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RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: OK.

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Social movements remind
you of the picture

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we had the first day,
and once or twice--

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I should have done
it more often since--

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but on the first day we've been
talking about policy making.

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We did on Monday.

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00:00:43,690 --> 00:00:45,310
We talked mainly
about interest groups

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00:00:45,310 --> 00:00:48,460
here, a little bit about
regulatory processes.

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00:00:48,460 --> 00:00:51,430
We'll come back to
that on Wednesday.

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00:00:51,430 --> 00:00:57,100
But up here at the top is
this vague outside the box--

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00:00:57,100 --> 00:01:01,600
outside these boxes, at least,
category of norms and customs

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00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:03,700
and values and traditions
and institutions

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00:01:03,700 --> 00:01:06,910
that we had movements in
their, social movements.

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And that's what we're
going to talk about today.

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00:01:09,140 --> 00:01:12,520
We're going to talk about
what they are, how they differ

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00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:16,840
from other policy
actors, how they work,

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00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,800
and briefly, what impacts can we
see on energy and environmental

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policy.

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00:01:22,700 --> 00:01:27,910
So if you think about
who effects policy,

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00:01:27,910 --> 00:01:31,420
there are obviously individual
firms or households.

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00:01:31,420 --> 00:01:35,560
And in the US setting
you have to think about

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for federal policy.

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00:01:36,562 --> 00:01:38,770
You have to think about some
federal governments that

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occasionally tribes.

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00:01:41,530 --> 00:01:43,090
What we talked
about last time were

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00:01:43,090 --> 00:01:46,210
all of these, this alphabet
soup of interest groups

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00:01:46,210 --> 00:01:48,640
that you will find on
K Street in Washington,

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00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,400
and you'll find various
analogs in state capitals.

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00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,500
Sometimes they fly in.

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00:01:53,500 --> 00:01:56,380
For those who don't live
in this world, that's

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00:01:56,380 --> 00:01:59,410
the National Rifle Association,
the American Forrest Products

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00:01:59,410 --> 00:02:03,730
Association, the Environmental
Defense Fund, the AFL/CIO,

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00:02:03,730 --> 00:02:06,670
the Union Organization,
the American Association

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00:02:06,670 --> 00:02:10,419
of Retired People, which sends
you mailings when you turn 50

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00:02:10,419 --> 00:02:12,370
to show you're really old.

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00:02:12,370 --> 00:02:14,920
The American Petroleum
Institute, the National Coal

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00:02:14,920 --> 00:02:16,600
Institute, and
there are many more.

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00:02:19,390 --> 00:02:23,140
Then there are
political parties.

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00:02:23,140 --> 00:02:25,540
Republican, Democrat,
or Democratic,

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00:02:25,540 --> 00:02:28,480
depending on which parity
you affiliate with.

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00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:32,140
Green parties in lots of places,
Whig parties in US history,

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00:02:32,140 --> 00:02:35,020
plenty of other parties
in various places.

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00:02:35,020 --> 00:02:37,840
And then social movements.

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00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,410
So the best way I find to
think about a social movement

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is to think about examples.

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00:02:45,010 --> 00:02:48,322
So as I go back to my
period of consciousness,

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there are a number of them
that come to mind, and let

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me just walk through a few.

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00:02:52,930 --> 00:02:55,120
There is the Civil
Rights Movement.

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That's the group gathering to
hear Dr. Martin Luther King.

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Not all those people were
paying dues to anything

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or had membership
cards to anything,

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but they had all
come to Washington.

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Most people would probably
call the Civil Rights

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Movement successful, maybe not.

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This is the Anti-Vietnam
War Movement.

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That, of course, is at MIT.

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This was in 1970.

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The picture-- and that's
some other campus,

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and this is Washington.

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The picture I looked for
very hard but couldn't find,

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and I know it
exists, is a picture

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of the then President
of MIT, Howard Johnson,

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marching with a
group of students

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down Mass Avenue with
an anti-war banner.

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00:03:45,270 --> 00:03:49,260
That movement, you might
call successful ultimately.

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But I'm going to
come back to this.

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You might ask, why?

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Most of those people were
too young to vote, so why was

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that movement successful?

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00:04:02,755 --> 00:04:04,380
Or did the movement
have anything to do

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00:04:04,380 --> 00:04:05,630
with ending the war, actually?

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This is the
environmental movement.

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That's an early rally.

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Senator Muskie in Washington--

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I think that's in Washington,
addressing a group.

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And the tree hugger on the
right, I couldn't resist.

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So there you've got the
environmental movement.

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Successful?

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Maybe, maybe not.

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Also, you'll notice one
of the interest groups

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I had up there was the
Environmental Defense Fund.

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00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,930
So one might want to think
about where that boundary is,

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00:04:33,930 --> 00:04:36,960
and we'll come back to that.

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The Women's Movement.

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00:04:39,450 --> 00:04:41,520
You see there, the--

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00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,790
I think that's the entirety
of the Equal Rights

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Amendment, for which
there was also opposition.

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00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,750
As regards the Equal
Rights Amendment,

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00:04:54,750 --> 00:04:56,880
you could argue that
was pretty successful.

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00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,510
Those-- you don't see
votes like that anymore.

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00:05:00,510 --> 00:05:02,760
The Equal Rights Amendment
phrased on the left

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00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:10,050
passed the House in 1972 354
to 24, in the Senate, 84 to 8.

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00:05:10,050 --> 00:05:14,400
That means there were a lot
of Republican votes for it.

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00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,800
30 states ratified it by the
end of 1973, but it failed.

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They needed 38 to pass.

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It got 35 by 1979.

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Never got to 30--

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all of these pieces of--

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00:05:31,075 --> 00:05:33,450
all of these amendments have
a deadline for ratification.

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00:05:33,450 --> 00:05:37,350
The deadline here was
'79, and it didn't make it

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00:05:37,350 --> 00:05:40,380
and some states
rescinded ratification.

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00:05:40,380 --> 00:05:42,510
And I don't think
you could get that--

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I don't think you could get that
Amendment voted on in Congress

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00:05:46,740 --> 00:05:49,020
now, let alone passed.

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00:05:49,020 --> 00:05:54,130
So you've got to ask, was
that movement successful?

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00:05:54,130 --> 00:05:55,060
That was a movement.

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00:05:55,060 --> 00:05:56,920
I mean, you got
troops turning out.

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00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:58,210
You got rallies.

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You got an anti movement.

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Was that movement successful?

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What did it do?

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This is a more recent one.

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You may recall the meetings of
the World Trade Organization,

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the International Organization
that basically sets trading

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rules for international trade.

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For a period, those
meetings were dangerous.

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00:06:20,300 --> 00:06:22,300
I don't know whether this
is the one in Seattle,

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but Downtown Seattle
got sort of trashed

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by people who were
protesting globalization,

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00:06:27,460 --> 00:06:32,020
protesting the WTO, which is
a bunch of bureaucrats who

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deal with trade disputes
and associated it

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with global injustice.

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1999.

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That movement failed.

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I think that's
fair to say, right?

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We have globalized.

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Trade has not turned
back, and that movement

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has pretty much vanished.

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How come?

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00:06:53,230 --> 00:06:56,410
How come some succeed
and some fail?

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This is the
anti-nuclear movement.

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00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:59,230
This is international.

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This is-- that's Germany,
[SPEAKING GERMAN]..

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That's Japan, and
that, of course,

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is Vermont, where the future
of the Vermont Yankee Nuclear

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00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,930
Plant is much debated.

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00:07:14,930 --> 00:07:16,768
Is that movement successful?

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That movement start--
well, I'm going

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to come back to that movement,
because we'll talk about that,

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00:07:20,852 --> 00:07:22,870
actually, at some length.

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00:07:22,870 --> 00:07:26,608
But that movement is global.

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A lot of power plants
have been built

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since that movement started,
a lot of nuclear plants still

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active.

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This is the anti-fracking
movement, more recently.

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That's New York, as you see.

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That's somewhere in Paris, and
that, I believe, is Bulgaria.

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So it, like the
anti-nuclear movement,

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is fairly broad geographically.

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Has succeeded in some places,
succeeded at least tentatively

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00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,498
in New York and in France.

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I have no idea what the
status is in Bulgaria.

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00:08:03,030 --> 00:08:06,570
The Tea Party movement,
look at those numbers.

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00:08:06,570 --> 00:08:08,970
Has the Tea Party movement
succeeded? will the Tea Party

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00:08:08,970 --> 00:08:09,690
movement last?

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00:08:09,690 --> 00:08:13,730
How does the Tea
Party movement work?

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00:08:13,730 --> 00:08:17,130
And, of course, on
the other side--

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by the way, that's impressive.

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That's Washington.

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That's Pennsylvania
Avenue full of people.

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00:08:24,590 --> 00:08:30,080
This is the opposite side of
the coin, the Occupy Movement.

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00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:39,350
Again, jobs not cuts whereas
the-- we want less over here.

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00:08:39,350 --> 00:08:42,799
And jobs not cuts over here.

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00:08:42,799 --> 00:08:47,630
So you have two opposed
social movements as we speak.

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And then most
dramatically, this is

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a good time for this topic, most
dramatically, the Arab Spring.

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So as you go around, there's
Tahrir Square in Egypt.

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There's Tunisia.

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00:09:05,430 --> 00:09:07,860
There's Yemen.

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00:09:07,860 --> 00:09:12,540
Government toppled, government
toppled, government toppled.

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00:09:12,540 --> 00:09:16,080
Bahrain, protests continuing.

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00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,930
Syria, Civil War.

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00:09:18,930 --> 00:09:22,430
Libya, government toppled.

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Social movements.

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OK, there are a lot of them.

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This is just one
slice of history,

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00:09:29,850 --> 00:09:32,340
a recent slice of history.

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I'm going to come back and
talk about some of them.

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00:09:36,850 --> 00:09:38,910
But the first thing we
ought to worry about

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00:09:38,910 --> 00:09:44,400
is, what are these things?

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How are they distinct
from other actors?

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00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,760
Certainly, they're trying
to influence policy.

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That's what they're there for.

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Not always in a
coherent way, not always

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00:09:56,310 --> 00:09:58,230
in a well-defined way.

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00:09:58,230 --> 00:10:05,470
The anti-globalization movement,
what exactly did they want?

195
00:10:05,470 --> 00:10:07,203
What's the Occupy Movement want?

196
00:10:07,203 --> 00:10:09,370
But in any case, they're
trying to-- not necessarily

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00:10:09,370 --> 00:10:10,840
with a specific
agenda, but they're

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00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,120
trying to have some influence.

199
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This is easy.

200
00:10:17,340 --> 00:10:19,210
I listed these
actors at the start.

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00:10:19,210 --> 00:10:21,420
They're not a formal
part of the process.

202
00:10:21,420 --> 00:10:22,530
They're not on the ballot.

203
00:10:22,530 --> 00:10:23,910
They're not registered.

204
00:10:23,910 --> 00:10:27,240
They don't have national
committees and slates

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00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:32,070
of candidates formally.

206
00:10:32,070 --> 00:10:35,280
The boundary between a social
movement and an interest group,

207
00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,500
though, and Burstein
talks about, this

208
00:10:37,500 --> 00:10:39,030
is a little blurrier, right?

209
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,440
[? Lowey, ?] whom
we read earlier,

210
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:48,960
has this italicized phrase,
which is interesting.

211
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,980
All established interest
groups are conservative.

212
00:10:53,980 --> 00:10:56,080
And he means conservative
not in the sense

213
00:10:56,080 --> 00:11:00,910
of left, right, in the sense
of less government, more

214
00:11:00,910 --> 00:11:03,370
government, but in the
old-fashioned sense

215
00:11:03,370 --> 00:11:06,710
of less change, more change.

216
00:11:06,710 --> 00:11:08,740
So he means they are
conservative in the sense

217
00:11:08,740 --> 00:11:11,420
that interest groups tend
to resist radical change.

218
00:11:11,420 --> 00:11:13,450
They're part of the system.

219
00:11:13,450 --> 00:11:16,780
The American Forrest
Products Association

220
00:11:16,780 --> 00:11:19,600
has some laws it likes, has
some laws it doesn't like,

221
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,610
lobbies here, lobbies there.

222
00:11:21,610 --> 00:11:25,180
If you said, let's fundamentally
rethink the way we do timber,

223
00:11:25,180 --> 00:11:28,575
they'd be appalled
because that's not

224
00:11:28,575 --> 00:11:31,940
what they're there for.

225
00:11:31,940 --> 00:11:32,440
OK.

226
00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:38,560
So that's-- and they also tend
to be more structured, right?

