1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,980 [SQUEAKING] 2 00:00:01,980 --> 00:00:03,465 [RUSTLING] 3 00:00:03,465 --> 00:00:04,950 [CLICKING] 4 00:00:20,540 --> 00:00:23,040 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: So thank you very much for the opportunity 5 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:24,580 of the presentation. 6 00:00:24,580 --> 00:00:26,820 So today, I will be presenting about the Ganges water 7 00:00:26,820 --> 00:00:29,790 conflicts between India and Bangladesh, which is actually 8 00:00:29,790 --> 00:00:31,530 one of the major bone of contents 9 00:00:31,530 --> 00:00:34,060 that's happening between the two neighboring countries. 10 00:00:34,060 --> 00:00:37,590 So I will be speaking about-- 11 00:00:37,590 --> 00:00:41,370 it is basically-- it follows three flows. 12 00:00:41,370 --> 00:00:43,800 The first part, will speak about from where 13 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:44,940 the problem originated. 14 00:00:44,940 --> 00:00:47,280 And the second part will say that-- 15 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:48,750 what is the present condition. 16 00:00:48,750 --> 00:00:50,310 And the third part will be steps, 17 00:00:50,310 --> 00:00:53,310 which I think will be the most relevant part for our class. 18 00:00:53,310 --> 00:00:56,670 That is the water diplomacy part on how we can actually 19 00:00:56,670 --> 00:01:00,940 approach that problem, and how we can try to find a solution. 20 00:01:00,940 --> 00:01:03,930 So let me go to the next slide. 21 00:01:03,930 --> 00:01:06,650 So I would be putting a little bit of disclaimer. 22 00:01:06,650 --> 00:01:08,630 Some part of my discussion might not 23 00:01:08,630 --> 00:01:10,740 match with Bangladesh government's official view. 24 00:01:10,740 --> 00:01:16,670 So I would-- this is important because of years of training-- 25 00:01:16,670 --> 00:01:18,290 because I am not an academic-- 26 00:01:18,290 --> 00:01:21,330 because of years of training, two things happen. 27 00:01:21,330 --> 00:01:23,750 The first one is subconsciously-- 28 00:01:23,750 --> 00:01:26,900 and I have found it even when I've taken classes in Japan 29 00:01:26,900 --> 00:01:28,250 or in the US-- 30 00:01:28,250 --> 00:01:31,760 that's automatically, I actually reflect the views 31 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:33,560 of a typical Bangladeshi bureaucrat, 32 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,230 the particular government's point of view. 33 00:01:36,230 --> 00:01:39,650 It is very-- I had to train myself to stay away 34 00:01:39,650 --> 00:01:42,560 from that view, and try to match with the academic standard, 35 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,380 and come up with as much as objective point of view as 36 00:01:45,380 --> 00:01:45,930 possible. 37 00:01:45,930 --> 00:01:49,430 So here, I would try deliberately, I mean, 38 00:01:49,430 --> 00:01:51,368 not to match the typical stuff that 39 00:01:51,368 --> 00:01:52,910 is said by the Bangladesh government, 40 00:01:52,910 --> 00:01:54,680 or any government too per se. 41 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:56,780 So that is one thing. 42 00:01:56,780 --> 00:01:59,090 And the second part is the political history. 43 00:01:59,090 --> 00:02:02,540 Because although it's a river treaty, 44 00:02:02,540 --> 00:02:05,630 but it is very sensitive both for Bangladesh and India. 45 00:02:05,630 --> 00:02:08,090 And the political history between Bangladesh and India 46 00:02:08,090 --> 00:02:10,710 has a influence in this whole discussion. 47 00:02:10,710 --> 00:02:13,730 So knowingly or unknowingly, sometimes 48 00:02:13,730 --> 00:02:19,650 that political history will visit us in my presentation. 49 00:02:19,650 --> 00:02:24,330 So with these two disclaimers, I'll start my presentation. 50 00:02:24,330 --> 00:02:28,310 So first, a little bit of history and geography. 51 00:02:28,310 --> 00:02:31,670 So you all know about the Indian subcontinent, 52 00:02:31,670 --> 00:02:32,990 that there are many countries. 53 00:02:32,990 --> 00:02:36,140 It was basically under the British rule for 200 years. 54 00:02:36,140 --> 00:02:39,500 And before that, it was 600 years under the Mughals, 55 00:02:39,500 --> 00:02:40,610 or the Muslims. 56 00:02:40,610 --> 00:02:46,370 So before 1947, the leftmost, the huge map that you 57 00:02:46,370 --> 00:02:49,460 see total blue, this is the situation 58 00:02:49,460 --> 00:02:50,990 of Indian subcontinent. 59 00:02:50,990 --> 00:02:55,610 And in 1947, right after the Second World War, 60 00:02:55,610 --> 00:02:58,250 the Indian subcontinent was divided into two. 61 00:02:58,250 --> 00:03:00,470 And that is after the partition in 1947, 62 00:03:00,470 --> 00:03:04,790 you can see the green part still stays the India, 63 00:03:04,790 --> 00:03:06,470 the present day India. 64 00:03:06,470 --> 00:03:10,550 And the orange part, a deep orange part, that is-- 65 00:03:10,550 --> 00:03:12,410 on the upper side, it's West Pakistan. 66 00:03:12,410 --> 00:03:15,230 And on the lower side, this small country, 67 00:03:15,230 --> 00:03:18,600 it's East Pakistan, which is the modern-day Bangladesh. 68 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:26,690 So in 1971, we had a war against the western part of Pakistan. 69 00:03:26,690 --> 00:03:28,070 It was actually very natural. 70 00:03:28,070 --> 00:03:31,590 You see that there is almost 2,000 miles 71 00:03:31,590 --> 00:03:32,690 gap between the two parts. 72 00:03:32,690 --> 00:03:35,010 So it was obvious for many reasons. 73 00:03:35,010 --> 00:03:40,730 So in 1971, this first one single country that 74 00:03:40,730 --> 00:03:44,180 is India, second, India and Pakistan, and after '71, 75 00:03:44,180 --> 00:03:45,470 it became three countries. 76 00:03:45,470 --> 00:03:47,970 That is India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. 77 00:03:47,970 --> 00:03:50,340 So this is the case. 78 00:03:50,340 --> 00:03:55,310 And here, I'm bringing this little bit of history 79 00:03:55,310 --> 00:03:58,650 to explain the relationship dynamics of Bangladesh 80 00:03:58,650 --> 00:03:59,150 and India. 81 00:03:59,150 --> 00:04:01,280 Because without bringing the relationship dynamics 82 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,590 between Bangladesh and India, it is kind of 83 00:04:03,590 --> 00:04:05,420 tough to understand that how and why 84 00:04:05,420 --> 00:04:07,930 this treaty is so sensitive. 85 00:04:07,930 --> 00:04:12,850 So here, we can see that in 16 December, 1971, you can see, 86 00:04:12,850 --> 00:04:14,820 this is the surrender ceremony. 87 00:04:14,820 --> 00:04:17,560 This is the surrender ceremony of the occupying force in 16 88 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:18,190 December. 89 00:04:18,190 --> 00:04:20,980 And on the left side, 3 million people, 90 00:04:20,980 --> 00:04:23,590 that is the official number Bangladesh claims. 91 00:04:23,590 --> 00:04:24,340 It is disputed. 92 00:04:24,340 --> 00:04:26,500 But this is the official number that it was killed. 93 00:04:26,500 --> 00:04:28,480 So there was-- we say that there has 94 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,650 been genocide and murders, which happens almost in all the wars. 95 00:04:31,650 --> 00:04:33,520 So this is the surrender ceremony. 96 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,250 And there is an interesting fact, you will see, 97 00:04:36,250 --> 00:04:40,780 that in the left side, someone who is signing for Bangladesh, 98 00:04:40,780 --> 00:04:45,060 this is an Indian general, General Jagjit Singh Aurora. 99 00:04:45,060 --> 00:04:48,270 So you can understand the historical connection 100 00:04:48,270 --> 00:04:49,740 between India and Bangladesh. 101 00:04:49,740 --> 00:04:51,060 It's very deep. 102 00:04:51,060 --> 00:04:53,430 And it used to be-- 103 00:04:53,430 --> 00:04:57,900 during the liberation war, India directly helped us militarily. 104 00:04:57,900 --> 00:05:00,960 And later, after the independence, which-- 105 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,930 both the parties considered that both India and Bangladesh 106 00:05:03,930 --> 00:05:05,310 would be very friendly. 107 00:05:05,310 --> 00:05:09,930 But after the independence, that actually changed. 108 00:05:09,930 --> 00:05:13,180 And major anti-Indian sentiment has been present there. 109 00:05:13,180 --> 00:05:15,240 And one of the reasons this happened 110 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:22,110 is the Farakka Dam, which has created serious trouble 111 00:05:22,110 --> 00:05:23,080 for Bangladesh. 112 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,680 And for that, gradually there has been some treaties. 113 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,300 And it was so serious that-- 114 00:05:28,300 --> 00:05:30,970 let me explain the basics a little bit first. 115 00:05:30,970 --> 00:05:33,840 So I will be reading from an article by Saidur Rahman. 116 00:05:33,840 --> 00:05:36,630 So this is the Ganges water basin. 117 00:05:36,630 --> 00:05:40,390 You can see that, from here, the Ganges is coming, and coming, 118 00:05:40,390 --> 00:05:40,890 and coming. 119 00:05:40,890 --> 00:05:42,600 And it is entering from the Hooghly. 120 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,120 Hooghly falls in the West Bengal. 121 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,350 So previously, before the partition, Bengal was united. 122 00:05:49,350 --> 00:05:51,420 So there was no East Bengal or West Bengal. 123 00:05:51,420 --> 00:05:56,970 So after the partition, one part of Bengal fall into India. 124 00:05:56,970 --> 00:05:58,480 We speak the same language. 125 00:05:58,480 --> 00:05:59,640 Our culture is almost same. 126 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,670 The religion is a little bit different. 127 00:06:02,670 --> 00:06:05,842 The Hindu majority is in the western part, the West Bengal. 128 00:06:05,842 --> 00:06:07,800 And the Muslim majority is in the eastern part. 129 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,463 Because the partition happened for the two nations 130 00:06:10,463 --> 00:06:12,630 theory, that the Muslims will be living in Pakistan, 131 00:06:12,630 --> 00:06:14,130 and the Hindus and other religions 132 00:06:14,130 --> 00:06:15,130 will be living in India. 133 00:06:15,130 --> 00:06:16,005 So that was a theory. 134 00:06:16,005 --> 00:06:17,436 But that didn't work. 135 00:06:17,436 --> 00:06:23,190 So here, when we speak about this Ganges Water Basin, 136 00:06:23,190 --> 00:06:25,080 we would speak about the Ganges River. 