WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.980 [SQUEAKING] 00:00:01.980 --> 00:00:03.465 [RUSTLING] 00:00:03.465 --> 00:00:04.950 [CLICKING] 00:00:20.540 --> 00:00:23.040 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: So thank you very much for the opportunity 00:00:23.040 --> 00:00:24.580 of the presentation. 00:00:24.580 --> 00:00:26.820 So today, I will be presenting about the Ganges water 00:00:26.820 --> 00:00:29.790 conflicts between India and Bangladesh, which is actually 00:00:29.790 --> 00:00:31.530 one of the major bone of contents 00:00:31.530 --> 00:00:34.060 that's happening between the two neighboring countries. 00:00:34.060 --> 00:00:37.590 So I will be speaking about-- 00:00:37.590 --> 00:00:41.370 it is basically-- it follows three flows. 00:00:41.370 --> 00:00:43.800 The first part, will speak about from where 00:00:43.800 --> 00:00:44.940 the problem originated. 00:00:44.940 --> 00:00:47.280 And the second part will say that-- 00:00:47.280 --> 00:00:48.750 what is the present condition. 00:00:48.750 --> 00:00:50.310 And the third part will be steps, 00:00:50.310 --> 00:00:53.310 which I think will be the most relevant part for our class. 00:00:53.310 --> 00:00:56.670 That is the water diplomacy part on how we can actually 00:00:56.670 --> 00:01:00.940 approach that problem, and how we can try to find a solution. 00:01:00.940 --> 00:01:03.930 So let me go to the next slide. 00:01:03.930 --> 00:01:06.650 So I would be putting a little bit of disclaimer. 00:01:06.650 --> 00:01:08.630 Some part of my discussion might not 00:01:08.630 --> 00:01:10.740 match with Bangladesh government's official view. 00:01:10.740 --> 00:01:16.670 So I would-- this is important because of years of training-- 00:01:16.670 --> 00:01:18.290 because I am not an academic-- 00:01:18.290 --> 00:01:21.330 because of years of training, two things happen. 00:01:21.330 --> 00:01:23.750 The first one is subconsciously-- 00:01:23.750 --> 00:01:26.900 and I have found it even when I've taken classes in Japan 00:01:26.900 --> 00:01:28.250 or in the US-- 00:01:28.250 --> 00:01:31.760 that's automatically, I actually reflect the views 00:01:31.760 --> 00:01:33.560 of a typical Bangladeshi bureaucrat, 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:36.230 the particular government's point of view. 00:01:36.230 --> 00:01:39.650 It is very-- I had to train myself to stay away 00:01:39.650 --> 00:01:42.560 from that view, and try to match with the academic standard, 00:01:42.560 --> 00:01:45.380 and come up with as much as objective point of view as 00:01:45.380 --> 00:01:45.930 possible. 00:01:45.930 --> 00:01:49.430 So here, I would try deliberately, I mean, 00:01:49.430 --> 00:01:51.368 not to match the typical stuff that 00:01:51.368 --> 00:01:52.910 is said by the Bangladesh government, 00:01:52.910 --> 00:01:54.680 or any government too per se. 00:01:54.680 --> 00:01:56.780 So that is one thing. 00:01:56.780 --> 00:01:59.090 And the second part is the political history. 00:01:59.090 --> 00:02:02.540 Because although it's a river treaty, 00:02:02.540 --> 00:02:05.630 but it is very sensitive both for Bangladesh and India. 00:02:05.630 --> 00:02:08.090 And the political history between Bangladesh and India 00:02:08.090 --> 00:02:10.710 has a influence in this whole discussion. 00:02:10.710 --> 00:02:13.730 So knowingly or unknowingly, sometimes 00:02:13.730 --> 00:02:19.650 that political history will visit us in my presentation. 00:02:19.650 --> 00:02:24.330 So with these two disclaimers, I'll start my presentation. 00:02:24.330 --> 00:02:28.310 So first, a little bit of history and geography. 00:02:28.310 --> 00:02:31.670 So you all know about the Indian subcontinent, 00:02:31.670 --> 00:02:32.990 that there are many countries. 00:02:32.990 --> 00:02:36.140 It was basically under the British rule for 200 years. 00:02:36.140 --> 00:02:39.500 And before that, it was 600 years under the Mughals, 00:02:39.500 --> 00:02:40.610 or the Muslims. 00:02:40.610 --> 00:02:46.370 So before 1947, the leftmost, the huge map that you 00:02:46.370 --> 00:02:49.460 see total blue, this is the situation 00:02:49.460 --> 00:02:50.990 of Indian subcontinent. 00:02:50.990 --> 00:02:55.610 And in 1947, right after the Second World War, 00:02:55.610 --> 00:02:58.250 the Indian subcontinent was divided into two. 00:02:58.250 --> 00:03:00.470 And that is after the partition in 1947, 00:03:00.470 --> 00:03:04.790 you can see the green part still stays the India, 00:03:04.790 --> 00:03:06.470 the present day India. 00:03:06.470 --> 00:03:10.550 And the orange part, a deep orange part, that is-- 00:03:10.550 --> 00:03:12.410 on the upper side, it's West Pakistan. 00:03:12.410 --> 00:03:15.230 And on the lower side, this small country, 00:03:15.230 --> 00:03:18.600 it's East Pakistan, which is the modern-day Bangladesh. 00:03:18.600 --> 00:03:26.690 So in 1971, we had a war against the western part of Pakistan. 00:03:26.690 --> 00:03:28.070 It was actually very natural. 00:03:28.070 --> 00:03:31.590 You see that there is almost 2,000 miles 00:03:31.590 --> 00:03:32.690 gap between the two parts. 00:03:32.690 --> 00:03:35.010 So it was obvious for many reasons. 00:03:35.010 --> 00:03:40.730 So in 1971, this first one single country that 00:03:40.730 --> 00:03:44.180 is India, second, India and Pakistan, and after '71, 00:03:44.180 --> 00:03:45.470 it became three countries. 00:03:45.470 --> 00:03:47.970 That is India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. 00:03:47.970 --> 00:03:50.340 So this is the case. 00:03:50.340 --> 00:03:55.310 And here, I'm bringing this little bit of history 00:03:55.310 --> 00:03:58.650 to explain the relationship dynamics of Bangladesh 00:03:58.650 --> 00:03:59.150 and India. 00:03:59.150 --> 00:04:01.280 Because without bringing the relationship dynamics 00:04:01.280 --> 00:04:03.590 between Bangladesh and India, it is kind of 00:04:03.590 --> 00:04:05.420 tough to understand that how and why 00:04:05.420 --> 00:04:07.930 this treaty is so sensitive. 00:04:07.930 --> 00:04:12.850 So here, we can see that in 16 December, 1971, you can see, 00:04:12.850 --> 00:04:14.820 this is the surrender ceremony. 00:04:14.820 --> 00:04:17.560 This is the surrender ceremony of the occupying force in 16 00:04:17.560 --> 00:04:18.190 December. 00:04:18.190 --> 00:04:20.980 And on the left side, 3 million people, 00:04:20.980 --> 00:04:23.590 that is the official number Bangladesh claims. 00:04:23.590 --> 00:04:24.340 It is disputed. 00:04:24.340 --> 00:04:26.500 But this is the official number that it was killed. 00:04:26.500 --> 00:04:28.480 So there was-- we say that there has 00:04:28.480 --> 00:04:31.650 been genocide and murders, which happens almost in all the wars. 00:04:31.650 --> 00:04:33.520 So this is the surrender ceremony. 00:04:33.520 --> 00:04:36.250 And there is an interesting fact, you will see, 00:04:36.250 --> 00:04:40.780 that in the left side, someone who is signing for Bangladesh, 00:04:40.780 --> 00:04:45.060 this is an Indian general, General Jagjit Singh Aurora. 00:04:45.060 --> 00:04:48.270 So you can understand the historical connection 00:04:48.270 --> 00:04:49.740 between India and Bangladesh. 00:04:49.740 --> 00:04:51.060 It's very deep. 00:04:51.060 --> 00:04:53.430 And it used to be-- 00:04:53.430 --> 00:04:57.900 during the liberation war, India directly helped us militarily. 00:04:57.900 --> 00:05:00.960 And later, after the independence, which-- 00:05:00.960 --> 00:05:03.930 both the parties considered that both India and Bangladesh 00:05:03.930 --> 00:05:05.310 would be very friendly. 00:05:05.310 --> 00:05:09.930 But after the independence, that actually changed. 00:05:09.930 --> 00:05:13.180 And major anti-Indian sentiment has been present there. 00:05:13.180 --> 00:05:15.240 And one of the reasons this happened 00:05:15.240 --> 00:05:22.110 is the Farakka Dam, which has created serious trouble 00:05:22.110 --> 00:05:23.080 for Bangladesh. 00:05:23.080 --> 00:05:25.680 And for that, gradually there has been some treaties. 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:28.300 And it was so serious that-- 00:05:28.300 --> 00:05:30.970 let me explain the basics a little bit first. 00:05:30.970 --> 00:05:33.840 So I will be reading from an article by Saidur Rahman. 00:05:33.840 --> 00:05:36.630 So this is the Ganges water basin. 00:05:36.630 --> 00:05:40.390 You can see that, from here, the Ganges is coming, and coming, 00:05:40.390 --> 00:05:40.890 and coming. 00:05:40.890 --> 00:05:42.600 And it is entering from the Hooghly. 00:05:42.600 --> 00:05:45.120 Hooghly falls in the West Bengal. 00:05:45.120 --> 00:05:49.350 So previously, before the partition, Bengal was united. 00:05:49.350 --> 00:05:51.420 So there was no East Bengal or West Bengal. 00:05:51.420 --> 00:05:56.970 So after the partition, one part of Bengal fall into India. 00:05:56.970 --> 00:05:58.480 We speak the same language. 00:05:58.480 --> 00:05:59.640 Our culture is almost same. 00:05:59.640 --> 00:06:02.670 The religion is a little bit different. 00:06:02.670 --> 00:06:05.842 The Hindu majority is in the western part, the West Bengal. 00:06:05.842 --> 00:06:07.800 And the Muslim majority is in the eastern part. 00:06:07.800 --> 00:06:10.463 Because the partition happened for the two nations 00:06:10.463 --> 00:06:12.630 theory, that the Muslims will be living in Pakistan, 00:06:12.630 --> 00:06:14.130 and the Hindus and other religions 00:06:14.130 --> 00:06:15.130 will be living in India. 00:06:15.130 --> 00:06:16.005 So that was a theory. 