227
00:11:38,560 --> 00:11:41,620
The Environmental Defense Fund
has members, has a budget,

228
00:11:41,620 --> 00:11:45,160
has offices, has
lobbyists, writes papers.

229
00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,070
They do routine influence.

230
00:11:48,070 --> 00:11:49,210
They lobby.

231
00:11:49,210 --> 00:11:51,520
They enter briefs in court.

232
00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,180
They send in petitions.

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00:11:55,180 --> 00:11:58,690
Social movements tend
to be on the margins,

234
00:11:58,690 --> 00:12:00,700
tend to be on the
margins of the system.

235
00:12:00,700 --> 00:12:02,680
Membership is not well defined.

236
00:12:02,680 --> 00:12:05,800
Who was a member of the
Civil Rights Movement?

237
00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:07,870
Who was a member of
the anti-war movement,

238
00:12:07,870 --> 00:12:09,790
anti-Vietnam movement?

239
00:12:09,790 --> 00:12:11,620
Almost everybody I
knew did something.

240
00:12:11,620 --> 00:12:14,410
None of us had cards.

241
00:12:14,410 --> 00:12:17,650
And they tend to engage in what
you'd call non-routine actions,

242
00:12:17,650 --> 00:12:20,350
like marches and demonstrations
and chaining themselves

243
00:12:20,350 --> 00:12:24,040
to fences and all of that stuff.

244
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,860
They vary, resources,
organization, tactics.

245
00:12:26,860 --> 00:12:28,930
Greenpeace is an
interesting example, right?

246
00:12:28,930 --> 00:12:33,880
Greenpeace is noted for its
anti-whaling activities,

247
00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,900
has ships, intercepts,
interferes with whaling.

248
00:12:37,900 --> 00:12:40,240
That's a non-routine action.

249
00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:44,810
It also has lobbyists
in various capitals

250
00:12:44,810 --> 00:12:46,700
to push for various things.

251
00:12:46,700 --> 00:12:51,020
So Greenpeace is
an interest group

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00:12:51,020 --> 00:12:53,000
in the sense of being
organized and having

253
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:59,000
members and dues and
stuff, but it also

254
00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,930
engages in non-standard tactics.

255
00:13:02,930 --> 00:13:08,780
But all of the examples
social movements I had

256
00:13:08,780 --> 00:13:14,590
tend to be without a
defined membership.

257
00:13:14,590 --> 00:13:16,540
Who was part of the Arab Spring?

258
00:13:16,540 --> 00:13:17,800
Varied from day to day.

259
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,010
Who showed up for
the demonstrations?

260
00:13:21,010 --> 00:13:23,800
Who's part of the anti-Putin
movement, to the extent

261
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,750
it is a movement, in Russia?

262
00:13:25,750 --> 00:13:28,180
Who comes?

263
00:13:28,180 --> 00:13:29,830
Who was part of the
anti-war movement?

264
00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:31,580
Who was part of the
Civil Rights Movement?

265
00:13:31,580 --> 00:13:33,250
So the membership
tends to be unclear.

266
00:13:33,250 --> 00:13:37,090
The actions tend
to be non-standard.

267
00:13:37,090 --> 00:13:39,160
The anti-Vietnam
movement did engage

268
00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,530
in massive letter
writing campaigns,

269
00:13:41,530 --> 00:13:44,180
which is pretty standard.

270
00:13:44,180 --> 00:13:47,110
But it also occupied the
MIT president's office

271
00:13:47,110 --> 00:13:49,450
and various other University
presidents offices,

272
00:13:49,450 --> 00:13:51,970
which is pretty non-standard.

273
00:13:51,970 --> 00:13:54,850
So it's a mixture.

274
00:13:54,850 --> 00:13:58,650
Thoughts about this so far?

275
00:13:58,650 --> 00:14:01,230
OK.

276
00:14:01,230 --> 00:14:04,330
So how do they work
when they work?

277
00:14:04,330 --> 00:14:08,290
How might any of these
affect public policy?

278
00:14:08,290 --> 00:14:09,670
What are the mechanisms?

279
00:14:09,670 --> 00:14:11,620
Why do they matter?

280
00:14:11,620 --> 00:14:15,160
What do they ever matter?

281
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,660
What are they doing?

282
00:14:17,660 --> 00:14:19,033
Yeah?

283
00:14:19,033 --> 00:14:20,700
AUDIENCE: Sometimes,
it's trying to show

284
00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:22,530
that if a politician
does something

285
00:14:22,530 --> 00:14:24,720
that these social
movements-- or back

286
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,320
something these social
movements find distasteful,

287
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:33,256
unpopular, [INAUDIBLE]
less likely to get elected.

288
00:14:33,256 --> 00:14:37,298
[INAUDIBLE] an example might
be that [INAUDIBLE] People

289
00:14:37,298 --> 00:14:39,960
made it very clear that
this was not something

290
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,900
they supported, and so
politicians backed away

291
00:14:41,900 --> 00:14:42,890
from it.

292
00:14:42,890 --> 00:14:46,490
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: So one
mechanism is in a sense,

293
00:14:46,490 --> 00:14:54,740
they provide information or
they demonstrate salience.

294
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,520
Salience is awareness.

295
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,073
So an issue's salient
to me if I'm aware of it

296
00:15:13,073 --> 00:15:14,240
and I consider it important.

297
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,750
So you could argue that the
anti-Vietnam protests made

298
00:15:17,750 --> 00:15:21,950
it clear that, to at least
a segment of the population,

299
00:15:21,950 --> 00:15:25,040
all of us who could get
drafted, we were very

300
00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:26,880
aware of what was going on.

301
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,160
It was very important to us.

302
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:30,950
We felt strongly.

303
00:15:30,950 --> 00:15:34,820
OK, so they can provide
information about salience,

304
00:15:34,820 --> 00:15:37,070
about the population's feelings.

305
00:15:37,070 --> 00:15:40,980
How else might it work?

306
00:15:40,980 --> 00:15:41,690
Yeah, Brendan?

307
00:15:41,690 --> 00:15:42,960
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
You could just--

308
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,627
not necessarily
motivate the politician.

309
00:15:44,627 --> 00:15:48,222
You also motivate other
people to come on board.

310
00:15:48,222 --> 00:15:49,680
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
So you might--

311
00:15:54,490 --> 00:15:59,590
well, there are two ways
you might do that, right?

312
00:15:59,590 --> 00:16:02,020
One way is to
change preferences.

313
00:16:10,260 --> 00:16:13,790
You could persuade people that--

314
00:16:13,790 --> 00:16:17,540
by getting them to think about
it, that this group is right.

315
00:16:17,540 --> 00:16:20,300
You could argue that was a
large part of what Martin Luther

316
00:16:20,300 --> 00:16:25,050
King did, and the effective
leadership of the Civil Rights

317
00:16:25,050 --> 00:16:25,550
Movement.

318
00:16:25,550 --> 00:16:28,700
It persuaded a lot of people
that the current state

319
00:16:28,700 --> 00:16:33,530
of affairs was just
wrong, full stop, wrong.

320
00:16:33,530 --> 00:16:36,800
It blurs with raise salience.

321
00:16:43,990 --> 00:16:46,000
I think these two
are hard to separate,

322
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,670
because it could be that
an awful lot of people

323
00:16:48,670 --> 00:16:51,310
in the North were
unaware of just how

324
00:16:51,310 --> 00:16:53,830
segregated the South was.

325
00:16:53,830 --> 00:16:58,600
So you made people aware of
it by increasing awareness.

326
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,890
That works, of course,
if they agree with you.

327
00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:01,712
Charlotte?

328
00:17:01,712 --> 00:17:03,580
AUDIENCE: I also think
that, going along

329
00:17:03,580 --> 00:17:05,560
with the trend of getting
more people involved,

330
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,010
just having a group makes people
who already have that belief,

331
00:17:09,010 --> 00:17:11,260
maybe are already aware of
the issue, but just unaware

332
00:17:11,260 --> 00:17:13,329
of how they could affect
it, join together.

333
00:17:13,329 --> 00:17:17,235
And then it [INAUDIBLE] just
because there are more bodies.

334
00:17:17,235 --> 00:17:18,610
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
So this is--

335
00:17:18,610 --> 00:17:21,730
AUDIENCE: Like attract
people, I guess [INAUDIBLE]

336
00:17:21,730 --> 00:17:23,780
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: The-- yeah.

337
00:17:23,780 --> 00:17:24,280
Yeah.

338
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,510
The model Burstein
has is that works

339
00:17:26,510 --> 00:17:31,810
if it makes a politician
rethink, rethink

340
00:17:31,810 --> 00:17:34,100
their prospects.

341
00:17:34,100 --> 00:17:38,020
And so I guess I'd sort of
put that one in a way here.

342
00:17:38,020 --> 00:17:41,530
But you'd say it not only
demonstrates to politicians

343
00:17:41,530 --> 00:17:43,720
that a lot of people
care about, it

344
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,460
demonstrates to a
lot of other people

345
00:17:45,460 --> 00:17:46,700
that people care about it.

346
00:17:46,700 --> 00:17:50,170
And that's a lot of the story
of the Arab Spring, I think,

347
00:17:50,170 --> 00:17:52,840
is you've got a few
people who are just

348
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:57,550
sufficiently outraged that they
would risk getting shot at.

349
00:17:57,550 --> 00:17:59,900
And other people said,
well, I feel that way, too,

350
00:17:59,900 --> 00:18:03,500
and if they're going to do
that, maybe I should do that.

351
00:18:03,500 --> 00:18:06,760
And at some point you
demonstrate to the regime

352
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,880
that it lacks popular support.

353
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,360
And regimes that
aren't Democratic

354
00:18:13,360 --> 00:18:16,270
tend to not have much idea
how much support they have,

355
00:18:16,270 --> 00:18:19,115
and it's easy to exaggerate
how much support you have.

356
00:18:19,115 --> 00:18:20,740
Because every time
you go out in public

357
00:18:20,740 --> 00:18:22,930
and have a parade, people cheer.

358
00:18:22,930 --> 00:18:25,630
Because they-- why
wouldn't you cheer?

359
00:18:25,630 --> 00:18:27,143
The dictator's going by.

360
00:18:27,143 --> 00:18:28,060
So that's interesting.

361
00:18:28,060 --> 00:18:31,750
You can say it sort
of rallies people,

362
00:18:31,750 --> 00:18:37,660
and I think those are the most
plausible ways we've got them.

363
00:18:37,660 --> 00:18:42,970
The others-- Burstein
looks at people

364
00:18:42,970 --> 00:18:49,540
who argue that these
somehow persuade, as

365
00:18:49,540 --> 00:18:51,430
in a logical sense.

366
00:18:51,430 --> 00:18:53,650
But that's not
plausible, he says,

367
00:18:53,650 --> 00:18:58,752
and I agree with
him, that they're not

368
00:18:58,752 --> 00:19:00,460
going to-- you don't
march in the streets

369
00:19:00,460 --> 00:19:03,400
to make an
intellectual argument.

370
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,640
You march in the streets
to do something else.

371
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:12,890
And if it isn't going to
affect re-election, why bother?

372
00:19:12,890 --> 00:19:16,030
And if it is, why is
the group necessary

373
00:19:16,030 --> 00:19:17,620
if the person knows it?

374
00:19:17,620 --> 00:19:24,420
You could argue that the
anti-Vietnam demonstrations

375
00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:29,970
simply made it inescapable that
there was widespread opposition

376
00:19:29,970 --> 00:19:31,590
to the war.

377
00:19:31,590 --> 00:19:34,650
Public opinion polls
said the same thing,

378
00:19:34,650 --> 00:19:38,430
but marching in the streets made
us all feel better, of course.

379
00:19:38,430 --> 00:19:43,800
But also, brought it home.

380
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:49,830
The other point I'm making
here in that second bullet

381
00:19:49,830 --> 00:19:50,790
is donors.

382
00:19:50,790 --> 00:19:53,550
I mean, gun control is
an interesting example

383
00:19:53,550 --> 00:19:57,000
of the impact of salience
and the impact of an interest

384
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,620
group.

385
00:19:58,620 --> 00:20:01,560
Polls say that 70% of
Americans-- typically,

386
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,680
the number varies a little
bit, but 70% of Americans

387
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,320
would favor some gun
control, say limits

388
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:08,565
on assault weapons on campus.

389
00:20:11,340 --> 00:20:16,965
You-- or some restrictions
on carrying weapons.

390
00:20:19,860 --> 00:20:22,080
But most people don't care much.

391
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,750
Every police chief
favors gun control.

392
00:20:24,750 --> 00:20:27,000
Most people don't care much.

