WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.972 [SQUEAKING] 00:00:01.972 --> 00:00:04.437 [RUSTLING] 00:00:04.437 --> 00:00:05.916 [CLICKING] 00:00:20.828 --> 00:00:23.120 PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right, so what we're calling this, 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:24.940 the enabling conditions hypothesis. 00:00:24.940 --> 00:00:27.250 I did send you an op ed that was published, 00:00:27.250 --> 00:00:29.650 I think, about two years ago in a newspaper 00:00:29.650 --> 00:00:33.110 in Bangladesh called "Neither necessary nor sufficient." 00:00:33.110 --> 00:00:34.930 So this is what the idea was. 00:00:34.930 --> 00:00:36.790 "Neither necessary not sufficient-- three 00:00:36.790 --> 00:00:39.310 enabling conditions for effective transboundary water 00:00:39.310 --> 00:00:40.510 management." 00:00:40.510 --> 00:00:43.210 So I started with this idea that does life cause death? 00:00:43.210 --> 00:00:44.620 Does oxygen cause fire? 00:00:44.620 --> 00:00:46.630 Does rain cause flood? 00:00:46.630 --> 00:00:48.190 What it means, essentially, then, 00:00:48.190 --> 00:00:50.050 if you look at these three questions going 00:00:50.050 --> 00:00:53.590 from very philosophical point of view, that life cause death, 00:00:53.590 --> 00:00:56.850 of course, you need life before you can die. 00:00:56.850 --> 00:01:00.480 Just because if you are not alive, you cannot die, 00:01:00.480 --> 00:01:02.580 but does it cause it? 00:01:02.580 --> 00:01:05.340 The same thing with oxygen. Will oxygen-- 00:01:05.340 --> 00:01:07.910 does it cause fire? 00:01:07.910 --> 00:01:08.890 Why is this important? 00:01:08.890 --> 00:01:10.640 Because right now, I'm sitting in my room. 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:15.620 I have oxygen, but there's no fire. 00:01:15.620 --> 00:01:18.860 But think about the situation really about maybe 5,000 years 00:01:18.860 --> 00:01:21.450 ago, when we did not know about all of this, 00:01:21.450 --> 00:01:26.560 and we had a lot of fire in many different places. 00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:29.890 Then you are a scientifically minded individual, 00:01:29.890 --> 00:01:32.530 you went and measure everywhere, and you 00:01:32.530 --> 00:01:37.590 find that, in every place there is a fire, there is oxygen. 00:01:37.590 --> 00:01:39.630 So then you have a theory now. 00:01:39.630 --> 00:01:42.472 That theory tells you oxygen cause fire. 00:01:42.472 --> 00:01:44.930 It's a good theory because I don't think-- basically, think 00:01:44.930 --> 00:01:46.490 about it 5,000 years ago. 00:01:46.490 --> 00:01:48.350 I did not know any of this chemistry. 00:01:48.350 --> 00:01:51.050 I did not know oxygen. But I found out 00:01:51.050 --> 00:01:53.690 certain things are present in all situations when 00:01:53.690 --> 00:01:56.190 there is fire. 00:01:56.190 --> 00:01:57.980 So now, I am basically very brilliant. 00:01:57.980 --> 00:01:59.270 I came up with the theory-- 00:01:59.270 --> 00:02:00.410 oxygen cause fire. 00:02:03.710 --> 00:02:06.860 So this is the fundamental problem of cause and effect, 00:02:06.860 --> 00:02:12.770 or observing certain things by observing certain other things 00:02:12.770 --> 00:02:13.850 and trying to link them. 00:02:18.160 --> 00:02:21.000 So what I argue that this is really fundamentally 00:02:21.000 --> 00:02:23.380 what scientific methods are all about. 00:02:23.380 --> 00:02:27.180 You take observations, then you formulate a hypothesis, 00:02:27.180 --> 00:02:30.960 and then you test it, and then you refine it. 00:02:30.960 --> 00:02:33.090 So now, if you are 5,000 years ago, 00:02:33.090 --> 00:02:38.010 then how do you know that oxygen is not causing the fire? 00:02:38.010 --> 00:02:39.090 What do you have to do? 00:02:41.920 --> 00:02:44.560 This is where this idea of necessary sufficient conditions 00:02:44.560 --> 00:02:48.240 become extremely problematic. 00:02:48.240 --> 00:02:52.757 In this particular case, now you know that, for example, 00:02:52.757 --> 00:02:55.090 in my room right now, I'm sitting here, there is oxygen, 00:02:55.090 --> 00:02:57.000 but there's no fire. 00:02:57.000 --> 00:03:00.090 So that means, why it's not there? 00:03:00.090 --> 00:03:05.558 [INAUDIBLE] is necessary, but not sufficient. 00:03:05.558 --> 00:03:06.600 What is sufficient, then? 00:03:06.600 --> 00:03:08.700 You need to have some trigger. 00:03:08.700 --> 00:03:11.310 If you have a trigger, then it will start fires. 00:03:11.310 --> 00:03:17.600 We will now start basically-- put some fire here, maybe 00:03:17.600 --> 00:03:19.580 with a candle or something that makes 00:03:19.580 --> 00:03:22.380 my house may get into fire. 00:03:22.380 --> 00:03:24.250 So there's the distinction we need to make, 00:03:24.250 --> 00:03:28.500 but this is, right now, may seem very obvious. 00:03:28.500 --> 00:03:31.140 But when you get into the messiness 00:03:31.140 --> 00:03:32.970 of the transboundary water management 00:03:32.970 --> 00:03:35.830 or other complex problems, there are many, 00:03:35.830 --> 00:03:39.090 many causes can create an outcome. 00:03:39.090 --> 00:03:42.360 Many, many causes can create something that you see. 00:03:42.360 --> 00:03:44.460 So fire is what you see. 00:03:44.460 --> 00:03:47.820 Then you try to attribute some cause, 00:03:47.820 --> 00:03:50.370 and then you get into this idea of necessary and sufficient 00:03:50.370 --> 00:03:51.790 conditions. 00:03:51.790 --> 00:03:54.150 What we are arguing really, in complexity, 00:03:54.150 --> 00:03:58.500 that no, in complexity, problems are the problems 00:03:58.500 --> 00:04:04.470 which are complex, where many, many variables and actors 00:04:04.470 --> 00:04:07.500 and institutions are interacting with each other. 00:04:07.500 --> 00:04:13.380 You simply cannot isolate cause and effect very cleanly. 00:04:13.380 --> 00:04:16.260 There are causes, of course, but those are not 00:04:16.260 --> 00:04:18.240 easily identifiable. 00:04:18.240 --> 00:04:20.579 As a result, you get into trouble. 00:04:20.579 --> 00:04:21.690 What happens, really? 00:04:21.690 --> 00:04:24.360 You may identify something as cause, 00:04:24.360 --> 00:04:28.840 then very quickly you find out that is not the case. 00:04:28.840 --> 00:04:31.330 And you are seeing this with COVID-19 over the last 14 00:04:31.330 --> 00:04:32.590 months. 00:04:32.590 --> 00:04:34.605 We have attributed to many, many things 00:04:34.605 --> 00:04:35.980 there's a causal conditions, then 00:04:35.980 --> 00:04:38.080 later on, we found out they may not be. 00:04:38.080 --> 00:04:40.780 And we even found out that all kinds of solutions, 00:04:40.780 --> 00:04:44.710 starting from using bleach from our president, 00:04:44.710 --> 00:04:48.880 but these are all essentially just trying 00:04:48.880 --> 00:04:52.120 to relate some arbitrarily linked things. 00:04:52.120 --> 00:04:53.890 And in the simplest case, people would 00:04:53.890 --> 00:04:57.570 say that there are some correlation maybe. 00:04:57.570 --> 00:05:00.520 And you know the correlation is not causation, but that's-- 00:05:00.520 --> 00:05:02.400 we said this is very cliche. 00:05:02.400 --> 00:05:04.230 We're not interested. 00:05:04.230 --> 00:05:08.160 We are fundamentally challenging this idea of cause and effect, 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:12.360 that you simply cannot identify cause and effect very cleanly 00:05:12.360 --> 00:05:15.400 as you can in some other cases. 00:05:15.400 --> 00:05:17.610 Even in the simplest case, does rain cause flood? 00:05:20.570 --> 00:05:22.100 And one of us said, yes. 00:05:22.100 --> 00:05:23.195 Yes, it does. 00:05:23.195 --> 00:05:26.390 In most cases, it does, but in many cases, it do not. 00:05:26.390 --> 00:05:28.090 So think of, really, in Boston, it 00:05:28.090 --> 00:05:30.380 was not raining for the last several days. 00:05:30.380 --> 00:05:32.270 Now, if it rains one inch, there'll 00:05:32.270 --> 00:05:34.760 be no flood because most of the water 00:05:34.760 --> 00:05:38.150 will essentially infiltrate and go to the ground. 00:05:38.150 --> 00:05:42.860 Now, if it rains for three days in a row, yes, basically, 00:05:42.860 --> 00:05:44.420 soil will get saturated. 00:05:44.420 --> 00:05:47.370 You'll get flood. 00:05:47.370 --> 00:05:49.270 So that means you need some conditions. 00:05:49.270 --> 00:05:51.150 So here, rain is a necessary condition, 00:05:51.150 --> 00:05:54.260 but it's not a sufficient condition. 00:05:54.260 --> 00:05:56.080 The problem of this type of analysis 00:05:56.080 --> 00:05:57.850 really came if you go back now. 00:05:57.850 --> 00:06:00.910 Where is this idea of necessary and sufficient came? 00:06:00.910 --> 00:06:03.880 So I did dig basically deeper into this. 00:06:03.880 --> 00:06:07.310 It came from geometry. 00:06:07.310 --> 00:06:10.190 In geometry, it is very precise because I 00:06:10.190 --> 00:06:15.000 need to have four sides to have a rectangle, 00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:16.960 and with 90 degree angle. 00:06:16.960 --> 00:06:19.170 I need to have three sides to have a triangle. 00:06:19.170 --> 00:06:22.070 There is no way around it. 00:06:22.070 --> 00:06:24.440 So I can explicitly say, what are 00:06:24.440 --> 00:06:26.660 the necessary and sufficient conditions for something 00:06:26.660 --> 00:06:29.580 to be considered a triangle? 00:06:29.580 --> 00:06:33.660 That is not the case for many physical systems. 00:06:33.660 --> 00:06:36.060 More importantly, many coupled systems, 00:06:36.060 --> 00:06:39.180 like where you have natural systems and human systems, 00:06:39.180 --> 00:06:41.680 like our transboundary water problem, where 00:06:41.680 --> 00:06:43.560 you have natural systems, so water 00:06:43.560 --> 00:06:46.590 is getting coupled with the human systems of managing 00:06:46.590 --> 00:06:48.030 it and governing it. 00:06:48.030 --> 00:06:51.030 When they're coupled, the systems become complex. 00:06:51.030 --> 00:06:53.580 This notion of necessary and sufficient conditions 00:06:53.580 --> 00:06:56.140 are not good enough. 00:06:56.140 --> 00:06:58.240 So I'll stop here just to give you pause. 00:06:58.240 --> 00:07:01.150 See what you think about this distinction 00:07:01.150 --> 00:07:03.790 between necessary sufficient conditions. 00:07:03.790 --> 00:07:05.830 Then we'll go into enabling conditions. 00:07:08.157 --> 00:07:09.740 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I presume we don't 00:07:09.740 --> 00:07:16.990 have to wait 5,000 years to make judgments about such things, 00:07:16.990 --> 00:07:22.120 and I'm interested in how you think 00:07:22.120 --> 00:07:29.230 we know enough to say that's only correlation, that's 00:07:29.230 --> 00:07:31.780 not causation. 00:07:31.780 --> 00:07:33.370 And is it really-- 00:07:33.370 --> 00:07:38.260 could it be a function of time and perspective and experience, 00:07:38.260 --> 00:07:42.565 and that there's not really a method to know that quickly? 00:07:46.022 --> 00:07:47.980 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yes, we'll get into something. 00:07:47.980 --> 00:07:50.080 Basically, I did not have a chance 00:07:50.080 --> 00:07:51.290 to discuss this with you. 00:07:51.290 --> 00:07:54.460 So we are basically making distinctions now 00:07:54.460 --> 00:07:57.340 between two types of facts, and this is part of the discussion 00:07:57.340 --> 00:07:58.880 that we have today. 00:07:58.880 --> 00:08:01.270 So one thing that, over time, that we 00:08:01.270 --> 00:08:03.910 have learned this idea of scientific method 00:08:03.910 --> 00:08:05.950 and scientific facts. 00:08:05.950 --> 00:08:08.530 Another thing that basically we are [INAUDIBLE] 00:08:08.530 --> 00:08:10.660 has been used in social science for quite some time 00:08:10.660 --> 00:08:13.280 called social facts. 00:08:13.280 --> 00:08:16.340 And we are making a sharper distinction between these two 00:08:16.340 --> 00:08:20.660 right now, so what I argue really in this particular case, 00:08:20.660 --> 00:08:23.870 that scientific facts are basically 00:08:23.870 --> 00:08:25.970 a particular type of facts. 00:08:25.970 --> 00:08:32.659 Those facts are verifiable, reproducible, replicable. 00:08:32.659 --> 00:08:35.870 Those will not depend on daily perspective or notion. 00:08:35.870 --> 00:08:38.130 They may depend on matters over time, 00:08:38.130 --> 00:08:40.267 but there is a way to get around this. 00:08:40.267 --> 00:08:42.059 That's the whole idea of scientific method, 00:08:42.059 --> 00:08:43.190 so we'll talk about that. 00:08:43.190 --> 00:08:47.820 Social fact, on the other hand, does not have to be true. 00:08:47.820 --> 00:08:49.820 Does not even have to be verifiable. 00:08:49.820 --> 00:08:52.280 It's just, we believe. 00:08:52.280 --> 00:08:55.380 It's just that we accept it as reality. 00:08:55.380 --> 00:08:57.950 And that is fine, too, and we have done many of these. 00:08:57.950 --> 00:09:04.780 For example, this whole idea of currency is a social fact. 00:09:04.780 --> 00:09:06.990 We give tremendous amount of value 00:09:06.990 --> 00:09:09.510 now to this something green called dollar, 00:09:09.510 --> 00:09:12.440 and whether I'm in Bangladesh or in Boston doesn't matter. 00:09:12.440 --> 00:09:13.890 Everybody accepts it. 00:09:13.890 --> 00:09:19.080 Whether they believe in me, whether I am a atheist 00:09:19.080 --> 00:09:23.590 or I'm agnostic or I am Muslim does not matter. 00:09:23.590 --> 00:09:25.290 You accept it that this is something 00:09:25.290 --> 00:09:27.007 that everybody thinks is good. 00:09:27.007 --> 00:09:28.590 And now, think about what is happening 00:09:28.590 --> 00:09:30.120 with the Iranian currency. 00:09:30.120 --> 00:09:32.580 It has been significantly devalued 00:09:32.580 --> 00:09:35.410 because of all this embargo that we have created. 00:09:35.410 --> 00:09:39.270 So that is really a paper, and that paper 00:09:39.270 --> 00:09:41.880 has certain value because everybody in the world 00:09:41.880 --> 00:09:44.910 thinks the dollar is very valuable. 00:09:44.910 --> 00:09:46.620 This is social fact, and there is no way 00:09:46.620 --> 00:09:48.540 to justify whether this is true or not. 00:09:48.540 --> 00:09:50.130 It is true right now. 00:09:50.130 --> 00:09:52.650 I can use it anywhere I want, but I do not 00:09:52.650 --> 00:09:55.803 know what will happen to this really 10 years from now. 00:09:55.803 --> 00:09:57.720 So those are the distinctions we need to make, 00:09:57.720 --> 00:09:59.760 and we will make those distinctions when 00:09:59.760 --> 00:10:02.340 we are talking about scientific fact and social fact. 00:10:02.340 --> 00:10:06.900 In this particular case of your fire 00:10:06.900 --> 00:10:11.060 can be basically determined by scientific method 00:10:11.060 --> 00:10:12.310 because what can we do really? 00:10:12.310 --> 00:10:14.620 Even 5,000 years, we didn't have to go that far. 00:10:14.620 --> 00:10:20.060 We can find out really that, although oxygen is necessary, 00:10:20.060 --> 00:10:21.820 it does not create fire everywhere. 00:10:21.820 --> 00:10:24.350 So that means something else has to happen, 00:10:24.350 --> 00:10:26.740 so that is a systematic way of doing experiments 00:10:26.740 --> 00:10:29.120 and then to find that out. 00:10:29.120 --> 00:10:32.910 But I have seen few places where there is fire there is oxygen, 00:10:32.910 --> 00:10:36.380 so my immediate conclusion could be that oxygen causes fire. 00:10:36.380 --> 00:10:40.408 Then there has to be question, and we find over time. 00:10:40.408 --> 00:10:41.700 So let's go with this enabling. 00:10:41.700 --> 00:10:43.320 So what we are saying here, that we 00:10:43.320 --> 00:10:45.480 need three enabling conditions, and I 00:10:45.480 --> 00:10:48.450 was careful not to use this idea of necessary and sufficient 00:10:48.450 --> 00:10:48.985 anymore. 00:10:48.985 --> 00:10:50.610 So three enabling conditions are needed 00:10:50.610 --> 00:10:53.700 for any boundary crossing complex water agreement 00:10:53.700 --> 00:10:56.640 to be initiated, implemented, and sustained. 00:10:56.640 --> 00:10:59.460 So this is a very big claim we're making here. 00:10:59.460 --> 00:11:01.470 So whether you are working with the Indus treaty 00:11:01.470 --> 00:11:04.530 or you are working with Ganges, what we are saying then, 00:11:04.530 --> 00:11:08.130 Mashroof, if you want to be basically writing your Ganges 00:11:08.130 --> 00:11:11.670 treaty for 2026, yeah, we want to do it. 00:11:11.670 --> 00:11:14.720 We need to be very careful about these three conditions. 00:11:14.720 --> 00:11:16.470 You may say no, no, I need something else. 00:11:16.470 --> 00:11:18.000 Then we'll talk about this. 00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:21.490 But what I am saying that, at least these three are needed. 00:11:21.490 --> 00:11:23.290 So what are these three? 00:11:23.290 --> 00:11:25.740 The first one is there has to be an active recognition 00:11:25.740 --> 00:11:29.970 of interdependencies, meaning that if you need 00:11:29.970 --> 00:11:33.450 to sign a Ganges treaty between India and Bangladesh, 00:11:33.450 --> 00:11:37.500 they have to actively recognize interdependencies. 00:11:37.500 --> 00:11:40.260 India has to recognize that Bangladesh exists, 00:11:40.260 --> 00:11:42.090 and they need them. 00:11:42.090 --> 00:11:44.948 Just saying that because India is upstream, 00:11:44.948 --> 00:11:45.990 Bangladesh is downstream. 00:11:45.990 --> 00:11:49.200 Of course, there is already interdependency there, 00:11:49.200 --> 00:11:50.915 but that's not good enough. 00:11:50.915 --> 00:11:53.040 What is happening right now, if you think about it, 00:11:53.040 --> 00:11:57.150 like Animesh, and we worked on a little bit with Brahmaputra, 00:11:57.150 --> 00:11:59.280 Brahmaputra is creating serious problems 00:11:59.280 --> 00:12:04.000 between China and India, but there is no active recognition 00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:05.470 right now. 00:12:05.470 --> 00:12:07.960 China, India, although they're independent, 00:12:07.960 --> 00:12:09.850 is saying that you are using our water, 00:12:09.850 --> 00:12:11.780 and we are in serious trouble. 