00:06:16.005 --> 00:06:17.436 But that didn't work. 00:06:17.436 --> 00:06:23.190 So here, when we speak about this Ganges Water Basin, 00:06:23.190 --> 00:06:25.080 we would speak about the Ganges River. 00:06:25.080 --> 00:06:27.900 The Ganges River originates in the central Himalayas 00:06:27.900 --> 00:06:32.400 at the altitude of 7,010 meters, and extends 00:06:32.400 --> 00:06:34.680 into the alluvial and Gangetic plains, 00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:37.860 then drains into the Indian Ocean at the Bay of Bengal. 00:06:37.860 --> 00:06:39.870 The Ganges is a transboundary river, 00:06:39.870 --> 00:06:44.700 which has a total length of approximately 2,600 kilometers 00:06:44.700 --> 00:06:49.920 and a total catchment area of 1,087,000 square kilometer. 00:06:49.920 --> 00:06:53.190 The river basin spreads across India, Nepal, China, 00:06:53.190 --> 00:06:53.970 and Bangladesh. 00:06:53.970 --> 00:06:56.700 Well, India shares the major portion, which 00:06:56.700 --> 00:06:58.920 is 79% of the total basin area. 00:06:58.920 --> 00:07:02.490 And in contrast, Bangladesh is the furthest downstream country 00:07:02.490 --> 00:07:05.100 of the basin and shares only about 4% 00:07:05.100 --> 00:07:07.080 of the basin area, which nevertheless 00:07:07.080 --> 00:07:11.010 represents 37% of the total area of Bangladesh. 00:07:11.010 --> 00:07:14.730 The hydrological cycle and water resources of the Ganges basin 00:07:14.730 --> 00:07:17.400 are governed by a Southwest Monsoon, 00:07:17.400 --> 00:07:20.820 characterized by high temperature, heavy rainfall, 00:07:20.820 --> 00:07:22.890 strong seasonal variations. 00:07:22.890 --> 00:07:24.780 The region is characterized by flooding 00:07:24.780 --> 00:07:27.300 in the wet season, which is June to October, 00:07:27.300 --> 00:07:30.030 and water scarcity in the dry season, which 00:07:30.030 --> 00:07:30.930 is November to May. 00:07:30.930 --> 00:07:34.200 And during the monsoon season, there is an abundance of water. 00:07:34.200 --> 00:07:36.990 But during non-monsoon season, a lower precipitation 00:07:36.990 --> 00:07:39.270 causes a reduced flow in the basin. 00:07:39.270 --> 00:07:42.000 The insufficient supply of water in the downstream 00:07:42.000 --> 00:07:45.210 during the dry season causes significant socioeconomic 00:07:45.210 --> 00:07:48.990 impacts, through disruption to the agriculture, fisheries, 00:07:48.990 --> 00:07:51.640 forestry, and navigation of this region. 00:07:51.640 --> 00:07:54.930 So here, we can see a little bit more details 00:07:54.930 --> 00:07:57.870 of the close-up, the Ganges River that is entering. 00:07:57.870 --> 00:07:58.950 Here is the Farakka Dam. 00:07:58.950 --> 00:08:01.380 And there, it's-- 00:08:01.380 --> 00:08:05.990 Ganges enter Bangladesh through the West Bengal, the Hooghly 00:08:05.990 --> 00:08:07.080 area, Hooghly River. 00:08:07.080 --> 00:08:09.220 And it enters and it becomes Padma, 00:08:09.220 --> 00:08:11.340 which is the biggest river in Bangladesh, also, 00:08:11.340 --> 00:08:13.380 which is the economically most significant river 00:08:13.380 --> 00:08:14.790 in Bangladesh. 00:08:14.790 --> 00:08:18.700 And the impact, you can see in the next picture-- 00:08:18.700 --> 00:08:20.970 you can see that in the lower part, which 00:08:20.970 --> 00:08:24.390 means this part, this whole part, this Ganges 00:08:24.390 --> 00:08:28.470 Delta, the lower part, the Ganges River, when it enters 00:08:28.470 --> 00:08:30.150 Bangladesh, it becomes Padma. 00:08:30.150 --> 00:08:34.799 And any change in the flow, or any climatic change, 00:08:34.799 --> 00:08:37.409 or any man-made change has serious impact 00:08:37.409 --> 00:08:40.350 in the lower region of the southern part of Bangladesh. 00:08:40.350 --> 00:08:43.860 And I actually have seen directly 00:08:43.860 --> 00:08:48.000 because my hometown is actually in the Bagerhat area, which 00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:49.120 is in this region. 00:08:49.120 --> 00:08:52.740 So although it's like anecdotal experience, 00:08:52.740 --> 00:08:56.070 but I can actually see that our village area, 00:08:56.070 --> 00:08:59.670 it was actually very full of flora and fauna. 00:08:59.670 --> 00:09:01.800 But with time, it actually reduced. 00:09:01.800 --> 00:09:07.140 And now, when I go to the village after five or 10 years, 00:09:07.140 --> 00:09:09.160 we see that it has totally changed. 00:09:09.160 --> 00:09:11.400 So this actually matches with the academic articles 00:09:11.400 --> 00:09:12.490 that I've read here. 00:09:12.490 --> 00:09:15.490 So what are the major water diplomacy 00:09:15.490 --> 00:09:18.040 events between Bangladesh and India since 1971? 00:09:18.040 --> 00:09:22.060 As you know that, in 1971, Bangladesh became independent. 00:09:22.060 --> 00:09:23.620 And India had direct help. 00:09:23.620 --> 00:09:25.580 India had direct contribution towards that. 00:09:25.580 --> 00:09:29.770 So in 1972, right after Bangladesh became independent 00:09:29.770 --> 00:09:32.947 in 1971, December, and in 1972, the Bangladesh 00:09:32.947 --> 00:09:34.780 father of the nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, 00:09:34.780 --> 00:09:38.440 and Indian prime minister, Indira Gandhi, they sat down. 00:09:38.440 --> 00:09:40.078 Water was actually an issue back then. 00:09:40.078 --> 00:09:41.620 Water was actually an issue back then 00:09:41.620 --> 00:09:43.900 between India and Pakistan, especially 00:09:43.900 --> 00:09:47.050 this Farakka Dam, the Ganges River water sharing treaty. 00:09:47.050 --> 00:09:52.030 So for the first time, they actually sat down immediately 00:09:52.030 --> 00:09:55.420 after the independence in 1972, which actually 00:09:55.420 --> 00:09:58.420 shows that how important it is for the region 00:09:58.420 --> 00:10:00.640 to maintain the peace and tranquility between the two 00:10:00.640 --> 00:10:01.370 countries. 00:10:01.370 --> 00:10:03.280 So the first joint water commission 00:10:03.280 --> 00:10:06.430 between India and Bangladesh was established in 1972. 00:10:06.430 --> 00:10:09.910 And this newly-made joint water commission 00:10:09.910 --> 00:10:12.220 between India and Bangladesh actually tried to survey. 00:10:12.220 --> 00:10:14.140 And they try to determine what are the course of actions 00:10:14.140 --> 00:10:15.100 that can be taken. 00:10:15.100 --> 00:10:19.510 Because for decades, for India-Pakistan rivalry, 00:10:19.510 --> 00:10:20.990 no development actually happened. 00:10:20.990 --> 00:10:26.920 So in 1974, it was declared by that commission that-- 00:10:26.920 --> 00:10:28.810 there was this joint declaration to resolve 00:10:28.810 --> 00:10:30.492 water sharing issues, the existing 00:10:30.492 --> 00:10:31.450 issues that were there. 00:10:31.450 --> 00:10:34.660 But in 1975, Bangabandhu, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman 00:10:34.660 --> 00:10:36.130 was killed with his family. 00:10:36.130 --> 00:10:37.750 And there was a coup d'état. 00:10:37.750 --> 00:10:39.250 And the military took over. 00:10:39.250 --> 00:10:44.950 So in 1976, India unilaterally withdrew from this declaration. 00:10:44.950 --> 00:10:49.270 So after this happened, in 1977, there 00:10:49.270 --> 00:10:51.220 was this temporary five-year treaty, 00:10:51.220 --> 00:10:55.270 which ended in 1982, which started in 1977, giving 00:10:55.270 --> 00:11:00.370 the Bangladesh national party regime, which is historically 00:11:00.370 --> 00:11:02.200 considered as anti-India. 00:11:02.200 --> 00:11:04.960 So in 1982, it was not renewed. 00:11:04.960 --> 00:11:07.420 And after that, after a long break, 00:11:07.420 --> 00:11:11.750 in 1996, there was this treaty between India and Bangladesh, 00:11:11.750 --> 00:11:14.440 which is a Ganges water sharing treaty between Bangladesh 00:11:14.440 --> 00:11:17.230 and India, which was signed by Deve 00:11:17.230 --> 00:11:19.630 Gowda, the then-prime minister of India 00:11:19.630 --> 00:11:22.900 and the present prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina 00:11:22.900 --> 00:11:23.690 Wazed. 00:11:23.690 --> 00:11:27.010 So this is more or less the major developments. 00:11:27.010 --> 00:11:30.220 And there is this interesting fact 00:11:30.220 --> 00:11:34.780 that is there, that from India to Bangladesh, 00:11:34.780 --> 00:11:36.910 54 rivers actually come. 00:11:36.910 --> 00:11:38.410 And Bangladesh is in the downstream. 00:11:38.410 --> 00:11:39.760 And India is in the upstream. 00:11:39.760 --> 00:11:41.685 54 rivers from India-- 00:11:41.685 --> 00:11:43.060 Bangladesh is a riverine country. 00:11:43.060 --> 00:11:44.920 There is hundreds of rivers. 00:11:44.920 --> 00:11:47.380 54 of them actually comes from India. 00:11:47.380 --> 00:11:51.910 And it is spread in Bangladesh throughout, just like a net. 00:11:51.910 --> 00:11:56.080 But unfortunately, so far, there has been only one treaty, 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:59.350 one proper treaty, which is the Ganges water 00:11:59.350 --> 00:12:00.550 treaty with treaty sharing. 00:12:00.550 --> 00:12:05.140 And for last quarter century, there has been no treaty. 00:12:05.140 --> 00:12:08.467 And another water treaty, the Teesta water treaty, 00:12:08.467 --> 00:12:09.550 there has been many talks. 00:12:09.550 --> 00:12:10.990 But still, there has been no development. 00:12:10.990 --> 00:12:12.820 So we can actually understand that why 00:12:12.820 --> 00:12:15.040 we are speaking about this Ganges water sharing 00:12:15.040 --> 00:12:18.220 treaty and its significance. 