1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,972 [SQUEAKING] 2 00:00:01,972 --> 00:00:04,437 [RUSTLING] 3 00:00:04,437 --> 00:00:05,916 [CLICKING] 4 00:00:20,828 --> 00:00:23,120 PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right, so what we're calling this, 5 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,940 the enabling conditions hypothesis. 6 00:00:24,940 --> 00:00:27,250 I did send you an op ed that was published, 7 00:00:27,250 --> 00:00:29,650 I think, about two years ago in a newspaper 8 00:00:29,650 --> 00:00:33,110 in Bangladesh called "Neither necessary nor sufficient." 9 00:00:33,110 --> 00:00:34,930 So this is what the idea was. 10 00:00:34,930 --> 00:00:36,790 "Neither necessary not sufficient-- three 11 00:00:36,790 --> 00:00:39,310 enabling conditions for effective transboundary water 12 00:00:39,310 --> 00:00:40,510 management." 13 00:00:40,510 --> 00:00:43,210 So I started with this idea that does life cause death? 14 00:00:43,210 --> 00:00:44,620 Does oxygen cause fire? 15 00:00:44,620 --> 00:00:46,630 Does rain cause flood? 16 00:00:46,630 --> 00:00:48,190 What it means, essentially, then, 17 00:00:48,190 --> 00:00:50,050 if you look at these three questions going 18 00:00:50,050 --> 00:00:53,590 from very philosophical point of view, that life cause death, 19 00:00:53,590 --> 00:00:56,850 of course, you need life before you can die. 20 00:00:56,850 --> 00:01:00,480 Just because if you are not alive, you cannot die, 21 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:02,580 but does it cause it? 22 00:01:02,580 --> 00:01:05,340 The same thing with oxygen. Will oxygen-- 23 00:01:05,340 --> 00:01:07,910 does it cause fire? 24 00:01:07,910 --> 00:01:08,890 Why is this important? 25 00:01:08,890 --> 00:01:10,640 Because right now, I'm sitting in my room. 26 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:15,620 I have oxygen, but there's no fire. 27 00:01:15,620 --> 00:01:18,860 But think about the situation really about maybe 5,000 years 28 00:01:18,860 --> 00:01:21,450 ago, when we did not know about all of this, 29 00:01:21,450 --> 00:01:26,560 and we had a lot of fire in many different places. 30 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,890 Then you are a scientifically minded individual, 31 00:01:29,890 --> 00:01:32,530 you went and measure everywhere, and you 32 00:01:32,530 --> 00:01:37,590 find that, in every place there is a fire, there is oxygen. 33 00:01:37,590 --> 00:01:39,630 So then you have a theory now. 34 00:01:39,630 --> 00:01:42,472 That theory tells you oxygen cause fire. 35 00:01:42,472 --> 00:01:44,930 It's a good theory because I don't think-- basically, think 36 00:01:44,930 --> 00:01:46,490 about it 5,000 years ago. 37 00:01:46,490 --> 00:01:48,350 I did not know any of this chemistry. 38 00:01:48,350 --> 00:01:51,050 I did not know oxygen. But I found out 39 00:01:51,050 --> 00:01:53,690 certain things are present in all situations when 40 00:01:53,690 --> 00:01:56,190 there is fire. 41 00:01:56,190 --> 00:01:57,980 So now, I am basically very brilliant. 42 00:01:57,980 --> 00:01:59,270 I came up with the theory-- 43 00:01:59,270 --> 00:02:00,410 oxygen cause fire. 44 00:02:03,710 --> 00:02:06,860 So this is the fundamental problem of cause and effect, 45 00:02:06,860 --> 00:02:12,770 or observing certain things by observing certain other things 46 00:02:12,770 --> 00:02:13,850 and trying to link them. 47 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,000 So what I argue that this is really fundamentally 48 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,380 what scientific methods are all about. 49 00:02:23,380 --> 00:02:27,180 You take observations, then you formulate a hypothesis, 50 00:02:27,180 --> 00:02:30,960 and then you test it, and then you refine it. 51 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,090 So now, if you are 5,000 years ago, 52 00:02:33,090 --> 00:02:38,010 then how do you know that oxygen is not causing the fire? 53 00:02:38,010 --> 00:02:39,090 What do you have to do? 54 00:02:41,920 --> 00:02:44,560 This is where this idea of necessary sufficient conditions 55 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,240 become extremely problematic. 56 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:52,757 In this particular case, now you know that, for example, 57 00:02:52,757 --> 00:02:55,090 in my room right now, I'm sitting here, there is oxygen, 58 00:02:55,090 --> 00:02:57,000 but there's no fire. 59 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,090 So that means, why it's not there? 60 00:03:00,090 --> 00:03:05,558 [INAUDIBLE] is necessary, but not sufficient. 61 00:03:05,558 --> 00:03:06,600 What is sufficient, then? 62 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:08,700 You need to have some trigger. 63 00:03:08,700 --> 00:03:11,310 If you have a trigger, then it will start fires. 64 00:03:11,310 --> 00:03:17,600 We will now start basically-- put some fire here, maybe 65 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:19,580 with a candle or something that makes 66 00:03:19,580 --> 00:03:22,380 my house may get into fire. 67 00:03:22,380 --> 00:03:24,250 So there's the distinction we need to make, 68 00:03:24,250 --> 00:03:28,500 but this is, right now, may seem very obvious. 69 00:03:28,500 --> 00:03:31,140 But when you get into the messiness 70 00:03:31,140 --> 00:03:32,970 of the transboundary water management 71 00:03:32,970 --> 00:03:35,830 or other complex problems, there are many, 72 00:03:35,830 --> 00:03:39,090 many causes can create an outcome. 73 00:03:39,090 --> 00:03:42,360 Many, many causes can create something that you see. 74 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,460 So fire is what you see. 75 00:03:44,460 --> 00:03:47,820 Then you try to attribute some cause, 76 00:03:47,820 --> 00:03:50,370 and then you get into this idea of necessary and sufficient 77 00:03:50,370 --> 00:03:51,790 conditions. 78 00:03:51,790 --> 00:03:54,150 What we are arguing really, in complexity, 79 00:03:54,150 --> 00:03:58,500 that no, in complexity, problems are the problems 80 00:03:58,500 --> 00:04:04,470 which are complex, where many, many variables and actors 81 00:04:04,470 --> 00:04:07,500 and institutions are interacting with each other. 82 00:04:07,500 --> 00:04:13,380 You simply cannot isolate cause and effect very cleanly. 83 00:04:13,380 --> 00:04:16,260 There are causes, of course, but those are not 84 00:04:16,260 --> 00:04:18,240 easily identifiable. 85 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,579 As a result, you get into trouble. 86 00:04:20,579 --> 00:04:21,690 What happens, really? 87 00:04:21,690 --> 00:04:24,360 You may identify something as cause, 88 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,840 then very quickly you find out that is not the case. 89 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:31,330 And you are seeing this with COVID-19 over the last 14 90 00:04:31,330 --> 00:04:32,590 months. 91 00:04:32,590 --> 00:04:34,605 We have attributed to many, many things 92 00:04:34,605 --> 00:04:35,980 there's a causal conditions, then 93 00:04:35,980 --> 00:04:38,080 later on, we found out they may not be. 94 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,780 And we even found out that all kinds of solutions, 95 00:04:40,780 --> 00:04:44,710 starting from using bleach from our president, 96 00:04:44,710 --> 00:04:48,880 but these are all essentially just trying 97 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,120 to relate some arbitrarily linked things. 98 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:53,890 And in the simplest case, people would 99 00:04:53,890 --> 00:04:57,570 say that there are some correlation maybe. 100 00:04:57,570 --> 00:05:00,520 And you know the correlation is not causation, but that's-- 101 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,400 we said this is very cliche. 102 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:04,230 We're not interested. 103 00:05:04,230 --> 00:05:08,160 We are fundamentally challenging this idea of cause and effect, 104 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:12,360 that you simply cannot identify cause and effect very cleanly 105 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,400 as you can in some other cases. 106 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:17,610 Even in the simplest case, does rain cause flood? 107 00:05:20,570 --> 00:05:22,100 And one of us said, yes. 108 00:05:22,100 --> 00:05:23,195 Yes, it does. 109 00:05:23,195 --> 00:05:26,390 In most cases, it does, but in many cases, it do not. 110 00:05:26,390 --> 00:05:28,090 So think of, really, in Boston, it 111 00:05:28,090 --> 00:05:30,380 was not raining for the last several days. 112 00:05:30,380 --> 00:05:32,270 Now, if it rains one inch, there'll 113 00:05:32,270 --> 00:05:34,760 be no flood because most of the water 114 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,150 will essentially infiltrate and go to the ground. 115 00:05:38,150 --> 00:05:42,860 Now, if it rains for three days in a row, yes, basically, 116 00:05:42,860 --> 00:05:44,420 soil will get saturated. 117 00:05:44,420 --> 00:05:47,370 You'll get flood. 118 00:05:47,370 --> 00:05:49,270 So that means you need some conditions. 119 00:05:49,270 --> 00:05:51,150 So here, rain is a necessary condition, 120 00:05:51,150 --> 00:05:54,260 but it's not a sufficient condition. 121 00:05:54,260 --> 00:05:56,080 The problem of this type of analysis 122 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:57,850 really came if you go back now. 123 00:05:57,850 --> 00:06:00,910 Where is this idea of necessary and sufficient came? 124 00:06:00,910 --> 00:06:03,880 So I did dig basically deeper into this. 125 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,310 It came from geometry. 126 00:06:07,310 --> 00:06:10,190 In geometry, it is very precise because I 127 00:06:10,190 --> 00:06:15,000 need to have four sides to have a rectangle, 128 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:16,960 and with 90 degree angle. 129 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,170 I need to have three sides to have a triangle. 130 00:06:19,170 --> 00:06:22,070 There is no way around it. 131 00:06:22,070 --> 00:06:24,440 So I can explicitly say, what are 132 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,660 the necessary and sufficient conditions for something 133 00:06:26,660 --> 00:06:29,580 to be considered a triangle? 134 00:06:29,580 --> 00:06:33,660 That is not the case for many physical systems. 135 00:06:33,660 --> 00:06:36,060 More importantly, many coupled systems, 136 00:06:36,060 --> 00:06:39,180 like where you have natural systems and human systems, 137 00:06:39,180 --> 00:06:41,680 like our transboundary water problem, where 138 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,560 you have natural systems, so water 139 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,590 is getting coupled with the human systems of managing 140 00:06:46,590 --> 00:06:48,030 it and governing it. 141 00:06:48,030 --> 00:06:51,030 When they're coupled, the systems become complex. 142 00:06:51,030 --> 00:06:53,580 This notion of necessary and sufficient conditions 143 00:06:53,580 --> 00:06:56,140 are not good enough. 144 00:06:56,140 --> 00:06:58,240 So I'll stop here just to give you pause. 145 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,150 See what you think about this distinction 146 00:07:01,150 --> 00:07:03,790 between necessary sufficient conditions. 147 00:07:03,790 --> 00:07:05,830 Then we'll go into enabling conditions. 148 00:07:08,157 --> 00:07:09,740 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I presume we don't 149 00:07:09,740 --> 00:07:16,990 have to wait 5,000 years to make judgments about such things, 150 00:07:16,990 --> 00:07:22,120 and I'm interested in how you think 151 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:29,230 we know enough to say that's only correlation, that's 152 00:07:29,230 --> 00:07:31,780 not causation. 153 00:07:31,780 --> 00:07:33,370 And is it really-- 154 00:07:33,370 --> 00:07:38,260 could it be a function of time and perspective and experience, 155 00:07:38,260 --> 00:07:42,565 and that there's not really a method to know that quickly? 156 00:07:46,022 --> 00:07:47,980 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yes, we'll get into something. 157 00:07:47,980 --> 00:07:50,080 Basically, I did not have a chance 158 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:51,290 to discuss this with you. 159 00:07:51,290 --> 00:07:54,460 So we are basically making distinctions now 160 00:07:54,460 --> 00:07:57,340 between two types of facts, and this is part of the discussion 161 00:07:57,340 --> 00:07:58,880 that we have today. 162 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,270 So one thing that, over time, that we 163 00:08:01,270 --> 00:08:03,910 have learned this idea of scientific method 164 00:08:03,910 --> 00:08:05,950 and scientific facts. 165 00:08:05,950 --> 00:08:08,530 Another thing that basically we are [INAUDIBLE] 166 00:08:08,530 --> 00:08:10,660 has been used in social science for quite some time 167 00:08:10,660 --> 00:08:13,280 called social facts. 168 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,340 And we are making a sharper distinction between these two 169 00:08:16,340 --> 00:08:20,660 right now, so what I argue really in this particular case, 170 00:08:20,660 --> 00:08:23,870 that scientific facts are basically 171 00:08:23,870 --> 00:08:25,970 a particular type of facts. 172 00:08:25,970 --> 00:08:32,659 Those facts are verifiable, reproducible, replicable. 173 00:08:32,659 --> 00:08:35,870 Those will not depend on daily perspective or notion. 174 00:08:35,870 --> 00:08:38,130 They may depend on matters over time, 175 00:08:38,130 --> 00:08:40,267 but there is a way to get around this. 176 00:08:40,267 --> 00:08:42,059 That's the whole idea of scientific method, 177 00:08:42,059 --> 00:08:43,190 so we'll talk about that. 178 00:08:43,190 --> 00:08:47,820 Social fact, on the other hand, does not have to be true. 179 00:08:47,820 --> 00:08:49,820 Does not even have to be verifiable. 180 00:08:49,820 --> 00:08:52,280 It's just, we believe. 181 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,380 It's just that we accept it as reality. 182 00:08:55,380 --> 00:08:57,950 And that is fine, too, and we have done many of these. 183 00:08:57,950 --> 00:09:04,780 For example, this whole idea of currency is a social fact. 184 00:09:04,780 --> 00:09:06,990 We give tremendous amount of value 185 00:09:06,990 --> 00:09:09,510 now to this something green called dollar, 186 00:09:09,510 --> 00:09:12,440 and whether I'm in Bangladesh or in Boston doesn't matter. 187 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:13,890 Everybody accepts it. 188 00:09:13,890 --> 00:09:19,080 Whether they believe in me, whether I am a atheist 189 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:23,590 or I'm agnostic or I am Muslim does not matter. 190 00:09:23,590 --> 00:09:25,290 You accept it that this is something 191 00:09:25,290 --> 00:09:27,007 that everybody thinks is good. 192 00:09:27,007 --> 00:09:28,590 And now, think about what is happening 193 00:09:28,590 --> 00:09:30,120 with the Iranian currency. 194 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,580 It has been significantly devalued 195 00:09:32,580 --> 00:09:35,410 because of all this embargo that we have created. 196 00:09:35,410 --> 00:09:39,270 So that is really a paper, and that paper 197 00:09:39,270 --> 00:09:41,880 has certain value because everybody in the world 198 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,910 thinks the dollar is very valuable. 199 00:09:44,910 --> 00:09:46,620 This is social fact, and there is no way 200 00:09:46,620 --> 00:09:48,540 to justify whether this is true or not. 201 00:09:48,540 --> 00:09:50,130 It is true right now. 202 00:09:50,130 --> 00:09:52,650 I can use it anywhere I want, but I do not 203 00:09:52,650 --> 00:09:55,803 know what will happen to this really 10 years from now. 204 00:09:55,803 --> 00:09:57,720 So those are the distinctions we need to make, 205 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,760 and we will make those distinctions when 206 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,340 we are talking about scientific fact and social fact. 207 00:10:02,340 --> 00:10:06,900 In this particular case of your fire 208 00:10:06,900 --> 00:10:11,060 can be basically determined by scientific method 209 00:10:11,060 --> 00:10:12,310 because what can we do really? 210 00:10:12,310 --> 00:10:14,620 Even 5,000 years, we didn't have to go that far. 211 00:10:14,620 --> 00:10:20,060 We can find out really that, although oxygen is necessary, 212 00:10:20,060 --> 00:10:21,820 it does not create fire everywhere. 213 00:10:21,820 --> 00:10:24,350 So that means something else has to happen, 214 00:10:24,350 --> 00:10:26,740 so that is a systematic way of doing experiments 215 00:10:26,740 --> 00:10:29,120 and then to find that out. 216 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,910 But I have seen few places where there is fire there is oxygen, 217 00:10:32,910 --> 00:10:36,380 so my immediate conclusion could be that oxygen causes fire. 218 00:10:36,380 --> 00:10:40,408 Then there has to be question, and we find over time. 219 00:10:40,408 --> 00:10:41,700 So let's go with this enabling. 220 00:10:41,700 --> 00:10:43,320 So what we are saying here, that we 221 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,480 need three enabling conditions, and I 222 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,450 was careful not to use this idea of necessary and sufficient 223 00:10:48,450 --> 00:10:48,985 anymore. 224 00:10:48,985 --> 00:10:50,610 So three enabling conditions are needed 225 00:10:50,610 --> 00:10:53,700 for any boundary crossing complex water agreement 226 00:10:53,700 --> 00:10:56,640 to be initiated, implemented, and sustained. 227 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,460 So this is a very big claim we're making here. 228 00:10:59,460 --> 00:11:01,470 So whether you are working with the Indus treaty 229 00:11:01,470 --> 00:11:04,530 or you are working with Ganges, what we are saying then, 230 00:11:04,530 --> 00:11:08,130 Mashroof, if you want to be basically writing your Ganges 231 00:11:08,130 --> 00:11:11,670 treaty for 2026, yeah, we want to do it. 232 00:11:11,670 --> 00:11:14,720 We need to be very careful about these three conditions. 233 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:16,470 You may say no, no, I need something else. 234 00:11:16,470 --> 00:11:18,000 Then we'll talk about this. 235 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,490 But what I am saying that, at least these three are needed. 236 00:11:21,490 --> 00:11:23,290 So what are these three? 237 00:11:23,290 --> 00:11:25,740 The first one is there has to be an active recognition 238 00:11:25,740 --> 00:11:29,970 of interdependencies, meaning that if you need 239 00:11:29,970 --> 00:11:33,450 to sign a Ganges treaty between India and Bangladesh, 240 00:11:33,450 --> 00:11:37,500 they have to actively recognize interdependencies. 241 00:11:37,500 --> 00:11:40,260 India has to recognize that Bangladesh exists, 242 00:11:40,260 --> 00:11:42,090 and they need them. 243 00:11:42,090 --> 00:11:44,948 Just saying that because India is upstream, 244 00:11:44,948 --> 00:11:45,990 Bangladesh is downstream. 245 00:11:45,990 --> 00:11:49,200 Of course, there is already interdependency there, 246 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:50,915 but that's not good enough. 247 00:11:50,915 --> 00:11:53,040 What is happening right now, if you think about it, 248 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:57,150 like Animesh, and we worked on a little bit with Brahmaputra, 249 00:11:57,150 --> 00:11:59,280 Brahmaputra is creating serious problems 250 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:04,000 between China and India, but there is no active recognition 251 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,470 right now. 252 00:12:05,470 --> 00:12:07,960 China, India, although they're independent, 253 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:09,850 is saying that you are using our water, 254 00:12:09,850 --> 00:12:11,780 and we are in serious trouble. 255 00:12:11,780 --> 00:12:16,510 But they have never, so far, actively recognized this. 256 00:12:16,510 --> 00:12:18,640 As a result, really, what we argued that, no, 257 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,860 I don't think they're going to go to any treaty. 