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PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right,
so what we're calling this,

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the enabling
conditions hypothesis.

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I did send you an op
ed that was published,

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I think, about two
years ago in a newspaper

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in Bangladesh called "Neither
necessary nor sufficient."

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So this is what the idea was.

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"Neither necessary
not sufficient-- three

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enabling conditions for
effective transboundary water

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management."

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So I started with this idea
that does life cause death?

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Does oxygen cause fire?

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Does rain cause flood?

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What it means,
essentially, then,

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if you look at these
three questions going

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from very philosophical point
of view, that life cause death,

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of course, you need
life before you can die.

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Just because if you are
not alive, you cannot die,

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but does it cause it?

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The same thing with
oxygen. Will oxygen--

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does it cause fire?

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Why is this important?

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Because right now, I'm
sitting in my room.

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I have oxygen, but
there's no fire.

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But think about the situation
really about maybe 5,000 years

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ago, when we did not
know about all of this,

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and we had a lot of fire
in many different places.

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Then you are a scientifically
minded individual,

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you went and measure
everywhere, and you

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find that, in every place there
is a fire, there is oxygen.

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So then you have a theory now.

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That theory tells you
oxygen cause fire.

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It's a good theory because I
don't think-- basically, think

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about it 5,000 years ago.

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I did not know any
of this chemistry.

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I did not know oxygen.
But I found out

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certain things are present
in all situations when

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there is fire.

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So now, I am basically
very brilliant.

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I came up with the theory--

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oxygen cause fire.

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So this is the fundamental
problem of cause and effect,

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or observing certain things by
observing certain other things

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and trying to link them.

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So what I argue that this
is really fundamentally

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what scientific
methods are all about.

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You take observations, then
you formulate a hypothesis,

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and then you test it,
and then you refine it.

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So now, if you are
5,000 years ago,

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then how do you know that
oxygen is not causing the fire?

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What do you have to do?

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This is where this idea of
necessary sufficient conditions

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become extremely problematic.

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In this particular case, now
you know that, for example,

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in my room right now, I'm
sitting here, there is oxygen,

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but there's no fire.

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So that means, why
it's not there?

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[INAUDIBLE] is necessary,
but not sufficient.

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What is sufficient, then?

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You need to have some trigger.

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If you have a trigger,
then it will start fires.

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We will now start basically--
put some fire here, maybe

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with a candle or
something that makes

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my house may get into fire.

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So there's the distinction
we need to make,

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but this is, right now,
may seem very obvious.

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But when you get
into the messiness

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of the transboundary
water management

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or other complex
problems, there are many,

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many causes can
create an outcome.

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Many, many causes can create
something that you see.

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So fire is what you see.

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Then you try to
attribute some cause,

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and then you get into this idea
of necessary and sufficient

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conditions.

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What we are arguing
really, in complexity,

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that no, in complexity,
problems are the problems

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which are complex, where many,
many variables and actors

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and institutions are
interacting with each other.

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You simply cannot isolate
cause and effect very cleanly.

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There are causes, of
course, but those are not

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easily identifiable.

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As a result, you
get into trouble.

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What happens, really?

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You may identify
something as cause,

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then very quickly you find
out that is not the case.

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And you are seeing this with
COVID-19 over the last 14

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months.

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We have attributed
to many, many things

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there's a causal
conditions, then

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later on, we found
out they may not be.

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And we even found out that
all kinds of solutions,

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starting from using
bleach from our president,

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but these are all
essentially just trying

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to relate some
arbitrarily linked things.

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And in the simplest
case, people would

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say that there are
some correlation maybe.

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And you know the correlation
is not causation, but that's--

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we said this is very cliche.

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We're not interested.

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We are fundamentally challenging
this idea of cause and effect,

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that you simply cannot identify
cause and effect very cleanly

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as you can in some other cases.

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Even in the simplest case,
does rain cause flood?

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And one of us said, yes.

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Yes, it does.

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In most cases, it does, but
in many cases, it do not.

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So think of, really,
in Boston, it

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was not raining for
the last several days.

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Now, if it rains
one inch, there'll

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be no flood because
most of the water

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will essentially infiltrate
and go to the ground.

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Now, if it rains for three
days in a row, yes, basically,

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soil will get saturated.

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You'll get flood.

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So that means you
need some conditions.

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So here, rain is a
necessary condition,

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but it's not a
sufficient condition.

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The problem of this
type of analysis

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really came if you go back now.

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Where is this idea of
necessary and sufficient came?

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So I did dig basically
deeper into this.

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It came from geometry.

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In geometry, it is
very precise because I

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need to have four sides
to have a rectangle,

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and with 90 degree angle.

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I need to have three
sides to have a triangle.

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There is no way around it.

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So I can explicitly
say, what are

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the necessary and sufficient
conditions for something

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to be considered a triangle?

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That is not the case for
many physical systems.

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More importantly,
many coupled systems,

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like where you have natural
systems and human systems,

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like our transboundary
water problem, where

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you have natural
systems, so water

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is getting coupled with the
human systems of managing

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it and governing it.

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When they're coupled, the
systems become complex.

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This notion of necessary
and sufficient conditions

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are not good enough.

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So I'll stop here just
to give you pause.

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See what you think
about this distinction

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between necessary
sufficient conditions.

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Then we'll go into
enabling conditions.

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PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
I presume we don't

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have to wait 5,000 years to make
judgments about such things,

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and I'm interested
in how you think

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we know enough to say that's
only correlation, that's

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not causation.

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And is it really--

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could it be a function of time
and perspective and experience,

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and that there's not really a
method to know that quickly?

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PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yes,
we'll get into something.

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Basically, I did
not have a chance

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to discuss this with you.

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So we are basically
making distinctions now

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between two types of facts, and
this is part of the discussion

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that we have today.

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So one thing that,
over time, that we

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have learned this idea
of scientific method

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and scientific facts.

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Another thing that
basically we are [INAUDIBLE]

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has been used in social
science for quite some time

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called social facts.

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And we are making a sharper
distinction between these two

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right now, so what I argue
really in this particular case,

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that scientific
facts are basically

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a particular type of facts.

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Those facts are verifiable,
reproducible, replicable.

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Those will not depend on
daily perspective or notion.

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They may depend on
matters over time,

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but there is a way
to get around this.

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That's the whole idea
of scientific method,

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so we'll talk about that.

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Social fact, on the other
hand, does not have to be true.

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Does not even have
to be verifiable.

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It's just, we believe.

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It's just that we
accept it as reality.

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And that is fine, too, and
we have done many of these.

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For example, this whole idea
of currency is a social fact.

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We give tremendous
amount of value

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now to this something
green called dollar,

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and whether I'm in Bangladesh
or in Boston doesn't matter.

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Everybody accepts it.

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Whether they believe in
me, whether I am a atheist

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or I'm agnostic or I am
Muslim does not matter.

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You accept it that
this is something

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that everybody thinks is good.

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And now, think about
what is happening

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with the Iranian currency.

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It has been
significantly devalued

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because of all this embargo
that we have created.

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So that is really a
paper, and that paper

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has certain value because
everybody in the world

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thinks the dollar
is very valuable.

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This is social fact,
and there is no way

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to justify whether
this is true or not.

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It is true right now.

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I can use it anywhere
I want, but I do not

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know what will happen to this
really 10 years from now.

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So those are the
distinctions we need to make,

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and we will make those
distinctions when

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we are talking about scientific
fact and social fact.

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In this particular
case of your fire

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can be basically determined
by scientific method

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because what can we do really?

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Even 5,000 years, we
didn't have to go that far.

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We can find out really that,
although oxygen is necessary,

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it does not create
fire everywhere.

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So that means something
else has to happen,

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so that is a systematic
way of doing experiments

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and then to find that out.

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But I have seen few places where
there is fire there is oxygen,

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so my immediate conclusion could
be that oxygen causes fire.

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Then there has to be question,
and we find over time.

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So let's go with this enabling.

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So what we are
saying here, that we

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need three enabling
conditions, and I

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was careful not to use this
idea of necessary and sufficient

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anymore.

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So three enabling
conditions are needed

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for any boundary crossing
complex water agreement

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to be initiated,
implemented, and sustained.

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So this is a very big
claim we're making here.

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So whether you are working
with the Indus treaty

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or you are working with Ganges,
what we are saying then,

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Mashroof, if you want to be
basically writing your Ganges

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treaty for 2026, yeah,
we want to do it.

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We need to be very careful
about these three conditions.

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You may say no, no, I
need something else.

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Then we'll talk about this.

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But what I am saying that, at
least these three are needed.

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So what are these three?

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The first one is there has
to be an active recognition

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of interdependencies,
meaning that if you need

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to sign a Ganges treaty
between India and Bangladesh,

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they have to actively
recognize interdependencies.

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India has to recognize
that Bangladesh exists,

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and they need them.

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Just saying that because
India is upstream,

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Bangladesh is downstream.

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Of course, there is already
interdependency there,

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but that's not good enough.

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What is happening right
now, if you think about it,

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like Animesh, and we worked on
a little bit with Brahmaputra,

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Brahmaputra is creating
serious problems

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between China and India, but
there is no active recognition

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00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,470
right now.

252
00:12:05,470 --> 00:12:07,960
China, India, although
they're independent,

253
00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:09,850
is saying that you
are using our water,

254
00:12:09,850 --> 00:12:11,780
and we are in serious trouble.

255
00:12:11,780 --> 00:12:16,510
But they have never, so far,
actively recognized this.

256
00:12:16,510 --> 00:12:18,640
As a result, really,
what we argued that, no,

257
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,860
I don't think they're
going to go to any treaty.

258
00:12:20,860 --> 00:12:23,050
And they are not right
now, although there

259
00:12:23,050 --> 00:12:25,650
is a lot of noise,
a lot of discussion,

260
00:12:25,650 --> 00:12:28,840
a lot of international
forum, international funding

261
00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,590
agency trying to find out what
is going on in Brahmaputra.

262
00:12:32,590 --> 00:12:35,710
What I'm arguing that I'm
yet to see anything that

263
00:12:35,710 --> 00:12:38,440
is tangible happening
in the Brahmaputra,

264
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,860
so if you have to ask me, these
are dangerous game to play.

265
00:12:41,860 --> 00:12:44,110
In terms of prediction,
there would not

266
00:12:44,110 --> 00:12:49,270
be a Brahmaputra treaty signed
unless this recognition is

267
00:12:49,270 --> 00:12:54,740
active between China
and India, and that

268
00:12:54,740 --> 00:12:57,210
is exactly what happened really
if you look at Indus Water

269
00:12:57,210 --> 00:12:57,710
Treaty.

270
00:12:57,710 --> 00:13:02,510
Indus Water Treaty was signed in
1960 between Pakistan and India

271
00:13:02,510 --> 00:13:05,450
because they actively recognized
that this is important.

272
00:13:05,450 --> 00:13:09,140
About the same time,
President Johnson from the US

273
00:13:09,140 --> 00:13:13,310
sent another envoy to
Israel and Palistine

274
00:13:13,310 --> 00:13:15,200
to have Jordan treaty.

275
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,120
Jordan treaty was not
signed until 1994.

276
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,080
So why one was signed in
1969, another was in 1994?

277
00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:32,533
In both cases, US was
basically a significant player.

278
00:13:32,533 --> 00:13:34,200
So you need to think
about those treaty.

279
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:38,570
Then I say, yeah, look, at that
time, they did not recognize.

280
00:13:38,570 --> 00:13:43,120
Jordan did not recognize Israel
is important or vice versa.

281
00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,360
So as a result, it
took a long time.

282
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,490
In 1994, they came,
and basically, they

283
00:13:47,490 --> 00:13:48,510
signed the peace treaty.

284
00:13:48,510 --> 00:13:51,700
Part of that was a
water treaty, too.

285
00:13:51,700 --> 00:13:54,220
So you just think about
those two cases between Indus

286
00:13:54,220 --> 00:13:56,800
and Jordan, then you
get some clue really

287
00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,100
what this enabling
condition 1 means.

288
00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:02,650
Second one is that, I'm sure
you've talked about this,

289
00:14:02,650 --> 00:14:05,060
mutual value creation.

290
00:14:05,060 --> 00:14:07,900
So just because you've
recognized the problem,

291
00:14:07,900 --> 00:14:10,100
and you have a conflict,
is not good enough.

292
00:14:10,100 --> 00:14:11,800
Now, you have to
see, really, can you

293
00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,250
create some mutual value
through negotiation

294
00:14:15,250 --> 00:14:16,630
that both parties will benefit?

295
00:14:19,580 --> 00:14:23,460
Because otherwise, you have
limited amount of water,

296
00:14:23,460 --> 00:14:25,220
and you have no
way to divide this.

297
00:14:25,220 --> 00:14:27,680
And your actual
need is much more

298
00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,720
than what is actually
available, then

299
00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,032
how do you get around this?

300
00:14:32,032 --> 00:14:33,740
So only way then you
can get around this,

301
00:14:33,740 --> 00:14:35,570
if you create some
mutual value, and then

302
00:14:35,570 --> 00:14:37,050
you can do it many
different ways,

303
00:14:37,050 --> 00:14:40,790
I'm sure Larry and Animesh
has given you ideas of,

304
00:14:40,790 --> 00:14:42,770
really, how to
create mutual values.

305
00:14:42,770 --> 00:14:44,240
How do you connect
different type

306
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,460
of sectors and different
resources, and so on?

307
00:14:47,460 --> 00:14:49,280
You don't have to
talk about water only.

308
00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:50,300
You can bring in food.

309
00:14:50,300 --> 00:14:51,560
You can bring in energy.

310
00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:52,970
You can bring in security.

311
00:14:52,970 --> 00:14:55,340
You can bring in military power.

312
00:14:55,340 --> 00:14:57,950
All kinds of things can be done.

313
00:14:57,950 --> 00:15:01,190
DR. GAIN: So to
discuss these things,

314
00:15:01,190 --> 00:15:05,600
if we consider this
Ganges example,

315
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,570
we already had the Ganges
treaty, but in my view,

316
00:15:09,570 --> 00:15:15,500
this mutual value creation
didn't happen until now.

317
00:15:15,500 --> 00:15:18,000
But already the treaty
has been signed.

318
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,570
So what do you say about that?

319
00:15:20,570 --> 00:15:25,220
Although this enabling
condition didn't meet,

320
00:15:25,220 --> 00:15:30,840
but there is a treaty
or negotiation?

321
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,340
PROFESSOR ISLAM:
Notice the EC here,

322
00:15:32,340 --> 00:15:35,040
we said the initiative
implemented and sustained.

323
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:35,700
DR. GAIN: Yeah.

324
00:15:35,700 --> 00:15:37,408
PROFESSOR ISLAM:: So
yes, you can have it

325
00:15:37,408 --> 00:15:39,150
because you have it for--

326
00:15:39,150 --> 00:15:41,790
basically, all the mutual
value fully was not done,

327
00:15:41,790 --> 00:15:43,498
but it was done partly.

328
00:15:43,498 --> 00:15:44,790
There were certain things done.

329
00:15:44,790 --> 00:15:47,940
For example, Bangladesh
could have told India

330
00:15:47,940 --> 00:15:51,690
that, look, if we want
to have this treaty now,

331
00:15:51,690 --> 00:15:54,860
you want transit,
we'll give you transit.

332
00:15:54,860 --> 00:15:57,590
So India wanted transit
really from, basically,

333
00:15:57,590 --> 00:15:59,660
to go through
Bangladesh to Tripura.

334
00:15:59,660 --> 00:16:01,620
See, they want to do
this, said let's do this.

335
00:16:01,620 --> 00:16:04,700
The Bangladesh trying to
do this Ganges barrage now,

336
00:16:04,700 --> 00:16:08,570
so for Ganges barrage, India
may get flooded a little bit.

337
00:16:08,570 --> 00:16:11,703
Can that be brought
into the picture?

338
00:16:11,703 --> 00:16:13,120
So the issue is
that basically you

339
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:14,590
have to bring in other issues.

340
00:16:14,590 --> 00:16:18,010
Those are now basically
being discussed in Bangladesh

341
00:16:18,010 --> 00:16:18,850
right now.

342
00:16:18,850 --> 00:16:21,400
If you think about what
is the particular problem

343
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:26,620
with the Ganges, Ganges is not
a problem for the flood season.

344
00:16:26,620 --> 00:16:29,070
The problem is really
the dry season.

345
00:16:29,070 --> 00:16:30,940
See, in the dry
season, the flow goes

346
00:16:30,940 --> 00:16:36,010
down so low that we have serious
issues of water shortage.

347
00:16:36,010 --> 00:16:38,210
So take a hypothetical example--

348
00:16:38,210 --> 00:16:40,480
if you take the entire
water, basically

349
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,930
during the dry season, it's
about 4,000 [INAUDIBLE]..

350
00:16:43,930 --> 00:16:48,130
Still, it would not be good
enough to keep the Kolkata port

351
00:16:48,130 --> 00:16:49,090
navigable.

352
00:16:49,090 --> 00:16:52,060
One of the primary reasons
that India wanted to build

353
00:16:52,060 --> 00:16:56,260
the Farakka barrage was to
keep Kolkata port navigable,

354
00:16:56,260 --> 00:17:00,190
but in the dry season, the flow
goes so low, it still cannot--

355
00:17:00,190 --> 00:17:02,000
even they have
taken all the water.

356
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,869
So that means they have to come
up with alternative sources.

357
00:17:04,869 --> 00:17:07,420
Can they use ground water?

358
00:17:07,420 --> 00:17:11,530
Can this basically store
water during the flood season

359
00:17:11,530 --> 00:17:13,359
over extended
period of the river?

360
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,140
That is what Bangladesh
proposed in the Ganges barrage.

361
00:17:17,140 --> 00:17:21,010
So this is a over 50
mile river that will

362
00:17:21,010 --> 00:17:23,770
be using as a storage device.

363
00:17:23,770 --> 00:17:25,780
Because Bangladesh is
a very flat country,

364
00:17:25,780 --> 00:17:28,030
we cannot create another dam.

365
00:17:28,030 --> 00:17:31,090
So that's another
mutual value creation

366
00:17:31,090 --> 00:17:33,312
option can be explored.

367
00:17:33,312 --> 00:17:35,270
AUDIENCE: Let me ask you
a question, professor.

368
00:17:35,270 --> 00:17:36,838
PROFESSOR: Please.

369
00:17:36,838 --> 00:17:38,880
AUDIENCE: So you said
something very interesting,

370
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,190
that creating mutual values.

371
00:17:41,190 --> 00:17:43,260
From what I understood--

372
00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:44,430
I might be wrong--

373
00:17:44,430 --> 00:17:46,740
that anything goes.

374
00:17:46,740 --> 00:17:51,960
So one of the tension
between Bangladesh and India

375
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,120
is Bangladesh being
used as a vessel

376
00:17:57,120 --> 00:18:01,170
to create trouble in
its Seven Sisters, which

377
00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:03,750
is why it is of India's
interest to maintain

378
00:18:03,750 --> 00:18:05,560
the security in Bangladesh.

379
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:11,820
So I'm wondering if that sort
of value can be created even--

380
00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:14,130
I mean, can this be used
as a bargaining chip?

381
00:18:14,130 --> 00:18:16,170
So that is what I want to know.