00:12:18.220 --> 00:12:20.970 So what do we find in 1996 water treaty 00:12:20.970 --> 00:12:22.570 between Bangladesh and India? 00:12:22.570 --> 00:12:24.360 So this was the treaty. 00:12:24.360 --> 00:12:25.873 This is the very, very minimum. 00:12:25.873 --> 00:12:26.790 That treaty was there. 00:12:32.040 --> 00:12:34.650 The sharing calculation was like this-- 00:12:34.650 --> 00:12:39.420 70,000 cusecs or less water, when it's available, 50% 00:12:39.420 --> 00:12:42.060 will go to India, 50% will go to Bangladesh. 00:12:42.060 --> 00:12:44.937 If it's between 70,000 to 75,000, 00:12:44.937 --> 00:12:46.770 India will maintain the balance of the flow, 00:12:46.770 --> 00:12:50.910 and the Bangladesh will have remaining a 35,000 cusecs. 00:12:50.910 --> 00:12:55.530 And 75,000 or more, when there is water availability, 00:12:55.530 --> 00:12:58.042 40,000 cusecs will go to India, and Bangladesh will 00:12:58.042 --> 00:12:59.250 maintain balance of the flow. 00:12:59.250 --> 00:13:03.840 So that was the very basic and the very minimum of the water 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:06.060 sharing treaty between Bangladesh and India. 00:13:06.060 --> 00:13:08.870 So what are the real scenario? 00:13:08.870 --> 00:13:10.910 I mean, this is the treaty that we have got. 00:13:10.910 --> 00:13:12.510 But what is the real scenario? 00:13:12.510 --> 00:13:14.780 So here, we can see the real scenario, 00:13:14.780 --> 00:13:17.210 that Bangladesh has been frequently deprived 00:13:17.210 --> 00:13:19.940 of its minimum share during the most critical periods 00:13:19.940 --> 00:13:20.960 of the dry season. 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:24.560 And this has caused the loss of agricultural land, 00:13:24.560 --> 00:13:26.090 created problem in salination. 00:13:26.090 --> 00:13:28.010 The wellness of the people has decreased. 00:13:28.010 --> 00:13:30.890 And it has created such a huge issue, 00:13:30.890 --> 00:13:33.050 that in every election that Bangladesh happens, 00:13:33.050 --> 00:13:34.730 this repeatedly comes. 00:13:34.730 --> 00:13:38.030 And during the March 21 to 31, the 10-day cycle, 00:13:38.030 --> 00:13:41.720 in the year 2010, the actual release to Bangladesh 00:13:41.720 --> 00:13:44.390 was 44% lower than the indicated release. 00:13:44.390 --> 00:13:49.550 And in 2016, the situation became even worse. 00:13:49.550 --> 00:13:51.950 The actual release during March 21 to 31 00:13:51.950 --> 00:13:54.830 was 47% lower than the indicated share, 00:13:54.830 --> 00:13:57.560 followed by a further 34% and 49% 00:13:57.560 --> 00:14:00.110 decrease of flows during the other alternate political 00:14:00.110 --> 00:14:00.960 periods. 00:14:00.960 --> 00:14:05.570 So we can see that whatever that is written there in the treaty, 00:14:05.570 --> 00:14:07.430 unfortunately, this is not. 00:14:07.430 --> 00:14:09.930 The real scenario is very, very different, 00:14:09.930 --> 00:14:13.010 which is why, I mean, we have to look into these issues 00:14:13.010 --> 00:14:13.653 very seriously. 00:14:13.653 --> 00:14:14.570 And we have to decide. 00:14:14.570 --> 00:14:18.170 Because this is going to end in 2025. 00:14:18.170 --> 00:14:19.220 This is 2021. 00:14:19.220 --> 00:14:23.658 And if it is not renewed, a very different scenario 00:14:23.658 --> 00:14:24.200 might happen. 00:14:24.200 --> 00:14:25.783 We don't know what is going to happen. 00:14:25.783 --> 00:14:27.410 But now is actually the perfect time 00:14:27.410 --> 00:14:29.580 to think about this particular scenario 00:14:29.580 --> 00:14:32.360 and think of different possibilities, 00:14:32.360 --> 00:14:36.140 especially from the conflict resolution point of view. 00:14:36.140 --> 00:14:39.500 And what are the problems with the treaty that we can see? 00:14:39.500 --> 00:14:42.380 That it underestimated the impact of climate variability, 00:14:42.380 --> 00:14:44.220 the frequency of low flow events, 00:14:44.220 --> 00:14:46.670 and increased water restrictions upstream. 00:14:46.670 --> 00:14:49.310 And the future climate change and higher upstream water 00:14:49.310 --> 00:14:50.690 demands were not predicted. 00:14:50.690 --> 00:14:52.700 And also, in several locations, neither 00:14:52.700 --> 00:14:55.040 Bangladesh-- this is very interesting. 00:14:55.040 --> 00:14:58.790 I was speaking about the problem that Bangladesh is facing, 00:14:58.790 --> 00:15:02.150 but a few articles actually indicated 00:15:02.150 --> 00:15:04.070 that the treaty was made in such a way that, 00:15:04.070 --> 00:15:05.600 in several occasions-- 00:15:05.600 --> 00:15:08.000 not only once, not only twice, but several occasions-- 00:15:08.000 --> 00:15:11.090 neither Bangladesh nor India was able to receive 00:15:11.090 --> 00:15:15.260 their respective shares as stipulated in the treaty. 00:15:15.260 --> 00:15:20.820 And some other problems that we can discuss with the treaty 00:15:20.820 --> 00:15:23.460 is that Bangladesh frequently did not receive its fair share 00:15:23.460 --> 00:15:26.160 during the most critical periods of the dry season, when 00:15:26.160 --> 00:15:29.310 water demand is relatively high in both countries. 00:15:29.310 --> 00:15:34.180 And there was no guarantee clause for Bangladesh, 00:15:34.180 --> 00:15:35.820 which would ensure that-- 00:15:35.820 --> 00:15:37.530 I mean, although there is treaty. 00:15:37.530 --> 00:15:40.860 But if Bangladesh does not get, there 00:15:40.860 --> 00:15:43.810 is no guarantee that is ensured for Bangladesh. 00:15:43.810 --> 00:15:45.570 So that became another major problem. 00:15:45.570 --> 00:15:48.040 And the opponents of the current government, they 00:15:48.040 --> 00:15:51.120 used to say things like there is no guarantee, which 00:15:51.120 --> 00:15:52.980 means this is just a show-off, which 00:15:52.980 --> 00:15:56.020 also created huge political turmoil in Bangladesh scenario. 00:15:56.020 --> 00:15:59.430 And it is evident that the advanced hydrological models 00:15:59.430 --> 00:16:08.430 were not used, because if advanced hydrological models 00:16:08.430 --> 00:16:10.950 were used, the prediction would not 00:16:10.950 --> 00:16:12.885 be creating so much trouble. 00:16:15.745 --> 00:16:18.840 If there was deliberate error, then maybe one side 00:16:18.840 --> 00:16:22.080 would be benefited, and one side would not be benefited. 00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:26.250 But unfortunately, the standard was set in such a way, 00:16:26.250 --> 00:16:28.595 it shows that none of the countries, several times, 00:16:28.595 --> 00:16:29.970 do not get what they are supposed 00:16:29.970 --> 00:16:31.262 to get according to the treaty. 00:16:31.262 --> 00:16:33.750 So some of the authors, like [INAUDIBLE],, 00:16:33.750 --> 00:16:37.500 he actually questioned the hydrological models 00:16:37.500 --> 00:16:40.170 that has been used to deal with the treaty. 00:16:40.170 --> 00:16:42.780 And he also claimed that the advanced models were not 00:16:42.780 --> 00:16:45.810 used, which is why the treaty is in the pen and paper. 00:16:45.810 --> 00:16:51.150 But in reality, the quantitative distribution of water 00:16:51.150 --> 00:16:54.090 has not take place properly. 00:16:54.090 --> 00:16:56.840 So this is, we can see, there are 00:16:56.840 --> 00:17:01.040 some picture-- two pictures, actually, that I picked, 00:17:01.040 --> 00:17:03.240 what happened during the dry season. 00:17:03.240 --> 00:17:07.069 So Bangladesh is a country, which 00:17:07.069 --> 00:17:10.670 used to be full of blessings from the nature, a lot of-- 00:17:10.670 --> 00:17:13.250 I mean, you wouldn't see dry lands very often. 00:17:13.250 --> 00:17:16.560 But after this barrage actually happened 00:17:16.560 --> 00:17:18.770 and during the dry season, this actually happened. 00:17:18.770 --> 00:17:24.230 And what happened is the poor farmers, I mean, many of them 00:17:24.230 --> 00:17:26.420 actually lost their lands. 00:17:26.420 --> 00:17:27.380 And they had to-- 00:17:27.380 --> 00:17:29.360 I mean, some of them actually-- there 00:17:29.360 --> 00:17:32.203 has been cases that some of them could not even survive. 00:17:32.203 --> 00:17:33.620 Physically, they couldn't survive. 00:17:33.620 --> 00:17:36.800 And many of them in those areas, they left their lands. 00:17:36.800 --> 00:17:38.930 And they came to the capital city, 00:17:38.930 --> 00:17:41.030 which is why, after they came to the capital city, 00:17:41.030 --> 00:17:42.710 they didn't do anything but agriculture. 00:17:42.710 --> 00:17:44.210 But they started to find a job. 00:17:44.210 --> 00:17:45.140 They didn't find it. 00:17:45.140 --> 00:17:48.980 So they tried to do other things, which didn't work. 00:17:48.980 --> 00:17:52.010 And at one point, what happened that crime rate 00:17:52.010 --> 00:17:53.030 increased very high. 00:17:53.030 --> 00:17:56.030 Because these people, they cannot survive in their area. 00:17:56.030 --> 00:17:58.490 And they come to the capital city or the big cities. 00:17:58.490 --> 00:18:01.500 And they start a career in crime. 00:18:01.500 --> 00:18:05.780 So that is how actually, indirectly, even with the crime 00:18:05.780 --> 00:18:08.600 perspective, even the law enforcement perspective, 00:18:08.600 --> 00:18:11.590 this Farakka is actually affecting Bangladesh. 00:18:11.590 --> 00:18:16.550 So let's see the ground realities. 00:18:16.550 --> 00:18:20.480 So now that we will enter into the third part 00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:24.650 of our presentation, which is the water diplomacy part. 00:18:24.650 --> 00:18:27.440 So let us check out some of the ground realities. 