258 00:12:20,860 --> 00:12:23,050 And they are not right now, although there 259 00:12:23,050 --> 00:12:25,650 is a lot of noise, a lot of discussion, 260 00:12:25,650 --> 00:12:28,840 a lot of international forum, international funding 261 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,590 agency trying to find out what is going on in Brahmaputra. 262 00:12:32,590 --> 00:12:35,710 What I'm arguing that I'm yet to see anything that 263 00:12:35,710 --> 00:12:38,440 is tangible happening in the Brahmaputra, 264 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,860 so if you have to ask me, these are dangerous game to play. 265 00:12:41,860 --> 00:12:44,110 In terms of prediction, there would not 266 00:12:44,110 --> 00:12:49,270 be a Brahmaputra treaty signed unless this recognition is 267 00:12:49,270 --> 00:12:54,740 active between China and India, and that 268 00:12:54,740 --> 00:12:57,210 is exactly what happened really if you look at Indus Water 269 00:12:57,210 --> 00:12:57,710 Treaty. 270 00:12:57,710 --> 00:13:02,510 Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India 271 00:13:02,510 --> 00:13:05,450 because they actively recognized that this is important. 272 00:13:05,450 --> 00:13:09,140 About the same time, President Johnson from the US 273 00:13:09,140 --> 00:13:13,310 sent another envoy to Israel and Palistine 274 00:13:13,310 --> 00:13:15,200 to have Jordan treaty. 275 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,120 Jordan treaty was not signed until 1994. 276 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,080 So why one was signed in 1969, another was in 1994? 277 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:32,533 In both cases, US was basically a significant player. 278 00:13:32,533 --> 00:13:34,200 So you need to think about those treaty. 279 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:38,570 Then I say, yeah, look, at that time, they did not recognize. 280 00:13:38,570 --> 00:13:43,120 Jordan did not recognize Israel is important or vice versa. 281 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,360 So as a result, it took a long time. 282 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,490 In 1994, they came, and basically, they 283 00:13:47,490 --> 00:13:48,510 signed the peace treaty. 284 00:13:48,510 --> 00:13:51,700 Part of that was a water treaty, too. 285 00:13:51,700 --> 00:13:54,220 So you just think about those two cases between Indus 286 00:13:54,220 --> 00:13:56,800 and Jordan, then you get some clue really 287 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,100 what this enabling condition 1 means. 288 00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:02,650 Second one is that, I'm sure you've talked about this, 289 00:14:02,650 --> 00:14:05,060 mutual value creation. 290 00:14:05,060 --> 00:14:07,900 So just because you've recognized the problem, 291 00:14:07,900 --> 00:14:10,100 and you have a conflict, is not good enough. 292 00:14:10,100 --> 00:14:11,800 Now, you have to see, really, can you 293 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,250 create some mutual value through negotiation 294 00:14:15,250 --> 00:14:16,630 that both parties will benefit? 295 00:14:19,580 --> 00:14:23,460 Because otherwise, you have limited amount of water, 296 00:14:23,460 --> 00:14:25,220 and you have no way to divide this. 297 00:14:25,220 --> 00:14:27,680 And your actual need is much more 298 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,720 than what is actually available, then 299 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,032 how do you get around this? 300 00:14:32,032 --> 00:14:33,740 So only way then you can get around this, 301 00:14:33,740 --> 00:14:35,570 if you create some mutual value, and then 302 00:14:35,570 --> 00:14:37,050 you can do it many different ways, 303 00:14:37,050 --> 00:14:40,790 I'm sure Larry and Animesh has given you ideas of, 304 00:14:40,790 --> 00:14:42,770 really, how to create mutual values. 305 00:14:42,770 --> 00:14:44,240 How do you connect different type 306 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,460 of sectors and different resources, and so on? 307 00:14:47,460 --> 00:14:49,280 You don't have to talk about water only. 308 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:50,300 You can bring in food. 309 00:14:50,300 --> 00:14:51,560 You can bring in energy. 310 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:52,970 You can bring in security. 311 00:14:52,970 --> 00:14:55,340 You can bring in military power. 312 00:14:55,340 --> 00:14:57,950 All kinds of things can be done. 313 00:14:57,950 --> 00:15:01,190 DR. GAIN: So to discuss these things, 314 00:15:01,190 --> 00:15:05,600 if we consider this Ganges example, 315 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,570 we already had the Ganges treaty, but in my view, 316 00:15:09,570 --> 00:15:15,500 this mutual value creation didn't happen until now. 317 00:15:15,500 --> 00:15:18,000 But already the treaty has been signed. 318 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,570 So what do you say about that? 319 00:15:20,570 --> 00:15:25,220 Although this enabling condition didn't meet, 320 00:15:25,220 --> 00:15:30,840 but there is a treaty or negotiation? 321 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,340 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Notice the EC here, 322 00:15:32,340 --> 00:15:35,040 we said the initiative implemented and sustained. 323 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:35,700 DR. GAIN: Yeah. 324 00:15:35,700 --> 00:15:37,408 PROFESSOR ISLAM:: So yes, you can have it 325 00:15:37,408 --> 00:15:39,150 because you have it for-- 326 00:15:39,150 --> 00:15:41,790 basically, all the mutual value fully was not done, 327 00:15:41,790 --> 00:15:43,498 but it was done partly. 328 00:15:43,498 --> 00:15:44,790 There were certain things done. 329 00:15:44,790 --> 00:15:47,940 For example, Bangladesh could have told India 330 00:15:47,940 --> 00:15:51,690 that, look, if we want to have this treaty now, 331 00:15:51,690 --> 00:15:54,860 you want transit, we'll give you transit. 332 00:15:54,860 --> 00:15:57,590 So India wanted transit really from, basically, 333 00:15:57,590 --> 00:15:59,660 to go through Bangladesh to Tripura. 334 00:15:59,660 --> 00:16:01,620 See, they want to do this, said let's do this. 335 00:16:01,620 --> 00:16:04,700 The Bangladesh trying to do this Ganges barrage now, 336 00:16:04,700 --> 00:16:08,570 so for Ganges barrage, India may get flooded a little bit. 337 00:16:08,570 --> 00:16:11,703 Can that be brought into the picture? 338 00:16:11,703 --> 00:16:13,120 So the issue is that basically you 339 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:14,590 have to bring in other issues. 340 00:16:14,590 --> 00:16:18,010 Those are now basically being discussed in Bangladesh 341 00:16:18,010 --> 00:16:18,850 right now. 342 00:16:18,850 --> 00:16:21,400 If you think about what is the particular problem 343 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:26,620 with the Ganges, Ganges is not a problem for the flood season. 344 00:16:26,620 --> 00:16:29,070 The problem is really the dry season. 345 00:16:29,070 --> 00:16:30,940 See, in the dry season, the flow goes 346 00:16:30,940 --> 00:16:36,010 down so low that we have serious issues of water shortage. 347 00:16:36,010 --> 00:16:38,210 So take a hypothetical example-- 348 00:16:38,210 --> 00:16:40,480 if you take the entire water, basically 349 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,930 during the dry season, it's about 4,000 [INAUDIBLE].. 350 00:16:43,930 --> 00:16:48,130 Still, it would not be good enough to keep the Kolkata port 351 00:16:48,130 --> 00:16:49,090 navigable. 352 00:16:49,090 --> 00:16:52,060 One of the primary reasons that India wanted to build 353 00:16:52,060 --> 00:16:56,260 the Farakka barrage was to keep Kolkata port navigable, 354 00:16:56,260 --> 00:17:00,190 but in the dry season, the flow goes so low, it still cannot-- 355 00:17:00,190 --> 00:17:02,000 even they have taken all the water. 356 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,869 So that means they have to come up with alternative sources. 357 00:17:04,869 --> 00:17:07,420 Can they use ground water? 358 00:17:07,420 --> 00:17:11,530 Can this basically store water during the flood season 359 00:17:11,530 --> 00:17:13,359 over extended period of the river? 360 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,140 That is what Bangladesh proposed in the Ganges barrage. 361 00:17:17,140 --> 00:17:21,010 So this is a over 50 mile river that will 362 00:17:21,010 --> 00:17:23,770 be using as a storage device. 363 00:17:23,770 --> 00:17:25,780 Because Bangladesh is a very flat country, 364 00:17:25,780 --> 00:17:28,030 we cannot create another dam. 365 00:17:28,030 --> 00:17:31,090 So that's another mutual value creation 366 00:17:31,090 --> 00:17:33,312 option can be explored. 367 00:17:33,312 --> 00:17:35,270 AUDIENCE: Let me ask you a question, professor. 368 00:17:35,270 --> 00:17:36,838 PROFESSOR: Please. 369 00:17:36,838 --> 00:17:38,880 AUDIENCE: So you said something very interesting, 370 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,190 that creating mutual values. 371 00:17:41,190 --> 00:17:43,260 From what I understood-- 372 00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:44,430 I might be wrong-- 373 00:17:44,430 --> 00:17:46,740 that anything goes. 374 00:17:46,740 --> 00:17:51,960 So one of the tension between Bangladesh and India 375 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,120 is Bangladesh being used as a vessel 376 00:17:57,120 --> 00:18:01,170 to create trouble in its Seven Sisters, which 377 00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:03,750 is why it is of India's interest to maintain 378 00:18:03,750 --> 00:18:05,560 the security in Bangladesh. 379 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:11,820 So I'm wondering if that sort of value can be created even-- 380 00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:14,130 I mean, can this be used as a bargaining chip? 381 00:18:14,130 --> 00:18:16,170 So that is what I want to know. 382 00:18:16,170 --> 00:18:17,375 PROFESSOR: Definitely, yes. 383 00:18:17,375 --> 00:18:18,750 I'll tell you something that is-- 384 00:18:18,750 --> 00:18:20,520 I think you hit it exactly right. 385 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,700 So about three years ago, when we have our water diplomacy 386 00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:25,440 workshop, and Larry may remember, 387 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,950 we have four individuals from Bangladesh 388 00:18:28,950 --> 00:18:32,760 foreign ministry came from foreign ministry 389 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,240 really to learn about water diplomacy in our workshop. 390 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,370 And their primary concern was that they 391 00:18:38,370 --> 00:18:40,890 want to work on the water treaty, what would they do? 392 00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:43,170 So we discuss the Seven Sisters issue, 393 00:18:43,170 --> 00:18:45,690 and we discussed that this is an issue that, yeah, this is 394 00:18:45,690 --> 00:18:48,030 a security problem for India. 395 00:18:48,030 --> 00:18:50,760 Can that be used, that Bangladesh 396 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:52,630 will create opportunity for that, 397 00:18:52,630 --> 00:18:56,700 so that these insurgencies do not create problem for India? 398 00:18:56,700 --> 00:19:00,540 Yes, this is open for discussion. 399 00:19:00,540 --> 00:19:03,180 You can link that with basically water. 400 00:19:03,180 --> 00:19:05,102 AUDIENCE: In that case, so I can actually 401 00:19:05,102 --> 00:19:06,810 bring security where I work [INAUDIBLE]?? 402 00:19:06,810 --> 00:19:07,530 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yes, you can. 403 00:19:07,530 --> 00:19:10,350 You can-- and then definitely, and this is a relevant problem 404 00:19:10,350 --> 00:19:14,430 for India to basically keep taking care of those Seven 405 00:19:14,430 --> 00:19:18,000 Sisters and this insurgency is a serious security problem. 406 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,780 And Bangladesh can help. 407 00:19:20,780 --> 00:19:25,010 And also, Bangladesh can be used as a transit. 408 00:19:25,010 --> 00:19:30,180 But then, Bangladesh has to ask something else in return. 409 00:19:30,180 --> 00:19:31,830 That is why the discussion must go on. 410 00:19:31,830 --> 00:19:34,610 This is a discussion I had with the foreign minister. 411 00:19:34,610 --> 00:19:36,780 And even after that, so I went to Bangladesh 412 00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:39,720 and we did have a workshop on water diplomacy 413 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,540 within the Foreign, basically, Ministry. 414 00:19:42,540 --> 00:19:44,430 And then pandemic started. 415 00:19:44,430 --> 00:19:46,572 Of course, then we got stuck. 416 00:19:46,572 --> 00:19:48,030 The difficulty, I'll tell you, this 417 00:19:48,030 --> 00:19:50,860 is just not to be shared with Bangladesh government. 418 00:19:50,860 --> 00:19:55,250 So I think the difficulty that we have in Bangladesh-- 419 00:19:55,250 --> 00:19:57,750 many of these ministries are extremely, I think I would say, 420 00:19:57,750 --> 00:19:58,620 progressive. 421 00:19:58,620 --> 00:20:01,850 But there is no system memory. 422 00:20:01,850 --> 00:20:04,600 Meaning that water secretary is water secretary right now. 423 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,500 Suddenly, he gets transferred to transportation. 424 00:20:08,500 --> 00:20:10,900 That memory doesn't exist, that basically he 425 00:20:10,900 --> 00:20:12,080 needs to do certain things. 426 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,965 And that does not continue to the next secretary. 427 00:20:14,965 --> 00:20:19,750 So as a result, really, you reinvent everything every time. 428 00:20:19,750 --> 00:20:21,426 And that's a problem. 429 00:20:21,426 --> 00:20:24,140 AUDIENCE: And then the lack of institutional memory is like, 430 00:20:24,140 --> 00:20:26,240 it's a serious issue in developing countries 431 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,350 like Bangladesh. 432 00:20:27,350 --> 00:20:28,560 I completely agree. 433 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,680 I work for the government so I understand. 434 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,130 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So that's a different problem. 435 00:20:32,130 --> 00:20:33,410 So that's the way we'll go later, maybe. 436 00:20:33,410 --> 00:20:34,868 So the third one that we're seeing, 437 00:20:34,868 --> 00:20:36,750 this adaptive regime of governance. 438 00:20:36,750 --> 00:20:39,590 And that is also very important because you need to anticipate. 439 00:20:39,590 --> 00:20:42,770 I think, Hossain, you are saying that, yes, in industry there 440 00:20:42,770 --> 00:20:44,570 is no climate change dimension. 441 00:20:44,570 --> 00:20:47,900 Because in 1960, we did not know even climate existed, 442 00:20:47,900 --> 00:20:49,650 let alone climate change. 443 00:20:49,650 --> 00:20:51,230 So we have no idea about this. 444 00:20:51,230 --> 00:20:53,640 So but, they did not put any provision. 445 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,910 But they did put some other provision though. 446 00:20:55,910 --> 00:20:59,150 If you look at the industry, they had a technical provision 447 00:20:59,150 --> 00:21:02,330 that they said that if there is a technical problem, 448 00:21:02,330 --> 00:21:04,400 that Pakistan and India cannot resolve, 449 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,238 somebody else should come into the picture. 450 00:21:07,238 --> 00:21:08,780 You know what that somebody else was? 451 00:21:11,290 --> 00:21:13,292 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I have mentioned it already. 452 00:21:13,292 --> 00:21:14,500 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Oh, you did? 453 00:21:14,500 --> 00:21:15,540 OK. 454 00:21:15,540 --> 00:21:20,410 All right, so that was brilliant. 455 00:21:20,410 --> 00:21:22,030 That was brilliant. 456 00:21:22,030 --> 00:21:23,650 The question is basically, why there 457 00:21:23,650 --> 00:21:27,520 might be precedent has to be basically somebody has to come 458 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,230 in and then appoint a body. 459 00:21:29,230 --> 00:21:32,260 Because they thought MIT is a good technical institution. 460 00:21:32,260 --> 00:21:35,260 They may still exist for 50, 60 years from now. 461 00:21:35,260 --> 00:21:39,410 And they will have no interest in India and Pakistan. 462 00:21:39,410 --> 00:21:40,500 So this was brilliant. 463 00:21:40,500 --> 00:21:42,550 So when you are trying to design this treaty 464 00:21:42,550 --> 00:21:44,890 for Indus or for the Ganges, you need 465 00:21:44,890 --> 00:21:46,180 to be also thinking forward. 466 00:21:46,180 --> 00:21:48,130 Basically, you don't know what will happen, 467 00:21:48,130 --> 00:21:49,510 whether climate change will come. 468 00:21:49,510 --> 00:21:53,802 What will happen if another COVID-22 comes in, who knows? 469 00:21:53,802 --> 00:21:55,260 But there has to be some provisions 470 00:21:55,260 --> 00:21:57,120 so that this can be used. 471 00:21:57,120 --> 00:21:58,680 What we are doing in this enabling 472 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,950 condition hypothesis is this-- 473 00:22:01,950 --> 00:22:04,800 if they are not in place, your treaty 474 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,750 is not going to be basically implemented well. 475 00:22:08,750 --> 00:22:10,250 It cannot be sustained very well. 476 00:22:10,250 --> 00:22:11,700 That's a big claim. 477 00:22:11,700 --> 00:22:15,380 So I want to hear or maybe you can do it 478 00:22:15,380 --> 00:22:20,920 later as well that, find out a treaty that was initiated, 479 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,690 implemented, and sustained for a long period of time. 480 00:22:23,690 --> 00:22:27,550 But one of these conditions were missing. 481 00:22:27,550 --> 00:22:29,770 That would be a good exercise. 482 00:22:29,770 --> 00:22:31,150 I could not find one yet. 483 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,190 But are these going to guarantee success? 484 00:22:36,190 --> 00:22:38,075 No. 485 00:22:38,075 --> 00:22:39,700 They're not going to guarantee success. 486 00:22:39,700 --> 00:22:44,200 But you can see, these are minimum subset. 487 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,840 The one example I usually give to make it simpler 488 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,970 is that if you want to get a PhD, what 489 00:22:49,970 --> 00:22:53,230 are the enabling conditions. 490 00:22:53,230 --> 00:22:56,880 Number 1 is obvious, I think, that you have to be alive. 491 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,180 Otherwise, you cannot do it. 492 00:22:58,180 --> 00:22:59,130 So fine. 493 00:22:59,130 --> 00:23:02,268 Number 2 is that you need to have a bachelor's. 494 00:23:02,268 --> 00:23:04,060 Unless you are getting an honorary degree-- 495 00:23:04,060 --> 00:23:05,727 we're not talking about honorary degree. 496 00:23:05,727 --> 00:23:08,530 If you said earn PhD, you need to have a bachelor's. 497 00:23:08,530 --> 00:23:10,050 So which bachelor's, I do not know. 498 00:23:10,050 --> 00:23:11,730 It could be in political science. 499 00:23:11,730 --> 00:23:14,820 It could be in hydrology, could be in computer science. 500 00:23:14,820 --> 00:23:15,570 Does not matter. 501 00:23:15,570 --> 00:23:17,403 But you need to have a bachelor's, at least. 502 00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:24,043 Everything else are situational. 503 00:23:24,043 --> 00:23:25,210 You need to have an advisor. 504 00:23:25,210 --> 00:23:26,180 You need to have funding. 505 00:23:26,180 --> 00:23:27,222 You need to have a topic. 506 00:23:27,222 --> 00:23:28,760 All kinds of things will be needed. 507 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,580 And then, of course, you have to pass the qualifying exam. 508 00:23:31,580 --> 00:23:33,500 A department has different requirements. 509 00:23:33,500 --> 00:23:35,390 You have to take this course, that course. 510 00:23:35,390 --> 00:23:37,610 Those are called situational conditions. 