00:12:11.780 --> 00:12:16.510 But they have never, so far, actively recognized this. 00:12:16.510 --> 00:12:18.640 As a result, really, what we argued that, no, 00:12:18.640 --> 00:12:20.860 I don't think they're going to go to any treaty. 00:12:20.860 --> 00:12:23.050 And they are not right now, although there 00:12:23.050 --> 00:12:25.650 is a lot of noise, a lot of discussion, 00:12:25.650 --> 00:12:28.840 a lot of international forum, international funding 00:12:28.840 --> 00:12:32.590 agency trying to find out what is going on in Brahmaputra. 00:12:32.590 --> 00:12:35.710 What I'm arguing that I'm yet to see anything that 00:12:35.710 --> 00:12:38.440 is tangible happening in the Brahmaputra, 00:12:38.440 --> 00:12:41.860 so if you have to ask me, these are dangerous game to play. 00:12:41.860 --> 00:12:44.110 In terms of prediction, there would not 00:12:44.110 --> 00:12:49.270 be a Brahmaputra treaty signed unless this recognition is 00:12:49.270 --> 00:12:54.740 active between China and India, and that 00:12:54.740 --> 00:12:57.210 is exactly what happened really if you look at Indus Water 00:12:57.210 --> 00:12:57.710 Treaty. 00:12:57.710 --> 00:13:02.510 Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India 00:13:02.510 --> 00:13:05.450 because they actively recognized that this is important. 00:13:05.450 --> 00:13:09.140 About the same time, President Johnson from the US 00:13:09.140 --> 00:13:13.310 sent another envoy to Israel and Palistine 00:13:13.310 --> 00:13:15.200 to have Jordan treaty. 00:13:15.200 --> 00:13:19.120 Jordan treaty was not signed until 1994. 00:13:19.120 --> 00:13:23.080 So why one was signed in 1969, another was in 1994? 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:32.533 In both cases, US was basically a significant player. 00:13:32.533 --> 00:13:34.200 So you need to think about those treaty. 00:13:34.200 --> 00:13:38.570 Then I say, yeah, look, at that time, they did not recognize. 00:13:38.570 --> 00:13:43.120 Jordan did not recognize Israel is important or vice versa. 00:13:43.120 --> 00:13:45.360 So as a result, it took a long time. 00:13:45.360 --> 00:13:47.490 In 1994, they came, and basically, they 00:13:47.490 --> 00:13:48.510 signed the peace treaty. 00:13:48.510 --> 00:13:51.700 Part of that was a water treaty, too. 00:13:51.700 --> 00:13:54.220 So you just think about those two cases between Indus 00:13:54.220 --> 00:13:56.800 and Jordan, then you get some clue really 00:13:56.800 --> 00:14:00.100 what this enabling condition 1 means. 00:14:00.100 --> 00:14:02.650 Second one is that, I'm sure you've talked about this, 00:14:02.650 --> 00:14:05.060 mutual value creation. 00:14:05.060 --> 00:14:07.900 So just because you've recognized the problem, 00:14:07.900 --> 00:14:10.100 and you have a conflict, is not good enough. 00:14:10.100 --> 00:14:11.800 Now, you have to see, really, can you 00:14:11.800 --> 00:14:15.250 create some mutual value through negotiation 00:14:15.250 --> 00:14:16.630 that both parties will benefit? 00:14:19.580 --> 00:14:23.460 Because otherwise, you have limited amount of water, 00:14:23.460 --> 00:14:25.220 and you have no way to divide this. 00:14:25.220 --> 00:14:27.680 And your actual need is much more 00:14:27.680 --> 00:14:29.720 than what is actually available, then 00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:32.032 how do you get around this? 00:14:32.032 --> 00:14:33.740 So only way then you can get around this, 00:14:33.740 --> 00:14:35.570 if you create some mutual value, and then 00:14:35.570 --> 00:14:37.050 you can do it many different ways, 00:14:37.050 --> 00:14:40.790 I'm sure Larry and Animesh has given you ideas of, 00:14:40.790 --> 00:14:42.770 really, how to create mutual values. 00:14:42.770 --> 00:14:44.240 How do you connect different type 00:14:44.240 --> 00:14:47.460 of sectors and different resources, and so on? 00:14:47.460 --> 00:14:49.280 You don't have to talk about water only. 00:14:49.280 --> 00:14:50.300 You can bring in food. 00:14:50.300 --> 00:14:51.560 You can bring in energy. 00:14:51.560 --> 00:14:52.970 You can bring in security. 00:14:52.970 --> 00:14:55.340 You can bring in military power. 00:14:55.340 --> 00:14:57.950 All kinds of things can be done. 00:14:57.950 --> 00:15:01.190 DR. GAIN: So to discuss these things, 00:15:01.190 --> 00:15:05.600 if we consider this Ganges example, 00:15:05.600 --> 00:15:09.570 we already had the Ganges treaty, but in my view, 00:15:09.570 --> 00:15:15.500 this mutual value creation didn't happen until now. 00:15:15.500 --> 00:15:18.000 But already the treaty has been signed. 00:15:18.000 --> 00:15:20.570 So what do you say about that? 00:15:20.570 --> 00:15:25.220 Although this enabling condition didn't meet, 00:15:25.220 --> 00:15:30.840 but there is a treaty or negotiation? 00:15:30.840 --> 00:15:32.340 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Notice the EC here, 00:15:32.340 --> 00:15:35.040 we said the initiative implemented and sustained. 00:15:35.040 --> 00:15:35.700 DR. GAIN: Yeah. 00:15:35.700 --> 00:15:37.408 PROFESSOR ISLAM:: So yes, you can have it 00:15:37.408 --> 00:15:39.150 because you have it for-- 00:15:39.150 --> 00:15:41.790 basically, all the mutual value fully was not done, 00:15:41.790 --> 00:15:43.498 but it was done partly. 00:15:43.498 --> 00:15:44.790 There were certain things done. 00:15:44.790 --> 00:15:47.940 For example, Bangladesh could have told India 00:15:47.940 --> 00:15:51.690 that, look, if we want to have this treaty now, 00:15:51.690 --> 00:15:54.860 you want transit, we'll give you transit. 00:15:54.860 --> 00:15:57.590 So India wanted transit really from, basically, 00:15:57.590 --> 00:15:59.660 to go through Bangladesh to Tripura. 00:15:59.660 --> 00:16:01.620 See, they want to do this, said let's do this. 00:16:01.620 --> 00:16:04.700 The Bangladesh trying to do this Ganges barrage now, 00:16:04.700 --> 00:16:08.570 so for Ganges barrage, India may get flooded a little bit. 00:16:08.570 --> 00:16:11.703 Can that be brought into the picture? 00:16:11.703 --> 00:16:13.120 So the issue is that basically you 00:16:13.120 --> 00:16:14.590 have to bring in other issues. 00:16:14.590 --> 00:16:18.010 Those are now basically being discussed in Bangladesh 00:16:18.010 --> 00:16:18.850 right now. 00:16:18.850 --> 00:16:21.400 If you think about what is the particular problem 00:16:21.400 --> 00:16:26.620 with the Ganges, Ganges is not a problem for the flood season. 00:16:26.620 --> 00:16:29.070 The problem is really the dry season. 00:16:29.070 --> 00:16:30.940 See, in the dry season, the flow goes 00:16:30.940 --> 00:16:36.010 down so low that we have serious issues of water shortage. 00:16:36.010 --> 00:16:38.210 So take a hypothetical example-- 00:16:38.210 --> 00:16:40.480 if you take the entire water, basically 00:16:40.480 --> 00:16:43.930 during the dry season, it's about 4,000 [INAUDIBLE].. 00:16:43.930 --> 00:16:48.130 Still, it would not be good enough to keep the Kolkata port 00:16:48.130 --> 00:16:49.090 navigable. 00:16:49.090 --> 00:16:52.060 One of the primary reasons that India wanted to build 00:16:52.060 --> 00:16:56.260 the Farakka barrage was to keep Kolkata port navigable, 00:16:56.260 --> 00:17:00.190 but in the dry season, the flow goes so low, it still cannot-- 00:17:00.190 --> 00:17:02.000 even they have taken all the water. 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:04.869 So that means they have to come up with alternative sources. 00:17:04.869 --> 00:17:07.420 Can they use ground water? 00:17:07.420 --> 00:17:11.530 Can this basically store water during the flood season 00:17:11.530 --> 00:17:13.359 over extended period of the river? 00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:17.140 That is what Bangladesh proposed in the Ganges barrage. 00:17:17.140 --> 00:17:21.010 So this is a over 50 mile river that will 00:17:21.010 --> 00:17:23.770 be using as a storage device. 00:17:23.770 --> 00:17:25.780 Because Bangladesh is a very flat country, 00:17:25.780 --> 00:17:28.030 we cannot create another dam. 00:17:28.030 --> 00:17:31.090 So that's another mutual value creation 00:17:31.090 --> 00:17:33.312 option can be explored. 00:17:33.312 --> 00:17:35.270 AUDIENCE: Let me ask you a question, professor. 00:17:35.270 --> 00:17:36.838 PROFESSOR: Please. 00:17:36.838 --> 00:17:38.880 AUDIENCE: So you said something very interesting, 00:17:38.880 --> 00:17:41.190 that creating mutual values. 00:17:41.190 --> 00:17:43.260 From what I understood-- 00:17:43.260 --> 00:17:44.430 I might be wrong-- 00:17:44.430 --> 00:17:46.740 that anything goes. 00:17:46.740 --> 00:17:51.960 So one of the tension between Bangladesh and India 00:17:51.960 --> 00:17:57.120 is Bangladesh being used as a vessel 00:17:57.120 --> 00:18:01.170 to create trouble in its Seven Sisters, which 00:18:01.170 --> 00:18:03.750 is why it is of India's interest to maintain 00:18:03.750 --> 00:18:05.560 the security in Bangladesh. 00:18:05.560 --> 00:18:11.820 So I'm wondering if that sort of value can be created even-- 00:18:11.820 --> 00:18:14.130 I mean, can this be used as a bargaining chip? 00:18:14.130 --> 00:18:16.170 So that is what I want to know. 00:18:16.170 --> 00:18:17.375 PROFESSOR: Definitely, yes. 00:18:17.375 --> 00:18:18.750 I'll tell you something that is-- 00:18:18.750 --> 00:18:20.520 I think you hit it exactly right. 00:18:20.520 --> 00:18:23.700 So about three years ago, when we have our water diplomacy 00:18:23.700 --> 00:18:25.440 workshop, and Larry may remember, 00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:28.950 we have four individuals from Bangladesh 00:18:28.950 --> 00:18:32.760 foreign ministry came from foreign ministry 00:18:32.760 --> 00:18:36.240 really to learn about water diplomacy in our workshop. 00:18:36.240 --> 00:18:38.370 And their primary concern was that they 00:18:38.370 --> 00:18:40.890 want to work on the water treaty, what would they do? 00:18:40.890 --> 00:18:43.170 So we discuss the Seven Sisters issue, 00:18:43.170 --> 00:18:45.690 and we discussed that this is an issue that, yeah, this is 00:18:45.690 --> 00:18:48.030 a security problem for India. 00:18:48.030 --> 00:18:50.760 Can that be used, that Bangladesh 00:18:50.760 --> 00:18:52.630 will create opportunity for that, 00:18:52.630 --> 00:18:56.700 so that these insurgencies do not create problem for India? 00:18:56.700 --> 00:19:00.540 Yes, this is open for discussion. 00:19:00.540 --> 00:19:03.180 You can link that with basically water. 00:19:03.180 --> 00:19:05.102 AUDIENCE: In that case, so I can actually 00:19:05.102 --> 00:19:06.810 bring security where I work [INAUDIBLE]?? 00:19:06.810 --> 00:19:07.530 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yes, you can. 00:19:07.530 --> 00:19:10.350 You can-- and then definitely, and this is a relevant problem 00:19:10.350 --> 00:19:14.430 for India to basically keep taking care of those Seven 00:19:14.430 --> 00:19:18.000 Sisters and this insurgency is a serious security problem. 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:20.780 And Bangladesh can help. 00:19:20.780 --> 00:19:25.010 And also, Bangladesh can be used as a transit. 00:19:25.010 --> 00:19:30.180 But then, Bangladesh has to ask something else in return. 00:19:30.180 --> 00:19:31.830 That is why the discussion must go on. 00:19:31.830 --> 00:19:34.610 This is a discussion I had with the foreign minister. 00:19:34.610 --> 00:19:36.780 And even after that, so I went to Bangladesh 00:19:36.780 --> 00:19:39.720 and we did have a workshop on water diplomacy 00:19:39.720 --> 00:19:42.540 within the Foreign, basically, Ministry. 00:19:42.540 --> 00:19:44.430 And then pandemic started. 00:19:44.430 --> 00:19:46.572 Of course, then we got stuck. 00:19:46.572 --> 00:19:48.030 The difficulty, I'll tell you, this 00:19:48.030 --> 00:19:50.860 is just not to be shared with Bangladesh government. 00:19:50.860 --> 00:19:55.250 So I think the difficulty that we have in Bangladesh-- 00:19:55.250 --> 00:19:57.750 many of these ministries are extremely, I think I would say, 00:19:57.750 --> 00:19:58.620 progressive. 00:19:58.620 --> 00:20:01.850 But there is no system memory. 00:20:01.850 --> 00:20:04.600 Meaning that water secretary is water secretary right now. 00:20:04.600 --> 00:20:08.500 Suddenly, he gets transferred to transportation. 00:20:08.500 --> 00:20:10.900 That memory doesn't exist, that basically he 00:20:10.900 --> 00:20:12.080 needs to do certain things. 00:20:12.080 --> 00:20:14.965 And that does not continue to the next secretary. 00:20:14.965 --> 00:20:19.750 So as a result, really, you reinvent everything every time. 00:20:19.750 --> 00:20:21.426 And that's a problem. 00:20:21.426 --> 00:20:24.140 AUDIENCE: And then the lack of institutional memory is like, 00:20:24.140 --> 00:20:26.240 it's a serious issue in developing countries 00:20:26.240 --> 00:20:27.350 like Bangladesh. 00:20:27.350 --> 00:20:28.560 I completely agree. 00:20:28.560 --> 00:20:30.680 I work for the government so I understand. 00:20:30.680 --> 00:20:32.130 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So that's a different problem. 00:20:32.130 --> 00:20:33.410 So that's the way we'll go later, maybe. 00:20:33.410 --> 00:20:34.868 So the third one that we're seeing, 00:20:34.868 --> 00:20:36.750 this adaptive regime of governance. 00:20:36.750 --> 00:20:39.590 And that is also very important because you need to anticipate. 00:20:39.590 --> 00:20:42.770 I think, Hossain, you are saying that, yes, in industry there 00:20:42.770 --> 00:20:44.570 is no climate change dimension. 00:20:44.570 --> 00:20:47.900 Because in 1960, we did not know even climate existed, 00:20:47.900 --> 00:20:49.650 let alone climate change. 00:20:49.650 --> 00:20:51.230 So we have no idea about this. 00:20:51.230 --> 00:20:53.640 So but, they did not put any provision. 00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:55.910 But they did put some other provision though. 00:20:55.910 --> 00:20:59.150 If you look at the industry, they had a technical provision 00:20:59.150 --> 00:21:02.330 that they said that if there is a technical problem, 00:21:02.330 --> 00:21:04.400 that Pakistan and India cannot resolve, 00:21:04.400 --> 00:21:07.238 somebody else should come into the picture. 00:21:07.238 --> 00:21:08.780 You know what that somebody else was? 00:21:11.290 --> 00:21:13.292 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I have mentioned it already. 00:21:13.292 --> 00:21:14.500 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Oh, you did? 00:21:14.500 --> 00:21:15.540 OK. 00:21:15.540 --> 00:21:20.410 All right, so that was brilliant. 00:21:20.410 --> 00:21:22.030 That was brilliant. 00:21:22.030 --> 00:21:23.650 The question is basically, why there 00:21:23.650 --> 00:21:27.520 might be precedent has to be basically somebody has to come 00:21:27.520 --> 00:21:29.230 in and then appoint a body. 00:21:29.230 --> 00:21:32.260 Because they thought MIT is a good technical institution. 00:21:32.260 --> 00:21:35.260 They may still exist for 50, 60 years from now. 00:21:35.260 --> 00:21:39.410 And they will have no interest in India and Pakistan. 00:21:39.410 --> 00:21:40.500 So this was brilliant. 00:21:40.500 --> 00:21:42.550 So when you are trying to design this treaty 00:21:42.550 --> 00:21:44.890 for Indus or for the Ganges, you need 00:21:44.890 --> 00:21:46.180 to be also thinking forward. 00:21:46.180 --> 00:21:48.130 Basically, you don't know what will happen, 00:21:48.130 --> 00:21:49.510 whether climate change will come. 00:21:49.510 --> 00:21:53.802 What will happen if another COVID-22 comes in, who knows? 00:21:53.802 --> 00:21:55.260 But there has to be some provisions 00:21:55.260 --> 00:21:57.120 so that this can be used. 00:21:57.120 --> 00:21:58.680 What we are doing in this enabling 00:21:58.680 --> 00:22:01.950 condition hypothesis is this-- 00:22:01.950 --> 00:22:04.800 if they are not in place, your treaty 00:22:04.800 --> 00:22:08.750 is not going to be basically implemented well. 00:22:08.750 --> 00:22:10.250 It cannot be sustained very well. 00:22:10.250 --> 00:22:11.700 That's a big claim. 00:22:11.700 --> 00:22:15.380 So I want to hear or maybe you can do it 00:22:15.380 --> 00:22:20.920 later as well that, find out a treaty that was initiated, 00:22:20.920 --> 00:22:23.690 implemented, and sustained for a long period of time. 00:22:23.690 --> 00:22:27.550 But one of these conditions were missing. 00:22:27.550 --> 00:22:29.770 That would be a good exercise. 00:22:29.770 --> 00:22:31.150 I could not find one yet. 00:22:34.240 --> 00:22:36.190 But are these going to guarantee success? 00:22:36.190 --> 00:22:38.075 No. 00:22:38.075 --> 00:22:39.700 They're not going to guarantee success. 00:22:39.700 --> 00:22:44.200 But you can see, these are minimum subset. 00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:46.840 The one example I usually give to make it simpler 00:22:46.840 --> 00:22:49.970 is that if you want to get a PhD, what 00:22:49.970 --> 00:22:53.230 are the enabling conditions. 00:22:53.230 --> 00:22:56.880 Number 1 is obvious, I think, that you have to be alive. 00:22:56.880 --> 00:22:58.180 Otherwise, you cannot do it. 00:22:58.180 --> 00:22:59.130 So fine. 00:22:59.130 --> 00:23:02.268 Number 2 is that you need to have a bachelor's. 00:23:02.268 --> 00:23:04.060 Unless you are getting an honorary degree-- 00:23:04.060 --> 00:23:05.727 we're not talking about honorary degree. 00:23:05.727 --> 00:23:08.530 If you said earn PhD, you need to have a bachelor's. 00:23:08.530 --> 00:23:10.050 So which bachelor's, I do not know. 00:23:10.050 --> 00:23:11.730 It could be in political science. 00:23:11.730 --> 00:23:14.820 It could be in hydrology, could be in computer science. 00:23:14.820 --> 00:23:15.570 Does not matter. 00:23:15.570 --> 00:23:17.403 But you need to have a bachelor's, at least. 00:23:20.010 --> 00:23:24.043 Everything else are situational. 00:23:24.043 --> 00:23:25.210 You need to have an advisor. 00:23:25.210 --> 00:23:26.180 You need to have funding. 00:23:26.180 --> 00:23:27.222 You need to have a topic. 00:23:27.222 --> 00:23:28.760 All kinds of things will be needed. 00:23:28.760 --> 00:23:31.580 And then, of course, you have to pass the qualifying exam. 00:23:31.580 --> 00:23:33.500 A department has different requirements. 