00:18:27.440 --> 00:18:31.100 First of all, I mean, India has economic, political, 00:18:31.100 --> 00:18:33.020 geographical, and military advantage. 00:18:33.020 --> 00:18:37.720 And not only that, it has been very few-- 00:18:37.720 --> 00:18:40.390 I mean, for last almost 15 years, 00:18:40.390 --> 00:18:43.030 the present government is in power. 00:18:43.030 --> 00:18:45.580 And they have very strong tie with Indians. 00:18:45.580 --> 00:18:49.130 And many of the political experts, 00:18:49.130 --> 00:18:52.030 they say that without India's support and backing, 00:18:52.030 --> 00:18:53.950 this government wouldn't probably survive. 00:18:53.950 --> 00:18:55.450 So some of the political scientists, 00:18:55.450 --> 00:18:58.460 they actually come up with that sort of analysis. 00:18:58.460 --> 00:19:00.828 So I mean, whether this is true or false, 00:19:00.828 --> 00:19:01.870 that is a separate issue. 00:19:01.870 --> 00:19:08.410 But one thing that is clear, that a huge, huge population, 00:19:08.410 --> 00:19:11.510 a major population group, they actually believe this. 00:19:11.510 --> 00:19:14.140 And once they believe this, they automatically 00:19:14.140 --> 00:19:16.180 have the anti-India sentiment. 00:19:16.180 --> 00:19:20.170 And India, by cashing out on this sentiment, even 00:19:20.170 --> 00:19:22.120 the political leaders, they also get paranoid. 00:19:22.120 --> 00:19:25.240 They also think that if we try to take any decision that 00:19:25.240 --> 00:19:27.610 does not directly go in favor of India, 00:19:27.610 --> 00:19:31.630 maybe India will try to pressure the Bangladesh politics, 00:19:31.630 --> 00:19:35.290 and the Bangladeshi political leaders will lose their seat. 00:19:35.290 --> 00:19:40.320 So with this fear, very, very little instance 00:19:40.320 --> 00:19:42.540 up there that Bangladesh actually confronted India. 00:19:42.540 --> 00:19:44.250 And I'm sure that this situation is not 00:19:44.250 --> 00:19:46.210 uncommon in other parts of the world. 00:19:46.210 --> 00:19:52.020 So also, like in 1971, India was directly 00:19:52.020 --> 00:19:54.240 supporting Bangladesh to become independent. 00:19:54.240 --> 00:19:56.610 Their soldiers actually died with our freedom fighters. 00:19:56.610 --> 00:19:59.910 So what happened that when the war ended, 00:19:59.910 --> 00:20:04.050 immediately, there was a joint commission initiated. 00:20:04.050 --> 00:20:07.170 But it is very unlikely that that sort 00:20:07.170 --> 00:20:09.840 of warmth of relationship between the two countries 00:20:09.840 --> 00:20:12.220 is going to come back in the near future. 00:20:12.220 --> 00:20:14.620 And even there is a strong political will, 00:20:14.620 --> 00:20:17.790 there is animosity, both from Bangladesh side 00:20:17.790 --> 00:20:18.930 and the Indian side. 00:20:18.930 --> 00:20:21.810 And as I say that there is very strong anti-Indian sentiment 00:20:21.810 --> 00:20:23.400 currently living in Bangladesh. 00:20:23.400 --> 00:20:26.400 And these feelings is mutual due to the political scenario 00:20:26.400 --> 00:20:27.960 both in India and in Bangladesh. 00:20:27.960 --> 00:20:30.960 The present government in India, they try to-- 00:20:30.960 --> 00:20:32.370 they are a populist government. 00:20:32.370 --> 00:20:35.040 And there is us versus them-- this sentiment 00:20:35.040 --> 00:20:37.673 is being very much played in India, and also in Bangladesh. 00:20:37.673 --> 00:20:39.090 So these are the ground realities. 00:20:39.090 --> 00:20:40.507 So what are the things that we can 00:20:40.507 --> 00:20:45.570 do that I'm trying to portray? 00:20:45.570 --> 00:20:48.800 The first water diplomacy approach that I try to find 00:20:48.800 --> 00:20:50.420 is finding common grounds. 00:20:50.420 --> 00:20:53.090 What are the common grounds that we can say? 00:20:53.090 --> 00:20:55.130 Because Bangladesh actually stand no chance 00:20:55.130 --> 00:20:57.380 by confronting India, saying that you have to give us. 00:20:57.380 --> 00:20:59.510 India will just say that well, we won't give you. 00:20:59.510 --> 00:21:00.810 Do whatever you want. 00:21:00.810 --> 00:21:03.660 So here, this International Water Management Institute. 00:21:03.660 --> 00:21:07.530 So from there, I actually brought this. 00:21:07.530 --> 00:21:09.950 And so these are the issues that we can see, 00:21:09.950 --> 00:21:13.460 that low-dry season freshwater flow, the increasing siltation, 00:21:13.460 --> 00:21:15.560 accumulation of sediments, water resources 00:21:15.560 --> 00:21:17.870 along the areas of the river basins are depleting. 00:21:17.870 --> 00:21:19.550 The small rivers and the distributor 00:21:19.550 --> 00:21:22.760 is getting dried and disconnected, reduced length 00:21:22.760 --> 00:21:25.010 of waterways used for links and navigation, 00:21:25.010 --> 00:21:29.390 and riverbed erosion, formation of dry lands, 00:21:29.390 --> 00:21:31.260 and the socioeconomic vulnerabilities. 00:21:31.260 --> 00:21:32.870 So the problems that has been there-- 00:21:32.870 --> 00:21:36.530 Goral is actually a variant of the Ganges River, 00:21:36.530 --> 00:21:39.050 on the middle side of the Bangladesh. 00:21:39.050 --> 00:21:41.540 And Hooghly-Bhagirathi River is in the West Bengal, 00:21:41.540 --> 00:21:42.410 another river. 00:21:42.410 --> 00:21:46.460 So these common issues that is actually there 00:21:46.460 --> 00:21:48.090 both between India and Bangladesh. 00:21:48.090 --> 00:21:50.210 So the joint water commission that we have, 00:21:50.210 --> 00:21:53.000 and in our water diplomacy syllabus, 00:21:53.000 --> 00:21:55.460 what we have studied in various times, 00:21:55.460 --> 00:21:59.060 that an emphasis on joint protocol and finding 00:21:59.060 --> 00:22:01.940 the common ground, and finding the common challenges 00:22:01.940 --> 00:22:03.960 is very much stressed in water diplomacy. 00:22:03.960 --> 00:22:05.750 So I think these are the issues that 00:22:05.750 --> 00:22:08.000 happens both for India and Bangladesh 00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:15.060 during the dry seasons in West Bengal and in Bangladesh. 00:22:15.060 --> 00:22:18.620 So these are the things that both the parties can discuss. 00:22:18.620 --> 00:22:21.860 And they can try to share some common ground, which 00:22:21.860 --> 00:22:22.610 can be exploited. 00:22:22.610 --> 00:22:27.350 And that is how the treaty can be upgraded. 00:22:27.350 --> 00:22:31.040 So another modern diplomacy approach 00:22:31.040 --> 00:22:34.310 is indicating India's own problems with Farakka. 00:22:34.310 --> 00:22:38.210 This is a 2017 newspaper article with some references. 00:22:38.210 --> 00:22:40.490 So there is this Indian chief engineer. 00:22:40.490 --> 00:22:45.020 He actually discussed when this plan was happening in 1961. 00:22:45.020 --> 00:22:50.160 So he actually pointed out some various problems, 00:22:50.160 --> 00:22:52.920 for example, the drought and the climate change. 00:22:52.920 --> 00:22:55.820 These are the things he actually pointed out 00:22:55.820 --> 00:22:56.900 to the Indian government. 00:22:56.900 --> 00:22:58.970 He's a Bengali guy, Krishna Bhattacharya. 00:22:58.970 --> 00:23:01.520 So he actually pointed out those problems. 00:23:01.520 --> 00:23:04.040 But back then, his career took-- 00:23:04.040 --> 00:23:06.560 he was a chief engineer on the West Bengal side 00:23:06.560 --> 00:23:08.250 when this Farakka Dam was happening. 00:23:08.250 --> 00:23:10.472 And when he indicated those problems, 00:23:10.472 --> 00:23:12.180 for example, the different parts of Patna 00:23:12.180 --> 00:23:15.110 into and for other districts in Bihar, the flooding, 00:23:15.110 --> 00:23:17.720 the drought, and the change of biodiversity, 00:23:17.720 --> 00:23:19.400 and the salinity issues. 00:23:19.400 --> 00:23:22.430 And also, the annual silt dredging in Kolkata port 00:23:22.430 --> 00:23:28.550 quadrupled from 6.4 million cubic meter to 21.88 million 00:23:28.550 --> 00:23:29.930 cubic meter till 2003. 00:23:29.930 --> 00:23:31.880 So this sort of things happened. 00:23:31.880 --> 00:23:33.570 And these were actually predicted. 00:23:33.570 --> 00:23:37.430 So this problem, not only it's from an academic report. 00:23:37.430 --> 00:23:42.770 This was so serious that Bihar, in the Bihar area, 00:23:42.770 --> 00:23:44.450 some very influential politicians-- 00:23:44.450 --> 00:23:46.520 the chief ministers-- and they actually 00:23:46.520 --> 00:23:49.010 say the central government that why don't you, I mean, 00:23:49.010 --> 00:23:50.600 demolish the Farakka Dam? 00:23:50.600 --> 00:23:53.810 So the way Bangladesh wants a solution for this Farakka 00:23:53.810 --> 00:23:56.630 problem, even some parts of India 00:23:56.630 --> 00:23:58.290 there actually wants the same. 00:23:58.290 --> 00:24:00.650 So when there would be a discussion, maybe, 00:24:00.650 --> 00:24:03.770 from Bangladesh's perspective, this India's own interest 00:24:03.770 --> 00:24:09.400 can be exploited and come to a middle ground. 00:24:09.400 --> 00:24:11.950 And this is something which Bangladesh repeatedly 00:24:11.950 --> 00:24:14.290 failed at, India became repeatedly successful. 00:24:14.290 --> 00:24:23.530 Bangladesh, after the 1982, when another party, 00:24:23.530 --> 00:24:26.500 which is historically considered as anti-India, 00:24:26.500 --> 00:24:29.650 they came to power, they tried to internationalize the Farakka 00:24:29.650 --> 00:24:30.400 situation. 