511 00:23:37,610 --> 00:23:40,070 If first two enabling conditions are not there, 512 00:23:40,070 --> 00:23:42,640 you're not getting. 513 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,680 But just because you have those first two 514 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,220 doesn't mean that you'll get PhD. 515 00:23:46,220 --> 00:23:47,960 No. 516 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,602 So that's what the difference is. 517 00:23:50,602 --> 00:23:52,060 So when you're thinking about this, 518 00:23:52,060 --> 00:23:54,200 you're thinking along those lines. 519 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,440 So these are not necessary and sufficient conditions. 520 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,482 I'm not telling you what will be necessary to get 521 00:23:58,482 --> 00:24:01,337 a PhD, what will be sufficient to get a PhD. 522 00:24:01,337 --> 00:24:02,920 But I'm just telling you that you need 523 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,480 these two enabling conditions. 524 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,450 Then, you need many, many situational conditions. 525 00:24:08,450 --> 00:24:11,270 And those situational conditions are context dependent. 526 00:24:11,270 --> 00:24:15,260 It will depend whether it is at MIT or Tufts or somewhere else, 527 00:24:15,260 --> 00:24:18,500 whether you're in engineering versus in urban planning. 528 00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:21,140 They have different requirements. 529 00:24:21,140 --> 00:24:24,950 DR. GAIN: But then, what is the difference 530 00:24:24,950 --> 00:24:30,118 between a necessary condition and enabling condition? 531 00:24:30,118 --> 00:24:32,970 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Oh no, necessary conditions 532 00:24:32,970 --> 00:24:33,973 could be many. 533 00:24:33,973 --> 00:24:36,390 I'm telling you that you don't need more than these three. 534 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,530 I can come up with many necessary conditions 535 00:24:41,530 --> 00:24:43,390 that may not still satisfy all. 536 00:24:43,390 --> 00:24:48,152 And see, the reason I think I want 537 00:24:48,152 --> 00:24:50,110 to get away from this necessary and sufficient, 538 00:24:50,110 --> 00:24:54,130 as we mentioned, this really came from a very structured 539 00:24:54,130 --> 00:24:56,830 discipline called geometry. 540 00:24:56,830 --> 00:25:00,610 So I'm trying to solve a geometric problem. 541 00:25:00,610 --> 00:25:04,420 Now I want to apply it to my messy transboundary water 542 00:25:04,420 --> 00:25:05,988 management problem. 543 00:25:05,988 --> 00:25:08,030 That's the reason I want to make the distinction. 544 00:25:08,030 --> 00:25:11,130 Because here, if you look at the news and look at writings, 545 00:25:11,130 --> 00:25:14,150 you'll see that, yeah, this was not a necessary condition. 546 00:25:14,150 --> 00:25:16,250 We did not satisfy necessary conditions. 547 00:25:16,250 --> 00:25:19,793 Then you ask them, OK, so what are the necessary conditions. 548 00:25:19,793 --> 00:25:21,210 So to give you a simple example, I 549 00:25:21,210 --> 00:25:23,910 tell you that I want to go from here to New York. 550 00:25:27,020 --> 00:25:29,300 So what are the necessary and sufficient conditions? 551 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,110 Can you exhaustively write this? 552 00:25:36,110 --> 00:25:37,740 AUDIENCE: No, there would be thousands. 553 00:25:37,740 --> 00:25:39,943 So it is not possible to cover them all. 554 00:25:39,943 --> 00:25:41,110 PROFESSOR ISLAM: You got it. 555 00:25:41,110 --> 00:25:44,290 So this is basically a very large space. 556 00:25:44,290 --> 00:25:46,670 I may decide to walk. 557 00:25:46,670 --> 00:25:48,430 I may decide to take a plane. 558 00:25:48,430 --> 00:25:50,650 I'll take a bike. 559 00:25:50,650 --> 00:25:55,110 I'll take a bike and then I will take a boat. 560 00:25:55,110 --> 00:25:56,040 Or I have a donkey. 561 00:25:58,610 --> 00:26:03,520 So I essentially cannot exhaustively write down all 562 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:04,670 the conditions. 563 00:26:04,670 --> 00:26:05,920 That's what the difficulty is. 564 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,870 So that brings us to something else 565 00:26:07,870 --> 00:26:11,300 that I want to start maybe our talk. 566 00:26:11,300 --> 00:26:12,490 So let's start there. 567 00:26:12,490 --> 00:26:18,100 AUDIENCE: Legal language sometimes like try to, I mean, 568 00:26:18,100 --> 00:26:19,630 make conditions that are exhaustive. 569 00:26:19,630 --> 00:26:23,910 For example, if the corporate of a chocolate 570 00:26:23,910 --> 00:26:26,640 is asked by a lawyer, then he would 571 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:33,240 write that this chocolate has to be from this particular tree. 572 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,800 And it cannot be consumed by any other party without paying 573 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:42,190 the money to the original company in any form. 574 00:26:42,190 --> 00:26:45,290 So in this way, they can probably minimize-- 575 00:26:45,290 --> 00:26:47,880 I don't know whether I could make sense or not. 576 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,920 But the legal language sometimes tries 577 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,318 to cover all those conditions that you say, 578 00:26:53,318 --> 00:26:54,735 that there are so many conditions. 579 00:26:54,735 --> 00:26:56,100 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure. 580 00:26:56,100 --> 00:26:57,518 So this is where essentially now I 581 00:26:57,518 --> 00:26:58,810 think you got it exactly right. 582 00:26:58,810 --> 00:27:00,420 So this is what basically-- although we 583 00:27:00,420 --> 00:27:02,470 don't want to talk about our previous procedures. 584 00:27:02,470 --> 00:27:06,060 So now if you come into the problem, really, 585 00:27:06,060 --> 00:27:09,720 if you want to define really what the presidency should 586 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:15,000 entail, does president have to really file taxes and make 587 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:15,720 it clear. 588 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,690 This was not explicit. 589 00:27:18,690 --> 00:27:22,470 It was not explicitly he has to file taxes and make it public. 590 00:27:22,470 --> 00:27:24,000 So he decided not to do it. 591 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,890 Now the question is, how many things can you 592 00:27:25,890 --> 00:27:27,960 write down explicitly the president has to do. 593 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,610 Then I have to even tell you, when he goes to the bathroom, 594 00:27:30,610 --> 00:27:33,783 this is what he has to use just to make it-- 595 00:27:33,783 --> 00:27:34,700 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 596 00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:35,575 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So-- 597 00:27:35,575 --> 00:27:37,075 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 598 00:27:37,075 --> 00:27:40,070 PROFESSOR ISLAM: The problem is, so this is exactly the point. 599 00:27:40,070 --> 00:27:42,590 So for the presidents of the United States, 600 00:27:42,590 --> 00:27:45,410 how many things you can explicitly write what 601 00:27:45,410 --> 00:27:48,230 he or she does really as a president. 602 00:27:48,230 --> 00:27:49,440 We cannot do this. 603 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,680 So we are assuming that certain things, 604 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,580 they will do because they are morally responsible 605 00:27:55,580 --> 00:27:58,120 individuals. 606 00:27:58,120 --> 00:28:00,830 I cannot be explicit about them. 607 00:28:00,830 --> 00:28:02,660 Because if I make it explicit, then it 608 00:28:02,660 --> 00:28:03,920 becomes essentially routine. 609 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,962 As you said, [INAUDIBLE],, you can write it down, 610 00:28:05,962 --> 00:28:08,630 this particular chocolate came from this particular tree 611 00:28:08,630 --> 00:28:12,220 and this can be eaten by only this particular individual. 612 00:28:12,220 --> 00:28:13,690 Fine. 613 00:28:13,690 --> 00:28:17,332 But then how many of them you write? 614 00:28:17,332 --> 00:28:19,790 That is where essential and necessary sufficient conditions 615 00:28:19,790 --> 00:28:23,030 miserably fail, particularly in the system when 616 00:28:23,030 --> 00:28:23,780 those are coupled. 617 00:28:26,620 --> 00:28:27,790 It can be fine. 618 00:28:27,790 --> 00:28:31,720 Right now, if you have asked me, the best law that we have 619 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:33,460 is Newton's laws of gravity. 620 00:28:33,460 --> 00:28:37,330 What is it that basically apple fall? 621 00:28:37,330 --> 00:28:39,910 An apple was falling before Newton. 622 00:28:39,910 --> 00:28:41,350 We just did not understand this. 623 00:28:41,350 --> 00:28:44,350 He was brilliant to find out a particular law that 624 00:28:44,350 --> 00:28:46,610 applies everywhere right now. 625 00:28:46,610 --> 00:28:49,310 Whether I'm in Bangladesh or in Boston, apple falls. 626 00:28:49,310 --> 00:28:52,860 And I know that I can explain it by gravity. 627 00:28:52,860 --> 00:28:54,740 So that's the law which is, I would say, 628 00:28:54,740 --> 00:28:58,490 the physical law that is replicable, verifiable, 629 00:28:58,490 --> 00:29:00,050 everywhere you go. 630 00:29:00,050 --> 00:29:02,990 Now to take an example for water that I use 631 00:29:02,990 --> 00:29:06,320 is that water flows usually downhill because of the energy 632 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,210 gradient. 633 00:29:08,210 --> 00:29:09,830 That's the physical law. 634 00:29:09,830 --> 00:29:13,240 But water also flows uphill. 635 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:17,500 For example, water flows uphill in the American west to money. 636 00:29:17,500 --> 00:29:21,080 In my home on the second floor, because I put a pump. 637 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,830 Otherwise, water cannot go to my second floor. 638 00:29:24,830 --> 00:29:26,540 By gravity, it should go down. 639 00:29:26,540 --> 00:29:29,390 How could I get water in my second floor bathroom? 640 00:29:29,390 --> 00:29:31,550 I get it because the water is pressurized. 641 00:29:31,550 --> 00:29:34,760 So I can create conditions that things can also 642 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,140 violate the physical laws. 643 00:29:38,140 --> 00:29:43,290 Now when those physical laws are violated by human intentions, 644 00:29:43,290 --> 00:29:45,520 then you have a problem. 645 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,820 Like, for example, Ganges was flowing fine. 646 00:29:48,820 --> 00:29:51,640 India decided to build a barrage. 647 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,230 Barrage was not there. 648 00:29:53,230 --> 00:29:55,190 Now they can control it. 649 00:29:55,190 --> 00:29:57,790 So that's a physical control of water, 650 00:29:57,790 --> 00:30:01,310 which is violating the physical principles. 651 00:30:01,310 --> 00:30:04,010 And that's when our natural systems and human systems 652 00:30:04,010 --> 00:30:06,590 are coupled, and then it becomes a complex problem. 653 00:30:09,992 --> 00:30:12,146 Is it making sense? 654 00:30:12,146 --> 00:30:13,240 AUDIENCE: Yes, professor. 655 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,250 PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right. 656 00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:16,792 So here I think I'll give you a quiz. 657 00:30:16,792 --> 00:30:17,792 And then we'll continue. 658 00:30:17,792 --> 00:30:19,390 So how many colors do you see here? 659 00:30:23,838 --> 00:30:25,880 Water diplomacy-- A Principled Pragmatic Approach 660 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,290 to Govern and Manage Complex Societal Problems. 661 00:30:29,290 --> 00:30:30,490 How many colors? 662 00:30:30,490 --> 00:30:31,390 AUDIENCE: Three. 663 00:30:31,390 --> 00:30:31,870 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Three. 664 00:30:31,870 --> 00:30:32,380 Good. 665 00:30:32,380 --> 00:30:34,420 So remember three, three is important here. 666 00:30:34,420 --> 00:30:36,990 Then I will tell you something else. 667 00:30:36,990 --> 00:30:43,030 So water, diplomacy, principled, pragmatic, 668 00:30:43,030 --> 00:30:46,300 govern, complex, problems. 669 00:30:46,300 --> 00:30:48,550 So put all kinds of words-- and I'm 670 00:30:48,550 --> 00:30:51,190 sure you have heard many of these words many, many times 671 00:30:51,190 --> 00:30:52,220 in this class. 672 00:30:52,220 --> 00:30:55,790 So how many colors are here? 673 00:30:55,790 --> 00:30:56,610 AUDIENCE: Seven. 674 00:30:56,610 --> 00:30:57,570 AUDIENCE: Seven. 675 00:30:57,570 --> 00:30:57,780 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Seven. 676 00:30:57,780 --> 00:30:57,990 Good. 677 00:30:57,990 --> 00:30:58,657 AUDIENCE: Seven. 678 00:30:58,657 --> 00:31:01,380 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So you have three and then you have seven. 679 00:31:01,380 --> 00:31:04,140 So I'll just give you one basically clue. 680 00:31:04,140 --> 00:31:06,970 And then we'll discuss this at the end of the class. 681 00:31:06,970 --> 00:31:11,410 So if you really want to be very scientific about this, 682 00:31:11,410 --> 00:31:13,360 there are only three colors-- 683 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:18,450 RBG, red, blue, and green. 684 00:31:18,450 --> 00:31:24,390 Then, everywhere you go, this seven color comes in. 685 00:31:24,390 --> 00:31:27,670 There are seven colors of rainbow. 686 00:31:27,670 --> 00:31:30,240 There are seven heavens. 687 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,370 There are all kinds of seven came into the picture. 688 00:31:32,370 --> 00:31:34,500 Where did this three and seven then came from? 689 00:31:34,500 --> 00:31:35,600 I have only three color. 690 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,520 Why do I have seven? 691 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,750 Why do people say that there are seven colors in rainbow? 692 00:31:42,750 --> 00:31:45,265 In reality, if you go to the fundamental color, 693 00:31:45,265 --> 00:31:46,140 there are only three. 694 00:31:49,550 --> 00:31:53,270 Now if you go to your computer, and if you 695 00:31:53,270 --> 00:31:57,640 have a 24-bit machine, you probably 696 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,730 have about on the order of eight million colors 697 00:32:01,730 --> 00:32:04,820 based on this three combination of RBG. 698 00:32:04,820 --> 00:32:09,470 So I can go from three to eight million. 699 00:32:09,470 --> 00:32:11,540 And now if you just give you a color palette 700 00:32:11,540 --> 00:32:14,140 and I tell you that, fine detail, what color is this, 701 00:32:14,140 --> 00:32:16,640 there is simply no way you can fine detail unless I tell you 702 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,480 what those are. 703 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:19,630 So what is my point here? 704 00:32:19,630 --> 00:32:23,710 The point is that you can take three things 705 00:32:23,710 --> 00:32:25,870 and put it in different ways and you 706 00:32:25,870 --> 00:32:29,830 can get millions and millions of combinations. 707 00:32:29,830 --> 00:32:32,290 Same thing is true for this necessary and sufficient 708 00:32:32,290 --> 00:32:34,340 conditions. 709 00:32:34,340 --> 00:32:41,010 I can take three variables, or three situations 710 00:32:41,010 --> 00:32:44,490 in a particular water conflict, and arrange it 711 00:32:44,490 --> 00:32:46,200 in different ways. 712 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,480 I can get many, many combinations. 713 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,570 So in this particular from three to seven 714 00:32:51,570 --> 00:32:54,570 to millions, that is the case, that means 715 00:32:54,570 --> 00:32:56,460 my necessary and sufficient conditions 716 00:32:56,460 --> 00:32:59,100 will never be able to be exhaustive. 717 00:32:59,100 --> 00:33:01,450 I cannot do it. 718 00:33:01,450 --> 00:33:03,850 Although, fundamentally, they are related maybe 719 00:33:03,850 --> 00:33:05,777 to only three. 720 00:33:05,777 --> 00:33:07,360 But I cannot come to that three level. 721 00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,730 If I come to that three level, it's too abstract. 722 00:33:10,730 --> 00:33:14,000 So that's why I put this basically mumbo jumbo stuff 723 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,500 here. 724 00:33:14,500 --> 00:33:17,650 That basically you have only 26 letters, 725 00:33:17,650 --> 00:33:20,920 but you can create a Shakespeare to water diplomacy 726 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,690 book and everything else in between 727 00:33:22,690 --> 00:33:25,270 by different combinations of letters. 728 00:33:25,270 --> 00:33:29,980 That is exactly the point with this interconnected systems. 729 00:33:29,980 --> 00:33:32,200 Your building blocks may be very few. 730 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,180 But the way those building blocks 731 00:33:34,180 --> 00:33:36,100 are interconnected and interdependent 732 00:33:36,100 --> 00:33:37,900 may create different situations. 733 00:33:37,900 --> 00:33:40,390 And that has serious implications in the way 734 00:33:40,390 --> 00:33:41,780 we think about water. 735 00:33:41,780 --> 00:33:44,270 So let's go there here. 736 00:33:44,270 --> 00:33:47,890 So I'll start with this many faces of water crisis. 737 00:33:47,890 --> 00:33:51,190 If you think about it, what is water crisis? 738 00:33:51,190 --> 00:33:54,110 Water crisis, if you think about, 739 00:33:54,110 --> 00:33:57,010 they'll tell you that if you have 20 liters of water 740 00:33:57,010 --> 00:33:59,890 per person per day from an improved source, 741 00:33:59,890 --> 00:34:02,400 you have access to water. 742 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,400 Just an estimate definition, and that definition 743 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,140 is used globally. 744 00:34:06,140 --> 00:34:09,350 Based on that definition, there are about 760 million people 745 00:34:09,350 --> 00:34:12,370 who does not have access to water. 746 00:34:12,370 --> 00:34:13,870 So this is what we're trying to do-- 747 00:34:13,870 --> 00:34:16,719 these are our SDG. 748 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,139 Now if you think about this, this is really not true. 749 00:34:20,139 --> 00:34:22,179 This 760 million is not true. 750 00:34:22,179 --> 00:34:23,510 Why it's not true? 751 00:34:23,510 --> 00:34:28,980 There are about two billion people lives in slums 752 00:34:28,980 --> 00:34:31,080 across the globe, from Dakar slum 753 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,620 to Bombay slum to Nairobi slums, and from Brazil. 754 00:34:34,620 --> 00:34:38,850 And these people are not even counted. 755 00:34:38,850 --> 00:34:40,170 Why are not they counted? 756 00:34:40,170 --> 00:34:46,170 Because most of them are in illegal government land. 757 00:34:46,170 --> 00:34:48,190 So government does not provide them water. 758 00:34:48,190 --> 00:34:49,677 So they are not even counted. 759 00:34:49,677 --> 00:34:52,260 They don't have access to water or access to-- doesn't matter. 760 00:34:55,130 --> 00:34:57,320 So who are these 760 million people? 761 00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,920 These people are essentially people in rural villages 762 00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:02,750 in Africa and Asia. 763 00:35:02,750 --> 00:35:04,810 So this is one problem with access to water, 764 00:35:04,810 --> 00:35:06,370 definition of water crisis. 765 00:35:06,370 --> 00:35:10,425 On the other hand, when they talk about water scarcity, 766 00:35:10,425 --> 00:35:11,800 they have a different definition. 767 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:12,460 What is this? 768 00:35:12,460 --> 00:35:14,470 This is fewer than 1,000 cubic meters 769 00:35:14,470 --> 00:35:17,280 of water per person per year. 770 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,640 So if you're in the US, if you have 771 00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,190 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year, 772 00:35:22,190 --> 00:35:23,420 you are not water scarce. 