00:23:33.500 --> 00:23:35.390 You have to take this course, that course. 00:23:35.390 --> 00:23:37.610 Those are called situational conditions. 00:23:37.610 --> 00:23:40.070 If first two enabling conditions are not there, 00:23:40.070 --> 00:23:42.640 you're not getting. 00:23:42.640 --> 00:23:44.680 But just because you have those first two 00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:46.220 doesn't mean that you'll get PhD. 00:23:46.220 --> 00:23:47.960 No. 00:23:47.960 --> 00:23:50.602 So that's what the difference is. 00:23:50.602 --> 00:23:52.060 So when you're thinking about this, 00:23:52.060 --> 00:23:54.200 you're thinking along those lines. 00:23:54.200 --> 00:23:56.440 So these are not necessary and sufficient conditions. 00:23:56.440 --> 00:23:58.482 I'm not telling you what will be necessary to get 00:23:58.482 --> 00:24:01.337 a PhD, what will be sufficient to get a PhD. 00:24:01.337 --> 00:24:02.920 But I'm just telling you that you need 00:24:02.920 --> 00:24:04.480 these two enabling conditions. 00:24:04.480 --> 00:24:08.450 Then, you need many, many situational conditions. 00:24:08.450 --> 00:24:11.270 And those situational conditions are context dependent. 00:24:11.270 --> 00:24:15.260 It will depend whether it is at MIT or Tufts or somewhere else, 00:24:15.260 --> 00:24:18.500 whether you're in engineering versus in urban planning. 00:24:18.500 --> 00:24:21.140 They have different requirements. 00:24:21.140 --> 00:24:24.950 DR. GAIN: But then, what is the difference 00:24:24.950 --> 00:24:30.118 between a necessary condition and enabling condition? 00:24:30.118 --> 00:24:32.970 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Oh no, necessary conditions 00:24:32.970 --> 00:24:33.973 could be many. 00:24:33.973 --> 00:24:36.390 I'm telling you that you don't need more than these three. 00:24:39.520 --> 00:24:41.530 I can come up with many necessary conditions 00:24:41.530 --> 00:24:43.390 that may not still satisfy all. 00:24:43.390 --> 00:24:48.152 And see, the reason I think I want 00:24:48.152 --> 00:24:50.110 to get away from this necessary and sufficient, 00:24:50.110 --> 00:24:54.130 as we mentioned, this really came from a very structured 00:24:54.130 --> 00:24:56.830 discipline called geometry. 00:24:56.830 --> 00:25:00.610 So I'm trying to solve a geometric problem. 00:25:00.610 --> 00:25:04.420 Now I want to apply it to my messy transboundary water 00:25:04.420 --> 00:25:05.988 management problem. 00:25:05.988 --> 00:25:08.030 That's the reason I want to make the distinction. 00:25:08.030 --> 00:25:11.130 Because here, if you look at the news and look at writings, 00:25:11.130 --> 00:25:14.150 you'll see that, yeah, this was not a necessary condition. 00:25:14.150 --> 00:25:16.250 We did not satisfy necessary conditions. 00:25:16.250 --> 00:25:19.793 Then you ask them, OK, so what are the necessary conditions. 00:25:19.793 --> 00:25:21.210 So to give you a simple example, I 00:25:21.210 --> 00:25:23.910 tell you that I want to go from here to New York. 00:25:27.020 --> 00:25:29.300 So what are the necessary and sufficient conditions? 00:25:32.000 --> 00:25:36.110 Can you exhaustively write this? 00:25:36.110 --> 00:25:37.740 AUDIENCE: No, there would be thousands. 00:25:37.740 --> 00:25:39.943 So it is not possible to cover them all. 00:25:39.943 --> 00:25:41.110 PROFESSOR ISLAM: You got it. 00:25:41.110 --> 00:25:44.290 So this is basically a very large space. 00:25:44.290 --> 00:25:46.670 I may decide to walk. 00:25:46.670 --> 00:25:48.430 I may decide to take a plane. 00:25:48.430 --> 00:25:50.650 I'll take a bike. 00:25:50.650 --> 00:25:55.110 I'll take a bike and then I will take a boat. 00:25:55.110 --> 00:25:56.040 Or I have a donkey. 00:25:58.610 --> 00:26:03.520 So I essentially cannot exhaustively write down all 00:26:03.520 --> 00:26:04.670 the conditions. 00:26:04.670 --> 00:26:05.920 That's what the difficulty is. 00:26:05.920 --> 00:26:07.870 So that brings us to something else 00:26:07.870 --> 00:26:11.300 that I want to start maybe our talk. 00:26:11.300 --> 00:26:12.490 So let's start there. 00:26:12.490 --> 00:26:18.100 AUDIENCE: Legal language sometimes like try to, I mean, 00:26:18.100 --> 00:26:19.630 make conditions that are exhaustive. 00:26:19.630 --> 00:26:23.910 For example, if the corporate of a chocolate 00:26:23.910 --> 00:26:26.640 is asked by a lawyer, then he would 00:26:26.640 --> 00:26:33.240 write that this chocolate has to be from this particular tree. 00:26:33.240 --> 00:26:37.800 And it cannot be consumed by any other party without paying 00:26:37.800 --> 00:26:42.190 the money to the original company in any form. 00:26:42.190 --> 00:26:45.290 So in this way, they can probably minimize-- 00:26:45.290 --> 00:26:47.880 I don't know whether I could make sense or not. 00:26:47.880 --> 00:26:49.920 But the legal language sometimes tries 00:26:49.920 --> 00:26:53.318 to cover all those conditions that you say, 00:26:53.318 --> 00:26:54.735 that there are so many conditions. 00:26:54.735 --> 00:26:56.100 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure. 00:26:56.100 --> 00:26:57.518 So this is where essentially now I 00:26:57.518 --> 00:26:58.810 think you got it exactly right. 00:26:58.810 --> 00:27:00.420 So this is what basically-- although we 00:27:00.420 --> 00:27:02.470 don't want to talk about our previous procedures. 00:27:02.470 --> 00:27:06.060 So now if you come into the problem, really, 00:27:06.060 --> 00:27:09.720 if you want to define really what the presidency should 00:27:09.720 --> 00:27:15.000 entail, does president have to really file taxes and make 00:27:15.000 --> 00:27:15.720 it clear. 00:27:15.720 --> 00:27:18.690 This was not explicit. 00:27:18.690 --> 00:27:22.470 It was not explicitly he has to file taxes and make it public. 00:27:22.470 --> 00:27:24.000 So he decided not to do it. 00:27:24.000 --> 00:27:25.890 Now the question is, how many things can you 00:27:25.890 --> 00:27:27.960 write down explicitly the president has to do. 00:27:27.960 --> 00:27:30.610 Then I have to even tell you, when he goes to the bathroom, 00:27:30.610 --> 00:27:33.783 this is what he has to use just to make it-- 00:27:33.783 --> 00:27:34.700 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 00:27:34.700 --> 00:27:35.575 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So-- 00:27:35.575 --> 00:27:37.075 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] 00:27:37.075 --> 00:27:40.070 PROFESSOR ISLAM: The problem is, so this is exactly the point. 00:27:40.070 --> 00:27:42.590 So for the presidents of the United States, 00:27:42.590 --> 00:27:45.410 how many things you can explicitly write what 00:27:45.410 --> 00:27:48.230 he or she does really as a president. 00:27:48.230 --> 00:27:49.440 We cannot do this. 00:27:49.440 --> 00:27:51.680 So we are assuming that certain things, 00:27:51.680 --> 00:27:55.580 they will do because they are morally responsible 00:27:55.580 --> 00:27:58.120 individuals. 00:27:58.120 --> 00:28:00.830 I cannot be explicit about them. 00:28:00.830 --> 00:28:02.660 Because if I make it explicit, then it 00:28:02.660 --> 00:28:03.920 becomes essentially routine. 00:28:03.920 --> 00:28:05.962 As you said, [INAUDIBLE],, you can write it down, 00:28:05.962 --> 00:28:08.630 this particular chocolate came from this particular tree 00:28:08.630 --> 00:28:12.220 and this can be eaten by only this particular individual. 00:28:12.220 --> 00:28:13.690 Fine. 00:28:13.690 --> 00:28:17.332 But then how many of them you write? 00:28:17.332 --> 00:28:19.790 That is where essential and necessary sufficient conditions 00:28:19.790 --> 00:28:23.030 miserably fail, particularly in the system when 00:28:23.030 --> 00:28:23.780 those are coupled. 00:28:26.620 --> 00:28:27.790 It can be fine. 00:28:27.790 --> 00:28:31.720 Right now, if you have asked me, the best law that we have 00:28:31.720 --> 00:28:33.460 is Newton's laws of gravity. 00:28:33.460 --> 00:28:37.330 What is it that basically apple fall? 00:28:37.330 --> 00:28:39.910 An apple was falling before Newton. 00:28:39.910 --> 00:28:41.350 We just did not understand this. 00:28:41.350 --> 00:28:44.350 He was brilliant to find out a particular law that 00:28:44.350 --> 00:28:46.610 applies everywhere right now. 00:28:46.610 --> 00:28:49.310 Whether I'm in Bangladesh or in Boston, apple falls. 00:28:49.310 --> 00:28:52.860 And I know that I can explain it by gravity. 00:28:52.860 --> 00:28:54.740 So that's the law which is, I would say, 00:28:54.740 --> 00:28:58.490 the physical law that is replicable, verifiable, 00:28:58.490 --> 00:29:00.050 everywhere you go. 00:29:00.050 --> 00:29:02.990 Now to take an example for water that I use 00:29:02.990 --> 00:29:06.320 is that water flows usually downhill because of the energy 00:29:06.320 --> 00:29:08.210 gradient. 00:29:08.210 --> 00:29:09.830 That's the physical law. 00:29:09.830 --> 00:29:13.240 But water also flows uphill. 00:29:13.240 --> 00:29:17.500 For example, water flows uphill in the American west to money. 00:29:17.500 --> 00:29:21.080 In my home on the second floor, because I put a pump. 00:29:21.080 --> 00:29:24.830 Otherwise, water cannot go to my second floor. 00:29:24.830 --> 00:29:26.540 By gravity, it should go down. 00:29:26.540 --> 00:29:29.390 How could I get water in my second floor bathroom? 00:29:29.390 --> 00:29:31.550 I get it because the water is pressurized. 00:29:31.550 --> 00:29:34.760 So I can create conditions that things can also 00:29:34.760 --> 00:29:38.140 violate the physical laws. 00:29:38.140 --> 00:29:43.290 Now when those physical laws are violated by human intentions, 00:29:43.290 --> 00:29:45.520 then you have a problem. 00:29:45.520 --> 00:29:48.820 Like, for example, Ganges was flowing fine. 00:29:48.820 --> 00:29:51.640 India decided to build a barrage. 00:29:51.640 --> 00:29:53.230 Barrage was not there. 00:29:53.230 --> 00:29:55.190 Now they can control it. 00:29:55.190 --> 00:29:57.790 So that's a physical control of water, 00:29:57.790 --> 00:30:01.310 which is violating the physical principles. 00:30:01.310 --> 00:30:04.010 And that's when our natural systems and human systems 00:30:04.010 --> 00:30:06.590 are coupled, and then it becomes a complex problem. 00:30:09.992 --> 00:30:12.146 Is it making sense? 00:30:12.146 --> 00:30:13.240 AUDIENCE: Yes, professor. 00:30:13.240 --> 00:30:15.250 PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right. 00:30:15.250 --> 00:30:16.792 So here I think I'll give you a quiz. 00:30:16.792 --> 00:30:17.792 And then we'll continue. 00:30:17.792 --> 00:30:19.390 So how many colors do you see here? 00:30:23.838 --> 00:30:25.880 Water diplomacy-- A Principled Pragmatic Approach 00:30:25.880 --> 00:30:29.290 to Govern and Manage Complex Societal Problems. 00:30:29.290 --> 00:30:30.490 How many colors? 00:30:30.490 --> 00:30:31.390 AUDIENCE: Three. 00:30:31.390 --> 00:30:31.870 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Three. 00:30:31.870 --> 00:30:32.380 Good. 00:30:32.380 --> 00:30:34.420 So remember three, three is important here. 00:30:34.420 --> 00:30:36.990 Then I will tell you something else. 00:30:36.990 --> 00:30:43.030 So water, diplomacy, principled, pragmatic, 00:30:43.030 --> 00:30:46.300 govern, complex, problems. 00:30:46.300 --> 00:30:48.550 So put all kinds of words-- and I'm 00:30:48.550 --> 00:30:51.190 sure you have heard many of these words many, many times 00:30:51.190 --> 00:30:52.220 in this class. 00:30:52.220 --> 00:30:55.790 So how many colors are here? 00:30:55.790 --> 00:30:56.610 AUDIENCE: Seven. 00:30:56.610 --> 00:30:57.570 AUDIENCE: Seven. 00:30:57.570 --> 00:30:57.780 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Seven. 00:30:57.780 --> 00:30:57.990 Good. 00:30:57.990 --> 00:30:58.657 AUDIENCE: Seven. 00:30:58.657 --> 00:31:01.380 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So you have three and then you have seven. 00:31:01.380 --> 00:31:04.140 So I'll just give you one basically clue. 00:31:04.140 --> 00:31:06.970 And then we'll discuss this at the end of the class. 00:31:06.970 --> 00:31:11.410 So if you really want to be very scientific about this, 00:31:11.410 --> 00:31:13.360 there are only three colors-- 00:31:13.360 --> 00:31:18.450 RBG, red, blue, and green. 00:31:18.450 --> 00:31:24.390 Then, everywhere you go, this seven color comes in. 00:31:24.390 --> 00:31:27.670 There are seven colors of rainbow. 00:31:27.670 --> 00:31:30.240 There are seven heavens. 00:31:30.240 --> 00:31:32.370 There are all kinds of seven came into the picture. 00:31:32.370 --> 00:31:34.500 Where did this three and seven then came from? 00:31:34.500 --> 00:31:35.600 I have only three color. 00:31:35.600 --> 00:31:38.520 Why do I have seven? 00:31:38.520 --> 00:31:42.750 Why do people say that there are seven colors in rainbow? 00:31:42.750 --> 00:31:45.265 In reality, if you go to the fundamental color, 00:31:45.265 --> 00:31:46.140 there are only three. 00:31:49.550 --> 00:31:53.270 Now if you go to your computer, and if you 00:31:53.270 --> 00:31:57.640 have a 24-bit machine, you probably 00:31:57.640 --> 00:32:01.730 have about on the order of eight million colors 00:32:01.730 --> 00:32:04.820 based on this three combination of RBG. 00:32:04.820 --> 00:32:09.470 So I can go from three to eight million. 00:32:09.470 --> 00:32:11.540 And now if you just give you a color palette 00:32:11.540 --> 00:32:14.140 and I tell you that, fine detail, what color is this, 00:32:14.140 --> 00:32:16.640 there is simply no way you can fine detail unless I tell you 00:32:16.640 --> 00:32:18.480 what those are. 00:32:18.480 --> 00:32:19.630 So what is my point here? 00:32:19.630 --> 00:32:23.710 The point is that you can take three things 00:32:23.710 --> 00:32:25.870 and put it in different ways and you 00:32:25.870 --> 00:32:29.830 can get millions and millions of combinations. 00:32:29.830 --> 00:32:32.290 Same thing is true for this necessary and sufficient 00:32:32.290 --> 00:32:34.340 conditions. 00:32:34.340 --> 00:32:41.010 I can take three variables, or three situations 00:32:41.010 --> 00:32:44.490 in a particular water conflict, and arrange it 00:32:44.490 --> 00:32:46.200 in different ways. 00:32:46.200 --> 00:32:49.480 I can get many, many combinations. 00:32:49.480 --> 00:32:51.570 So in this particular from three to seven 00:32:51.570 --> 00:32:54.570 to millions, that is the case, that means 00:32:54.570 --> 00:32:56.460 my necessary and sufficient conditions 00:32:56.460 --> 00:32:59.100 will never be able to be exhaustive. 00:32:59.100 --> 00:33:01.450 I cannot do it. 00:33:01.450 --> 00:33:03.850 Although, fundamentally, they are related maybe 00:33:03.850 --> 00:33:05.777 to only three. 00:33:05.777 --> 00:33:07.360 But I cannot come to that three level. 00:33:07.360 --> 00:33:10.730 If I come to that three level, it's too abstract. 00:33:10.730 --> 00:33:14.000 So that's why I put this basically mumbo jumbo stuff 00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:14.500 here. 00:33:14.500 --> 00:33:17.650 That basically you have only 26 letters, 00:33:17.650 --> 00:33:20.920 but you can create a Shakespeare to water diplomacy 00:33:20.920 --> 00:33:22.690 book and everything else in between 00:33:22.690 --> 00:33:25.270 by different combinations of letters. 00:33:25.270 --> 00:33:29.980 That is exactly the point with this interconnected systems. 00:33:29.980 --> 00:33:32.200 Your building blocks may be very few. 00:33:32.200 --> 00:33:34.180 But the way those building blocks 00:33:34.180 --> 00:33:36.100 are interconnected and interdependent 00:33:36.100 --> 00:33:37.900 may create different situations. 00:33:37.900 --> 00:33:40.390 And that has serious implications in the way 00:33:40.390 --> 00:33:41.780 we think about water. 00:33:41.780 --> 00:33:44.270 So let's go there here. 00:33:44.270 --> 00:33:47.890 So I'll start with this many faces of water crisis. 00:33:47.890 --> 00:33:51.190 If you think about it, what is water crisis? 00:33:51.190 --> 00:33:54.110 Water crisis, if you think about, 00:33:54.110 --> 00:33:57.010 they'll tell you that if you have 20 liters of water 00:33:57.010 --> 00:33:59.890 per person per day from an improved source, 00:33:59.890 --> 00:34:02.400 you have access to water. 00:34:02.400 --> 00:34:04.400 Just an estimate definition, and that definition 00:34:04.400 --> 00:34:06.140 is used globally. 00:34:06.140 --> 00:34:09.350 Based on that definition, there are about 760 million people 00:34:09.350 --> 00:34:12.370 who does not have access to water. 00:34:12.370 --> 00:34:13.870 So this is what we're trying to do-- 00:34:13.870 --> 00:34:16.719 these are our SDG. 00:34:16.719 --> 00:34:20.139 Now if you think about this, this is really not true. 00:34:20.139 --> 00:34:22.179 This 760 million is not true. 00:34:22.179 --> 00:34:23.510 Why it's not true? 00:34:23.510 --> 00:34:28.980 There are about two billion people lives in slums 00:34:28.980 --> 00:34:31.080 across the globe, from Dakar slum 00:34:31.080 --> 00:34:34.620 to Bombay slum to Nairobi slums, and from Brazil. 00:34:34.620 --> 00:34:38.850 And these people are not even counted. 00:34:38.850 --> 00:34:40.170 Why are not they counted? 00:34:40.170 --> 00:34:46.170 Because most of them are in illegal government land. 00:34:46.170 --> 00:34:48.190 So government does not provide them water. 00:34:48.190 --> 00:34:49.677 So they are not even counted. 00:34:49.677 --> 00:34:52.260 They don't have access to water or access to-- doesn't matter. 00:34:55.130 --> 00:34:57.320 So who are these 760 million people? 00:34:57.320 --> 00:34:59.920 These people are essentially people in rural villages 00:34:59.920 --> 00:35:02.750 in Africa and Asia. 00:35:02.750 --> 00:35:04.810 So this is one problem with access to water, 00:35:04.810 --> 00:35:06.370 definition of water crisis. 00:35:06.370 --> 00:35:10.425 On the other hand, when they talk about water scarcity, 00:35:10.425 --> 00:35:11.800 they have a different definition. 00:35:11.800 --> 00:35:12.460 What is this? 00:35:12.460 --> 00:35:14.470 This is fewer than 1,000 cubic meters 00:35:14.470 --> 00:35:17.280 of water per person per year. 00:35:17.280 --> 00:35:19.640 So if you're in the US, if you have 00:35:19.640 --> 00:35:22.190 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year, 00:35:22.190 --> 00:35:23.420 you are not water scarce. 