137 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,900 The Ganges River originates in the central Himalayas 138 00:06:27,900 --> 00:06:32,400 at the altitude of 7,010 meters, and extends 139 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,680 into the alluvial and Gangetic plains, 140 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,860 then drains into the Indian Ocean at the Bay of Bengal. 141 00:06:37,860 --> 00:06:39,870 The Ganges is a transboundary river, 142 00:06:39,870 --> 00:06:44,700 which has a total length of approximately 2,600 kilometers 143 00:06:44,700 --> 00:06:49,920 and a total catchment area of 1,087,000 square kilometer. 144 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,190 The river basin spreads across India, Nepal, China, 145 00:06:53,190 --> 00:06:53,970 and Bangladesh. 146 00:06:53,970 --> 00:06:56,700 Well, India shares the major portion, which 147 00:06:56,700 --> 00:06:58,920 is 79% of the total basin area. 148 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,490 And in contrast, Bangladesh is the furthest downstream country 149 00:07:02,490 --> 00:07:05,100 of the basin and shares only about 4% 150 00:07:05,100 --> 00:07:07,080 of the basin area, which nevertheless 151 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:11,010 represents 37% of the total area of Bangladesh. 152 00:07:11,010 --> 00:07:14,730 The hydrological cycle and water resources of the Ganges basin 153 00:07:14,730 --> 00:07:17,400 are governed by a Southwest Monsoon, 154 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,820 characterized by high temperature, heavy rainfall, 155 00:07:20,820 --> 00:07:22,890 strong seasonal variations. 156 00:07:22,890 --> 00:07:24,780 The region is characterized by flooding 157 00:07:24,780 --> 00:07:27,300 in the wet season, which is June to October, 158 00:07:27,300 --> 00:07:30,030 and water scarcity in the dry season, which 159 00:07:30,030 --> 00:07:30,930 is November to May. 160 00:07:30,930 --> 00:07:34,200 And during the monsoon season, there is an abundance of water. 161 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:36,990 But during non-monsoon season, a lower precipitation 162 00:07:36,990 --> 00:07:39,270 causes a reduced flow in the basin. 163 00:07:39,270 --> 00:07:42,000 The insufficient supply of water in the downstream 164 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,210 during the dry season causes significant socioeconomic 165 00:07:45,210 --> 00:07:48,990 impacts, through disruption to the agriculture, fisheries, 166 00:07:48,990 --> 00:07:51,640 forestry, and navigation of this region. 167 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,930 So here, we can see a little bit more details 168 00:07:54,930 --> 00:07:57,870 of the close-up, the Ganges River that is entering. 169 00:07:57,870 --> 00:07:58,950 Here is the Farakka Dam. 170 00:07:58,950 --> 00:08:01,380 And there, it's-- 171 00:08:01,380 --> 00:08:05,990 Ganges enter Bangladesh through the West Bengal, the Hooghly 172 00:08:05,990 --> 00:08:07,080 area, Hooghly River. 173 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,220 And it enters and it becomes Padma, 174 00:08:09,220 --> 00:08:11,340 which is the biggest river in Bangladesh, also, 175 00:08:11,340 --> 00:08:13,380 which is the economically most significant river 176 00:08:13,380 --> 00:08:14,790 in Bangladesh. 177 00:08:14,790 --> 00:08:18,700 And the impact, you can see in the next picture-- 178 00:08:18,700 --> 00:08:20,970 you can see that in the lower part, which 179 00:08:20,970 --> 00:08:24,390 means this part, this whole part, this Ganges 180 00:08:24,390 --> 00:08:28,470 Delta, the lower part, the Ganges River, when it enters 181 00:08:28,470 --> 00:08:30,150 Bangladesh, it becomes Padma. 182 00:08:30,150 --> 00:08:34,799 And any change in the flow, or any climatic change, 183 00:08:34,799 --> 00:08:37,409 or any man-made change has serious impact 184 00:08:37,409 --> 00:08:40,350 in the lower region of the southern part of Bangladesh. 185 00:08:40,350 --> 00:08:43,860 And I actually have seen directly 186 00:08:43,860 --> 00:08:48,000 because my hometown is actually in the Bagerhat area, which 187 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:49,120 is in this region. 188 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,740 So although it's like anecdotal experience, 189 00:08:52,740 --> 00:08:56,070 but I can actually see that our village area, 190 00:08:56,070 --> 00:08:59,670 it was actually very full of flora and fauna. 191 00:08:59,670 --> 00:09:01,800 But with time, it actually reduced. 192 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:07,140 And now, when I go to the village after five or 10 years, 193 00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:09,160 we see that it has totally changed. 194 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,400 So this actually matches with the academic articles 195 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:12,490 that I've read here. 196 00:09:12,490 --> 00:09:15,490 So what are the major water diplomacy 197 00:09:15,490 --> 00:09:18,040 events between Bangladesh and India since 1971? 198 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,060 As you know that, in 1971, Bangladesh became independent. 199 00:09:22,060 --> 00:09:23,620 And India had direct help. 200 00:09:23,620 --> 00:09:25,580 India had direct contribution towards that. 201 00:09:25,580 --> 00:09:29,770 So in 1972, right after Bangladesh became independent 202 00:09:29,770 --> 00:09:32,947 in 1971, December, and in 1972, the Bangladesh 203 00:09:32,947 --> 00:09:34,780 father of the nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, 204 00:09:34,780 --> 00:09:38,440 and Indian prime minister, Indira Gandhi, they sat down. 205 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,078 Water was actually an issue back then. 206 00:09:40,078 --> 00:09:41,620 Water was actually an issue back then 207 00:09:41,620 --> 00:09:43,900 between India and Pakistan, especially 208 00:09:43,900 --> 00:09:47,050 this Farakka Dam, the Ganges River water sharing treaty. 209 00:09:47,050 --> 00:09:52,030 So for the first time, they actually sat down immediately 210 00:09:52,030 --> 00:09:55,420 after the independence in 1972, which actually 211 00:09:55,420 --> 00:09:58,420 shows that how important it is for the region 212 00:09:58,420 --> 00:10:00,640 to maintain the peace and tranquility between the two 213 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:01,370 countries. 214 00:10:01,370 --> 00:10:03,280 So the first joint water commission 215 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,430 between India and Bangladesh was established in 1972. 216 00:10:06,430 --> 00:10:09,910 And this newly-made joint water commission 217 00:10:09,910 --> 00:10:12,220 between India and Bangladesh actually tried to survey. 218 00:10:12,220 --> 00:10:14,140 And they try to determine what are the course of actions 219 00:10:14,140 --> 00:10:15,100 that can be taken. 220 00:10:15,100 --> 00:10:19,510 Because for decades, for India-Pakistan rivalry, 221 00:10:19,510 --> 00:10:20,990 no development actually happened. 222 00:10:20,990 --> 00:10:26,920 So in 1974, it was declared by that commission that-- 223 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:28,810 there was this joint declaration to resolve 224 00:10:28,810 --> 00:10:30,492 water sharing issues, the existing 225 00:10:30,492 --> 00:10:31,450 issues that were there. 226 00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:34,660 But in 1975, Bangabandhu, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman 227 00:10:34,660 --> 00:10:36,130 was killed with his family. 228 00:10:36,130 --> 00:10:37,750 And there was a coup d'état. 229 00:10:37,750 --> 00:10:39,250 And the military took over. 230 00:10:39,250 --> 00:10:44,950 So in 1976, India unilaterally withdrew from this declaration. 231 00:10:44,950 --> 00:10:49,270 So after this happened, in 1977, there 232 00:10:49,270 --> 00:10:51,220 was this temporary five-year treaty, 233 00:10:51,220 --> 00:10:55,270 which ended in 1982, which started in 1977, giving 234 00:10:55,270 --> 00:11:00,370 the Bangladesh national party regime, which is historically 235 00:11:00,370 --> 00:11:02,200 considered as anti-India. 236 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,960 So in 1982, it was not renewed. 237 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,420 And after that, after a long break, 238 00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:11,750 in 1996, there was this treaty between India and Bangladesh, 239 00:11:11,750 --> 00:11:14,440 which is a Ganges water sharing treaty between Bangladesh 240 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,230 and India, which was signed by Deve 241 00:11:17,230 --> 00:11:19,630 Gowda, the then-prime minister of India 242 00:11:19,630 --> 00:11:22,900 and the present prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina 243 00:11:22,900 --> 00:11:23,690 Wazed. 244 00:11:23,690 --> 00:11:27,010 So this is more or less the major developments. 245 00:11:27,010 --> 00:11:30,220 And there is this interesting fact 246 00:11:30,220 --> 00:11:34,780 that is there, that from India to Bangladesh, 247 00:11:34,780 --> 00:11:36,910 54 rivers actually come. 248 00:11:36,910 --> 00:11:38,410 And Bangladesh is in the downstream. 249 00:11:38,410 --> 00:11:39,760 And India is in the upstream. 250 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:41,685 54 rivers from India-- 251 00:11:41,685 --> 00:11:43,060 Bangladesh is a riverine country. 252 00:11:43,060 --> 00:11:44,920 There is hundreds of rivers. 253 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,380 54 of them actually comes from India. 254 00:11:47,380 --> 00:11:51,910 And it is spread in Bangladesh throughout, just like a net. 255 00:11:51,910 --> 00:11:56,080 But unfortunately, so far, there has been only one treaty, 256 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,350 one proper treaty, which is the Ganges water 257 00:11:59,350 --> 00:12:00,550 treaty with treaty sharing. 258 00:12:00,550 --> 00:12:05,140 And for last quarter century, there has been no treaty. 259 00:12:05,140 --> 00:12:08,467 And another water treaty, the Teesta water treaty, 260 00:12:08,467 --> 00:12:09,550 there has been many talks. 261 00:12:09,550 --> 00:12:10,990 But still, there has been no development. 262 00:12:10,990 --> 00:12:12,820 So we can actually understand that why 263 00:12:12,820 --> 00:12:15,040 we are speaking about this Ganges water sharing 264 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,220 treaty and its significance. 265 00:12:18,220 --> 00:12:20,970 So what do we find in 1996 water treaty 266 00:12:20,970 --> 00:12:22,570 between Bangladesh and India? 267 00:12:22,570 --> 00:12:24,360 So this was the treaty. 268 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:25,873 This is the very, very minimum. 269 00:12:25,873 --> 00:12:26,790 That treaty was there. 