393
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,400
People who support
the National Rifle

394
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:33,630
Association, who oppose
gun control, care a lot,

395
00:20:33,630 --> 00:20:35,980
and they win.

396
00:20:35,980 --> 00:20:38,800
Because the fact that
I favor gun control

397
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:43,480
is not going to cause
me, in most cases,

398
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:48,010
to change my vote on anything,
because that's rarely

399
00:20:48,010 --> 00:20:50,240
a big campaign issue.

400
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,710
If I'm elected, I will enact--

401
00:20:53,710 --> 00:20:54,940
no.

402
00:20:54,940 --> 00:20:58,010
That's rarely a campaign issue.

403
00:20:58,010 --> 00:21:02,300
So those of us who care a
little bit don't do anything,

404
00:21:02,300 --> 00:21:07,910
and those who care a lot and
have some money have control.

405
00:21:07,910 --> 00:21:10,150
So that's a concentrated
interest diffuse interest

406
00:21:10,150 --> 00:21:14,570
example of some importance.

407
00:21:14,570 --> 00:21:17,500
So the other ways we talked
about providing information.

408
00:21:17,500 --> 00:21:21,970
You could argue that's
what happened in Vietnam.

409
00:21:21,970 --> 00:21:25,060
That's what happened
in East Germany.

410
00:21:25,060 --> 00:21:30,310
When-- I didn't put up
the demonstrations that

411
00:21:30,310 --> 00:21:33,970
brought down the Berlin Wall,
but as distinct from the Arab

412
00:21:33,970 --> 00:21:37,730
Spring, nobody got shot, right?

413
00:21:37,730 --> 00:21:38,750
That happened quickly.

414
00:21:38,750 --> 00:21:40,520
They talked about
the Velvet Revolution

415
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:47,380
in Czechoslovakia, talked
about in East Germany,

416
00:21:47,380 --> 00:21:49,390
nothing much happened.

417
00:21:49,390 --> 00:21:52,960
Crowds turned out,
crowds turned out.

418
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,660
They didn't seize the
government buildings.

419
00:21:55,660 --> 00:22:00,460
They didn't overrun the
president's or prime minister's

420
00:22:00,460 --> 00:22:02,060
house.

421
00:22:02,060 --> 00:22:04,730
The government just
gave up and left.

422
00:22:04,730 --> 00:22:09,420
So I think the argument
here is that they provided

423
00:22:09,420 --> 00:22:11,540
enormous amount of
information to voters

424
00:22:11,540 --> 00:22:15,170
that you have no support.

425
00:22:15,170 --> 00:22:18,020
You're loathed.

426
00:22:18,020 --> 00:22:21,440
Changing preferences.

427
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,570
This often has to do
with reframing an issue.

428
00:22:24,570 --> 00:22:28,510
Think about the
pro-life movement,

429
00:22:28,510 --> 00:22:31,610
which is a brilliant
piece of reframing.

430
00:22:31,610 --> 00:22:34,072
How can you be against life?

431
00:22:34,072 --> 00:22:36,280
I mean, you're for choice,
but what's more important,

432
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:37,730
choice or life?

433
00:22:37,730 --> 00:22:40,570
So you could argue that
reframing the issue as,

434
00:22:40,570 --> 00:22:47,340
are you for or against life,
has an impact on preferences.

435
00:22:47,340 --> 00:22:49,930
The attacks on the
health care legislation

436
00:22:49,930 --> 00:22:54,730
by making it Obama's legislation
as opposed to, by the way,

437
00:22:54,730 --> 00:22:57,340
no pre-existing condition,
universal insurance, blah,

438
00:22:57,340 --> 00:23:00,310
blah, blah, changes
how it's thought of.

439
00:23:00,310 --> 00:23:02,860
It's something Obama is
shoving down our throats.

440
00:23:06,340 --> 00:23:09,564
And you can argue that
Civil Rights did that,

441
00:23:09,564 --> 00:23:13,300
that that was the essence of
the Civil Rights Movement.

442
00:23:13,300 --> 00:23:19,390
That if you saw in real time
the marchers being taken down

443
00:23:19,390 --> 00:23:24,340
with fire hoses, it was hard
not to think, that's just wrong.

444
00:23:24,340 --> 00:23:25,600
These people are marching.

445
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,610
How can they--
why is that right?

446
00:23:27,610 --> 00:23:30,880
So and you don't do--

447
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:38,300
King's speeches were important,
but watching people peacefully

448
00:23:38,300 --> 00:23:43,130
protest being beaten changes
your views of the people

449
00:23:43,130 --> 00:23:45,560
beating them and of the issue.

450
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,260
So part of what they
do social movements

451
00:23:48,260 --> 00:23:51,290
is theater that changes
preferences as well

452
00:23:51,290 --> 00:23:57,290
as signals information.

453
00:23:57,290 --> 00:24:02,330
You can raise salience by
making people aware of an issue,

454
00:24:02,330 --> 00:24:06,740
but it only works if they
agree with you, right?

455
00:24:06,740 --> 00:24:09,070
I mean, think about
globalization,

456
00:24:09,070 --> 00:24:12,040
the anti-globalization movement.

457
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,320
So they protested globalization.

458
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,980
They protested poor working
conditions in poor countries,

459
00:24:17,980 --> 00:24:21,310
and they trashed Starbucks.

460
00:24:21,310 --> 00:24:23,890
And most people said what?

461
00:24:23,890 --> 00:24:26,845
I'm sorry.

462
00:24:26,845 --> 00:24:29,440
If you're very sympathetic to
poor people, you say, yeah.

463
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,107
They should pay people
more in poor countries.

464
00:24:32,107 --> 00:24:33,690
And if you're not,
you say, well, they

465
00:24:33,690 --> 00:24:35,273
don't have to take
the jobs, you know?

466
00:24:35,273 --> 00:24:39,220
I mean, they're not being forced
to work in these factories.

467
00:24:39,220 --> 00:24:41,600
It's more fun than
being in a village.

468
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:49,540
So the example-- one of the
optional readings, C and G--

469
00:24:49,540 --> 00:24:51,370
I forget now what
their initials are--

470
00:24:51,370 --> 00:24:54,250
make the point that
among people who

471
00:24:54,250 --> 00:24:56,950
are for environmental
change and who

472
00:24:56,950 --> 00:25:01,240
were opposed to environmental
change in a survey,

473
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:05,900
awareness of environmental
issues was equal.

474
00:25:05,900 --> 00:25:08,480
Values differed.

475
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,630
So the policy
implications differed.

476
00:25:11,630 --> 00:25:13,400
So you make people
aware that there's

477
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,400
a lot of international trade,
and a lot of what you buy

478
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,790
is produced by people
in poor countries,

479
00:25:19,790 --> 00:25:21,890
one response is,
that's really terrible.

480
00:25:21,890 --> 00:25:25,400
Another response is,
well, that's a market.

481
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,010
And if people
mainly think, that's

482
00:25:28,010 --> 00:25:33,110
a market because
that's what they value,

483
00:25:33,110 --> 00:25:36,760
making them more aware
of an issue won't help.

484
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,430
You could argue the same thing
happens with climate change.

485
00:25:40,430 --> 00:25:42,370
There's been a lot of work--

486
00:25:42,370 --> 00:25:45,040
I wouldn't call it a movement,
but an awful lot of people

487
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,520
have spent a lot of time
trying to educate people

488
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,470
about climate change.

489
00:25:50,470 --> 00:25:52,780
It has not produced
a groundswell.

490
00:25:52,780 --> 00:25:55,340
Quite the contrary.

491
00:25:55,340 --> 00:25:59,770
And the argument is that
it comes up against it's

492
00:25:59,770 --> 00:26:01,420
a conflict of values.

493
00:26:01,420 --> 00:26:04,060
Do you want to have
economic growth,

494
00:26:04,060 --> 00:26:06,440
or do you want to have
environmental protection?

495
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:10,990
We can both be aware of
climate change and its issues,

496
00:26:10,990 --> 00:26:14,360
but reach very different
policy conclusions.

497
00:26:14,360 --> 00:26:19,270
So raising salience only
works, raising awareness

498
00:26:19,270 --> 00:26:25,710
only works if there's agreement
or potential agreement,

499
00:26:25,710 --> 00:26:29,700
or something like agreement.

500
00:26:29,700 --> 00:26:33,838
And the final way, and
this is the borderline--

501
00:26:33,838 --> 00:26:35,255
this isn't really
social movement.

502
00:26:35,255 --> 00:26:39,060
I think the Burstein article
is, nonetheless, a good article.

503
00:26:39,060 --> 00:26:42,090
For interest groups, how do
interest groups affect policy?

504
00:26:42,090 --> 00:26:45,540
Well, they do all this
other stuff, right?

505
00:26:45,540 --> 00:26:49,740
The National Rifle Association
does advertise, does--

506
00:26:49,740 --> 00:26:52,410
the Environmental Defense
Fund does send out mailings

507
00:26:52,410 --> 00:26:54,330
to people, so these
people do engage

508
00:26:54,330 --> 00:26:59,400
in the organized petition
drives that do all this.

509
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:04,880
But interest groups
work on implementation.

510
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,460
That's inside baseball, right?

511
00:27:07,460 --> 00:27:11,810
So we'll talk about it
in the environmental case

512
00:27:11,810 --> 00:27:14,780
next time when we
talk about what

513
00:27:14,780 --> 00:27:20,210
EPA did to set standards
a couple of times.

514
00:27:20,210 --> 00:27:25,160
But the Dodd-Frank law is the
big current example, right?

515
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,410
You can read about it in
the paper all the time.

516
00:27:27,410 --> 00:27:31,835
The law required lots
of regulations, set up

517
00:27:31,835 --> 00:27:34,430
some new entities, and it
required this regulation,

518
00:27:34,430 --> 00:27:35,180
that regulation.

519
00:27:35,180 --> 00:27:38,000
Spell this out, make
this clear, hundreds,

520
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,880
thousands of
regulations required.

521
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,860
No votes in Congress.

522
00:27:43,860 --> 00:27:48,040
Really, really boring stuff.

523
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,050
Who wins?

524
00:27:50,050 --> 00:27:54,070
The people who have
offices in Washington,

525
00:27:54,070 --> 00:27:57,670
who have lawyers, who have
staff, who have resources.

526
00:27:57,670 --> 00:28:01,090
It's not a matter of buying
votes in regulatory agencies.

527
00:28:01,090 --> 00:28:02,920
It's a matter of
providing information,

528
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,850
lobbying, per the piece we
had assigned for last time.

529
00:28:09,460 --> 00:28:14,710
When the issue has low
salience to the public--

530
00:28:14,710 --> 00:28:17,920
interchange fees
on debit cards I

531
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,310
will tell you exercise the
entire banking industry,

532
00:28:21,310 --> 00:28:23,770
and it may have
been in the Globe

533
00:28:23,770 --> 00:28:28,480
twice on the third
business page.

534
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,840
Every banker in the
country was up in arms.

535
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:37,180
The Federal Reserve was
required to regulate that.

536
00:28:37,180 --> 00:28:40,750
It had enormous discretion.

537
00:28:40,750 --> 00:28:44,320
It was required to regulate
that fee paying due attention

538
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,240
to incremental costs.

539
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,090
Incremental costs
varied all over the lot.

540
00:28:49,090 --> 00:28:52,840
Hundreds of submissions went
into the Federal Reserve.

541
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:53,840
They made a decision.

542
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:54,930
Yeah?

543
00:28:54,930 --> 00:28:57,272
AUDIENCE: So that's the
Durbin Amendment, right?

544
00:28:57,272 --> 00:28:59,230
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: The
Durbin Amendment, yep.

545
00:28:59,230 --> 00:29:00,950
AUDIENCE: So when that--

546
00:29:00,950 --> 00:29:04,810
so when that was approved,
the fact that, for instance,

547
00:29:04,810 --> 00:29:07,210
Bank of America started
charging monthly fee

548
00:29:07,210 --> 00:29:08,710
for people when
they use their debit

549
00:29:08,710 --> 00:29:11,530
card to try to offset the
fact that they couldn't make

550
00:29:11,530 --> 00:29:15,302
as much money from
marginal cost--

551
00:29:15,302 --> 00:29:17,260
like the marginal revenue
that they had before.

552
00:29:17,260 --> 00:29:18,343
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Yeah.

553
00:29:18,343 --> 00:29:20,920
AUDIENCE: But wouldn't that
cause people to care a lot?

554
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,045
Because at the end of the
day, the regular customer

555
00:29:23,045 --> 00:29:25,750
was the one who kind of got
screwed over a little bit,

556
00:29:25,750 --> 00:29:29,230
and the merchants
were the ones who won.