00:24:30.400 --> 00:24:31.600 They tried to-- 00:24:31.600 --> 00:24:35.170 I mean, the SAARC was built. And then this issue was taken. 00:24:35.170 --> 00:24:38.600 But India was actually stressing that this is a bilateral issue. 00:24:38.600 --> 00:24:40.330 But if you look at the basin, you 00:24:40.330 --> 00:24:43.450 will see that there is China, Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. 00:24:43.450 --> 00:24:45.460 Well, Bhutan and Nepal, their case 00:24:45.460 --> 00:24:46.720 is exactly like Bangladesh. 00:24:46.720 --> 00:24:50.130 But the surprising new scenario is 00:24:50.130 --> 00:24:54.370 that, now that China has global aspirations, China more 00:24:54.370 --> 00:24:57.323 than once, they came out with the Teesta river-- 00:24:57.323 --> 00:24:59.740 which is another river in the northern part of Bangladesh. 00:24:59.740 --> 00:25:01.960 They came up with the proposal that we would help you 00:25:01.960 --> 00:25:03.610 with the technology and the money 00:25:03.610 --> 00:25:06.040 so that you can build another bridge on another side. 00:25:06.040 --> 00:25:11.470 So this became another bargaining chip for Bangladesh, 00:25:11.470 --> 00:25:19.770 that using the China factor and building an international-- 00:25:19.770 --> 00:25:21.520 the Joint Commission can be international. 00:25:21.520 --> 00:25:22.930 It needs not to be bilateral. 00:25:22.930 --> 00:25:24.850 It can be international, bringing China, 00:25:24.850 --> 00:25:28.133 since China is actually trying to provide Bangladesh 00:25:28.133 --> 00:25:29.050 with some new options. 00:25:29.050 --> 00:25:32.410 And they are actually saying that China's water weapon, that 00:25:32.410 --> 00:25:36.020 is the word they have used. 00:25:36.020 --> 00:25:42.450 But this is a concept that I've borrowed from the [INAUDIBLE] 00:25:42.450 --> 00:25:43.460 class. 00:25:43.460 --> 00:25:45.260 They're bringing other bargaining chips 00:25:45.260 --> 00:25:47.810 that is not usually considered. 00:25:47.810 --> 00:25:50.600 For example, this is Bangladesh. 00:25:50.600 --> 00:25:53.150 On the left side, the West Bengal is there. 00:25:53.150 --> 00:25:54.800 You can see the Jharkhand, Bihar. 00:25:54.800 --> 00:25:56.210 And this is Nepal, Bhutan. 00:25:56.210 --> 00:25:57.350 This is Bangladesh. 00:25:57.350 --> 00:26:00.920 And you see a huge part of India is actually there. 00:26:00.920 --> 00:26:04.910 And the majority of the border is with Bangladesh. 00:26:04.910 --> 00:26:07.640 And there is, I mean, sentiment-- 00:26:07.640 --> 00:26:11.408 there is strong sentiment against the central Indian 00:26:11.408 --> 00:26:12.950 government, because it is very much-- 00:26:12.950 --> 00:26:14.660 I mean, it is called the Seven Sisters. 00:26:14.660 --> 00:26:18.020 And the Seven Sisters, well, this 00:26:18.020 --> 00:26:20.360 is far from the central government, which is 00:26:20.360 --> 00:26:22.220 why the control is very much-- 00:26:22.220 --> 00:26:25.730 I mean, not as strong as Delhi or the nearby states. 00:26:25.730 --> 00:26:29.270 And many of these states, they actually want independence 00:26:29.270 --> 00:26:33.530 of their own, which is why, even when, 00:26:33.530 --> 00:26:36.287 at present, Bangladesh and India has a very strong tie because 00:26:36.287 --> 00:26:37.370 of the historical reasons. 00:26:37.370 --> 00:26:40.130 The present prime minister, when his whole family 00:26:40.130 --> 00:26:43.430 was killed, for six years, he actually 00:26:43.430 --> 00:26:44.970 lived under the Indian protection. 00:26:44.970 --> 00:26:47.420 So it is considered that she would probably never go 00:26:47.420 --> 00:26:49.490 against the interests of India. 00:26:49.490 --> 00:26:53.120 But when anti-Indian sentiment comes 00:26:53.120 --> 00:26:55.280 with a new political party, there 00:26:55.280 --> 00:26:58.130 is always threat that this part of India 00:26:58.130 --> 00:26:59.450 would be very much tumultuous. 00:26:59.450 --> 00:27:00.590 There will be terrorism. 00:27:00.590 --> 00:27:03.860 And many of the terrorist leaders, 00:27:03.860 --> 00:27:07.040 many of the nationalist leaders of those parties, 00:27:07.040 --> 00:27:08.180 they actually-- 00:27:08.180 --> 00:27:10.130 I mean, they used to operate from Bangladesh. 00:27:10.130 --> 00:27:12.200 And one famous incident that I can 00:27:12.200 --> 00:27:19.160 say that in 2004, a 10-truck load of most 00:27:19.160 --> 00:27:22.100 advanced military weapons were passing towards Bangladesh. 00:27:22.100 --> 00:27:25.430 But it was a fluke that it was caught. 00:27:25.430 --> 00:27:26.930 So it became a huge case. 00:27:26.930 --> 00:27:30.270 So I mean, it can be a huge trouble for India. 00:27:30.270 --> 00:27:32.870 So this particular issue can actually 00:27:32.870 --> 00:27:34.430 be brought in the negotiation table, 00:27:34.430 --> 00:27:38.450 by saying that well, we will provide you 00:27:38.450 --> 00:27:40.070 full support with safety and security 00:27:40.070 --> 00:27:42.260 of the Seven Sister's part. 00:27:42.260 --> 00:27:45.650 In exchange, maybe we can discuss about the sharing 00:27:45.650 --> 00:27:46.970 of the water treaty. 00:27:46.970 --> 00:27:52.580 So this is one bargaining chip, which I think can be exploited. 00:27:52.580 --> 00:27:55.040 I try to check the literature. 00:27:55.040 --> 00:27:57.260 But so far, I haven't seen that Bangladesh 00:27:57.260 --> 00:27:59.490 has went through that path. 00:27:59.490 --> 00:28:03.060 And another chip can be-- 00:28:03.060 --> 00:28:05.330 there are some articles from the Indian sides. 00:28:05.330 --> 00:28:07.700 They actually claim that the Bengal-- 00:28:07.700 --> 00:28:09.110 Bengal means the West Bengal-- 00:28:09.110 --> 00:28:10.190 they need Teesta. 00:28:10.190 --> 00:28:12.260 And the Teesta, we have a barrage in Teesta. 00:28:12.260 --> 00:28:13.910 We have a dam in Teesta. 00:28:13.910 --> 00:28:16.790 And still, there has been many talks. 00:28:16.790 --> 00:28:18.440 But so far, there has been no treaty. 00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:20.900 So I mean, although we are speaking 00:28:20.900 --> 00:28:23.090 about the advancement of Ganges treaty, 00:28:23.090 --> 00:28:26.960 double relations Ganges treaty, maybe the Teesta River, 00:28:26.960 --> 00:28:29.960 to get some advantage in Ganges river treaty, 00:28:29.960 --> 00:28:33.060 Bangladesh actually can think of discussing with India 00:28:33.060 --> 00:28:37.070 whether they can bring this Teesta river 00:28:37.070 --> 00:28:38.120 treaty with them as well. 00:28:38.120 --> 00:28:41.090 Teesta is very sensitive, because Teesta is actually-- 00:28:41.090 --> 00:28:44.240 it has originated in Sikkim, which is very close to China. 00:28:44.240 --> 00:28:46.970 And this is the Teesta River, especially 00:28:46.970 --> 00:28:50.540 for which the Chinese actually offered Bangladesh 00:28:50.540 --> 00:28:53.755 technical support to bring for the dams, and by doing that, 00:28:53.755 --> 00:28:55.130 changing the course of the river. 00:28:55.130 --> 00:28:57.320 So it became a very serious issue 00:28:57.320 --> 00:28:58.550 between Bangladesh and India. 00:28:58.550 --> 00:29:01.590 And the diplomatic talks are still going on. 00:29:01.590 --> 00:29:03.770 So these are actually the steps that we 00:29:03.770 --> 00:29:07.250 can think of using as the bargaining chip 00:29:07.250 --> 00:29:10.310 so that a new joint commission can be made. 00:29:10.310 --> 00:29:15.620 And the things like climate change and the other problems, 00:29:15.620 --> 00:29:19.370 which was not considered in 1996, can be considered now. 00:29:19.370 --> 00:29:24.890 Because in almost 30 years, the technology has changed, 00:29:24.890 --> 00:29:27.035 the GPS has come, and many other-- 00:29:27.035 --> 00:29:28.770 the scientific scenario has changed. 00:29:28.770 --> 00:29:32.810 So maybe, by bringing all these things together, 00:29:32.810 --> 00:29:34.490 a better solution can be saved. 00:29:34.490 --> 00:29:40.070 And before I finish with all the criticisms, 00:29:40.070 --> 00:29:41.690 I would actually again say that-- 00:29:41.690 --> 00:29:45.410 which I did feel and I also read from the [INAUDIBLE] article, 00:29:45.410 --> 00:29:50.570 that this Ganges water treaty is probably-- 00:29:50.570 --> 00:29:51.560 it is not perfect. 00:29:51.560 --> 00:29:53.300 It is definitely not perfect. 00:29:53.300 --> 00:29:56.390 But if it was not there, the situation 00:29:56.390 --> 00:29:59.490 for both the countries would probably worse. 00:29:59.490 --> 00:30:01.550 So the treaty should be there. 00:30:01.550 --> 00:30:04.940 And we should try our best to-- 00:30:04.940 --> 00:30:05.960 we have four years. 00:30:05.960 --> 00:30:08.360 Maybe we can try our best to think 00:30:08.360 --> 00:30:12.830 of the advancement of that treaty 00:30:12.830 --> 00:30:16.430 and also addressing the limitations 00:30:16.430 --> 00:30:17.700 that we are currently facing. 00:30:17.700 --> 00:30:18.810 Thank you very much. 00:30:18.810 --> 00:30:21.102 If you have any comments and if you have any questions, 00:30:21.102 --> 00:30:22.470 I would like to answer them. 00:30:22.470 --> 00:30:25.270 Thank you very much. 00:30:25.270 --> 00:30:28.730 DR. GAIN: Thank you, Mashroof, for the nice presentation. 00:30:28.730 --> 00:30:34.060 So now, I would like to ask others to make comments, 00:30:34.060 --> 00:30:36.160 like Aaron and Gemma. 00:30:36.160 --> 00:30:38.200 Do you have any comments or feedback? 00:30:41.888 --> 00:30:43.930 AUDIENCE: Thank you, Mashroof, for a really great 00:30:43.930 --> 00:30:44.690 presentation. 