382
00:18:16,170 --> 00:18:17,375
PROFESSOR: Definitely, yes.

383
00:18:17,375 --> 00:18:18,750
I'll tell you
something that is--

384
00:18:18,750 --> 00:18:20,520
I think you hit
it exactly right.

385
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,700
So about three years ago, when
we have our water diplomacy

386
00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:25,440
workshop, and
Larry may remember,

387
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,950
we have four individuals
from Bangladesh

388
00:18:28,950 --> 00:18:32,760
foreign ministry came
from foreign ministry

389
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,240
really to learn about water
diplomacy in our workshop.

390
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,370
And their primary
concern was that they

391
00:18:38,370 --> 00:18:40,890
want to work on the water
treaty, what would they do?

392
00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:43,170
So we discuss the
Seven Sisters issue,

393
00:18:43,170 --> 00:18:45,690
and we discussed that this is
an issue that, yeah, this is

394
00:18:45,690 --> 00:18:48,030
a security problem for India.

395
00:18:48,030 --> 00:18:50,760
Can that be used,
that Bangladesh

396
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:52,630
will create
opportunity for that,

397
00:18:52,630 --> 00:18:56,700
so that these insurgencies do
not create problem for India?

398
00:18:56,700 --> 00:19:00,540
Yes, this is open
for discussion.

399
00:19:00,540 --> 00:19:03,180
You can link that
with basically water.

400
00:19:03,180 --> 00:19:05,102
AUDIENCE: In that
case, so I can actually

401
00:19:05,102 --> 00:19:06,810
bring security where
I work [INAUDIBLE]??

402
00:19:06,810 --> 00:19:07,530
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yes, you can.

403
00:19:07,530 --> 00:19:10,350
You can-- and then definitely,
and this is a relevant problem

404
00:19:10,350 --> 00:19:14,430
for India to basically keep
taking care of those Seven

405
00:19:14,430 --> 00:19:18,000
Sisters and this insurgency
is a serious security problem.

406
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,780
And Bangladesh can help.

407
00:19:20,780 --> 00:19:25,010
And also, Bangladesh can
be used as a transit.

408
00:19:25,010 --> 00:19:30,180
But then, Bangladesh has to
ask something else in return.

409
00:19:30,180 --> 00:19:31,830
That is why the
discussion must go on.

410
00:19:31,830 --> 00:19:34,610
This is a discussion I had
with the foreign minister.

411
00:19:34,610 --> 00:19:36,780
And even after that,
so I went to Bangladesh

412
00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:39,720
and we did have a workshop
on water diplomacy

413
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,540
within the Foreign,
basically, Ministry.

414
00:19:42,540 --> 00:19:44,430
And then pandemic started.

415
00:19:44,430 --> 00:19:46,572
Of course, then we got stuck.

416
00:19:46,572 --> 00:19:48,030
The difficulty,
I'll tell you, this

417
00:19:48,030 --> 00:19:50,860
is just not to be shared
with Bangladesh government.

418
00:19:50,860 --> 00:19:55,250
So I think the difficulty
that we have in Bangladesh--

419
00:19:55,250 --> 00:19:57,750
many of these ministries are
extremely, I think I would say,

420
00:19:57,750 --> 00:19:58,620
progressive.

421
00:19:58,620 --> 00:20:01,850
But there is no system memory.

422
00:20:01,850 --> 00:20:04,600
Meaning that water secretary
is water secretary right now.

423
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,500
Suddenly, he gets transferred
to transportation.

424
00:20:08,500 --> 00:20:10,900
That memory doesn't
exist, that basically he

425
00:20:10,900 --> 00:20:12,080
needs to do certain things.

426
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,965
And that does not continue
to the next secretary.

427
00:20:14,965 --> 00:20:19,750
So as a result, really, you
reinvent everything every time.

428
00:20:19,750 --> 00:20:21,426
And that's a problem.

429
00:20:21,426 --> 00:20:24,140
AUDIENCE: And then the lack of
institutional memory is like,

430
00:20:24,140 --> 00:20:26,240
it's a serious issue
in developing countries

431
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,350
like Bangladesh.

432
00:20:27,350 --> 00:20:28,560
I completely agree.

433
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,680
I work for the government
so I understand.

434
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,130
PROFESSOR ISLAM: So that's
a different problem.

435
00:20:32,130 --> 00:20:33,410
So that's the way
we'll go later, maybe.

436
00:20:33,410 --> 00:20:34,868
So the third one
that we're seeing,

437
00:20:34,868 --> 00:20:36,750
this adaptive regime
of governance.

438
00:20:36,750 --> 00:20:39,590
And that is also very important
because you need to anticipate.

439
00:20:39,590 --> 00:20:42,770
I think, Hossain, you are saying
that, yes, in industry there

440
00:20:42,770 --> 00:20:44,570
is no climate change dimension.

441
00:20:44,570 --> 00:20:47,900
Because in 1960, we did not
know even climate existed,

442
00:20:47,900 --> 00:20:49,650
let alone climate change.

443
00:20:49,650 --> 00:20:51,230
So we have no idea about this.

444
00:20:51,230 --> 00:20:53,640
So but, they did not
put any provision.

445
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,910
But they did put some
other provision though.

446
00:20:55,910 --> 00:20:59,150
If you look at the industry,
they had a technical provision

447
00:20:59,150 --> 00:21:02,330
that they said that if there
is a technical problem,

448
00:21:02,330 --> 00:21:04,400
that Pakistan and
India cannot resolve,

449
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,238
somebody else should
come into the picture.

450
00:21:07,238 --> 00:21:08,780
You know what that
somebody else was?

451
00:21:11,290 --> 00:21:13,292
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I
have mentioned it already.

452
00:21:13,292 --> 00:21:14,500
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Oh, you did?

453
00:21:14,500 --> 00:21:15,540
OK.

454
00:21:15,540 --> 00:21:20,410
All right, so that
was brilliant.

455
00:21:20,410 --> 00:21:22,030
That was brilliant.

456
00:21:22,030 --> 00:21:23,650
The question is
basically, why there

457
00:21:23,650 --> 00:21:27,520
might be precedent has to be
basically somebody has to come

458
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,230
in and then appoint a body.

459
00:21:29,230 --> 00:21:32,260
Because they thought MIT is
a good technical institution.

460
00:21:32,260 --> 00:21:35,260
They may still exist for
50, 60 years from now.

461
00:21:35,260 --> 00:21:39,410
And they will have no interest
in India and Pakistan.

462
00:21:39,410 --> 00:21:40,500
So this was brilliant.

463
00:21:40,500 --> 00:21:42,550
So when you are trying
to design this treaty

464
00:21:42,550 --> 00:21:44,890
for Indus or for
the Ganges, you need

465
00:21:44,890 --> 00:21:46,180
to be also thinking forward.

466
00:21:46,180 --> 00:21:48,130
Basically, you don't
know what will happen,

467
00:21:48,130 --> 00:21:49,510
whether climate
change will come.

468
00:21:49,510 --> 00:21:53,802
What will happen if another
COVID-22 comes in, who knows?

469
00:21:53,802 --> 00:21:55,260
But there has to
be some provisions

470
00:21:55,260 --> 00:21:57,120
so that this can be used.

471
00:21:57,120 --> 00:21:58,680
What we are doing
in this enabling

472
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,950
condition hypothesis is this--

473
00:22:01,950 --> 00:22:04,800
if they are not in
place, your treaty

474
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,750
is not going to be
basically implemented well.

475
00:22:08,750 --> 00:22:10,250
It cannot be
sustained very well.

476
00:22:10,250 --> 00:22:11,700
That's a big claim.

477
00:22:11,700 --> 00:22:15,380
So I want to hear or
maybe you can do it

478
00:22:15,380 --> 00:22:20,920
later as well that, find out
a treaty that was initiated,

479
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,690
implemented, and sustained
for a long period of time.

480
00:22:23,690 --> 00:22:27,550
But one of these
conditions were missing.

481
00:22:27,550 --> 00:22:29,770
That would be a good exercise.

482
00:22:29,770 --> 00:22:31,150
I could not find one yet.

483
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,190
But are these going
to guarantee success?

484
00:22:36,190 --> 00:22:38,075
No.

485
00:22:38,075 --> 00:22:39,700
They're not going to
guarantee success.

486
00:22:39,700 --> 00:22:44,200
But you can see, these
are minimum subset.

487
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,840
The one example I usually
give to make it simpler

488
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,970
is that if you want
to get a PhD, what

489
00:22:49,970 --> 00:22:53,230
are the enabling conditions.

490
00:22:53,230 --> 00:22:56,880
Number 1 is obvious, I think,
that you have to be alive.

491
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,180
Otherwise, you cannot do it.

492
00:22:58,180 --> 00:22:59,130
So fine.

493
00:22:59,130 --> 00:23:02,268
Number 2 is that you need
to have a bachelor's.

494
00:23:02,268 --> 00:23:04,060
Unless you are getting
an honorary degree--

495
00:23:04,060 --> 00:23:05,727
we're not talking
about honorary degree.

496
00:23:05,727 --> 00:23:08,530
If you said earn PhD, you
need to have a bachelor's.

497
00:23:08,530 --> 00:23:10,050
So which bachelor's,
I do not know.

498
00:23:10,050 --> 00:23:11,730
It could be in
political science.

499
00:23:11,730 --> 00:23:14,820
It could be in hydrology,
could be in computer science.

500
00:23:14,820 --> 00:23:15,570
Does not matter.

501
00:23:15,570 --> 00:23:17,403
But you need to have a
bachelor's, at least.

502
00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:24,043
Everything else are situational.

503
00:23:24,043 --> 00:23:25,210
You need to have an advisor.

504
00:23:25,210 --> 00:23:26,180
You need to have funding.

505
00:23:26,180 --> 00:23:27,222
You need to have a topic.

506
00:23:27,222 --> 00:23:28,760
All kinds of things
will be needed.

507
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,580
And then, of course, you have
to pass the qualifying exam.

508
00:23:31,580 --> 00:23:33,500
A department has
different requirements.

509
00:23:33,500 --> 00:23:35,390
You have to take this
course, that course.

510
00:23:35,390 --> 00:23:37,610
Those are called
situational conditions.

511
00:23:37,610 --> 00:23:40,070
If first two enabling
conditions are not there,

512
00:23:40,070 --> 00:23:42,640
you're not getting.

513
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,680
But just because you
have those first two

514
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,220
doesn't mean that
you'll get PhD.

515
00:23:46,220 --> 00:23:47,960
No.

516
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,602
So that's what
the difference is.

517
00:23:50,602 --> 00:23:52,060
So when you're
thinking about this,

518
00:23:52,060 --> 00:23:54,200
you're thinking
along those lines.

519
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,440
So these are not necessary
and sufficient conditions.

520
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,482
I'm not telling you what
will be necessary to get

521
00:23:58,482 --> 00:24:01,337
a PhD, what will be
sufficient to get a PhD.

522
00:24:01,337 --> 00:24:02,920
But I'm just telling
you that you need

523
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,480
these two enabling conditions.

524
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,450
Then, you need many, many
situational conditions.

525
00:24:08,450 --> 00:24:11,270
And those situational conditions
are context dependent.

526
00:24:11,270 --> 00:24:15,260
It will depend whether it is at
MIT or Tufts or somewhere else,

527
00:24:15,260 --> 00:24:18,500
whether you're in engineering
versus in urban planning.

528
00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:21,140
They have different
requirements.

529
00:24:21,140 --> 00:24:24,950
DR. GAIN: But then,
what is the difference

530
00:24:24,950 --> 00:24:30,118
between a necessary condition
and enabling condition?

531
00:24:30,118 --> 00:24:32,970
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Oh no,
necessary conditions

532
00:24:32,970 --> 00:24:33,973
could be many.

533
00:24:33,973 --> 00:24:36,390
I'm telling you that you don't
need more than these three.

534
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,530
I can come up with many
necessary conditions

535
00:24:41,530 --> 00:24:43,390
that may not still satisfy all.

536
00:24:43,390 --> 00:24:48,152
And see, the reason
I think I want

537
00:24:48,152 --> 00:24:50,110
to get away from this
necessary and sufficient,

538
00:24:50,110 --> 00:24:54,130
as we mentioned, this really
came from a very structured

539
00:24:54,130 --> 00:24:56,830
discipline called geometry.

540
00:24:56,830 --> 00:25:00,610
So I'm trying to solve
a geometric problem.

541
00:25:00,610 --> 00:25:04,420
Now I want to apply it to
my messy transboundary water

542
00:25:04,420 --> 00:25:05,988
management problem.

543
00:25:05,988 --> 00:25:08,030
That's the reason I want
to make the distinction.

544
00:25:08,030 --> 00:25:11,130
Because here, if you look at
the news and look at writings,

545
00:25:11,130 --> 00:25:14,150
you'll see that, yeah, this
was not a necessary condition.

546
00:25:14,150 --> 00:25:16,250
We did not satisfy
necessary conditions.

547
00:25:16,250 --> 00:25:19,793
Then you ask them, OK, so what
are the necessary conditions.

548
00:25:19,793 --> 00:25:21,210
So to give you a
simple example, I

549
00:25:21,210 --> 00:25:23,910
tell you that I want to
go from here to New York.

550
00:25:27,020 --> 00:25:29,300
So what are the necessary
and sufficient conditions?

551
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,110
Can you exhaustively write this?

552
00:25:36,110 --> 00:25:37,740
AUDIENCE: No, there
would be thousands.

553
00:25:37,740 --> 00:25:39,943
So it is not possible
to cover them all.

554
00:25:39,943 --> 00:25:41,110
PROFESSOR ISLAM: You got it.

555
00:25:41,110 --> 00:25:44,290
So this is basically
a very large space.

556
00:25:44,290 --> 00:25:46,670
I may decide to walk.

557
00:25:46,670 --> 00:25:48,430
I may decide to take a plane.

558
00:25:48,430 --> 00:25:50,650
I'll take a bike.

559
00:25:50,650 --> 00:25:55,110
I'll take a bike and
then I will take a boat.

560
00:25:55,110 --> 00:25:56,040
Or I have a donkey.

561
00:25:58,610 --> 00:26:03,520
So I essentially cannot
exhaustively write down all

562
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:04,670
the conditions.

563
00:26:04,670 --> 00:26:05,920
That's what the difficulty is.

564
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,870
So that brings us
to something else

565
00:26:07,870 --> 00:26:11,300
that I want to start
maybe our talk.

566
00:26:11,300 --> 00:26:12,490
So let's start there.

567
00:26:12,490 --> 00:26:18,100
AUDIENCE: Legal language
sometimes like try to, I mean,

568
00:26:18,100 --> 00:26:19,630
make conditions
that are exhaustive.

569
00:26:19,630 --> 00:26:23,910
For example, if the
corporate of a chocolate

570
00:26:23,910 --> 00:26:26,640
is asked by a
lawyer, then he would

571
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:33,240
write that this chocolate has
to be from this particular tree.

572
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,800
And it cannot be consumed by
any other party without paying

573
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:42,190
the money to the original
company in any form.

574
00:26:42,190 --> 00:26:45,290
So in this way, they
can probably minimize--

575
00:26:45,290 --> 00:26:47,880
I don't know whether I
could make sense or not.

576
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,920
But the legal language
sometimes tries

577
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,318
to cover all those
conditions that you say,

578
00:26:53,318 --> 00:26:54,735
that there are so
many conditions.

579
00:26:54,735 --> 00:26:56,100
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure.

580
00:26:56,100 --> 00:26:57,518
So this is where
essentially now I

581
00:26:57,518 --> 00:26:58,810
think you got it exactly right.

582
00:26:58,810 --> 00:27:00,420
So this is what
basically-- although we

583
00:27:00,420 --> 00:27:02,470
don't want to talk about
our previous procedures.

584
00:27:02,470 --> 00:27:06,060
So now if you come into
the problem, really,

585
00:27:06,060 --> 00:27:09,720
if you want to define really
what the presidency should

586
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:15,000
entail, does president have
to really file taxes and make

587
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:15,720
it clear.

588
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,690
This was not explicit.

589
00:27:18,690 --> 00:27:22,470
It was not explicitly he has to
file taxes and make it public.

590
00:27:22,470 --> 00:27:24,000
So he decided not to do it.

591
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,890
Now the question is,
how many things can you

592
00:27:25,890 --> 00:27:27,960
write down explicitly
the president has to do.

593
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,610
Then I have to even tell you,
when he goes to the bathroom,

594
00:27:30,610 --> 00:27:33,783
this is what he has to
use just to make it--

595
00:27:33,783 --> 00:27:34,700
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].

596
00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:35,575
PROFESSOR ISLAM: So--

597
00:27:35,575 --> 00:27:37,075
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

598
00:27:37,075 --> 00:27:40,070
PROFESSOR ISLAM: The problem is,
so this is exactly the point.

599
00:27:40,070 --> 00:27:42,590
So for the presidents
of the United States,

600
00:27:42,590 --> 00:27:45,410
how many things you can
explicitly write what

601
00:27:45,410 --> 00:27:48,230
he or she does really
as a president.

602
00:27:48,230 --> 00:27:49,440
We cannot do this.

603
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,680
So we are assuming
that certain things,

604
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,580
they will do because they
are morally responsible

605
00:27:55,580 --> 00:27:58,120
individuals.

606
00:27:58,120 --> 00:28:00,830
I cannot be explicit about them.

607
00:28:00,830 --> 00:28:02,660
Because if I make
it explicit, then it

608
00:28:02,660 --> 00:28:03,920
becomes essentially routine.

609
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,962
As you said, [INAUDIBLE],,
you can write it down,

610
00:28:05,962 --> 00:28:08,630
this particular chocolate
came from this particular tree

611
00:28:08,630 --> 00:28:12,220
and this can be eaten by only
this particular individual.

612
00:28:12,220 --> 00:28:13,690
Fine.

613
00:28:13,690 --> 00:28:17,332
But then how many
of them you write?

614
00:28:17,332 --> 00:28:19,790
That is where essential and
necessary sufficient conditions

615
00:28:19,790 --> 00:28:23,030
miserably fail, particularly
in the system when

616
00:28:23,030 --> 00:28:23,780
those are coupled.

617
00:28:26,620 --> 00:28:27,790
It can be fine.

618
00:28:27,790 --> 00:28:31,720
Right now, if you have asked
me, the best law that we have

619
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:33,460
is Newton's laws of gravity.

620
00:28:33,460 --> 00:28:37,330
What is it that
basically apple fall?

621
00:28:37,330 --> 00:28:39,910
An apple was falling
before Newton.

622
00:28:39,910 --> 00:28:41,350
We just did not understand this.

623
00:28:41,350 --> 00:28:44,350
He was brilliant to find
out a particular law that

624
00:28:44,350 --> 00:28:46,610
applies everywhere right now.

625
00:28:46,610 --> 00:28:49,310
Whether I'm in Bangladesh
or in Boston, apple falls.

626
00:28:49,310 --> 00:28:52,860
And I know that I can
explain it by gravity.

627
00:28:52,860 --> 00:28:54,740
So that's the law
which is, I would say,

628
00:28:54,740 --> 00:28:58,490
the physical law that is
replicable, verifiable,

629
00:28:58,490 --> 00:29:00,050
everywhere you go.