270 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,650 The sharing calculation was like this-- 271 00:12:34,650 --> 00:12:39,420 70,000 cusecs or less water, when it's available, 50% 272 00:12:39,420 --> 00:12:42,060 will go to India, 50% will go to Bangladesh. 273 00:12:42,060 --> 00:12:44,937 If it's between 70,000 to 75,000, 274 00:12:44,937 --> 00:12:46,770 India will maintain the balance of the flow, 275 00:12:46,770 --> 00:12:50,910 and the Bangladesh will have remaining a 35,000 cusecs. 276 00:12:50,910 --> 00:12:55,530 And 75,000 or more, when there is water availability, 277 00:12:55,530 --> 00:12:58,042 40,000 cusecs will go to India, and Bangladesh will 278 00:12:58,042 --> 00:12:59,250 maintain balance of the flow. 279 00:12:59,250 --> 00:13:03,840 So that was the very basic and the very minimum of the water 280 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,060 sharing treaty between Bangladesh and India. 281 00:13:06,060 --> 00:13:08,870 So what are the real scenario? 282 00:13:08,870 --> 00:13:10,910 I mean, this is the treaty that we have got. 283 00:13:10,910 --> 00:13:12,510 But what is the real scenario? 284 00:13:12,510 --> 00:13:14,780 So here, we can see the real scenario, 285 00:13:14,780 --> 00:13:17,210 that Bangladesh has been frequently deprived 286 00:13:17,210 --> 00:13:19,940 of its minimum share during the most critical periods 287 00:13:19,940 --> 00:13:20,960 of the dry season. 288 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,560 And this has caused the loss of agricultural land, 289 00:13:24,560 --> 00:13:26,090 created problem in salination. 290 00:13:26,090 --> 00:13:28,010 The wellness of the people has decreased. 291 00:13:28,010 --> 00:13:30,890 And it has created such a huge issue, 292 00:13:30,890 --> 00:13:33,050 that in every election that Bangladesh happens, 293 00:13:33,050 --> 00:13:34,730 this repeatedly comes. 294 00:13:34,730 --> 00:13:38,030 And during the March 21 to 31, the 10-day cycle, 295 00:13:38,030 --> 00:13:41,720 in the year 2010, the actual release to Bangladesh 296 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,390 was 44% lower than the indicated release. 297 00:13:44,390 --> 00:13:49,550 And in 2016, the situation became even worse. 298 00:13:49,550 --> 00:13:51,950 The actual release during March 21 to 31 299 00:13:51,950 --> 00:13:54,830 was 47% lower than the indicated share, 300 00:13:54,830 --> 00:13:57,560 followed by a further 34% and 49% 301 00:13:57,560 --> 00:14:00,110 decrease of flows during the other alternate political 302 00:14:00,110 --> 00:14:00,960 periods. 303 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,570 So we can see that whatever that is written there in the treaty, 304 00:14:05,570 --> 00:14:07,430 unfortunately, this is not. 305 00:14:07,430 --> 00:14:09,930 The real scenario is very, very different, 306 00:14:09,930 --> 00:14:13,010 which is why, I mean, we have to look into these issues 307 00:14:13,010 --> 00:14:13,653 very seriously. 308 00:14:13,653 --> 00:14:14,570 And we have to decide. 309 00:14:14,570 --> 00:14:18,170 Because this is going to end in 2025. 310 00:14:18,170 --> 00:14:19,220 This is 2021. 311 00:14:19,220 --> 00:14:23,658 And if it is not renewed, a very different scenario 312 00:14:23,658 --> 00:14:24,200 might happen. 313 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:25,783 We don't know what is going to happen. 314 00:14:25,783 --> 00:14:27,410 But now is actually the perfect time 315 00:14:27,410 --> 00:14:29,580 to think about this particular scenario 316 00:14:29,580 --> 00:14:32,360 and think of different possibilities, 317 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,140 especially from the conflict resolution point of view. 318 00:14:36,140 --> 00:14:39,500 And what are the problems with the treaty that we can see? 319 00:14:39,500 --> 00:14:42,380 That it underestimated the impact of climate variability, 320 00:14:42,380 --> 00:14:44,220 the frequency of low flow events, 321 00:14:44,220 --> 00:14:46,670 and increased water restrictions upstream. 322 00:14:46,670 --> 00:14:49,310 And the future climate change and higher upstream water 323 00:14:49,310 --> 00:14:50,690 demands were not predicted. 324 00:14:50,690 --> 00:14:52,700 And also, in several locations, neither 325 00:14:52,700 --> 00:14:55,040 Bangladesh-- this is very interesting. 326 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,790 I was speaking about the problem that Bangladesh is facing, 327 00:14:58,790 --> 00:15:02,150 but a few articles actually indicated 328 00:15:02,150 --> 00:15:04,070 that the treaty was made in such a way that, 329 00:15:04,070 --> 00:15:05,600 in several occasions-- 330 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,000 not only once, not only twice, but several occasions-- 331 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,090 neither Bangladesh nor India was able to receive 332 00:15:11,090 --> 00:15:15,260 their respective shares as stipulated in the treaty. 333 00:15:15,260 --> 00:15:20,820 And some other problems that we can discuss with the treaty 334 00:15:20,820 --> 00:15:23,460 is that Bangladesh frequently did not receive its fair share 335 00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:26,160 during the most critical periods of the dry season, when 336 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,310 water demand is relatively high in both countries. 337 00:15:29,310 --> 00:15:34,180 And there was no guarantee clause for Bangladesh, 338 00:15:34,180 --> 00:15:35,820 which would ensure that-- 339 00:15:35,820 --> 00:15:37,530 I mean, although there is treaty. 340 00:15:37,530 --> 00:15:40,860 But if Bangladesh does not get, there 341 00:15:40,860 --> 00:15:43,810 is no guarantee that is ensured for Bangladesh. 342 00:15:43,810 --> 00:15:45,570 So that became another major problem. 343 00:15:45,570 --> 00:15:48,040 And the opponents of the current government, they 344 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,120 used to say things like there is no guarantee, which 345 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:52,980 means this is just a show-off, which 346 00:15:52,980 --> 00:15:56,020 also created huge political turmoil in Bangladesh scenario. 347 00:15:56,020 --> 00:15:59,430 And it is evident that the advanced hydrological models 348 00:15:59,430 --> 00:16:08,430 were not used, because if advanced hydrological models 349 00:16:08,430 --> 00:16:10,950 were used, the prediction would not 350 00:16:10,950 --> 00:16:12,885 be creating so much trouble. 351 00:16:15,745 --> 00:16:18,840 If there was deliberate error, then maybe one side 352 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,080 would be benefited, and one side would not be benefited. 353 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:26,250 But unfortunately, the standard was set in such a way, 354 00:16:26,250 --> 00:16:28,595 it shows that none of the countries, several times, 355 00:16:28,595 --> 00:16:29,970 do not get what they are supposed 356 00:16:29,970 --> 00:16:31,262 to get according to the treaty. 357 00:16:31,262 --> 00:16:33,750 So some of the authors, like [INAUDIBLE],, 358 00:16:33,750 --> 00:16:37,500 he actually questioned the hydrological models 359 00:16:37,500 --> 00:16:40,170 that has been used to deal with the treaty. 360 00:16:40,170 --> 00:16:42,780 And he also claimed that the advanced models were not 361 00:16:42,780 --> 00:16:45,810 used, which is why the treaty is in the pen and paper. 362 00:16:45,810 --> 00:16:51,150 But in reality, the quantitative distribution of water 363 00:16:51,150 --> 00:16:54,090 has not take place properly. 364 00:16:54,090 --> 00:16:56,840 So this is, we can see, there are 365 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:01,040 some picture-- two pictures, actually, that I picked, 366 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,240 what happened during the dry season. 367 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,069 So Bangladesh is a country, which 368 00:17:07,069 --> 00:17:10,670 used to be full of blessings from the nature, a lot of-- 369 00:17:10,670 --> 00:17:13,250 I mean, you wouldn't see dry lands very often. 370 00:17:13,250 --> 00:17:16,560 But after this barrage actually happened 371 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,770 and during the dry season, this actually happened. 372 00:17:18,770 --> 00:17:24,230 And what happened is the poor farmers, I mean, many of them 373 00:17:24,230 --> 00:17:26,420 actually lost their lands. 374 00:17:26,420 --> 00:17:27,380 And they had to-- 375 00:17:27,380 --> 00:17:29,360 I mean, some of them actually-- there 376 00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:32,203 has been cases that some of them could not even survive. 377 00:17:32,203 --> 00:17:33,620 Physically, they couldn't survive. 378 00:17:33,620 --> 00:17:36,800 And many of them in those areas, they left their lands. 379 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,930 And they came to the capital city, 380 00:17:38,930 --> 00:17:41,030 which is why, after they came to the capital city, 381 00:17:41,030 --> 00:17:42,710 they didn't do anything but agriculture. 382 00:17:42,710 --> 00:17:44,210 But they started to find a job. 383 00:17:44,210 --> 00:17:45,140 They didn't find it. 384 00:17:45,140 --> 00:17:48,980 So they tried to do other things, which didn't work. 385 00:17:48,980 --> 00:17:52,010 And at one point, what happened that crime rate 386 00:17:52,010 --> 00:17:53,030 increased very high. 387 00:17:53,030 --> 00:17:56,030 Because these people, they cannot survive in their area. 388 00:17:56,030 --> 00:17:58,490 And they come to the capital city or the big cities. 389 00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:01,500 And they start a career in crime. 390 00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:05,780 So that is how actually, indirectly, even with the crime 391 00:18:05,780 --> 00:18:08,600 perspective, even the law enforcement perspective, 392 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,590 this Farakka is actually affecting Bangladesh. 393 00:18:11,590 --> 00:18:16,550 So let's see the ground realities. 394 00:18:16,550 --> 00:18:20,480 So now that we will enter into the third part 395 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:24,650 of our presentation, which is the water diplomacy part. 396 00:18:24,650 --> 00:18:27,440 So let us check out some of the ground realities. 397 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,100 First of all, I mean, India has economic, political, 398 00:18:31,100 --> 00:18:33,020 geographical, and military advantage. 399 00:18:33,020 --> 00:18:37,720 And not only that, it has been very few-- 400 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,390 I mean, for last almost 15 years, 401 00:18:40,390 --> 00:18:43,030 the present government is in power. 