773 00:35:23,420 --> 00:35:28,880 So Boston, for example, is not water scarce, but Nevada is. 774 00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:33,080 But as a whole, US is not. 775 00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:38,150 That translates to 2,740 liters per person per day. 776 00:35:38,150 --> 00:35:42,330 Look at the difference between 20 and 2,740-- 777 00:35:42,330 --> 00:35:44,760 huge difference. 778 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,210 Do you have access to water, versus, are you water scarce. 779 00:35:48,210 --> 00:35:50,160 These are two different things. 780 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,830 And we often then get confused which 781 00:35:52,830 --> 00:35:54,540 are you trying to address. 782 00:35:54,540 --> 00:35:58,437 If you go to SDG, it's not clear what they want to do. 783 00:35:58,437 --> 00:36:00,270 They have that thing is goal seven, I think, 784 00:36:00,270 --> 00:36:01,320 is related to water. 785 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,150 And they have all kinds of things there. 786 00:36:03,150 --> 00:36:06,942 But it's so, I would say, nebulous that it's not clear 787 00:36:06,942 --> 00:36:08,650 exactly how they're going to measure this 788 00:36:08,650 --> 00:36:11,360 and how they're going to implement this. 789 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,680 So access to water is not necessarily constrained 790 00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,230 by availability to water, really. 791 00:36:17,230 --> 00:36:19,630 It is something else. 792 00:36:19,630 --> 00:36:22,800 So when you want to talk about water crises, 793 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:27,090 and your objective is to provide water to a slum in Bangladesh, 794 00:36:27,090 --> 00:36:30,030 it's a very different problem than saying 795 00:36:30,030 --> 00:36:32,520 that I want to have water for agriculture 796 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,440 production in Bangladesh. 797 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,700 These are two different problems. 798 00:36:37,700 --> 00:36:41,140 And oftentimes, we confuse them. 799 00:36:41,140 --> 00:36:43,600 And let's go to the next one. 800 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,140 So what are the scientific facts versus societal problem here? 801 00:36:47,140 --> 00:36:48,970 More people die from unsafe water 802 00:36:48,970 --> 00:36:52,350 than from all forms of violence, including war. 803 00:36:52,350 --> 00:36:54,970 So these are statistical facts. 804 00:36:54,970 --> 00:36:56,620 There are also economic analysis. 805 00:36:56,620 --> 00:36:59,560 Every dollar invested in safe water and sanitation 806 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:04,168 yields anywhere between $5 to $27 in economic benefits. 807 00:37:04,168 --> 00:37:05,960 You don't have to agree with that 5 or 27-- 808 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:07,840 it's more than $1. 809 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,090 We're not going to the economic argument here for now. 810 00:37:10,090 --> 00:37:11,890 But at least there are many, many studies 811 00:37:11,890 --> 00:37:13,390 that has done this. 812 00:37:13,390 --> 00:37:17,510 That if I invest $1 right now, I can get $5 to $27. 813 00:37:17,510 --> 00:37:19,180 So that means I can make more money. 814 00:37:19,180 --> 00:37:21,480 Instead, I'm not doing it. 815 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,390 So what is the problem? 816 00:37:23,390 --> 00:37:26,840 And then I say, OK, 768 million people lack access to water. 817 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,885 Two billion people are living in high water scarcity region. 818 00:37:32,390 --> 00:37:35,000 So how come we're not doing anything about this? 819 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,670 And this is the statistics I had when I was a graduate student 820 00:37:37,670 --> 00:37:40,000 many, many years ago. 821 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,890 How could you have a crisis, then 822 00:37:41,890 --> 00:37:43,362 you're not resolving this crisis? 823 00:37:43,362 --> 00:37:44,695 So that means it's not a crisis. 824 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,060 So why it's not? 825 00:37:50,060 --> 00:37:51,440 Let's say that I am generous. 826 00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,660 I want to make 50 liters, not 20-- 827 00:37:54,660 --> 00:37:57,520 50 per person per day. 828 00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:02,520 Give me $120 billion, I can do it for everyone in the globe. 829 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:03,990 Look at the global GDP-- 830 00:38:03,990 --> 00:38:06,360 $85 trillion. 831 00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:11,320 Only 0.14% of global GDP. 832 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:12,930 So how come us as a global community, 833 00:38:12,930 --> 00:38:16,230 we're so much basically benevolent, so much generous, 834 00:38:16,230 --> 00:38:20,550 we cannot spend even 0.14% of our GDP to give water 835 00:38:20,550 --> 00:38:23,410 to everyone? 836 00:38:23,410 --> 00:38:26,510 So the problem is not economic. 837 00:38:26,510 --> 00:38:30,740 Problem is not that we don't have the technology. 838 00:38:30,740 --> 00:38:32,440 So how do I go then? 839 00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,940 So this is where I think maybe you 840 00:38:33,940 --> 00:38:38,750 can be a little bit more creative as water diplomats, 841 00:38:38,750 --> 00:38:40,900 that these are not really the argument that people 842 00:38:40,900 --> 00:38:41,400 are making. 843 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,440 We need to make different types of arguments. 844 00:38:48,420 --> 00:38:50,000 So then it comes to, basically, this 845 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,530 is the cover page of our book. 846 00:38:51,530 --> 00:38:53,030 So we are saying that, look, I think 847 00:38:53,030 --> 00:38:55,580 when you look at this problem, you need to look at this-- 848 00:38:55,580 --> 00:38:56,960 there are natural domain problem, 849 00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,880 there are societal domain problem. 850 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,840 These have been studied forever, but they also 851 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,700 happen in a politically real world. 852 00:39:05,700 --> 00:39:07,970 So in water diplomacy, what we are arguing 853 00:39:07,970 --> 00:39:09,398 for last several years that, look, 854 00:39:09,398 --> 00:39:11,190 you need to understand the natural problem, 855 00:39:11,190 --> 00:39:12,860 you need to understand the societal problem. 856 00:39:12,860 --> 00:39:14,990 You need to also understand that this is happening 857 00:39:14,990 --> 00:39:17,400 in a politically real world. 858 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,460 So how do I combine these scientific knowledge 859 00:39:19,460 --> 00:39:22,100 and social knowledge in a politically real world 860 00:39:22,100 --> 00:39:26,060 where things will have some way to at least have some traction? 861 00:39:26,060 --> 00:39:28,580 I don't have to discuss this idea of, look, 862 00:39:28,580 --> 00:39:31,520 I only need 0.14% of GDP. 863 00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,530 Still, people do not have access to water. 864 00:39:33,530 --> 00:39:36,560 768 million people do not have access to water. 865 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,430 These are all known problems. 866 00:39:38,430 --> 00:39:42,140 Go to any water literature right now, any water crisis, 867 00:39:42,140 --> 00:39:46,360 you'll see these statistics given everywhere. 868 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,148 So nothing is being done then. 869 00:39:49,148 --> 00:39:51,190 Those are the type of questions we want to raise. 870 00:39:51,190 --> 00:39:52,990 And hopefully, you guys will have 871 00:39:52,990 --> 00:39:55,622 some clue when you are in your organization 872 00:39:55,622 --> 00:39:56,455 to have some impact. 873 00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:02,000 So the reason I think what we argue 874 00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,740 that is happening, that there are differences 875 00:40:04,740 --> 00:40:07,250 in political boundaries, knowledge, know-how, 876 00:40:07,250 --> 00:40:07,940 management. 877 00:40:07,940 --> 00:40:12,470 These are all basically happening at multiple scales. 878 00:40:12,470 --> 00:40:14,630 And these choices are particularly 879 00:40:14,630 --> 00:40:17,330 problematic because they cross boundaries. 880 00:40:17,330 --> 00:40:18,380 They have uncertainty. 881 00:40:18,380 --> 00:40:20,310 They have multiplicity of values. 882 00:40:20,310 --> 00:40:22,730 So these are not basically unknown. 883 00:40:22,730 --> 00:40:25,610 What we are basically hoping do it with our water diplomacy 884 00:40:25,610 --> 00:40:28,700 framework is that we want to explicitly recognize 885 00:40:28,700 --> 00:40:31,640 this and see how to at least adjust some of it 886 00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:35,150 so that we can be a little bit better than what 887 00:40:35,150 --> 00:40:36,497 we were yesterday. 888 00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,850 See, I may not be here for another 30 years. 889 00:40:41,850 --> 00:40:46,840 So I could not see this changing very much in 30 years. 890 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,360 In 30 years, we still had the same number 891 00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,200 of people dying out of this lack of sanitation and water 892 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,930 across the globe. 893 00:40:54,930 --> 00:40:58,880 So are we basically dumb or we are just too insensitive? 894 00:41:03,740 --> 00:41:06,620 So this is where essentially we are standing here. 895 00:41:06,620 --> 00:41:09,733 And in a present, we came from past, 896 00:41:09,733 --> 00:41:11,150 but we don't know exactly where we 897 00:41:11,150 --> 00:41:13,910 came because past is-- although it came, happened 898 00:41:13,910 --> 00:41:16,940 once, the interpretation of past could be quite 899 00:41:16,940 --> 00:41:20,900 different because, for example, if you think about how I came, 900 00:41:20,900 --> 00:41:24,080 where I am right now, if you ask my mother 901 00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,740 or my wife or my daughter, they'll have different stories. 902 00:41:27,740 --> 00:41:29,870 And some of these stories will be probably similar, 903 00:41:29,870 --> 00:41:32,010 but it cannot be exactly the same. 904 00:41:32,010 --> 00:41:34,430 So that means our understanding of the past 905 00:41:34,430 --> 00:41:38,550 is also really colored by our own experience, 906 00:41:38,550 --> 00:41:41,510 our own perspectives, and the way we have seen it. 907 00:41:41,510 --> 00:41:43,250 The problem, even, is that future 908 00:41:43,250 --> 00:41:45,140 could be even more unknown because we have 909 00:41:45,140 --> 00:41:47,100 no clue how it will happen. 910 00:41:47,100 --> 00:41:49,690 But only thing we have is past. 911 00:41:49,690 --> 00:41:52,650 So how do I create water management situations 912 00:41:52,650 --> 00:41:57,723 by looking at the past, knowing that future is unknown? 913 00:41:57,723 --> 00:41:59,140 So this is the fundamental puzzle. 914 00:41:59,140 --> 00:42:01,740 It's a scientific puzzle, as well as social puzzle. 915 00:42:01,740 --> 00:42:04,133 This is where you need to basically-- the question 916 00:42:04,133 --> 00:42:04,800 you are raising. 917 00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,920 OK, in 1960, they didn't know about climate change. 918 00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,270 I don't know what will happen next 50 years? 919 00:42:11,270 --> 00:42:15,040 We did not know that COVID-19 will come in 2020. 920 00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,060 It did and it changed the life significantly. 921 00:42:18,060 --> 00:42:21,010 So those are unknown. 922 00:42:21,010 --> 00:42:23,280 And then we need to have somewhere to essentially deal 923 00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:23,780 with it. 924 00:42:23,780 --> 00:42:25,640 What is the next COVID going to come? 925 00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:27,100 We don't know. 926 00:42:27,100 --> 00:42:29,080 So what does that tell you? 927 00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,930 What tells you, most of our understanding from science 928 00:42:31,930 --> 00:42:33,550 is from physics. 929 00:42:33,550 --> 00:42:36,430 So what physics tells us that with classical physics, 930 00:42:36,430 --> 00:42:38,110 I can essentially describe the world 931 00:42:38,110 --> 00:42:41,710 in a very interesting and very predictable way. 932 00:42:41,710 --> 00:42:43,510 But the problem with complex system 933 00:42:43,510 --> 00:42:46,420 is that they are not easily describable by classical 934 00:42:46,420 --> 00:42:49,840 physics or quantum mechanics. 935 00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:53,030 World is not deterministic, world is also not random. 936 00:42:53,030 --> 00:42:54,753 It is somewhere in between. 937 00:42:54,753 --> 00:42:56,170 That's what the complex system is. 938 00:42:56,170 --> 00:42:58,810 Complex systems argues that this is not 939 00:42:58,810 --> 00:43:00,970 a purely predictable system. 940 00:43:00,970 --> 00:43:04,630 At the same time, it is not a random system either. 941 00:43:04,630 --> 00:43:07,420 So everything that you've learned in school, now 942 00:43:07,420 --> 00:43:09,820 is really not becoming very useful, 943 00:43:09,820 --> 00:43:12,250 because everything you learned is essentially either based 944 00:43:12,250 --> 00:43:15,880 on some classical physics, which is deterministic equations, 945 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,220 or statistics. 946 00:43:18,220 --> 00:43:20,440 But we're arguing that for complex system, 947 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:21,940 neither would work. 948 00:43:21,940 --> 00:43:24,250 You need a combination of these two. 949 00:43:24,250 --> 00:43:26,110 Then you come with this. 950 00:43:26,110 --> 00:43:30,010 Basically, two scientists in 1973, they were telling you 951 00:43:30,010 --> 00:43:32,560 "The search for scientific basis for confronting 952 00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:36,330 problems of social policy is bound to fail." 953 00:43:36,330 --> 00:43:37,970 And this is a very classical paper 954 00:43:37,970 --> 00:43:41,565 written in 1973, cited over 10,000 times now. 955 00:43:41,565 --> 00:43:44,075 DR. GAIN: Is this "wicked" problem? 956 00:43:44,075 --> 00:43:46,610 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, it is same thing, same group. 957 00:43:46,610 --> 00:43:49,520 So they were very brilliant, two young assistant professor 958 00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,640 from Berkeley in 1973. 959 00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,130 So what they were telling me, when 960 00:43:55,130 --> 00:43:57,022 you are confronted with complex problems-- 961 00:43:57,022 --> 00:43:58,730 we do not talk "wicked" because "wicked," 962 00:43:58,730 --> 00:43:59,870 I don't like this word. 963 00:43:59,870 --> 00:44:01,010 But they use "wicked." 964 00:44:01,010 --> 00:44:02,900 But "wicked" essentially in their term 965 00:44:02,900 --> 00:44:05,150 is very similar to what we call "complex." 966 00:44:05,150 --> 00:44:07,340 And these are interconnected problems. 967 00:44:07,340 --> 00:44:08,960 These are interdependent problems. 968 00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,390 There is simply no way to do cause and effect, 969 00:44:11,390 --> 00:44:14,690 and particularly when there are social policy involved. 970 00:44:14,690 --> 00:44:18,020 Then came this lady from here, Wellesley. 971 00:44:18,020 --> 00:44:21,350 She was an economics professor and chair. 972 00:44:21,350 --> 00:44:24,507 She said, you can't take politics out of this analysis. 973 00:44:24,507 --> 00:44:25,590 Now you have three things. 974 00:44:25,590 --> 00:44:29,680 You have physical systems, your social system, 975 00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:31,510 your political systems. 976 00:44:31,510 --> 00:44:33,640 And what we argue in water diplomacy, 977 00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:35,623 we try to mix them up. 978 00:44:35,623 --> 00:44:37,290 And we say that all three are important. 979 00:44:37,290 --> 00:44:39,082 And you need to be careful about all three. 980 00:44:39,082 --> 00:44:41,230 You just cannot take one or the other. 981 00:44:41,230 --> 00:44:46,090 And then your solution is not going to be very sustainable. 982 00:44:46,090 --> 00:44:48,950 DR. GAIN: So here, how is the difference 983 00:44:48,950 --> 00:44:52,460 between the social system and the political system? 984 00:44:52,460 --> 00:44:55,640 Sometimes-- 985 00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:59,150 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, that is a good point. 986 00:44:59,150 --> 00:45:01,160 You have to go then to our diagram here. 987 00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,840 Let me see if I can go back. 988 00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,380 So I did not use "social." 989 00:45:06,380 --> 00:45:07,755 I said "societal," so societal we 990 00:45:07,755 --> 00:45:10,047 are saying that there are only three things, because we 991 00:45:10,047 --> 00:45:11,300 want to make life simpler. 992 00:45:11,300 --> 00:45:15,590 We said we put governance, assets, and norms and values 993 00:45:15,590 --> 00:45:16,280 as societal. 994 00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,690 We are keeping political as a different entity. 995 00:45:18,690 --> 00:45:20,630 So this separation in many places 996 00:45:20,630 --> 00:45:23,330 you may find to be not really that clean. 997 00:45:23,330 --> 00:45:25,730 You can put politics also in societal domain. 998 00:45:25,730 --> 00:45:26,645 That would be fine. 999 00:45:26,645 --> 00:45:28,020 But then you need to be explicit. 1000 00:45:28,020 --> 00:45:29,420 But here we are explicit. 1001 00:45:29,420 --> 00:45:32,270 We are saying that for us, when we talk about natural systems, 1002 00:45:32,270 --> 00:45:35,850 we are talking about quality, quantity, and ecosystems-- 1003 00:45:35,850 --> 00:45:39,330 measurable, quantifiable, more or less. 1004 00:45:39,330 --> 00:45:40,890 When we talk about societal systems, 1005 00:45:40,890 --> 00:45:43,590 we talk about governance and we are keeping it broad. 1006 00:45:43,590 --> 00:45:47,280 Governance could be your NGO to your government 1007 00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:52,530 to basically your water board in Pakistan or Bangladesh. 1008 00:45:52,530 --> 00:45:55,540 Norms and values could be also quite broad. 1009 00:45:55,540 --> 00:45:56,950 It could be your cultural values. 1010 00:45:56,950 --> 00:45:58,582 It could be religious values of water. 1011 00:45:58,582 --> 00:45:59,790 So we are keeping them broad. 1012 00:45:59,790 --> 00:46:01,440 Assets, it's not only money. 1013 00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,360 It could be human assets too. 1014 00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,570 So we are being very careful when we coin these terms, 1015 00:46:06,570 --> 00:46:08,820 we spend a lot of time thinking about those. 1016 00:46:08,820 --> 00:46:11,430 So we kept them in a way that we don't 1017 00:46:11,430 --> 00:46:13,590 need any more than these six. 1018 00:46:13,590 --> 00:46:16,980 And we have asked this question to many of these water 1019 00:46:16,980 --> 00:46:18,990 diplomacy workshop attendees that, look, 1020 00:46:18,990 --> 00:46:20,760 do I need anything else. 1021 00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,590 Have we missed anything? 1022 00:46:22,590 --> 00:46:25,300 Tell us something that we missed? 1023 00:46:25,300 --> 00:46:27,420 So maybe we will ask you the same question. 1024 00:46:27,420 --> 00:46:29,610 Have we missed any variables that you 1025 00:46:29,610 --> 00:46:33,600 need to include to talk about water conflicts? 