630
00:29:00,050 --> 00:29:02,990
Now to take an example
for water that I use

631
00:29:02,990 --> 00:29:06,320
is that water flows usually
downhill because of the energy

632
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,210
gradient.

633
00:29:08,210 --> 00:29:09,830
That's the physical law.

634
00:29:09,830 --> 00:29:13,240
But water also flows uphill.

635
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:17,500
For example, water flows uphill
in the American west to money.

636
00:29:17,500 --> 00:29:21,080
In my home on the second
floor, because I put a pump.

637
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,830
Otherwise, water cannot
go to my second floor.

638
00:29:24,830 --> 00:29:26,540
By gravity, it should go down.

639
00:29:26,540 --> 00:29:29,390
How could I get water in
my second floor bathroom?

640
00:29:29,390 --> 00:29:31,550
I get it because the
water is pressurized.

641
00:29:31,550 --> 00:29:34,760
So I can create conditions
that things can also

642
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,140
violate the physical laws.

643
00:29:38,140 --> 00:29:43,290
Now when those physical laws are
violated by human intentions,

644
00:29:43,290 --> 00:29:45,520
then you have a problem.

645
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,820
Like, for example,
Ganges was flowing fine.

646
00:29:48,820 --> 00:29:51,640
India decided to
build a barrage.

647
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,230
Barrage was not there.

648
00:29:53,230 --> 00:29:55,190
Now they can control it.

649
00:29:55,190 --> 00:29:57,790
So that's a physical
control of water,

650
00:29:57,790 --> 00:30:01,310
which is violating the
physical principles.

651
00:30:01,310 --> 00:30:04,010
And that's when our natural
systems and human systems

652
00:30:04,010 --> 00:30:06,590
are coupled, and then it
becomes a complex problem.

653
00:30:09,992 --> 00:30:12,146
Is it making sense?

654
00:30:12,146 --> 00:30:13,240
AUDIENCE: Yes, professor.

655
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,250
PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right.

656
00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:16,792
So here I think I'll
give you a quiz.

657
00:30:16,792 --> 00:30:17,792
And then we'll continue.

658
00:30:17,792 --> 00:30:19,390
So how many colors
do you see here?

659
00:30:23,838 --> 00:30:25,880
Water diplomacy-- A
Principled Pragmatic Approach

660
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,290
to Govern and Manage
Complex Societal Problems.

661
00:30:29,290 --> 00:30:30,490
How many colors?

662
00:30:30,490 --> 00:30:31,390
AUDIENCE: Three.

663
00:30:31,390 --> 00:30:31,870
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Three.

664
00:30:31,870 --> 00:30:32,380
Good.

665
00:30:32,380 --> 00:30:34,420
So remember three,
three is important here.

666
00:30:34,420 --> 00:30:36,990
Then I will tell
you something else.

667
00:30:36,990 --> 00:30:43,030
So water, diplomacy,
principled, pragmatic,

668
00:30:43,030 --> 00:30:46,300
govern, complex, problems.

669
00:30:46,300 --> 00:30:48,550
So put all kinds
of words-- and I'm

670
00:30:48,550 --> 00:30:51,190
sure you have heard many of
these words many, many times

671
00:30:51,190 --> 00:30:52,220
in this class.

672
00:30:52,220 --> 00:30:55,790
So how many colors are here?

673
00:30:55,790 --> 00:30:56,610
AUDIENCE: Seven.

674
00:30:56,610 --> 00:30:57,570
AUDIENCE: Seven.

675
00:30:57,570 --> 00:30:57,780
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Seven.

676
00:30:57,780 --> 00:30:57,990
Good.

677
00:30:57,990 --> 00:30:58,657
AUDIENCE: Seven.

678
00:30:58,657 --> 00:31:01,380
PROFESSOR ISLAM: So you have
three and then you have seven.

679
00:31:01,380 --> 00:31:04,140
So I'll just give you
one basically clue.

680
00:31:04,140 --> 00:31:06,970
And then we'll discuss this
at the end of the class.

681
00:31:06,970 --> 00:31:11,410
So if you really want to be
very scientific about this,

682
00:31:11,410 --> 00:31:13,360
there are only three colors--

683
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:18,450
RBG, red, blue, and green.

684
00:31:18,450 --> 00:31:24,390
Then, everywhere you go,
this seven color comes in.

685
00:31:24,390 --> 00:31:27,670
There are seven
colors of rainbow.

686
00:31:27,670 --> 00:31:30,240
There are seven heavens.

687
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,370
There are all kinds of
seven came into the picture.

688
00:31:32,370 --> 00:31:34,500
Where did this three and
seven then came from?

689
00:31:34,500 --> 00:31:35,600
I have only three color.

690
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,520
Why do I have seven?

691
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,750
Why do people say that there
are seven colors in rainbow?

692
00:31:42,750 --> 00:31:45,265
In reality, if you go to
the fundamental color,

693
00:31:45,265 --> 00:31:46,140
there are only three.

694
00:31:49,550 --> 00:31:53,270
Now if you go to your
computer, and if you

695
00:31:53,270 --> 00:31:57,640
have a 24-bit
machine, you probably

696
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,730
have about on the order
of eight million colors

697
00:32:01,730 --> 00:32:04,820
based on this three
combination of RBG.

698
00:32:04,820 --> 00:32:09,470
So I can go from three
to eight million.

699
00:32:09,470 --> 00:32:11,540
And now if you just
give you a color palette

700
00:32:11,540 --> 00:32:14,140
and I tell you that, fine
detail, what color is this,

701
00:32:14,140 --> 00:32:16,640
there is simply no way you can
fine detail unless I tell you

702
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,480
what those are.

703
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:19,630
So what is my point here?

704
00:32:19,630 --> 00:32:23,710
The point is that you
can take three things

705
00:32:23,710 --> 00:32:25,870
and put it in
different ways and you

706
00:32:25,870 --> 00:32:29,830
can get millions and
millions of combinations.

707
00:32:29,830 --> 00:32:32,290
Same thing is true for this
necessary and sufficient

708
00:32:32,290 --> 00:32:34,340
conditions.

709
00:32:34,340 --> 00:32:41,010
I can take three variables,
or three situations

710
00:32:41,010 --> 00:32:44,490
in a particular water
conflict, and arrange it

711
00:32:44,490 --> 00:32:46,200
in different ways.

712
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,480
I can get many,
many combinations.

713
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,570
So in this particular
from three to seven

714
00:32:51,570 --> 00:32:54,570
to millions, that is
the case, that means

715
00:32:54,570 --> 00:32:56,460
my necessary and
sufficient conditions

716
00:32:56,460 --> 00:32:59,100
will never be able
to be exhaustive.

717
00:32:59,100 --> 00:33:01,450
I cannot do it.

718
00:33:01,450 --> 00:33:03,850
Although, fundamentally,
they are related maybe

719
00:33:03,850 --> 00:33:05,777
to only three.

720
00:33:05,777 --> 00:33:07,360
But I cannot come
to that three level.

721
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,730
If I come to that three
level, it's too abstract.

722
00:33:10,730 --> 00:33:14,000
So that's why I put this
basically mumbo jumbo stuff

723
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,500
here.

724
00:33:14,500 --> 00:33:17,650
That basically you
have only 26 letters,

725
00:33:17,650 --> 00:33:20,920
but you can create a
Shakespeare to water diplomacy

726
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,690
book and everything
else in between

727
00:33:22,690 --> 00:33:25,270
by different
combinations of letters.

728
00:33:25,270 --> 00:33:29,980
That is exactly the point with
this interconnected systems.

729
00:33:29,980 --> 00:33:32,200
Your building blocks
may be very few.

730
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,180
But the way those
building blocks

731
00:33:34,180 --> 00:33:36,100
are interconnected
and interdependent

732
00:33:36,100 --> 00:33:37,900
may create different situations.

733
00:33:37,900 --> 00:33:40,390
And that has serious
implications in the way

734
00:33:40,390 --> 00:33:41,780
we think about water.

735
00:33:41,780 --> 00:33:44,270
So let's go there here.

736
00:33:44,270 --> 00:33:47,890
So I'll start with this
many faces of water crisis.

737
00:33:47,890 --> 00:33:51,190
If you think about it,
what is water crisis?

738
00:33:51,190 --> 00:33:54,110
Water crisis, if
you think about,

739
00:33:54,110 --> 00:33:57,010
they'll tell you that if
you have 20 liters of water

740
00:33:57,010 --> 00:33:59,890
per person per day from
an improved source,

741
00:33:59,890 --> 00:34:02,400
you have access to water.

742
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,400
Just an estimate definition,
and that definition

743
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,140
is used globally.

744
00:34:06,140 --> 00:34:09,350
Based on that definition, there
are about 760 million people

745
00:34:09,350 --> 00:34:12,370
who does not have
access to water.

746
00:34:12,370 --> 00:34:13,870
So this is what
we're trying to do--

747
00:34:13,870 --> 00:34:16,719
these are our SDG.

748
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,139
Now if you think about this,
this is really not true.

749
00:34:20,139 --> 00:34:22,179
This 760 million is not true.

750
00:34:22,179 --> 00:34:23,510
Why it's not true?

751
00:34:23,510 --> 00:34:28,980
There are about two billion
people lives in slums

752
00:34:28,980 --> 00:34:31,080
across the globe,
from Dakar slum

753
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,620
to Bombay slum to Nairobi
slums, and from Brazil.

754
00:34:34,620 --> 00:34:38,850
And these people are
not even counted.

755
00:34:38,850 --> 00:34:40,170
Why are not they counted?

756
00:34:40,170 --> 00:34:46,170
Because most of them are
in illegal government land.

757
00:34:46,170 --> 00:34:48,190
So government does not
provide them water.

758
00:34:48,190 --> 00:34:49,677
So they are not even counted.

759
00:34:49,677 --> 00:34:52,260
They don't have access to water
or access to-- doesn't matter.

760
00:34:55,130 --> 00:34:57,320
So who are these
760 million people?

761
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,920
These people are essentially
people in rural villages

762
00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:02,750
in Africa and Asia.

763
00:35:02,750 --> 00:35:04,810
So this is one problem
with access to water,

764
00:35:04,810 --> 00:35:06,370
definition of water crisis.

765
00:35:06,370 --> 00:35:10,425
On the other hand, when they
talk about water scarcity,

766
00:35:10,425 --> 00:35:11,800
they have a
different definition.

767
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:12,460
What is this?

768
00:35:12,460 --> 00:35:14,470
This is fewer than
1,000 cubic meters

769
00:35:14,470 --> 00:35:17,280
of water per person per year.

770
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,640
So if you're in
the US, if you have

771
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,190
1,000 cubic meters of
water per person per year,

772
00:35:22,190 --> 00:35:23,420
you are not water scarce.

773
00:35:23,420 --> 00:35:28,880
So Boston, for example, is not
water scarce, but Nevada is.

774
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:33,080
But as a whole, US is not.

775
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:38,150
That translates to 2,740
liters per person per day.

776
00:35:38,150 --> 00:35:42,330
Look at the difference
between 20 and 2,740--

777
00:35:42,330 --> 00:35:44,760
huge difference.

778
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,210
Do you have access to water,
versus, are you water scarce.

779
00:35:48,210 --> 00:35:50,160
These are two different things.

780
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,830
And we often then
get confused which

781
00:35:52,830 --> 00:35:54,540
are you trying to address.

782
00:35:54,540 --> 00:35:58,437
If you go to SDG, it's not
clear what they want to do.

783
00:35:58,437 --> 00:36:00,270
They have that thing
is goal seven, I think,

784
00:36:00,270 --> 00:36:01,320
is related to water.

785
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,150
And they have all
kinds of things there.

786
00:36:03,150 --> 00:36:06,942
But it's so, I would say,
nebulous that it's not clear

787
00:36:06,942 --> 00:36:08,650
exactly how they're
going to measure this

788
00:36:08,650 --> 00:36:11,360
and how they're going
to implement this.

789
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,680
So access to water is not
necessarily constrained

790
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,230
by availability
to water, really.

791
00:36:17,230 --> 00:36:19,630
It is something else.

792
00:36:19,630 --> 00:36:22,800
So when you want to
talk about water crises,

793
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:27,090
and your objective is to provide
water to a slum in Bangladesh,

794
00:36:27,090 --> 00:36:30,030
it's a very different
problem than saying

795
00:36:30,030 --> 00:36:32,520
that I want to have
water for agriculture

796
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,440
production in Bangladesh.

797
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,700
These are two
different problems.

798
00:36:37,700 --> 00:36:41,140
And oftentimes, we confuse them.

799
00:36:41,140 --> 00:36:43,600
And let's go to the next one.

800
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,140
So what are the scientific facts
versus societal problem here?

801
00:36:47,140 --> 00:36:48,970
More people die
from unsafe water

802
00:36:48,970 --> 00:36:52,350
than from all forms of
violence, including war.

803
00:36:52,350 --> 00:36:54,970
So these are statistical facts.

804
00:36:54,970 --> 00:36:56,620
There are also
economic analysis.

805
00:36:56,620 --> 00:36:59,560
Every dollar invested in
safe water and sanitation

806
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:04,168
yields anywhere between $5
to $27 in economic benefits.

807
00:37:04,168 --> 00:37:05,960
You don't have to agree
with that 5 or 27--

808
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:07,840
it's more than $1.

809
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,090
We're not going to the
economic argument here for now.

810
00:37:10,090 --> 00:37:11,890
But at least there
are many, many studies

811
00:37:11,890 --> 00:37:13,390
that has done this.

812
00:37:13,390 --> 00:37:17,510
That if I invest $1 right
now, I can get $5 to $27.

813
00:37:17,510 --> 00:37:19,180
So that means I can
make more money.

814
00:37:19,180 --> 00:37:21,480
Instead, I'm not doing it.

815
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,390
So what is the problem?

816
00:37:23,390 --> 00:37:26,840
And then I say, OK, 768 million
people lack access to water.

817
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,885
Two billion people are living
in high water scarcity region.

818
00:37:32,390 --> 00:37:35,000
So how come we're not
doing anything about this?

819
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,670
And this is the statistics I had
when I was a graduate student

820
00:37:37,670 --> 00:37:40,000
many, many years ago.

821
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,890
How could you have
a crisis, then

822
00:37:41,890 --> 00:37:43,362
you're not resolving
this crisis?

823
00:37:43,362 --> 00:37:44,695
So that means it's not a crisis.

824
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,060
So why it's not?

825
00:37:50,060 --> 00:37:51,440
Let's say that I am generous.

826
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,660
I want to make 50
liters, not 20--

827
00:37:54,660 --> 00:37:57,520
50 per person per day.

828
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:02,520
Give me $120 billion, I can do
it for everyone in the globe.

829
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:03,990
Look at the global GDP--

830
00:38:03,990 --> 00:38:06,360
$85 trillion.

831
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:11,320
Only 0.14% of global GDP.

832
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:12,930
So how come us as
a global community,

833
00:38:12,930 --> 00:38:16,230
we're so much basically
benevolent, so much generous,

834
00:38:16,230 --> 00:38:20,550
we cannot spend even 0.14%
of our GDP to give water

835
00:38:20,550 --> 00:38:23,410
to everyone?

836
00:38:23,410 --> 00:38:26,510
So the problem is not economic.

837
00:38:26,510 --> 00:38:30,740
Problem is not that we
don't have the technology.

838
00:38:30,740 --> 00:38:32,440
So how do I go then?

839
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,940
So this is where
I think maybe you

840
00:38:33,940 --> 00:38:38,750
can be a little bit more
creative as water diplomats,

841
00:38:38,750 --> 00:38:40,900
that these are not really
the argument that people

842
00:38:40,900 --> 00:38:41,400
are making.

843
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,440
We need to make different
types of arguments.

844
00:38:48,420 --> 00:38:50,000
So then it comes
to, basically, this

845
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,530
is the cover page of our book.

846
00:38:51,530 --> 00:38:53,030
So we are saying
that, look, I think

847
00:38:53,030 --> 00:38:55,580
when you look at this problem,
you need to look at this--

848
00:38:55,580 --> 00:38:56,960
there are natural
domain problem,

849
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,880
there are societal
domain problem.

850
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,840
These have been studied
forever, but they also

851
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,700
happen in a
politically real world.

852
00:39:05,700 --> 00:39:07,970
So in water diplomacy,
what we are arguing

853
00:39:07,970 --> 00:39:09,398
for last several
years that, look,

854
00:39:09,398 --> 00:39:11,190
you need to understand
the natural problem,

855
00:39:11,190 --> 00:39:12,860
you need to understand
the societal problem.

856
00:39:12,860 --> 00:39:14,990
You need to also understand
that this is happening

857
00:39:14,990 --> 00:39:17,400
in a politically real world.

858
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,460
So how do I combine these
scientific knowledge

859
00:39:19,460 --> 00:39:22,100
and social knowledge in
a politically real world

860
00:39:22,100 --> 00:39:26,060
where things will have some way
to at least have some traction?

861
00:39:26,060 --> 00:39:28,580
I don't have to discuss
this idea of, look,

862
00:39:28,580 --> 00:39:31,520
I only need 0.14% of GDP.

863
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,530
Still, people do not
have access to water.

864
00:39:33,530 --> 00:39:36,560
768 million people do
not have access to water.

865
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,430
These are all known problems.

866
00:39:38,430 --> 00:39:42,140
Go to any water literature
right now, any water crisis,

867
00:39:42,140 --> 00:39:46,360
you'll see these statistics
given everywhere.

868
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,148
So nothing is being done then.

869
00:39:49,148 --> 00:39:51,190
Those are the type of
questions we want to raise.

870
00:39:51,190 --> 00:39:52,990
And hopefully,
you guys will have

871
00:39:52,990 --> 00:39:55,622
some clue when you are
in your organization

872
00:39:55,622 --> 00:39:56,455
to have some impact.

873
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:02,000
So the reason I
think what we argue

874
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,740
that is happening, that
there are differences

875
00:40:04,740 --> 00:40:07,250
in political boundaries,
knowledge, know-how,

876
00:40:07,250 --> 00:40:07,940
management.

877
00:40:07,940 --> 00:40:12,470
These are all basically
happening at multiple scales.

878
00:40:12,470 --> 00:40:14,630
And these choices
are particularly

879
00:40:14,630 --> 00:40:17,330
problematic because
they cross boundaries.

880
00:40:17,330 --> 00:40:18,380
They have uncertainty.

881
00:40:18,380 --> 00:40:20,310
They have multiplicity
of values.

882
00:40:20,310 --> 00:40:22,730
So these are not
basically unknown.

883
00:40:22,730 --> 00:40:25,610
What we are basically hoping
do it with our water diplomacy

884
00:40:25,610 --> 00:40:28,700
framework is that we want
to explicitly recognize

885
00:40:28,700 --> 00:40:31,640
this and see how to at
least adjust some of it

886
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:35,150
so that we can be a little
bit better than what

887
00:40:35,150 --> 00:40:36,497
we were yesterday.

888
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,850
See, I may not be here
for another 30 years.

889
00:40:41,850 --> 00:40:46,840
So I could not see this
changing very much in 30 years.

890
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,360
In 30 years, we still
had the same number

891
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,200
of people dying out of this
lack of sanitation and water

892
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,930
across the globe.