557
00:29:29,230 --> 00:29:32,140
But wouldn't
eventually like people

558
00:29:32,140 --> 00:29:33,787
be against the Dodd-Frank?

559
00:29:33,787 --> 00:29:36,245
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Well, you
mean against that Amendment.

560
00:29:36,245 --> 00:29:37,000
AUDIENCE: Yeah, yeah.

561
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:38,750
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Well, I mean here's--

562
00:29:41,420 --> 00:29:46,930
here are the-- this was a
fight in which I participated.

563
00:29:46,930 --> 00:29:50,080
Here's what happens
in the short run.

564
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,920
What happens in the short run
is merchants save a little bit

565
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,960
on debit card transactions.

566
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,810
Not enough to cause
them to cut prices,

567
00:29:58,810 --> 00:30:00,700
because it's only a little bit.

568
00:30:00,700 --> 00:30:05,905
So one person, one large chain
said on a conference call--

569
00:30:05,905 --> 00:30:07,030
I think it was Home Depot--

570
00:30:07,030 --> 00:30:09,010
said on a conference
call that that

571
00:30:09,010 --> 00:30:12,820
was worth about $100 million
to them, short run profits.

572
00:30:12,820 --> 00:30:14,740
So prices don't go down.

573
00:30:14,740 --> 00:30:17,050
What happens to
banks is checking

574
00:30:17,050 --> 00:30:19,700
accounts are now
less profitable,

575
00:30:19,700 --> 00:30:23,200
so they look to
recoup in other ways.

576
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,600
They tried the monthly fee.

577
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:26,470
That didn't work.

578
00:30:26,470 --> 00:30:30,490
The easiest thing to do, and
what they've done quietly,

579
00:30:30,490 --> 00:30:32,620
is they've raised the
minimum balances required

580
00:30:32,620 --> 00:30:35,740
for free checking.

581
00:30:35,740 --> 00:30:38,050
And we'll see the
numbers, but checking,

582
00:30:38,050 --> 00:30:42,520
because of these fees, if
you use the debit card a lot,

583
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,380
the bank is--

584
00:30:44,380 --> 00:30:46,690
you're profitable to the
bank even if you don't leave

585
00:30:46,690 --> 00:30:49,120
a lot of money on deposit.

586
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,070
Take away those fees,
you're no longer profitable.

587
00:30:52,070 --> 00:30:54,070
So they start raising
the minimum requirement

588
00:30:54,070 --> 00:30:55,900
for free checking,
and the number

589
00:30:55,900 --> 00:30:58,950
of people without
checking accounts goes up.

590
00:30:58,950 --> 00:31:01,260
So, I mean, that's the
predictable consequence

591
00:31:01,260 --> 00:31:03,450
of the amendment.

592
00:31:03,450 --> 00:31:11,127
It was pushed by merchants,
and Senator Durbin

593
00:31:11,127 --> 00:31:13,710
talked about his friend, I think
it was a hardware store owner

594
00:31:13,710 --> 00:31:17,280
or drug store owner, who was
being taken to the cleaners

595
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:17,980
by these fees.

596
00:31:17,980 --> 00:31:20,010
So he's presumably happy.

597
00:31:20,010 --> 00:31:22,920
In the long run, costs
get passed through.

598
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:24,990
It's just they're frictions
to changing prices,

599
00:31:24,990 --> 00:31:28,110
so in the short run they don't.

600
00:31:28,110 --> 00:31:31,140
In the long run,
prices adjust up.

601
00:31:31,140 --> 00:31:37,150
People pay slightly
more if they use cash.

602
00:31:37,150 --> 00:31:40,950
So-- but this is a typical--

603
00:31:40,950 --> 00:31:45,550
this is a-- this is an
extreme piece of legislation.

604
00:31:45,550 --> 00:31:48,810
It was not debated, really.

605
00:31:48,810 --> 00:31:49,940
It got a floor vote--

606
00:31:49,940 --> 00:31:56,850
a quick floor vote, not much
material on it anywhere.

607
00:31:56,850 --> 00:31:58,710
It said to the Federal
Reserve, neglect

608
00:31:58,710 --> 00:32:02,005
the fixed costs of running these
programs when you set a price.

609
00:32:02,005 --> 00:32:04,350
Wait, what?

610
00:32:04,350 --> 00:32:05,850
They have to cover
the fixed cost.

611
00:32:05,850 --> 00:32:09,570
OK, neglect the fixed costs,
and it instructed the Fed

612
00:32:09,570 --> 00:32:11,010
to consider marginal cost.

613
00:32:11,010 --> 00:32:13,200
The Fed ran a survey.

614
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,840
Marginal costs varied by
roughly an order of magnitude

615
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,640
across banks.

616
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,610
OK, now what do you do?

617
00:32:20,610 --> 00:32:24,180
And they came out
with a proposed rule.

618
00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:26,010
There was the expected howling.

619
00:32:26,010 --> 00:32:28,810
They doubled the ceiling.

620
00:32:28,810 --> 00:32:29,970
There was less howling.

621
00:32:29,970 --> 00:32:31,170
Life goes on.

622
00:32:31,170 --> 00:32:33,570
But yeah, it'll have
the effect of increasing

623
00:32:33,570 --> 00:32:35,650
the number of unbanked people.

624
00:32:35,650 --> 00:32:37,230
It's not as serious
as it used to be

625
00:32:37,230 --> 00:32:40,560
not to have a bank account,
but it's still pretty serious.

626
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:41,967
So yeah.

627
00:32:41,967 --> 00:32:43,800
The Durbin Amendment,
you follow this stuff.

628
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:45,090
That's amazing.

629
00:32:45,090 --> 00:32:47,130
It's not even energy.

630
00:32:47,130 --> 00:32:49,410
Anything else while I pause
for breath and anecdote?

631
00:32:49,410 --> 00:32:49,910
Yeah?

632
00:32:49,910 --> 00:32:52,118
AUDIENCE: Can you tell us
a little bit about the role

633
00:32:52,118 --> 00:32:54,090
that social media has
paid like how to mobilize

634
00:32:54,090 --> 00:32:55,450
all these different publics?

635
00:32:55,450 --> 00:33:01,210
Like, I can see with Occupy Wall
Street and Occupy Everything

636
00:33:01,210 --> 00:33:02,460
how [INAUDIBLE] come together.

637
00:33:02,460 --> 00:33:02,973
I saw that.

638
00:33:02,973 --> 00:33:04,890
But something like the
Civil Rights Movement--

639
00:33:04,890 --> 00:33:06,855
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: But it's
a little less clear, isn't it,

640
00:33:06,855 --> 00:33:07,650
how--

641
00:33:07,650 --> 00:33:10,320
the Occupy Movement,
I find mysterious.

642
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:11,910
Because the Civil
Rights Movement

643
00:33:11,910 --> 00:33:14,310
had a set of
charismatic leaders.

644
00:33:14,310 --> 00:33:18,000
It had some clear objectives,
and it had great media

645
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,770
coverage, right?

646
00:33:19,770 --> 00:33:23,790
I mean, when those
kids went to-- where

647
00:33:23,790 --> 00:33:27,210
was it that the Civil
rights workers got shot?

648
00:33:27,210 --> 00:33:28,830
Selma, maybe?

649
00:33:28,830 --> 00:33:30,810
Boy, that coverage of
three college students

650
00:33:30,810 --> 00:33:33,060
go down to help the
black community organize

651
00:33:33,060 --> 00:33:37,620
in Selma, Alabama and get shot
for their troubles, that woke

652
00:33:37,620 --> 00:33:40,020
people up in an amazing way.

653
00:33:40,020 --> 00:33:43,920
And when you watch them
fire hose the marchers,

654
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,210
that was galvanizing.

655
00:33:45,210 --> 00:33:49,380
And when Dr. Martin Luther
King spoke, that was, oh, gee.

656
00:33:49,380 --> 00:33:51,180
There is something here.

657
00:33:51,180 --> 00:33:53,610
Occupy was mysterious.

658
00:33:53,610 --> 00:33:55,995
Occupy just happened.

659
00:33:55,995 --> 00:33:57,418
I don't know.

660
00:33:57,418 --> 00:33:57,960
I don't know.

661
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:03,330
These things-- and the
anti-globalization, similarly.

662
00:34:03,330 --> 00:34:07,680
What was-- I can point
to triggering events.

663
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:11,130
You go back to the
Rosa Parks refusing

664
00:34:11,130 --> 00:34:15,780
to sit in the back of the bus,
people moving into integrated

665
00:34:15,780 --> 00:34:19,610
lunch counters, all of this
getting media attention.

666
00:34:19,610 --> 00:34:21,780
I can see-- the triggering
events in Civil Rights

667
00:34:21,780 --> 00:34:22,280
were clear.

668
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,969
The triggering event in
Vietnam was pretty clear.

669
00:34:24,969 --> 00:34:30,670
It just went on and on, and
thinking about thousands

670
00:34:30,670 --> 00:34:32,560
of people chanting,
hey, hey, LBJ.

671
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,804
How many kids did
you kill today?

672
00:34:35,804 --> 00:34:37,179
Those are pretty
dramatic things.

673
00:34:37,179 --> 00:34:41,637
But Occupy, I don't know
what triggered Occupy.

674
00:34:41,637 --> 00:34:43,929
I also don't know what
triggered the anti-globalization

675
00:34:43,929 --> 00:34:45,760
movement.

676
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,110
We know the Arab Spring.

677
00:34:47,110 --> 00:34:49,090
We know it was the--

678
00:34:49,090 --> 00:34:51,190
normally, there's something.

679
00:34:51,190 --> 00:34:54,070
The guy in Tunisia who burned
himself to death in protest.

680
00:34:54,070 --> 00:34:56,860
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
but like how people

681
00:34:56,860 --> 00:34:58,330
are mobilizing come together.

682
00:34:58,330 --> 00:35:00,020
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Well, now you--

683
00:35:00,020 --> 00:35:02,620
now people point
to, particularly

684
00:35:02,620 --> 00:35:06,970
in the case of Egypt, it was
much discussed social media.

685
00:35:06,970 --> 00:35:09,700
You can organize through
Twitter and Facebook

686
00:35:09,700 --> 00:35:12,460
and various other
connections, and just things

687
00:35:12,460 --> 00:35:15,310
going viral in a variety
of ways through people's

688
00:35:15,310 --> 00:35:16,600
personal networks.

689
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,610
You can organize.

690
00:35:18,610 --> 00:35:20,590
Vietnam was posters.

691
00:35:20,590 --> 00:35:22,490
There will be a rally today,

692
00:35:22,490 --> 00:35:25,050
AUDIENCE: There was a
leader that called it all.

693
00:35:25,050 --> 00:35:26,800
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
There were people who

694
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,415
appointed themselves leaders.

695
00:35:28,415 --> 00:35:30,040
You put up a poster
and you say there's

696
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,010
going to be a demonstration
today in [INAUDIBLE] well,

697
00:35:33,010 --> 00:35:38,410
it was then the great court,
nobody had to show up.

698
00:35:38,410 --> 00:35:40,960
If people weren't
ready to do something,

699
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,720
you can imagine calling
a rally and nobody comes.

700
00:35:43,720 --> 00:35:44,860
That happens often enough.

701
00:35:50,290 --> 00:35:54,713
This, as far as I know,
and undoubtedly there's--

702
00:35:54,713 --> 00:35:56,380
people have written
boring papers on it,

703
00:35:56,380 --> 00:35:59,290
but it strikes me just
as an observer of history

704
00:35:59,290 --> 00:36:01,840
that it's a bit
mysterious what does it.

705
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:03,010
It's a bit mysterious.

706
00:36:03,010 --> 00:36:09,790
So guy burns himself
to death in Tunisia.

707
00:36:09,790 --> 00:36:11,910
Why does that spread?

708
00:36:11,910 --> 00:36:13,530
What triggers that?

709
00:36:13,530 --> 00:36:16,860
Did somebody in Egypt set
himself up or herself up

710
00:36:16,860 --> 00:36:18,540
as a leader and began
saying, hey, we're

711
00:36:18,540 --> 00:36:20,340
going to meet in
the square tomorrow,

712
00:36:20,340 --> 00:36:24,240
and then gradually it
built. It did build

713
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:28,090
from a relatively small group.

714
00:36:28,090 --> 00:36:33,220
But in Moscow, there are
protests that have lost,

715
00:36:33,220 --> 00:36:34,360
have plainly lost.

716
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,110
Their anti-Putin protests
in Russia, they were small.

717
00:36:38,110 --> 00:36:39,640
I don't know how they happened.