402 00:18:43,030 --> 00:18:45,580 And they have very strong tie with Indians. 403 00:18:45,580 --> 00:18:49,130 And many of the political experts, 404 00:18:49,130 --> 00:18:52,030 they say that without India's support and backing, 405 00:18:52,030 --> 00:18:53,950 this government wouldn't probably survive. 406 00:18:53,950 --> 00:18:55,450 So some of the political scientists, 407 00:18:55,450 --> 00:18:58,460 they actually come up with that sort of analysis. 408 00:18:58,460 --> 00:19:00,828 So I mean, whether this is true or false, 409 00:19:00,828 --> 00:19:01,870 that is a separate issue. 410 00:19:01,870 --> 00:19:08,410 But one thing that is clear, that a huge, huge population, 411 00:19:08,410 --> 00:19:11,510 a major population group, they actually believe this. 412 00:19:11,510 --> 00:19:14,140 And once they believe this, they automatically 413 00:19:14,140 --> 00:19:16,180 have the anti-India sentiment. 414 00:19:16,180 --> 00:19:20,170 And India, by cashing out on this sentiment, even 415 00:19:20,170 --> 00:19:22,120 the political leaders, they also get paranoid. 416 00:19:22,120 --> 00:19:25,240 They also think that if we try to take any decision that 417 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,610 does not directly go in favor of India, 418 00:19:27,610 --> 00:19:31,630 maybe India will try to pressure the Bangladesh politics, 419 00:19:31,630 --> 00:19:35,290 and the Bangladeshi political leaders will lose their seat. 420 00:19:35,290 --> 00:19:40,320 So with this fear, very, very little instance 421 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,540 up there that Bangladesh actually confronted India. 422 00:19:42,540 --> 00:19:44,250 And I'm sure that this situation is not 423 00:19:44,250 --> 00:19:46,210 uncommon in other parts of the world. 424 00:19:46,210 --> 00:19:52,020 So also, like in 1971, India was directly 425 00:19:52,020 --> 00:19:54,240 supporting Bangladesh to become independent. 426 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,610 Their soldiers actually died with our freedom fighters. 427 00:19:56,610 --> 00:19:59,910 So what happened that when the war ended, 428 00:19:59,910 --> 00:20:04,050 immediately, there was a joint commission initiated. 429 00:20:04,050 --> 00:20:07,170 But it is very unlikely that that sort 430 00:20:07,170 --> 00:20:09,840 of warmth of relationship between the two countries 431 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,220 is going to come back in the near future. 432 00:20:12,220 --> 00:20:14,620 And even there is a strong political will, 433 00:20:14,620 --> 00:20:17,790 there is animosity, both from Bangladesh side 434 00:20:17,790 --> 00:20:18,930 and the Indian side. 435 00:20:18,930 --> 00:20:21,810 And as I say that there is very strong anti-Indian sentiment 436 00:20:21,810 --> 00:20:23,400 currently living in Bangladesh. 437 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,400 And these feelings is mutual due to the political scenario 438 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:27,960 both in India and in Bangladesh. 439 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,960 The present government in India, they try to-- 440 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:32,370 they are a populist government. 441 00:20:32,370 --> 00:20:35,040 And there is us versus them-- this sentiment 442 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,673 is being very much played in India, and also in Bangladesh. 443 00:20:37,673 --> 00:20:39,090 So these are the ground realities. 444 00:20:39,090 --> 00:20:40,507 So what are the things that we can 445 00:20:40,507 --> 00:20:45,570 do that I'm trying to portray? 446 00:20:45,570 --> 00:20:48,800 The first water diplomacy approach that I try to find 447 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,420 is finding common grounds. 448 00:20:50,420 --> 00:20:53,090 What are the common grounds that we can say? 449 00:20:53,090 --> 00:20:55,130 Because Bangladesh actually stand no chance 450 00:20:55,130 --> 00:20:57,380 by confronting India, saying that you have to give us. 451 00:20:57,380 --> 00:20:59,510 India will just say that well, we won't give you. 452 00:20:59,510 --> 00:21:00,810 Do whatever you want. 453 00:21:00,810 --> 00:21:03,660 So here, this International Water Management Institute. 454 00:21:03,660 --> 00:21:07,530 So from there, I actually brought this. 455 00:21:07,530 --> 00:21:09,950 And so these are the issues that we can see, 456 00:21:09,950 --> 00:21:13,460 that low-dry season freshwater flow, the increasing siltation, 457 00:21:13,460 --> 00:21:15,560 accumulation of sediments, water resources 458 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,870 along the areas of the river basins are depleting. 459 00:21:17,870 --> 00:21:19,550 The small rivers and the distributor 460 00:21:19,550 --> 00:21:22,760 is getting dried and disconnected, reduced length 461 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,010 of waterways used for links and navigation, 462 00:21:25,010 --> 00:21:29,390 and riverbed erosion, formation of dry lands, 463 00:21:29,390 --> 00:21:31,260 and the socioeconomic vulnerabilities. 464 00:21:31,260 --> 00:21:32,870 So the problems that has been there-- 465 00:21:32,870 --> 00:21:36,530 Goral is actually a variant of the Ganges River, 466 00:21:36,530 --> 00:21:39,050 on the middle side of the Bangladesh. 467 00:21:39,050 --> 00:21:41,540 And Hooghly-Bhagirathi River is in the West Bengal, 468 00:21:41,540 --> 00:21:42,410 another river. 469 00:21:42,410 --> 00:21:46,460 So these common issues that is actually there 470 00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:48,090 both between India and Bangladesh. 471 00:21:48,090 --> 00:21:50,210 So the joint water commission that we have, 472 00:21:50,210 --> 00:21:53,000 and in our water diplomacy syllabus, 473 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,460 what we have studied in various times, 474 00:21:55,460 --> 00:21:59,060 that an emphasis on joint protocol and finding 475 00:21:59,060 --> 00:22:01,940 the common ground, and finding the common challenges 476 00:22:01,940 --> 00:22:03,960 is very much stressed in water diplomacy. 477 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,750 So I think these are the issues that 478 00:22:05,750 --> 00:22:08,000 happens both for India and Bangladesh 479 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:15,060 during the dry seasons in West Bengal and in Bangladesh. 480 00:22:15,060 --> 00:22:18,620 So these are the things that both the parties can discuss. 481 00:22:18,620 --> 00:22:21,860 And they can try to share some common ground, which 482 00:22:21,860 --> 00:22:22,610 can be exploited. 483 00:22:22,610 --> 00:22:27,350 And that is how the treaty can be upgraded. 484 00:22:27,350 --> 00:22:31,040 So another modern diplomacy approach 485 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,310 is indicating India's own problems with Farakka. 486 00:22:34,310 --> 00:22:38,210 This is a 2017 newspaper article with some references. 487 00:22:38,210 --> 00:22:40,490 So there is this Indian chief engineer. 488 00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:45,020 He actually discussed when this plan was happening in 1961. 489 00:22:45,020 --> 00:22:50,160 So he actually pointed out some various problems, 490 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,920 for example, the drought and the climate change. 491 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,820 These are the things he actually pointed out 492 00:22:55,820 --> 00:22:56,900 to the Indian government. 493 00:22:56,900 --> 00:22:58,970 He's a Bengali guy, Krishna Bhattacharya. 494 00:22:58,970 --> 00:23:01,520 So he actually pointed out those problems. 495 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,040 But back then, his career took-- 496 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,560 he was a chief engineer on the West Bengal side 497 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,250 when this Farakka Dam was happening. 498 00:23:08,250 --> 00:23:10,472 And when he indicated those problems, 499 00:23:10,472 --> 00:23:12,180 for example, the different parts of Patna 500 00:23:12,180 --> 00:23:15,110 into and for other districts in Bihar, the flooding, 501 00:23:15,110 --> 00:23:17,720 the drought, and the change of biodiversity, 502 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,400 and the salinity issues. 503 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,430 And also, the annual silt dredging in Kolkata port 504 00:23:22,430 --> 00:23:28,550 quadrupled from 6.4 million cubic meter to 21.88 million 505 00:23:28,550 --> 00:23:29,930 cubic meter till 2003. 506 00:23:29,930 --> 00:23:31,880 So this sort of things happened. 507 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,570 And these were actually predicted. 508 00:23:33,570 --> 00:23:37,430 So this problem, not only it's from an academic report. 509 00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:42,770 This was so serious that Bihar, in the Bihar area, 510 00:23:42,770 --> 00:23:44,450 some very influential politicians-- 511 00:23:44,450 --> 00:23:46,520 the chief ministers-- and they actually 512 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,010 say the central government that why don't you, I mean, 513 00:23:49,010 --> 00:23:50,600 demolish the Farakka Dam? 514 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,810 So the way Bangladesh wants a solution for this Farakka 515 00:23:53,810 --> 00:23:56,630 problem, even some parts of India 516 00:23:56,630 --> 00:23:58,290 there actually wants the same. 517 00:23:58,290 --> 00:24:00,650 So when there would be a discussion, maybe, 518 00:24:00,650 --> 00:24:03,770 from Bangladesh's perspective, this India's own interest 519 00:24:03,770 --> 00:24:09,400 can be exploited and come to a middle ground. 520 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,950 And this is something which Bangladesh repeatedly 521 00:24:11,950 --> 00:24:14,290 failed at, India became repeatedly successful. 522 00:24:14,290 --> 00:24:23,530 Bangladesh, after the 1982, when another party, 523 00:24:23,530 --> 00:24:26,500 which is historically considered as anti-India, 524 00:24:26,500 --> 00:24:29,650 they came to power, they tried to internationalize the Farakka 525 00:24:29,650 --> 00:24:30,400 situation. 526 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:31,600 They tried to-- 527 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,170 I mean, the SAARC was built. And then this issue was taken. 528 00:24:35,170 --> 00:24:38,600 But India was actually stressing that this is a bilateral issue. 