893
00:40:54,930 --> 00:40:58,880
So are we basically dumb or
we are just too insensitive?

894
00:41:03,740 --> 00:41:06,620
So this is where essentially
we are standing here.

895
00:41:06,620 --> 00:41:09,733
And in a present,
we came from past,

896
00:41:09,733 --> 00:41:11,150
but we don't know
exactly where we

897
00:41:11,150 --> 00:41:13,910
came because past is--
although it came, happened

898
00:41:13,910 --> 00:41:16,940
once, the interpretation
of past could be quite

899
00:41:16,940 --> 00:41:20,900
different because, for example,
if you think about how I came,

900
00:41:20,900 --> 00:41:24,080
where I am right now,
if you ask my mother

901
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,740
or my wife or my daughter,
they'll have different stories.

902
00:41:27,740 --> 00:41:29,870
And some of these stories
will be probably similar,

903
00:41:29,870 --> 00:41:32,010
but it cannot be
exactly the same.

904
00:41:32,010 --> 00:41:34,430
So that means our
understanding of the past

905
00:41:34,430 --> 00:41:38,550
is also really colored
by our own experience,

906
00:41:38,550 --> 00:41:41,510
our own perspectives, and
the way we have seen it.

907
00:41:41,510 --> 00:41:43,250
The problem, even,
is that future

908
00:41:43,250 --> 00:41:45,140
could be even more
unknown because we have

909
00:41:45,140 --> 00:41:47,100
no clue how it will happen.

910
00:41:47,100 --> 00:41:49,690
But only thing we have is past.

911
00:41:49,690 --> 00:41:52,650
So how do I create water
management situations

912
00:41:52,650 --> 00:41:57,723
by looking at the past,
knowing that future is unknown?

913
00:41:57,723 --> 00:41:59,140
So this is the
fundamental puzzle.

914
00:41:59,140 --> 00:42:01,740
It's a scientific puzzle,
as well as social puzzle.

915
00:42:01,740 --> 00:42:04,133
This is where you need to
basically-- the question

916
00:42:04,133 --> 00:42:04,800
you are raising.

917
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,920
OK, in 1960, they didn't
know about climate change.

918
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,270
I don't know what will
happen next 50 years?

919
00:42:11,270 --> 00:42:15,040
We did not know that
COVID-19 will come in 2020.

920
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,060
It did and it changed
the life significantly.

921
00:42:18,060 --> 00:42:21,010
So those are unknown.

922
00:42:21,010 --> 00:42:23,280
And then we need to have
somewhere to essentially deal

923
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:23,780
with it.

924
00:42:23,780 --> 00:42:25,640
What is the next
COVID going to come?

925
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:27,100
We don't know.

926
00:42:27,100 --> 00:42:29,080
So what does that tell you?

927
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,930
What tells you, most of our
understanding from science

928
00:42:31,930 --> 00:42:33,550
is from physics.

929
00:42:33,550 --> 00:42:36,430
So what physics tells us
that with classical physics,

930
00:42:36,430 --> 00:42:38,110
I can essentially
describe the world

931
00:42:38,110 --> 00:42:41,710
in a very interesting
and very predictable way.

932
00:42:41,710 --> 00:42:43,510
But the problem
with complex system

933
00:42:43,510 --> 00:42:46,420
is that they are not easily
describable by classical

934
00:42:46,420 --> 00:42:49,840
physics or quantum mechanics.

935
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:53,030
World is not deterministic,
world is also not random.

936
00:42:53,030 --> 00:42:54,753
It is somewhere in between.

937
00:42:54,753 --> 00:42:56,170
That's what the
complex system is.

938
00:42:56,170 --> 00:42:58,810
Complex systems argues
that this is not

939
00:42:58,810 --> 00:43:00,970
a purely predictable system.

940
00:43:00,970 --> 00:43:04,630
At the same time, it is
not a random system either.

941
00:43:04,630 --> 00:43:07,420
So everything that you've
learned in school, now

942
00:43:07,420 --> 00:43:09,820
is really not
becoming very useful,

943
00:43:09,820 --> 00:43:12,250
because everything you learned
is essentially either based

944
00:43:12,250 --> 00:43:15,880
on some classical physics, which
is deterministic equations,

945
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,220
or statistics.

946
00:43:18,220 --> 00:43:20,440
But we're arguing that
for complex system,

947
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:21,940
neither would work.

948
00:43:21,940 --> 00:43:24,250
You need a combination
of these two.

949
00:43:24,250 --> 00:43:26,110
Then you come with this.

950
00:43:26,110 --> 00:43:30,010
Basically, two scientists in
1973, they were telling you

951
00:43:30,010 --> 00:43:32,560
"The search for scientific
basis for confronting

952
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:36,330
problems of social
policy is bound to fail."

953
00:43:36,330 --> 00:43:37,970
And this is a very
classical paper

954
00:43:37,970 --> 00:43:41,565
written in 1973, cited
over 10,000 times now.

955
00:43:41,565 --> 00:43:44,075
DR. GAIN: Is this
"wicked" problem?

956
00:43:44,075 --> 00:43:46,610
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, it
is same thing, same group.

957
00:43:46,610 --> 00:43:49,520
So they were very brilliant,
two young assistant professor

958
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,640
from Berkeley in 1973.

959
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,130
So what they were
telling me, when

960
00:43:55,130 --> 00:43:57,022
you are confronted
with complex problems--

961
00:43:57,022 --> 00:43:58,730
we do not talk "wicked"
because "wicked,"

962
00:43:58,730 --> 00:43:59,870
I don't like this word.

963
00:43:59,870 --> 00:44:01,010
But they use "wicked."

964
00:44:01,010 --> 00:44:02,900
But "wicked" essentially
in their term

965
00:44:02,900 --> 00:44:05,150
is very similar to
what we call "complex."

966
00:44:05,150 --> 00:44:07,340
And these are
interconnected problems.

967
00:44:07,340 --> 00:44:08,960
These are
interdependent problems.

968
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,390
There is simply no way
to do cause and effect,

969
00:44:11,390 --> 00:44:14,690
and particularly when there
are social policy involved.

970
00:44:14,690 --> 00:44:18,020
Then came this lady
from here, Wellesley.

971
00:44:18,020 --> 00:44:21,350
She was an economics
professor and chair.

972
00:44:21,350 --> 00:44:24,507
She said, you can't take
politics out of this analysis.

973
00:44:24,507 --> 00:44:25,590
Now you have three things.

974
00:44:25,590 --> 00:44:29,680
You have physical systems,
your social system,

975
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:31,510
your political systems.

976
00:44:31,510 --> 00:44:33,640
And what we argue
in water diplomacy,

977
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:35,623
we try to mix them up.

978
00:44:35,623 --> 00:44:37,290
And we say that all
three are important.

979
00:44:37,290 --> 00:44:39,082
And you need to be
careful about all three.

980
00:44:39,082 --> 00:44:41,230
You just cannot take
one or the other.

981
00:44:41,230 --> 00:44:46,090
And then your solution is not
going to be very sustainable.

982
00:44:46,090 --> 00:44:48,950
DR. GAIN: So here,
how is the difference

983
00:44:48,950 --> 00:44:52,460
between the social system
and the political system?

984
00:44:52,460 --> 00:44:55,640
Sometimes--

985
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:59,150
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah,
that is a good point.

986
00:44:59,150 --> 00:45:01,160
You have to go then
to our diagram here.

987
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,840
Let me see if I can go back.

988
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,380
So I did not use "social."

989
00:45:06,380 --> 00:45:07,755
I said "societal,"
so societal we

990
00:45:07,755 --> 00:45:10,047
are saying that there are
only three things, because we

991
00:45:10,047 --> 00:45:11,300
want to make life simpler.

992
00:45:11,300 --> 00:45:15,590
We said we put governance,
assets, and norms and values

993
00:45:15,590 --> 00:45:16,280
as societal.

994
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,690
We are keeping political
as a different entity.

995
00:45:18,690 --> 00:45:20,630
So this separation
in many places

996
00:45:20,630 --> 00:45:23,330
you may find to be
not really that clean.

997
00:45:23,330 --> 00:45:25,730
You can put politics
also in societal domain.

998
00:45:25,730 --> 00:45:26,645
That would be fine.

999
00:45:26,645 --> 00:45:28,020
But then you need
to be explicit.

1000
00:45:28,020 --> 00:45:29,420
But here we are explicit.

1001
00:45:29,420 --> 00:45:32,270
We are saying that for us, when
we talk about natural systems,

1002
00:45:32,270 --> 00:45:35,850
we are talking about quality,
quantity, and ecosystems--

1003
00:45:35,850 --> 00:45:39,330
measurable, quantifiable,
more or less.

1004
00:45:39,330 --> 00:45:40,890
When we talk about
societal systems,

1005
00:45:40,890 --> 00:45:43,590
we talk about governance
and we are keeping it broad.

1006
00:45:43,590 --> 00:45:47,280
Governance could be your
NGO to your government

1007
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:52,530
to basically your water board
in Pakistan or Bangladesh.

1008
00:45:52,530 --> 00:45:55,540
Norms and values could
be also quite broad.

1009
00:45:55,540 --> 00:45:56,950
It could be your
cultural values.

1010
00:45:56,950 --> 00:45:58,582
It could be religious
values of water.

1011
00:45:58,582 --> 00:45:59,790
So we are keeping them broad.

1012
00:45:59,790 --> 00:46:01,440
Assets, it's not only money.

1013
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,360
It could be human assets too.

1014
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,570
So we are being very careful
when we coin these terms,

1015
00:46:06,570 --> 00:46:08,820
we spend a lot of time
thinking about those.

1016
00:46:08,820 --> 00:46:11,430
So we kept them in
a way that we don't

1017
00:46:11,430 --> 00:46:13,590
need any more than these six.

1018
00:46:13,590 --> 00:46:16,980
And we have asked this
question to many of these water

1019
00:46:16,980 --> 00:46:18,990
diplomacy workshop
attendees that, look,

1020
00:46:18,990 --> 00:46:20,760
do I need anything else.

1021
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,590
Have we missed anything?

1022
00:46:22,590 --> 00:46:25,300
Tell us something
that we missed?

1023
00:46:25,300 --> 00:46:27,420
So maybe we will ask
you the same question.

1024
00:46:27,420 --> 00:46:29,610
Have we missed any
variables that you

1025
00:46:29,610 --> 00:46:33,600
need to include to talk
about water conflicts?

1026
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,450
Those are not there in
this particular figure.

1027
00:46:39,060 --> 00:46:41,908
Think of a variable or an
actor or an institution.

1028
00:46:41,908 --> 00:46:43,866
We are saying that
everything is included here.

1029
00:46:50,190 --> 00:46:51,180
Maybe think about it.

1030
00:46:51,180 --> 00:46:52,722
Maybe before the
end of the semester,

1031
00:46:52,722 --> 00:46:55,110
you can let Animesh know.

1032
00:46:55,110 --> 00:46:57,332
Because these are big
claims we're making.

1033
00:46:57,332 --> 00:46:59,040
Look, I think you
don't do anything else.

1034
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,080
These six are good
enough, because we

1035
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,960
have defined this
sufficiently broad

1036
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,750
so that you can go and
dig deeper into this.

1037
00:47:09,620 --> 00:47:10,130
All right.

1038
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,845
So those essentially
six now, we are

1039
00:47:18,845 --> 00:47:20,220
saying that we
can basically even

1040
00:47:20,220 --> 00:47:22,303
write it down in a little
bit more systematic way.

1041
00:47:22,303 --> 00:47:24,900
We're talking about variables
and processes that will

1042
00:47:24,900 --> 00:47:26,490
come from the natural domain.

1043
00:47:26,490 --> 00:47:30,980
Actors and institutions will
come from societal domain.

1044
00:47:30,980 --> 00:47:34,020
And then you have values,
interests, and tools.

1045
00:47:34,020 --> 00:47:35,730
And we go in that
particular order.

1046
00:47:35,730 --> 00:47:38,780
So values, so this you need
to be very, very careful.

1047
00:47:38,780 --> 00:47:40,940
Because what ends up
happening in most cases,

1048
00:47:40,940 --> 00:47:43,070
since I came from a
totally different domain--

1049
00:47:43,070 --> 00:47:44,790
when I was doing my
engineering stuff,

1050
00:47:44,790 --> 00:47:46,498
we were particularly
interested in tools.

1051
00:47:48,818 --> 00:47:50,860
And then we basically
started working with Larry.

1052
00:47:50,860 --> 00:47:52,527
And we found out that
there is something

1053
00:47:52,527 --> 00:47:54,280
called interests and positions.

1054
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:56,620
And then we need to
talk about values.

1055
00:47:56,620 --> 00:48:00,810
So now we get into
really entangled mess.

1056
00:48:00,810 --> 00:48:04,450
Then you have problems,
policies, and politics.

1057
00:48:04,450 --> 00:48:08,260
What we argue that these
things have to come into place.

1058
00:48:08,260 --> 00:48:11,290
You have a problem, you have
policies, you have politics.

1059
00:48:11,290 --> 00:48:14,820
Unless these three
are aligned properly,

1060
00:48:14,820 --> 00:48:17,310
you're not going to get a
solution that will be basically

1061
00:48:17,310 --> 00:48:19,230
resilient and sustainable.

1062
00:48:19,230 --> 00:48:20,970
Just think about what
happened, really.

1063
00:48:20,970 --> 00:48:23,690
Between January 20 and
then today's April 27--

1064
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:28,930
just three months.

1065
00:48:28,930 --> 00:48:31,090
In three months, we
have already vaccinated

1066
00:48:31,090 --> 00:48:33,850
about 200 million people.

1067
00:48:33,850 --> 00:48:35,730
That was not the case
in December/January.

1068
00:48:35,730 --> 00:48:36,660
What happened?

1069
00:48:36,660 --> 00:48:38,350
Nothing much changed in the US.

1070
00:48:38,350 --> 00:48:40,493
Few people change
in White House.

1071
00:48:40,493 --> 00:48:42,660
Other than that, most of
the actors and institutions

1072
00:48:42,660 --> 00:48:44,690
are the same.

1073
00:48:44,690 --> 00:48:46,930
So some of the problems,
policies, and politics

1074
00:48:46,930 --> 00:48:48,580
need to align properly.

1075
00:48:48,580 --> 00:48:50,920
If it does, things
can explode or things

1076
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,500
can get totally
basically out of control.

1077
00:48:54,500 --> 00:48:59,230
So big-time thinking
about is basically

1078
00:48:59,230 --> 00:49:02,425
just the difference between
January 20 and, say, April 27.

1079
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,510
So this multiplicity of choices,
then, what it does really,

1080
00:49:09,510 --> 00:49:12,270
this essentially fundamentally
challenged this idea

1081
00:49:12,270 --> 00:49:15,670
of finding optimal solutions.

1082
00:49:15,670 --> 00:49:19,760
This is what basically Rittel
and Webber found in 1973.

1083
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:21,320
They were talking
about that when

1084
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,680
you have a social problem--

1085
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,800
we are calling them now coupled
natural human system problem.

1086
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,350
To look for optimal
solution is impossible.

1087
00:49:32,825 --> 00:49:34,450
So that's the
recognition we must have,

1088
00:49:34,450 --> 00:49:35,800
because this is the recognition.

1089
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:37,570
At least, oftentimes,
we do not have

1090
00:49:37,570 --> 00:49:39,940
when we are coming from
a technical domain.

1091
00:49:39,940 --> 00:49:42,580
From a technical domain, we
want to find an optimal solution

1092
00:49:42,580 --> 00:49:43,930
very quickly.

1093
00:49:43,930 --> 00:49:45,640
And optimal solutions
are possible

1094
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:48,040
for well-structured systems.

1095
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:54,840
I can find the optimal
temperature for my room.

1096
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,180
There's no problem, because
I can put enough basically

1097
00:49:57,180 --> 00:50:01,420
heating and air conditioning
and thermometer to get it done.

1098
00:50:01,420 --> 00:50:06,540
But if I want to do optimal
temperature for city of Boston,

1099
00:50:06,540 --> 00:50:10,180
it cannot be done, because
city of Boston is open.

1100
00:50:10,180 --> 00:50:13,330
Now things are coming back
and forth from all kinds--

1101
00:50:13,330 --> 00:50:18,040
maybe from Connecticut or
from Maine or from Canada,

1102
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:19,590
where the cold air is coming in.

1103
00:50:19,590 --> 00:50:20,843
So I cannot make this.

1104
00:50:20,843 --> 00:50:22,260
But on the other
hand, in my room,

1105
00:50:22,260 --> 00:50:25,690
I can do it because
the room is bounded.

1106
00:50:25,690 --> 00:50:27,880
So basically it has boundaries.

1107
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:29,340
It can be insulated.

1108
00:50:29,340 --> 00:50:30,670
It can be done.

1109
00:50:30,670 --> 00:50:33,870
So if the system is bounded,
system is well-structured,

1110
00:50:33,870 --> 00:50:37,650
system is well-defined,
optimal solutions are OK.

1111
00:50:37,650 --> 00:50:40,920
But in most natural
systems, they are not.

1112
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:45,598
In almost all coupled
systems, it's impossible.

1113
00:50:45,598 --> 00:50:47,890
When the natural systems and
human systems are coupled,

1114
00:50:47,890 --> 00:50:49,240
then you cannot find it.

1115
00:50:49,240 --> 00:50:52,610
Then you need to be
contingent in context.

1116
00:50:52,610 --> 00:50:54,710
Then you say, fine,
then what did I learn.

1117
00:50:54,710 --> 00:50:57,050
If everything depends on
the context and everything

1118
00:50:57,050 --> 00:50:59,060
is contingent, then
why come to school?

1119
00:50:59,060 --> 00:51:01,190
Just go and do it.

1120
00:51:01,190 --> 00:51:04,460
That's where I think will give
you some clue with maybe water

1121
00:51:04,460 --> 00:51:07,160
diplomacy and principled
pragmatism, how that can

1122
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,020
be done, although
they're contingent,

1123
00:51:09,020 --> 00:51:11,738
although they're contextual.

1124
00:51:11,738 --> 00:51:13,280
So water diplomacy,
then, what is it?

1125
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,500
So scientific method, I
said that, in general, it's

1126
00:51:15,500 --> 00:51:16,103
objective.

1127
00:51:16,103 --> 00:51:18,020
So we'll talk about a
little bit more closely.

1128
00:51:18,020 --> 00:51:22,940
So policy and decision-making
is subjective.

1129
00:51:22,940 --> 00:51:25,400
Whether you like it or
not, that's what it is.

1130
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,763
So whether your political
bias is Biden versus Trump

1131
00:51:28,763 --> 00:51:30,680
[INAUDIBLE],, you're
seeing that policy-making

1132
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:31,950
and decision-making.

1133
00:51:31,950 --> 00:51:33,380
So this is going
to be subjective,

1134
00:51:33,380 --> 00:51:35,990
whether we like it or not.

1135
00:51:35,990 --> 00:51:39,653
Then we are seeing the
scientific facts are objective.

1136
00:51:39,653 --> 00:51:41,570
Maybe, I think there are
nuances that we don't

1137
00:51:41,570 --> 00:51:43,880
want to get into right now.

1138
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,640
Social facts are subjective.