00:35:23.420 --> 00:35:28.880 So Boston, for example, is not water scarce, but Nevada is. 00:35:28.880 --> 00:35:33.080 But as a whole, US is not. 00:35:33.080 --> 00:35:38.150 That translates to 2,740 liters per person per day. 00:35:38.150 --> 00:35:42.330 Look at the difference between 20 and 2,740-- 00:35:42.330 --> 00:35:44.760 huge difference. 00:35:44.760 --> 00:35:48.210 Do you have access to water, versus, are you water scarce. 00:35:48.210 --> 00:35:50.160 These are two different things. 00:35:50.160 --> 00:35:52.830 And we often then get confused which 00:35:52.830 --> 00:35:54.540 are you trying to address. 00:35:54.540 --> 00:35:58.437 If you go to SDG, it's not clear what they want to do. 00:35:58.437 --> 00:36:00.270 They have that thing is goal seven, I think, 00:36:00.270 --> 00:36:01.320 is related to water. 00:36:01.320 --> 00:36:03.150 And they have all kinds of things there. 00:36:03.150 --> 00:36:06.942 But it's so, I would say, nebulous that it's not clear 00:36:06.942 --> 00:36:08.650 exactly how they're going to measure this 00:36:08.650 --> 00:36:11.360 and how they're going to implement this. 00:36:11.360 --> 00:36:14.680 So access to water is not necessarily constrained 00:36:14.680 --> 00:36:17.230 by availability to water, really. 00:36:17.230 --> 00:36:19.630 It is something else. 00:36:19.630 --> 00:36:22.800 So when you want to talk about water crises, 00:36:22.800 --> 00:36:27.090 and your objective is to provide water to a slum in Bangladesh, 00:36:27.090 --> 00:36:30.030 it's a very different problem than saying 00:36:30.030 --> 00:36:32.520 that I want to have water for agriculture 00:36:32.520 --> 00:36:35.440 production in Bangladesh. 00:36:35.440 --> 00:36:37.700 These are two different problems. 00:36:37.700 --> 00:36:41.140 And oftentimes, we confuse them. 00:36:41.140 --> 00:36:43.600 And let's go to the next one. 00:36:43.600 --> 00:36:47.140 So what are the scientific facts versus societal problem here? 00:36:47.140 --> 00:36:48.970 More people die from unsafe water 00:36:48.970 --> 00:36:52.350 than from all forms of violence, including war. 00:36:52.350 --> 00:36:54.970 So these are statistical facts. 00:36:54.970 --> 00:36:56.620 There are also economic analysis. 00:36:56.620 --> 00:36:59.560 Every dollar invested in safe water and sanitation 00:36:59.560 --> 00:37:04.168 yields anywhere between $5 to $27 in economic benefits. 00:37:04.168 --> 00:37:05.960 You don't have to agree with that 5 or 27-- 00:37:05.960 --> 00:37:07.840 it's more than $1. 00:37:07.840 --> 00:37:10.090 We're not going to the economic argument here for now. 00:37:10.090 --> 00:37:11.890 But at least there are many, many studies 00:37:11.890 --> 00:37:13.390 that has done this. 00:37:13.390 --> 00:37:17.510 That if I invest $1 right now, I can get $5 to $27. 00:37:17.510 --> 00:37:19.180 So that means I can make more money. 00:37:19.180 --> 00:37:21.480 Instead, I'm not doing it. 00:37:21.480 --> 00:37:23.390 So what is the problem? 00:37:23.390 --> 00:37:26.840 And then I say, OK, 768 million people lack access to water. 00:37:26.840 --> 00:37:29.885 Two billion people are living in high water scarcity region. 00:37:32.390 --> 00:37:35.000 So how come we're not doing anything about this? 00:37:35.000 --> 00:37:37.670 And this is the statistics I had when I was a graduate student 00:37:37.670 --> 00:37:40.000 many, many years ago. 00:37:40.000 --> 00:37:41.890 How could you have a crisis, then 00:37:41.890 --> 00:37:43.362 you're not resolving this crisis? 00:37:43.362 --> 00:37:44.695 So that means it's not a crisis. 00:37:48.160 --> 00:37:50.060 So why it's not? 00:37:50.060 --> 00:37:51.440 Let's say that I am generous. 00:37:51.440 --> 00:37:54.660 I want to make 50 liters, not 20-- 00:37:54.660 --> 00:37:57.520 50 per person per day. 00:37:57.520 --> 00:38:02.520 Give me $120 billion, I can do it for everyone in the globe. 00:38:02.520 --> 00:38:03.990 Look at the global GDP-- 00:38:03.990 --> 00:38:06.360 $85 trillion. 00:38:06.360 --> 00:38:11.320 Only 0.14% of global GDP. 00:38:11.320 --> 00:38:12.930 So how come us as a global community, 00:38:12.930 --> 00:38:16.230 we're so much basically benevolent, so much generous, 00:38:16.230 --> 00:38:20.550 we cannot spend even 0.14% of our GDP to give water 00:38:20.550 --> 00:38:23.410 to everyone? 00:38:23.410 --> 00:38:26.510 So the problem is not economic. 00:38:26.510 --> 00:38:30.740 Problem is not that we don't have the technology. 00:38:30.740 --> 00:38:32.440 So how do I go then? 00:38:32.440 --> 00:38:33.940 So this is where I think maybe you 00:38:33.940 --> 00:38:38.750 can be a little bit more creative as water diplomats, 00:38:38.750 --> 00:38:40.900 that these are not really the argument that people 00:38:40.900 --> 00:38:41.400 are making. 00:38:41.400 --> 00:38:43.440 We need to make different types of arguments. 00:38:48.420 --> 00:38:50.000 So then it comes to, basically, this 00:38:50.000 --> 00:38:51.530 is the cover page of our book. 00:38:51.530 --> 00:38:53.030 So we are saying that, look, I think 00:38:53.030 --> 00:38:55.580 when you look at this problem, you need to look at this-- 00:38:55.580 --> 00:38:56.960 there are natural domain problem, 00:38:56.960 --> 00:38:58.880 there are societal domain problem. 00:38:58.880 --> 00:39:02.840 These have been studied forever, but they also 00:39:02.840 --> 00:39:05.700 happen in a politically real world. 00:39:05.700 --> 00:39:07.970 So in water diplomacy, what we are arguing 00:39:07.970 --> 00:39:09.398 for last several years that, look, 00:39:09.398 --> 00:39:11.190 you need to understand the natural problem, 00:39:11.190 --> 00:39:12.860 you need to understand the societal problem. 00:39:12.860 --> 00:39:14.990 You need to also understand that this is happening 00:39:14.990 --> 00:39:17.400 in a politically real world. 00:39:17.400 --> 00:39:19.460 So how do I combine these scientific knowledge 00:39:19.460 --> 00:39:22.100 and social knowledge in a politically real world 00:39:22.100 --> 00:39:26.060 where things will have some way to at least have some traction? 00:39:26.060 --> 00:39:28.580 I don't have to discuss this idea of, look, 00:39:28.580 --> 00:39:31.520 I only need 0.14% of GDP. 00:39:31.520 --> 00:39:33.530 Still, people do not have access to water. 00:39:33.530 --> 00:39:36.560 768 million people do not have access to water. 00:39:36.560 --> 00:39:38.430 These are all known problems. 00:39:38.430 --> 00:39:42.140 Go to any water literature right now, any water crisis, 00:39:42.140 --> 00:39:46.360 you'll see these statistics given everywhere. 00:39:46.360 --> 00:39:49.148 So nothing is being done then. 00:39:49.148 --> 00:39:51.190 Those are the type of questions we want to raise. 00:39:51.190 --> 00:39:52.990 And hopefully, you guys will have 00:39:52.990 --> 00:39:55.622 some clue when you are in your organization 00:39:55.622 --> 00:39:56.455 to have some impact. 00:40:00.480 --> 00:40:02.000 So the reason I think what we argue 00:40:02.000 --> 00:40:04.740 that is happening, that there are differences 00:40:04.740 --> 00:40:07.250 in political boundaries, knowledge, know-how, 00:40:07.250 --> 00:40:07.940 management. 00:40:07.940 --> 00:40:12.470 These are all basically happening at multiple scales. 00:40:12.470 --> 00:40:14.630 And these choices are particularly 00:40:14.630 --> 00:40:17.330 problematic because they cross boundaries. 00:40:17.330 --> 00:40:18.380 They have uncertainty. 00:40:18.380 --> 00:40:20.310 They have multiplicity of values. 00:40:20.310 --> 00:40:22.730 So these are not basically unknown. 00:40:22.730 --> 00:40:25.610 What we are basically hoping do it with our water diplomacy 00:40:25.610 --> 00:40:28.700 framework is that we want to explicitly recognize 00:40:28.700 --> 00:40:31.640 this and see how to at least adjust some of it 00:40:31.640 --> 00:40:35.150 so that we can be a little bit better than what 00:40:35.150 --> 00:40:36.497 we were yesterday. 00:40:39.360 --> 00:40:41.850 See, I may not be here for another 30 years. 00:40:41.850 --> 00:40:46.840 So I could not see this changing very much in 30 years. 00:40:46.840 --> 00:40:49.360 In 30 years, we still had the same number 00:40:49.360 --> 00:40:53.200 of people dying out of this lack of sanitation and water 00:40:53.200 --> 00:40:54.930 across the globe. 00:40:54.930 --> 00:40:58.880 So are we basically dumb or we are just too insensitive? 00:41:03.740 --> 00:41:06.620 So this is where essentially we are standing here. 00:41:06.620 --> 00:41:09.733 And in a present, we came from past, 00:41:09.733 --> 00:41:11.150 but we don't know exactly where we 00:41:11.150 --> 00:41:13.910 came because past is-- although it came, happened 00:41:13.910 --> 00:41:16.940 once, the interpretation of past could be quite 00:41:16.940 --> 00:41:20.900 different because, for example, if you think about how I came, 00:41:20.900 --> 00:41:24.080 where I am right now, if you ask my mother 00:41:24.080 --> 00:41:27.740 or my wife or my daughter, they'll have different stories. 00:41:27.740 --> 00:41:29.870 And some of these stories will be probably similar, 00:41:29.870 --> 00:41:32.010 but it cannot be exactly the same. 00:41:32.010 --> 00:41:34.430 So that means our understanding of the past 00:41:34.430 --> 00:41:38.550 is also really colored by our own experience, 00:41:38.550 --> 00:41:41.510 our own perspectives, and the way we have seen it. 00:41:41.510 --> 00:41:43.250 The problem, even, is that future 00:41:43.250 --> 00:41:45.140 could be even more unknown because we have 00:41:45.140 --> 00:41:47.100 no clue how it will happen. 00:41:47.100 --> 00:41:49.690 But only thing we have is past. 00:41:49.690 --> 00:41:52.650 So how do I create water management situations 00:41:52.650 --> 00:41:57.723 by looking at the past, knowing that future is unknown? 00:41:57.723 --> 00:41:59.140 So this is the fundamental puzzle. 00:41:59.140 --> 00:42:01.740 It's a scientific puzzle, as well as social puzzle. 00:42:01.740 --> 00:42:04.133 This is where you need to basically-- the question 00:42:04.133 --> 00:42:04.800 you are raising. 00:42:04.800 --> 00:42:08.920 OK, in 1960, they didn't know about climate change. 00:42:08.920 --> 00:42:11.270 I don't know what will happen next 50 years? 00:42:11.270 --> 00:42:15.040 We did not know that COVID-19 will come in 2020. 00:42:15.040 --> 00:42:18.060 It did and it changed the life significantly. 00:42:18.060 --> 00:42:21.010 So those are unknown. 00:42:21.010 --> 00:42:23.280 And then we need to have somewhere to essentially deal 00:42:23.280 --> 00:42:23.780 with it. 00:42:23.780 --> 00:42:25.640 What is the next COVID going to come? 00:42:25.640 --> 00:42:27.100 We don't know. 00:42:27.100 --> 00:42:29.080 So what does that tell you? 00:42:29.080 --> 00:42:31.930 What tells you, most of our understanding from science 00:42:31.930 --> 00:42:33.550 is from physics. 00:42:33.550 --> 00:42:36.430 So what physics tells us that with classical physics, 00:42:36.430 --> 00:42:38.110 I can essentially describe the world 00:42:38.110 --> 00:42:41.710 in a very interesting and very predictable way. 00:42:41.710 --> 00:42:43.510 But the problem with complex system 00:42:43.510 --> 00:42:46.420 is that they are not easily describable by classical 00:42:46.420 --> 00:42:49.840 physics or quantum mechanics. 00:42:49.840 --> 00:42:53.030 World is not deterministic, world is also not random. 00:42:53.030 --> 00:42:54.753 It is somewhere in between. 00:42:54.753 --> 00:42:56.170 That's what the complex system is. 00:42:56.170 --> 00:42:58.810 Complex systems argues that this is not 00:42:58.810 --> 00:43:00.970 a purely predictable system. 00:43:00.970 --> 00:43:04.630 At the same time, it is not a random system either. 00:43:04.630 --> 00:43:07.420 So everything that you've learned in school, now 00:43:07.420 --> 00:43:09.820 is really not becoming very useful, 00:43:09.820 --> 00:43:12.250 because everything you learned is essentially either based 00:43:12.250 --> 00:43:15.880 on some classical physics, which is deterministic equations, 00:43:15.880 --> 00:43:18.220 or statistics. 00:43:18.220 --> 00:43:20.440 But we're arguing that for complex system, 00:43:20.440 --> 00:43:21.940 neither would work. 00:43:21.940 --> 00:43:24.250 You need a combination of these two. 00:43:24.250 --> 00:43:26.110 Then you come with this. 00:43:26.110 --> 00:43:30.010 Basically, two scientists in 1973, they were telling you 00:43:30.010 --> 00:43:32.560 "The search for scientific basis for confronting 00:43:32.560 --> 00:43:36.330 problems of social policy is bound to fail." 00:43:36.330 --> 00:43:37.970 And this is a very classical paper 00:43:37.970 --> 00:43:41.565 written in 1973, cited over 10,000 times now. 00:43:41.565 --> 00:43:44.075 DR. GAIN: Is this "wicked" problem? 00:43:44.075 --> 00:43:46.610 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, it is same thing, same group. 00:43:46.610 --> 00:43:49.520 So they were very brilliant, two young assistant professor 00:43:49.520 --> 00:43:52.640 from Berkeley in 1973. 00:43:52.640 --> 00:43:55.130 So what they were telling me, when 00:43:55.130 --> 00:43:57.022 you are confronted with complex problems-- 00:43:57.022 --> 00:43:58.730 we do not talk "wicked" because "wicked," 00:43:58.730 --> 00:43:59.870 I don't like this word. 00:43:59.870 --> 00:44:01.010 But they use "wicked." 00:44:01.010 --> 00:44:02.900 But "wicked" essentially in their term 00:44:02.900 --> 00:44:05.150 is very similar to what we call "complex." 00:44:05.150 --> 00:44:07.340 And these are interconnected problems. 00:44:07.340 --> 00:44:08.960 These are interdependent problems. 00:44:08.960 --> 00:44:11.390 There is simply no way to do cause and effect, 00:44:11.390 --> 00:44:14.690 and particularly when there are social policy involved. 00:44:14.690 --> 00:44:18.020 Then came this lady from here, Wellesley. 00:44:18.020 --> 00:44:21.350 She was an economics professor and chair. 00:44:21.350 --> 00:44:24.507 She said, you can't take politics out of this analysis. 00:44:24.507 --> 00:44:25.590 Now you have three things. 00:44:25.590 --> 00:44:29.680 You have physical systems, your social system, 00:44:29.680 --> 00:44:31.510 your political systems. 00:44:31.510 --> 00:44:33.640 And what we argue in water diplomacy, 00:44:33.640 --> 00:44:35.623 we try to mix them up. 00:44:35.623 --> 00:44:37.290 And we say that all three are important. 00:44:37.290 --> 00:44:39.082 And you need to be careful about all three. 00:44:39.082 --> 00:44:41.230 You just cannot take one or the other. 00:44:41.230 --> 00:44:46.090 And then your solution is not going to be very sustainable. 00:44:46.090 --> 00:44:48.950 DR. GAIN: So here, how is the difference 00:44:48.950 --> 00:44:52.460 between the social system and the political system? 00:44:52.460 --> 00:44:55.640 Sometimes-- 00:44:55.640 --> 00:44:59.150 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, that is a good point. 00:44:59.150 --> 00:45:01.160 You have to go then to our diagram here. 00:45:01.160 --> 00:45:03.840 Let me see if I can go back. 00:45:03.840 --> 00:45:06.380 So I did not use "social." 00:45:06.380 --> 00:45:07.755 I said "societal," so societal we 00:45:07.755 --> 00:45:10.047 are saying that there are only three things, because we 00:45:10.047 --> 00:45:11.300 want to make life simpler. 00:45:11.300 --> 00:45:15.590 We said we put governance, assets, and norms and values 00:45:15.590 --> 00:45:16.280 as societal. 00:45:16.280 --> 00:45:18.690 We are keeping political as a different entity. 00:45:18.690 --> 00:45:20.630 So this separation in many places 00:45:20.630 --> 00:45:23.330 you may find to be not really that clean. 00:45:23.330 --> 00:45:25.730 You can put politics also in societal domain. 00:45:25.730 --> 00:45:26.645 That would be fine. 00:45:26.645 --> 00:45:28.020 But then you need to be explicit. 00:45:28.020 --> 00:45:29.420 But here we are explicit. 00:45:29.420 --> 00:45:32.270 We are saying that for us, when we talk about natural systems, 00:45:32.270 --> 00:45:35.850 we are talking about quality, quantity, and ecosystems-- 00:45:35.850 --> 00:45:39.330 measurable, quantifiable, more or less. 00:45:39.330 --> 00:45:40.890 When we talk about societal systems, 00:45:40.890 --> 00:45:43.590 we talk about governance and we are keeping it broad. 00:45:43.590 --> 00:45:47.280 Governance could be your NGO to your government 00:45:47.280 --> 00:45:52.530 to basically your water board in Pakistan or Bangladesh. 00:45:52.530 --> 00:45:55.540 Norms and values could be also quite broad. 00:45:55.540 --> 00:45:56.950 It could be your cultural values. 00:45:56.950 --> 00:45:58.582 It could be religious values of water. 00:45:58.582 --> 00:45:59.790 So we are keeping them broad. 00:45:59.790 --> 00:46:01.440 Assets, it's not only money. 00:46:01.440 --> 00:46:03.360 It could be human assets too. 00:46:03.360 --> 00:46:06.570 So we are being very careful when we coin these terms, 00:46:06.570 --> 00:46:08.820 we spend a lot of time thinking about those. 00:46:08.820 --> 00:46:11.430 So we kept them in a way that we don't 00:46:11.430 --> 00:46:13.590 need any more than these six. 00:46:13.590 --> 00:46:16.980 And we have asked this question to many of these water 00:46:16.980 --> 00:46:18.990 diplomacy workshop attendees that, look, 00:46:18.990 --> 00:46:20.760 do I need anything else. 00:46:20.760 --> 00:46:22.590 Have we missed anything? 00:46:22.590 --> 00:46:25.300 Tell us something that we missed? 00:46:25.300 --> 00:46:27.420 So maybe we will ask you the same question. 00:46:27.420 --> 00:46:29.610 Have we missed any variables that you 00:46:29.610 --> 00:46:33.600 need to include to talk about water conflicts? 00:46:33.600 --> 00:46:36.450 Those are not there in this particular figure. 00:46:39.060 --> 00:46:41.908 Think of a variable or an actor or an institution. 00:46:41.908 --> 00:46:43.866 We are saying that everything is included here. 00:46:50.190 --> 00:46:51.180 Maybe think about it. 00:46:51.180 --> 00:46:52.722 Maybe before the end of the semester, 00:46:52.722 --> 00:46:55.110 you can let Animesh know. 00:46:55.110 --> 00:46:57.332 Because these are big claims we're making. 