529 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,330 But if you look at the basin, you 530 00:24:40,330 --> 00:24:43,450 will see that there is China, Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. 531 00:24:43,450 --> 00:24:45,460 Well, Bhutan and Nepal, their case 532 00:24:45,460 --> 00:24:46,720 is exactly like Bangladesh. 533 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,130 But the surprising new scenario is 534 00:24:50,130 --> 00:24:54,370 that, now that China has global aspirations, China more 535 00:24:54,370 --> 00:24:57,323 than once, they came out with the Teesta river-- 536 00:24:57,323 --> 00:24:59,740 which is another river in the northern part of Bangladesh. 537 00:24:59,740 --> 00:25:01,960 They came up with the proposal that we would help you 538 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,610 with the technology and the money 539 00:25:03,610 --> 00:25:06,040 so that you can build another bridge on another side. 540 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:11,470 So this became another bargaining chip for Bangladesh, 541 00:25:11,470 --> 00:25:19,770 that using the China factor and building an international-- 542 00:25:19,770 --> 00:25:21,520 the Joint Commission can be international. 543 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:22,930 It needs not to be bilateral. 544 00:25:22,930 --> 00:25:24,850 It can be international, bringing China, 545 00:25:24,850 --> 00:25:28,133 since China is actually trying to provide Bangladesh 546 00:25:28,133 --> 00:25:29,050 with some new options. 547 00:25:29,050 --> 00:25:32,410 And they are actually saying that China's water weapon, that 548 00:25:32,410 --> 00:25:36,020 is the word they have used. 549 00:25:36,020 --> 00:25:42,450 But this is a concept that I've borrowed from the [INAUDIBLE] 550 00:25:42,450 --> 00:25:43,460 class. 551 00:25:43,460 --> 00:25:45,260 They're bringing other bargaining chips 552 00:25:45,260 --> 00:25:47,810 that is not usually considered. 553 00:25:47,810 --> 00:25:50,600 For example, this is Bangladesh. 554 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,150 On the left side, the West Bengal is there. 555 00:25:53,150 --> 00:25:54,800 You can see the Jharkhand, Bihar. 556 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,210 And this is Nepal, Bhutan. 557 00:25:56,210 --> 00:25:57,350 This is Bangladesh. 558 00:25:57,350 --> 00:26:00,920 And you see a huge part of India is actually there. 559 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,910 And the majority of the border is with Bangladesh. 560 00:26:04,910 --> 00:26:07,640 And there is, I mean, sentiment-- 561 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:11,408 there is strong sentiment against the central Indian 562 00:26:11,408 --> 00:26:12,950 government, because it is very much-- 563 00:26:12,950 --> 00:26:14,660 I mean, it is called the Seven Sisters. 564 00:26:14,660 --> 00:26:18,020 And the Seven Sisters, well, this 565 00:26:18,020 --> 00:26:20,360 is far from the central government, which is 566 00:26:20,360 --> 00:26:22,220 why the control is very much-- 567 00:26:22,220 --> 00:26:25,730 I mean, not as strong as Delhi or the nearby states. 568 00:26:25,730 --> 00:26:29,270 And many of these states, they actually want independence 569 00:26:29,270 --> 00:26:33,530 of their own, which is why, even when, 570 00:26:33,530 --> 00:26:36,287 at present, Bangladesh and India has a very strong tie because 571 00:26:36,287 --> 00:26:37,370 of the historical reasons. 572 00:26:37,370 --> 00:26:40,130 The present prime minister, when his whole family 573 00:26:40,130 --> 00:26:43,430 was killed, for six years, he actually 574 00:26:43,430 --> 00:26:44,970 lived under the Indian protection. 575 00:26:44,970 --> 00:26:47,420 So it is considered that she would probably never go 576 00:26:47,420 --> 00:26:49,490 against the interests of India. 577 00:26:49,490 --> 00:26:53,120 But when anti-Indian sentiment comes 578 00:26:53,120 --> 00:26:55,280 with a new political party, there 579 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,130 is always threat that this part of India 580 00:26:58,130 --> 00:26:59,450 would be very much tumultuous. 581 00:26:59,450 --> 00:27:00,590 There will be terrorism. 582 00:27:00,590 --> 00:27:03,860 And many of the terrorist leaders, 583 00:27:03,860 --> 00:27:07,040 many of the nationalist leaders of those parties, 584 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,180 they actually-- 585 00:27:08,180 --> 00:27:10,130 I mean, they used to operate from Bangladesh. 586 00:27:10,130 --> 00:27:12,200 And one famous incident that I can 587 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:19,160 say that in 2004, a 10-truck load of most 588 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,100 advanced military weapons were passing towards Bangladesh. 589 00:27:22,100 --> 00:27:25,430 But it was a fluke that it was caught. 590 00:27:25,430 --> 00:27:26,930 So it became a huge case. 591 00:27:26,930 --> 00:27:30,270 So I mean, it can be a huge trouble for India. 592 00:27:30,270 --> 00:27:32,870 So this particular issue can actually 593 00:27:32,870 --> 00:27:34,430 be brought in the negotiation table, 594 00:27:34,430 --> 00:27:38,450 by saying that well, we will provide you 595 00:27:38,450 --> 00:27:40,070 full support with safety and security 596 00:27:40,070 --> 00:27:42,260 of the Seven Sister's part. 597 00:27:42,260 --> 00:27:45,650 In exchange, maybe we can discuss about the sharing 598 00:27:45,650 --> 00:27:46,970 of the water treaty. 599 00:27:46,970 --> 00:27:52,580 So this is one bargaining chip, which I think can be exploited. 600 00:27:52,580 --> 00:27:55,040 I try to check the literature. 601 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,260 But so far, I haven't seen that Bangladesh 602 00:27:57,260 --> 00:27:59,490 has went through that path. 603 00:27:59,490 --> 00:28:03,060 And another chip can be-- 604 00:28:03,060 --> 00:28:05,330 there are some articles from the Indian sides. 605 00:28:05,330 --> 00:28:07,700 They actually claim that the Bengal-- 606 00:28:07,700 --> 00:28:09,110 Bengal means the West Bengal-- 607 00:28:09,110 --> 00:28:10,190 they need Teesta. 608 00:28:10,190 --> 00:28:12,260 And the Teesta, we have a barrage in Teesta. 609 00:28:12,260 --> 00:28:13,910 We have a dam in Teesta. 610 00:28:13,910 --> 00:28:16,790 And still, there has been many talks. 611 00:28:16,790 --> 00:28:18,440 But so far, there has been no treaty. 612 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,900 So I mean, although we are speaking 613 00:28:20,900 --> 00:28:23,090 about the advancement of Ganges treaty, 614 00:28:23,090 --> 00:28:26,960 double relations Ganges treaty, maybe the Teesta River, 615 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,960 to get some advantage in Ganges river treaty, 616 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,060 Bangladesh actually can think of discussing with India 617 00:28:33,060 --> 00:28:37,070 whether they can bring this Teesta river 618 00:28:37,070 --> 00:28:38,120 treaty with them as well. 619 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,090 Teesta is very sensitive, because Teesta is actually-- 620 00:28:41,090 --> 00:28:44,240 it has originated in Sikkim, which is very close to China. 621 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,970 And this is the Teesta River, especially 622 00:28:46,970 --> 00:28:50,540 for which the Chinese actually offered Bangladesh 623 00:28:50,540 --> 00:28:53,755 technical support to bring for the dams, and by doing that, 624 00:28:53,755 --> 00:28:55,130 changing the course of the river. 625 00:28:55,130 --> 00:28:57,320 So it became a very serious issue 626 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:58,550 between Bangladesh and India. 627 00:28:58,550 --> 00:29:01,590 And the diplomatic talks are still going on. 628 00:29:01,590 --> 00:29:03,770 So these are actually the steps that we 629 00:29:03,770 --> 00:29:07,250 can think of using as the bargaining chip 630 00:29:07,250 --> 00:29:10,310 so that a new joint commission can be made. 631 00:29:10,310 --> 00:29:15,620 And the things like climate change and the other problems, 632 00:29:15,620 --> 00:29:19,370 which was not considered in 1996, can be considered now. 633 00:29:19,370 --> 00:29:24,890 Because in almost 30 years, the technology has changed, 634 00:29:24,890 --> 00:29:27,035 the GPS has come, and many other-- 635 00:29:27,035 --> 00:29:28,770 the scientific scenario has changed. 636 00:29:28,770 --> 00:29:32,810 So maybe, by bringing all these things together, 637 00:29:32,810 --> 00:29:34,490 a better solution can be saved. 638 00:29:34,490 --> 00:29:40,070 And before I finish with all the criticisms, 639 00:29:40,070 --> 00:29:41,690 I would actually again say that-- 640 00:29:41,690 --> 00:29:45,410 which I did feel and I also read from the [INAUDIBLE] article, 641 00:29:45,410 --> 00:29:50,570 that this Ganges water treaty is probably-- 642 00:29:50,570 --> 00:29:51,560 it is not perfect. 643 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,300 It is definitely not perfect. 644 00:29:53,300 --> 00:29:56,390 But if it was not there, the situation 645 00:29:56,390 --> 00:29:59,490 for both the countries would probably worse. 646 00:29:59,490 --> 00:30:01,550 So the treaty should be there. 647 00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:04,940 And we should try our best to-- 648 00:30:04,940 --> 00:30:05,960 we have four years. 649 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,360 Maybe we can try our best to think 650 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,830 of the advancement of that treaty 651 00:30:12,830 --> 00:30:16,430 and also addressing the limitations 652 00:30:16,430 --> 00:30:17,700 that we are currently facing. 653 00:30:17,700 --> 00:30:18,810 Thank you very much. 654 00:30:18,810 --> 00:30:21,102 If you have any comments and if you have any questions, 655 00:30:21,102 --> 00:30:22,470 I would like to answer them. 656 00:30:22,470 --> 00:30:25,270 Thank you very much. 657 00:30:25,270 --> 00:30:28,730 DR. GAIN: Thank you, Mashroof, for the nice presentation. 658 00:30:28,730 --> 00:30:34,060 So now, I would like to ask others to make comments, 659 00:30:34,060 --> 00:30:36,160 like Aaron and Gemma. 660 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,200 Do you have any comments or feedback? 661 00:30:41,888 --> 00:30:43,930 AUDIENCE: Thank you, Mashroof, for a really great 662 00:30:43,930 --> 00:30:44,690 presentation. 663 00:30:44,690 --> 00:30:46,910 I learned a lot. 664 00:30:46,910 --> 00:30:50,500 I really appreciated how much geographic and geopolitical 665 00:30:50,500 --> 00:30:51,880 context you brought in. 666 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,790 I thought that was really helpful. 