1139
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,780
So I'm making a sharp
distinction between these two

1140
00:51:49,780 --> 00:51:50,280
things.

1141
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:53,430
So there is a scientific fact
and there is a social fact.

1142
00:51:53,430 --> 00:51:56,240
When we talked about this
idea of alternative facts,

1143
00:51:56,240 --> 00:51:59,720
where people got confused is
that they were mixing it up.

1144
00:52:02,830 --> 00:52:05,910
Social facts are, basically,
there are alternative facts.

1145
00:52:05,910 --> 00:52:08,370
Scientific fact, there
is no alternative facts.

1146
00:52:08,370 --> 00:52:13,680
If I take my temperature, if I
find it to be 98.4, it is 98.4.

1147
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,920
Maybe with another
thermometer, you can get 98.5.

1148
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:20,288
It cannot be 200 degrees.

1149
00:52:20,288 --> 00:52:21,455
So that's a scientific fact.

1150
00:52:21,455 --> 00:52:24,950
And I said, this is objective,
replicable, reproducible.

1151
00:52:24,950 --> 00:52:30,090
Social fact would be how I
feel about the temperature.

1152
00:52:30,090 --> 00:52:33,010
I may feel perfectly fine.

1153
00:52:33,010 --> 00:52:38,780
And Larry may feel perfectly
hot with the same temperature.

1154
00:52:38,780 --> 00:52:42,110
But the thermometer is
measuring same temperature.

1155
00:52:42,110 --> 00:52:44,970
How both of us feels
is quite different.

1156
00:52:44,970 --> 00:52:46,160
That's the social fact.

1157
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,310
That simply cannot be
objectively defined.

1158
00:52:49,310 --> 00:52:51,330
And you don't have to.

1159
00:52:51,330 --> 00:52:54,350
But in decision-making,
both are important.

1160
00:52:54,350 --> 00:53:00,000
I just cannot use scientific
fact to make decisions which

1161
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,220
will affect human beings.

1162
00:53:02,220 --> 00:53:03,750
I can do this for machines.

1163
00:53:06,380 --> 00:53:08,120
But when I bring
in human beings,

1164
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:11,390
when they have emotions,
they have agencies,

1165
00:53:11,390 --> 00:53:15,170
they have temptations, I cannot
use just scientific facts

1166
00:53:15,170 --> 00:53:18,050
and assume that it will work.

1167
00:53:18,050 --> 00:53:19,650
As a result, now,
water diplomacy

1168
00:53:19,650 --> 00:53:22,190
is both subjective
and objective.

1169
00:53:22,190 --> 00:53:24,500
So this is essentially
very problematic

1170
00:53:24,500 --> 00:53:26,000
in terms of implementation.

1171
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:27,680
But this is also very
good because this

1172
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,620
is the way you'll keep your
job for the next 50 years,

1173
00:53:30,620 --> 00:53:32,540
because not anybody
can do it that well.

1174
00:53:35,087 --> 00:53:37,670
So that's the reason I think--
so Larry is doing for 50 years.

1175
00:53:37,670 --> 00:53:39,250
I hope I can do it too.

1176
00:53:39,250 --> 00:53:42,645
For another 20 years,
I'll tell you what to do.

1177
00:53:42,645 --> 00:53:44,020
And that is exactly
where I think

1178
00:53:44,020 --> 00:53:46,630
the brilliance and the
ingenuity will come in.

1179
00:53:46,630 --> 00:53:49,360
That this is not
easily separable.

1180
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,970
I cannot just take objective
facts and claim that I'll be

1181
00:53:51,970 --> 00:53:54,130
able to do water
management very well.

1182
00:53:54,130 --> 00:53:56,060
Neither can I do subjectively.

1183
00:53:56,060 --> 00:53:59,020
So if you can combine these
two in some creative ways,

1184
00:53:59,020 --> 00:54:02,202
you'll have credibility and
you'll be able to do it.

1185
00:54:02,202 --> 00:54:03,520
AUDIENCE: Professor Shafik.

1186
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:04,780
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, please.

1187
00:54:04,780 --> 00:54:06,610
AUDIENCE: Can you
repeat again the example

1188
00:54:06,610 --> 00:54:10,330
of the temperature,
which is to illustrate

1189
00:54:10,330 --> 00:54:13,315
the difference between the
subjective and objective?

1190
00:54:13,315 --> 00:54:15,550
PROFESSOR ISLAM: OK, so
just one second here.

1191
00:54:15,550 --> 00:54:17,030
Let me see here.

1192
00:54:17,030 --> 00:54:20,135
So objective facts
would be, I would

1193
00:54:20,135 --> 00:54:21,760
say-- we will go this
into a little bit

1194
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:22,760
more detail [INAUDIBLE].

1195
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,760
So objective fact, I am
defining it very sharply.

1196
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:27,820
So in my definition,
objective fact

1197
00:54:27,820 --> 00:54:32,650
is based on scientific
matters which are observable.

1198
00:54:32,650 --> 00:54:34,360
It has to be observable.

1199
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,240
If it is not observable,
so observable by how.

1200
00:54:37,240 --> 00:54:39,940
So then basically if you
really want to be very sure,

1201
00:54:39,940 --> 00:54:41,980
you said we have five senses.

1202
00:54:41,980 --> 00:54:45,500
If these are not sensed by your
five senses, it doesn't exist.

1203
00:54:45,500 --> 00:54:46,930
So I'll tell you,
although I don't

1204
00:54:46,930 --> 00:54:52,270
want to basically make our
friend Pinker in other school

1205
00:54:52,270 --> 00:54:53,020
on the Red Line.

1206
00:54:53,020 --> 00:54:57,250
He's a cognitive
psychologist at Harvard.

1207
00:54:57,250 --> 00:55:01,000
So he would tell you really
everything else that you cannot

1208
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:04,120
sense or can't
observe doesn't exist.

1209
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:08,140
So trust-- it doesn't exist.

1210
00:55:08,140 --> 00:55:11,020
Trust simply is not measurable.

1211
00:55:11,020 --> 00:55:13,660
He has a whole book
called "Enlightenment."

1212
00:55:13,660 --> 00:55:16,840
700 pages with hundreds
of thousands of graphs.

1213
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:19,840
And he's showing that with
enlightenment we have basically

1214
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:21,310
done remarkably well.

1215
00:55:21,310 --> 00:55:23,620
Because in all measures
that he shows--

1216
00:55:23,620 --> 00:55:25,840
of course, he's very
selective in showing

1217
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:27,130
that everything has improved.

1218
00:55:27,130 --> 00:55:29,530
Like, our infant
mortality has improved.

1219
00:55:29,530 --> 00:55:31,660
Our war has gone down.

1220
00:55:31,660 --> 00:55:33,430
People dying from
war has gone down.

1221
00:55:33,430 --> 00:55:35,720
People dying out of
hunger has gone down.

1222
00:55:35,720 --> 00:55:37,630
So we are doing well.

1223
00:55:37,630 --> 00:55:42,100
But in that book, trust was
not even mentioned once.

1224
00:55:42,100 --> 00:55:43,940
Because he doesn't care
really about trust.

1225
00:55:43,940 --> 00:55:47,740
So for him, it's
a scientific fact.

1226
00:55:47,740 --> 00:55:50,610
Unless it is observable,
it's not scientific.

1227
00:55:50,610 --> 00:55:53,190
Social fact now, I feel bad.

1228
00:55:53,190 --> 00:55:56,460
And we have too many people
suffering from mental disease

1229
00:55:56,460 --> 00:55:57,390
right now.

1230
00:55:57,390 --> 00:56:00,570
Mental disease will become
the most pandemic really

1231
00:56:00,570 --> 00:56:05,510
in the next 20 years, he
doesn't want to talk about this.

1232
00:56:05,510 --> 00:56:07,430
So funny, those are
subjective judgment.

1233
00:56:07,430 --> 00:56:08,878
You figure it out.

1234
00:56:08,878 --> 00:56:09,920
So that's the difference.

1235
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,060
He thinks those are
not observable--

1236
00:56:12,060 --> 00:56:13,470
doesn't exist.

1237
00:56:13,470 --> 00:56:16,130
So that's a very sharp, it's
a very crude definition,

1238
00:56:16,130 --> 00:56:18,350
but that's the way I
try to do this also.

1239
00:56:18,350 --> 00:56:21,830
So I say subjective is
meaning that these are not

1240
00:56:21,830 --> 00:56:24,210
easily verifiable.

1241
00:56:24,210 --> 00:56:28,210
But I do disagree with
him that, no, they exist.

1242
00:56:28,210 --> 00:56:31,280
I may not be able to measure
them, but they're real.

1243
00:56:33,970 --> 00:56:36,400
He will say that
they're not even real.

1244
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:40,725
They're just a fiction
of your imagination.

1245
00:56:40,725 --> 00:56:42,060
AUDIENCE: Thank you very much.

1246
00:56:42,060 --> 00:56:42,885
Thank you.

1247
00:56:42,885 --> 00:56:45,070
PROFESSOR ISLAM: So
that brings us to this.

1248
00:56:45,070 --> 00:56:46,950
I think this you will like now.

1249
00:56:46,950 --> 00:56:49,380
So here, I want you to
look at these two pictures.

1250
00:56:49,380 --> 00:56:51,040
And I thought it was very nice.

1251
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:54,420
So there is a difference
between myth and fact.

1252
00:56:54,420 --> 00:56:56,610
Look at this first figure.

1253
00:56:56,610 --> 00:57:02,870
And then remember what
this individual is doing.

1254
00:57:02,870 --> 00:57:05,540
This individual now
remembers myths.

1255
00:57:05,540 --> 00:57:09,690
Although you have
given him 12 facts.

1256
00:57:09,690 --> 00:57:11,650
So what is the problem?

1257
00:57:11,650 --> 00:57:15,210
The problem is that
our cognitive ability

1258
00:57:15,210 --> 00:57:19,660
to process information
is not really very good.

1259
00:57:19,660 --> 00:57:21,360
So if you give me a
lot of information--

1260
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:22,540
it's happening with COVID.

1261
00:57:22,540 --> 00:57:24,490
If you think about
COVID clearly,

1262
00:57:24,490 --> 00:57:26,503
people are so confused.

1263
00:57:26,503 --> 00:57:27,920
It's not that
people are confused.

1264
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:31,915
People just simply
cannot separate it out,

1265
00:57:31,915 --> 00:57:34,040
because you are giving me
so many facts and so many

1266
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:38,510
conflicting facts, so ultimately
you remember the myth that most

1267
00:57:38,510 --> 00:57:40,490
likely I'll die.

1268
00:57:40,490 --> 00:57:42,320
Although the
probability of you dying

1269
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:46,750
is extremely low,
even if you get it.

1270
00:57:46,750 --> 00:57:49,380
On the other hand,
if you can give myth

1271
00:57:49,380 --> 00:57:53,640
with some carefully
constructed facts,

1272
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,630
you do remember the fact.

1273
00:57:56,630 --> 00:57:58,280
So the argument
that I'll make here

1274
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:00,500
is that our challenge
is to essentially,

1275
00:58:00,500 --> 00:58:02,990
when I'm trying to
debunk some of this myth

1276
00:58:02,990 --> 00:58:06,590
or some of the social facts,
to create scientific facts.

1277
00:58:06,590 --> 00:58:09,260
Those are easily
digestible to the audience

1278
00:58:09,260 --> 00:58:12,130
that I'm giving it to.

1279
00:58:12,130 --> 00:58:13,560
But that's very, very powerful.

1280
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:16,170
Because otherwise, I can keep
talking about this climate

1281
00:58:16,170 --> 00:58:16,890
change.

1282
00:58:16,890 --> 00:58:18,990
In general, public
does not understand

1283
00:58:18,990 --> 00:58:20,880
what I'm talking about.

1284
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:24,580
As a result, they
think it's a hoax.

1285
00:58:24,580 --> 00:58:28,080
So what does that
mean really is this.

1286
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:32,110
When you're trying to replace
a myth from somebody's mind,

1287
00:58:32,110 --> 00:58:34,390
you need to replace
it by some facts.

1288
00:58:34,390 --> 00:58:39,650
Otherwise, it will get
replaced by another myth.

1289
00:58:39,650 --> 00:58:42,380
So the question is basically
and the politicians

1290
00:58:42,380 --> 00:58:47,190
are extremely powerful really
in basically replacing myths.

1291
00:58:47,190 --> 00:58:50,730
And myth are not really
easily discounted.

1292
00:58:50,730 --> 00:58:54,808
I don't believe that myth
can be easily taken out.

1293
00:58:54,808 --> 00:58:55,600
They will be there.

1294
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:59,050
The challenge is to create
myth those are little

1295
00:58:59,050 --> 00:59:03,080
bit more scientifically valid.

1296
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:04,590
If you can do this,
then I think you

1297
00:59:04,590 --> 00:59:05,840
have an alternative narrative.

1298
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:07,965
Otherwise, you don't have
an alternative narrative.

1299
00:59:07,965 --> 00:59:12,050
You have no way to make any
influence in the policy-making

1300
00:59:12,050 --> 00:59:15,140
and the decision-making.

1301
00:59:15,140 --> 00:59:18,522
So that brings us to something
that I like is that--

1302
00:59:18,522 --> 00:59:20,980
you remember when you talk
about water diplomacy framework,

1303
00:59:20,980 --> 00:59:23,230
we did not say
that this is model.

1304
00:59:23,230 --> 00:59:25,240
It is not even a
theory right now.

1305
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:26,790
So what is a framework?

1306
00:59:26,790 --> 00:59:29,210
Framework is
something that is it's

1307
00:59:29,210 --> 00:59:33,850
some general ideas and
general relationships that

1308
00:59:33,850 --> 00:59:36,580
gives you to address
a particular problem

1309
00:59:36,580 --> 00:59:38,120
in a particular way.

1310
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:39,340
So that is the framework.

1311
00:59:39,340 --> 00:59:41,840
When the framework
get tested over time,

1312
00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:44,230
so we are doing it for
many, many years right now,

1313
00:59:44,230 --> 00:59:45,940
gradually it will
become a theory.

1314
00:59:45,940 --> 00:59:50,280
Eventually it will become
a model and predictable.

1315
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,000
So right now, we'll put
on water diplomacy--

1316
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:55,110
principled pragmatism
as framework.

1317
00:59:55,110 --> 00:59:58,880
This framework allows us
to explain those things

1318
00:59:58,880 --> 00:59:59,780
in certain ways.

1319
00:59:59,780 --> 01:00:02,510
It allows us to intervene
in certain ways.

1320
01:00:02,510 --> 01:00:04,970
When it becomes a
theory, then you just

1321
01:00:04,970 --> 01:00:08,570
basically like evolution.

1322
01:00:08,570 --> 01:00:10,780
Evolution is a theory.

1323
01:00:10,780 --> 01:00:14,910
Newton's law is a law.

1324
01:00:14,910 --> 01:00:17,800
Newton's law is not a
theory, it's not a framework.

1325
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,040
So there is a distinction
between framework, theory,

1326
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:21,440
and model.

1327
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:24,180
So model is at the level that
you are the Newton's law.

1328
01:00:24,180 --> 01:00:27,800
So things doesn't matter
really whether I'm in Boston

1329
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:28,970
or I'm in Brazil.

1330
01:00:28,970 --> 01:00:32,460
Newton's laws applies.

1331
01:00:32,460 --> 01:00:33,880
So that is what
the difference is.

1332
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:37,910
So if you can
develop certain law,

1333
01:00:37,910 --> 01:00:42,180
those are context-independent,
then you have a law.

1334
01:00:42,180 --> 01:00:43,710
So do I have a law for water?

1335
01:00:43,710 --> 01:00:45,390
No I don't.

1336
01:00:45,390 --> 01:00:48,060
I don't have a
water diplomacy law.

1337
01:00:48,060 --> 01:00:50,610
We have a water
diplomacy framework.

1338
01:00:50,610 --> 01:00:53,100
And that framework
with time will probably

1339
01:00:53,100 --> 01:00:58,600
get tested, refined, and get
into theory and hopefully

1340
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:00,280
into model some day.

1341
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:04,810
So what are the principles?

1342
01:01:04,810 --> 01:01:06,700
The principle that we
are trying to use here

1343
01:01:06,700 --> 01:01:08,200
in principled
pragmatic framework

1344
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:11,100
is this objective
scientific method.

1345
01:01:11,100 --> 01:01:13,730
So we said that there is an
objective scientific method,

1346
01:01:13,730 --> 01:01:14,930
these five senses.

1347
01:01:14,930 --> 01:01:17,900
It allows me to do certain
things in certain ways.

1348
01:01:17,900 --> 01:01:22,310
Those will be
independent of context.

1349
01:01:22,310 --> 01:01:25,850
Giving out example of taking
temperature-- so a temperature

1350
01:01:25,850 --> 01:01:28,040
with a thermometer is
a measurable thing.

1351
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,170
I can easily validate this.

1352
01:01:30,170 --> 01:01:33,560
There is no ambiguity there.

1353
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:37,400
Pragmatism comes in this
subjective interpretation now.

1354
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:40,220
Because the example that
I was giving that how

1355
01:01:40,220 --> 01:01:44,600
I feel about temperature is
a subjective interpretation.

1356
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:46,850
That interpretation
should not be confused

1357
01:01:46,850 --> 01:01:48,980
with scientific methods.

1358
01:01:48,980 --> 01:01:50,930
But I need both.

1359
01:01:50,930 --> 01:01:52,220
I need scientific method.

1360
01:01:52,220 --> 01:01:54,230
I need also subjective
interpretation.

1361
01:01:54,230 --> 01:01:56,390
This is exactly where
water diplomacy comes in,

1362
01:01:56,390 --> 01:01:59,400
that we just don't need
scientific methods.

1363
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:01,580
We also need subjective
interpretation

1364
01:02:01,580 --> 01:02:05,800
of the local values,
local context.

1365
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:10,010
Then if I can combine these two,
you get principled pragmatism.

1366
01:02:10,010 --> 01:02:12,057
That is subjective
and objective.

1367
01:02:12,057 --> 01:02:14,390
The same thing that we talked
about our water diplomacy.

1368
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:19,190
Then we said, OK, like,
I think, I don't know,

1369
01:02:19,190 --> 01:02:20,510
you have talked about this.

1370
01:02:20,510 --> 01:02:24,690
We look at the world in various,
I would say, the simple way.

1371
01:02:24,690 --> 01:02:27,480
So we said that there are
only three types of systems.

1372
01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:30,870
And our first job is to
identify that problem.

1373
01:02:30,870 --> 01:02:33,270
And that's the diagnosis
and characterization.

1374
01:02:33,270 --> 01:02:38,100
So with simple problems, but
this causal relationships are

1375
01:02:38,100 --> 01:02:40,690
well-understood--

1376
01:02:40,690 --> 01:02:43,270
complicated, it's
often ambiguous, but--

1377
01:02:43,270 --> 01:02:46,600
not easily identified, but
you can still identify this.

1378
01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:48,850
Then you have complex problems--

1379
01:02:48,850 --> 01:02:53,580
not easily identifiable, only
perceivable in retrospect.

1380
01:02:53,580 --> 01:02:58,590
So a good example of this would
be like flushing your toilet.