1026 00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,450 Those are not there in this particular figure. 1027 00:46:39,060 --> 00:46:41,908 Think of a variable or an actor or an institution. 1028 00:46:41,908 --> 00:46:43,866 We are saying that everything is included here. 1029 00:46:50,190 --> 00:46:51,180 Maybe think about it. 1030 00:46:51,180 --> 00:46:52,722 Maybe before the end of the semester, 1031 00:46:52,722 --> 00:46:55,110 you can let Animesh know. 1032 00:46:55,110 --> 00:46:57,332 Because these are big claims we're making. 1033 00:46:57,332 --> 00:46:59,040 Look, I think you don't do anything else. 1034 00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,080 These six are good enough, because we 1035 00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,960 have defined this sufficiently broad 1036 00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,750 so that you can go and dig deeper into this. 1037 00:47:09,620 --> 00:47:10,130 All right. 1038 00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,845 So those essentially six now, we are 1039 00:47:18,845 --> 00:47:20,220 saying that we can basically even 1040 00:47:20,220 --> 00:47:22,303 write it down in a little bit more systematic way. 1041 00:47:22,303 --> 00:47:24,900 We're talking about variables and processes that will 1042 00:47:24,900 --> 00:47:26,490 come from the natural domain. 1043 00:47:26,490 --> 00:47:30,980 Actors and institutions will come from societal domain. 1044 00:47:30,980 --> 00:47:34,020 And then you have values, interests, and tools. 1045 00:47:34,020 --> 00:47:35,730 And we go in that particular order. 1046 00:47:35,730 --> 00:47:38,780 So values, so this you need to be very, very careful. 1047 00:47:38,780 --> 00:47:40,940 Because what ends up happening in most cases, 1048 00:47:40,940 --> 00:47:43,070 since I came from a totally different domain-- 1049 00:47:43,070 --> 00:47:44,790 when I was doing my engineering stuff, 1050 00:47:44,790 --> 00:47:46,498 we were particularly interested in tools. 1051 00:47:48,818 --> 00:47:50,860 And then we basically started working with Larry. 1052 00:47:50,860 --> 00:47:52,527 And we found out that there is something 1053 00:47:52,527 --> 00:47:54,280 called interests and positions. 1054 00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:56,620 And then we need to talk about values. 1055 00:47:56,620 --> 00:48:00,810 So now we get into really entangled mess. 1056 00:48:00,810 --> 00:48:04,450 Then you have problems, policies, and politics. 1057 00:48:04,450 --> 00:48:08,260 What we argue that these things have to come into place. 1058 00:48:08,260 --> 00:48:11,290 You have a problem, you have policies, you have politics. 1059 00:48:11,290 --> 00:48:14,820 Unless these three are aligned properly, 1060 00:48:14,820 --> 00:48:17,310 you're not going to get a solution that will be basically 1061 00:48:17,310 --> 00:48:19,230 resilient and sustainable. 1062 00:48:19,230 --> 00:48:20,970 Just think about what happened, really. 1063 00:48:20,970 --> 00:48:23,690 Between January 20 and then today's April 27-- 1064 00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:28,930 just three months. 1065 00:48:28,930 --> 00:48:31,090 In three months, we have already vaccinated 1066 00:48:31,090 --> 00:48:33,850 about 200 million people. 1067 00:48:33,850 --> 00:48:35,730 That was not the case in December/January. 1068 00:48:35,730 --> 00:48:36,660 What happened? 1069 00:48:36,660 --> 00:48:38,350 Nothing much changed in the US. 1070 00:48:38,350 --> 00:48:40,493 Few people change in White House. 1071 00:48:40,493 --> 00:48:42,660 Other than that, most of the actors and institutions 1072 00:48:42,660 --> 00:48:44,690 are the same. 1073 00:48:44,690 --> 00:48:46,930 So some of the problems, policies, and politics 1074 00:48:46,930 --> 00:48:48,580 need to align properly. 1075 00:48:48,580 --> 00:48:50,920 If it does, things can explode or things 1076 00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,500 can get totally basically out of control. 1077 00:48:54,500 --> 00:48:59,230 So big-time thinking about is basically 1078 00:48:59,230 --> 00:49:02,425 just the difference between January 20 and, say, April 27. 1079 00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,510 So this multiplicity of choices, then, what it does really, 1080 00:49:09,510 --> 00:49:12,270 this essentially fundamentally challenged this idea 1081 00:49:12,270 --> 00:49:15,670 of finding optimal solutions. 1082 00:49:15,670 --> 00:49:19,760 This is what basically Rittel and Webber found in 1973. 1083 00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:21,320 They were talking about that when 1084 00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,680 you have a social problem-- 1085 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,800 we are calling them now coupled natural human system problem. 1086 00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,350 To look for optimal solution is impossible. 1087 00:49:32,825 --> 00:49:34,450 So that's the recognition we must have, 1088 00:49:34,450 --> 00:49:35,800 because this is the recognition. 1089 00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:37,570 At least, oftentimes, we do not have 1090 00:49:37,570 --> 00:49:39,940 when we are coming from a technical domain. 1091 00:49:39,940 --> 00:49:42,580 From a technical domain, we want to find an optimal solution 1092 00:49:42,580 --> 00:49:43,930 very quickly. 1093 00:49:43,930 --> 00:49:45,640 And optimal solutions are possible 1094 00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:48,040 for well-structured systems. 1095 00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:54,840 I can find the optimal temperature for my room. 1096 00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,180 There's no problem, because I can put enough basically 1097 00:49:57,180 --> 00:50:01,420 heating and air conditioning and thermometer to get it done. 1098 00:50:01,420 --> 00:50:06,540 But if I want to do optimal temperature for city of Boston, 1099 00:50:06,540 --> 00:50:10,180 it cannot be done, because city of Boston is open. 1100 00:50:10,180 --> 00:50:13,330 Now things are coming back and forth from all kinds-- 1101 00:50:13,330 --> 00:50:18,040 maybe from Connecticut or from Maine or from Canada, 1102 00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:19,590 where the cold air is coming in. 1103 00:50:19,590 --> 00:50:20,843 So I cannot make this. 1104 00:50:20,843 --> 00:50:22,260 But on the other hand, in my room, 1105 00:50:22,260 --> 00:50:25,690 I can do it because the room is bounded. 1106 00:50:25,690 --> 00:50:27,880 So basically it has boundaries. 1107 00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:29,340 It can be insulated. 1108 00:50:29,340 --> 00:50:30,670 It can be done. 1109 00:50:30,670 --> 00:50:33,870 So if the system is bounded, system is well-structured, 1110 00:50:33,870 --> 00:50:37,650 system is well-defined, optimal solutions are OK. 1111 00:50:37,650 --> 00:50:40,920 But in most natural systems, they are not. 1112 00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:45,598 In almost all coupled systems, it's impossible. 1113 00:50:45,598 --> 00:50:47,890 When the natural systems and human systems are coupled, 1114 00:50:47,890 --> 00:50:49,240 then you cannot find it. 1115 00:50:49,240 --> 00:50:52,610 Then you need to be contingent in context. 1116 00:50:52,610 --> 00:50:54,710 Then you say, fine, then what did I learn. 1117 00:50:54,710 --> 00:50:57,050 If everything depends on the context and everything 1118 00:50:57,050 --> 00:50:59,060 is contingent, then why come to school? 1119 00:50:59,060 --> 00:51:01,190 Just go and do it. 1120 00:51:01,190 --> 00:51:04,460 That's where I think will give you some clue with maybe water 1121 00:51:04,460 --> 00:51:07,160 diplomacy and principled pragmatism, how that can 1122 00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,020 be done, although they're contingent, 1123 00:51:09,020 --> 00:51:11,738 although they're contextual. 1124 00:51:11,738 --> 00:51:13,280 So water diplomacy, then, what is it? 1125 00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,500 So scientific method, I said that, in general, it's 1126 00:51:15,500 --> 00:51:16,103 objective. 1127 00:51:16,103 --> 00:51:18,020 So we'll talk about a little bit more closely. 1128 00:51:18,020 --> 00:51:22,940 So policy and decision-making is subjective. 1129 00:51:22,940 --> 00:51:25,400 Whether you like it or not, that's what it is. 1130 00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,763 So whether your political bias is Biden versus Trump 1131 00:51:28,763 --> 00:51:30,680 [INAUDIBLE],, you're seeing that policy-making 1132 00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:31,950 and decision-making. 1133 00:51:31,950 --> 00:51:33,380 So this is going to be subjective, 1134 00:51:33,380 --> 00:51:35,990 whether we like it or not. 1135 00:51:35,990 --> 00:51:39,653 Then we are seeing the scientific facts are objective. 1136 00:51:39,653 --> 00:51:41,570 Maybe, I think there are nuances that we don't 1137 00:51:41,570 --> 00:51:43,880 want to get into right now. 1138 00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,640 Social facts are subjective. 1139 00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,780 So I'm making a sharp distinction between these two 1140 00:51:49,780 --> 00:51:50,280 things. 1141 00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:53,430 So there is a scientific fact and there is a social fact. 1142 00:51:53,430 --> 00:51:56,240 When we talked about this idea of alternative facts, 1143 00:51:56,240 --> 00:51:59,720 where people got confused is that they were mixing it up. 1144 00:52:02,830 --> 00:52:05,910 Social facts are, basically, there are alternative facts. 1145 00:52:05,910 --> 00:52:08,370 Scientific fact, there is no alternative facts. 1146 00:52:08,370 --> 00:52:13,680 If I take my temperature, if I find it to be 98.4, it is 98.4. 1147 00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,920 Maybe with another thermometer, you can get 98.5. 1148 00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:20,288 It cannot be 200 degrees. 1149 00:52:20,288 --> 00:52:21,455 So that's a scientific fact. 1150 00:52:21,455 --> 00:52:24,950 And I said, this is objective, replicable, reproducible. 1151 00:52:24,950 --> 00:52:30,090 Social fact would be how I feel about the temperature. 1152 00:52:30,090 --> 00:52:33,010 I may feel perfectly fine. 1153 00:52:33,010 --> 00:52:38,780 And Larry may feel perfectly hot with the same temperature. 1154 00:52:38,780 --> 00:52:42,110 But the thermometer is measuring same temperature. 1155 00:52:42,110 --> 00:52:44,970 How both of us feels is quite different. 1156 00:52:44,970 --> 00:52:46,160 That's the social fact. 1157 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,310 That simply cannot be objectively defined. 1158 00:52:49,310 --> 00:52:51,330 And you don't have to. 1159 00:52:51,330 --> 00:52:54,350 But in decision-making, both are important. 1160 00:52:54,350 --> 00:53:00,000 I just cannot use scientific fact to make decisions which 1161 00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,220 will affect human beings. 1162 00:53:02,220 --> 00:53:03,750 I can do this for machines. 1163 00:53:06,380 --> 00:53:08,120 But when I bring in human beings, 1164 00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:11,390 when they have emotions, they have agencies, 1165 00:53:11,390 --> 00:53:15,170 they have temptations, I cannot use just scientific facts 1166 00:53:15,170 --> 00:53:18,050 and assume that it will work. 1167 00:53:18,050 --> 00:53:19,650 As a result, now, water diplomacy 1168 00:53:19,650 --> 00:53:22,190 is both subjective and objective. 1169 00:53:22,190 --> 00:53:24,500 So this is essentially very problematic 1170 00:53:24,500 --> 00:53:26,000 in terms of implementation. 1171 00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:27,680 But this is also very good because this 1172 00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,620 is the way you'll keep your job for the next 50 years, 1173 00:53:30,620 --> 00:53:32,540 because not anybody can do it that well. 1174 00:53:35,087 --> 00:53:37,670 So that's the reason I think-- so Larry is doing for 50 years. 1175 00:53:37,670 --> 00:53:39,250 I hope I can do it too. 1176 00:53:39,250 --> 00:53:42,645 For another 20 years, I'll tell you what to do. 1177 00:53:42,645 --> 00:53:44,020 And that is exactly where I think 1178 00:53:44,020 --> 00:53:46,630 the brilliance and the ingenuity will come in. 1179 00:53:46,630 --> 00:53:49,360 That this is not easily separable. 1180 00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,970 I cannot just take objective facts and claim that I'll be 1181 00:53:51,970 --> 00:53:54,130 able to do water management very well. 1182 00:53:54,130 --> 00:53:56,060 Neither can I do subjectively. 1183 00:53:56,060 --> 00:53:59,020 So if you can combine these two in some creative ways, 1184 00:53:59,020 --> 00:54:02,202 you'll have credibility and you'll be able to do it. 1185 00:54:02,202 --> 00:54:03,520 AUDIENCE: Professor Shafik. 1186 00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:04,780 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, please. 1187 00:54:04,780 --> 00:54:06,610 AUDIENCE: Can you repeat again the example 1188 00:54:06,610 --> 00:54:10,330 of the temperature, which is to illustrate 1189 00:54:10,330 --> 00:54:13,315 the difference between the subjective and objective? 1190 00:54:13,315 --> 00:54:15,550 PROFESSOR ISLAM: OK, so just one second here. 1191 00:54:15,550 --> 00:54:17,030 Let me see here. 1192 00:54:17,030 --> 00:54:20,135 So objective facts would be, I would 1193 00:54:20,135 --> 00:54:21,760 say-- we will go this into a little bit 1194 00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:22,760 more detail [INAUDIBLE]. 1195 00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,760 So objective fact, I am defining it very sharply. 1196 00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:27,820 So in my definition, objective fact 1197 00:54:27,820 --> 00:54:32,650 is based on scientific matters which are observable. 1198 00:54:32,650 --> 00:54:34,360 It has to be observable. 1199 00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,240 If it is not observable, so observable by how. 1200 00:54:37,240 --> 00:54:39,940 So then basically if you really want to be very sure, 1201 00:54:39,940 --> 00:54:41,980 you said we have five senses. 1202 00:54:41,980 --> 00:54:45,500 If these are not sensed by your five senses, it doesn't exist. 1203 00:54:45,500 --> 00:54:46,930 So I'll tell you, although I don't 1204 00:54:46,930 --> 00:54:52,270 want to basically make our friend Pinker in other school 1205 00:54:52,270 --> 00:54:53,020 on the Red Line. 1206 00:54:53,020 --> 00:54:57,250 He's a cognitive psychologist at Harvard. 1207 00:54:57,250 --> 00:55:01,000 So he would tell you really everything else that you cannot 1208 00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:04,120 sense or can't observe doesn't exist. 1209 00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:08,140 So trust-- it doesn't exist. 1210 00:55:08,140 --> 00:55:11,020 Trust simply is not measurable. 1211 00:55:11,020 --> 00:55:13,660 He has a whole book called "Enlightenment." 1212 00:55:13,660 --> 00:55:16,840 700 pages with hundreds of thousands of graphs. 1213 00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:19,840 And he's showing that with enlightenment we have basically 1214 00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:21,310 done remarkably well. 1215 00:55:21,310 --> 00:55:23,620 Because in all measures that he shows-- 1216 00:55:23,620 --> 00:55:25,840 of course, he's very selective in showing 1217 00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:27,130 that everything has improved. 1218 00:55:27,130 --> 00:55:29,530 Like, our infant mortality has improved. 1219 00:55:29,530 --> 00:55:31,660 Our war has gone down. 1220 00:55:31,660 --> 00:55:33,430 People dying from war has gone down. 1221 00:55:33,430 --> 00:55:35,720 People dying out of hunger has gone down. 1222 00:55:35,720 --> 00:55:37,630 So we are doing well. 1223 00:55:37,630 --> 00:55:42,100 But in that book, trust was not even mentioned once. 1224 00:55:42,100 --> 00:55:43,940 Because he doesn't care really about trust. 1225 00:55:43,940 --> 00:55:47,740 So for him, it's a scientific fact. 1226 00:55:47,740 --> 00:55:50,610 Unless it is observable, it's not scientific. 1227 00:55:50,610 --> 00:55:53,190 Social fact now, I feel bad. 1228 00:55:53,190 --> 00:55:56,460 And we have too many people suffering from mental disease 1229 00:55:56,460 --> 00:55:57,390 right now. 1230 00:55:57,390 --> 00:56:00,570 Mental disease will become the most pandemic really 1231 00:56:00,570 --> 00:56:05,510 in the next 20 years, he doesn't want to talk about this. 1232 00:56:05,510 --> 00:56:07,430 So funny, those are subjective judgment. 1233 00:56:07,430 --> 00:56:08,878 You figure it out. 1234 00:56:08,878 --> 00:56:09,920 So that's the difference. 1235 00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,060 He thinks those are not observable-- 1236 00:56:12,060 --> 00:56:13,470 doesn't exist. 1237 00:56:13,470 --> 00:56:16,130 So that's a very sharp, it's a very crude definition, 1238 00:56:16,130 --> 00:56:18,350 but that's the way I try to do this also. 1239 00:56:18,350 --> 00:56:21,830 So I say subjective is meaning that these are not 1240 00:56:21,830 --> 00:56:24,210 easily verifiable. 1241 00:56:24,210 --> 00:56:28,210 But I do disagree with him that, no, they exist. 1242 00:56:28,210 --> 00:56:31,280 I may not be able to measure them, but they're real. 1243 00:56:33,970 --> 00:56:36,400 He will say that they're not even real. 1244 00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:40,725 They're just a fiction of your imagination. 1245 00:56:40,725 --> 00:56:42,060 AUDIENCE: Thank you very much. 1246 00:56:42,060 --> 00:56:42,885 Thank you. 1247 00:56:42,885 --> 00:56:45,070 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So that brings us to this. 1248 00:56:45,070 --> 00:56:46,950 I think this you will like now. 1249 00:56:46,950 --> 00:56:49,380 So here, I want you to look at these two pictures. 1250 00:56:49,380 --> 00:56:51,040 And I thought it was very nice. 1251 00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:54,420 So there is a difference between myth and fact. 1252 00:56:54,420 --> 00:56:56,610 Look at this first figure. 1253 00:56:56,610 --> 00:57:02,870 And then remember what this individual is doing. 1254 00:57:02,870 --> 00:57:05,540 This individual now remembers myths. 1255 00:57:05,540 --> 00:57:09,690 Although you have given him 12 facts. 1256 00:57:09,690 --> 00:57:11,650 So what is the problem? 1257 00:57:11,650 --> 00:57:15,210 The problem is that our cognitive ability 1258 00:57:15,210 --> 00:57:19,660 to process information is not really very good. 1259 00:57:19,660 --> 00:57:21,360 So if you give me a lot of information-- 1260 00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:22,540 it's happening with COVID. 1261 00:57:22,540 --> 00:57:24,490 If you think about COVID clearly, 1262 00:57:24,490 --> 00:57:26,503 people are so confused. 1263 00:57:26,503 --> 00:57:27,920 It's not that people are confused. 1264 00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:31,915 People just simply cannot separate it out, 1265 00:57:31,915 --> 00:57:34,040 because you are giving me so many facts and so many 1266 00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:38,510 conflicting facts, so ultimately you remember the myth that most 1267 00:57:38,510 --> 00:57:40,490 likely I'll die. 1268 00:57:40,490 --> 00:57:42,320 Although the probability of you dying 1269 00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:46,750 is extremely low, even if you get it. 1270 00:57:46,750 --> 00:57:49,380 On the other hand, if you can give myth 1271 00:57:49,380 --> 00:57:53,640 with some carefully constructed facts, 1272 00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,630 you do remember the fact. 1273 00:57:56,630 --> 00:57:58,280 So the argument that I'll make here 1274 00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:00,500 is that our challenge is to essentially, 1275 00:58:00,500 --> 00:58:02,990 when I'm trying to debunk some of this myth 1276 00:58:02,990 --> 00:58:06,590 or some of the social facts, to create scientific facts. 1277 00:58:06,590 --> 00:58:09,260 Those are easily digestible to the audience 1278 00:58:09,260 --> 00:58:12,130 that I'm giving it to. 1279 00:58:12,130 --> 00:58:13,560 But that's very, very powerful. 