718
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:40,690
They weren't sufficient.

719
00:36:40,690 --> 00:36:42,670
They dissipated.

720
00:36:42,670 --> 00:36:44,843
So it doesn't always happen.

721
00:36:44,843 --> 00:36:45,760
Doesn't always happen.

722
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,010
Andrew?

723
00:36:48,010 --> 00:36:51,340
AUDIENCE: Just as-- it
might be an extreme,

724
00:36:51,340 --> 00:36:54,080
could someone argue
that, especially

725
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:58,270
in, say, for the Arab Spring
movements, that violence

726
00:36:58,270 --> 00:37:00,960
or the threat of
violence, or blackmail

727
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:05,410
or the threat of just
physically destroying something

728
00:37:05,410 --> 00:37:08,640
is a means of affecting
public policy?

729
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,800
So not votes, just
the fact that there's

730
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,975
a big body out there that will
affect the way the country

731
00:37:14,975 --> 00:37:15,475
is run.

732
00:37:15,475 --> 00:37:18,520
So let's read their demands.

733
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,320
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Well, a standard thing

734
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,710
that happens, although in France
it tends to be well organized,

735
00:37:23,710 --> 00:37:25,810
mass strikes.

736
00:37:25,810 --> 00:37:28,870
You can call it-- you
call a general strike.

737
00:37:28,870 --> 00:37:31,420
And if the general
strike is effective,

738
00:37:31,420 --> 00:37:34,305
you've demonstrated
that you have the--

739
00:37:34,305 --> 00:37:35,680
that enough--
you've demonstrated

740
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,980
there are enough people
care enough about the issue

741
00:37:38,980 --> 00:37:39,880
to do something.

742
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,230
I don't know if it has
to be physical violence,

743
00:37:42,230 --> 00:37:44,050
but I think it has
to be an action.

744
00:37:44,050 --> 00:37:47,210
Because that's how you
demonstrate that you care,

745
00:37:47,210 --> 00:37:47,710
right?

746
00:37:47,710 --> 00:37:50,380
I mean, now, of course, you
just send an email to Congress.

747
00:37:50,380 --> 00:37:52,005
No, that doesn't
really say that you're

748
00:37:52,005 --> 00:37:54,280
very excited about the issue.

749
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:55,720
If you go out and
march, you stand

750
00:37:55,720 --> 00:37:58,210
in the hot sun for a few
hours, it demonstrates it.

751
00:38:02,140 --> 00:38:03,850
The story of the
Civil Rights Movement

752
00:38:03,850 --> 00:38:05,620
is kind of the reverse, right?

753
00:38:05,620 --> 00:38:10,540
There was no threat of
violence from the activists.

754
00:38:10,540 --> 00:38:14,560
It was the violence from
those acting against them

755
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:15,940
that really built support.

756
00:38:15,940 --> 00:38:19,330
It was Dr. King's
nonviolent strategy

757
00:38:19,330 --> 00:38:23,980
which worked beyond
anything I've seen.

758
00:38:23,980 --> 00:38:27,670
In the anti-Vietnam, people
were pretty nonviolent, too.

759
00:38:27,670 --> 00:38:30,880
I don't think it mattered much.

760
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,160
Occupy has been nonviolent.

761
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:37,570
The Tea Party, been a little
shrill but nonviolent.

762
00:38:37,570 --> 00:38:40,360
Tea Party's had some effect
politically in the Republican

763
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:40,990
Party.

764
00:38:40,990 --> 00:38:45,670
The Occupy Movement seems to
have vanished in the night.

765
00:38:45,670 --> 00:38:48,514
So it's a little bit mysterious.

766
00:38:48,514 --> 00:38:50,940
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] because
you mentioned strikes.

767
00:38:50,940 --> 00:38:55,680
Because one another where
would that category [INAUDIBLE]

768
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,040
So say some people
said, I don't know,

769
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,790
like tomorrow all
bus drivers decided

770
00:39:00,790 --> 00:39:01,980
that they want to strike.

771
00:39:01,980 --> 00:39:05,910
So for some reason actually
that's more pertinent in Europe

772
00:39:05,910 --> 00:39:08,460
where transportation is, but
I guess I've seen it happen.

773
00:39:08,460 --> 00:39:09,960
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Those are those

774
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:11,280
tend to be very heavily union.

775
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,460
That's why I talked
about a general strike.

776
00:39:13,460 --> 00:39:16,440
AUDIENCE: So I was going
to say, even for a union.

777
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,860
So because it's a
relatively small body,

778
00:39:18,860 --> 00:39:22,170
but because it exhibits a big--

779
00:39:22,170 --> 00:39:24,060
a lot of power and
the fact that we

780
00:39:24,060 --> 00:39:27,350
will have buses or
the subway tomorrow,

781
00:39:27,350 --> 00:39:33,840
will bother a bigger
majority of people.

782
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,060
And basically, that's
almost like blackmail.

783
00:39:36,060 --> 00:39:39,292
So you're influencing what
the majority of people

784
00:39:39,292 --> 00:39:40,500
is thinking about this issue.

785
00:39:40,500 --> 00:39:43,500
It's not that it's
directly influencing

786
00:39:43,500 --> 00:39:46,543
what you're asking for, which
could be wages for bus drivers.

787
00:39:46,543 --> 00:39:48,960
But they're so frustrated that
we don't have buses, so OK,

788
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,730
let's give them the
wages because they're

789
00:39:50,730 --> 00:39:51,480
causing all this--

790
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:52,500
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
But it can fail.

791
00:39:52,500 --> 00:39:53,220
It could fail.

792
00:39:53,220 --> 00:39:55,020
There was a-- I was
reading recently

793
00:39:55,020 --> 00:39:59,190
a fictionalized treatment of the
famous police strike in Boston

794
00:39:59,190 --> 00:40:00,990
in 1919.

795
00:40:00,990 --> 00:40:03,420
That strike, police
hadn't been paid.

796
00:40:03,420 --> 00:40:06,030
They were underpaid, hadn't
gotten a raise in 30 years

797
00:40:06,030 --> 00:40:08,670
kind of thing, badly underpaid.

798
00:40:08,670 --> 00:40:09,780
They struck.

799
00:40:09,780 --> 00:40:12,570
There was a crime wave.

800
00:40:12,570 --> 00:40:15,420
The police completely
lost the popular sympathy,

801
00:40:15,420 --> 00:40:19,420
and lots of them were fired and
jailed and all kinds of things.

802
00:40:19,420 --> 00:40:20,910
So that was the threat.

803
00:40:20,910 --> 00:40:22,680
They carried out the threat.

804
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:27,630
People got very, very angry,
made Calvin Coolidge president

805
00:40:27,630 --> 00:40:32,050
because of how drastically he
reacted against the strike.

806
00:40:32,050 --> 00:40:37,830
So it's not necessarily
a winning strategy.

807
00:40:37,830 --> 00:40:41,338
It's not necessarily
a winning strategy.

808
00:40:41,338 --> 00:40:41,880
Another hand?

809
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:42,433
Yeah?

810
00:40:42,433 --> 00:40:44,850
AUDIENCE: I'm confused by the
difference between the first

811
00:40:44,850 --> 00:40:46,477
and the second strategies.

812
00:40:46,477 --> 00:40:48,060
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
The first-- yeah.

813
00:40:48,060 --> 00:40:49,620
I must say reading
that reading the paper,

814
00:40:49,620 --> 00:40:51,620
I was a little confused
about his argument, too.

815
00:40:51,620 --> 00:40:55,650
He said, well, can you
just walk in and say,

816
00:40:55,650 --> 00:40:57,450
I'm opposed to the Vietnam War.

817
00:40:57,450 --> 00:41:02,310
I've got-- there are bunch of
us and here are my arguments.

818
00:41:02,310 --> 00:41:05,640
And I think what he's saying
is, that's not going to work.

819
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,870
Social movements
work by demonstrating

820
00:41:09,870 --> 00:41:14,070
that it matters
to enough people,

821
00:41:14,070 --> 00:41:16,050
that you have to
take it into account.

822
00:41:16,050 --> 00:41:19,290
And if the policymaker
knows that it

823
00:41:19,290 --> 00:41:21,510
matters enough to
a lot of people,

824
00:41:21,510 --> 00:41:23,870
you don't need a
social movement.

825
00:41:23,870 --> 00:41:25,620
And if it doesn't--

826
00:41:25,620 --> 00:41:30,250
Occupy-- if it doesn't, the
movement won't have any effect.

827
00:41:30,250 --> 00:41:32,430
I think that's what he's saying.

828
00:41:32,430 --> 00:41:34,620
In my money, in
social movements,

829
00:41:34,620 --> 00:41:38,820
what you want to think about
is to think about these three.

830
00:41:38,820 --> 00:41:42,420
Are you persuading people
that a lot of people care?

831
00:41:42,420 --> 00:41:45,210
Are you making-- changing
people's preferences

832
00:41:45,210 --> 00:41:46,110
toward an issue?

833
00:41:46,110 --> 00:41:48,690
Are you making them
more aware of an issue

834
00:41:48,690 --> 00:41:50,850
and making it more important?

835
00:41:50,850 --> 00:41:52,770
You could be aware of fracking.

836
00:41:52,770 --> 00:41:55,800
You could make it more important
in people's-- in people's minds

837
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,120
by providing information.

838
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,190
You could raise salience
either by awareness

839
00:41:59,190 --> 00:42:02,670
or on the important side.

840
00:42:02,670 --> 00:42:05,580
And this is an inside
baseball story.

841
00:42:05,580 --> 00:42:07,770
So I share your confusion
about the first.

842
00:42:07,770 --> 00:42:10,400
I confess, I read his
argument on the first one

843
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,450
and I said, well, what
would that look like?

844
00:42:14,450 --> 00:42:21,570
The closest thing I can
think of is maybe in Vietnam

845
00:42:21,570 --> 00:42:23,550
there was some
persuasion, but I think

846
00:42:23,550 --> 00:42:26,850
what Vietnam was
all about was this,

847
00:42:26,850 --> 00:42:30,690
was letting people know that
a large part of the population

848
00:42:30,690 --> 00:42:32,160
was passionate.

849
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:34,650
And that's what happened
in Czechoslovakia,

850
00:42:34,650 --> 00:42:39,450
in East Germany, and generally
throughout Eastern Europe.

851
00:42:39,450 --> 00:42:41,040
Once it became
clear the Russians

852
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,350
weren't going to
intervene militarily,

853
00:42:43,350 --> 00:42:45,330
and it became clear
to the government

854
00:42:45,330 --> 00:42:49,650
that they had no popular
support, game over.

855
00:42:49,650 --> 00:42:50,310
Game over.

856
00:42:50,310 --> 00:42:50,977
Yeah?

857
00:42:50,977 --> 00:42:52,560
AUDIENCE: I'm not
sure if I'm correct,

858
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:57,270
but my theory, my [INAUDIBLE]
theory for the Occupy Movement,

859
00:42:57,270 --> 00:42:59,730
is that it wasn't
necessarily [INAUDIBLE]

860
00:42:59,730 --> 00:43:00,930
by any particular event.

861
00:43:00,930 --> 00:43:04,428
However, there was-- since
the financial crisis and then

862
00:43:04,428 --> 00:43:06,970
all the economic problems that
were happening in the country.

863
00:43:06,970 --> 00:43:09,720
I think there were just a
lot of people unsatisfied

864
00:43:09,720 --> 00:43:11,070
with the current status.

865
00:43:11,070 --> 00:43:13,740
But I don't think that would
have been enough to trigger

866
00:43:13,740 --> 00:43:15,585
that movement in--

867
00:43:15,585 --> 00:43:16,860
for this particular case.

868
00:43:16,860 --> 00:43:20,460
I think the actual people,
the initial leaders

869
00:43:20,460 --> 00:43:22,335
who tried to convince
people, those

870
00:43:22,335 --> 00:43:23,460
are really the key players.

871
00:43:23,460 --> 00:43:25,460
I don't think that's
something that would have--

872
00:43:25,460 --> 00:43:27,840
that was bound to happen,
regardless of whether or not

873
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:29,100
someone had started.

874
00:43:29,100 --> 00:43:30,300
I don't think it would
have been something

875
00:43:30,300 --> 00:43:32,010
that if it didn't
happen then, it would

876
00:43:32,010 --> 00:43:33,450
have happened two months after.

877
00:43:33,450 --> 00:43:35,940
I just think that the people
who initially organized it

878
00:43:35,940 --> 00:43:37,410
did a really good job.

879
00:43:37,410 --> 00:43:42,580
They [INAUDIBLE] this
anarchy concept of--

880
00:43:42,580 --> 00:43:47,010
they had all those masks of
that movie V for Vendetta.