1381
01:02:58,590 --> 01:03:01,070
You can go and buy
basically a toilet system

1382
01:03:01,070 --> 01:03:02,840
from Home Depot for $100.

1383
01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:04,460
It would work out very nicely.

1384
01:03:04,460 --> 01:03:06,230
No problem.

1385
01:03:06,230 --> 01:03:10,130
Bringing water to your
home from Quabbin,

1386
01:03:10,130 --> 01:03:12,860
like about 50 miles away,
and taking the water

1387
01:03:12,860 --> 01:03:14,360
on the 16th floor of your room.

1388
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:16,340
And you get out,
you get warm water,

1389
01:03:16,340 --> 01:03:18,610
that's a complicated system.

1390
01:03:18,610 --> 01:03:22,170
I need lots of pumps and
pipes and then chlorination

1391
01:03:22,170 --> 01:03:23,910
and heating and so on.

1392
01:03:23,910 --> 01:03:26,070
Complex problem is
the one that when

1393
01:03:26,070 --> 01:03:28,200
we created this
global reservoir,

1394
01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:32,160
we have also eliminated
four villages from Quabbin

1395
01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:35,280
because we wanted to
create a large reservoir.

1396
01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:37,110
A lot of people has
lost their homes

1397
01:03:37,110 --> 01:03:38,730
and they had to be bought out.

1398
01:03:38,730 --> 01:03:40,380
So was this right to do?

1399
01:03:40,380 --> 01:03:42,240
Because you are
basically removing

1400
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:46,740
human beings from four towns
for 200 years, because Boston

1401
01:03:46,740 --> 01:03:48,960
has to grow.

1402
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:50,140
Boston needed more water.

1403
01:03:50,140 --> 01:03:52,890
They needed to create the
Quabbin Reserve in 1920s.

1404
01:03:52,890 --> 01:03:56,598
So they created this by
eliminating four villages.

1405
01:03:56,598 --> 01:03:58,890
And there is still people
complaining that that was not

1406
01:03:58,890 --> 01:04:00,593
the right thing to do.

1407
01:04:00,593 --> 01:04:02,760
So that's a complex problem
where you have basically

1408
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:05,730
coupled a natural system
with the human systems.

1409
01:04:05,730 --> 01:04:09,170
Now the system is, in this case,
is knowable and predictable.

1410
01:04:09,170 --> 01:04:12,408
So flushing a toilet is
more or less predictable.

1411
01:04:12,408 --> 01:04:14,950
This is complicated, but it's
still more or less predictable.

1412
01:04:14,950 --> 01:04:18,520
Not always, but this
one is most of the time

1413
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,270
unpredictable and emergent.

1414
01:04:21,270 --> 01:04:23,040
Meaning, that things
will just emerge

1415
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,320
that you had no idea that
it was going to come.

1416
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:26,850
And from your
arsenic problem, you

1417
01:04:26,850 --> 01:04:28,225
have seen some of
this emergence.

1418
01:04:28,225 --> 01:04:30,030
We'll talk about
a little bit more.

1419
01:04:30,030 --> 01:04:32,950
If you are to intervene
in these systems,

1420
01:04:32,950 --> 01:04:37,190
this will work with
best practices.

1421
01:04:37,190 --> 01:04:40,010
And this is where I think most
of the people got it wrong.

1422
01:04:40,010 --> 01:04:42,410
And I think we want
you to be very careful.

1423
01:04:42,410 --> 01:04:47,120
What we are saying here is that,
your best practices will apply

1424
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:48,785
very well for simple systems.

1425
01:04:52,060 --> 01:04:54,340
If you go into a
complicated system,

1426
01:04:54,340 --> 01:04:56,260
you need some
expert knowledge now

1427
01:04:56,260 --> 01:04:58,690
and some contextual knowledge.

1428
01:04:58,690 --> 01:05:01,390
If you go into complex
system, now you

1429
01:05:01,390 --> 01:05:03,825
need something
totally different.

1430
01:05:03,825 --> 01:05:06,170
You need a synthesis
of scientific facts

1431
01:05:06,170 --> 01:05:09,130
and social facts.

1432
01:05:09,130 --> 01:05:12,960
You simply cannot
use best practices.

1433
01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:15,315
Because there is no best
practices for complex systems.

1434
01:05:19,140 --> 01:05:22,530
And although you will
hear this term often,

1435
01:05:22,530 --> 01:05:26,620
"give me a roadmap," no, I
cannot give you a roadmap.

1436
01:05:26,620 --> 01:05:30,170
The roadmap assumes
that I know the road.

1437
01:05:30,170 --> 01:05:31,270
So how do I know the road?

1438
01:05:31,270 --> 01:05:33,920
I know the road because
I've seen it in the past.

1439
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:37,840
So that means I'm assuming
the past will essentially be

1440
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:40,570
similar in the future as well.

1441
01:05:40,570 --> 01:05:44,500
If the future is a little
bit different than the past,

1442
01:05:44,500 --> 01:05:47,260
my past knowledge is not
going to be very useful.

1443
01:05:47,260 --> 01:05:49,830
So I cannot have a roadmap.

1444
01:05:49,830 --> 01:05:54,510
So to hope for a roadmap,
to hope for a best practices

1445
01:05:54,510 --> 01:05:58,625
is an illusion we must abandon
to deal with complex problems.

1446
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:03,150
Is it making sense?

1447
01:06:03,150 --> 01:06:05,400
But this is very
important because we

1448
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:07,350
need to make a distinction
between these three

1449
01:06:07,350 --> 01:06:08,790
colossal problems.

1450
01:06:08,790 --> 01:06:11,190
Your first job would be
to essentially decide

1451
01:06:11,190 --> 01:06:15,300
which one is simple, which is
complicated, which is complex.

1452
01:06:15,300 --> 01:06:17,430
And then you cannot
use the tool,

1453
01:06:17,430 --> 01:06:20,400
those that will be
applicable for simple system,

1454
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:23,340
when the problem is actually
complex, or vice versa.

1455
01:06:28,153 --> 01:06:29,570
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
Shafik, assume

1456
01:06:29,570 --> 01:06:41,280
that everybody is working
on very complex problems.

1457
01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:44,820
Each of the cases
you heard about,

1458
01:06:44,820 --> 01:06:49,450
the beginning that people
describe, they're all complex.

1459
01:06:49,450 --> 01:06:52,210
They may have simple
components within them,

1460
01:06:52,210 --> 01:06:55,410
but basically the
conflicts and what's

1461
01:06:55,410 --> 01:06:57,225
at the heart of the
conflicts are complex.

1462
01:07:00,070 --> 01:07:04,560
It sounds from your
description like it's not

1463
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:14,970
really possible to be usefully
prescriptive in a situation

1464
01:07:14,970 --> 01:07:17,550
in which the problems
you're dealing with

1465
01:07:17,550 --> 01:07:19,890
are highly complex.

1466
01:07:23,310 --> 01:07:24,450
You think that's right?

1467
01:07:24,450 --> 01:07:25,980
Or do we--

1468
01:07:25,980 --> 01:07:29,730
PROFESSOR ISLAM: No,
then we're in trouble.

1469
01:07:29,730 --> 01:07:32,950
At some level it is, but
at some level it is not.

1470
01:07:32,950 --> 01:07:34,570
So let me see what
I can explain.

1471
01:07:34,570 --> 01:07:38,250
So the story that what
has to happen then

1472
01:07:38,250 --> 01:07:41,760
is, when you are confronted
with a problem like solicited,

1473
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:46,500
we are confronted with the
problem of Ganges Water Treaty.

1474
01:07:46,500 --> 01:07:48,550
So let's take this
as an example.

1475
01:07:48,550 --> 01:07:51,870
Then, we have to decide, when we
talk about Ganges Water Treaty,

1476
01:07:51,870 --> 01:07:53,290
what are we talking about.

1477
01:07:53,290 --> 01:07:55,140
So if you ask me right
now, so I'll say,

1478
01:07:55,140 --> 01:07:57,540
Ganges Water Treaty
should primarily

1479
01:07:57,540 --> 01:08:00,982
focus on the dry season flow.

1480
01:08:00,982 --> 01:08:03,440
So now I'm trying to make the
problem a little bit sharper.

1481
01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:04,940
Why dry season flow?

1482
01:08:04,940 --> 01:08:08,690
In the wet season, I have
about 70 to 80,000 cubic meters

1483
01:08:08,690 --> 01:08:10,160
per second of water flow.

1484
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:11,480
That is a flood season.

1485
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:13,940
Flood season lasts
for a few weeks.

1486
01:08:13,940 --> 01:08:17,960
But it clears the problem, but
that is a recurring phenomenon.

1487
01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:20,460
Then in the dry season, it's
almost about eight to nine

1488
01:08:20,460 --> 01:08:20,960
months.

1489
01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:22,700
That creates
significant problem,

1490
01:08:22,700 --> 01:08:25,850
both from water
availability for ecosystems

1491
01:08:25,850 --> 01:08:28,580
to irrigation to navigability,
so many, many things.

1492
01:08:28,580 --> 01:08:30,649
So I will focus on that part.

1493
01:08:30,649 --> 01:08:33,590
Then my question will
be, so OK, so given

1494
01:08:33,590 --> 01:08:38,029
that dry season flow is only
4,000 as opposed to 80,000,

1495
01:08:38,029 --> 01:08:39,990
now what can I do.

1496
01:08:39,990 --> 01:08:42,950
How do I basically resolve
this complexity of the problem?

1497
01:08:42,950 --> 01:08:45,170
Now we have to come up
with deal with India

1498
01:08:45,170 --> 01:08:49,550
and sit down and see what
adoptions can I have.

1499
01:08:49,550 --> 01:08:51,470
What adoption those
are possible so

1500
01:08:51,470 --> 01:08:54,109
that we both can come
up with some options

1501
01:08:54,109 --> 01:08:56,660
where we know we're not
going to get 80,000.

1502
01:08:56,660 --> 01:08:58,729
We need clearly actually 20,000.

1503
01:08:58,729 --> 01:09:01,229
We only have four.

1504
01:09:01,229 --> 01:09:03,240
Now how do we
solve this problem?

1505
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:04,710
It's not easily resolvable.

1506
01:09:04,710 --> 01:09:08,279
Then, where essentially this
whole idea of mutual value

1507
01:09:08,279 --> 01:09:11,399
creation, negotiation, and
discussion has to come in,

1508
01:09:11,399 --> 01:09:15,090
rooted in scientific facts.

1509
01:09:15,090 --> 01:09:18,330
That's basically where I think
you can think of really how

1510
01:09:18,330 --> 01:09:20,340
do I get around this
mess, because otherwise it

1511
01:09:20,340 --> 01:09:24,634
becomes such a complex problem
that nothing can be done.

1512
01:09:24,634 --> 01:09:26,490
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
So are you saying

1513
01:09:26,490 --> 01:09:29,700
that when you face
a complex problem,

1514
01:09:29,700 --> 01:09:31,800
try to only work on part of it?

1515
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:33,810
PROFESSOR ISLAM: No.

1516
01:09:33,810 --> 01:09:37,370
What I would say,
that the approach

1517
01:09:37,370 --> 01:09:39,569
should be problem-driven.

1518
01:09:39,569 --> 01:09:42,180
Meaning, that you have to
define a particular problem

1519
01:09:42,180 --> 01:09:43,330
that you want to solve.

1520
01:09:43,330 --> 01:09:45,390
So here I have
defined the problem

1521
01:09:45,390 --> 01:09:50,340
that I want to resolve the
dry season flow in the Ganges.

1522
01:09:50,340 --> 01:09:51,330
That is my problem.

1523
01:09:51,330 --> 01:09:52,413
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Right.

1524
01:09:52,413 --> 01:09:55,065
But isn't that really a part
of the larger problem of trying

1525
01:09:55,065 --> 01:09:56,300
to managing the Ganges?

1526
01:09:56,300 --> 01:09:58,945
PROFESSOR ISLAM: It is, it
is, no question about it.

1527
01:09:58,945 --> 01:09:59,820
No question about it.

1528
01:09:59,820 --> 01:10:02,820
And I don't think there is
any way to disentangle this.

1529
01:10:02,820 --> 01:10:04,350
Can you take it all separately?

1530
01:10:04,350 --> 01:10:05,460
No, you cannot.

1531
01:10:05,460 --> 01:10:07,180
So then what do you do?

1532
01:10:07,180 --> 01:10:10,470
So at one extreme, then
you can think of really,

1533
01:10:10,470 --> 01:10:13,470
everything is interconnected
with everything else.

1534
01:10:13,470 --> 01:10:16,320
If that is the case,
then you are in a mess.

1535
01:10:16,320 --> 01:10:18,087
That mess simply
cannot be untangled.

1536
01:10:18,087 --> 01:10:19,170
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Right.

1537
01:10:19,170 --> 01:10:21,253
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Then, you
can argue that, no, no,

1538
01:10:21,253 --> 01:10:23,910
you are essentially being
reductionist, because you

1539
01:10:23,910 --> 01:10:28,200
are trying to reduce the problem
to something that is simpler.

1540
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:29,580
To some extent, yes.

1541
01:10:29,580 --> 01:10:32,400
But what we want to
be careful really

1542
01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:35,850
when I'm defining the
problem for the dry season,

1543
01:10:35,850 --> 01:10:38,100
I don't want it to be
a reductionist problem

1544
01:10:38,100 --> 01:10:41,850
that basically we do not
get affected by flood.

1545
01:10:41,850 --> 01:10:43,980
So I need to be careful really--

1546
01:10:43,980 --> 01:10:47,550
the rest of the dry
season is eight months.

1547
01:10:47,550 --> 01:10:51,210
These eight months will affect
the other four months too.

1548
01:10:51,210 --> 01:10:51,930
How?

1549
01:10:51,930 --> 01:10:53,010
That is the question.

1550
01:10:53,010 --> 01:10:56,440
If they are cleanly
separable, then it's easy.

1551
01:10:56,440 --> 01:10:58,890
But they are not cleanly
separable, they will not be.

1552
01:10:58,890 --> 01:11:00,600
So this is what the
complexity will come.

1553
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:03,238
I don't think how hard we try
you will be able to go in.

1554
01:11:03,238 --> 01:11:05,280
That's the reason scientific
method is important,

1555
01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:09,670
because you need to keep this
idea of experimentation valid.

1556
01:11:09,670 --> 01:11:11,160
So you observe,
you ask questions,

1557
01:11:11,160 --> 01:11:13,440
you hypothesize your
experiment, analyze, conclude,

1558
01:11:13,440 --> 01:11:15,000
and keep doing this.

1559
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:17,573
Then you go here.

1560
01:11:17,573 --> 01:11:18,990
So I think that
this I don't think

1561
01:11:18,990 --> 01:11:21,420
we need to call this
because this is more into--

1562
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:26,290
recognize that basically
there is no panacea here.

1563
01:11:26,290 --> 01:11:28,520
See, if there is no
panacea, then what is there?

1564
01:11:28,520 --> 01:11:31,010
What I am saying that we need
to be precise in diagnosing

1565
01:11:31,010 --> 01:11:32,960
the problem.

1566
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:35,750
So here the whole approach
that we are trying to take

1567
01:11:35,750 --> 01:11:38,060
is that this is a
problem-driven approach.

1568
01:11:38,060 --> 01:11:40,500
It is not a
theory-driven approach.

1569
01:11:40,500 --> 01:11:42,290
So I have a problem.

1570
01:11:42,290 --> 01:11:46,160
That problem is to solve
dry season water problem

1571
01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:49,070
in Bangladesh or in India.

1572
01:11:49,070 --> 01:11:51,940
Now to do this, so that is
my diagnosis of the problem.

1573
01:11:51,940 --> 01:11:54,730
Now what are the facets
of the diagnosis?

1574
01:11:54,730 --> 01:11:56,950
What aspect do I need to do?

1575
01:11:56,950 --> 01:12:01,300
Is it really to keep
Kolkata port navigable?

1576
01:12:01,300 --> 01:12:06,160
Or is it really to stop
saltwater [INAUDIBLE]

1577
01:12:06,160 --> 01:12:09,200
in Bangladesh?

1578
01:12:09,200 --> 01:12:10,280
Or both are important.

1579
01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:12,810
If both are important,
then how do I try to see,

1580
01:12:12,810 --> 01:12:15,080
given the limited amount
of water that I have,

1581
01:12:15,080 --> 01:12:16,610
can I do both?

1582
01:12:16,610 --> 01:12:19,490
If I cannot, then do
I have other options?

1583
01:12:19,490 --> 01:12:22,040
What if I use ground water?

1584
01:12:22,040 --> 01:12:25,220
Can I use groundwater in a
year and next year basically

1585
01:12:25,220 --> 01:12:27,530
I have more rain it gets filled.

1586
01:12:27,530 --> 01:12:29,570
With the groundwater, I
cannot use it forever,

1587
01:12:29,570 --> 01:12:31,340
because it will get depleted.

1588
01:12:31,340 --> 01:12:33,690
So those are the type of
discussion that has to happen.

1589
01:12:33,690 --> 01:12:36,830
So precisely the point
with complex system

1590
01:12:36,830 --> 01:12:40,250
is that complex systems
will not allow you to give

1591
01:12:40,250 --> 01:12:43,430
a solution that is static.

1592
01:12:43,430 --> 01:12:45,200
It will give you
a solution given

1593
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:50,380
that particular problem, given
that time and space scale.

1594
01:12:50,380 --> 01:12:54,430
Then what we need to be
careful is that we monitor

1595
01:12:54,430 --> 01:12:58,700
and we keep adapting to
the changing situations.

1596
01:12:58,700 --> 01:13:01,060
So that being said, we
have to embrace complexity

1597
01:13:01,060 --> 01:13:02,518
with humility then.

1598
01:13:02,518 --> 01:13:04,310
That is not basically
I'm going to give you

1599
01:13:04,310 --> 01:13:05,540
a solution, that you have it.

1600
01:13:05,540 --> 01:13:07,790
There is no prescription
that is universal.

1601
01:13:07,790 --> 01:13:09,020
I cannot do it.

1602
01:13:09,020 --> 01:13:11,300
I'm just being very
honest and blunt.

1603
01:13:11,300 --> 01:13:13,850
But at the same time, I'm
giving you a framework.

1604
01:13:13,850 --> 01:13:17,540
That framework would allow you
to do things in certain ways.

1605
01:13:17,540 --> 01:13:19,970
Then you think in
a systematic way.

1606
01:13:19,970 --> 01:13:21,060
What does that mean?

1607
01:13:21,060 --> 01:13:22,700
That means that
you try to define

1608
01:13:22,700 --> 01:13:24,860
what your system boundary is.

1609
01:13:24,860 --> 01:13:27,690
What are the nodes and
links in that system?

1610
01:13:27,690 --> 01:13:30,980
So that when you get
this spaghetti diagram,

1611
01:13:30,980 --> 01:13:33,680
what are the nodes
and links that

1612
01:13:33,680 --> 01:13:36,410
create this spaghetti
diagram and that is

1613
01:13:36,410 --> 01:13:40,738
understandable and
systematically manageable?

1614
01:13:40,738 --> 01:13:42,530
Then you say, OK, I
diagnose and prescribe.

1615
01:13:42,530 --> 01:13:44,238
So I'm saying that
you need to prescribe.