1280 00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:16,170 Because otherwise, I can keep talking about this climate 1281 00:58:16,170 --> 00:58:16,890 change. 1282 00:58:16,890 --> 00:58:18,990 In general, public does not understand 1283 00:58:18,990 --> 00:58:20,880 what I'm talking about. 1284 00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:24,580 As a result, they think it's a hoax. 1285 00:58:24,580 --> 00:58:28,080 So what does that mean really is this. 1286 00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:32,110 When you're trying to replace a myth from somebody's mind, 1287 00:58:32,110 --> 00:58:34,390 you need to replace it by some facts. 1288 00:58:34,390 --> 00:58:39,650 Otherwise, it will get replaced by another myth. 1289 00:58:39,650 --> 00:58:42,380 So the question is basically and the politicians 1290 00:58:42,380 --> 00:58:47,190 are extremely powerful really in basically replacing myths. 1291 00:58:47,190 --> 00:58:50,730 And myth are not really easily discounted. 1292 00:58:50,730 --> 00:58:54,808 I don't believe that myth can be easily taken out. 1293 00:58:54,808 --> 00:58:55,600 They will be there. 1294 00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:59,050 The challenge is to create myth those are little 1295 00:58:59,050 --> 00:59:03,080 bit more scientifically valid. 1296 00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:04,590 If you can do this, then I think you 1297 00:59:04,590 --> 00:59:05,840 have an alternative narrative. 1298 00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:07,965 Otherwise, you don't have an alternative narrative. 1299 00:59:07,965 --> 00:59:12,050 You have no way to make any influence in the policy-making 1300 00:59:12,050 --> 00:59:15,140 and the decision-making. 1301 00:59:15,140 --> 00:59:18,522 So that brings us to something that I like is that-- 1302 00:59:18,522 --> 00:59:20,980 you remember when you talk about water diplomacy framework, 1303 00:59:20,980 --> 00:59:23,230 we did not say that this is model. 1304 00:59:23,230 --> 00:59:25,240 It is not even a theory right now. 1305 00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:26,790 So what is a framework? 1306 00:59:26,790 --> 00:59:29,210 Framework is something that is it's 1307 00:59:29,210 --> 00:59:33,850 some general ideas and general relationships that 1308 00:59:33,850 --> 00:59:36,580 gives you to address a particular problem 1309 00:59:36,580 --> 00:59:38,120 in a particular way. 1310 00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:39,340 So that is the framework. 1311 00:59:39,340 --> 00:59:41,840 When the framework get tested over time, 1312 00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:44,230 so we are doing it for many, many years right now, 1313 00:59:44,230 --> 00:59:45,940 gradually it will become a theory. 1314 00:59:45,940 --> 00:59:50,280 Eventually it will become a model and predictable. 1315 00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,000 So right now, we'll put on water diplomacy-- 1316 00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:55,110 principled pragmatism as framework. 1317 00:59:55,110 --> 00:59:58,880 This framework allows us to explain those things 1318 00:59:58,880 --> 00:59:59,780 in certain ways. 1319 00:59:59,780 --> 01:00:02,510 It allows us to intervene in certain ways. 1320 01:00:02,510 --> 01:00:04,970 When it becomes a theory, then you just 1321 01:00:04,970 --> 01:00:08,570 basically like evolution. 1322 01:00:08,570 --> 01:00:10,780 Evolution is a theory. 1323 01:00:10,780 --> 01:00:14,910 Newton's law is a law. 1324 01:00:14,910 --> 01:00:17,800 Newton's law is not a theory, it's not a framework. 1325 01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,040 So there is a distinction between framework, theory, 1326 01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:21,440 and model. 1327 01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:24,180 So model is at the level that you are the Newton's law. 1328 01:00:24,180 --> 01:00:27,800 So things doesn't matter really whether I'm in Boston 1329 01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:28,970 or I'm in Brazil. 1330 01:00:28,970 --> 01:00:32,460 Newton's laws applies. 1331 01:00:32,460 --> 01:00:33,880 So that is what the difference is. 1332 01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:37,910 So if you can develop certain law, 1333 01:00:37,910 --> 01:00:42,180 those are context-independent, then you have a law. 1334 01:00:42,180 --> 01:00:43,710 So do I have a law for water? 1335 01:00:43,710 --> 01:00:45,390 No I don't. 1336 01:00:45,390 --> 01:00:48,060 I don't have a water diplomacy law. 1337 01:00:48,060 --> 01:00:50,610 We have a water diplomacy framework. 1338 01:00:50,610 --> 01:00:53,100 And that framework with time will probably 1339 01:00:53,100 --> 01:00:58,600 get tested, refined, and get into theory and hopefully 1340 01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:00,280 into model some day. 1341 01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:04,810 So what are the principles? 1342 01:01:04,810 --> 01:01:06,700 The principle that we are trying to use here 1343 01:01:06,700 --> 01:01:08,200 in principled pragmatic framework 1344 01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:11,100 is this objective scientific method. 1345 01:01:11,100 --> 01:01:13,730 So we said that there is an objective scientific method, 1346 01:01:13,730 --> 01:01:14,930 these five senses. 1347 01:01:14,930 --> 01:01:17,900 It allows me to do certain things in certain ways. 1348 01:01:17,900 --> 01:01:22,310 Those will be independent of context. 1349 01:01:22,310 --> 01:01:25,850 Giving out example of taking temperature-- so a temperature 1350 01:01:25,850 --> 01:01:28,040 with a thermometer is a measurable thing. 1351 01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,170 I can easily validate this. 1352 01:01:30,170 --> 01:01:33,560 There is no ambiguity there. 1353 01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:37,400 Pragmatism comes in this subjective interpretation now. 1354 01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:40,220 Because the example that I was giving that how 1355 01:01:40,220 --> 01:01:44,600 I feel about temperature is a subjective interpretation. 1356 01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:46,850 That interpretation should not be confused 1357 01:01:46,850 --> 01:01:48,980 with scientific methods. 1358 01:01:48,980 --> 01:01:50,930 But I need both. 1359 01:01:50,930 --> 01:01:52,220 I need scientific method. 1360 01:01:52,220 --> 01:01:54,230 I need also subjective interpretation. 1361 01:01:54,230 --> 01:01:56,390 This is exactly where water diplomacy comes in, 1362 01:01:56,390 --> 01:01:59,400 that we just don't need scientific methods. 1363 01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:01,580 We also need subjective interpretation 1364 01:02:01,580 --> 01:02:05,800 of the local values, local context. 1365 01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:10,010 Then if I can combine these two, you get principled pragmatism. 1366 01:02:10,010 --> 01:02:12,057 That is subjective and objective. 1367 01:02:12,057 --> 01:02:14,390 The same thing that we talked about our water diplomacy. 1368 01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:19,190 Then we said, OK, like, I think, I don't know, 1369 01:02:19,190 --> 01:02:20,510 you have talked about this. 1370 01:02:20,510 --> 01:02:24,690 We look at the world in various, I would say, the simple way. 1371 01:02:24,690 --> 01:02:27,480 So we said that there are only three types of systems. 1372 01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:30,870 And our first job is to identify that problem. 1373 01:02:30,870 --> 01:02:33,270 And that's the diagnosis and characterization. 1374 01:02:33,270 --> 01:02:38,100 So with simple problems, but this causal relationships are 1375 01:02:38,100 --> 01:02:40,690 well-understood-- 1376 01:02:40,690 --> 01:02:43,270 complicated, it's often ambiguous, but-- 1377 01:02:43,270 --> 01:02:46,600 not easily identified, but you can still identify this. 1378 01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:48,850 Then you have complex problems-- 1379 01:02:48,850 --> 01:02:53,580 not easily identifiable, only perceivable in retrospect. 1380 01:02:53,580 --> 01:02:58,590 So a good example of this would be like flushing your toilet. 1381 01:02:58,590 --> 01:03:01,070 You can go and buy basically a toilet system 1382 01:03:01,070 --> 01:03:02,840 from Home Depot for $100. 1383 01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:04,460 It would work out very nicely. 1384 01:03:04,460 --> 01:03:06,230 No problem. 1385 01:03:06,230 --> 01:03:10,130 Bringing water to your home from Quabbin, 1386 01:03:10,130 --> 01:03:12,860 like about 50 miles away, and taking the water 1387 01:03:12,860 --> 01:03:14,360 on the 16th floor of your room. 1388 01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:16,340 And you get out, you get warm water, 1389 01:03:16,340 --> 01:03:18,610 that's a complicated system. 1390 01:03:18,610 --> 01:03:22,170 I need lots of pumps and pipes and then chlorination 1391 01:03:22,170 --> 01:03:23,910 and heating and so on. 1392 01:03:23,910 --> 01:03:26,070 Complex problem is the one that when 1393 01:03:26,070 --> 01:03:28,200 we created this global reservoir, 1394 01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:32,160 we have also eliminated four villages from Quabbin 1395 01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:35,280 because we wanted to create a large reservoir. 1396 01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:37,110 A lot of people has lost their homes 1397 01:03:37,110 --> 01:03:38,730 and they had to be bought out. 1398 01:03:38,730 --> 01:03:40,380 So was this right to do? 1399 01:03:40,380 --> 01:03:42,240 Because you are basically removing 1400 01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:46,740 human beings from four towns for 200 years, because Boston 1401 01:03:46,740 --> 01:03:48,960 has to grow. 1402 01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:50,140 Boston needed more water. 1403 01:03:50,140 --> 01:03:52,890 They needed to create the Quabbin Reserve in 1920s. 1404 01:03:52,890 --> 01:03:56,598 So they created this by eliminating four villages. 1405 01:03:56,598 --> 01:03:58,890 And there is still people complaining that that was not 1406 01:03:58,890 --> 01:04:00,593 the right thing to do. 1407 01:04:00,593 --> 01:04:02,760 So that's a complex problem where you have basically 1408 01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:05,730 coupled a natural system with the human systems. 1409 01:04:05,730 --> 01:04:09,170 Now the system is, in this case, is knowable and predictable. 1410 01:04:09,170 --> 01:04:12,408 So flushing a toilet is more or less predictable. 1411 01:04:12,408 --> 01:04:14,950 This is complicated, but it's still more or less predictable. 1412 01:04:14,950 --> 01:04:18,520 Not always, but this one is most of the time 1413 01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,270 unpredictable and emergent. 1414 01:04:21,270 --> 01:04:23,040 Meaning, that things will just emerge 1415 01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,320 that you had no idea that it was going to come. 1416 01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:26,850 And from your arsenic problem, you 1417 01:04:26,850 --> 01:04:28,225 have seen some of this emergence. 1418 01:04:28,225 --> 01:04:30,030 We'll talk about a little bit more. 1419 01:04:30,030 --> 01:04:32,950 If you are to intervene in these systems, 1420 01:04:32,950 --> 01:04:37,190 this will work with best practices. 1421 01:04:37,190 --> 01:04:40,010 And this is where I think most of the people got it wrong. 1422 01:04:40,010 --> 01:04:42,410 And I think we want you to be very careful. 1423 01:04:42,410 --> 01:04:47,120 What we are saying here is that, your best practices will apply 1424 01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:48,785 very well for simple systems. 1425 01:04:52,060 --> 01:04:54,340 If you go into a complicated system, 1426 01:04:54,340 --> 01:04:56,260 you need some expert knowledge now 1427 01:04:56,260 --> 01:04:58,690 and some contextual knowledge. 1428 01:04:58,690 --> 01:05:01,390 If you go into complex system, now you 1429 01:05:01,390 --> 01:05:03,825 need something totally different. 1430 01:05:03,825 --> 01:05:06,170 You need a synthesis of scientific facts 1431 01:05:06,170 --> 01:05:09,130 and social facts. 1432 01:05:09,130 --> 01:05:12,960 You simply cannot use best practices. 1433 01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:15,315 Because there is no best practices for complex systems. 1434 01:05:19,140 --> 01:05:22,530 And although you will hear this term often, 1435 01:05:22,530 --> 01:05:26,620 "give me a roadmap," no, I cannot give you a roadmap. 1436 01:05:26,620 --> 01:05:30,170 The roadmap assumes that I know the road. 1437 01:05:30,170 --> 01:05:31,270 So how do I know the road? 1438 01:05:31,270 --> 01:05:33,920 I know the road because I've seen it in the past. 1439 01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:37,840 So that means I'm assuming the past will essentially be 1440 01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:40,570 similar in the future as well. 1441 01:05:40,570 --> 01:05:44,500 If the future is a little bit different than the past, 1442 01:05:44,500 --> 01:05:47,260 my past knowledge is not going to be very useful. 1443 01:05:47,260 --> 01:05:49,830 So I cannot have a roadmap. 1444 01:05:49,830 --> 01:05:54,510 So to hope for a roadmap, to hope for a best practices 1445 01:05:54,510 --> 01:05:58,625 is an illusion we must abandon to deal with complex problems. 1446 01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:03,150 Is it making sense? 1447 01:06:03,150 --> 01:06:05,400 But this is very important because we 1448 01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:07,350 need to make a distinction between these three 1449 01:06:07,350 --> 01:06:08,790 colossal problems. 1450 01:06:08,790 --> 01:06:11,190 Your first job would be to essentially decide 1451 01:06:11,190 --> 01:06:15,300 which one is simple, which is complicated, which is complex. 1452 01:06:15,300 --> 01:06:17,430 And then you cannot use the tool, 1453 01:06:17,430 --> 01:06:20,400 those that will be applicable for simple system, 1454 01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:23,340 when the problem is actually complex, or vice versa. 1455 01:06:28,153 --> 01:06:29,570 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Shafik, assume 1456 01:06:29,570 --> 01:06:41,280 that everybody is working on very complex problems. 1457 01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:44,820 Each of the cases you heard about, 1458 01:06:44,820 --> 01:06:49,450 the beginning that people describe, they're all complex. 1459 01:06:49,450 --> 01:06:52,210 They may have simple components within them, 1460 01:06:52,210 --> 01:06:55,410 but basically the conflicts and what's 1461 01:06:55,410 --> 01:06:57,225 at the heart of the conflicts are complex. 1462 01:07:00,070 --> 01:07:04,560 It sounds from your description like it's not 1463 01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:14,970 really possible to be usefully prescriptive in a situation 1464 01:07:14,970 --> 01:07:17,550 in which the problems you're dealing with 1465 01:07:17,550 --> 01:07:19,890 are highly complex. 1466 01:07:23,310 --> 01:07:24,450 You think that's right? 1467 01:07:24,450 --> 01:07:25,980 Or do we-- 1468 01:07:25,980 --> 01:07:29,730 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, then we're in trouble. 1469 01:07:29,730 --> 01:07:32,950 At some level it is, but at some level it is not. 1470 01:07:32,950 --> 01:07:34,570 So let me see what I can explain. 1471 01:07:34,570 --> 01:07:38,250 So the story that what has to happen then 1472 01:07:38,250 --> 01:07:41,760 is, when you are confronted with a problem like solicited, 1473 01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:46,500 we are confronted with the problem of Ganges Water Treaty. 1474 01:07:46,500 --> 01:07:48,550 So let's take this as an example. 1475 01:07:48,550 --> 01:07:51,870 Then, we have to decide, when we talk about Ganges Water Treaty, 1476 01:07:51,870 --> 01:07:53,290 what are we talking about. 1477 01:07:53,290 --> 01:07:55,140 So if you ask me right now, so I'll say, 1478 01:07:55,140 --> 01:07:57,540 Ganges Water Treaty should primarily 1479 01:07:57,540 --> 01:08:00,982 focus on the dry season flow. 1480 01:08:00,982 --> 01:08:03,440 So now I'm trying to make the problem a little bit sharper. 1481 01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:04,940 Why dry season flow? 1482 01:08:04,940 --> 01:08:08,690 In the wet season, I have about 70 to 80,000 cubic meters 1483 01:08:08,690 --> 01:08:10,160 per second of water flow. 1484 01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:11,480 That is a flood season. 1485 01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:13,940 Flood season lasts for a few weeks. 1486 01:08:13,940 --> 01:08:17,960 But it clears the problem, but that is a recurring phenomenon. 1487 01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:20,460 Then in the dry season, it's almost about eight to nine 1488 01:08:20,460 --> 01:08:20,960 months. 1489 01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:22,700 That creates significant problem, 1490 01:08:22,700 --> 01:08:25,850 both from water availability for ecosystems 1491 01:08:25,850 --> 01:08:28,580 to irrigation to navigability, so many, many things. 1492 01:08:28,580 --> 01:08:30,649 So I will focus on that part. 1493 01:08:30,649 --> 01:08:33,590 Then my question will be, so OK, so given 1494 01:08:33,590 --> 01:08:38,029 that dry season flow is only 4,000 as opposed to 80,000, 1495 01:08:38,029 --> 01:08:39,990 now what can I do. 1496 01:08:39,990 --> 01:08:42,950 How do I basically resolve this complexity of the problem? 1497 01:08:42,950 --> 01:08:45,170 Now we have to come up with deal with India 1498 01:08:45,170 --> 01:08:49,550 and sit down and see what adoptions can I have. 1499 01:08:49,550 --> 01:08:51,470 What adoption those are possible so 1500 01:08:51,470 --> 01:08:54,109 that we both can come up with some options 1501 01:08:54,109 --> 01:08:56,660 where we know we're not going to get 80,000. 1502 01:08:56,660 --> 01:08:58,729 We need clearly actually 20,000. 1503 01:08:58,729 --> 01:09:01,229 We only have four. 1504 01:09:01,229 --> 01:09:03,240 Now how do we solve this problem? 1505 01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:04,710 It's not easily resolvable. 1506 01:09:04,710 --> 01:09:08,279 Then, where essentially this whole idea of mutual value 1507 01:09:08,279 --> 01:09:11,399 creation, negotiation, and discussion has to come in, 1508 01:09:11,399 --> 01:09:15,090 rooted in scientific facts. 1509 01:09:15,090 --> 01:09:18,330 That's basically where I think you can think of really how 1510 01:09:18,330 --> 01:09:20,340 do I get around this mess, because otherwise it 1511 01:09:20,340 --> 01:09:24,634 becomes such a complex problem that nothing can be done. 1512 01:09:24,634 --> 01:09:26,490 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: So are you saying 1513 01:09:26,490 --> 01:09:29,700 that when you face a complex problem, 1514 01:09:29,700 --> 01:09:31,800 try to only work on part of it? 1515 01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:33,810 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No. 1516 01:09:33,810 --> 01:09:37,370 What I would say, that the approach 1517 01:09:37,370 --> 01:09:39,569 should be problem-driven. 1518 01:09:39,569 --> 01:09:42,180 Meaning, that you have to define a particular problem 1519 01:09:42,180 --> 01:09:43,330 that you want to solve. 1520 01:09:43,330 --> 01:09:45,390 So here I have defined the problem 1521 01:09:45,390 --> 01:09:50,340 that I want to resolve the dry season flow in the Ganges. 1522 01:09:50,340 --> 01:09:51,330 That is my problem. 1523 01:09:51,330 --> 01:09:52,413 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Right. 1524 01:09:52,413 --> 01:09:55,065 But isn't that really a part of the larger problem of trying 1525 01:09:55,065 --> 01:09:56,300 to managing the Ganges? 1526 01:09:56,300 --> 01:09:58,945 PROFESSOR ISLAM: It is, it is, no question about it. 1527 01:09:58,945 --> 01:09:59,820 No question about it. 1528 01:09:59,820 --> 01:10:02,820 And I don't think there is any way to disentangle this. 1529 01:10:02,820 --> 01:10:04,350 Can you take it all separately? 1530 01:10:04,350 --> 01:10:05,460 No, you cannot. 