00:30:44.690 --> 00:30:46.910 I learned a lot. 00:30:46.910 --> 00:30:50.500 I really appreciated how much geographic and geopolitical 00:30:50.500 --> 00:30:51.880 context you brought in. 00:30:51.880 --> 00:30:54.790 I thought that was really helpful. 00:30:54.790 --> 00:30:58.517 And I really liked the back third 00:30:58.517 --> 00:31:00.100 of your presentation, where you really 00:31:00.100 --> 00:31:04.270 kind of thought through all of the water diplomacy framework 00:31:04.270 --> 00:31:05.950 elements. 00:31:05.950 --> 00:31:07.300 So yeah, great job. 00:31:07.300 --> 00:31:11.260 I think my feedback, as you're thinking about writing 00:31:11.260 --> 00:31:15.090 your paper, would be-- 00:31:15.090 --> 00:31:20.190 I was a little confused at times about how the treaty has failed 00:31:20.190 --> 00:31:27.210 to be implemented, thinking about most specifically around 00:31:27.210 --> 00:31:30.600 how neither country is able to receive 00:31:30.600 --> 00:31:33.150 their respective share as it was stipulated in the treaty. 00:31:33.150 --> 00:31:34.800 Is that a technical problem? 00:31:34.800 --> 00:31:38.010 Is that a diplomatic problem? 00:31:38.010 --> 00:31:41.700 I think you could maybe identify where the specific limitations 00:31:41.700 --> 00:31:43.920 or weaknesses of the treaty are and in terms 00:31:43.920 --> 00:31:48.870 of how that actually is manifested on the ground. 00:31:48.870 --> 00:31:51.978 So that's one thing to keep in mind. 00:31:51.978 --> 00:31:54.270 Yeah, I don't know if you could talk about that at all. 00:31:54.270 --> 00:31:58.980 Are there technical flaws or political flaws that 00:31:58.980 --> 00:32:01.080 might be helpful to understand? 00:32:01.080 --> 00:32:03.540 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Well, the technical flaws-- 00:32:03.540 --> 00:32:06.720 I actually accept my limitations. 00:32:06.720 --> 00:32:08.040 I'm not really a technical guy. 00:32:08.040 --> 00:32:11.190 I try to read some technical papers. 00:32:11.190 --> 00:32:14.610 I actually read one of Professor Animesh's paper, 00:32:14.610 --> 00:32:16.500 which gave me some insight. 00:32:16.500 --> 00:32:19.170 So the one technical paper that I read, 00:32:19.170 --> 00:32:24.870 they say that in last two decades, 00:32:24.870 --> 00:32:32.940 almost last two decades, very few papers or very few research 00:32:32.940 --> 00:32:39.420 has been done to actually trying to quantify the amount of water 00:32:39.420 --> 00:32:40.480 that has been there. 00:32:40.480 --> 00:32:42.390 One of the reasons was there that initially, 00:32:42.390 --> 00:32:44.410 the historical data was not there, for example, 00:32:44.410 --> 00:32:45.900 in first five years, probably-- 00:32:45.900 --> 00:32:47.340 I mean, first one or two years-- 00:32:47.340 --> 00:32:49.470 the type of precision that you need 00:32:49.470 --> 00:32:53.970 to get to predict that what is going 00:32:53.970 --> 00:32:55.440 to happen through the history. 00:32:55.440 --> 00:32:57.120 Now that we have it, fortunately, 00:32:57.120 --> 00:33:01.590 because it has been quite long, so the research has already 00:33:01.590 --> 00:33:02.120 started. 00:33:02.120 --> 00:33:04.200 So maybe I will try to put that. 00:33:04.200 --> 00:33:10.420 And the diplomatic problems that we are say that-- 00:33:10.420 --> 00:33:13.810 one major problem that I can say, I mean, since this is-- 00:33:13.810 --> 00:33:16.480 I would never say this outside the classroom-- 00:33:16.480 --> 00:33:22.030 that for example, US, it has a national policy. 00:33:22.030 --> 00:33:26.740 The government changes, but the policy, the main theme 00:33:26.740 --> 00:33:28.060 of the policy, remains. 00:33:28.060 --> 00:33:29.743 Maybe some sides changes, but if you 00:33:29.743 --> 00:33:32.160 have to change the main theme of the policy-- for example, 00:33:32.160 --> 00:33:33.610 US has a defense policy. 00:33:33.610 --> 00:33:35.980 Right, US has a defense policy that we will do this, 00:33:35.980 --> 00:33:36.700 we will do that. 00:33:36.700 --> 00:33:39.460 How will we do that, maybe that can be discussed. 00:33:39.460 --> 00:33:43.520 And maybe different governments can do it in a different way. 00:33:43.520 --> 00:33:46.270 So in India, of course, Indian democracy 00:33:46.270 --> 00:33:48.760 is not as strong as the US or the UK. 00:33:48.760 --> 00:33:52.390 But in India, in some basic sectors, for example, 00:33:52.390 --> 00:33:55.990 the defense or whether they would share this or that, 00:33:55.990 --> 00:33:57.550 they also have some sort of policy. 00:33:57.550 --> 00:33:59.260 They also have some sort of strict policy 00:33:59.260 --> 00:34:02.470 that even though the political government changes, 00:34:02.470 --> 00:34:04.700 this doesn't change much. 00:34:04.700 --> 00:34:07.120 And they strongly uphold the Constitution. 00:34:07.120 --> 00:34:09.159 And one of the reasons is that there has not 00:34:09.159 --> 00:34:11.530 been, in the history of India, more than 60 years-- 00:34:11.530 --> 00:34:15.040 from '47 to 2021, more than 60 years-- 00:34:15.040 --> 00:34:17.530 no military takeover was there. 00:34:17.530 --> 00:34:20.050 And because India is so huge, military takeover 00:34:20.050 --> 00:34:21.969 is actually not very much feasible. 00:34:21.969 --> 00:34:25.659 But in Bangladesh, it's a country 50 years of age. 00:34:25.659 --> 00:34:30.489 Out of 50 years, more than 15 years there 00:34:30.489 --> 00:34:32.380 were military governments. 00:34:32.380 --> 00:34:34.875 And I would be very blunt here at present. 00:34:34.875 --> 00:34:37.929 We are also have some autocratic government. 00:34:37.929 --> 00:34:42.130 And the system has become such that, I mean, 00:34:42.130 --> 00:34:43.989 it is very tough for Bangladesh to come out 00:34:43.989 --> 00:34:44.822 from this political. 00:34:44.822 --> 00:34:46.719 So when you speak of diplomacy, we 00:34:46.719 --> 00:34:49.300 have some wonderful diplomats, really well-trained diplomats. 00:34:49.300 --> 00:34:52.510 But the decision actually comes from the politicians. 00:34:52.510 --> 00:34:53.600 I would not blame them. 00:34:53.600 --> 00:34:55.690 They definitely have their point of view. 00:34:55.690 --> 00:34:58.660 But due to this lack of political culture, 00:34:58.660 --> 00:35:01.510 of having a straight aim, I mean-- 00:35:01.510 --> 00:35:04.840 it is like, I mean, total one government comes, 00:35:04.840 --> 00:35:07.990 so for the five or 10 years, one policy was going. 00:35:07.990 --> 00:35:10.400 The government changes, it goes backwards. 00:35:10.400 --> 00:35:11.800 So it's zig-zag, zig-zag. 00:35:11.800 --> 00:35:15.160 So I mean, it is an issue. 00:35:15.160 --> 00:35:19.300 But thank you very much for the input, because I will 00:35:19.300 --> 00:35:21.390 try to address these things. 00:35:21.390 --> 00:35:24.460 Specifically, maybe I wouldn't be speaking too much 00:35:24.460 --> 00:35:27.220 about diplomacy, because I work for the government. 00:35:27.220 --> 00:35:29.110 And they read those papers. 00:35:29.110 --> 00:35:32.740 But the technical part, maybe I will seek help 00:35:32.740 --> 00:35:35.890 from Larry and Professor Gain to include 00:35:35.890 --> 00:35:37.970 more of the technical parts in my paper. 00:35:37.970 --> 00:35:40.190 Thank you very much. 00:35:40.190 --> 00:35:43.550 AUDIENCE: Hi, Mashroof, also I learned a huge amount 00:35:43.550 --> 00:35:45.710 in your presentation. 00:35:45.710 --> 00:35:47.270 The question I have-- and perhaps you 00:35:47.270 --> 00:35:50.300 addressed this somewhat-- but I would like to speak more to it. 00:35:50.300 --> 00:35:54.560 Maybe I missed it, but does the current treaty have-- 00:35:59.750 --> 00:36:02.720 how does it manage water measurement? 00:36:02.720 --> 00:36:05.780 And in the processes for actually determining 00:36:05.780 --> 00:36:07.970 how much water there is different times of year 00:36:07.970 --> 00:36:10.340 and how much water there is over time-- 00:36:10.340 --> 00:36:11.810 because you talked about the ways 00:36:11.810 --> 00:36:14.555 in which the amount of water has changed, 00:36:14.555 --> 00:36:16.580 partially as a result of droughts 00:36:16.580 --> 00:36:19.370 and the different pieces of infrastructure that 00:36:19.370 --> 00:36:20.570 have been built. 00:36:20.570 --> 00:36:27.710 But I'm interested in if there's any ongoing collaboration, 00:36:27.710 --> 00:36:32.450 or shared effort, or even individual kind 00:36:32.450 --> 00:36:37.880 of national efforts to quantify how the water, both quantity 00:36:37.880 --> 00:36:41.060 and quality, is changing over time. 00:36:41.060 --> 00:36:43.413 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Well, I do not know very details 00:36:43.413 --> 00:36:44.330 of the technicalities. 00:36:44.330 --> 00:36:46.560 But I can give you some very basics, 00:36:46.560 --> 00:36:48.420 which is there on the treaty. 00:36:48.420 --> 00:36:51.290 So the geography of the two regions 00:36:51.290 --> 00:36:56.100 is more or less the same, the West Bengal and Bangladesh. 00:36:56.100 --> 00:36:57.950 So although we are speaking of India, 00:36:57.950 --> 00:37:01.250 India is a very big country, right, so 28 states. 00:37:01.250 --> 00:37:06.080 But ultimately, Bangladesh shares with West Bengal, 00:37:06.080 --> 00:37:08.570 from where the Ganges River comes. 00:37:08.570 --> 00:37:13.430 So I mean, by studying Bangladesh 00:37:13.430 --> 00:37:17.090 or by studying West Bengal, a very basic idea 00:37:17.090 --> 00:37:19.170 actually can be found. 