1616
01:13:44,238 --> 01:13:46,040
So how do you prescribe then?

1617
01:13:46,040 --> 01:13:49,340
The way you prescribe
by understanding

1618
01:13:49,340 --> 01:13:55,070
the capacity of the system,
as well as the constraint

1619
01:13:55,070 --> 01:13:57,820
that system imposes on you.

1620
01:13:57,820 --> 01:14:01,210
What that means, really,
the capacity and constraints

1621
01:14:01,210 --> 01:14:04,030
for the Ganges between
Bangladesh and India

1622
01:14:04,030 --> 01:14:06,490
will be quite
different, if you are

1623
01:14:06,490 --> 01:14:11,490
trying to do it for the Nile
between Egypt and Ethiopia.

1624
01:14:11,490 --> 01:14:14,390
So the challenge here is that
you have diagnosed the problem.

1625
01:14:14,390 --> 01:14:16,490
Now you have to give
some prescription.

1626
01:14:16,490 --> 01:14:20,960
That prescription must be
consistent with the capacity

1627
01:14:20,960 --> 01:14:22,880
that your system has.

1628
01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:25,910
And that capacity can involve
basically from human capital

1629
01:14:25,910 --> 01:14:28,670
to basically actual
assets of money

1630
01:14:28,670 --> 01:14:31,520
to cultural values
and everything else.

1631
01:14:31,520 --> 01:14:37,560
But not all of them are
important at any given time.

1632
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:39,900
The challenge for us
as a water diplomat

1633
01:14:39,900 --> 01:14:46,250
is to find out what those are
and try to define that subset.

1634
01:14:46,250 --> 01:14:48,740
Otherwise, this
set is very large.

1635
01:14:48,740 --> 01:14:51,080
You can go to the Ganges
and assume that, look,

1636
01:14:51,080 --> 01:14:53,870
Ganges water is probably one
of the most polluted water

1637
01:14:53,870 --> 01:14:54,800
in the world.

1638
01:14:54,800 --> 01:14:59,480
But it is the most holy
water for Hindus in India.

1639
01:14:59,480 --> 01:15:03,080
So I cannot basically start
questioning the cultural value.

1640
01:15:03,080 --> 01:15:05,757
That has to be
taken into account.

1641
01:15:05,757 --> 01:15:07,340
So that is the
capacity and constraint

1642
01:15:07,340 --> 01:15:10,550
the system is imposing on me.

1643
01:15:10,550 --> 01:15:13,820
Then I said that
there is no panacea.

1644
01:15:13,820 --> 01:15:16,550
So let's be clear about this,
that there is no simple,

1645
01:15:16,550 --> 01:15:18,800
generalizable best practices.

1646
01:15:21,410 --> 01:15:23,486
Then I said, OK--

1647
01:15:23,486 --> 01:15:25,220
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
Excuse me, Shafik.

1648
01:15:25,220 --> 01:15:28,520
When you say diagnose
and prescribe,

1649
01:15:28,520 --> 01:15:32,540
using capacity and
constraints, you

1650
01:15:32,540 --> 01:15:34,633
don't mean that you can't
enhance the capacity.

1651
01:15:34,633 --> 01:15:36,050
PROFESSOR ISLAM:
You can, you can.

1652
01:15:36,050 --> 01:15:38,008
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: With
resources from outside

1653
01:15:38,008 --> 01:15:38,810
the system, right?

1654
01:15:38,810 --> 01:15:40,018
PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, I don't.

1655
01:15:40,018 --> 01:15:42,870
I think very good
point, no question.

1656
01:15:42,870 --> 01:15:43,370
Exactly.

1657
01:15:43,370 --> 01:15:45,860
I think we need to
bring in other--

1658
01:15:45,860 --> 01:15:48,810
capacity is not fixed.

1659
01:15:48,810 --> 01:15:51,645
Capacity can be enhanced,
capacity can be reinforced,

1660
01:15:51,645 --> 01:15:54,060
even I think can be
built, and even can

1661
01:15:54,060 --> 01:15:57,430
be taken as an outside energy.

1662
01:15:57,430 --> 01:16:01,860
So World Bank can create more--
basically can put in money.

1663
01:16:01,860 --> 01:16:02,742
Absolutely.

1664
01:16:02,742 --> 01:16:04,950
I think I need to be a little
bit more careful there.

1665
01:16:08,870 --> 01:16:12,170
No let's not assume that the
system capacity and constraints

1666
01:16:12,170 --> 01:16:13,080
are fixed.

1667
01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:13,580
OK.

1668
01:16:17,760 --> 01:16:20,820
So the question is, basically,
do we need anything else.

1669
01:16:20,820 --> 01:16:23,020
Because I'm also teaching
a similar class at Tufts.

1670
01:16:23,020 --> 01:16:24,990
So we need to pose
this question.

1671
01:16:24,990 --> 01:16:28,020
So I'm asking maybe
you guys also that.

1672
01:16:28,020 --> 01:16:33,330
OK, is this more or less
general abstract level of things

1673
01:16:33,330 --> 01:16:36,300
that we need to do to start
addressing the problem?

1674
01:16:36,300 --> 01:16:40,780
Then we'll get into very quickly
our arsenic problem, then

1675
01:16:40,780 --> 01:16:43,508
how this can be
applied in real-time.

1676
01:16:43,508 --> 01:16:45,550
I don't know-- how much
time do we have, Animesh?

1677
01:16:48,760 --> 01:16:50,900
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: We have
about 10 or 15 minutes.

1678
01:16:50,900 --> 01:16:51,733
PROFESSOR ISLAM: OK.

1679
01:16:51,733 --> 01:16:52,843
So, all right.

1680
01:16:52,843 --> 01:16:53,760
So let's do the thing.

1681
01:16:53,760 --> 01:16:55,200
Maybe I'll just go into this.

1682
01:16:55,200 --> 01:16:58,170
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Could you
just go back one for a minute

1683
01:16:58,170 --> 01:17:01,010
to the diagram, to
the list you had?

1684
01:17:01,010 --> 01:17:05,530
You said, in the question marks
at the end, is that sufficient.

1685
01:17:05,530 --> 01:17:06,345
Is that complete?

1686
01:17:06,345 --> 01:17:07,540
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Do
we need anything else.

1687
01:17:07,540 --> 01:17:08,670
It's like one
question you raised,

1688
01:17:08,670 --> 01:17:10,585
I think I need to use
this [INAUDIBLE]----

1689
01:17:10,585 --> 01:17:12,540
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
My uneasiness

1690
01:17:12,540 --> 01:17:20,370
with that list is that, if
you're going to act adaptively,

1691
01:17:20,370 --> 01:17:26,040
if you're going to continue to
review and change what you are

1692
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:32,250
doing, you need to have
the institutional capacity

1693
01:17:32,250 --> 01:17:33,203
to do that.

1694
01:17:33,203 --> 01:17:34,120
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure.

1695
01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:40,820
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: To build
the institutional capacity

1696
01:17:40,820 --> 01:17:45,860
to think and act systematically
to build the capacity,

1697
01:17:45,860 --> 01:17:51,050
to act adaptively.

1698
01:17:51,050 --> 01:17:57,560
And so the person who's talking
about taking action, I think,

1699
01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:01,850
needs to think about
the institutional design

1700
01:18:01,850 --> 01:18:05,540
for the process that
makes this list possible.

1701
01:18:05,540 --> 01:18:08,373
And that itself becomes
an item on the list.

1702
01:18:08,373 --> 01:18:09,290
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure.

1703
01:18:09,290 --> 01:18:09,860
Good point.

1704
01:18:12,478 --> 01:18:13,270
Any other thoughts?

1705
01:18:19,140 --> 01:18:22,140
All right, let's
see whether we can--

1706
01:18:22,140 --> 01:18:23,920
so essentially that
what we are arguing--

1707
01:18:23,920 --> 01:18:25,632
so I hope I convinced
you-- that there

1708
01:18:25,632 --> 01:18:27,090
is no established
methodology exist

1709
01:18:27,090 --> 01:18:29,730
to resolve complex problem,
because these problems are not

1710
01:18:29,730 --> 01:18:31,340
deterministic nor random.

1711
01:18:31,340 --> 01:18:33,840
So that means you cannot use
classical physics or you cannot

1712
01:18:33,840 --> 01:18:37,030
use statistical
mechanics to do this.

1713
01:18:37,030 --> 01:18:39,670
Then, at the same
time, these problems

1714
01:18:39,670 --> 01:18:43,350
can neither be fully explored
by the positivist, meaning

1715
01:18:43,350 --> 01:18:45,270
this hypothesis testing
type of framework

1716
01:18:45,270 --> 01:18:48,000
that I was arguing
that with five senses.

1717
01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:50,700
So you cannot just use
scientific methods.

1718
01:18:50,700 --> 01:18:54,470
Nor can you use just
interpretations.

1719
01:18:54,470 --> 01:18:57,670
So it's not that basically
you can use either/or methods.

1720
01:18:57,670 --> 01:19:00,070
So you cannot use purely
scientific method.

1721
01:19:00,070 --> 01:19:01,810
You cannot use
purely subjective,

1722
01:19:01,810 --> 01:19:05,300
ethnographic methods to
address these problems.

1723
01:19:05,300 --> 01:19:07,000
What then you have
to do really is

1724
01:19:07,000 --> 01:19:09,490
somewhere to basically
combine your scientific facts

1725
01:19:09,490 --> 01:19:11,420
and social facts.

1726
01:19:11,420 --> 01:19:12,680
So that's what it's all about.

1727
01:19:12,680 --> 01:19:15,350
And if you look at the paper
that I sent you to read,

1728
01:19:15,350 --> 01:19:17,770
the arsenic contamination
problem essentially tries to do

1729
01:19:17,770 --> 01:19:22,600
this, is to explain the
problem from a scientific facts

1730
01:19:22,600 --> 01:19:25,360
perspective, then use
the understanding--

1731
01:19:25,360 --> 01:19:26,740
meaning the social facts--

1732
01:19:26,740 --> 01:19:28,580
to actually address the problem.

1733
01:19:28,580 --> 01:19:30,610
So what that means to
you is-- so let's go back

1734
01:19:30,610 --> 01:19:31,860
and visiting your [INAUDIBLE].

1735
01:19:31,860 --> 01:19:32,860
I don't go here.

1736
01:19:32,860 --> 01:19:34,420
So I go here.

1737
01:19:34,420 --> 01:19:36,290
So I use an illustrative case.

1738
01:19:36,290 --> 01:19:40,950
Illustrative case is that
it can support a theory.

1739
01:19:40,950 --> 01:19:43,190
So the arsenic
contamination problem

1740
01:19:43,190 --> 01:19:46,160
is used here as an
illustrative case.

1741
01:19:46,160 --> 01:19:49,040
Meaning that if you illustrate
that, it's a complex problem.

1742
01:19:49,040 --> 01:19:53,840
But it does not really provide
any validation of the theory.

1743
01:19:53,840 --> 01:19:56,090
But we've also used it
as an extended case.

1744
01:19:56,090 --> 01:19:58,940
Meaning that if I
take this case and I

1745
01:19:58,940 --> 01:20:02,180
look at all the features,
what I see really here is this

1746
01:20:02,180 --> 01:20:05,630
is a couple natural and
human system problem.

1747
01:20:05,630 --> 01:20:08,120
In this couple of natural
and human system problem,

1748
01:20:08,120 --> 01:20:13,260
when I intervene, it gives
rise to emergent properties.

1749
01:20:13,260 --> 01:20:16,020
And then it becomes
a complex problem.

1750
01:20:16,020 --> 01:20:19,430
So that means I can
use this to show really

1751
01:20:19,430 --> 01:20:21,860
when you have this
type of coupling,

1752
01:20:21,860 --> 01:20:23,990
you will expect these
type of things to happen.

1753
01:20:26,550 --> 01:20:28,970
So now if you take,
actually what happened then.

1754
01:20:28,970 --> 01:20:31,310
So basically
Bangladesh has decided

1755
01:20:31,310 --> 01:20:33,857
that they will promote
groundwater use as a case study

1756
01:20:33,857 --> 01:20:34,940
that we are using it here.

1757
01:20:34,940 --> 01:20:36,852
There are two policy goals.

1758
01:20:36,852 --> 01:20:38,810
They want to increase
agricultural productivity

1759
01:20:38,810 --> 01:20:40,200
and reduce infant mortality.

1760
01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:43,070
So these were the policy
goals they wanted to do--

1761
01:20:43,070 --> 01:20:46,490
very sharp, very well-defined,
easily measurable.

1762
01:20:46,490 --> 01:20:51,292
And then you go and
then you see this.

1763
01:20:51,292 --> 01:20:53,000
So this is where
essentially-- now if you

1764
01:20:53,000 --> 01:20:56,000
try to re-link all these
different components,

1765
01:20:56,000 --> 01:21:00,830
different variables, processes,
now you see this is a mess.

1766
01:21:00,830 --> 01:21:03,140
And this mess really is not new.

1767
01:21:03,140 --> 01:21:04,685
And this is not even our mess.

1768
01:21:04,685 --> 01:21:06,920
I think many people have
created this type of mess.

1769
01:21:06,920 --> 01:21:09,540
They call this system diagram,
an interaction diagram,

1770
01:21:09,540 --> 01:21:10,340
whatever.

1771
01:21:10,340 --> 01:21:13,310
And we are seeing that
this is really so old,

1772
01:21:13,310 --> 01:21:15,920
basically it doesn't
allow me to do anything.

1773
01:21:15,920 --> 01:21:18,832
I just totally get paralyzed.

1774
01:21:18,832 --> 01:21:20,540
So it's not going to
work, because things

1775
01:21:20,540 --> 01:21:21,332
are interconnected.

1776
01:21:21,332 --> 01:21:22,400
We understand that part.

1777
01:21:22,400 --> 01:21:25,880
The question then becomes,
how do you diagnose or sharply

1778
01:21:25,880 --> 01:21:29,810
define the problem that not
all of these links and nodes

1779
01:21:29,810 --> 01:21:31,430
are equally important.

1780
01:21:31,430 --> 01:21:33,680
Only some are.

1781
01:21:33,680 --> 01:21:35,750
The question is, which are.

1782
01:21:35,750 --> 01:21:37,260
So in the case of
dry seasonal flow,

1783
01:21:37,260 --> 01:21:38,510
we gave you an example relief.

1784
01:21:38,510 --> 01:21:39,635
That is what we want to do.

1785
01:21:39,635 --> 01:21:42,680
So that's a much
simpler definition

1786
01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:44,493
of the problem with
the interconnections

1787
01:21:44,493 --> 01:21:45,410
and interdependencies.

1788
01:21:45,410 --> 01:21:46,680
Those will be needed.

1789
01:21:46,680 --> 01:21:49,620
Once you have that,
then you can go here.

1790
01:21:49,620 --> 01:21:51,470
So if you look at what
Bangladesh has done,

1791
01:21:51,470 --> 01:21:53,570
they wanted to have
two policy goals.

1792
01:21:53,570 --> 01:21:56,848
And these were achieved really
with tremendous success.

1793
01:21:56,848 --> 01:21:58,640
It has increased
agricultural productivity,

1794
01:21:58,640 --> 01:22:00,740
decreased infant mortality.

1795
01:22:00,740 --> 01:22:04,480
Agricultural productivity
has gone up by almost 100%.

1796
01:22:04,480 --> 01:22:07,740
Infant mortality was the
lowest in South Asia.

1797
01:22:07,740 --> 01:22:10,540
So in those terms, it
was very good really,

1798
01:22:10,540 --> 01:22:16,820
very basically successful story
from 1960 to almost 1980s.

1799
01:22:16,820 --> 01:22:19,190
Then what you started seeing,
the arsenic contamination

1800
01:22:19,190 --> 01:22:21,200
emerges now.

1801
01:22:21,200 --> 01:22:23,660
In 1960, they did not expect
that arsenic contamination

1802
01:22:23,660 --> 01:22:24,758
would come.

1803
01:22:24,758 --> 01:22:26,300
The difficulty they
have created they

1804
01:22:26,300 --> 01:22:28,520
have not measured so they
are not following it.

1805
01:22:28,520 --> 01:22:30,743
So they were not really
monitoring the progress.

1806
01:22:30,743 --> 01:22:31,910
They are not being adaptive.

1807
01:22:31,910 --> 01:22:33,570
They did not care.

1808
01:22:33,570 --> 01:22:35,240
So as a result, it emerges.

1809
01:22:35,240 --> 01:22:38,090
Even that emergence did not
really lead to any action.

1810
01:22:38,090 --> 01:22:41,570
It took another 15 years.

1811
01:22:41,570 --> 01:22:45,830
On the day first the arsenic
was detected in water,

1812
01:22:45,830 --> 01:22:48,200
then to actually create
something at the government

1813
01:22:48,200 --> 01:22:49,430
level, it took 15 years.

1814
01:22:49,430 --> 01:22:51,690
Why did it take that long?

1815
01:22:51,690 --> 01:22:54,030
So that's where basically
the system failed.

1816
01:22:54,030 --> 01:22:55,610
Then you have
taken interventions

1817
01:22:55,610 --> 01:22:58,187
which led to even more
unintended emergence.

1818
01:22:58,187 --> 01:23:00,020
If you remember, really,
you looked at this.

1819
01:23:00,020 --> 01:23:03,260
Basically, they put
red and green wells.

1820
01:23:03,260 --> 01:23:06,050
Now the villages
that had red wells

1821
01:23:06,050 --> 01:23:09,500
now have problems with
basically girls getting married

1822
01:23:09,500 --> 01:23:12,200
because they have a stigma.

1823
01:23:12,200 --> 01:23:14,270
So you have created
a social stigma

1824
01:23:14,270 --> 01:23:16,760
by creating a solution
that you wanted

1825
01:23:16,760 --> 01:23:19,880
to do because you wanted to
let people know that there

1826
01:23:19,880 --> 01:23:25,440
is this well is red, meaning it
has high arsenic concentration.

1827
01:23:25,440 --> 01:23:26,930
So where did that come from?

1828
01:23:31,610 --> 01:23:33,200
What we learn from
this, this was

1829
01:23:33,200 --> 01:23:37,210
a theory-driven,
causality-based reasoning.

1830
01:23:37,210 --> 01:23:38,660
What did that come from?

1831
01:23:38,660 --> 01:23:44,080
So that really came from if
you know the story of cholera

1832
01:23:44,080 --> 01:23:47,130
in London in 1854.

1833
01:23:47,130 --> 01:23:50,550
And John Snow found out that--
he was an epidemiologist--

1834
01:23:50,550 --> 01:23:53,340
he found out that there is
a cholera outbreak in London

1835
01:23:53,340 --> 01:23:55,450
and they cannot find
out what is going on.

1836
01:23:55,450 --> 01:23:58,470
So he did a very systematic
way of finding out

1837
01:23:58,470 --> 01:24:01,740
who has cholera, where the
drinking water is coming from.

1838
01:24:01,740 --> 01:24:04,080
And he found out the well.

1839
01:24:04,080 --> 01:24:07,710
And he went and basically
shut that well down.

1840
01:24:07,710 --> 01:24:10,100
Cholera went away.