1531 01:10:05,460 --> 01:10:07,180 So then what do you do? 1532 01:10:07,180 --> 01:10:10,470 So at one extreme, then you can think of really, 1533 01:10:10,470 --> 01:10:13,470 everything is interconnected with everything else. 1534 01:10:13,470 --> 01:10:16,320 If that is the case, then you are in a mess. 1535 01:10:16,320 --> 01:10:18,087 That mess simply cannot be untangled. 1536 01:10:18,087 --> 01:10:19,170 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Right. 1537 01:10:19,170 --> 01:10:21,253 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Then, you can argue that, no, no, 1538 01:10:21,253 --> 01:10:23,910 you are essentially being reductionist, because you 1539 01:10:23,910 --> 01:10:28,200 are trying to reduce the problem to something that is simpler. 1540 01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:29,580 To some extent, yes. 1541 01:10:29,580 --> 01:10:32,400 But what we want to be careful really 1542 01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:35,850 when I'm defining the problem for the dry season, 1543 01:10:35,850 --> 01:10:38,100 I don't want it to be a reductionist problem 1544 01:10:38,100 --> 01:10:41,850 that basically we do not get affected by flood. 1545 01:10:41,850 --> 01:10:43,980 So I need to be careful really-- 1546 01:10:43,980 --> 01:10:47,550 the rest of the dry season is eight months. 1547 01:10:47,550 --> 01:10:51,210 These eight months will affect the other four months too. 1548 01:10:51,210 --> 01:10:51,930 How? 1549 01:10:51,930 --> 01:10:53,010 That is the question. 1550 01:10:53,010 --> 01:10:56,440 If they are cleanly separable, then it's easy. 1551 01:10:56,440 --> 01:10:58,890 But they are not cleanly separable, they will not be. 1552 01:10:58,890 --> 01:11:00,600 So this is what the complexity will come. 1553 01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:03,238 I don't think how hard we try you will be able to go in. 1554 01:11:03,238 --> 01:11:05,280 That's the reason scientific method is important, 1555 01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:09,670 because you need to keep this idea of experimentation valid. 1556 01:11:09,670 --> 01:11:11,160 So you observe, you ask questions, 1557 01:11:11,160 --> 01:11:13,440 you hypothesize your experiment, analyze, conclude, 1558 01:11:13,440 --> 01:11:15,000 and keep doing this. 1559 01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:17,573 Then you go here. 1560 01:11:17,573 --> 01:11:18,990 So I think that this I don't think 1561 01:11:18,990 --> 01:11:21,420 we need to call this because this is more into-- 1562 01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:26,290 recognize that basically there is no panacea here. 1563 01:11:26,290 --> 01:11:28,520 See, if there is no panacea, then what is there? 1564 01:11:28,520 --> 01:11:31,010 What I am saying that we need to be precise in diagnosing 1565 01:11:31,010 --> 01:11:32,960 the problem. 1566 01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:35,750 So here the whole approach that we are trying to take 1567 01:11:35,750 --> 01:11:38,060 is that this is a problem-driven approach. 1568 01:11:38,060 --> 01:11:40,500 It is not a theory-driven approach. 1569 01:11:40,500 --> 01:11:42,290 So I have a problem. 1570 01:11:42,290 --> 01:11:46,160 That problem is to solve dry season water problem 1571 01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:49,070 in Bangladesh or in India. 1572 01:11:49,070 --> 01:11:51,940 Now to do this, so that is my diagnosis of the problem. 1573 01:11:51,940 --> 01:11:54,730 Now what are the facets of the diagnosis? 1574 01:11:54,730 --> 01:11:56,950 What aspect do I need to do? 1575 01:11:56,950 --> 01:12:01,300 Is it really to keep Kolkata port navigable? 1576 01:12:01,300 --> 01:12:06,160 Or is it really to stop saltwater [INAUDIBLE] 1577 01:12:06,160 --> 01:12:09,200 in Bangladesh? 1578 01:12:09,200 --> 01:12:10,280 Or both are important. 1579 01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:12,810 If both are important, then how do I try to see, 1580 01:12:12,810 --> 01:12:15,080 given the limited amount of water that I have, 1581 01:12:15,080 --> 01:12:16,610 can I do both? 1582 01:12:16,610 --> 01:12:19,490 If I cannot, then do I have other options? 1583 01:12:19,490 --> 01:12:22,040 What if I use ground water? 1584 01:12:22,040 --> 01:12:25,220 Can I use groundwater in a year and next year basically 1585 01:12:25,220 --> 01:12:27,530 I have more rain it gets filled. 1586 01:12:27,530 --> 01:12:29,570 With the groundwater, I cannot use it forever, 1587 01:12:29,570 --> 01:12:31,340 because it will get depleted. 1588 01:12:31,340 --> 01:12:33,690 So those are the type of discussion that has to happen. 1589 01:12:33,690 --> 01:12:36,830 So precisely the point with complex system 1590 01:12:36,830 --> 01:12:40,250 is that complex systems will not allow you to give 1591 01:12:40,250 --> 01:12:43,430 a solution that is static. 1592 01:12:43,430 --> 01:12:45,200 It will give you a solution given 1593 01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:50,380 that particular problem, given that time and space scale. 1594 01:12:50,380 --> 01:12:54,430 Then what we need to be careful is that we monitor 1595 01:12:54,430 --> 01:12:58,700 and we keep adapting to the changing situations. 1596 01:12:58,700 --> 01:13:01,060 So that being said, we have to embrace complexity 1597 01:13:01,060 --> 01:13:02,518 with humility then. 1598 01:13:02,518 --> 01:13:04,310 That is not basically I'm going to give you 1599 01:13:04,310 --> 01:13:05,540 a solution, that you have it. 1600 01:13:05,540 --> 01:13:07,790 There is no prescription that is universal. 1601 01:13:07,790 --> 01:13:09,020 I cannot do it. 1602 01:13:09,020 --> 01:13:11,300 I'm just being very honest and blunt. 1603 01:13:11,300 --> 01:13:13,850 But at the same time, I'm giving you a framework. 1604 01:13:13,850 --> 01:13:17,540 That framework would allow you to do things in certain ways. 1605 01:13:17,540 --> 01:13:19,970 Then you think in a systematic way. 1606 01:13:19,970 --> 01:13:21,060 What does that mean? 1607 01:13:21,060 --> 01:13:22,700 That means that you try to define 1608 01:13:22,700 --> 01:13:24,860 what your system boundary is. 1609 01:13:24,860 --> 01:13:27,690 What are the nodes and links in that system? 1610 01:13:27,690 --> 01:13:30,980 So that when you get this spaghetti diagram, 1611 01:13:30,980 --> 01:13:33,680 what are the nodes and links that 1612 01:13:33,680 --> 01:13:36,410 create this spaghetti diagram and that is 1613 01:13:36,410 --> 01:13:40,738 understandable and systematically manageable? 1614 01:13:40,738 --> 01:13:42,530 Then you say, OK, I diagnose and prescribe. 1615 01:13:42,530 --> 01:13:44,238 So I'm saying that you need to prescribe. 1616 01:13:44,238 --> 01:13:46,040 So how do you prescribe then? 1617 01:13:46,040 --> 01:13:49,340 The way you prescribe by understanding 1618 01:13:49,340 --> 01:13:55,070 the capacity of the system, as well as the constraint 1619 01:13:55,070 --> 01:13:57,820 that system imposes on you. 1620 01:13:57,820 --> 01:14:01,210 What that means, really, the capacity and constraints 1621 01:14:01,210 --> 01:14:04,030 for the Ganges between Bangladesh and India 1622 01:14:04,030 --> 01:14:06,490 will be quite different, if you are 1623 01:14:06,490 --> 01:14:11,490 trying to do it for the Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia. 1624 01:14:11,490 --> 01:14:14,390 So the challenge here is that you have diagnosed the problem. 1625 01:14:14,390 --> 01:14:16,490 Now you have to give some prescription. 1626 01:14:16,490 --> 01:14:20,960 That prescription must be consistent with the capacity 1627 01:14:20,960 --> 01:14:22,880 that your system has. 1628 01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:25,910 And that capacity can involve basically from human capital 1629 01:14:25,910 --> 01:14:28,670 to basically actual assets of money 1630 01:14:28,670 --> 01:14:31,520 to cultural values and everything else. 1631 01:14:31,520 --> 01:14:37,560 But not all of them are important at any given time. 1632 01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:39,900 The challenge for us as a water diplomat 1633 01:14:39,900 --> 01:14:46,250 is to find out what those are and try to define that subset. 1634 01:14:46,250 --> 01:14:48,740 Otherwise, this set is very large. 1635 01:14:48,740 --> 01:14:51,080 You can go to the Ganges and assume that, look, 1636 01:14:51,080 --> 01:14:53,870 Ganges water is probably one of the most polluted water 1637 01:14:53,870 --> 01:14:54,800 in the world. 1638 01:14:54,800 --> 01:14:59,480 But it is the most holy water for Hindus in India. 1639 01:14:59,480 --> 01:15:03,080 So I cannot basically start questioning the cultural value. 1640 01:15:03,080 --> 01:15:05,757 That has to be taken into account. 1641 01:15:05,757 --> 01:15:07,340 So that is the capacity and constraint 1642 01:15:07,340 --> 01:15:10,550 the system is imposing on me. 1643 01:15:10,550 --> 01:15:13,820 Then I said that there is no panacea. 1644 01:15:13,820 --> 01:15:16,550 So let's be clear about this, that there is no simple, 1645 01:15:16,550 --> 01:15:18,800 generalizable best practices. 1646 01:15:21,410 --> 01:15:23,486 Then I said, OK-- 1647 01:15:23,486 --> 01:15:25,220 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Excuse me, Shafik. 1648 01:15:25,220 --> 01:15:28,520 When you say diagnose and prescribe, 1649 01:15:28,520 --> 01:15:32,540 using capacity and constraints, you 1650 01:15:32,540 --> 01:15:34,633 don't mean that you can't enhance the capacity. 1651 01:15:34,633 --> 01:15:36,050 PROFESSOR ISLAM: You can, you can. 1652 01:15:36,050 --> 01:15:38,008 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: With resources from outside 1653 01:15:38,008 --> 01:15:38,810 the system, right? 1654 01:15:38,810 --> 01:15:40,018 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, I don't. 1655 01:15:40,018 --> 01:15:42,870 I think very good point, no question. 1656 01:15:42,870 --> 01:15:43,370 Exactly. 1657 01:15:43,370 --> 01:15:45,860 I think we need to bring in other-- 1658 01:15:45,860 --> 01:15:48,810 capacity is not fixed. 1659 01:15:48,810 --> 01:15:51,645 Capacity can be enhanced, capacity can be reinforced, 1660 01:15:51,645 --> 01:15:54,060 even I think can be built, and even can 1661 01:15:54,060 --> 01:15:57,430 be taken as an outside energy. 1662 01:15:57,430 --> 01:16:01,860 So World Bank can create more-- basically can put in money. 1663 01:16:01,860 --> 01:16:02,742 Absolutely. 1664 01:16:02,742 --> 01:16:04,950 I think I need to be a little bit more careful there. 1665 01:16:08,870 --> 01:16:12,170 No let's not assume that the system capacity and constraints 1666 01:16:12,170 --> 01:16:13,080 are fixed. 1667 01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:13,580 OK. 1668 01:16:17,760 --> 01:16:20,820 So the question is, basically, do we need anything else. 1669 01:16:20,820 --> 01:16:23,020 Because I'm also teaching a similar class at Tufts. 1670 01:16:23,020 --> 01:16:24,990 So we need to pose this question. 1671 01:16:24,990 --> 01:16:28,020 So I'm asking maybe you guys also that. 1672 01:16:28,020 --> 01:16:33,330 OK, is this more or less general abstract level of things 1673 01:16:33,330 --> 01:16:36,300 that we need to do to start addressing the problem? 1674 01:16:36,300 --> 01:16:40,780 Then we'll get into very quickly our arsenic problem, then 1675 01:16:40,780 --> 01:16:43,508 how this can be applied in real-time. 1676 01:16:43,508 --> 01:16:45,550 I don't know-- how much time do we have, Animesh? 1677 01:16:48,760 --> 01:16:50,900 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: We have about 10 or 15 minutes. 1678 01:16:50,900 --> 01:16:51,733 PROFESSOR ISLAM: OK. 1679 01:16:51,733 --> 01:16:52,843 So, all right. 1680 01:16:52,843 --> 01:16:53,760 So let's do the thing. 1681 01:16:53,760 --> 01:16:55,200 Maybe I'll just go into this. 1682 01:16:55,200 --> 01:16:58,170 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Could you just go back one for a minute 1683 01:16:58,170 --> 01:17:01,010 to the diagram, to the list you had? 1684 01:17:01,010 --> 01:17:05,530 You said, in the question marks at the end, is that sufficient. 1685 01:17:05,530 --> 01:17:06,345 Is that complete? 1686 01:17:06,345 --> 01:17:07,540 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Do we need anything else. 1687 01:17:07,540 --> 01:17:08,670 It's like one question you raised, 1688 01:17:08,670 --> 01:17:10,585 I think I need to use this [INAUDIBLE]---- 1689 01:17:10,585 --> 01:17:12,540 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: My uneasiness 1690 01:17:12,540 --> 01:17:20,370 with that list is that, if you're going to act adaptively, 1691 01:17:20,370 --> 01:17:26,040 if you're going to continue to review and change what you are 1692 01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:32,250 doing, you need to have the institutional capacity 1693 01:17:32,250 --> 01:17:33,203 to do that. 1694 01:17:33,203 --> 01:17:34,120 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure. 1695 01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:40,820 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: To build the institutional capacity 1696 01:17:40,820 --> 01:17:45,860 to think and act systematically to build the capacity, 1697 01:17:45,860 --> 01:17:51,050 to act adaptively. 1698 01:17:51,050 --> 01:17:57,560 And so the person who's talking about taking action, I think, 1699 01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:01,850 needs to think about the institutional design 1700 01:18:01,850 --> 01:18:05,540 for the process that makes this list possible. 1701 01:18:05,540 --> 01:18:08,373 And that itself becomes an item on the list. 1702 01:18:08,373 --> 01:18:09,290 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure. 1703 01:18:09,290 --> 01:18:09,860 Good point. 1704 01:18:12,478 --> 01:18:13,270 Any other thoughts? 1705 01:18:19,140 --> 01:18:22,140 All right, let's see whether we can-- 1706 01:18:22,140 --> 01:18:23,920 so essentially that what we are arguing-- 1707 01:18:23,920 --> 01:18:25,632 so I hope I convinced you-- that there 1708 01:18:25,632 --> 01:18:27,090 is no established methodology exist 1709 01:18:27,090 --> 01:18:29,730 to resolve complex problem, because these problems are not 1710 01:18:29,730 --> 01:18:31,340 deterministic nor random. 1711 01:18:31,340 --> 01:18:33,840 So that means you cannot use classical physics or you cannot 1712 01:18:33,840 --> 01:18:37,030 use statistical mechanics to do this. 1713 01:18:37,030 --> 01:18:39,670 Then, at the same time, these problems 1714 01:18:39,670 --> 01:18:43,350 can neither be fully explored by the positivist, meaning 1715 01:18:43,350 --> 01:18:45,270 this hypothesis testing type of framework 1716 01:18:45,270 --> 01:18:48,000 that I was arguing that with five senses. 1717 01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:50,700 So you cannot just use scientific methods. 1718 01:18:50,700 --> 01:18:54,470 Nor can you use just interpretations. 1719 01:18:54,470 --> 01:18:57,670 So it's not that basically you can use either/or methods. 1720 01:18:57,670 --> 01:19:00,070 So you cannot use purely scientific method. 1721 01:19:00,070 --> 01:19:01,810 You cannot use purely subjective, 1722 01:19:01,810 --> 01:19:05,300 ethnographic methods to address these problems. 1723 01:19:05,300 --> 01:19:07,000 What then you have to do really is 1724 01:19:07,000 --> 01:19:09,490 somewhere to basically combine your scientific facts 1725 01:19:09,490 --> 01:19:11,420 and social facts. 1726 01:19:11,420 --> 01:19:12,680 So that's what it's all about. 1727 01:19:12,680 --> 01:19:15,350 And if you look at the paper that I sent you to read, 1728 01:19:15,350 --> 01:19:17,770 the arsenic contamination problem essentially tries to do 1729 01:19:17,770 --> 01:19:22,600 this, is to explain the problem from a scientific facts 1730 01:19:22,600 --> 01:19:25,360 perspective, then use the understanding-- 1731 01:19:25,360 --> 01:19:26,740 meaning the social facts-- 1732 01:19:26,740 --> 01:19:28,580 to actually address the problem. 1733 01:19:28,580 --> 01:19:30,610 So what that means to you is-- so let's go back 1734 01:19:30,610 --> 01:19:31,860 and visiting your [INAUDIBLE]. 1735 01:19:31,860 --> 01:19:32,860 I don't go here. 1736 01:19:32,860 --> 01:19:34,420 So I go here. 1737 01:19:34,420 --> 01:19:36,290 So I use an illustrative case. 1738 01:19:36,290 --> 01:19:40,950 Illustrative case is that it can support a theory. 1739 01:19:40,950 --> 01:19:43,190 So the arsenic contamination problem 1740 01:19:43,190 --> 01:19:46,160 is used here as an illustrative case. 1741 01:19:46,160 --> 01:19:49,040 Meaning that if you illustrate that, it's a complex problem. 1742 01:19:49,040 --> 01:19:53,840 But it does not really provide any validation of the theory. 1743 01:19:53,840 --> 01:19:56,090 But we've also used it as an extended case. 1744 01:19:56,090 --> 01:19:58,940 Meaning that if I take this case and I 1745 01:19:58,940 --> 01:20:02,180 look at all the features, what I see really here is this 1746 01:20:02,180 --> 01:20:05,630 is a couple natural and human system problem. 1747 01:20:05,630 --> 01:20:08,120 In this couple of natural and human system problem, 1748 01:20:08,120 --> 01:20:13,260 when I intervene, it gives rise to emergent properties. 1749 01:20:13,260 --> 01:20:16,020 And then it becomes a complex problem. 1750 01:20:16,020 --> 01:20:19,430 So that means I can use this to show really 1751 01:20:19,430 --> 01:20:21,860 when you have this type of coupling, 1752 01:20:21,860 --> 01:20:23,990 you will expect these type of things to happen. 1753 01:20:26,550 --> 01:20:28,970 So now if you take, actually what happened then. 1754 01:20:28,970 --> 01:20:31,310 So basically Bangladesh has decided 1755 01:20:31,310 --> 01:20:33,857 that they will promote groundwater use as a case study 1756 01:20:33,857 --> 01:20:34,940 that we are using it here. 1757 01:20:34,940 --> 01:20:36,852 There are two policy goals. 1758 01:20:36,852 --> 01:20:38,810 They want to increase agricultural productivity 1759 01:20:38,810 --> 01:20:40,200 and reduce infant mortality. 1760 01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:43,070 So these were the policy goals they wanted to do-- 1761 01:20:43,070 --> 01:20:46,490 very sharp, very well-defined, easily measurable. 1762 01:20:46,490 --> 01:20:51,292 And then you go and then you see this. 1763 01:20:51,292 --> 01:20:53,000 So this is where essentially-- now if you 1764 01:20:53,000 --> 01:20:56,000 try to re-link all these different components, 1765 01:20:56,000 --> 01:21:00,830 different variables, processes, now you see this is a mess. 1766 01:21:00,830 --> 01:21:03,140 And this mess really is not new. 1767 01:21:03,140 --> 01:21:04,685 And this is not even our mess. 1768 01:21:04,685 --> 01:21:06,920 I think many people have created this type of mess. 1769 01:21:06,920 --> 01:21:09,540 They call this system diagram, an interaction diagram, 1770 01:21:09,540 --> 01:21:10,340 whatever. 1771 01:21:10,340 --> 01:21:13,310 And we are seeing that this is really so old, 1772 01:21:13,310 --> 01:21:15,920 basically it doesn't allow me to do anything. 1773 01:21:15,920 --> 01:21:18,832 I just totally get paralyzed. 1774 01:21:18,832 --> 01:21:20,540 So it's not going to work, because things 1775 01:21:20,540 --> 01:21:21,332 are interconnected. 1776 01:21:21,332 --> 01:21:22,400 We understand that part. 1777 01:21:22,400 --> 01:21:25,880 The question then becomes, how do you diagnose or sharply 1778 01:21:25,880 --> 01:21:29,810 define the problem that not all of these links and nodes 1779 01:21:29,810 --> 01:21:31,430 are equally important. 1780 01:21:31,430 --> 01:21:33,680 Only some are. 1781 01:21:33,680 --> 01:21:35,750 The question is, which are. 1782 01:21:35,750 --> 01:21:37,260 So in the case of dry seasonal flow, 1783 01:21:37,260 --> 01:21:38,510 we gave you an example relief. 1784 01:21:38,510 --> 01:21:39,635 That is what we want to do. 1785 01:21:39,635 --> 01:21:42,680 So that's a much simpler definition 1786 01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:44,493 of the problem with the interconnections 1787 01:21:44,493 --> 01:21:45,410 and interdependencies. 1788 01:21:45,410 --> 01:21:46,680 Those will be needed. 1789 01:21:46,680 --> 01:21:49,620 Once you have that, then you can go here. 1790 01:21:49,620 --> 01:21:51,470 So if you look at what Bangladesh has done, 1791 01:21:51,470 --> 01:21:53,570 they wanted to have two policy goals. 1792 01:21:53,570 --> 01:21:56,848 And these were achieved really with tremendous success. 1793 01:21:56,848 --> 01:21:58,640 It has increased agricultural productivity, 1794 01:21:58,640 --> 01:22:00,740 decreased infant mortality. 