 --> 01:02:37.700 So we would allow a little bit of a slackness in the design, 01:02:37.700 --> 01:02:39.530 so we would avoid a situation like that. 01:02:48.390 --> 01:02:50.560 OK, so let's stop here. 01:02:50.560 --> 01:02:52.720 And then we will continue through the rest 01:02:52.720 --> 01:02:59.620 of the guidelines, particularly with reliability of service 01:02:59.620 --> 01:03:00.220 next week. 01:03:00.220 --> 01:03:01.803 AUDIENCE: So there's a question there? 01:03:01.803 --> 01:03:02.685 NEEMA NASSIR: Right. 01:03:02.685 --> 01:03:03.999 AUDIENCE: I was going to ask is there a reason why we 01:03:03.999 --> 01:03:05.150 use so many Canadian transits? 01:03:05.150 --> 01:03:05.990 NEEMA NASSIR: Sorry? 01:03:05.990 --> 01:03:07.406 AUDIENCE: Is there a reason why we 01:03:07.406 --> 01:03:09.510 use so many Canadian transits? 01:03:09.510 --> 01:03:11.335 NEEMA NASSIR: That's a good question. 01:03:11.335 --> 01:03:13.400 AUDIENCE: Their public transportation is better. 01:03:13.400 --> 01:03:15.430 NEEMA NASSIR: Yeah, better-- probably the closest place 01:03:15.430 --> 01:03:16.720 that has better public transportation. 01:03:16.720 --> 01:03:17.220 [LAUGHTER] 01:03:17.220 --> 01:03:20.670 AUDIENCE: [LAUGHTER]