667 00:30:54,790 --> 00:30:58,517 And I really liked the back third 668 00:30:58,517 --> 00:31:00,100 of your presentation, where you really 669 00:31:00,100 --> 00:31:04,270 kind of thought through all of the water diplomacy framework 670 00:31:04,270 --> 00:31:05,950 elements. 671 00:31:05,950 --> 00:31:07,300 So yeah, great job. 672 00:31:07,300 --> 00:31:11,260 I think my feedback, as you're thinking about writing 673 00:31:11,260 --> 00:31:15,090 your paper, would be-- 674 00:31:15,090 --> 00:31:20,190 I was a little confused at times about how the treaty has failed 675 00:31:20,190 --> 00:31:27,210 to be implemented, thinking about most specifically around 676 00:31:27,210 --> 00:31:30,600 how neither country is able to receive 677 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,150 their respective share as it was stipulated in the treaty. 678 00:31:33,150 --> 00:31:34,800 Is that a technical problem? 679 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,010 Is that a diplomatic problem? 680 00:31:38,010 --> 00:31:41,700 I think you could maybe identify where the specific limitations 681 00:31:41,700 --> 00:31:43,920 or weaknesses of the treaty are and in terms 682 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:48,870 of how that actually is manifested on the ground. 683 00:31:48,870 --> 00:31:51,978 So that's one thing to keep in mind. 684 00:31:51,978 --> 00:31:54,270 Yeah, I don't know if you could talk about that at all. 685 00:31:54,270 --> 00:31:58,980 Are there technical flaws or political flaws that 686 00:31:58,980 --> 00:32:01,080 might be helpful to understand? 687 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,540 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Well, the technical flaws-- 688 00:32:03,540 --> 00:32:06,720 I actually accept my limitations. 689 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:08,040 I'm not really a technical guy. 690 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,190 I try to read some technical papers. 691 00:32:11,190 --> 00:32:14,610 I actually read one of Professor Animesh's paper, 692 00:32:14,610 --> 00:32:16,500 which gave me some insight. 693 00:32:16,500 --> 00:32:19,170 So the one technical paper that I read, 694 00:32:19,170 --> 00:32:24,870 they say that in last two decades, 695 00:32:24,870 --> 00:32:32,940 almost last two decades, very few papers or very few research 696 00:32:32,940 --> 00:32:39,420 has been done to actually trying to quantify the amount of water 697 00:32:39,420 --> 00:32:40,480 that has been there. 698 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,390 One of the reasons was there that initially, 699 00:32:42,390 --> 00:32:44,410 the historical data was not there, for example, 700 00:32:44,410 --> 00:32:45,900 in first five years, probably-- 701 00:32:45,900 --> 00:32:47,340 I mean, first one or two years-- 702 00:32:47,340 --> 00:32:49,470 the type of precision that you need 703 00:32:49,470 --> 00:32:53,970 to get to predict that what is going 704 00:32:53,970 --> 00:32:55,440 to happen through the history. 705 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,120 Now that we have it, fortunately, 706 00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:01,590 because it has been quite long, so the research has already 707 00:33:01,590 --> 00:33:02,120 started. 708 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,200 So maybe I will try to put that. 709 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:10,420 And the diplomatic problems that we are say that-- 710 00:33:10,420 --> 00:33:13,810 one major problem that I can say, I mean, since this is-- 711 00:33:13,810 --> 00:33:16,480 I would never say this outside the classroom-- 712 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:22,030 that for example, US, it has a national policy. 713 00:33:22,030 --> 00:33:26,740 The government changes, but the policy, the main theme 714 00:33:26,740 --> 00:33:28,060 of the policy, remains. 715 00:33:28,060 --> 00:33:29,743 Maybe some sides changes, but if you 716 00:33:29,743 --> 00:33:32,160 have to change the main theme of the policy-- for example, 717 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,610 US has a defense policy. 718 00:33:33,610 --> 00:33:35,980 Right, US has a defense policy that we will do this, 719 00:33:35,980 --> 00:33:36,700 we will do that. 720 00:33:36,700 --> 00:33:39,460 How will we do that, maybe that can be discussed. 721 00:33:39,460 --> 00:33:43,520 And maybe different governments can do it in a different way. 722 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,270 So in India, of course, Indian democracy 723 00:33:46,270 --> 00:33:48,760 is not as strong as the US or the UK. 724 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,390 But in India, in some basic sectors, for example, 725 00:33:52,390 --> 00:33:55,990 the defense or whether they would share this or that, 726 00:33:55,990 --> 00:33:57,550 they also have some sort of policy. 727 00:33:57,550 --> 00:33:59,260 They also have some sort of strict policy 728 00:33:59,260 --> 00:34:02,470 that even though the political government changes, 729 00:34:02,470 --> 00:34:04,700 this doesn't change much. 730 00:34:04,700 --> 00:34:07,120 And they strongly uphold the Constitution. 731 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,159 And one of the reasons is that there has not 732 00:34:09,159 --> 00:34:11,530 been, in the history of India, more than 60 years-- 733 00:34:11,530 --> 00:34:15,040 from '47 to 2021, more than 60 years-- 734 00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,530 no military takeover was there. 735 00:34:17,530 --> 00:34:20,050 And because India is so huge, military takeover 736 00:34:20,050 --> 00:34:21,969 is actually not very much feasible. 737 00:34:21,969 --> 00:34:25,659 But in Bangladesh, it's a country 50 years of age. 738 00:34:25,659 --> 00:34:30,489 Out of 50 years, more than 15 years there 739 00:34:30,489 --> 00:34:32,380 were military governments. 740 00:34:32,380 --> 00:34:34,875 And I would be very blunt here at present. 741 00:34:34,875 --> 00:34:37,929 We are also have some autocratic government. 742 00:34:37,929 --> 00:34:42,130 And the system has become such that, I mean, 743 00:34:42,130 --> 00:34:43,989 it is very tough for Bangladesh to come out 744 00:34:43,989 --> 00:34:44,822 from this political. 745 00:34:44,822 --> 00:34:46,719 So when you speak of diplomacy, we 746 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,300 have some wonderful diplomats, really well-trained diplomats. 747 00:34:49,300 --> 00:34:52,510 But the decision actually comes from the politicians. 748 00:34:52,510 --> 00:34:53,600 I would not blame them. 749 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,690 They definitely have their point of view. 750 00:34:55,690 --> 00:34:58,660 But due to this lack of political culture, 751 00:34:58,660 --> 00:35:01,510 of having a straight aim, I mean-- 752 00:35:01,510 --> 00:35:04,840 it is like, I mean, total one government comes, 753 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,990 so for the five or 10 years, one policy was going. 754 00:35:07,990 --> 00:35:10,400 The government changes, it goes backwards. 755 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:11,800 So it's zig-zag, zig-zag. 756 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,160 So I mean, it is an issue. 757 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:19,300 But thank you very much for the input, because I will 758 00:35:19,300 --> 00:35:21,390 try to address these things. 759 00:35:21,390 --> 00:35:24,460 Specifically, maybe I wouldn't be speaking too much 760 00:35:24,460 --> 00:35:27,220 about diplomacy, because I work for the government. 761 00:35:27,220 --> 00:35:29,110 And they read those papers. 762 00:35:29,110 --> 00:35:32,740 But the technical part, maybe I will seek help 763 00:35:32,740 --> 00:35:35,890 from Larry and Professor Gain to include 764 00:35:35,890 --> 00:35:37,970 more of the technical parts in my paper. 765 00:35:37,970 --> 00:35:40,190 Thank you very much. 766 00:35:40,190 --> 00:35:43,550 AUDIENCE: Hi, Mashroof, also I learned a huge amount 767 00:35:43,550 --> 00:35:45,710 in your presentation. 768 00:35:45,710 --> 00:35:47,270 The question I have-- and perhaps you 769 00:35:47,270 --> 00:35:50,300 addressed this somewhat-- but I would like to speak more to it. 770 00:35:50,300 --> 00:35:54,560 Maybe I missed it, but does the current treaty have-- 771 00:35:59,750 --> 00:36:02,720 how does it manage water measurement? 772 00:36:02,720 --> 00:36:05,780 And in the processes for actually determining 773 00:36:05,780 --> 00:36:07,970 how much water there is different times of year 774 00:36:07,970 --> 00:36:10,340 and how much water there is over time-- 775 00:36:10,340 --> 00:36:11,810 because you talked about the ways 776 00:36:11,810 --> 00:36:14,555 in which the amount of water has changed, 777 00:36:14,555 --> 00:36:16,580 partially as a result of droughts 778 00:36:16,580 --> 00:36:19,370 and the different pieces of infrastructure that 779 00:36:19,370 --> 00:36:20,570 have been built. 780 00:36:20,570 --> 00:36:27,710 But I'm interested in if there's any ongoing collaboration, 781 00:36:27,710 --> 00:36:32,450 or shared effort, or even individual kind 782 00:36:32,450 --> 00:36:37,880 of national efforts to quantify how the water, both quantity 783 00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,060 and quality, is changing over time. 784 00:36:41,060 --> 00:36:43,413 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Well, I do not know very details 785 00:36:43,413 --> 00:36:44,330 of the technicalities. 786 00:36:44,330 --> 00:36:46,560 But I can give you some very basics, 787 00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,420 which is there on the treaty. 788 00:36:48,420 --> 00:36:51,290 So the geography of the two regions 789 00:36:51,290 --> 00:36:56,100 is more or less the same, the West Bengal and Bangladesh. 790 00:36:56,100 --> 00:36:57,950 So although we are speaking of India, 791 00:36:57,950 --> 00:37:01,250 India is a very big country, right, so 28 states. 792 00:37:01,250 --> 00:37:06,080 But ultimately, Bangladesh shares with West Bengal, 793 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,570 from where the Ganges River comes. 794 00:37:08,570 --> 00:37:13,430 So I mean, by studying Bangladesh 795 00:37:13,430 --> 00:37:17,090 or by studying West Bengal, a very basic idea 796 00:37:17,090 --> 00:37:19,170 actually can be found. 797 00:37:19,170 --> 00:37:21,920 For example, the dry season in Bangladesh, 798 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,854 from January to May, it is same in West Bengal. 799 00:37:27,410 --> 00:37:30,160 And the wet season in Bangladesh, 800 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:35,360 which falls up to December, so from July to December, that 801 00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,090 is also same in both the parties. 