00:37:19.170 --> 00:37:21.920 For example, the dry season in Bangladesh, 00:37:21.920 --> 00:37:24.854 from January to May, it is same in West Bengal. 00:37:27.410 --> 00:37:30.160 And the wet season in Bangladesh, 00:37:30.160 --> 00:37:35.360 which falls up to December, so from July to December, that 00:37:35.360 --> 00:37:38.090 is also same in both the parties. 00:37:38.090 --> 00:37:41.930 So the joint committee, they probably 00:37:41.930 --> 00:37:46.880 used some hydraulic models to actually set 00:37:46.880 --> 00:37:48.560 the amount of water. 00:37:48.560 --> 00:37:54.260 For example, it is 70,000 cubics, the basic standard. 00:37:54.260 --> 00:38:02.171 The first one is if there is 70,000 cubic seconds-- 00:38:02.171 --> 00:38:05.690 the unit is cusec-- if 70,000 cusecs is there, 00:38:05.690 --> 00:38:09.450 both the countries will share 50-50%. 00:38:09.450 --> 00:38:11.600 So this is how they have made. 00:38:11.600 --> 00:38:15.140 And from 70% to 75%, so there would be-- 00:38:15.140 --> 00:38:17.510 the balanced ratio would be for India. 00:38:17.510 --> 00:38:20.810 And Bangladesh would get a minimum 34,000 cusecs. 00:38:20.810 --> 00:38:23.270 And if it's 75 to-- 00:38:23.270 --> 00:38:29.120 75 and above, then the same kind of ratio is there. 00:38:29.120 --> 00:38:31.193 So this much I know. 00:38:31.193 --> 00:38:32.360 AUDIENCE: Is there ongoing-- 00:38:32.360 --> 00:38:33.902 for example, you mentioned that there 00:38:33.902 --> 00:38:37.373 have been years in which neither side has gotten the amounts 00:38:37.373 --> 00:38:38.540 that they've been allocated. 00:38:38.540 --> 00:38:41.300 Have there been any ongoing efforts 00:38:41.300 --> 00:38:44.660 to know, if there's under 70,000, 00:38:44.660 --> 00:38:48.140 to quantify how much is flowing? 00:38:48.140 --> 00:38:48.920 And how? 00:38:48.920 --> 00:38:49.837 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Yes. 00:38:49.837 --> 00:38:52.490 I think that Bangladesh, we have an agency-- 00:38:52.490 --> 00:38:55.250 Bangladesh Inland Water Authority-- 00:38:55.250 --> 00:38:57.050 we have Bangladesh Water Development Board. 00:38:57.050 --> 00:39:00.110 So they actually conduct some scientific studies. 00:39:00.110 --> 00:39:04.580 And based on those, I will be honest with you 00:39:04.580 --> 00:39:07.250 that the government organizations-- 00:39:07.250 --> 00:39:11.460 I mean, for example, the scientists 00:39:11.460 --> 00:39:15.420 who have that expertise, the Bangladesh-- 00:39:15.420 --> 00:39:18.240 those organizations are not really the most lucrative jobs 00:39:18.240 --> 00:39:19.180 for them. 00:39:19.180 --> 00:39:20.520 So we do what we can. 00:39:20.520 --> 00:39:23.490 And sometimes, we bring foreign consultants. 00:39:23.490 --> 00:39:26.250 And with those, some studies are made. 00:39:26.250 --> 00:39:30.060 And based on that, actually, these sort of distributions 00:39:30.060 --> 00:39:30.690 are made. 00:39:30.690 --> 00:39:34.630 But then again, there are flaws in this study. 00:39:34.630 --> 00:39:38.280 DR. GAIN: Mashroof, I think in terms of measurement, 00:39:38.280 --> 00:39:41.670 the joint river commission is-- 00:39:41.670 --> 00:39:45.510 so there is joint collaboration between India and Bangladesh. 00:39:45.510 --> 00:39:49.290 The Joint River Commission is responsible for measuring 00:39:49.290 --> 00:39:49.790 the things. 00:39:49.790 --> 00:39:53.130 So in terms of theory, both the Indian side, 00:39:53.130 --> 00:39:54.575 there is a Joint River Commission. 00:39:54.575 --> 00:39:55.950 And in the Bangladesh side, there 00:39:55.950 --> 00:39:58.080 is Joint River Commission. 00:39:58.080 --> 00:40:01.920 So both parties, in terms of theory, 00:40:01.920 --> 00:40:03.900 theoretically, they measure. 00:40:03.900 --> 00:40:08.940 And in terms of dry season river, they measure the flow. 00:40:08.940 --> 00:40:10.990 And they agree on that. 00:40:10.990 --> 00:40:12.813 So I think in terms of agreement, 00:40:12.813 --> 00:40:14.230 they do have these kind of things. 00:40:14.230 --> 00:40:17.970 But in reality, this kind of collaboration, 00:40:17.970 --> 00:40:21.930 although that exists, but this kind of enforcement is-- they 00:40:21.930 --> 00:40:26.700 rely only on the Indian side, that maybe they don't regularly 00:40:26.700 --> 00:40:29.400 go to the Farakka point to measure the things. 00:40:29.400 --> 00:40:34.410 But I think the way that Indian Joint River Commission 00:40:34.410 --> 00:40:36.780 communicate to the Bangladesh Joint Commission, 00:40:36.780 --> 00:40:38.960 they agree on that kind of measurement. 00:40:38.960 --> 00:40:40.423 So that's the idea. 00:40:40.423 --> 00:40:42.840 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: I was actually looking for some articles 00:40:42.840 --> 00:40:46.500 whether the state water department-- 00:40:46.500 --> 00:40:49.890 I'm not sure that whether the Indian states have 00:40:49.890 --> 00:40:54.508 separate water departments or not, or whether it's federal. 00:40:54.508 --> 00:40:55.050 I'm not sure. 00:40:55.050 --> 00:40:57.090 So I'll try to find whether there 00:40:57.090 --> 00:41:00.550 is any collaboration between not only the state level, 00:41:00.550 --> 00:41:02.090 but also the-- 00:41:02.090 --> 00:41:06.600 not only the federal level, but also the West Bengal 00:41:06.600 --> 00:41:08.550 state and Bangladesh. 00:41:08.550 --> 00:41:12.270 But probably, I probably missed. 00:41:12.270 --> 00:41:17.080 I didn't find any such collaboration. 00:41:17.080 --> 00:41:18.970 DR. GAIN: So is there any other feedback 00:41:18.970 --> 00:41:24.946 that you would like to bring, like Anselmo or Hasnain? 00:41:28.980 --> 00:41:30.570 AUDIENCE: Mashroof, congratulation 00:41:30.570 --> 00:41:31.660 on the presentation. 00:41:31.660 --> 00:41:33.630 I learned a lot from you today. 00:41:33.630 --> 00:41:35.230 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much. 00:41:35.230 --> 00:41:37.147 AUDIENCE: Especially the visual was very rich, 00:41:37.147 --> 00:41:38.010 your presentation. 00:41:38.010 --> 00:41:39.570 I just have one quick suggestion, 00:41:39.570 --> 00:41:41.010 because you said that you are not 00:41:41.010 --> 00:41:43.380 going to mention a lot about the diplomacy 00:41:43.380 --> 00:41:46.050 because you are part of the government. 00:41:46.050 --> 00:41:48.615 But when you read the Larry's book, 00:41:48.615 --> 00:41:53.070 on the-- specific on the page 133, 00:41:53.070 --> 00:41:56.220 it mentions about the water management in the state 00:41:56.220 --> 00:41:59.700 hold the key approach to the conflict, 00:41:59.700 --> 00:42:01.620 using the traditional way. 00:42:01.620 --> 00:42:03.870 Or they can use the non-zero-sum approach. 00:42:03.870 --> 00:42:06.300 And I think that's very interesting, if you can 00:42:06.300 --> 00:42:08.282 include in your final paper. 00:42:08.282 --> 00:42:09.240 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Yeah. 00:42:09.240 --> 00:42:11.282 AUDIENCE: Specific when they talk about the water 00:42:11.282 --> 00:42:15.090 management, that's fall in two categories-- a higher 00:42:15.090 --> 00:42:18.420 authority can force a decision, or the other parties 00:42:18.420 --> 00:42:21.900 themselves can negotiate a settlement that formal talks 00:42:21.900 --> 00:42:23.370 helped to implement. 00:42:23.370 --> 00:42:25.950 I think this chapter is very interesting 00:42:25.950 --> 00:42:27.067 for your presentation. 00:42:27.067 --> 00:42:28.650 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much. 00:42:28.650 --> 00:42:30.942 I will look into that and I will try to incorporate it. 00:42:30.942 --> 00:42:33.390 AUDIENCE: It's on page 132, 133. 00:42:33.390 --> 00:42:36.060 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much. 00:42:36.060 --> 00:42:37.170 DR. GAIN: Yes. 00:42:37.170 --> 00:42:39.340 Yeah, Larry? 00:42:39.340 --> 00:42:41.890 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Thanks for the presentation. 00:42:41.890 --> 00:42:49.540 I'm hoping that you can synthesize the diplomacy 00:42:49.540 --> 00:42:53.720 discussion in the final version of the paper. 00:42:53.720 --> 00:43:01.960 And it would be wonderful if you had a one-page introduction 00:43:01.960 --> 00:43:08.080 to your discussion about diplomacy that highlighted 00:43:08.080 --> 00:43:18.420 two or three ideas about what new or different, with regard 00:43:18.420 --> 00:43:23.870 to diplomacy, that could be tried that hasn't been tried, 00:43:23.870 --> 00:43:27.290 without going into all the explanation 00:43:27.290 --> 00:43:31.340 in this summary of how this would be done, 00:43:31.340 --> 00:43:34.440 but to just highlight. 00:43:34.440 --> 00:43:36.510 You talking about bargaining chips, 00:43:36.510 --> 00:43:42.570 you're talking about linking other issues, it's a lot. 00:43:42.570 --> 00:43:46.510 Pick two or three things that you 00:43:46.510 --> 00:43:50.060 want to suggest that are new. 00:43:50.060 --> 00:43:53.180 And say, I think the focus should 00:43:53.180 --> 00:43:57.320 shift to involving all of the states 00:43:57.320 --> 00:44:01.360 and not just the national governments. 00:44:01.360 --> 00:44:02.020 OK? 00:44:02.020 --> 00:44:05.990 If that's one of your proposals, then 00:44:05.990 --> 00:44:13.930 state that as a new emphasis that 00:44:13.930 --> 00:44:16.780 might change the whole story. 