881
00:43:47,010 --> 00:43:49,800
And they [INAUDIBLE]
that image, and they

882
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,220
were just very secretive about
how they attracted people.

883
00:43:53,220 --> 00:43:54,930
They became viral
and [INAUDIBLE]

884
00:43:54,930 --> 00:43:55,700
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Became viral,

885
00:43:55,700 --> 00:43:57,158
but what's interesting
is you point

886
00:43:57,158 --> 00:43:59,340
to the particular leaders.

887
00:43:59,340 --> 00:44:02,945
I mean, they occupied Portland,
Oregon for heaven's sakes.

888
00:44:02,945 --> 00:44:03,810
What was that about?

889
00:44:03,810 --> 00:44:05,850
This was a protest
against global capitalism?

890
00:44:05,850 --> 00:44:07,330
Have you been to
Portland, Oregon?

891
00:44:07,330 --> 00:44:10,350
I mean, this is not
the financial hub

892
00:44:10,350 --> 00:44:11,910
of the Western
world with millions

893
00:44:11,910 --> 00:44:14,470
of people getting rich on the
backs of the masses, right?

894
00:44:14,470 --> 00:44:15,600
It's a pretty mellow place.

895
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:17,280
But they occupied Portland.

896
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:22,590
So they occupied
a lot of places.

897
00:44:22,590 --> 00:44:23,160
I give up.

898
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:23,790
Let me move on.

899
00:44:23,790 --> 00:44:24,600
Yeah, Julian?

900
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,097
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

901
00:44:27,097 --> 00:44:29,430
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: I was
going to try, but undoubtedly

902
00:44:29,430 --> 00:44:30,390
as profound.

903
00:44:30,390 --> 00:44:32,010
Give it a shot.

904
00:44:32,010 --> 00:44:36,285
AUDIENCE: I think, [INAUDIBLE]
it's kind of the precipitation

905
00:44:36,285 --> 00:44:43,840
of a general sentiment that the
government isn't necessarily

906
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,937
benefiting [INAUDIBLE]
I feel like [INAUDIBLE]

907
00:44:47,937 --> 00:44:50,270
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Which
is exactly what the Tea Party

908
00:44:50,270 --> 00:44:52,670
people thought, too,
which is interesting.

909
00:44:52,670 --> 00:44:53,610
I mean that's it.

910
00:44:53,610 --> 00:44:55,610
There's something wrong
in Washington, something

911
00:44:55,610 --> 00:44:58,830
wrong with a
different diagnosis.

912
00:44:58,830 --> 00:45:00,080
AUDIENCE: Different diagnosis.

913
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,770
I mean, very different ideas
in the Tea Party movement.

914
00:45:03,770 --> 00:45:11,150
But it's just a general
precipitation of some things

915
00:45:11,150 --> 00:45:16,220
wrong you don't necessarily like
it from a financial statement.

916
00:45:16,220 --> 00:45:19,550
The grand majority of
people that took place in--

917
00:45:19,550 --> 00:45:22,730
they don't necessarily
know what is wrong

918
00:45:22,730 --> 00:45:24,720
or exactly how to
fix it to begin with.

919
00:45:24,720 --> 00:45:28,910
So I think that's one of
the reasons why it died out

920
00:45:28,910 --> 00:45:32,357
is that it just became a
general shout of, I'm angry.

921
00:45:32,357 --> 00:45:33,440
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Yeah.

922
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,542
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] nothing--

923
00:45:35,542 --> 00:45:38,000
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: And you
saw a lot of movements of the,

924
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:41,390
I'm angry variety during
the Great Depression,

925
00:45:41,390 --> 00:45:42,710
from both left and right.

926
00:45:42,710 --> 00:45:47,360
So it does-- you do
get this in hard times.

927
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,046
There was a--

928
00:45:49,046 --> 00:45:53,720
I think sometime in the
'30s, there was a World War I

929
00:45:53,720 --> 00:45:55,850
veterans March on
Washington because pensions

930
00:45:55,850 --> 00:45:56,960
weren't adequate.

931
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:00,500
And you got the rise of both
extreme left and extreme

932
00:46:00,500 --> 00:46:02,810
right political
groups on the grounds

933
00:46:02,810 --> 00:46:04,590
that it's just not right.

934
00:46:04,590 --> 00:46:09,050
The Tea Party movement has
more heft because it actually

935
00:46:09,050 --> 00:46:12,260
has clearer objectives, right?

936
00:46:12,260 --> 00:46:14,480
There's a caucus in Congress.

937
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,000
There are relatively
organized groups

938
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,730
in some congressional districts.

939
00:46:19,730 --> 00:46:21,410
Tea Party backing is a big deal.

940
00:46:21,410 --> 00:46:24,020
They have a convention,
so they've made themselves

941
00:46:24,020 --> 00:46:30,100
into an interest group from a
movement, interestingly enough.

942
00:46:30,100 --> 00:46:32,395
With a little incoherence.

943
00:46:32,395 --> 00:46:34,480
There was a split
between the Boston Tea

944
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,570
Party and the Worcester
Tea Party recently,

945
00:46:37,570 --> 00:46:40,432
so they had separate rallies.

946
00:46:40,432 --> 00:46:41,890
The Worcester Tea
Party said, we're

947
00:46:41,890 --> 00:46:45,130
all about low taxes and limited
government and stuff like that.

948
00:46:45,130 --> 00:46:46,840
And the Boston Tea
Party said, yeah,

949
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,558
and we hate gay marriage, too.

950
00:46:48,558 --> 00:46:50,350
And the Worcester people
said, no, maybe we

951
00:46:50,350 --> 00:46:51,880
ought to just stay focused.

952
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:52,930
So they split.

953
00:46:52,930 --> 00:46:54,790
Anyway.

954
00:46:54,790 --> 00:46:56,620
OK.

955
00:46:56,620 --> 00:47:00,520
To get a little
closer to this course

956
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:05,350
and a little less abstract,
there's an interesting--

957
00:47:05,350 --> 00:47:08,080
the other assigned
paper is [INAUDIBLE]

958
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:09,550
which is about nuclear power.

959
00:47:14,140 --> 00:47:19,510
And they trace the partial
evolution of the politics here.

960
00:47:19,510 --> 00:47:21,160
What did the politics
of nuclear power

961
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,530
look like in the '50s and '60s?

962
00:47:23,530 --> 00:47:25,420
Movements, interest
groups, what?

963
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:30,303
That was a hand?

964
00:47:30,303 --> 00:47:31,220
No, it was not waving.

965
00:47:31,220 --> 00:47:32,340
OK.

966
00:47:32,340 --> 00:47:32,917
Yeah.

967
00:47:32,917 --> 00:47:33,750
Brandon, you got it.

968
00:47:33,750 --> 00:47:34,632
OK.

969
00:47:34,632 --> 00:47:36,840
AUDIENCE: I think it was
kind of like, let's do this.

970
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,378
This is gonna be-- it's gonna
cost pennies to-- it's going

971
00:47:39,378 --> 00:47:40,170
to cost you penny--

972
00:47:40,170 --> 00:47:42,462
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Too
cheap to meter was the phrase.

973
00:47:42,462 --> 00:47:43,358
Too cheap to meter.

974
00:47:43,358 --> 00:47:44,816
AUDIENCE: It was
very enthusiastic.

975
00:47:44,816 --> 00:47:46,110
The navy was going nuclear.

976
00:47:46,110 --> 00:47:47,902
There was a lot of
proliferation technology

977
00:47:47,902 --> 00:47:51,090
out there so these reactors
were ready to build.

978
00:47:51,090 --> 00:47:53,420
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
And the politics

979
00:47:53,420 --> 00:47:56,810
was industry interest
groups, right?

980
00:47:56,810 --> 00:48:01,650
There were-- the paper
labeled a bunch of them.

981
00:48:01,650 --> 00:48:03,320
The big thing, their
big win was there's

982
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:07,730
a limit still in force
on the liability of any--

983
00:48:07,730 --> 00:48:09,530
related to any nuclear facility.

984
00:48:09,530 --> 00:48:11,600
The Atomic Energy
Commission was regulatory,

985
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:16,790
but it also was promoting Atomic
Energy as well as regulating.

986
00:48:16,790 --> 00:48:20,330
So it was like the early
years of airline travel

987
00:48:20,330 --> 00:48:25,700
where what politics
there was was positive,

988
00:48:25,700 --> 00:48:31,040
industry groups dominated,
inside the beltway stuff.

989
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:34,520
Not much in the media, except
for cheap, swell, good, clean,

990
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,950
et cetera.

991
00:48:36,950 --> 00:48:38,150
What happened in the '70s?

992
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:42,420
Yeah?

993
00:48:42,420 --> 00:48:44,980
AUDIENCE: It was a
combination of a movie called

994
00:48:44,980 --> 00:48:47,700
The China Syndrome that came
out and then Three Mile Island--

995
00:48:47,700 --> 00:48:48,310
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
China Syndrome

996
00:48:48,310 --> 00:48:49,590
might have been a little
later, but go ahead.

997
00:48:49,590 --> 00:48:50,250
Not much later.

998
00:48:50,250 --> 00:48:50,942
AUDIENCE: They were similar.

999
00:48:50,942 --> 00:48:51,290
[INAUDIBLE]

1000
00:48:51,290 --> 00:48:52,820
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: It followed
Three Mile Island a little bit.

1001
00:48:52,820 --> 00:48:55,450
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
Three Mile Island happened,

1002
00:48:55,450 --> 00:48:58,270
which seemed to mimic the
movie with like, oh geez,

1003
00:48:58,270 --> 00:48:59,200
this is reality.

1004
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:00,510
It's actually dangerous.

1005
00:49:00,510 --> 00:49:01,927
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
And you began

1006
00:49:01,927 --> 00:49:03,960
to get a different kind
of politics, right?

1007
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:05,280
Politically, what did you get?

1008
00:49:10,516 --> 00:49:12,420
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

1009
00:49:12,420 --> 00:49:14,520
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
I showed you.

1010
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,260
What was on that slide?

1011
00:49:16,260 --> 00:49:17,800
You've got an
anti-nuclear movement.

1012
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:19,140
You've got people marching.

1013
00:49:19,140 --> 00:49:20,850
You've got protests.

1014
00:49:20,850 --> 00:49:23,910
All of a sudden, you had these
industry groups in Washington

1015
00:49:23,910 --> 00:49:28,200
with guys in suits and other
capitals for that matter.

1016
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,030
It wasn't just an
American phenomenon.

1017
00:49:30,030 --> 00:49:33,780
And then you begin to
have those German marchers

1018
00:49:33,780 --> 00:49:38,220
and the Japanese marchers
and Vermont is recent,

1019
00:49:38,220 --> 00:49:39,660
but you had American marchers.

1020
00:49:39,660 --> 00:49:43,500
You began to get an anti-nuclear
movement with protests.

1021
00:49:43,500 --> 00:49:48,570
And after Three Mile Island,
the industry stopped.

1022
00:49:48,570 --> 00:49:50,640
Now this is the neat
part, which I actually

1023
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,850
wasn't aware of until
I saw the article.

1024
00:49:53,850 --> 00:49:57,760
What did the industry try
to do to react to this?

1025
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,658
Do you have the guys
in suits in Washington?

1026
00:49:59,658 --> 00:50:00,700
Are they a good reaction?

1027
00:50:00,700 --> 00:50:01,200
Yeah?

1028
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,850
AUDIENCE: They tried to form
their own pro-nuclear movement.

1029
00:50:03,850 --> 00:50:06,880
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: They try
to do a pro-nuclear movement.

1030
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:07,945
Did it work?

1031
00:50:07,945 --> 00:50:09,340
AUDIENCE: Not really.

1032
00:50:09,340 --> 00:50:11,230
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: How come?

1033
00:50:11,230 --> 00:50:14,440
AUDIENCE: Well, the article
mentions like the anti-nuclear

1034
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:19,204
movement came from the people,
and they all felt like he--

1035
00:50:19,204 --> 00:50:22,550
or that an industry-backed
movement [INAUDIBLE]

1036
00:50:22,550 --> 00:50:26,300
so they were set
apart from the masses.

1037
00:50:26,300 --> 00:50:28,850
And then [INAUDIBLE]

1038
00:50:28,850 --> 00:50:30,920
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
So they tried to do it,

1039
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:34,870
but they really had trouble
making it authentic.

1040
00:50:34,870 --> 00:50:39,200
The anti-nuclear movement was
mom and pop and your uncle

1041
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:41,600
and people really upset,
and the pro-nuclear movement

1042
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:46,790
was industry people
with their ties off.