1795 01:22:00,740 --> 01:22:04,480 Agricultural productivity has gone up by almost 100%. 1796 01:22:04,480 --> 01:22:07,740 Infant mortality was the lowest in South Asia. 1797 01:22:07,740 --> 01:22:10,540 So in those terms, it was very good really, 1798 01:22:10,540 --> 01:22:16,820 very basically successful story from 1960 to almost 1980s. 1799 01:22:16,820 --> 01:22:19,190 Then what you started seeing, the arsenic contamination 1800 01:22:19,190 --> 01:22:21,200 emerges now. 1801 01:22:21,200 --> 01:22:23,660 In 1960, they did not expect that arsenic contamination 1802 01:22:23,660 --> 01:22:24,758 would come. 1803 01:22:24,758 --> 01:22:26,300 The difficulty they have created they 1804 01:22:26,300 --> 01:22:28,520 have not measured so they are not following it. 1805 01:22:28,520 --> 01:22:30,743 So they were not really monitoring the progress. 1806 01:22:30,743 --> 01:22:31,910 They are not being adaptive. 1807 01:22:31,910 --> 01:22:33,570 They did not care. 1808 01:22:33,570 --> 01:22:35,240 So as a result, it emerges. 1809 01:22:35,240 --> 01:22:38,090 Even that emergence did not really lead to any action. 1810 01:22:38,090 --> 01:22:41,570 It took another 15 years. 1811 01:22:41,570 --> 01:22:45,830 On the day first the arsenic was detected in water, 1812 01:22:45,830 --> 01:22:48,200 then to actually create something at the government 1813 01:22:48,200 --> 01:22:49,430 level, it took 15 years. 1814 01:22:49,430 --> 01:22:51,690 Why did it take that long? 1815 01:22:51,690 --> 01:22:54,030 So that's where basically the system failed. 1816 01:22:54,030 --> 01:22:55,610 Then you have taken interventions 1817 01:22:55,610 --> 01:22:58,187 which led to even more unintended emergence. 1818 01:22:58,187 --> 01:23:00,020 If you remember, really, you looked at this. 1819 01:23:00,020 --> 01:23:03,260 Basically, they put red and green wells. 1820 01:23:03,260 --> 01:23:06,050 Now the villages that had red wells 1821 01:23:06,050 --> 01:23:09,500 now have problems with basically girls getting married 1822 01:23:09,500 --> 01:23:12,200 because they have a stigma. 1823 01:23:12,200 --> 01:23:14,270 So you have created a social stigma 1824 01:23:14,270 --> 01:23:16,760 by creating a solution that you wanted 1825 01:23:16,760 --> 01:23:19,880 to do because you wanted to let people know that there 1826 01:23:19,880 --> 01:23:25,440 is this well is red, meaning it has high arsenic concentration. 1827 01:23:25,440 --> 01:23:26,930 So where did that come from? 1828 01:23:31,610 --> 01:23:33,200 What we learn from this, this was 1829 01:23:33,200 --> 01:23:37,210 a theory-driven, causality-based reasoning. 1830 01:23:37,210 --> 01:23:38,660 What did that come from? 1831 01:23:38,660 --> 01:23:44,080 So that really came from if you know the story of cholera 1832 01:23:44,080 --> 01:23:47,130 in London in 1854. 1833 01:23:47,130 --> 01:23:50,550 And John Snow found out that-- he was an epidemiologist-- 1834 01:23:50,550 --> 01:23:53,340 he found out that there is a cholera outbreak in London 1835 01:23:53,340 --> 01:23:55,450 and they cannot find out what is going on. 1836 01:23:55,450 --> 01:23:58,470 So he did a very systematic way of finding out 1837 01:23:58,470 --> 01:24:01,740 who has cholera, where the drinking water is coming from. 1838 01:24:01,740 --> 01:24:04,080 And he found out the well. 1839 01:24:04,080 --> 01:24:07,710 And he went and basically shut that well down. 1840 01:24:07,710 --> 01:24:10,100 Cholera went away. 1841 01:24:10,100 --> 01:24:13,190 So that is basically my theory, or by basically 1842 01:24:13,190 --> 01:24:16,400 scientific knowledge that I used in Bangladesh also, 1843 01:24:16,400 --> 01:24:17,900 without understanding anything else. 1844 01:24:17,900 --> 01:24:21,440 So I basically went and start painting everything red, 1845 01:24:21,440 --> 01:24:24,150 because Snow did it and it stopped cholera. 1846 01:24:24,150 --> 01:24:25,980 So if I do this, arsenic will be stopped. 1847 01:24:25,980 --> 01:24:26,960 Yes, it will be. 1848 01:24:26,960 --> 01:24:30,590 The only difficulty there is that this is rural Bangladesh. 1849 01:24:30,590 --> 01:24:34,940 Number 1, I have over 10 million wells right now and not one. 1850 01:24:34,940 --> 01:24:38,600 So as a result, my theory doesn't go with actually what 1851 01:24:38,600 --> 01:24:40,770 is happening on the ground. 1852 01:24:40,770 --> 01:24:42,170 So we got into serious mess. 1853 01:24:42,170 --> 01:24:46,380 And that took another 20 years to unfold. 1854 01:24:46,380 --> 01:24:49,580 So what would happen, in a principled pragmatic approach, 1855 01:24:49,580 --> 01:24:51,380 what you want to do, you want to find out 1856 01:24:51,380 --> 01:24:53,010 the problem-driven question. 1857 01:24:53,010 --> 01:24:56,330 So the question was that, OK, so I have infant mortality 1858 01:24:56,330 --> 01:24:58,710 problem in Bangladesh. 1859 01:24:58,710 --> 01:25:01,010 So to solve that infant mortality problem, 1860 01:25:01,010 --> 01:25:02,930 I found out the quickest solution. 1861 01:25:02,930 --> 01:25:05,060 What is the quickest solution? 1862 01:25:05,060 --> 01:25:06,890 Dig some shallow wells. 1863 01:25:06,890 --> 01:25:08,510 It's cheaper, it's quicker. 1864 01:25:08,510 --> 01:25:09,080 Fine. 1865 01:25:09,080 --> 01:25:10,340 And we've done that. 1866 01:25:10,340 --> 01:25:12,090 And that is perfectly fine. 1867 01:25:12,090 --> 01:25:15,710 What was missing there is that they did not monitor really 1868 01:25:15,710 --> 01:25:17,300 the progression of this. 1869 01:25:17,300 --> 01:25:19,250 They just assumed that it's a simple solution. 1870 01:25:19,250 --> 01:25:20,780 It'll stay forever. 1871 01:25:20,780 --> 01:25:22,310 If they have monitored this, they 1872 01:25:22,310 --> 01:25:24,530 would have found out long ago. 1873 01:25:24,530 --> 01:25:26,750 That's why we're seeing this problem-driven question 1874 01:25:26,750 --> 01:25:29,630 with hypotheses consistent with observed signals. 1875 01:25:29,630 --> 01:25:33,080 I need to keep observing the system as it evolves. 1876 01:25:33,080 --> 01:25:35,720 If I can do this, then I have an approach that 1877 01:25:35,720 --> 01:25:38,670 is more or less functional. 1878 01:25:38,670 --> 01:25:41,310 So to summarize then, basically, what we need to do, 1879 01:25:41,310 --> 01:25:45,240 we need to first find out a very sharp definition of the problem 1880 01:25:45,240 --> 01:25:47,100 that we want to address. 1881 01:25:47,100 --> 01:25:50,580 Then find out whether is this is a simple problem, 1882 01:25:50,580 --> 01:25:53,280 complicated problem, or a complex problem. 1883 01:25:53,280 --> 01:25:55,980 Then find out, if it is a complex problem, then what 1884 01:25:55,980 --> 01:25:57,870 is the complexity coming from. 1885 01:25:57,870 --> 01:26:00,720 Is the complexity coming from the scientific unknown 1886 01:26:00,720 --> 01:26:02,770 or is it coming from the social fact? 1887 01:26:02,770 --> 01:26:04,800 Those are alternatives. 1888 01:26:04,800 --> 01:26:07,200 Then try to synthesize these two. 1889 01:26:07,200 --> 01:26:11,550 Then design an intervention with some basically targeted metric, 1890 01:26:11,550 --> 01:26:13,140 that this is what I want to do. 1891 01:26:13,140 --> 01:26:16,140 And then monitor this as you go along. 1892 01:26:16,140 --> 01:26:18,530 Then you could be adaptive and find 1893 01:26:18,530 --> 01:26:21,420 a solution that will basically be resilient 1894 01:26:21,420 --> 01:26:23,680 and changes over time. 1895 01:26:23,680 --> 01:26:25,287 There is no universal solution. 1896 01:26:25,287 --> 01:26:27,120 So if have you one message you want to take, 1897 01:26:27,120 --> 01:26:30,930 I think that will be that there is no universal generalizable 1898 01:26:30,930 --> 01:26:33,280 solution for complex systems. 1899 01:26:33,280 --> 01:26:36,330 Complex systems will bring even more problems 1900 01:26:36,330 --> 01:26:37,890 once you try to solve them. 1901 01:26:37,890 --> 01:26:39,450 By the time you have solved them, 1902 01:26:39,450 --> 01:26:41,770 you have given rise to another set of problems. 1903 01:26:41,770 --> 01:26:43,300 And this is also nothing new really. 1904 01:26:43,300 --> 01:26:46,830 This has been done with Larry's department for many years, 1905 01:26:46,830 --> 01:26:48,990 from like Sean to other people. 1906 01:26:48,990 --> 01:26:53,800 They have talked about these problems almost 50 years ago, 1907 01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:56,080 that the idea of when you're trying 1908 01:26:56,080 --> 01:27:00,940 to do these social problems, by the time you solve the problem, 1909 01:27:00,940 --> 01:27:03,843 you have given rise to another set of problems. 1910 01:27:03,843 --> 01:27:05,260 So the challenge is to essentially 1911 01:27:05,260 --> 01:27:11,680 be very aware of that problem nature will change. 1912 01:27:11,680 --> 01:27:16,890 And if it does, how do I detect them early on so that I can be 1913 01:27:16,890 --> 01:27:20,380 adaptive and act accordingly? 1914 01:27:20,380 --> 01:27:21,100 We'll stop here. 1915 01:27:25,060 --> 01:27:30,120 DR. GAIN: So do you have any final question for Shafik? 1916 01:27:33,417 --> 01:27:36,440 AUDIENCE: What are your thoughts about the enabling conditions 1917 01:27:36,440 --> 01:27:39,908 between India and Pakistan on taking up 1918 01:27:39,908 --> 01:27:41,450 the divisions in Ganges Water Treaty? 1919 01:27:43,550 --> 01:27:45,550 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Enabling conditions should be-- 1920 01:27:45,550 --> 01:27:46,960 those will remain three. 1921 01:27:46,960 --> 01:27:49,150 What you want to do, hopefully, I think, 1922 01:27:49,150 --> 01:27:55,250 is that what are the main issues of contention right now. 1923 01:27:55,250 --> 01:27:57,860 That needs to be discussed, because I have not 1924 01:27:57,860 --> 01:28:00,030 following recently about the industry. 1925 01:28:00,030 --> 01:28:03,240 So what would be good I think for if you 1926 01:28:03,240 --> 01:28:08,180 can identify one or two things that both countries are 1927 01:28:08,180 --> 01:28:09,470 in disagreement with. 1928 01:28:09,470 --> 01:28:10,400 What is that really? 1929 01:28:10,400 --> 01:28:11,650 So I can give you one example. 1930 01:28:11,650 --> 01:28:14,060 For example, for Brahmaputra is that what I followed 1931 01:28:14,060 --> 01:28:16,820 recently is, say, for example, India 1932 01:28:16,820 --> 01:28:19,910 is claiming that China is holding all the water 1933 01:28:19,910 --> 01:28:23,140 and then it will create problem. 1934 01:28:23,140 --> 01:28:25,690 Physically, that is not true. 1935 01:28:25,690 --> 01:28:28,930 Because the amount of water that is coming from Burma for China, 1936 01:28:28,930 --> 01:28:31,300 even if China-- we did this study with domination, 1937 01:28:31,300 --> 01:28:33,040 with another Chinese student we had. 1938 01:28:33,040 --> 01:28:36,760 Even if they decide to keep all the waters in China, 1939 01:28:36,760 --> 01:28:40,180 it will have no impact in India, although they 1940 01:28:40,180 --> 01:28:42,130 are making that claim. 1941 01:28:42,130 --> 01:28:45,570 So this is essentially a social myth they want to create, 1942 01:28:45,570 --> 01:28:48,150 that the Chinese are creating problem. 1943 01:28:48,150 --> 01:28:51,580 But these are not based on facts. 1944 01:28:51,580 --> 01:28:54,510 So what you want to do within this, to find out 1945 01:28:54,510 --> 01:28:59,220 is it possible to find some very sharp scientific facts-- those 1946 01:28:59,220 --> 01:29:00,300 are observable. 1947 01:29:00,300 --> 01:29:02,550 Like one example I use with Bangladesh 1948 01:29:02,550 --> 01:29:08,440 in India for the Ganges, even if I give all the water to India 1949 01:29:08,440 --> 01:29:11,110 in the dry season, India will still not 1950 01:29:11,110 --> 01:29:13,910 be able to basically make their Kolkata port navigable 1951 01:29:13,910 --> 01:29:15,740 during the dry season. 1952 01:29:15,740 --> 01:29:17,410 So that means this is a non-starter. 1953 01:29:17,410 --> 01:29:19,180 Why are we start fighting this? 1954 01:29:19,180 --> 01:29:20,530 Try to find something else then. 1955 01:29:22,882 --> 01:29:25,090 Although, of course, it was scarcest problem if India 1956 01:29:25,090 --> 01:29:27,440 keeps all the water in the dry season. 1957 01:29:27,440 --> 01:29:30,190 But even if Bangladesh decides I'll give you everything, 1958 01:29:30,190 --> 01:29:32,270 still it will not solve the problem. 1959 01:29:32,270 --> 01:29:36,320 So that means you need alternative sources now. 1960 01:29:36,320 --> 01:29:37,715 That part has not been explored. 1961 01:29:42,890 --> 01:29:44,820 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Before we finish, 1962 01:29:44,820 --> 01:29:48,660 I just want to thank Shafik again. 1963 01:29:48,660 --> 01:29:51,010 He and I worked together a long time on this. 1964 01:29:51,010 --> 01:29:53,100 And I'm always learning something new 1965 01:29:53,100 --> 01:29:56,700 each time I hear him present this material. 1966 01:29:56,700 --> 01:29:59,850 So thank you for taking the time, Shafik, to meet 1967 01:29:59,850 --> 01:30:03,210 with the class and for sharing your ideas. 1968 01:30:03,210 --> 01:30:05,550 And thank you for having such good ideas. 1969 01:30:05,550 --> 01:30:06,630 DR. GAIN: Yeah, so. 1970 01:30:06,630 --> 01:30:07,630 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, thank you very much. 1971 01:30:07,630 --> 01:30:09,672 No, I think, No, I don't want to embarrass Larry. 1972 01:30:09,672 --> 01:30:13,610 Larry has been an inspirational mentor. 1973 01:30:13,610 --> 01:30:16,100 So because many of the things that I discussed today 1974 01:30:16,100 --> 01:30:19,250 I did not know about maybe 15 years ago when I started out. 1975 01:30:19,250 --> 01:30:21,980 So we have been talking for a long time now. 1976 01:30:21,980 --> 01:30:24,080 So yeah, if you look at this guy, 1977 01:30:24,080 --> 01:30:27,610 you said that you need 10,000 hours to develop any expertise. 1978 01:30:27,610 --> 01:30:29,150 So between both of us, we probably 1979 01:30:29,150 --> 01:30:30,980 spend more than 10,000 hours now. 1980 01:30:30,980 --> 01:30:31,670 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Oh yeah. 1981 01:30:31,670 --> 01:30:33,212 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So hopefully we have 1982 01:30:33,212 --> 01:30:35,695 some level of at least understanding in for expertise. 1983 01:30:35,695 --> 01:30:40,027 DR. GAIN: But also, yeah from our side, yeah. 1984 01:30:40,027 --> 01:30:42,110 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Everybody in the class, right, 1985 01:30:42,110 --> 01:30:44,810 the other people in this class are potentially 1986 01:30:44,810 --> 01:30:49,730 the person you'll find yourself coming back to and working 1987 01:30:49,730 --> 01:30:51,380 with. 1988 01:30:51,380 --> 01:30:53,450 Shafik and I, we did not know each other 1989 01:30:53,450 --> 01:30:57,800 when we first encountered some overlap in our interests. 1990 01:30:57,800 --> 01:31:01,250 And we just kept creating opportunities 1991 01:31:01,250 --> 01:31:05,450 to exchange our thoughts, and Animesh then 1992 01:31:05,450 --> 01:31:10,550 gets added to the mix and now extends both of our ideas 1993 01:31:10,550 --> 01:31:12,990 and our work and his own work. 1994 01:31:12,990 --> 01:31:17,390 So everybody in the class should imagine 1995 01:31:17,390 --> 01:31:20,630 that it's through these interactions 1996 01:31:20,630 --> 01:31:24,990 with your colleagues that you shape and sharpen your ideas. 1997 01:31:24,990 --> 01:31:28,040 So Shafik, thank you. 1998 01:31:28,040 --> 01:31:29,070 DR. GAIN: Yeah. 1999 01:31:29,070 --> 01:31:30,620 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So for the class, 2000 01:31:30,620 --> 01:31:32,130 I think I have a challenge for you. 2001 01:31:32,130 --> 01:31:34,880 So since you did not share much of your thoughts, 2002 01:31:34,880 --> 01:31:35,930 maybe you're too shy. 2003 01:31:35,930 --> 01:31:39,270 So think about the arsenic paper that you read. 2004 01:31:39,270 --> 01:31:42,950 I want you to find out at least one hole, the one thing 2005 01:31:42,950 --> 01:31:46,550 that you found that this is really outrageously stupid, 2006 01:31:46,550 --> 01:31:47,790 it's not going to work. 2007 01:31:47,790 --> 01:31:50,870 So I gave the same challenge to my students also. 2008 01:31:50,870 --> 01:31:53,998 So there are a few things that I have issues. 2009 01:31:53,998 --> 01:31:55,290 I did not share those with you. 2010 01:31:55,290 --> 01:31:56,780 But I will not tell you right now. 2011 01:31:56,780 --> 01:32:00,150 But I want you to see really-- 2012 01:32:00,150 --> 01:32:02,960 Larry raised something very interesting here, 2013 01:32:02,960 --> 01:32:05,660 that if the institutional mechanism is not there, 2014 01:32:05,660 --> 01:32:09,060 if the capacity is constant, it's not going to work. 2015 01:32:09,060 --> 01:32:10,520 So we need to refine that. 2016 01:32:10,520 --> 01:32:13,340 But are there anything else you see in terms 2017 01:32:13,340 --> 01:32:16,760 of making it operational? 2018 01:32:16,760 --> 01:32:18,830 See, at one point I said the complex systems, 2019 01:32:18,830 --> 01:32:20,730 you don't have generalizable solutions. 2020 01:32:20,730 --> 01:32:22,880 You don't have any prescription. 2021 01:32:22,880 --> 01:32:25,340 But then we are giving you prescription too. 2022 01:32:25,340 --> 01:32:28,970 So the line is very subtle here. 2023 01:32:28,970 --> 01:32:32,520 But at the same time, I don't see a way around it. 2024 01:32:32,520 --> 01:32:33,980 So the question is basically how do 2025 01:32:33,980 --> 01:32:36,230 I bring in these ideas of principles 2026 01:32:36,230 --> 01:32:40,670 of scientific methods which are more replicable, more 2027 01:32:40,670 --> 01:32:43,220 reproducible with the social effects which 2028 01:32:43,220 --> 01:32:47,000 are going to be continuously subjective, continuously 2029 01:32:47,000 --> 01:32:49,330 contentious. 2030 01:32:49,330 --> 01:32:53,510 But at the same time, decision has to be made. 2031 01:32:53,510 --> 01:32:55,510 So that's where basically, where are the hiccups 2032 01:32:55,510 --> 01:32:59,020 or where are the binding constant that will essentially 2033 01:32:59,020 --> 01:33:01,298 let it fail? 2034 01:33:01,298 --> 01:33:02,840 If you can think of one or two ideas, 2035 01:33:02,840 --> 01:33:05,480 that would be good, or maybe an example 2036 01:33:05,480 --> 01:33:07,880 that you have seen in your real life 2037 01:33:07,880 --> 01:33:11,287 where you try to apply this and see, did not work. 2038 01:33:11,287 --> 01:33:13,370 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: He wants you to be a white hat 2039 01:33:13,370 --> 01:33:14,915 hacker of his work. 2040 01:33:14,915 --> 01:33:17,982 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yup, that'd be good. 2041 01:33:17,982 --> 01:33:20,868 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Find programming problems. 2042 01:33:20,868 --> 01:33:21,910 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Exactly. 2043 01:33:21,910 --> 01:33:26,680 So find a hole and then that will be very nice. 2044 01:33:26,680 --> 01:33:28,240 That's the way ideas gets challenged. 2045 01:33:28,240 --> 01:33:31,370 Otherwise, because you will stagnate. 2046 01:33:31,370 --> 01:33:33,550 DR. GAIN: And also, apart from that, 2047 01:33:33,550 --> 01:33:37,420 even if you have your own specific issue regarding 2048 01:33:37,420 --> 01:33:41,080 water diplomacy that can be related to the theory 2049 01:33:41,080 --> 01:33:43,030 that Shafik mentioned, you can also write him 2050 01:33:43,030 --> 01:33:44,060 an email so that, yeah. 2051 01:33:44,060 --> 01:33:45,310 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure, please. 2052 01:33:45,310 --> 01:33:46,090 Please feel free. 2053 01:33:46,090 --> 01:33:48,340 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: All right, I'm going to disappear. 2054 01:33:48,340 --> 01:33:49,960 But thank you so much. 2055 01:33:49,960 --> 01:33:51,060 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Thank you very much, Larry. 2056 01:33:51,060 --> 01:33:52,477 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I look forward 2057 01:33:52,477 --> 01:33:54,940 to the presentation starting next week. 2058 01:33:54,940 --> 01:33:56,000 OK. 2059 01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:56,560 Bye-bye. 2060 01:33:56,560 --> 01:33:58,060 PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right. bye-bye. 2061 01:33:58,060 --> 01:33:59,780 DR. GAIN: Yeah, thank you, thank you. 2062 01:33:59,780 --> 01:34:01,630 AUDIENCE: Thank you.