1841
01:24:10,100 --> 01:24:13,190
So that is basically my
theory, or by basically

1842
01:24:13,190 --> 01:24:16,400
scientific knowledge that
I used in Bangladesh also,

1843
01:24:16,400 --> 01:24:17,900
without understanding
anything else.

1844
01:24:17,900 --> 01:24:21,440
So I basically went and start
painting everything red,

1845
01:24:21,440 --> 01:24:24,150
because Snow did it
and it stopped cholera.

1846
01:24:24,150 --> 01:24:25,980
So if I do this,
arsenic will be stopped.

1847
01:24:25,980 --> 01:24:26,960
Yes, it will be.

1848
01:24:26,960 --> 01:24:30,590
The only difficulty there is
that this is rural Bangladesh.

1849
01:24:30,590 --> 01:24:34,940
Number 1, I have over 10 million
wells right now and not one.

1850
01:24:34,940 --> 01:24:38,600
So as a result, my theory
doesn't go with actually what

1851
01:24:38,600 --> 01:24:40,770
is happening on the ground.

1852
01:24:40,770 --> 01:24:42,170
So we got into serious mess.

1853
01:24:42,170 --> 01:24:46,380
And that took another
20 years to unfold.

1854
01:24:46,380 --> 01:24:49,580
So what would happen, in a
principled pragmatic approach,

1855
01:24:49,580 --> 01:24:51,380
what you want to do,
you want to find out

1856
01:24:51,380 --> 01:24:53,010
the problem-driven question.

1857
01:24:53,010 --> 01:24:56,330
So the question was that, OK,
so I have infant mortality

1858
01:24:56,330 --> 01:24:58,710
problem in Bangladesh.

1859
01:24:58,710 --> 01:25:01,010
So to solve that infant
mortality problem,

1860
01:25:01,010 --> 01:25:02,930
I found out the
quickest solution.

1861
01:25:02,930 --> 01:25:05,060
What is the quickest solution?

1862
01:25:05,060 --> 01:25:06,890
Dig some shallow wells.

1863
01:25:06,890 --> 01:25:08,510
It's cheaper, it's quicker.

1864
01:25:08,510 --> 01:25:09,080
Fine.

1865
01:25:09,080 --> 01:25:10,340
And we've done that.

1866
01:25:10,340 --> 01:25:12,090
And that is perfectly fine.

1867
01:25:12,090 --> 01:25:15,710
What was missing there is that
they did not monitor really

1868
01:25:15,710 --> 01:25:17,300
the progression of this.

1869
01:25:17,300 --> 01:25:19,250
They just assumed that
it's a simple solution.

1870
01:25:19,250 --> 01:25:20,780
It'll stay forever.

1871
01:25:20,780 --> 01:25:22,310
If they have
monitored this, they

1872
01:25:22,310 --> 01:25:24,530
would have found out long ago.

1873
01:25:24,530 --> 01:25:26,750
That's why we're seeing
this problem-driven question

1874
01:25:26,750 --> 01:25:29,630
with hypotheses consistent
with observed signals.

1875
01:25:29,630 --> 01:25:33,080
I need to keep observing
the system as it evolves.

1876
01:25:33,080 --> 01:25:35,720
If I can do this, then
I have an approach that

1877
01:25:35,720 --> 01:25:38,670
is more or less functional.

1878
01:25:38,670 --> 01:25:41,310
So to summarize then,
basically, what we need to do,

1879
01:25:41,310 --> 01:25:45,240
we need to first find out a very
sharp definition of the problem

1880
01:25:45,240 --> 01:25:47,100
that we want to address.

1881
01:25:47,100 --> 01:25:50,580
Then find out whether is
this is a simple problem,

1882
01:25:50,580 --> 01:25:53,280
complicated problem,
or a complex problem.

1883
01:25:53,280 --> 01:25:55,980
Then find out, if it is a
complex problem, then what

1884
01:25:55,980 --> 01:25:57,870
is the complexity coming from.

1885
01:25:57,870 --> 01:26:00,720
Is the complexity coming
from the scientific unknown

1886
01:26:00,720 --> 01:26:02,770
or is it coming from
the social fact?

1887
01:26:02,770 --> 01:26:04,800
Those are alternatives.

1888
01:26:04,800 --> 01:26:07,200
Then try to
synthesize these two.

1889
01:26:07,200 --> 01:26:11,550
Then design an intervention with
some basically targeted metric,

1890
01:26:11,550 --> 01:26:13,140
that this is what I want to do.

1891
01:26:13,140 --> 01:26:16,140
And then monitor
this as you go along.

1892
01:26:16,140 --> 01:26:18,530
Then you could be
adaptive and find

1893
01:26:18,530 --> 01:26:21,420
a solution that will
basically be resilient

1894
01:26:21,420 --> 01:26:23,680
and changes over time.

1895
01:26:23,680 --> 01:26:25,287
There is no universal solution.

1896
01:26:25,287 --> 01:26:27,120
So if have you one
message you want to take,

1897
01:26:27,120 --> 01:26:30,930
I think that will be that there
is no universal generalizable

1898
01:26:30,930 --> 01:26:33,280
solution for complex systems.

1899
01:26:33,280 --> 01:26:36,330
Complex systems will
bring even more problems

1900
01:26:36,330 --> 01:26:37,890
once you try to solve them.

1901
01:26:37,890 --> 01:26:39,450
By the time you
have solved them,

1902
01:26:39,450 --> 01:26:41,770
you have given rise to
another set of problems.

1903
01:26:41,770 --> 01:26:43,300
And this is also
nothing new really.

1904
01:26:43,300 --> 01:26:46,830
This has been done with Larry's
department for many years,

1905
01:26:46,830 --> 01:26:48,990
from like Sean to other people.

1906
01:26:48,990 --> 01:26:53,800
They have talked about these
problems almost 50 years ago,

1907
01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:56,080
that the idea of
when you're trying

1908
01:26:56,080 --> 01:27:00,940
to do these social problems, by
the time you solve the problem,

1909
01:27:00,940 --> 01:27:03,843
you have given rise to
another set of problems.

1910
01:27:03,843 --> 01:27:05,260
So the challenge
is to essentially

1911
01:27:05,260 --> 01:27:11,680
be very aware of that
problem nature will change.

1912
01:27:11,680 --> 01:27:16,890
And if it does, how do I detect
them early on so that I can be

1913
01:27:16,890 --> 01:27:20,380
adaptive and act accordingly?

1914
01:27:20,380 --> 01:27:21,100
We'll stop here.

1915
01:27:25,060 --> 01:27:30,120
DR. GAIN: So do you have any
final question for Shafik?

1916
01:27:33,417 --> 01:27:36,440
AUDIENCE: What are your thoughts
about the enabling conditions

1917
01:27:36,440 --> 01:27:39,908
between India and
Pakistan on taking up

1918
01:27:39,908 --> 01:27:41,450
the divisions in
Ganges Water Treaty?

1919
01:27:43,550 --> 01:27:45,550
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Enabling
conditions should be--

1920
01:27:45,550 --> 01:27:46,960
those will remain three.

1921
01:27:46,960 --> 01:27:49,150
What you want to do,
hopefully, I think,

1922
01:27:49,150 --> 01:27:55,250
is that what are the main
issues of contention right now.

1923
01:27:55,250 --> 01:27:57,860
That needs to be discussed,
because I have not

1924
01:27:57,860 --> 01:28:00,030
following recently
about the industry.

1925
01:28:00,030 --> 01:28:03,240
So what would be good
I think for if you

1926
01:28:03,240 --> 01:28:08,180
can identify one or two
things that both countries are

1927
01:28:08,180 --> 01:28:09,470
in disagreement with.

1928
01:28:09,470 --> 01:28:10,400
What is that really?

1929
01:28:10,400 --> 01:28:11,650
So I can give you one example.

1930
01:28:11,650 --> 01:28:14,060
For example, for Brahmaputra
is that what I followed

1931
01:28:14,060 --> 01:28:16,820
recently is, say,
for example, India

1932
01:28:16,820 --> 01:28:19,910
is claiming that China
is holding all the water

1933
01:28:19,910 --> 01:28:23,140
and then it will create problem.

1934
01:28:23,140 --> 01:28:25,690
Physically, that is not true.

1935
01:28:25,690 --> 01:28:28,930
Because the amount of water that
is coming from Burma for China,

1936
01:28:28,930 --> 01:28:31,300
even if China-- we did
this study with domination,

1937
01:28:31,300 --> 01:28:33,040
with another Chinese
student we had.

1938
01:28:33,040 --> 01:28:36,760
Even if they decide to keep
all the waters in China,

1939
01:28:36,760 --> 01:28:40,180
it will have no impact
in India, although they

1940
01:28:40,180 --> 01:28:42,130
are making that claim.

1941
01:28:42,130 --> 01:28:45,570
So this is essentially a social
myth they want to create,

1942
01:28:45,570 --> 01:28:48,150
that the Chinese are
creating problem.

1943
01:28:48,150 --> 01:28:51,580
But these are not
based on facts.

1944
01:28:51,580 --> 01:28:54,510
So what you want to do
within this, to find out

1945
01:28:54,510 --> 01:28:59,220
is it possible to find some very
sharp scientific facts-- those

1946
01:28:59,220 --> 01:29:00,300
are observable.

1947
01:29:00,300 --> 01:29:02,550
Like one example I
use with Bangladesh

1948
01:29:02,550 --> 01:29:08,440
in India for the Ganges, even
if I give all the water to India

1949
01:29:08,440 --> 01:29:11,110
in the dry season,
India will still not

1950
01:29:11,110 --> 01:29:13,910
be able to basically make
their Kolkata port navigable

1951
01:29:13,910 --> 01:29:15,740
during the dry season.

1952
01:29:15,740 --> 01:29:17,410
So that means this
is a non-starter.

1953
01:29:17,410 --> 01:29:19,180
Why are we start fighting this?

1954
01:29:19,180 --> 01:29:20,530
Try to find something else then.

1955
01:29:22,882 --> 01:29:25,090
Although, of course, it was
scarcest problem if India

1956
01:29:25,090 --> 01:29:27,440
keeps all the water
in the dry season.

1957
01:29:27,440 --> 01:29:30,190
But even if Bangladesh decides
I'll give you everything,

1958
01:29:30,190 --> 01:29:32,270
still it will not
solve the problem.

1959
01:29:32,270 --> 01:29:36,320
So that means you need
alternative sources now.

1960
01:29:36,320 --> 01:29:37,715
That part has not been explored.

1961
01:29:42,890 --> 01:29:44,820
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
Before we finish,

1962
01:29:44,820 --> 01:29:48,660
I just want to
thank Shafik again.

1963
01:29:48,660 --> 01:29:51,010
He and I worked together
a long time on this.

1964
01:29:51,010 --> 01:29:53,100
And I'm always
learning something new

1965
01:29:53,100 --> 01:29:56,700
each time I hear him
present this material.

1966
01:29:56,700 --> 01:29:59,850
So thank you for taking
the time, Shafik, to meet

1967
01:29:59,850 --> 01:30:03,210
with the class and for
sharing your ideas.

1968
01:30:03,210 --> 01:30:05,550
And thank you for
having such good ideas.

1969
01:30:05,550 --> 01:30:06,630
DR. GAIN: Yeah, so.

1970
01:30:06,630 --> 01:30:07,630
PROFESSOR ISLAM: No,
thank you very much.

1971
01:30:07,630 --> 01:30:09,672
No, I think, No, I don't
want to embarrass Larry.

1972
01:30:09,672 --> 01:30:13,610
Larry has been an
inspirational mentor.

1973
01:30:13,610 --> 01:30:16,100
So because many of the
things that I discussed today

1974
01:30:16,100 --> 01:30:19,250
I did not know about maybe 15
years ago when I started out.

1975
01:30:19,250 --> 01:30:21,980
So we have been talking
for a long time now.

1976
01:30:21,980 --> 01:30:24,080
So yeah, if you
look at this guy,

1977
01:30:24,080 --> 01:30:27,610
you said that you need 10,000
hours to develop any expertise.

1978
01:30:27,610 --> 01:30:29,150
So between both
of us, we probably

1979
01:30:29,150 --> 01:30:30,980
spend more than
10,000 hours now.

1980
01:30:30,980 --> 01:30:31,670
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Oh yeah.

1981
01:30:31,670 --> 01:30:33,212
PROFESSOR ISLAM: So
hopefully we have

1982
01:30:33,212 --> 01:30:35,695
some level of at least
understanding in for expertise.

1983
01:30:35,695 --> 01:30:40,027
DR. GAIN: But also, yeah
from our side, yeah.

1984
01:30:40,027 --> 01:30:42,110
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Everybody
in the class, right,

1985
01:30:42,110 --> 01:30:44,810
the other people in this
class are potentially

1986
01:30:44,810 --> 01:30:49,730
the person you'll find yourself
coming back to and working

1987
01:30:49,730 --> 01:30:51,380
with.

1988
01:30:51,380 --> 01:30:53,450
Shafik and I, we did
not know each other

1989
01:30:53,450 --> 01:30:57,800
when we first encountered
some overlap in our interests.

1990
01:30:57,800 --> 01:31:01,250
And we just kept
creating opportunities

1991
01:31:01,250 --> 01:31:05,450
to exchange our thoughts,
and Animesh then

1992
01:31:05,450 --> 01:31:10,550
gets added to the mix and
now extends both of our ideas

1993
01:31:10,550 --> 01:31:12,990
and our work and his own work.

1994
01:31:12,990 --> 01:31:17,390
So everybody in the
class should imagine

1995
01:31:17,390 --> 01:31:20,630
that it's through
these interactions

1996
01:31:20,630 --> 01:31:24,990
with your colleagues that you
shape and sharpen your ideas.

1997
01:31:24,990 --> 01:31:28,040
So Shafik, thank you.

1998
01:31:28,040 --> 01:31:29,070
DR. GAIN: Yeah.

1999
01:31:29,070 --> 01:31:30,620
PROFESSOR ISLAM:
So for the class,

2000
01:31:30,620 --> 01:31:32,130
I think I have a
challenge for you.

2001
01:31:32,130 --> 01:31:34,880
So since you did not share
much of your thoughts,

2002
01:31:34,880 --> 01:31:35,930
maybe you're too shy.

2003
01:31:35,930 --> 01:31:39,270
So think about the arsenic
paper that you read.

2004
01:31:39,270 --> 01:31:42,950
I want you to find out at
least one hole, the one thing

2005
01:31:42,950 --> 01:31:46,550
that you found that this is
really outrageously stupid,

2006
01:31:46,550 --> 01:31:47,790
it's not going to work.

2007
01:31:47,790 --> 01:31:50,870
So I gave the same challenge
to my students also.

2008
01:31:50,870 --> 01:31:53,998
So there are a few things
that I have issues.

2009
01:31:53,998 --> 01:31:55,290
I did not share those with you.

2010
01:31:55,290 --> 01:31:56,780
But I will not
tell you right now.

2011
01:31:56,780 --> 01:32:00,150
But I want you to see really--

2012
01:32:00,150 --> 01:32:02,960
Larry raised something
very interesting here,

2013
01:32:02,960 --> 01:32:05,660
that if the institutional
mechanism is not there,

2014
01:32:05,660 --> 01:32:09,060
if the capacity is constant,
it's not going to work.

2015
01:32:09,060 --> 01:32:10,520
So we need to refine that.

2016
01:32:10,520 --> 01:32:13,340
But are there anything
else you see in terms

2017
01:32:13,340 --> 01:32:16,760
of making it operational?

2018
01:32:16,760 --> 01:32:18,830
See, at one point I said
the complex systems,

2019
01:32:18,830 --> 01:32:20,730
you don't have
generalizable solutions.

2020
01:32:20,730 --> 01:32:22,880
You don't have any prescription.

2021
01:32:22,880 --> 01:32:25,340
But then we are giving
you prescription too.

2022
01:32:25,340 --> 01:32:28,970
So the line is very subtle here.

2023
01:32:28,970 --> 01:32:32,520
But at the same time, I
don't see a way around it.

2024
01:32:32,520 --> 01:32:33,980
So the question is
basically how do

2025
01:32:33,980 --> 01:32:36,230
I bring in these
ideas of principles

2026
01:32:36,230 --> 01:32:40,670
of scientific methods which
are more replicable, more

2027
01:32:40,670 --> 01:32:43,220
reproducible with the
social effects which

2028
01:32:43,220 --> 01:32:47,000
are going to be continuously
subjective, continuously

2029
01:32:47,000 --> 01:32:49,330
contentious.

2030
01:32:49,330 --> 01:32:53,510
But at the same time,
decision has to be made.

2031
01:32:53,510 --> 01:32:55,510
So that's where basically,
where are the hiccups

2032
01:32:55,510 --> 01:32:59,020
or where are the binding
constant that will essentially

2033
01:32:59,020 --> 01:33:01,298
let it fail?

2034
01:33:01,298 --> 01:33:02,840
If you can think of
one or two ideas,

2035
01:33:02,840 --> 01:33:05,480
that would be good,
or maybe an example

2036
01:33:05,480 --> 01:33:07,880
that you have seen
in your real life

2037
01:33:07,880 --> 01:33:11,287
where you try to apply
this and see, did not work.

2038
01:33:11,287 --> 01:33:13,370
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: He
wants you to be a white hat

2039
01:33:13,370 --> 01:33:14,915
hacker of his work.

2040
01:33:14,915 --> 01:33:17,982
PROFESSOR ISLAM:
Yup, that'd be good.

2041
01:33:17,982 --> 01:33:20,868
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Find
programming problems.

2042
01:33:20,868 --> 01:33:21,910
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Exactly.

2043
01:33:21,910 --> 01:33:26,680
So find a hole and then
that will be very nice.

2044
01:33:26,680 --> 01:33:28,240
That's the way ideas
gets challenged.

2045
01:33:28,240 --> 01:33:31,370
Otherwise, because
you will stagnate.

2046
01:33:31,370 --> 01:33:33,550
DR. GAIN: And also,
apart from that,

2047
01:33:33,550 --> 01:33:37,420
even if you have your own
specific issue regarding

2048
01:33:37,420 --> 01:33:41,080
water diplomacy that can
be related to the theory

2049
01:33:41,080 --> 01:33:43,030
that Shafik mentioned,
you can also write him

2050
01:33:43,030 --> 01:33:44,060
an email so that, yeah.

2051
01:33:44,060 --> 01:33:45,310
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure, please.

2052
01:33:45,310 --> 01:33:46,090
Please feel free.

2053
01:33:46,090 --> 01:33:48,340
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: All
right, I'm going to disappear.

2054
01:33:48,340 --> 01:33:49,960
But thank you so much.

2055
01:33:49,960 --> 01:33:51,060
PROFESSOR ISLAM: Thank
you very much, Larry.

2056
01:33:51,060 --> 01:33:52,477
PROFESSOR SUSSKIND:
I look forward

2057
01:33:52,477 --> 01:33:54,940
to the presentation
starting next week.

2058
01:33:54,940 --> 01:33:56,000
OK.

2059
01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:56,560
Bye-bye.

2060
01:33:56,560 --> 01:33:58,060
PROFESSOR ISLAM:
All right. bye-bye.

2061
01:33:58,060 --> 01:33:59,780
DR. GAIN: Yeah,
thank you, thank you.

2062
01:33:59,780 --> 01:34:01,630
AUDIENCE: Thank you.