00:46:57.332 --> 00:46:59.040 Look, I think you don't do anything else. 00:46:59.040 --> 00:47:01.080 These six are good enough, because we 00:47:01.080 --> 00:47:03.960 have defined this sufficiently broad 00:47:03.960 --> 00:47:06.750 so that you can go and dig deeper into this. 00:47:09.620 --> 00:47:10.130 All right. 00:47:16.800 --> 00:47:18.845 So those essentially six now, we are 00:47:18.845 --> 00:47:20.220 saying that we can basically even 00:47:20.220 --> 00:47:22.303 write it down in a little bit more systematic way. 00:47:22.303 --> 00:47:24.900 We're talking about variables and processes that will 00:47:24.900 --> 00:47:26.490 come from the natural domain. 00:47:26.490 --> 00:47:30.980 Actors and institutions will come from societal domain. 00:47:30.980 --> 00:47:34.020 And then you have values, interests, and tools. 00:47:34.020 --> 00:47:35.730 And we go in that particular order. 00:47:35.730 --> 00:47:38.780 So values, so this you need to be very, very careful. 00:47:38.780 --> 00:47:40.940 Because what ends up happening in most cases, 00:47:40.940 --> 00:47:43.070 since I came from a totally different domain-- 00:47:43.070 --> 00:47:44.790 when I was doing my engineering stuff, 00:47:44.790 --> 00:47:46.498 we were particularly interested in tools. 00:47:48.818 --> 00:47:50.860 And then we basically started working with Larry. 00:47:50.860 --> 00:47:52.527 And we found out that there is something 00:47:52.527 --> 00:47:54.280 called interests and positions. 00:47:54.280 --> 00:47:56.620 And then we need to talk about values. 00:47:56.620 --> 00:48:00.810 So now we get into really entangled mess. 00:48:00.810 --> 00:48:04.450 Then you have problems, policies, and politics. 00:48:04.450 --> 00:48:08.260 What we argue that these things have to come into place. 00:48:08.260 --> 00:48:11.290 You have a problem, you have policies, you have politics. 00:48:11.290 --> 00:48:14.820 Unless these three are aligned properly, 00:48:14.820 --> 00:48:17.310 you're not going to get a solution that will be basically 00:48:17.310 --> 00:48:19.230 resilient and sustainable. 00:48:19.230 --> 00:48:20.970 Just think about what happened, really. 00:48:20.970 --> 00:48:23.690 Between January 20 and then today's April 27-- 00:48:27.640 --> 00:48:28.930 just three months. 00:48:28.930 --> 00:48:31.090 In three months, we have already vaccinated 00:48:31.090 --> 00:48:33.850 about 200 million people. 00:48:33.850 --> 00:48:35.730 That was not the case in December/January. 00:48:35.730 --> 00:48:36.660 What happened? 00:48:36.660 --> 00:48:38.350 Nothing much changed in the US. 00:48:38.350 --> 00:48:40.493 Few people change in White House. 00:48:40.493 --> 00:48:42.660 Other than that, most of the actors and institutions 00:48:42.660 --> 00:48:44.690 are the same. 00:48:44.690 --> 00:48:46.930 So some of the problems, policies, and politics 00:48:46.930 --> 00:48:48.580 need to align properly. 00:48:48.580 --> 00:48:50.920 If it does, things can explode or things 00:48:50.920 --> 00:48:54.500 can get totally basically out of control. 00:48:54.500 --> 00:48:59.230 So big-time thinking about is basically 00:48:59.230 --> 00:49:02.425 just the difference between January 20 and, say, April 27. 00:49:06.120 --> 00:49:09.510 So this multiplicity of choices, then, what it does really, 00:49:09.510 --> 00:49:12.270 this essentially fundamentally challenged this idea 00:49:12.270 --> 00:49:15.670 of finding optimal solutions. 00:49:15.670 --> 00:49:19.760 This is what basically Rittel and Webber found in 1973. 00:49:19.760 --> 00:49:21.320 They were talking about that when 00:49:21.320 --> 00:49:24.680 you have a social problem-- 00:49:24.680 --> 00:49:27.800 we are calling them now coupled natural human system problem. 00:49:27.800 --> 00:49:30.350 To look for optimal solution is impossible. 00:49:32.825 --> 00:49:34.450 So that's the recognition we must have, 00:49:34.450 --> 00:49:35.800 because this is the recognition. 00:49:35.800 --> 00:49:37.570 At least, oftentimes, we do not have 00:49:37.570 --> 00:49:39.940 when we are coming from a technical domain. 00:49:39.940 --> 00:49:42.580 From a technical domain, we want to find an optimal solution 00:49:42.580 --> 00:49:43.930 very quickly. 00:49:43.930 --> 00:49:45.640 And optimal solutions are possible 00:49:45.640 --> 00:49:48.040 for well-structured systems. 00:49:50.920 --> 00:49:54.840 I can find the optimal temperature for my room. 00:49:54.840 --> 00:49:57.180 There's no problem, because I can put enough basically 00:49:57.180 --> 00:50:01.420 heating and air conditioning and thermometer to get it done. 00:50:01.420 --> 00:50:06.540 But if I want to do optimal temperature for city of Boston, 00:50:06.540 --> 00:50:10.180 it cannot be done, because city of Boston is open. 00:50:10.180 --> 00:50:13.330 Now things are coming back and forth from all kinds-- 00:50:13.330 --> 00:50:18.040 maybe from Connecticut or from Maine or from Canada, 00:50:18.040 --> 00:50:19.590 where the cold air is coming in. 00:50:19.590 --> 00:50:20.843 So I cannot make this. 00:50:20.843 --> 00:50:22.260 But on the other hand, in my room, 00:50:22.260 --> 00:50:25.690 I can do it because the room is bounded. 00:50:25.690 --> 00:50:27.880 So basically it has boundaries. 00:50:27.880 --> 00:50:29.340 It can be insulated. 00:50:29.340 --> 00:50:30.670 It can be done. 00:50:30.670 --> 00:50:33.870 So if the system is bounded, system is well-structured, 00:50:33.870 --> 00:50:37.650 system is well-defined, optimal solutions are OK. 00:50:37.650 --> 00:50:40.920 But in most natural systems, they are not. 00:50:40.920 --> 00:50:45.598 In almost all coupled systems, it's impossible. 00:50:45.598 --> 00:50:47.890 When the natural systems and human systems are coupled, 00:50:47.890 --> 00:50:49.240 then you cannot find it. 00:50:49.240 --> 00:50:52.610 Then you need to be contingent in context. 00:50:52.610 --> 00:50:54.710 Then you say, fine, then what did I learn. 00:50:54.710 --> 00:50:57.050 If everything depends on the context and everything 00:50:57.050 --> 00:50:59.060 is contingent, then why come to school? 00:50:59.060 --> 00:51:01.190 Just go and do it. 00:51:01.190 --> 00:51:04.460 That's where I think will give you some clue with maybe water 00:51:04.460 --> 00:51:07.160 diplomacy and principled pragmatism, how that can 00:51:07.160 --> 00:51:09.020 be done, although they're contingent, 00:51:09.020 --> 00:51:11.738 although they're contextual. 00:51:11.738 --> 00:51:13.280 So water diplomacy, then, what is it? 00:51:13.280 --> 00:51:15.500 So scientific method, I said that, in general, it's 00:51:15.500 --> 00:51:16.103 objective. 00:51:16.103 --> 00:51:18.020 So we'll talk about a little bit more closely. 00:51:18.020 --> 00:51:22.940 So policy and decision-making is subjective. 00:51:22.940 --> 00:51:25.400 Whether you like it or not, that's what it is. 00:51:25.400 --> 00:51:28.763 So whether your political bias is Biden versus Trump 00:51:28.763 --> 00:51:30.680 [INAUDIBLE],, you're seeing that policy-making 00:51:30.680 --> 00:51:31.950 and decision-making. 00:51:31.950 --> 00:51:33.380 So this is going to be subjective, 00:51:33.380 --> 00:51:35.990 whether we like it or not. 00:51:35.990 --> 00:51:39.653 Then we are seeing the scientific facts are objective. 00:51:39.653 --> 00:51:41.570 Maybe, I think there are nuances that we don't 00:51:41.570 --> 00:51:43.880 want to get into right now. 00:51:43.880 --> 00:51:47.640 Social facts are subjective. 00:51:47.640 --> 00:51:49.780 So I'm making a sharp distinction between these two 00:51:49.780 --> 00:51:50.280 things. 00:51:50.280 --> 00:51:53.430 So there is a scientific fact and there is a social fact. 00:51:53.430 --> 00:51:56.240 When we talked about this idea of alternative facts, 00:51:56.240 --> 00:51:59.720 where people got confused is that they were mixing it up. 00:52:02.830 --> 00:52:05.910 Social facts are, basically, there are alternative facts. 00:52:05.910 --> 00:52:08.370 Scientific fact, there is no alternative facts. 00:52:08.370 --> 00:52:13.680 If I take my temperature, if I find it to be 98.4, it is 98.4. 00:52:13.680 --> 00:52:16.920 Maybe with another thermometer, you can get 98.5. 00:52:16.920 --> 00:52:20.288 It cannot be 200 degrees. 00:52:20.288 --> 00:52:21.455 So that's a scientific fact. 00:52:21.455 --> 00:52:24.950 And I said, this is objective, replicable, reproducible. 00:52:24.950 --> 00:52:30.090 Social fact would be how I feel about the temperature. 00:52:30.090 --> 00:52:33.010 I may feel perfectly fine. 00:52:33.010 --> 00:52:38.780 And Larry may feel perfectly hot with the same temperature. 00:52:38.780 --> 00:52:42.110 But the thermometer is measuring same temperature. 00:52:42.110 --> 00:52:44.970 How both of us feels is quite different. 00:52:44.970 --> 00:52:46.160 That's the social fact. 00:52:46.160 --> 00:52:49.310 That simply cannot be objectively defined. 00:52:49.310 --> 00:52:51.330 And you don't have to. 00:52:51.330 --> 00:52:54.350 But in decision-making, both are important. 00:52:54.350 --> 00:53:00.000 I just cannot use scientific fact to make decisions which 00:53:00.000 --> 00:53:02.220 will affect human beings. 00:53:02.220 --> 00:53:03.750 I can do this for machines. 00:53:06.380 --> 00:53:08.120 But when I bring in human beings, 00:53:08.120 --> 00:53:11.390 when they have emotions, they have agencies, 00:53:11.390 --> 00:53:15.170 they have temptations, I cannot use just scientific facts 00:53:15.170 --> 00:53:18.050 and assume that it will work. 00:53:18.050 --> 00:53:19.650 As a result, now, water diplomacy 00:53:19.650 --> 00:53:22.190 is both subjective and objective. 00:53:22.190 --> 00:53:24.500 So this is essentially very problematic 00:53:24.500 --> 00:53:26.000 in terms of implementation. 00:53:26.000 --> 00:53:27.680 But this is also very good because this 00:53:27.680 --> 00:53:30.620 is the way you'll keep your job for the next 50 years, 00:53:30.620 --> 00:53:32.540 because not anybody can do it that well. 00:53:35.087 --> 00:53:37.670 So that's the reason I think-- so Larry is doing for 50 years. 00:53:37.670 --> 00:53:39.250 I hope I can do it too. 00:53:39.250 --> 00:53:42.645 For another 20 years, I'll tell you what to do. 00:53:42.645 --> 00:53:44.020 And that is exactly where I think 00:53:44.020 --> 00:53:46.630 the brilliance and the ingenuity will come in. 00:53:46.630 --> 00:53:49.360 That this is not easily separable. 00:53:49.360 --> 00:53:51.970 I cannot just take objective facts and claim that I'll be 00:53:51.970 --> 00:53:54.130 able to do water management very well. 00:53:54.130 --> 00:53:56.060 Neither can I do subjectively. 00:53:56.060 --> 00:53:59.020 So if you can combine these two in some creative ways, 00:53:59.020 --> 00:54:02.202 you'll have credibility and you'll be able to do it. 00:54:02.202 --> 00:54:03.520 AUDIENCE: Professor Shafik. 00:54:03.520 --> 00:54:04.780 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yeah, please. 00:54:04.780 --> 00:54:06.610 AUDIENCE: Can you repeat again the example 00:54:06.610 --> 00:54:10.330 of the temperature, which is to illustrate 00:54:10.330 --> 00:54:13.315 the difference between the subjective and objective? 00:54:13.315 --> 00:54:15.550 PROFESSOR ISLAM: OK, so just one second here. 00:54:15.550 --> 00:54:17.030 Let me see here. 00:54:17.030 --> 00:54:20.135 So objective facts would be, I would 00:54:20.135 --> 00:54:21.760 say-- we will go this into a little bit 00:54:21.760 --> 00:54:22.760 more detail [INAUDIBLE]. 00:54:22.760 --> 00:54:25.760 So objective fact, I am defining it very sharply. 00:54:25.760 --> 00:54:27.820 So in my definition, objective fact 00:54:27.820 --> 00:54:32.650 is based on scientific matters which are observable. 00:54:32.650 --> 00:54:34.360 It has to be observable. 00:54:34.360 --> 00:54:37.240 If it is not observable, so observable by how. 00:54:37.240 --> 00:54:39.940 So then basically if you really want to be very sure, 00:54:39.940 --> 00:54:41.980 you said we have five senses. 00:54:41.980 --> 00:54:45.500 If these are not sensed by your five senses, it doesn't exist. 00:54:45.500 --> 00:54:46.930 So I'll tell you, although I don't 00:54:46.930 --> 00:54:52.270 want to basically make our friend Pinker in other school 00:54:52.270 --> 00:54:53.020 on the Red Line. 00:54:53.020 --> 00:54:57.250 He's a cognitive psychologist at Harvard. 00:54:57.250 --> 00:55:01.000 So he would tell you really everything else that you cannot 00:55:01.000 --> 00:55:04.120 sense or can't observe doesn't exist. 00:55:04.120 --> 00:55:08.140 So trust-- it doesn't exist. 00:55:08.140 --> 00:55:11.020 Trust simply is not measurable. 00:55:11.020 --> 00:55:13.660 He has a whole book called "Enlightenment." 00:55:13.660 --> 00:55:16.840 700 pages with hundreds of thousands of graphs. 00:55:16.840 --> 00:55:19.840 And he's showing that with enlightenment we have basically 00:55:19.840 --> 00:55:21.310 done remarkably well. 00:55:21.310 --> 00:55:23.620 Because in all measures that he shows-- 00:55:23.620 --> 00:55:25.840 of course, he's very selective in showing 00:55:25.840 --> 00:55:27.130 that everything has improved. 00:55:27.130 --> 00:55:29.530 Like, our infant mortality has improved. 00:55:29.530 --> 00:55:31.660 Our war has gone down. 00:55:31.660 --> 00:55:33.430 People dying from war has gone down. 00:55:33.430 --> 00:55:35.720 People dying out of hunger has gone down. 00:55:35.720 --> 00:55:37.630 So we are doing well. 00:55:37.630 --> 00:55:42.100 But in that book, trust was not even mentioned once. 00:55:42.100 --> 00:55:43.940 Because he doesn't care really about trust. 00:55:43.940 --> 00:55:47.740 So for him, it's a scientific fact. 00:55:47.740 --> 00:55:50.610 Unless it is observable, it's not scientific. 00:55:50.610 --> 00:55:53.190 Social fact now, I feel bad. 00:55:53.190 --> 00:55:56.460 And we have too many people suffering from mental disease 00:55:56.460 --> 00:55:57.390 right now. 00:55:57.390 --> 00:56:00.570 Mental disease will become the most pandemic really 00:56:00.570 --> 00:56:05.510 in the next 20 years, he doesn't want to talk about this. 00:56:05.510 --> 00:56:07.430 So funny, those are subjective judgment. 00:56:07.430 --> 00:56:08.878 You figure it out. 00:56:08.878 --> 00:56:09.920 So that's the difference. 00:56:09.920 --> 00:56:12.060 He thinks those are not observable-- 00:56:12.060 --> 00:56:13.470 doesn't exist. 00:56:13.470 --> 00:56:16.130 So that's a very sharp, it's a very crude definition, 00:56:16.130 --> 00:56:18.350 but that's the way I try to do this also. 00:56:18.350 --> 00:56:21.830 So I say subjective is meaning that these are not 00:56:21.830 --> 00:56:24.210 easily verifiable. 00:56:24.210 --> 00:56:28.210 But I do disagree with him that, no, they exist. 00:56:28.210 --> 00:56:31.280 I may not be able to measure them, but they're real. 00:56:33.970 --> 00:56:36.400 He will say that they're not even real. 00:56:36.400 --> 00:56:40.725 They're just a fiction of your imagination. 00:56:40.725 --> 00:56:42.060 AUDIENCE: Thank you very much. 00:56:42.060 --> 00:56:42.885 Thank you. 00:56:42.885 --> 00:56:45.070 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So that brings us to this. 00:56:45.070 --> 00:56:46.950 I think this you will like now. 00:56:46.950 --> 00:56:49.380 So here, I want you to look at these two pictures. 00:56:49.380 --> 00:56:51.040 And I thought it was very nice. 00:56:51.040 --> 00:56:54.420 So there is a difference between myth and fact. 00:56:54.420 --> 00:56:56.610 Look at this first figure. 00:56:56.610 --> 00:57:02.870 And then remember what this individual is doing. 00:57:02.870 --> 00:57:05.540 This individual now remembers myths. 00:57:05.540 --> 00:57:09.690 Although you have given him 12 facts. 00:57:09.690 --> 00:57:11.650 So what is the problem? 00:57:11.650 --> 00:57:15.210 The problem is that our cognitive ability 00:57:15.210 --> 00:57:19.660 to process information is not really very good. 00:57:19.660 --> 00:57:21.360 So if you give me a lot of information-- 00:57:21.360 --> 00:57:22.540 it's happening with COVID. 00:57:22.540 --> 00:57:24.490 If you think about COVID clearly, 00:57:24.490 --> 00:57:26.503 people are so confused. 00:57:26.503 --> 00:57:27.920 It's not that people are confused. 00:57:27.920 --> 00:57:31.915 People just simply cannot separate it out, 00:57:31.915 --> 00:57:34.040 because you are giving me so many facts and so many 00:57:34.040 --> 00:57:38.510 conflicting facts, so ultimately you remember the myth that most 00:57:38.510 --> 00:57:40.490 likely I'll die. 00:57:40.490 --> 00:57:42.320 Although the probability of you dying 00:57:42.320 --> 00:57:46.750 is extremely low, even if you get it. 00:57:46.750 --> 00:57:49.380 On the other hand, if you can give myth 00:57:49.380 --> 00:57:53.640 with some carefully constructed facts, 00:57:53.640 --> 00:57:56.630 you do remember the fact. 00:57:56.630 --> 00:57:58.280 So the argument that I'll make here 00:57:58.280 --> 00:58:00.500 is that our challenge is to essentially, 00:58:00.500 --> 00:58:02.990 when I'm trying to debunk some of this myth 00:58:02.990 --> 00:58:06.590 or some of the social facts, to create scientific facts. 00:58:06.590 --> 00:58:09.260 Those are easily digestible to the audience 00:58:09.260 --> 00:58:12.130 that I'm giving it to. 00:58:12.130 --> 00:58:13.560 But that's very, very powerful. 00:58:13.560 --> 00:58:16.170 Because otherwise, I can keep talking about this climate 00:58:16.170 --> 00:58:16.890 change. 00:58:16.890 --> 00:58:18.990 In general, public does not understand 00:58:18.990 --> 00:58:20.880 what I'm talking about. 00:58:20.880 --> 00:58:24.580 As a result, they think it's a hoax. 00:58:24.580 --> 00:58:28.080 So what does that mean really is this. 00:58:28.080 --> 00:58:32.110 When you're trying to replace a myth from somebody's mind, 00:58:32.110 --> 00:58:34.390 you need to replace it by some facts. 00:58:34.390 --> 00:58:39.650 Otherwise, it will get replaced by another myth. 00:58:39.650 --> 00:58:42.380 So the question is basically and the politicians 00:58:42.380 --> 00:58:47.190 are extremely powerful really in basically replacing myths. 00:58:47.190 --> 00:58:50.730 And myth are not really easily discounted. 