802 00:37:38,090 --> 00:37:41,930 So the joint committee, they probably 803 00:37:41,930 --> 00:37:46,880 used some hydraulic models to actually set 804 00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:48,560 the amount of water. 805 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:54,260 For example, it is 70,000 cubics, the basic standard. 806 00:37:54,260 --> 00:38:02,171 The first one is if there is 70,000 cubic seconds-- 807 00:38:02,171 --> 00:38:05,690 the unit is cusec-- if 70,000 cusecs is there, 808 00:38:05,690 --> 00:38:09,450 both the countries will share 50-50%. 809 00:38:09,450 --> 00:38:11,600 So this is how they have made. 810 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:15,140 And from 70% to 75%, so there would be-- 811 00:38:15,140 --> 00:38:17,510 the balanced ratio would be for India. 812 00:38:17,510 --> 00:38:20,810 And Bangladesh would get a minimum 34,000 cusecs. 813 00:38:20,810 --> 00:38:23,270 And if it's 75 to-- 814 00:38:23,270 --> 00:38:29,120 75 and above, then the same kind of ratio is there. 815 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,193 So this much I know. 816 00:38:31,193 --> 00:38:32,360 AUDIENCE: Is there ongoing-- 817 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:33,902 for example, you mentioned that there 818 00:38:33,902 --> 00:38:37,373 have been years in which neither side has gotten the amounts 819 00:38:37,373 --> 00:38:38,540 that they've been allocated. 820 00:38:38,540 --> 00:38:41,300 Have there been any ongoing efforts 821 00:38:41,300 --> 00:38:44,660 to know, if there's under 70,000, 822 00:38:44,660 --> 00:38:48,140 to quantify how much is flowing? 823 00:38:48,140 --> 00:38:48,920 And how? 824 00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:49,837 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Yes. 825 00:38:49,837 --> 00:38:52,490 I think that Bangladesh, we have an agency-- 826 00:38:52,490 --> 00:38:55,250 Bangladesh Inland Water Authority-- 827 00:38:55,250 --> 00:38:57,050 we have Bangladesh Water Development Board. 828 00:38:57,050 --> 00:39:00,110 So they actually conduct some scientific studies. 829 00:39:00,110 --> 00:39:04,580 And based on those, I will be honest with you 830 00:39:04,580 --> 00:39:07,250 that the government organizations-- 831 00:39:07,250 --> 00:39:11,460 I mean, for example, the scientists 832 00:39:11,460 --> 00:39:15,420 who have that expertise, the Bangladesh-- 833 00:39:15,420 --> 00:39:18,240 those organizations are not really the most lucrative jobs 834 00:39:18,240 --> 00:39:19,180 for them. 835 00:39:19,180 --> 00:39:20,520 So we do what we can. 836 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,490 And sometimes, we bring foreign consultants. 837 00:39:23,490 --> 00:39:26,250 And with those, some studies are made. 838 00:39:26,250 --> 00:39:30,060 And based on that, actually, these sort of distributions 839 00:39:30,060 --> 00:39:30,690 are made. 840 00:39:30,690 --> 00:39:34,630 But then again, there are flaws in this study. 841 00:39:34,630 --> 00:39:38,280 DR. GAIN: Mashroof, I think in terms of measurement, 842 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,670 the joint river commission is-- 843 00:39:41,670 --> 00:39:45,510 so there is joint collaboration between India and Bangladesh. 844 00:39:45,510 --> 00:39:49,290 The Joint River Commission is responsible for measuring 845 00:39:49,290 --> 00:39:49,790 the things. 846 00:39:49,790 --> 00:39:53,130 So in terms of theory, both the Indian side, 847 00:39:53,130 --> 00:39:54,575 there is a Joint River Commission. 848 00:39:54,575 --> 00:39:55,950 And in the Bangladesh side, there 849 00:39:55,950 --> 00:39:58,080 is Joint River Commission. 850 00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,920 So both parties, in terms of theory, 851 00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:03,900 theoretically, they measure. 852 00:40:03,900 --> 00:40:08,940 And in terms of dry season river, they measure the flow. 853 00:40:08,940 --> 00:40:10,990 And they agree on that. 854 00:40:10,990 --> 00:40:12,813 So I think in terms of agreement, 855 00:40:12,813 --> 00:40:14,230 they do have these kind of things. 856 00:40:14,230 --> 00:40:17,970 But in reality, this kind of collaboration, 857 00:40:17,970 --> 00:40:21,930 although that exists, but this kind of enforcement is-- they 858 00:40:21,930 --> 00:40:26,700 rely only on the Indian side, that maybe they don't regularly 859 00:40:26,700 --> 00:40:29,400 go to the Farakka point to measure the things. 860 00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:34,410 But I think the way that Indian Joint River Commission 861 00:40:34,410 --> 00:40:36,780 communicate to the Bangladesh Joint Commission, 862 00:40:36,780 --> 00:40:38,960 they agree on that kind of measurement. 863 00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:40,423 So that's the idea. 864 00:40:40,423 --> 00:40:42,840 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: I was actually looking for some articles 865 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,500 whether the state water department-- 866 00:40:46,500 --> 00:40:49,890 I'm not sure that whether the Indian states have 867 00:40:49,890 --> 00:40:54,508 separate water departments or not, or whether it's federal. 868 00:40:54,508 --> 00:40:55,050 I'm not sure. 869 00:40:55,050 --> 00:40:57,090 So I'll try to find whether there 870 00:40:57,090 --> 00:41:00,550 is any collaboration between not only the state level, 871 00:41:00,550 --> 00:41:02,090 but also the-- 872 00:41:02,090 --> 00:41:06,600 not only the federal level, but also the West Bengal 873 00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,550 state and Bangladesh. 874 00:41:08,550 --> 00:41:12,270 But probably, I probably missed. 875 00:41:12,270 --> 00:41:17,080 I didn't find any such collaboration. 876 00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:18,970 DR. GAIN: So is there any other feedback 877 00:41:18,970 --> 00:41:24,946 that you would like to bring, like Anselmo or Hasnain? 878 00:41:28,980 --> 00:41:30,570 AUDIENCE: Mashroof, congratulation 879 00:41:30,570 --> 00:41:31,660 on the presentation. 880 00:41:31,660 --> 00:41:33,630 I learned a lot from you today. 881 00:41:33,630 --> 00:41:35,230 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much. 882 00:41:35,230 --> 00:41:37,147 AUDIENCE: Especially the visual was very rich, 883 00:41:37,147 --> 00:41:38,010 your presentation. 884 00:41:38,010 --> 00:41:39,570 I just have one quick suggestion, 885 00:41:39,570 --> 00:41:41,010 because you said that you are not 886 00:41:41,010 --> 00:41:43,380 going to mention a lot about the diplomacy 887 00:41:43,380 --> 00:41:46,050 because you are part of the government. 888 00:41:46,050 --> 00:41:48,615 But when you read the Larry's book, 889 00:41:48,615 --> 00:41:53,070 on the-- specific on the page 133, 890 00:41:53,070 --> 00:41:56,220 it mentions about the water management in the state 891 00:41:56,220 --> 00:41:59,700 hold the key approach to the conflict, 892 00:41:59,700 --> 00:42:01,620 using the traditional way. 893 00:42:01,620 --> 00:42:03,870 Or they can use the non-zero-sum approach. 894 00:42:03,870 --> 00:42:06,300 And I think that's very interesting, if you can 895 00:42:06,300 --> 00:42:08,282 include in your final paper. 896 00:42:08,282 --> 00:42:09,240 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Yeah. 897 00:42:09,240 --> 00:42:11,282 AUDIENCE: Specific when they talk about the water 898 00:42:11,282 --> 00:42:15,090 management, that's fall in two categories-- a higher 899 00:42:15,090 --> 00:42:18,420 authority can force a decision, or the other parties 900 00:42:18,420 --> 00:42:21,900 themselves can negotiate a settlement that formal talks 901 00:42:21,900 --> 00:42:23,370 helped to implement. 902 00:42:23,370 --> 00:42:25,950 I think this chapter is very interesting 903 00:42:25,950 --> 00:42:27,067 for your presentation. 904 00:42:27,067 --> 00:42:28,650 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much. 905 00:42:28,650 --> 00:42:30,942 I will look into that and I will try to incorporate it. 906 00:42:30,942 --> 00:42:33,390 AUDIENCE: It's on page 132, 133. 907 00:42:33,390 --> 00:42:36,060 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much. 908 00:42:36,060 --> 00:42:37,170 DR. GAIN: Yes. 909 00:42:37,170 --> 00:42:39,340 Yeah, Larry? 910 00:42:39,340 --> 00:42:41,890 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Thanks for the presentation. 911 00:42:41,890 --> 00:42:49,540 I'm hoping that you can synthesize the diplomacy 912 00:42:49,540 --> 00:42:53,720 discussion in the final version of the paper. 913 00:42:53,720 --> 00:43:01,960 And it would be wonderful if you had a one-page introduction 914 00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:08,080 to your discussion about diplomacy that highlighted 915 00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:18,420 two or three ideas about what new or different, with regard 916 00:43:18,420 --> 00:43:23,870 to diplomacy, that could be tried that hasn't been tried, 917 00:43:23,870 --> 00:43:27,290 without going into all the explanation 918 00:43:27,290 --> 00:43:31,340 in this summary of how this would be done, 919 00:43:31,340 --> 00:43:34,440 but to just highlight. 920 00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:36,510 You talking about bargaining chips, 921 00:43:36,510 --> 00:43:42,570 you're talking about linking other issues, it's a lot. 922 00:43:42,570 --> 00:43:46,510 Pick two or three things that you 923 00:43:46,510 --> 00:43:50,060 want to suggest that are new. 924 00:43:50,060 --> 00:43:53,180 And say, I think the focus should 925 00:43:53,180 --> 00:43:57,320 shift to involving all of the states 926 00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:01,360 and not just the national governments. 927 00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:02,020 OK? 928 00:44:02,020 --> 00:44:05,990 If that's one of your proposals, then 929 00:44:05,990 --> 00:44:13,930 state that as a new emphasis that 930 00:44:13,930 --> 00:44:16,780 might change the whole story. 931 00:44:16,780 --> 00:44:20,200 If you think, as Aaron was implying, 932 00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:25,600 that a new approach to joint measurement 933 00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:29,710 would provide timely and believable information 934 00:44:29,710 --> 00:44:34,180 in a different way, and that with that information, 935 00:44:34,180 --> 00:44:37,690 new joint management, under different sets 936 00:44:37,690 --> 00:44:41,680 of circumstances, would be improved even if the treaty 937 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:46,810 isn't changed, then say that. 938 00:44:46,810 --> 00:44:50,890 But not more than two or three ideas 939 00:44:50,890 --> 00:44:53,740 that could be expressed in a couple of sentences 940 00:44:53,740 --> 00:45:00,190 as the contribution to your discussion about diplomacy. 