00:44:16.780 --> 00:44:20.200 If you think, as Aaron was implying, 00:44:20.200 --> 00:44:25.600 that a new approach to joint measurement 00:44:25.600 --> 00:44:29.710 would provide timely and believable information 00:44:29.710 --> 00:44:34.180 in a different way, and that with that information, 00:44:34.180 --> 00:44:37.690 new joint management, under different sets 00:44:37.690 --> 00:44:41.680 of circumstances, would be improved even if the treaty 00:44:41.680 --> 00:44:46.810 isn't changed, then say that. 00:44:46.810 --> 00:44:50.890 But not more than two or three ideas 00:44:50.890 --> 00:44:53.740 that could be expressed in a couple of sentences 00:44:53.740 --> 00:45:00.190 as the contribution to your discussion about diplomacy. 00:45:00.190 --> 00:45:03.310 Because otherwise, it's too much. 00:45:03.310 --> 00:45:08.110 It's impossible to follow all the different lines 00:45:08.110 --> 00:45:11.560 of diplomacy that are implied by the different maps, 00:45:11.560 --> 00:45:13.090 and the different bargaining chips, 00:45:13.090 --> 00:45:17.680 and the different relationships, and what might be done. 00:45:17.680 --> 00:45:20.470 And it's just too much. 00:45:20.470 --> 00:45:28.430 Just choose two, no more than three, but even those two ideas 00:45:28.430 --> 00:45:35.000 about changed diplomacy and highlight those, OK? 00:45:35.000 --> 00:45:38.120 I know that you have lots of other stuff. 00:45:38.120 --> 00:45:41.420 I think for the paper, the power of the paper 00:45:41.420 --> 00:45:46.550 will be improved if you zero in on just a couple 00:45:46.550 --> 00:45:51.680 of ideas about changes in the diplomacy going forward that 00:45:51.680 --> 00:45:57.170 haven't been given enough or the right attention in the past. 00:45:57.170 --> 00:45:58.920 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Professor, in that case, 00:45:58.920 --> 00:46:05.510 maybe I will try to speak about the one point that I say. 00:46:05.510 --> 00:46:09.980 Maybe instead of three or two, I will just focus on one. 00:46:09.980 --> 00:46:15.800 That is the bargaining chips, the alternate bargaining chips. 00:46:15.800 --> 00:46:18.210 Maybe I can choose just this one and go deeper on that. 00:46:18.210 --> 00:46:18.960 What do you think? 00:46:18.960 --> 00:46:22.100 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I think that there are different bargaining 00:46:22.100 --> 00:46:26.360 chips that are more or less attractive to one 00:46:26.360 --> 00:46:28.280 country or another. 00:46:28.280 --> 00:46:32.360 And that instead of saying bargaining chips is one thing-- 00:46:32.360 --> 00:46:34.610 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: I would specify the bargaining chip. 00:46:34.610 --> 00:46:35.970 Pick one bargaining chip and go deeper on that. 00:46:35.970 --> 00:46:37.262 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Which ones? 00:46:37.262 --> 00:46:40.970 I mean, I thought the idea that you have all these states, 00:46:40.970 --> 00:46:44.900 they're not happy with their own national government, 00:46:44.900 --> 00:46:49.280 it's possible that a negotiation involving those states 00:46:49.280 --> 00:46:51.830 could change what gets talked about, 00:46:51.830 --> 00:46:54.980 and shift the balance of power, and provide 00:46:54.980 --> 00:47:00.200 an opportunity for sub-regional piece of the treaty 00:47:00.200 --> 00:47:01.520 to go ahead. 00:47:01.520 --> 00:47:03.800 So that's about bargaining chips. 00:47:03.800 --> 00:47:07.460 But it's about the involvement of sub-national units 00:47:07.460 --> 00:47:11.300 on the India side and why their involvement 00:47:11.300 --> 00:47:12.900 could make a difference. 00:47:12.900 --> 00:47:17.210 So I'm really saying, don't just talk 00:47:17.210 --> 00:47:20.600 about things at the level of bargaining chips. 00:47:20.600 --> 00:47:22.130 It's too broad. 00:47:22.130 --> 00:47:23.210 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Pick. 00:47:23.210 --> 00:47:26.360 AUDIENCE: Pick a couple of bargaining chips that you think 00:47:26.360 --> 00:47:30.500 are most promising and say who should do what 00:47:30.500 --> 00:47:33.290 with this new bargaining chip that 00:47:33.290 --> 00:47:36.170 might lead to either a new treaty, 00:47:36.170 --> 00:47:41.710 or better administration of the existing treaty, 00:47:41.710 --> 00:47:46.810 or a completely different kind of treaty. 00:47:46.810 --> 00:47:49.310 I mean, not-- keep the one you have. 00:47:49.310 --> 00:47:53.350 And in addition, adopt maybe a new treaty 00:47:53.350 --> 00:47:56.230 about this additional river. 00:47:56.230 --> 00:47:58.630 Maybe that's what opens things. 00:47:58.630 --> 00:48:01.540 But take specific bargaining chips 00:48:01.540 --> 00:48:04.270 and make them into your recommendations. 00:48:04.270 --> 00:48:05.110 OK? 00:48:05.110 --> 00:48:05.680 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: OK, professor. 00:48:05.680 --> 00:48:06.530 Thank you. 00:48:06.530 --> 00:48:09.580 DR. GAIN: Yeah, so in line with Larry's suggestion, 00:48:09.580 --> 00:48:12.040 so my suggestion would be-- 00:48:12.040 --> 00:48:17.050 so you mentioned only the state versus state diplomacy. 00:48:17.050 --> 00:48:24.310 But you know, the India's water resource responsibility 00:48:24.310 --> 00:48:26.110 is given to the state-- 00:48:26.110 --> 00:48:27.400 I mean, not federal state. 00:48:27.400 --> 00:48:33.430 So more most of the water power is given to the state-- 00:48:33.430 --> 00:48:36.850 I mean, West Bengal state has the power for managing water 00:48:36.850 --> 00:48:39.220 resources in the West Bengal. 00:48:39.220 --> 00:48:42.940 So the central government cannot intervene anything regarding 00:48:42.940 --> 00:48:46.770 the decision of the West Bengal's water resources 00:48:46.770 --> 00:48:47.270 issues. 00:48:47.270 --> 00:48:52.120 So in that case, one of the key stakeholders 00:48:52.120 --> 00:48:53.380 would be the West Bengal. 00:48:53.380 --> 00:48:58.630 And I mean, how the Teesta water treaty 00:48:58.630 --> 00:49:01.948 didn't work although the central government was-- 00:49:01.948 --> 00:49:02.990 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Agreed. 00:49:02.990 --> 00:49:05.073 DR. GAIN: --agreed with the Bangladesh government. 00:49:05.073 --> 00:49:09.630 But because of the West Bengal government, it didn't happen. 00:49:09.630 --> 00:49:15.040 So I think this, as Larry mentioned, we can incorporate, 00:49:15.040 --> 00:49:22.030 or you can incorporate the state as stakeholders. 00:49:22.030 --> 00:49:24.520 Maybe that can also important. 00:49:24.520 --> 00:49:26.950 And I think that is essential, not important, 00:49:26.950 --> 00:49:30.460 because without the state, you cannot negotiate with 00:49:30.460 --> 00:49:33.200 the central government. 00:49:33.200 --> 00:49:34.600 So this is on point. 00:49:34.600 --> 00:49:37.570 And in terms of identifying issues, 00:49:37.570 --> 00:49:42.550 already, if you ask some of the peoples, key peoples, 00:49:42.550 --> 00:49:45.670 then it would be easier for you. 00:49:45.670 --> 00:49:48.040 So you already identified several key issues. 00:49:48.040 --> 00:49:52.210 One of the issues is Bangladesh is concerned regarding 00:49:52.210 --> 00:49:55.930 the climate change and its impact on the future river 00:49:55.930 --> 00:49:56.900 flow. 00:49:56.900 --> 00:49:59.750 And so this is one of the key aspects. 00:49:59.750 --> 00:50:03.250 But also, other aspect for the [INAUDIBLE],, 00:50:03.250 --> 00:50:06.820 you already mentioned incorporating how the Seven 00:50:06.820 --> 00:50:13.750 Sisters and the transit Bangladesh can help achieving 00:50:13.750 --> 00:50:16.030 this-- 00:50:16.030 --> 00:50:22.690 the new water treaty that incorporates 00:50:22.690 --> 00:50:25.550 ensuring future river flow. 00:50:25.550 --> 00:50:28.840 But also, the last few years, there 00:50:28.840 --> 00:50:34.420 was a discussion for developing barrage in the Ganges 00:50:34.420 --> 00:50:39.130 within the Bangladesh part, which India denied 00:50:39.130 --> 00:50:40.750 and which India opposed. 00:50:40.750 --> 00:50:43.480 And that plan has been halt. 00:50:43.480 --> 00:50:44.980 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: The deep sea base. 00:50:44.980 --> 00:50:46.510 The deep sea base. 00:50:46.510 --> 00:50:48.323 DR. GAIN: Not deep sea, barrage in the-- 00:50:48.323 --> 00:50:49.990 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Oh, the barrage, yeah. 00:50:49.990 --> 00:50:52.990 DR. GAIN: Yeah, the freshwater flow barrage 00:50:52.990 --> 00:50:59.830 in the Bangladesh to a store freshwater for southwest part 00:50:59.830 --> 00:51:01.070 of the Bangladesh. 00:51:01.070 --> 00:51:03.910 So this kind of option creation can 00:51:03.910 --> 00:51:07.460 be helpful for treaty negotiations. 00:51:07.460 --> 00:51:11.110 So I believe, if you can ask some of the peoples 00:51:11.110 --> 00:51:14.180 that I already mentioned to you, if you interview them, 00:51:14.180 --> 00:51:17.410 I think you can have much more insight for the paper. 00:51:17.410 --> 00:51:20.380 You might not consider them, given the time limit. 00:51:20.380 --> 00:51:22.510 But as Larry mentioned, if you consider 00:51:22.510 --> 00:51:25.780 only two or three specific points that 00:51:25.780 --> 00:51:28.900 can be helpful for incorporating-- so one 00:51:28.900 --> 00:51:30.280 could be the climate change. 00:51:30.280 --> 00:51:34.510 Other could be the engaging stakeholders, like state-level 00:51:34.510 --> 00:51:40.120 stakeholders and interacting with the Seven Sisters 00:51:40.120 --> 00:51:42.340 state for the transit and how this 00:51:42.340 --> 00:51:47.080 can help treaty negotiations. 00:51:47.080 --> 00:51:51.050 These are specific aspects you can consider. 00:51:51.050 --> 00:51:52.920 MASHROOF HOSSAIN: Thank you very much.