00:58:50.730 --> 00:58:54.808 I don't believe that myth can be easily taken out. 00:58:54.808 --> 00:58:55.600 They will be there. 00:58:55.600 --> 00:58:59.050 The challenge is to create myth those are little 00:58:59.050 --> 00:59:03.080 bit more scientifically valid. 00:59:03.080 --> 00:59:04.590 If you can do this, then I think you 00:59:04.590 --> 00:59:05.840 have an alternative narrative. 00:59:05.840 --> 00:59:07.965 Otherwise, you don't have an alternative narrative. 00:59:07.965 --> 00:59:12.050 You have no way to make any influence in the policy-making 00:59:12.050 --> 00:59:15.140 and the decision-making. 00:59:15.140 --> 00:59:18.522 So that brings us to something that I like is that-- 00:59:18.522 --> 00:59:20.980 you remember when you talk about water diplomacy framework, 00:59:20.980 --> 00:59:23.230 we did not say that this is model. 00:59:23.230 --> 00:59:25.240 It is not even a theory right now. 00:59:25.240 --> 00:59:26.790 So what is a framework? 00:59:26.790 --> 00:59:29.210 Framework is something that is it's 00:59:29.210 --> 00:59:33.850 some general ideas and general relationships that 00:59:33.850 --> 00:59:36.580 gives you to address a particular problem 00:59:36.580 --> 00:59:38.120 in a particular way. 00:59:38.120 --> 00:59:39.340 So that is the framework. 00:59:39.340 --> 00:59:41.840 When the framework get tested over time, 00:59:41.840 --> 00:59:44.230 so we are doing it for many, many years right now, 00:59:44.230 --> 00:59:45.940 gradually it will become a theory. 00:59:45.940 --> 00:59:50.280 Eventually it will become a model and predictable. 00:59:50.280 --> 00:59:53.000 So right now, we'll put on water diplomacy-- 00:59:53.000 --> 00:59:55.110 principled pragmatism as framework. 00:59:55.110 --> 00:59:58.880 This framework allows us to explain those things 00:59:58.880 --> 00:59:59.780 in certain ways. 00:59:59.780 --> 01:00:02.510 It allows us to intervene in certain ways. 01:00:02.510 --> 01:00:04.970 When it becomes a theory, then you just 01:00:04.970 --> 01:00:08.570 basically like evolution. 01:00:08.570 --> 01:00:10.780 Evolution is a theory. 01:00:10.780 --> 01:00:14.910 Newton's law is a law. 01:00:14.910 --> 01:00:17.800 Newton's law is not a theory, it's not a framework. 01:00:17.800 --> 01:00:20.040 So there is a distinction between framework, theory, 01:00:20.040 --> 01:00:21.440 and model. 01:00:21.440 --> 01:00:24.180 So model is at the level that you are the Newton's law. 01:00:24.180 --> 01:00:27.800 So things doesn't matter really whether I'm in Boston 01:00:27.800 --> 01:00:28.970 or I'm in Brazil. 01:00:28.970 --> 01:00:32.460 Newton's laws applies. 01:00:32.460 --> 01:00:33.880 So that is what the difference is. 01:00:33.880 --> 01:00:37.910 So if you can develop certain law, 01:00:37.910 --> 01:00:42.180 those are context-independent, then you have a law. 01:00:42.180 --> 01:00:43.710 So do I have a law for water? 01:00:43.710 --> 01:00:45.390 No I don't. 01:00:45.390 --> 01:00:48.060 I don't have a water diplomacy law. 01:00:48.060 --> 01:00:50.610 We have a water diplomacy framework. 01:00:50.610 --> 01:00:53.100 And that framework with time will probably 01:00:53.100 --> 01:00:58.600 get tested, refined, and get into theory and hopefully 01:00:58.600 --> 01:01:00.280 into model some day. 01:01:03.640 --> 01:01:04.810 So what are the principles? 01:01:04.810 --> 01:01:06.700 The principle that we are trying to use here 01:01:06.700 --> 01:01:08.200 in principled pragmatic framework 01:01:08.200 --> 01:01:11.100 is this objective scientific method. 01:01:11.100 --> 01:01:13.730 So we said that there is an objective scientific method, 01:01:13.730 --> 01:01:14.930 these five senses. 01:01:14.930 --> 01:01:17.900 It allows me to do certain things in certain ways. 01:01:17.900 --> 01:01:22.310 Those will be independent of context. 01:01:22.310 --> 01:01:25.850 Giving out example of taking temperature-- so a temperature 01:01:25.850 --> 01:01:28.040 with a thermometer is a measurable thing. 01:01:28.040 --> 01:01:30.170 I can easily validate this. 01:01:30.170 --> 01:01:33.560 There is no ambiguity there. 01:01:33.560 --> 01:01:37.400 Pragmatism comes in this subjective interpretation now. 01:01:37.400 --> 01:01:40.220 Because the example that I was giving that how 01:01:40.220 --> 01:01:44.600 I feel about temperature is a subjective interpretation. 01:01:44.600 --> 01:01:46.850 That interpretation should not be confused 01:01:46.850 --> 01:01:48.980 with scientific methods. 01:01:48.980 --> 01:01:50.930 But I need both. 01:01:50.930 --> 01:01:52.220 I need scientific method. 01:01:52.220 --> 01:01:54.230 I need also subjective interpretation. 01:01:54.230 --> 01:01:56.390 This is exactly where water diplomacy comes in, 01:01:56.390 --> 01:01:59.400 that we just don't need scientific methods. 01:01:59.400 --> 01:02:01.580 We also need subjective interpretation 01:02:01.580 --> 01:02:05.800 of the local values, local context. 01:02:05.800 --> 01:02:10.010 Then if I can combine these two, you get principled pragmatism. 01:02:10.010 --> 01:02:12.057 That is subjective and objective. 01:02:12.057 --> 01:02:14.390 The same thing that we talked about our water diplomacy. 01:02:17.240 --> 01:02:19.190 Then we said, OK, like, I think, I don't know, 01:02:19.190 --> 01:02:20.510 you have talked about this. 01:02:20.510 --> 01:02:24.690 We look at the world in various, I would say, the simple way. 01:02:24.690 --> 01:02:27.480 So we said that there are only three types of systems. 01:02:27.480 --> 01:02:30.870 And our first job is to identify that problem. 01:02:30.870 --> 01:02:33.270 And that's the diagnosis and characterization. 01:02:33.270 --> 01:02:38.100 So with simple problems, but this causal relationships are 01:02:38.100 --> 01:02:40.690 well-understood-- 01:02:40.690 --> 01:02:43.270 complicated, it's often ambiguous, but-- 01:02:43.270 --> 01:02:46.600 not easily identified, but you can still identify this. 01:02:46.600 --> 01:02:48.850 Then you have complex problems-- 01:02:48.850 --> 01:02:53.580 not easily identifiable, only perceivable in retrospect. 01:02:53.580 --> 01:02:58.590 So a good example of this would be like flushing your toilet. 01:02:58.590 --> 01:03:01.070 You can go and buy basically a toilet system 01:03:01.070 --> 01:03:02.840 from Home Depot for $100. 01:03:02.840 --> 01:03:04.460 It would work out very nicely. 01:03:04.460 --> 01:03:06.230 No problem. 01:03:06.230 --> 01:03:10.130 Bringing water to your home from Quabbin, 01:03:10.130 --> 01:03:12.860 like about 50 miles away, and taking the water 01:03:12.860 --> 01:03:14.360 on the 16th floor of your room. 01:03:14.360 --> 01:03:16.340 And you get out, you get warm water, 01:03:16.340 --> 01:03:18.610 that's a complicated system. 01:03:18.610 --> 01:03:22.170 I need lots of pumps and pipes and then chlorination 01:03:22.170 --> 01:03:23.910 and heating and so on. 01:03:23.910 --> 01:03:26.070 Complex problem is the one that when 01:03:26.070 --> 01:03:28.200 we created this global reservoir, 01:03:28.200 --> 01:03:32.160 we have also eliminated four villages from Quabbin 01:03:32.160 --> 01:03:35.280 because we wanted to create a large reservoir. 01:03:35.280 --> 01:03:37.110 A lot of people has lost their homes 01:03:37.110 --> 01:03:38.730 and they had to be bought out. 01:03:38.730 --> 01:03:40.380 So was this right to do? 01:03:40.380 --> 01:03:42.240 Because you are basically removing 01:03:42.240 --> 01:03:46.740 human beings from four towns for 200 years, because Boston 01:03:46.740 --> 01:03:48.960 has to grow. 01:03:48.960 --> 01:03:50.140 Boston needed more water. 01:03:50.140 --> 01:03:52.890 They needed to create the Quabbin Reserve in 1920s. 01:03:52.890 --> 01:03:56.598 So they created this by eliminating four villages. 01:03:56.598 --> 01:03:58.890 And there is still people complaining that that was not 01:03:58.890 --> 01:04:00.593 the right thing to do. 01:04:00.593 --> 01:04:02.760 So that's a complex problem where you have basically 01:04:02.760 --> 01:04:05.730 coupled a natural system with the human systems. 01:04:05.730 --> 01:04:09.170 Now the system is, in this case, is knowable and predictable. 01:04:09.170 --> 01:04:12.408 So flushing a toilet is more or less predictable. 01:04:12.408 --> 01:04:14.950 This is complicated, but it's still more or less predictable. 01:04:14.950 --> 01:04:18.520 Not always, but this one is most of the time 01:04:18.520 --> 01:04:21.270 unpredictable and emergent. 01:04:21.270 --> 01:04:23.040 Meaning, that things will just emerge 01:04:23.040 --> 01:04:25.320 that you had no idea that it was going to come. 01:04:25.320 --> 01:04:26.850 And from your arsenic problem, you 01:04:26.850 --> 01:04:28.225 have seen some of this emergence. 01:04:28.225 --> 01:04:30.030 We'll talk about a little bit more. 01:04:30.030 --> 01:04:32.950 If you are to intervene in these systems, 01:04:32.950 --> 01:04:37.190 this will work with best practices. 01:04:37.190 --> 01:04:40.010 And this is where I think most of the people got it wrong. 01:04:40.010 --> 01:04:42.410 And I think we want you to be very careful. 01:04:42.410 --> 01:04:47.120 What we are saying here is that, your best practices will apply 01:04:47.120 --> 01:04:48.785 very well for simple systems. 01:04:52.060 --> 01:04:54.340 If you go into a complicated system, 01:04:54.340 --> 01:04:56.260 you need some expert knowledge now 01:04:56.260 --> 01:04:58.690 and some contextual knowledge. 01:04:58.690 --> 01:05:01.390 If you go into complex system, now you 01:05:01.390 --> 01:05:03.825 need something totally different. 01:05:03.825 --> 01:05:06.170 You need a synthesis of scientific facts 01:05:06.170 --> 01:05:09.130 and social facts. 01:05:09.130 --> 01:05:12.960 You simply cannot use best practices. 01:05:12.960 --> 01:05:15.315 Because there is no best practices for complex systems. 01:05:19.140 --> 01:05:22.530 And although you will hear this term often, 01:05:22.530 --> 01:05:26.620 "give me a roadmap," no, I cannot give you a roadmap. 01:05:26.620 --> 01:05:30.170 The roadmap assumes that I know the road. 01:05:30.170 --> 01:05:31.270 So how do I know the road? 01:05:31.270 --> 01:05:33.920 I know the road because I've seen it in the past. 01:05:33.920 --> 01:05:37.840 So that means I'm assuming the past will essentially be 01:05:37.840 --> 01:05:40.570 similar in the future as well. 01:05:40.570 --> 01:05:44.500 If the future is a little bit different than the past, 01:05:44.500 --> 01:05:47.260 my past knowledge is not going to be very useful. 01:05:47.260 --> 01:05:49.830 So I cannot have a roadmap. 01:05:49.830 --> 01:05:54.510 So to hope for a roadmap, to hope for a best practices 01:05:54.510 --> 01:05:58.625 is an illusion we must abandon to deal with complex problems. 01:06:01.200 --> 01:06:03.150 Is it making sense? 01:06:03.150 --> 01:06:05.400 But this is very important because we 01:06:05.400 --> 01:06:07.350 need to make a distinction between these three 01:06:07.350 --> 01:06:08.790 colossal problems. 01:06:08.790 --> 01:06:11.190 Your first job would be to essentially decide 01:06:11.190 --> 01:06:15.300 which one is simple, which is complicated, which is complex. 01:06:15.300 --> 01:06:17.430 And then you cannot use the tool, 01:06:17.430 --> 01:06:20.400 those that will be applicable for simple system, 01:06:20.400 --> 01:06:23.340 when the problem is actually complex, or vice versa. 01:06:28.153 --> 01:06:29.570 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Shafik, assume 01:06:29.570 --> 01:06:41.280 that everybody is working on very complex problems. 01:06:41.280 --> 01:06:44.820 Each of the cases you heard about, 01:06:44.820 --> 01:06:49.450 the beginning that people describe, they're all complex. 01:06:49.450 --> 01:06:52.210 They may have simple components within them, 01:06:52.210 --> 01:06:55.410 but basically the conflicts and what's 01:06:55.410 --> 01:06:57.225 at the heart of the conflicts are complex. 01:07:00.070 --> 01:07:04.560 It sounds from your description like it's not 01:07:04.560 --> 01:07:14.970 really possible to be usefully prescriptive in a situation 01:07:14.970 --> 01:07:17.550 in which the problems you're dealing with 01:07:17.550 --> 01:07:19.890 are highly complex. 01:07:23.310 --> 01:07:24.450 You think that's right? 01:07:24.450 --> 01:07:25.980 Or do we-- 01:07:25.980 --> 01:07:29.730 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, then we're in trouble. 01:07:29.730 --> 01:07:32.950 At some level it is, but at some level it is not. 01:07:32.950 --> 01:07:34.570 So let me see what I can explain. 01:07:34.570 --> 01:07:38.250 So the story that what has to happen then 01:07:38.250 --> 01:07:41.760 is, when you are confronted with a problem like solicited, 01:07:41.760 --> 01:07:46.500 we are confronted with the problem of Ganges Water Treaty. 01:07:46.500 --> 01:07:48.550 So let's take this as an example. 01:07:48.550 --> 01:07:51.870 Then, we have to decide, when we talk about Ganges Water Treaty, 01:07:51.870 --> 01:07:53.290 what are we talking about. 01:07:53.290 --> 01:07:55.140 So if you ask me right now, so I'll say, 01:07:55.140 --> 01:07:57.540 Ganges Water Treaty should primarily 01:07:57.540 --> 01:08:00.982 focus on the dry season flow. 01:08:00.982 --> 01:08:03.440 So now I'm trying to make the problem a little bit sharper. 01:08:03.440 --> 01:08:04.940 Why dry season flow? 01:08:04.940 --> 01:08:08.690 In the wet season, I have about 70 to 80,000 cubic meters 01:08:08.690 --> 01:08:10.160 per second of water flow. 01:08:10.160 --> 01:08:11.480 That is a flood season. 01:08:11.480 --> 01:08:13.940 Flood season lasts for a few weeks. 01:08:13.940 --> 01:08:17.960 But it clears the problem, but that is a recurring phenomenon. 01:08:17.960 --> 01:08:20.460 Then in the dry season, it's almost about eight to nine 01:08:20.460 --> 01:08:20.960 months. 01:08:20.960 --> 01:08:22.700 That creates significant problem, 01:08:22.700 --> 01:08:25.850 both from water availability for ecosystems 01:08:25.850 --> 01:08:28.580 to irrigation to navigability, so many, many things. 01:08:28.580 --> 01:08:30.649 So I will focus on that part. 01:08:30.649 --> 01:08:33.590 Then my question will be, so OK, so given 01:08:33.590 --> 01:08:38.029 that dry season flow is only 4,000 as opposed to 80,000, 01:08:38.029 --> 01:08:39.990 now what can I do. 01:08:39.990 --> 01:08:42.950 How do I basically resolve this complexity of the problem? 01:08:42.950 --> 01:08:45.170 Now we have to come up with deal with India 01:08:45.170 --> 01:08:49.550 and sit down and see what adoptions can I have. 01:08:49.550 --> 01:08:51.470 What adoption those are possible so 01:08:51.470 --> 01:08:54.109 that we both can come up with some options 01:08:54.109 --> 01:08:56.660 where we know we're not going to get 80,000. 01:08:56.660 --> 01:08:58.729 We need clearly actually 20,000. 01:08:58.729 --> 01:09:01.229 We only have four. 01:09:01.229 --> 01:09:03.240 Now how do we solve this problem? 01:09:03.240 --> 01:09:04.710 It's not easily resolvable. 01:09:04.710 --> 01:09:08.279 Then, where essentially this whole idea of mutual value 01:09:08.279 --> 01:09:11.399 creation, negotiation, and discussion has to come in, 01:09:11.399 --> 01:09:15.090 rooted in scientific facts. 01:09:15.090 --> 01:09:18.330 That's basically where I think you can think of really how 01:09:18.330 --> 01:09:20.340 do I get around this mess, because otherwise it 01:09:20.340 --> 01:09:24.634 becomes such a complex problem that nothing can be done. 01:09:24.634 --> 01:09:26.490 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: So are you saying 01:09:26.490 --> 01:09:29.700 that when you face a complex problem, 01:09:29.700 --> 01:09:31.800 try to only work on part of it? 01:09:31.800 --> 01:09:33.810 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No. 01:09:33.810 --> 01:09:37.370 What I would say, that the approach 01:09:37.370 --> 01:09:39.569 should be problem-driven. 01:09:39.569 --> 01:09:42.180 Meaning, that you have to define a particular problem 01:09:42.180 --> 01:09:43.330 that you want to solve. 01:09:43.330 --> 01:09:45.390 So here I have defined the problem 01:09:45.390 --> 01:09:50.340 that I want to resolve the dry season flow in the Ganges. 01:09:50.340 --> 01:09:51.330 That is my problem. 01:09:51.330 --> 01:09:52.413 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Right. 01:09:52.413 --> 01:09:55.065 But isn't that really a part of the larger problem of trying 01:09:55.065 --> 01:09:56.300 to managing the Ganges? 01:09:56.300 --> 01:09:58.945 PROFESSOR ISLAM: It is, it is, no question about it. 01:09:58.945 --> 01:09:59.820 No question about it. 01:09:59.820 --> 01:10:02.820 And I don't think there is any way to disentangle this. 01:10:02.820 --> 01:10:04.350 Can you take it all separately? 01:10:04.350 --> 01:10:05.460 No, you cannot. 01:10:05.460 --> 01:10:07.180 So then what do you do? 01:10:07.180 --> 01:10:10.470 So at one extreme, then you can think of really, 01:10:10.470 --> 01:10:13.470 everything is interconnected with everything else. 01:10:13.470 --> 01:10:16.320 If that is the case, then you are in a mess. 01:10:16.320 --> 01:10:18.087 That mess simply cannot be untangled. 01:10:18.087 --> 01:10:19.170 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Right. 01:10:19.170 --> 01:10:21.253 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Then, you can argue that, no, no, 01:10:21.253 --> 01:10:23.910 you are essentially being reductionist, because you 01:10:23.910 --> 01:10:28.200 are trying to reduce the problem to something that is simpler. 01:10:28.200 --> 01:10:29.580 To some extent, yes. 01:10:29.580 --> 01:10:32.400 But what we want to be careful really 01:10:32.400 --> 01:10:35.850 when I'm defining the problem for the dry season, 01:10:35.850 --> 01:10:38.100 I don't want it to be a reductionist problem 01:10:38.100 --> 01:10:41.850 that basically we do not get affected by flood. 01:10:41.850 --> 01:10:43.980 So I need to be careful really-- 01:10:43.980 --> 01:10:47.550 the rest of the dry season is eight months. 01:10:47.550 --> 01:10:51.210 These eight months will affect the other four months too. 01:10:51.210 --> 01:10:51.930 How? 01:10:51.930 --> 01:10:53.010 That is the question. 