941 00:45:00,190 --> 00:45:03,310 Because otherwise, it's too much. 942 00:45:03,310 --> 00:45:08,110 It's impossible to follow all the different lines 943 00:45:08,110 --> 00:45:11,560 of diplomacy that are implied by the different maps, 944 00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,090 and the different bargaining chips, 945 00:45:13,090 --> 00:45:17,680 and the different relationships, and what might be done. 946 00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,470 And it's just too much. 947 00:45:20,470 --> 00:45:28,430 Just choose two, no more than three, but even those two ideas 948 00:45:28,430 --> 00:45:35,000 about changed diplomacy and highlight those, OK? 949 00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:38,120 I know that you have lots of other stuff. 950 00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:41,420 I think for the paper, the power of the paper 951 00:45:41,420 --> 00:45:46,550 will be improved if you zero in on just a couple 952 00:45:46,550 --> 00:45:51,680 of ideas about changes in the diplomacy going forward that 953 00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:57,170 haven't been given enough or the right attention in the past. 954 00:45:57,170 --> 00:45:58,920 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Professor, in that case, 955 00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:05,510 maybe I will try to speak about the one point that I say. 956 00:46:05,510 --> 00:46:09,980 Maybe instead of three or two, I will just focus on one. 957 00:46:09,980 --> 00:46:15,800 That is the bargaining chips, the alternate bargaining chips. 958 00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,210 Maybe I can choose just this one and go deeper on that. 959 00:46:18,210 --> 00:46:18,960 What do you think? 960 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,100 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I think that there are different bargaining 961 00:46:22,100 --> 00:46:26,360 chips that are more or less attractive to one 962 00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,280 country or another. 963 00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:32,360 And that instead of saying bargaining chips is one thing-- 964 00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,610 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: I would specify the bargaining chip. 965 00:46:34,610 --> 00:46:35,970 Pick one bargaining chip and go deeper on that. 966 00:46:35,970 --> 00:46:37,262 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Which ones? 967 00:46:37,262 --> 00:46:40,970 I mean, I thought the idea that you have all these states, 968 00:46:40,970 --> 00:46:44,900 they're not happy with their own national government, 969 00:46:44,900 --> 00:46:49,280 it's possible that a negotiation involving those states 970 00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,830 could change what gets talked about, 971 00:46:51,830 --> 00:46:54,980 and shift the balance of power, and provide 972 00:46:54,980 --> 00:47:00,200 an opportunity for sub-regional piece of the treaty 973 00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:01,520 to go ahead. 974 00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,800 So that's about bargaining chips. 975 00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:07,460 But it's about the involvement of sub-national units 976 00:47:07,460 --> 00:47:11,300 on the India side and why their involvement 977 00:47:11,300 --> 00:47:12,900 could make a difference. 978 00:47:12,900 --> 00:47:17,210 So I'm really saying, don't just talk 979 00:47:17,210 --> 00:47:20,600 about things at the level of bargaining chips. 980 00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,130 It's too broad. 981 00:47:22,130 --> 00:47:23,210 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Pick. 982 00:47:23,210 --> 00:47:26,360 AUDIENCE: Pick a couple of bargaining chips that you think 983 00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:30,500 are most promising and say who should do what 984 00:47:30,500 --> 00:47:33,290 with this new bargaining chip that 985 00:47:33,290 --> 00:47:36,170 might lead to either a new treaty, 986 00:47:36,170 --> 00:47:41,710 or better administration of the existing treaty, 987 00:47:41,710 --> 00:47:46,810 or a completely different kind of treaty. 988 00:47:46,810 --> 00:47:49,310 I mean, not-- keep the one you have. 989 00:47:49,310 --> 00:47:53,350 And in addition, adopt maybe a new treaty 990 00:47:53,350 --> 00:47:56,230 about this additional river. 991 00:47:56,230 --> 00:47:58,630 Maybe that's what opens things. 992 00:47:58,630 --> 00:48:01,540 But take specific bargaining chips 993 00:48:01,540 --> 00:48:04,270 and make them into your recommendations. 994 00:48:04,270 --> 00:48:05,110 OK? 995 00:48:05,110 --> 00:48:05,680 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: OK, professor. 996 00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:06,530 Thank you. 997 00:48:06,530 --> 00:48:09,580 DR. GAIN: Yeah, so in line with Larry's suggestion, 998 00:48:09,580 --> 00:48:12,040 so my suggestion would be-- 999 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:17,050 so you mentioned only the state versus state diplomacy. 1000 00:48:17,050 --> 00:48:24,310 But you know, the India's water resource responsibility 1001 00:48:24,310 --> 00:48:26,110 is given to the state-- 1002 00:48:26,110 --> 00:48:27,400 I mean, not federal state. 1003 00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:33,430 So more most of the water power is given to the state-- 1004 00:48:33,430 --> 00:48:36,850 I mean, West Bengal state has the power for managing water 1005 00:48:36,850 --> 00:48:39,220 resources in the West Bengal. 1006 00:48:39,220 --> 00:48:42,940 So the central government cannot intervene anything regarding 1007 00:48:42,940 --> 00:48:46,770 the decision of the West Bengal's water resources 1008 00:48:46,770 --> 00:48:47,270 issues. 1009 00:48:47,270 --> 00:48:52,120 So in that case, one of the key stakeholders 1010 00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:53,380 would be the West Bengal. 1011 00:48:53,380 --> 00:48:58,630 And I mean, how the Teesta water treaty 1012 00:48:58,630 --> 00:49:01,948 didn't work although the central government was-- 1013 00:49:01,948 --> 00:49:02,990 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Agreed. 1014 00:49:02,990 --> 00:49:05,073 DR. GAIN: --agreed with the Bangladesh government. 1015 00:49:05,073 --> 00:49:09,630 But because of the West Bengal government, it didn't happen. 1016 00:49:09,630 --> 00:49:15,040 So I think this, as Larry mentioned, we can incorporate, 1017 00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:22,030 or you can incorporate the state as stakeholders. 1018 00:49:22,030 --> 00:49:24,520 Maybe that can also important. 1019 00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,950 And I think that is essential, not important, 1020 00:49:26,950 --> 00:49:30,460 because without the state, you cannot negotiate with 1021 00:49:30,460 --> 00:49:33,200 the central government. 1022 00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:34,600 So this is on point. 1023 00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,570 And in terms of identifying issues, 1024 00:49:37,570 --> 00:49:42,550 already, if you ask some of the peoples, key peoples, 1025 00:49:42,550 --> 00:49:45,670 then it would be easier for you. 1026 00:49:45,670 --> 00:49:48,040 So you already identified several key issues. 1027 00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:52,210 One of the issues is Bangladesh is concerned regarding 1028 00:49:52,210 --> 00:49:55,930 the climate change and its impact on the future river 1029 00:49:55,930 --> 00:49:56,900 flow. 1030 00:49:56,900 --> 00:49:59,750 And so this is one of the key aspects. 1031 00:49:59,750 --> 00:50:03,250 But also, other aspect for the [INAUDIBLE],, 1032 00:50:03,250 --> 00:50:06,820 you already mentioned incorporating how the Seven 1033 00:50:06,820 --> 00:50:13,750 Sisters and the transit Bangladesh can help achieving 1034 00:50:13,750 --> 00:50:16,030 this-- 1035 00:50:16,030 --> 00:50:22,690 the new water treaty that incorporates 1036 00:50:22,690 --> 00:50:25,550 ensuring future river flow. 1037 00:50:25,550 --> 00:50:28,840 But also, the last few years, there 1038 00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:34,420 was a discussion for developing barrage in the Ganges 1039 00:50:34,420 --> 00:50:39,130 within the Bangladesh part, which India denied 1040 00:50:39,130 --> 00:50:40,750 and which India opposed. 1041 00:50:40,750 --> 00:50:43,480 And that plan has been halt. 1042 00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:44,980 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: The deep sea base. 1043 00:50:44,980 --> 00:50:46,510 The deep sea base. 1044 00:50:46,510 --> 00:50:48,323 DR. GAIN: Not deep sea, barrage in the-- 1045 00:50:48,323 --> 00:50:49,990 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Oh, the barrage, yeah. 1046 00:50:49,990 --> 00:50:52,990 DR. GAIN: Yeah, the freshwater flow barrage 1047 00:50:52,990 --> 00:50:59,830 in the Bangladesh to a store freshwater for southwest part 1048 00:50:59,830 --> 00:51:01,070 of the Bangladesh. 1049 00:51:01,070 --> 00:51:03,910 So this kind of option creation can 1050 00:51:03,910 --> 00:51:07,460 be helpful for treaty negotiations. 1051 00:51:07,460 --> 00:51:11,110 So I believe, if you can ask some of the peoples 1052 00:51:11,110 --> 00:51:14,180 that I already mentioned to you, if you interview them, 1053 00:51:14,180 --> 00:51:17,410 I think you can have much more insight for the paper. 1054 00:51:17,410 --> 00:51:20,380 You might not consider them, given the time limit. 1055 00:51:20,380 --> 00:51:22,510 But as Larry mentioned, if you consider 1056 00:51:22,510 --> 00:51:25,780 only two or three specific points that 1057 00:51:25,780 --> 00:51:28,900 can be helpful for incorporating-- so one 1058 00:51:28,900 --> 00:51:30,280 could be the climate change. 1059 00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:34,510 Other could be the engaging stakeholders, like state-level 1060 00:51:34,510 --> 00:51:40,120 stakeholders and interacting with the Seven Sisters 1061 00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,340 state for the transit and how this 1062 00:51:42,340 --> 00:51:47,080 can help treaty negotiations. 1063 00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:51,050 These are specific aspects you can consider. 1064 00:51:51,050 --> 00:51:52,920 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much.