1043
00:50:46,790 --> 00:50:49,580
The phrase they use
in the businesses

1044
00:50:49,580 --> 00:50:54,470
to distinguish between
grassroots and AstroTurf.

1045
00:50:54,470 --> 00:50:56,900
Grassroots movements
are really genuine

1046
00:50:56,900 --> 00:50:58,910
and reflect popular sentiment.

1047
00:50:58,910 --> 00:51:02,390
AstroTurf is created, right?

1048
00:51:02,390 --> 00:51:05,240
You can see it when
you get emails--

1049
00:51:05,240 --> 00:51:08,630
when a congressional office gets
emails on an issue and they're

1050
00:51:08,630 --> 00:51:11,030
all identical.

1051
00:51:11,030 --> 00:51:12,620
You say, oh.

1052
00:51:12,620 --> 00:51:14,570
That's AstroTurf.

1053
00:51:14,570 --> 00:51:18,410
Somebody is really
pushing people to send--

1054
00:51:18,410 --> 00:51:23,120
somebody's saying to all their
employees, send this email.

1055
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,640
That's not people
being passionate.

1056
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:29,510
And it just didn't
work, didn't work.

1057
00:51:29,510 --> 00:51:31,640
It was an attempt
to create a movement

1058
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:33,740
to affect energy policy.

1059
00:51:33,740 --> 00:51:34,400
Didn't work.

1060
00:51:36,980 --> 00:51:40,700
There's not a lot of social
movements in energy directly.

1061
00:51:40,700 --> 00:51:44,300
You see them more on
the environmental side.

1062
00:51:44,300 --> 00:51:47,510
And the piece by [? Rooked-- ?]
but environmental movements

1063
00:51:47,510 --> 00:51:49,370
affect energy, so it's
worth talking about.

1064
00:51:52,210 --> 00:51:56,950
That's a depressing article,
if you read the first part

1065
00:51:56,950 --> 00:51:58,570
in a bad mood.

1066
00:51:58,570 --> 00:52:00,490
Because he says the
environment's gotten worse

1067
00:52:00,490 --> 00:52:02,770
and species are getting
extinct, and we're

1068
00:52:02,770 --> 00:52:04,570
depleting natural resources.

1069
00:52:04,570 --> 00:52:07,420
I would just argue that he's
measuring against the past,

1070
00:52:07,420 --> 00:52:08,920
not against what
would have happened

1071
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:12,520
but for the environmental
movement since the air

1072
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,370
and the water in US and
Europe and many other places

1073
00:52:15,370 --> 00:52:17,950
has improved notably.

1074
00:52:17,950 --> 00:52:22,240
Nobody believes that, but
those are the numbers.

1075
00:52:22,240 --> 00:52:26,650
He argues-- so he's
trying to be quantitative.

1076
00:52:26,650 --> 00:52:31,510
He says that an
environmental movement can

1077
00:52:31,510 --> 00:52:34,600
work through lobbying, can
work through public opinion,

1078
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:38,290
can work through
individual attitudes,

1079
00:52:38,290 --> 00:52:42,830
or through a Green Party,
as exist in some countries.

1080
00:52:42,830 --> 00:52:46,980
And the reason he does
this rather than thinking

1081
00:52:46,980 --> 00:52:49,950
about the ways we just finished
talking about, the more general

1082
00:52:49,950 --> 00:52:53,145
ways, is he's got measures
of all these things.

1083
00:52:53,145 --> 00:52:57,510
He's got measures of how
big the green movement is.

1084
00:52:57,510 --> 00:52:59,520
He's got measures
of public opinion.

1085
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:03,243
He's got measures of
attitudes of various kinds,

1086
00:53:03,243 --> 00:53:05,160
and he certainly knows
whether there's a Green

1087
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:06,870
Party that gets any votes.

1088
00:53:06,870 --> 00:53:09,630
So he can measure
these channels,

1089
00:53:09,630 --> 00:53:14,470
and he gives you
this nice picture.

1090
00:53:14,470 --> 00:53:19,620
So environmental movements
react to environmental problems.

1091
00:53:19,620 --> 00:53:21,780
I think interpreted
largely via sciences

1092
00:53:21,780 --> 00:53:24,340
is a little too
optimistic, but perceive

1093
00:53:24,340 --> 00:53:26,310
problems they can lobby.

1094
00:53:26,310 --> 00:53:28,620
They can be an interest group.

1095
00:53:28,620 --> 00:53:32,700
The Environmental Defense Fund,
the Natural Resources Defense

1096
00:53:32,700 --> 00:53:35,910
Council, the Friends of
the Earth, the Sierra Club.

1097
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:40,260
There are more.

1098
00:53:40,260 --> 00:53:43,800
I'm trying to think of a few,
but they lobby as well as do

1099
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:45,970
other things.

1100
00:53:45,970 --> 00:53:48,240
And so here are his channels.

1101
00:53:48,240 --> 00:53:56,430
So he has this very
interesting table.

1102
00:53:56,430 --> 00:53:59,340
Based on a set of
measures, he looks

1103
00:53:59,340 --> 00:54:03,870
at the strength of
environmental pressure groups.

1104
00:54:03,870 --> 00:54:06,870
He looks, based on
opinion polls, attitudes

1105
00:54:06,870 --> 00:54:08,560
toward the environment.

1106
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:14,100
Is there a Green Party, and
how strong is the policy

1107
00:54:14,100 --> 00:54:17,340
and what's happened
to the environment?

1108
00:54:17,340 --> 00:54:22,890
It's interesting, the
US scores high in terms

1109
00:54:22,890 --> 00:54:26,510
of the environmental
pressure group.

1110
00:54:26,510 --> 00:54:29,660
We're kind of in the middle
in terms of attitudes.

1111
00:54:29,660 --> 00:54:31,640
We don't have a Green Party.

1112
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:33,470
A lot of places don't
have green parties,

1113
00:54:33,470 --> 00:54:36,680
and we're kind of in the
middle on policy efforts, which

1114
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:40,110
I think is, compared
to these countries,

1115
00:54:40,110 --> 00:54:46,790
I think is not far
off the mark roughly.

1116
00:54:46,790 --> 00:54:49,240
And we're in the middle in
terms of Environmental Quality.

1117
00:54:49,240 --> 00:54:50,830
I forget how he measures that.

1118
00:54:50,830 --> 00:54:54,650
That's a tough one because he's
got so many different things.

1119
00:54:54,650 --> 00:55:00,220
But this is the summary, his
summary of how these work.

1120
00:55:00,220 --> 00:55:02,590
And I must say--

1121
00:55:02,590 --> 00:55:03,760
so what he did was--

1122
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:10,010
to be clear, the US
gets a three here.

1123
00:55:10,010 --> 00:55:11,750
It gets a two here.

1124
00:55:11,750 --> 00:55:13,550
It gets a one here.

1125
00:55:13,550 --> 00:55:15,350
It gets a one there.

1126
00:55:15,350 --> 00:55:18,330
And a one-- sorry, a two
there and a two there.

1127
00:55:18,330 --> 00:55:19,220
This is three.

1128
00:55:19,220 --> 00:55:20,240
This is two.

1129
00:55:20,240 --> 00:55:21,380
This is one.

1130
00:55:21,380 --> 00:55:24,140
And then he looks
at correlations,

1131
00:55:24,140 --> 00:55:27,460
which is not obviously
the right way to do it.

1132
00:55:27,460 --> 00:55:30,930
It's not, I would say,
the wrong way to do it.

1133
00:55:30,930 --> 00:55:32,300
But here they are.

1134
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:36,540
OK.

1135
00:55:36,540 --> 00:55:41,160
So reading across, an
environmental pressure group

1136
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:44,790
is most strongly associated
with the strength of policy

1137
00:55:44,790 --> 00:55:46,890
across countries.

1138
00:55:46,890 --> 00:55:50,610
Has very little to do with
whether there's a Green Party

1139
00:55:50,610 --> 00:55:53,910
or not, the stars or
statistical significance.

1140
00:55:53,910 --> 00:55:57,930
Very little to do with whether
there's a Green Party or not.

1141
00:55:57,930 --> 00:56:00,210
Why don't we have a Green
Party in the United States?

1142
00:56:05,470 --> 00:56:06,469
Brendan?

1143
00:56:06,469 --> 00:56:07,594
AUDIENCE: I thought we did.

1144
00:56:07,594 --> 00:56:09,490
Wasn't that Ralph
Nader [INAUDIBLE]??

1145
00:56:09,490 --> 00:56:10,670
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Oh.

1146
00:56:10,670 --> 00:56:12,500
Is that what he called it?

1147
00:56:12,500 --> 00:56:13,660
OK.

1148
00:56:13,660 --> 00:56:14,903
We might have once.

1149
00:56:14,903 --> 00:56:15,820
We don't have one now.

1150
00:56:15,820 --> 00:56:17,110
They do in Germany.

1151
00:56:17,110 --> 00:56:20,330
Various other countries do.

1152
00:56:20,330 --> 00:56:23,093
Well, Julian?

1153
00:56:23,093 --> 00:56:25,518
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
it's just insignificant.

1154
00:56:25,518 --> 00:56:26,810
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: It's what?

1155
00:56:26,810 --> 00:56:27,710
AUDIENCE: It's
just insignificant.

1156
00:56:27,710 --> 00:56:28,580
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Insignificant.

1157
00:56:28,580 --> 00:56:28,850
Yeah.

1158
00:56:28,850 --> 00:56:29,900
Well, maybe that's it.

1159
00:56:29,900 --> 00:56:31,845
Why don't we have one
that's significant?

1160
00:56:31,845 --> 00:56:33,553
AUDIENCE: Well, we've
always been heavily

1161
00:56:33,553 --> 00:56:36,496
polarized [INAUDIBLE]
Democrats or Republicans.

1162
00:56:36,496 --> 00:56:38,912
It's really hard for any
party to break into that

1163
00:56:38,912 --> 00:56:40,620
and make a three party
system, especially

1164
00:56:40,620 --> 00:56:45,022
a Green, which is like a
subset of the Democratic party.

1165
00:56:45,022 --> 00:56:46,730
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
It's very important.

1166
00:56:46,730 --> 00:56:49,940
Our electoral rules are
pretty important as they

1167
00:56:49,940 --> 00:56:51,770
are in some countries.

1168
00:56:51,770 --> 00:56:58,250
In some countries, you vote for
the party, not the candidate.

1169
00:56:58,250 --> 00:57:01,700
And the party has
representation in parliament,

1170
00:57:01,700 --> 00:57:04,280
depending on the percentage
of the votes it gets.

1171
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:08,630
In that case, a Green Party
could get 5%, 6% of the votes

1172
00:57:08,630 --> 00:57:11,510
and have somebody in Washington.

1173
00:57:11,510 --> 00:57:14,540
Here, you've got to win a
majority to get into the house,

1174
00:57:14,540 --> 00:57:16,700
to get into the Senate.

1175
00:57:16,700 --> 00:57:18,680
It's very tough
for third parties

1176
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:20,840
of any kind in our system.

1177
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:22,490
Not in all systems.

1178
00:57:22,490 --> 00:57:25,400
I wouldn't say we're heavily--
we're heavily polarized now.

1179
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:28,235
The Republican and Democratic
parties used to overlap more.

1180
00:57:28,235 --> 00:57:31,040
You used to actually have
conservative Democrats who

1181
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,200
were more conservative
than liberal Republicans,

1182
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:35,730
believe it or not.

1183
00:57:35,730 --> 00:57:42,020
So one of the reasons for
this is electoral laws.

1184
00:57:42,020 --> 00:57:50,470
But it's-- this is the
strongest correlation he's got.

1185
00:57:50,470 --> 00:57:52,090
And that's between
the importance

1186
00:57:52,090 --> 00:57:55,660
of environmental pressure groups
and the strength of policy

1187
00:57:55,660 --> 00:57:58,510
efforts to preserve
the environment, which

1188
00:57:58,510 --> 00:58:00,790
is sort of interesting.

1189
00:58:00,790 --> 00:58:04,660
He says the environmental
movement does matter.

1190
00:58:04,660 --> 00:58:08,140
He called-- the environmental
movement pressure.

1191
00:58:08,140 --> 00:58:12,640
If you think about it in
the US, we don't actually

1192
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:18,960
have a lot of marches and
rallies for the environment.

1193
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:22,140
We have interest
groups in Washington.

1194
00:58:22,140 --> 00:58:24,560
The Environmental Defense Fund,
the Sierra Club, the this,

1195
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:25,290
the that.