01:10:53.010 --> 01:10:56.440 If they are cleanly separable, then it's easy. 01:10:56.440 --> 01:10:58.890 But they are not cleanly separable, they will not be. 01:10:58.890 --> 01:11:00.600 So this is what the complexity will come. 01:11:00.600 --> 01:11:03.238 I don't think how hard we try you will be able to go in. 01:11:03.238 --> 01:11:05.280 That's the reason scientific method is important, 01:11:05.280 --> 01:11:09.670 because you need to keep this idea of experimentation valid. 01:11:09.670 --> 01:11:11.160 So you observe, you ask questions, 01:11:11.160 --> 01:11:13.440 you hypothesize your experiment, analyze, conclude, 01:11:13.440 --> 01:11:15.000 and keep doing this. 01:11:15.000 --> 01:11:17.573 Then you go here. 01:11:17.573 --> 01:11:18.990 So I think that this I don't think 01:11:18.990 --> 01:11:21.420 we need to call this because this is more into-- 01:11:23.960 --> 01:11:26.290 recognize that basically there is no panacea here. 01:11:26.290 --> 01:11:28.520 See, if there is no panacea, then what is there? 01:11:28.520 --> 01:11:31.010 What I am saying that we need to be precise in diagnosing 01:11:31.010 --> 01:11:32.960 the problem. 01:11:32.960 --> 01:11:35.750 So here the whole approach that we are trying to take 01:11:35.750 --> 01:11:38.060 is that this is a problem-driven approach. 01:11:38.060 --> 01:11:40.500 It is not a theory-driven approach. 01:11:40.500 --> 01:11:42.290 So I have a problem. 01:11:42.290 --> 01:11:46.160 That problem is to solve dry season water problem 01:11:46.160 --> 01:11:49.070 in Bangladesh or in India. 01:11:49.070 --> 01:11:51.940 Now to do this, so that is my diagnosis of the problem. 01:11:51.940 --> 01:11:54.730 Now what are the facets of the diagnosis? 01:11:54.730 --> 01:11:56.950 What aspect do I need to do? 01:11:56.950 --> 01:12:01.300 Is it really to keep Kolkata port navigable? 01:12:01.300 --> 01:12:06.160 Or is it really to stop saltwater [INAUDIBLE] 01:12:06.160 --> 01:12:09.200 in Bangladesh? 01:12:09.200 --> 01:12:10.280 Or both are important. 01:12:10.280 --> 01:12:12.810 If both are important, then how do I try to see, 01:12:12.810 --> 01:12:15.080 given the limited amount of water that I have, 01:12:15.080 --> 01:12:16.610 can I do both? 01:12:16.610 --> 01:12:19.490 If I cannot, then do I have other options? 01:12:19.490 --> 01:12:22.040 What if I use ground water? 01:12:22.040 --> 01:12:25.220 Can I use groundwater in a year and next year basically 01:12:25.220 --> 01:12:27.530 I have more rain it gets filled. 01:12:27.530 --> 01:12:29.570 With the groundwater, I cannot use it forever, 01:12:29.570 --> 01:12:31.340 because it will get depleted. 01:12:31.340 --> 01:12:33.690 So those are the type of discussion that has to happen. 01:12:33.690 --> 01:12:36.830 So precisely the point with complex system 01:12:36.830 --> 01:12:40.250 is that complex systems will not allow you to give 01:12:40.250 --> 01:12:43.430 a solution that is static. 01:12:43.430 --> 01:12:45.200 It will give you a solution given 01:12:45.200 --> 01:12:50.380 that particular problem, given that time and space scale. 01:12:50.380 --> 01:12:54.430 Then what we need to be careful is that we monitor 01:12:54.430 --> 01:12:58.700 and we keep adapting to the changing situations. 01:12:58.700 --> 01:13:01.060 So that being said, we have to embrace complexity 01:13:01.060 --> 01:13:02.518 with humility then. 01:13:02.518 --> 01:13:04.310 That is not basically I'm going to give you 01:13:04.310 --> 01:13:05.540 a solution, that you have it. 01:13:05.540 --> 01:13:07.790 There is no prescription that is universal. 01:13:07.790 --> 01:13:09.020 I cannot do it. 01:13:09.020 --> 01:13:11.300 I'm just being very honest and blunt. 01:13:11.300 --> 01:13:13.850 But at the same time, I'm giving you a framework. 01:13:13.850 --> 01:13:17.540 That framework would allow you to do things in certain ways. 01:13:17.540 --> 01:13:19.970 Then you think in a systematic way. 01:13:19.970 --> 01:13:21.060 What does that mean? 01:13:21.060 --> 01:13:22.700 That means that you try to define 01:13:22.700 --> 01:13:24.860 what your system boundary is. 01:13:24.860 --> 01:13:27.690 What are the nodes and links in that system? 01:13:27.690 --> 01:13:30.980 So that when you get this spaghetti diagram, 01:13:30.980 --> 01:13:33.680 what are the nodes and links that 01:13:33.680 --> 01:13:36.410 create this spaghetti diagram and that is 01:13:36.410 --> 01:13:40.738 understandable and systematically manageable? 01:13:40.738 --> 01:13:42.530 Then you say, OK, I diagnose and prescribe. 01:13:42.530 --> 01:13:44.238 So I'm saying that you need to prescribe. 01:13:44.238 --> 01:13:46.040 So how do you prescribe then? 01:13:46.040 --> 01:13:49.340 The way you prescribe by understanding 01:13:49.340 --> 01:13:55.070 the capacity of the system, as well as the constraint 01:13:55.070 --> 01:13:57.820 that system imposes on you. 01:13:57.820 --> 01:14:01.210 What that means, really, the capacity and constraints 01:14:01.210 --> 01:14:04.030 for the Ganges between Bangladesh and India 01:14:04.030 --> 01:14:06.490 will be quite different, if you are 01:14:06.490 --> 01:14:11.490 trying to do it for the Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia. 01:14:11.490 --> 01:14:14.390 So the challenge here is that you have diagnosed the problem. 01:14:14.390 --> 01:14:16.490 Now you have to give some prescription. 01:14:16.490 --> 01:14:20.960 That prescription must be consistent with the capacity 01:14:20.960 --> 01:14:22.880 that your system has. 01:14:22.880 --> 01:14:25.910 And that capacity can involve basically from human capital 01:14:25.910 --> 01:14:28.670 to basically actual assets of money 01:14:28.670 --> 01:14:31.520 to cultural values and everything else. 01:14:31.520 --> 01:14:37.560 But not all of them are important at any given time. 01:14:37.560 --> 01:14:39.900 The challenge for us as a water diplomat 01:14:39.900 --> 01:14:46.250 is to find out what those are and try to define that subset. 01:14:46.250 --> 01:14:48.740 Otherwise, this set is very large. 01:14:48.740 --> 01:14:51.080 You can go to the Ganges and assume that, look, 01:14:51.080 --> 01:14:53.870 Ganges water is probably one of the most polluted water 01:14:53.870 --> 01:14:54.800 in the world. 01:14:54.800 --> 01:14:59.480 But it is the most holy water for Hindus in India. 01:14:59.480 --> 01:15:03.080 So I cannot basically start questioning the cultural value. 01:15:03.080 --> 01:15:05.757 That has to be taken into account. 01:15:05.757 --> 01:15:07.340 So that is the capacity and constraint 01:15:07.340 --> 01:15:10.550 the system is imposing on me. 01:15:10.550 --> 01:15:13.820 Then I said that there is no panacea. 01:15:13.820 --> 01:15:16.550 So let's be clear about this, that there is no simple, 01:15:16.550 --> 01:15:18.800 generalizable best practices. 01:15:21.410 --> 01:15:23.486 Then I said, OK-- 01:15:23.486 --> 01:15:25.220 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Excuse me, Shafik. 01:15:25.220 --> 01:15:28.520 When you say diagnose and prescribe, 01:15:28.520 --> 01:15:32.540 using capacity and constraints, you 01:15:32.540 --> 01:15:34.633 don't mean that you can't enhance the capacity. 01:15:34.633 --> 01:15:36.050 PROFESSOR ISLAM: You can, you can. 01:15:36.050 --> 01:15:38.008 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: With resources from outside 01:15:38.008 --> 01:15:38.810 the system, right? 01:15:38.810 --> 01:15:40.018 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, I don't. 01:15:40.018 --> 01:15:42.870 I think very good point, no question. 01:15:42.870 --> 01:15:43.370 Exactly. 01:15:43.370 --> 01:15:45.860 I think we need to bring in other-- 01:15:45.860 --> 01:15:48.810 capacity is not fixed. 01:15:48.810 --> 01:15:51.645 Capacity can be enhanced, capacity can be reinforced, 01:15:51.645 --> 01:15:54.060 even I think can be built, and even can 01:15:54.060 --> 01:15:57.430 be taken as an outside energy. 01:15:57.430 --> 01:16:01.860 So World Bank can create more-- basically can put in money. 01:16:01.860 --> 01:16:02.742 Absolutely. 01:16:02.742 --> 01:16:04.950 I think I need to be a little bit more careful there. 01:16:08.870 --> 01:16:12.170 No let's not assume that the system capacity and constraints 01:16:12.170 --> 01:16:13.080 are fixed. 01:16:13.080 --> 01:16:13.580 OK. 01:16:17.760 --> 01:16:20.820 So the question is, basically, do we need anything else. 01:16:20.820 --> 01:16:23.020 Because I'm also teaching a similar class at Tufts. 01:16:23.020 --> 01:16:24.990 So we need to pose this question. 01:16:24.990 --> 01:16:28.020 So I'm asking maybe you guys also that. 01:16:28.020 --> 01:16:33.330 OK, is this more or less general abstract level of things 01:16:33.330 --> 01:16:36.300 that we need to do to start addressing the problem? 01:16:36.300 --> 01:16:40.780 Then we'll get into very quickly our arsenic problem, then 01:16:40.780 --> 01:16:43.508 how this can be applied in real-time. 01:16:43.508 --> 01:16:45.550 I don't know-- how much time do we have, Animesh? 01:16:48.760 --> 01:16:50.900 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: We have about 10 or 15 minutes. 01:16:50.900 --> 01:16:51.733 PROFESSOR ISLAM: OK. 01:16:51.733 --> 01:16:52.843 So, all right. 01:16:52.843 --> 01:16:53.760 So let's do the thing. 01:16:53.760 --> 01:16:55.200 Maybe I'll just go into this. 01:16:55.200 --> 01:16:58.170 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Could you just go back one for a minute 01:16:58.170 --> 01:17:01.010 to the diagram, to the list you had? 01:17:01.010 --> 01:17:05.530 You said, in the question marks at the end, is that sufficient. 01:17:05.530 --> 01:17:06.345 Is that complete? 01:17:06.345 --> 01:17:07.540 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Do we need anything else. 01:17:07.540 --> 01:17:08.670 It's like one question you raised, 01:17:08.670 --> 01:17:10.585 I think I need to use this [INAUDIBLE]---- 01:17:10.585 --> 01:17:12.540 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: My uneasiness 01:17:12.540 --> 01:17:20.370 with that list is that, if you're going to act adaptively, 01:17:20.370 --> 01:17:26.040 if you're going to continue to review and change what you are 01:17:26.040 --> 01:17:32.250 doing, you need to have the institutional capacity 01:17:32.250 --> 01:17:33.203 to do that. 01:17:33.203 --> 01:17:34.120 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure. 01:17:34.120 --> 01:17:40.820 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: To build the institutional capacity 01:17:40.820 --> 01:17:45.860 to think and act systematically to build the capacity, 01:17:45.860 --> 01:17:51.050 to act adaptively. 01:17:51.050 --> 01:17:57.560 And so the person who's talking about taking action, I think, 01:17:57.560 --> 01:18:01.850 needs to think about the institutional design 01:18:01.850 --> 01:18:05.540 for the process that makes this list possible. 01:18:05.540 --> 01:18:08.373 And that itself becomes an item on the list. 01:18:08.373 --> 01:18:09.290 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure. 01:18:09.290 --> 01:18:09.860 Good point. 01:18:12.478 --> 01:18:13.270 Any other thoughts? 01:18:19.140 --> 01:18:22.140 All right, let's see whether we can-- 01:18:22.140 --> 01:18:23.920 so essentially that what we are arguing-- 01:18:23.920 --> 01:18:25.632 so I hope I convinced you-- that there 01:18:25.632 --> 01:18:27.090 is no established methodology exist 01:18:27.090 --> 01:18:29.730 to resolve complex problem, because these problems are not 01:18:29.730 --> 01:18:31.340 deterministic nor random. 01:18:31.340 --> 01:18:33.840 So that means you cannot use classical physics or you cannot 01:18:33.840 --> 01:18:37.030 use statistical mechanics to do this. 01:18:37.030 --> 01:18:39.670 Then, at the same time, these problems 01:18:39.670 --> 01:18:43.350 can neither be fully explored by the positivist, meaning 01:18:43.350 --> 01:18:45.270 this hypothesis testing type of framework 01:18:45.270 --> 01:18:48.000 that I was arguing that with five senses. 01:18:48.000 --> 01:18:50.700 So you cannot just use scientific methods. 01:18:50.700 --> 01:18:54.470 Nor can you use just interpretations. 01:18:54.470 --> 01:18:57.670 So it's not that basically you can use either/or methods. 01:18:57.670 --> 01:19:00.070 So you cannot use purely scientific method. 01:19:00.070 --> 01:19:01.810 You cannot use purely subjective, 01:19:01.810 --> 01:19:05.300 ethnographic methods to address these problems. 01:19:05.300 --> 01:19:07.000 What then you have to do really is 01:19:07.000 --> 01:19:09.490 somewhere to basically combine your scientific facts 01:19:09.490 --> 01:19:11.420 and social facts. 01:19:11.420 --> 01:19:12.680 So that's what it's all about. 01:19:12.680 --> 01:19:15.350 And if you look at the paper that I sent you to read, 01:19:15.350 --> 01:19:17.770 the arsenic contamination problem essentially tries to do 01:19:17.770 --> 01:19:22.600 this, is to explain the problem from a scientific facts 01:19:22.600 --> 01:19:25.360 perspective, then use the understanding-- 01:19:25.360 --> 01:19:26.740 meaning the social facts-- 01:19:26.740 --> 01:19:28.580 to actually address the problem. 01:19:28.580 --> 01:19:30.610 So what that means to you is-- so let's go back 01:19:30.610 --> 01:19:31.860 and visiting your [INAUDIBLE]. 01:19:31.860 --> 01:19:32.860 I don't go here. 01:19:32.860 --> 01:19:34.420 So I go here. 01:19:34.420 --> 01:19:36.290 So I use an illustrative case. 01:19:36.290 --> 01:19:40.950 Illustrative case is that it can support a theory. 01:19:40.950 --> 01:19:43.190 So the arsenic contamination problem 01:19:43.190 --> 01:19:46.160 is used here as an illustrative case. 01:19:46.160 --> 01:19:49.040 Meaning that if you illustrate that, it's a complex problem. 01:19:49.040 --> 01:19:53.840 But it does not really provide any validation of the theory. 01:19:53.840 --> 01:19:56.090 But we've also used it as an extended case. 01:19:56.090 --> 01:19:58.940 Meaning that if I take this case and I 01:19:58.940 --> 01:20:02.180 look at all the features, what I see really here is this 01:20:02.180 --> 01:20:05.630 is a couple natural and human system problem. 01:20:05.630 --> 01:20:08.120 In this couple of natural and human system problem, 01:20:08.120 --> 01:20:13.260 when I intervene, it gives rise to emergent properties. 01:20:13.260 --> 01:20:16.020 And then it becomes a complex problem. 01:20:16.020 --> 01:20:19.430 So that means I can use this to show really 01:20:19.430 --> 01:20:21.860 when you have this type of coupling, 01:20:21.860 --> 01:20:23.990 you will expect these type of things to happen. 01:20:26.550 --> 01:20:28.970 So now if you take, actually what happened then. 01:20:28.970 --> 01:20:31.310 So basically Bangladesh has decided 01:20:31.310 --> 01:20:33.857 that they will promote groundwater use as a case study 01:20:33.857 --> 01:20:34.940 that we are using it here. 01:20:34.940 --> 01:20:36.852 There are two policy goals. 01:20:36.852 --> 01:20:38.810 They want to increase agricultural productivity 01:20:38.810 --> 01:20:40.200 and reduce infant mortality. 01:20:40.200 --> 01:20:43.070 So these were the policy goals they wanted to do-- 01:20:43.070 --> 01:20:46.490 very sharp, very well-defined, easily measurable. 01:20:46.490 --> 01:20:51.292 And then you go and then you see this. 01:20:51.292 --> 01:20:53.000 So this is where essentially-- now if you 01:20:53.000 --> 01:20:56.000 try to re-link all these different components, 01:20:56.000 --> 01:21:00.830 different variables, processes, now you see this is a mess. 01:21:00.830 --> 01:21:03.140 And this mess really is not new. 01:21:03.140 --> 01:21:04.685 And this is not even our mess. 01:21:04.685 --> 01:21:06.920 I think many people have created this type of mess. 01:21:06.920 --> 01:21:09.540 They call this system diagram, an interaction diagram, 01:21:09.540 --> 01:21:10.340 whatever. 01:21:10.340 --> 01:21:13.310 And we are seeing that this is really so old, 01:21:13.310 --> 01:21:15.920 basically it doesn't allow me to do anything. 01:21:15.920 --> 01:21:18.832 I just totally get paralyzed. 01:21:18.832 --> 01:21:20.540 So it's not going to work, because things 01:21:20.540 --> 01:21:21.332 are interconnected. 01:21:21.332 --> 01:21:22.400 We understand that part. 01:21:22.400 --> 01:21:25.880 The question then becomes, how do you diagnose or sharply 01:21:25.880 --> 01:21:29.810 define the problem that not all of these links and nodes 01:21:29.810 --> 01:21:31.430 are equally important. 01:21:31.430 --> 01:21:33.680 Only some are. 01:21:33.680 --> 01:21:35.750 The question is, which are. 01:21:35.750 --> 01:21:37.260 So in the case of dry seasonal flow, 01:21:37.260 --> 01:21:38.510 we gave you an example relief. 01:21:38.510 --> 01:21:39.635 That is what we want to do. 01:21:39.635 --> 01:21:42.680 So that's a much simpler definition 01:21:42.680 --> 01:21:44.493 of the problem with the interconnections 01:21:44.493 --> 01:21:45.410 and interdependencies. 01:21:45.410 --> 01:21:46.680 Those will be needed. 01:21:46.680 --> 01:21:49.620 Once you have that, then you can go here. 01:21:49.620 --> 01:21:51.470 So if you look at what Bangladesh has done, 01:21:51.470 --> 01:21:53.570 they wanted to have two policy goals. 01:21:53.570 --> 01:21:56.848 And these were achieved really with tremendous success. 01:21:56.848 --> 01:21:58.640 It has increased agricultural productivity, 01:21:58.640 --> 01:22:00.740 decreased infant mortality. 01:22:00.740 --> 01:22:04.480 Agricultural productivity has gone up by almost 100%. 01:22:04.480 --> 01:22:07.740 Infant mortality was the lowest in South Asia. 01:22:07.740 --> 01:22:10.540 So in those terms, it was very good really, 01:22:10.540 --> 01:22:16.820 very basically successful story from 1960 to almost 1980s. 01:22:16.820 --> 01:22:19.190 Then what you started seeing, the arsenic contamination 01:22:19.190 --> 01:22:21.200 emerges now. 01:22:21.200 --> 01:22:23.660 In 1960, they did not expect that arsenic contamination 01:22:23.660 --> 01:22:24.758 would come. 01:22:24.758 --> 01:22:26.300 The difficulty they have created they 01:22:26.300 --> 01:22:28.520 have not measured so they are not following it. 01:22:28.520 --> 01:22:30.743 So they were not really monitoring the progress. 01:22:30.743 --> 01:22:31.910 They are not being adaptive. 01:22:31.910 --> 01:22:33.570 They did not care. 01:22:33.570 --> 01:22:35.240 So as a result, it emerges. 01:22:35.240 --> 01:22:38.090 Even that emergence did not really lead to any action. 01:22:38.090 --> 01:22:41.570 It took another 15 years. 01:22:41.570 --> 01:22:45.830 On the day first the arsenic was detected in water, 01:22:45.830 --> 01:22:48.200 then to actually create something at the government 01:22:48.200 --> 01:22:49.430 level, it took 15 years. 01:22:49.430 --> 01:22:51.690 Why did it take that long? 01:22:51.690 --> 01:22:54.030 So that's where basically the system failed. 01:22:54.030 --> 01:22:55.610 Then you have taken interventions 01:22:55.610 --> 01:22:58.187 which led to even more unintended emergence. 01:22:58.187 --> 01:23:00.020 If you remember, really, you looked at this. 01:23:00.020 --> 01:23:03.260 Basically, they put red and green wells. 01:23:03.260 --> 01:23:06.050 Now the villages that had red wells 01:23:06.050 --> 01:23:09.500 now have problems with basically girls getting married 01:23:09.500 --> 01:23:12.200 because they have a stigma. 01:23:12.200 --> 01:23:14.270 So you have created a social stigma 01:23:14.270 --> 01:23:16.760 by creating a solution that you wanted 01:23:16.760 --> 01:23:19.880 to do because you wanted to let people know that there 01:23:19.880 --> 01:23:25.440 is this well is red, meaning it has high arsenic concentration. 01:23:25.440 --> 01:23:26.930 So where did that come from? 01:23:31.610 --> 01:23:33.200 What we learn from this, this was 01:23:33.200 --> 01:23:37.210 a theory-driven, causality-based reasoning. 01:23:37.210 --> 01:23:38.660 What did that come from? 01:23:38.660 --> 01:23:44.080 So that really came from if you know the story of cholera 01:23:44.080 --> 01:23:47.130 in London in 1854. 01:23:47.130 --> 01:23:50.550 And John Snow found out that-- he was an epidemiologist-- 01:23:50.550 --> 01:23:53.340 he found out that there is a cholera outbreak in London 01:23:53.340 --> 01:23:55.450 and they cannot find out what is going on. 01:23:55.450 --> 01:23:58.470 So he did a very systematic way of finding out 01:23:58.470 --> 01:24:01.740 who has cholera, where the drinking water is coming from. 01:24:01.740 --> 01:24:04.080 And he found out the well. 01:24:04.080 --> 01:24:07.710 And he went and basically shut that well down. 01:24:07.710 --> 01:24:10.100 Cholera went away. 01:24:10.100 --> 01:24:13.190 So that is basically my theory, or by basically 01:24:13.190 --> 01:24:16.400 scientific knowledge that I used in Bangladesh also, 01:24:16.400 --> 01:24:17.900 without understanding anything else. 01:24:17.900 --> 01:24:21.440 So I basically went and start painting everything red, 01:24:21.440 --> 01:24:24.150 because Snow did it and it stopped cholera. 01:24:24.150 --> 01:24:25.980 So if I do this, arsenic will be stopped. 01:24:25.980 --> 01:24:26.960 Yes, it will be. 01:24:26.960 --> 01:24:30.590 The only difficulty there is that this is rural Bangladesh. 01:24:30.590 --> 01:24:34.940 Number 1, I have over 10 million wells right now and not one. 01:24:34.940 --> 01:24:38.600 So as a result, my theory doesn't go with actually what 01:24:38.600 --> 01:24:40.770 is happening on the ground. 01:24:40.770 --> 01:24:42.170 So we got into serious mess. 01:24:42.170 --> 01:24:46.380 And that took another 20 years to unfold. 01:24:46.380 --> 01:24:49.580 So what would happen, in a principled pragmatic approach, 01:24:49.580 --> 01:24:51.380 what you want to do, you want to find out 01:24:51.380 --> 01:24:53.010 the problem-driven question. 01:24:53.010 --> 01:24:56.330 So the question was that, OK, so I have infant mortality 01:24:56.330 --> 01:24:58.710 problem in Bangladesh. 01:24:58.710 --> 01:25:01.010 So to solve that infant mortality problem, 01:25:01.010 --> 01:25:02.930 I found out the quickest solution. 01:25:02.930 --> 01:25:05.060 What is the quickest solution? 01:25:05.060 --> 01:25:06.890 Dig some shallow wells. 01:25:06.890 --> 01:25:08.510 It's cheaper, it's quicker. 01:25:08.510 --> 01:25:09.080 Fine. 01:25:09.080 --> 01:25:10.340 And we've done that. 01:25:10.340 --> 01:25:12.090 And that is perfectly fine. 01:25:12.090 --> 01:25:15.710 What was missing there is that they did not monitor really 01:25:15.710 --> 01:25:17.300 the progression of this. 01:25:17.300 --> 01:25:19.250 They just assumed that it's a simple solution. 01:25:19.250 --> 01:25:20.780 It'll stay forever. 01:25:20.780 --> 01:25:22.310 If they have monitored this, they 01:25:22.310 --> 01:25:24.530 would have found out long ago. 01:25:24.530 --> 01:25:26.750 That's why we're seeing this problem-driven question 01:25:26.750 --> 01:25:29.630 with hypotheses consistent with observed signals. 01:25:29.630 --> 01:25:33.080 I need to keep observing the system as it evolves. 01:25:33.080 --> 01:25:35.720 If I can do this, then I have an approach that 01:25:35.720 --> 01:25:38.670 is more or less functional. 01:25:38.670 --> 01:25:41.310 So to summarize then, basically, what we need to do, 01:25:41.310 --> 01:25:45.240 we need to first find out a very sharp definition of the problem 01:25:45.240 --> 01:25:47.100 that we want to address. 01:25:47.100 --> 01:25:50.580 Then find out whether is this is a simple problem, 01:25:50.580 --> 01:25:53.280 complicated problem, or a complex problem. 01:25:53.280 --> 01:25:55.980 Then find out, if it is a complex problem, then what 01:25:55.980 --> 01:25:57.870 is the complexity coming from. 01:25:57.870 --> 01:26:00.720 Is the complexity coming from the scientific unknown 01:26:00.720 --> 01:26:02.770 or is it coming from the social fact? 01:26:02.770 --> 01:26:04.800 Those are alternatives. 01:26:04.800 --> 01:26:07.200 Then try to synthesize these two. 01:26:07.200 --> 01:26:11.550 Then design an intervention with some basically targeted metric, 01:26:11.550 --> 01:26:13.140 that this is what I want to do. 01:26:13.140 --> 01:26:16.140 And then monitor this as you go along. 01:26:16.140 --> 01:26:18.530 Then you could be adaptive and find 01:26:18.530 --> 01:26:21.420 a solution that will basically be resilient 01:26:21.420 --> 01:26:23.680 and changes over time. 01:26:23.680 --> 01:26:25.287 There is no universal solution. 01:26:25.287 --> 01:26:27.120 So if have you one message you want to take, 01:26:27.120 --> 01:26:30.930 I think that will be that there is no universal generalizable 01:26:30.930 --> 01:26:33.280 solution for complex systems. 01:26:33.280 --> 01:26:36.330 Complex systems will bring even more problems 01:26:36.330 --> 01:26:37.890 once you try to solve them. 01:26:37.890 --> 01:26:39.450 By the time you have solved them, 01:26:39.450 --> 01:26:41.770 you have given rise to another set of problems. 01:26:41.770 --> 01:26:43.300 And this is also nothing new really. 01:26:43.300 --> 01:26:46.830 This has been done with Larry's department for many years, 01:26:46.830 --> 01:26:48.990 from like Sean to other people. 01:26:48.990 --> 01:26:53.800 They have talked about these problems almost 50 years ago, 01:26:53.800 --> 01:26:56.080 that the idea of when you're trying 01:26:56.080 --> 01:27:00.940 to do these social problems, by the time you solve the problem, 01:27:00.940 --> 01:27:03.843 you have given rise to another set of problems. 01:27:03.843 --> 01:27:05.260 So the challenge is to essentially 01:27:05.260 --> 01:27:11.680 be very aware of that problem nature will change. 01:27:11.680 --> 01:27:16.890 And if it does, how do I detect them early on so that I can be 01:27:16.890 --> 01:27:20.380 adaptive and act accordingly? 01:27:20.380 --> 01:27:21.100 We'll stop here. 01:27:25.060 --> 01:27:30.120 DR. GAIN: So do you have any final question for Shafik? 01:27:33.417 --> 01:27:36.440 AUDIENCE: What are your thoughts about the enabling conditions 01:27:36.440 --> 01:27:39.908 between India and Pakistan on taking up 01:27:39.908 --> 01:27:41.450 the divisions in Ganges Water Treaty? 01:27:43.550 --> 01:27:45.550 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Enabling conditions should be-- 01:27:45.550 --> 01:27:46.960 those will remain three. 01:27:46.960 --> 01:27:49.150 What you want to do, hopefully, I think, 01:27:49.150 --> 01:27:55.250 is that what are the main issues of contention right now. 01:27:55.250 --> 01:27:57.860 That needs to be discussed, because I have not 01:27:57.860 --> 01:28:00.030 following recently about the industry. 01:28:00.030 --> 01:28:03.240 So what would be good I think for if you 01:28:03.240 --> 01:28:08.180 can identify one or two things that both countries are 01:28:08.180 --> 01:28:09.470 in disagreement with. 01:28:09.470 --> 01:28:10.400 What is that really? 01:28:10.400 --> 01:28:11.650 So I can give you one example. 01:28:11.650 --> 01:28:14.060 For example, for Brahmaputra is that what I followed 01:28:14.060 --> 01:28:16.820 recently is, say, for example, India 01:28:16.820 --> 01:28:19.910 is claiming that China is holding all the water 01:28:19.910 --> 01:28:23.140 and then it will create problem. 01:28:23.140 --> 01:28:25.690 Physically, that is not true. 01:28:25.690 --> 01:28:28.930 Because the amount of water that is coming from Burma for China, 01:28:28.930 --> 01:28:31.300 even if China-- we did this study with domination, 01:28:31.300 --> 01:28:33.040 with another Chinese student we had. 01:28:33.040 --> 01:28:36.760 Even if they decide to keep all the waters in China, 01:28:36.760 --> 01:28:40.180 it will have no impact in India, although they 01:28:40.180 --> 01:28:42.130 are making that claim. 01:28:42.130 --> 01:28:45.570 So this is essentially a social myth they want to create, 01:28:45.570 --> 01:28:48.150 that the Chinese are creating problem. 01:28:48.150 --> 01:28:51.580 But these are not based on facts. 01:28:51.580 --> 01:28:54.510 So what you want to do within this, to find out 01:28:54.510 --> 01:28:59.220 is it possible to find some very sharp scientific facts-- those 01:28:59.220 --> 01:29:00.300 are observable. 01:29:00.300 --> 01:29:02.550 Like one example I use with Bangladesh 01:29:02.550 --> 01:29:08.440 in India for the Ganges, even if I give all the water to India 01:29:08.440 --> 01:29:11.110 in the dry season, India will still not 01:29:11.110 --> 01:29:13.910 be able to basically make their Kolkata port navigable 01:29:13.910 --> 01:29:15.740 during the dry season. 01:29:15.740 --> 01:29:17.410 So that means this is a non-starter. 01:29:17.410 --> 01:29:19.180 Why are we start fighting this? 01:29:19.180 --> 01:29:20.530 Try to find something else then. 01:29:22.882 --> 01:29:25.090 Although, of course, it was scarcest problem if India 01:29:25.090 --> 01:29:27.440 keeps all the water in the dry season. 01:29:27.440 --> 01:29:30.190 But even if Bangladesh decides I'll give you everything, 01:29:30.190 --> 01:29:32.270 still it will not solve the problem. 01:29:32.270 --> 01:29:36.320 So that means you need alternative sources now. 01:29:36.320 --> 01:29:37.715 That part has not been explored. 01:29:42.890 --> 01:29:44.820 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Before we finish, 01:29:44.820 --> 01:29:48.660 I just want to thank Shafik again. 01:29:48.660 --> 01:29:51.010 He and I worked together a long time on this. 01:29:51.010 --> 01:29:53.100 And I'm always learning something new 01:29:53.100 --> 01:29:56.700 each time I hear him present this material. 01:29:56.700 --> 01:29:59.850 So thank you for taking the time, Shafik, to meet 01:29:59.850 --> 01:30:03.210 with the class and for sharing your ideas. 01:30:03.210 --> 01:30:05.550 And thank you for having such good ideas. 01:30:05.550 --> 01:30:06.630 DR. GAIN: Yeah, so. 01:30:06.630 --> 01:30:07.630 PROFESSOR ISLAM: No, thank you very much. 01:30:07.630 --> 01:30:09.672 No, I think, No, I don't want to embarrass Larry. 01:30:09.672 --> 01:30:13.610 Larry has been an inspirational mentor. 01:30:13.610 --> 01:30:16.100 So because many of the things that I discussed today 01:30:16.100 --> 01:30:19.250 I did not know about maybe 15 years ago when I started out. 01:30:19.250 --> 01:30:21.980 So we have been talking for a long time now. 01:30:21.980 --> 01:30:24.080 So yeah, if you look at this guy, 01:30:24.080 --> 01:30:27.610 you said that you need 10,000 hours to develop any expertise. 01:30:27.610 --> 01:30:29.150 So between both of us, we probably 01:30:29.150 --> 01:30:30.980 spend more than 10,000 hours now. 01:30:30.980 --> 01:30:31.670 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Oh yeah. 01:30:31.670 --> 01:30:33.212 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So hopefully we have 01:30:33.212 --> 01:30:35.695 some level of at least understanding in for expertise. 01:30:35.695 --> 01:30:40.027 DR. GAIN: But also, yeah from our side, yeah. 01:30:40.027 --> 01:30:42.110 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Everybody in the class, right, 01:30:42.110 --> 01:30:44.810 the other people in this class are potentially 01:30:44.810 --> 01:30:49.730 the person you'll find yourself coming back to and working 01:30:49.730 --> 01:30:51.380 with. 01:30:51.380 --> 01:30:53.450 Shafik and I, we did not know each other 01:30:53.450 --> 01:30:57.800 when we first encountered some overlap in our interests. 01:30:57.800 --> 01:31:01.250 And we just kept creating opportunities 01:31:01.250 --> 01:31:05.450 to exchange our thoughts, and Animesh then 01:31:05.450 --> 01:31:10.550 gets added to the mix and now extends both of our ideas 01:31:10.550 --> 01:31:12.990 and our work and his own work. 01:31:12.990 --> 01:31:17.390 So everybody in the class should imagine 01:31:17.390 --> 01:31:20.630 that it's through these interactions 01:31:20.630 --> 01:31:24.990 with your colleagues that you shape and sharpen your ideas. 01:31:24.990 --> 01:31:28.040 So Shafik, thank you. 01:31:28.040 --> 01:31:29.070 DR. GAIN: Yeah. 01:31:29.070 --> 01:31:30.620 PROFESSOR ISLAM: So for the class, 01:31:30.620 --> 01:31:32.130 I think I have a challenge for you. 01:31:32.130 --> 01:31:34.880 So since you did not share much of your thoughts, 01:31:34.880 --> 01:31:35.930 maybe you're too shy. 01:31:35.930 --> 01:31:39.270 So think about the arsenic paper that you read. 01:31:39.270 --> 01:31:42.950 I want you to find out at least one hole, the one thing 01:31:42.950 --> 01:31:46.550 that you found that this is really outrageously stupid, 01:31:46.550 --> 01:31:47.790 it's not going to work. 01:31:47.790 --> 01:31:50.870 So I gave the same challenge to my students also. 01:31:50.870 --> 01:31:53.998 So there are a few things that I have issues. 01:31:53.998 --> 01:31:55.290 I did not share those with you. 01:31:55.290 --> 01:31:56.780 But I will not tell you right now. 01:31:56.780 --> 01:32:00.150 But I want you to see really-- 01:32:00.150 --> 01:32:02.960 Larry raised something very interesting here, 01:32:02.960 --> 01:32:05.660 that if the institutional mechanism is not there, 01:32:05.660 --> 01:32:09.060 if the capacity is constant, it's not going to work. 01:32:09.060 --> 01:32:10.520 So we need to refine that. 01:32:10.520 --> 01:32:13.340 But are there anything else you see in terms 01:32:13.340 --> 01:32:16.760 of making it operational? 01:32:16.760 --> 01:32:18.830 See, at one point I said the complex systems, 01:32:18.830 --> 01:32:20.730 you don't have generalizable solutions. 01:32:20.730 --> 01:32:22.880 You don't have any prescription. 01:32:22.880 --> 01:32:25.340 But then we are giving you prescription too. 01:32:25.340 --> 01:32:28.970 So the line is very subtle here. 01:32:28.970 --> 01:32:32.520 But at the same time, I don't see a way around it. 01:32:32.520 --> 01:32:33.980 So the question is basically how do 01:32:33.980 --> 01:32:36.230 I bring in these ideas of principles 01:32:36.230 --> 01:32:40.670 of scientific methods which are more replicable, more 01:32:40.670 --> 01:32:43.220 reproducible with the social effects which 01:32:43.220 --> 01:32:47.000 are going to be continuously subjective, continuously 01:32:47.000 --> 01:32:49.330 contentious. 01:32:49.330 --> 01:32:53.510 But at the same time, decision has to be made. 01:32:53.510 --> 01:32:55.510 So that's where basically, where are the hiccups 01:32:55.510 --> 01:32:59.020 or where are the binding constant that will essentially 01:32:59.020 --> 01:33:01.298 let it fail? 01:33:01.298 --> 01:33:02.840 If you can think of one or two ideas, 01:33:02.840 --> 01:33:05.480 that would be good, or maybe an example 01:33:05.480 --> 01:33:07.880 that you have seen in your real life 01:33:07.880 --> 01:33:11.287 where you try to apply this and see, did not work. 01:33:11.287 --> 01:33:13.370 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: He wants you to be a white hat 01:33:13.370 --> 01:33:14.915 hacker of his work. 01:33:14.915 --> 01:33:17.982 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Yup, that'd be good. 01:33:17.982 --> 01:33:20.868 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: Find programming problems. 01:33:20.868 --> 01:33:21.910 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Exactly. 01:33:21.910 --> 01:33:26.680 So find a hole and then that will be very nice. 01:33:26.680 --> 01:33:28.240 That's the way ideas gets challenged. 01:33:28.240 --> 01:33:31.370 Otherwise, because you will stagnate. 01:33:31.370 --> 01:33:33.550 DR. GAIN: And also, apart from that, 01:33:33.550 --> 01:33:37.420 even if you have your own specific issue regarding 01:33:37.420 --> 01:33:41.080 water diplomacy that can be related to the theory 01:33:41.080 --> 01:33:43.030 that Shafik mentioned, you can also write him 01:33:43.030 --> 01:33:44.060 an email so that, yeah. 01:33:44.060 --> 01:33:45.310 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Sure, please. 01:33:45.310 --> 01:33:46.090 Please feel free. 01:33:46.090 --> 01:33:48.340 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: All right, I'm going to disappear. 01:33:48.340 --> 01:33:49.960 But thank you so much. 01:33:49.960 --> 01:33:51.060 PROFESSOR ISLAM: Thank you very much, Larry. 01:33:51.060 --> 01:33:52.477 PROFESSOR SUSSKIND: I look forward 01:33:52.477 --> 01:33:54.940 to the presentation starting next week. 01:33:54.940 --> 01:33:56.000 OK. 01:33:56.000 --> 01:33:56.560 Bye-bye. 01:33:56.560 --> 01:33:58.060 PROFESSOR ISLAM: All right. bye-bye. 01:33:58.060 --> 01:33:59.780 DR. GAIN: Yeah, thank you, thank you. 01:33:59.780 --> 01:34:01.630 AUDIENCE: Thank you.