1196
00:58:25,290 --> 00:58:28,080
So there are not a lot of
non-conventional actions being

1197
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:29,670
done to save the environment.

1198
00:58:29,670 --> 00:58:32,280
There was a time in
the Pacific Northwest

1199
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,740
when people would drive
iron spikes into trees

1200
00:58:34,740 --> 00:58:36,300
to prevent logging.

1201
00:58:36,300 --> 00:58:38,910
You don't hear much
of that anymore.

1202
00:58:38,910 --> 00:58:42,720
You don't hear people chaining
themselves to a nuclear power

1203
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,650
plant much anymore.

1204
00:58:44,650 --> 00:58:47,220
So at this point,
we're lobbying.

1205
00:58:47,220 --> 00:58:48,845
Other places, stronger.

1206
00:58:48,845 --> 00:58:50,220
The other interesting
correlation

1207
00:58:50,220 --> 00:58:52,590
is how much stronger
the correlation

1208
00:58:52,590 --> 00:58:55,320
between environmental
movement pressure and policy

1209
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:57,510
is than between
movement pressure

1210
00:58:57,510 --> 00:59:03,480
and his measure, at least, of
changes in the environment.

1211
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:07,370
And part of that has to
do with where you are

1212
00:59:07,370 --> 00:59:09,530
and what the natural
conditions are, right?

1213
00:59:09,530 --> 00:59:13,040
Policy efforts in Los
Angeles are extraordinary.

1214
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:16,630
Los Angeles has dirty air.

1215
00:59:16,630 --> 00:59:20,830
I don't think there's a European
country that takes as much pain

1216
00:59:20,830 --> 00:59:24,310
to preserve air quality as
there is done in the Los Angeles

1217
00:59:24,310 --> 00:59:25,040
basin.

1218
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:26,470
It's just really hard.

1219
00:59:26,470 --> 00:59:28,450
It just doesn't ventilate.

1220
00:59:28,450 --> 00:59:32,380
So the notion that--
and if you're highly--

1221
00:59:32,380 --> 00:59:34,420
if it's a very
dense country, it's

1222
00:59:34,420 --> 00:59:38,770
kind of hard to preserve species
against development and so

1223
00:59:38,770 --> 00:59:40,190
on and so forth.

1224
00:59:40,190 --> 00:59:41,725
So, I don't know.

1225
00:59:41,725 --> 00:59:44,830
You believe the-- are you
persuaded by the article?

1226
00:59:44,830 --> 00:59:46,590
Comments on it?

1227
00:59:46,590 --> 00:59:50,410
Does that actually seem
like a plausible description

1228
00:59:50,410 --> 00:59:53,215
of interest group, of
environmental politics?

1229
00:59:56,390 --> 01:00:01,400
And I would notice also
that the difference--

1230
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:05,870
the link between-- and, again,
causation is an inference.

1231
01:00:05,870 --> 01:00:08,480
Its correlation
is all we measure.

1232
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:12,080
The link between individual--

1233
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:14,030
between environmental
pressure and attitudes

1234
01:00:14,030 --> 01:00:17,780
isn't that great, which
makes sense in the US, right?

1235
01:00:17,780 --> 01:00:22,170
Because the Sierra Club isn't
trying to persuade you and me.

1236
01:00:22,170 --> 01:00:25,400
It's trying to persuade
Congress and the EPA.

1237
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:30,920
So if it's successful
there, it wins.

1238
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:34,190
Individual attitudes and
policy, not that strong either.

1239
01:00:34,190 --> 01:00:36,690
Not that strong a correlation.

1240
01:00:36,690 --> 01:00:42,650
So this is sort of a
picture of lobbying

1241
01:00:42,650 --> 01:00:45,500
where the environmental movement
acts directly on policy.

1242
01:00:45,500 --> 01:00:49,190
Doesn't act indirectly,
seems to me,

1243
01:00:49,190 --> 01:00:53,240
through parades, mass marches,
demonstrations, and any

1244
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:56,420
of those other mechanisms.

1245
01:00:56,420 --> 01:00:57,890
I think that's a
fair description

1246
01:00:57,890 --> 01:00:59,270
of the movement now in the US.

1247
01:00:59,270 --> 01:01:00,320
Yeah?

1248
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:02,480
AUDIENCE: Seems to me,
seems pretty reasonable

1249
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:04,720
even though it's correlation
not causation, right?

1250
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,610
Because although one
can make the argument

1251
01:01:07,610 --> 01:01:11,150
that interest groups [INAUDIBLE]
people would come out

1252
01:01:11,150 --> 01:01:13,490
after certain policy is made.

1253
01:01:13,490 --> 01:01:16,850
It seems to me that
the more logical flow

1254
01:01:16,850 --> 01:01:19,520
would be for information--

1255
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:22,130
for those groups to be
formed initially and then

1256
01:01:22,130 --> 01:01:24,470
the policy is made.

1257
01:01:24,470 --> 01:01:26,900
So even though he
proved only correlation,

1258
01:01:26,900 --> 01:01:29,070
I think that that
flow makes more sense.

1259
01:01:29,070 --> 01:01:30,320
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Oh, yeah.

1260
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:30,530
No.

1261
01:01:30,530 --> 01:01:31,530
It's not-- is not from--

1262
01:01:34,700 --> 01:01:37,430
in fact, it can
go the other way.

1263
01:01:37,430 --> 01:01:41,210
Because when Reagan
basically declared war

1264
01:01:41,210 --> 01:01:44,900
on environmental policy, the
memberships of those groups

1265
01:01:44,900 --> 01:01:48,590
soared because
they saw a threat.

1266
01:01:48,590 --> 01:01:52,668
And the groups sent out
mass mailings, saying, look

1267
01:01:52,668 --> 01:01:54,710
what this guy is trying
to do to the environment,

1268
01:01:54,710 --> 01:01:56,060
and the money flowed in.

1269
01:01:58,890 --> 01:02:02,780
So the question of, are
they exerting pressure?

1270
01:02:02,780 --> 01:02:05,510
Yes, but in that case, they
were exerting more pressure

1271
01:02:05,510 --> 01:02:08,720
in a much more hostile
environment politically.

1272
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,300
So yeah.

1273
01:02:11,300 --> 01:02:17,360
I think that the direction
is generally right.

1274
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:20,470
Any other comments?

1275
01:02:20,470 --> 01:02:21,688
Yeah, Charlotte?

1276
01:02:21,688 --> 01:02:22,480
AUDIENCE: I guess--

1277
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:24,250
I know he had a system
for doing all this,

1278
01:02:24,250 --> 01:02:26,290
but it seems like you could
come up with a different system

1279
01:02:26,290 --> 01:02:27,430
and get different results.

1280
01:02:27,430 --> 01:02:28,602
And--

1281
01:02:28,602 --> 01:02:31,060
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: You're
just not a natural sociologist.

1282
01:02:31,060 --> 01:02:31,602
You're just--

1283
01:02:31,602 --> 01:02:33,350
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
apply to this.

1284
01:02:33,350 --> 01:02:35,890
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE:
Yeah, well--

1285
01:02:35,890 --> 01:02:42,250
but this raises a general
problem in social science.

1286
01:02:42,250 --> 01:02:46,090
In economics, we get
lucky because you

1287
01:02:46,090 --> 01:02:49,720
have dollars and quantities
and tons and stuff.

1288
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:51,550
This is sociology.

1289
01:02:51,550 --> 01:02:52,390
What have you got?

1290
01:02:52,390 --> 01:02:54,010
You've got attitudes.

1291
01:02:54,010 --> 01:02:56,012
You've got some
ill-defined measures

1292
01:02:56,012 --> 01:02:57,220
of this, that, and the other.

1293
01:02:57,220 --> 01:03:02,440
You want to say, are
environmental groups effective?

1294
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:06,700
It seems to me you're stuck
doing something like this.

1295
01:03:06,700 --> 01:03:08,710
You could do it well or poorly.

1296
01:03:08,710 --> 01:03:11,292
I think this is pretty good.

1297
01:03:11,292 --> 01:03:13,250
I'm still not-- I hadn't
thought about it much,

1298
01:03:13,250 --> 01:03:14,833
but it just didn't
strike me that just

1299
01:03:14,833 --> 01:03:18,070
running ordinary correlations
is quite the right way to do it.

1300
01:03:18,070 --> 01:03:20,818
But there's no obviously
better way that comes to mind.

1301
01:03:20,818 --> 01:03:21,360
I don't know.

1302
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:22,110
What would you do?

1303
01:03:22,110 --> 01:03:25,030
AUDIENCE: I think I'd be more
persuaded by case studies where

1304
01:03:25,030 --> 01:03:27,850
it did work in the case
where there was a Green Party

1305
01:03:27,850 --> 01:03:29,267
or wasn't a Green
Party, or didn't

1306
01:03:29,267 --> 01:03:32,350
work in that sort of case.

1307
01:03:32,350 --> 01:03:35,832
I think I'd be able to
relate to that more.

1308
01:03:35,832 --> 01:03:38,317
And I know that's not
as general as what

1309
01:03:38,317 --> 01:03:39,317
he's trying to do here--

1310
01:03:39,317 --> 01:03:39,760
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: Yep.

1311
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:42,400
AUDIENCE: --but I think that
maybe he makes it too general.

1312
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:44,108
Like, what's the
difference between a 0.6

1313
01:03:44,108 --> 01:03:45,910
and a 0.7 on his little scale?

1314
01:03:45,910 --> 01:03:47,436
That doesn't mean
anything to me.

1315
01:03:47,436 --> 01:03:49,930
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE: No,
I'm sort of with you.

1316
01:03:52,690 --> 01:03:57,250
I'd prefer to understand one
or two cases well than 18 cases

1317
01:03:57,250 --> 01:03:59,530
badly.

1318
01:03:59,530 --> 01:04:06,190
The issue he's-- well, it's
a general problem, right?

1319
01:04:06,190 --> 01:04:08,410
You do a case study.

1320
01:04:08,410 --> 01:04:12,010
You have a study where
n equals 1, right?

1321
01:04:12,010 --> 01:04:14,770
You can't test the
hypothesis with n equals 1.

1322
01:04:14,770 --> 01:04:18,280
So if you're interested in
testing a hypothesis, say,

1323
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:20,470
environmental movements
operate mainly

1324
01:04:20,470 --> 01:04:25,690
through individual attitudes,
you can't do n equals 1.

1325
01:04:25,690 --> 01:04:29,290
You could probably do before
and after in a case study.

1326
01:04:29,290 --> 01:04:31,000
You could try it.

1327
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:34,090
But, of course, you can't
hold everything else constant.

1328
01:04:34,090 --> 01:04:36,910
No, I'm sympathetic.

1329
01:04:36,910 --> 01:04:42,220
I'm not excited about
uni-dimensional measures

1330
01:04:42,220 --> 01:04:44,380
of policy efforts, right?

1331
01:04:44,380 --> 01:04:46,308
I mean, US policy is
stronger than some

1332
01:04:46,308 --> 01:04:48,100
of those other countries
on some dimensions

1333
01:04:48,100 --> 01:04:49,090
and weaker on others.

1334
01:04:52,030 --> 01:04:54,910
European tax systems
favor use of diesels.

1335
01:04:54,910 --> 01:04:56,470
Diesels produce
small particulates.

1336
01:04:56,470 --> 01:04:59,970
Small particulates have
terrible health effects.

1337
01:04:59,970 --> 01:05:01,720
So are they more
environmentally conscious

1338
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:04,180
than we are because
they recycle or more,

1339
01:05:04,180 --> 01:05:05,860
or are we more
environmentally conscious

1340
01:05:05,860 --> 01:05:08,200
because we avoid diesels?

1341
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:09,380
Very hard to do.

1342
01:05:09,380 --> 01:05:09,880
Yeah.

1343
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:12,440
No, I take the point.

1344
01:05:12,440 --> 01:05:13,090
Anybody else?

1345
01:05:16,490 --> 01:05:19,200
OK.

1346
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:23,940
We will, Wednesday, talk
about US environmental policy,

1347
01:05:23,940 --> 01:05:26,290
walking through the case
study and looking beyond it.

1348
01:05:26,290 --> 01:05:28,810
So please read that.

1349
01:05:28,810 --> 01:05:31,260
And for those of
you who came late,

1350
01:05:31,260 --> 01:05:33,210
Monday we will
see if we can find

1351
01:05:33,210 --> 01:05:34,830
a guest speaker for
an hour, and we'll

1352
01:05:34,830 --> 01:05:38,100
do an hour's soft shoe on--
a half an hour soft shoe

1353
01:05:38,100 --> 01:05:43,400
on green growth, reflecting
the will of a narrow majority.