WEBVTT

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In this lecture, we will
discuss how visualization

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can offer insights in
the area of policing

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in urban environments.

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The explosion of
computerized data

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affects all parts of
society, including policing.

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In the past, human
judgment and experience

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was the only tool in identifying
patterns in criminal behavior.

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Police forces around the
United States and the world

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are augmenting human
judgment with analytics.

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Los Angeles police
worked for months

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to catch Manson
and his followers.

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These days the LAPD is on an
offensive to prevent crime.

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Its latest weapon is
a computer program

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that can actually predict
where crimes will happen.

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And justice
correspondent Bob Orr

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has a first look at the results.

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In the Foothill Division
north of downtown Los Angeles,

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police are patrolling
the largely

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working-class neighborhoods
with specially marked maps.

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The small red squares
are hot spots,

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where computers project
property crimes are most likely.

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It's called predictive policing.

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A program which Captain
Sean Malinowski says

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puts officers on the
scene before crimes occur.

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65% of our crimes are
burglary, grand theft auto,

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and burglary for motor vehicle.

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And that's what these
boxes represent.

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That's a pretty small
box, 500 feet by 500 feet.

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Yes, it is a small area.

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These crime
prediction boxes come

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from the same kind of
mathematical calculation used

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to predict earthquakes
and aftershocks.

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By analyzing the times, dates,
and places of recent crimes

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computers project hot spots for
burglaries, break-ins, and car

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thefts.

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LA's Police Chief
Charlie Beck says

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increasing police patrols
inside those boxes

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denies criminals opportunity.

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The real measure of this is
not how many people you catch,

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it's how much crime you prevent.

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I love catching people.

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It's what I live for.

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But, what I'd rather do is live
in a place and work in a place

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where crime didn't happen.

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Chief Beck, a 35-year veteran
and the father of two LAPD

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officers, has faced
some skepticism

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in selling the
predictive concept.

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You're a street cop.

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I am.

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So somebody comes to you with
a computer program that says,

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here we're going to
predict the future,

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we're going to tell you where
crime is going to occur.

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Aren't some of the guys
on the street just going

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to roll their eyes
and say, oh come on?

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Well, of course.

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I mean, that's the
nature of human beings.

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I mean everybody thinks that
they do their profession as

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well as it can be done already,
so they don't need any help.

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If this old street
cop can change the way

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that he thinks about
this stuff, then I

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know that my kids
can do the same.

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The LAPD began testing the
predictive policing model here

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in the Foothill
Division in November,

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and the early results
are encouraging.

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Burglaries are down 33%, and
violent crime is also down 21%.

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That success will allow
Beck to expand the program

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to other parts of the city and
leverage limited resources.

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I'm not going to get more money.

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I'm not going to get more cops.

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But I have to be better
at using what I have,

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and that's what predictive
policing is about.

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It's also about driving
the crime rate lower.

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Crime here has dropped
nine straight years.

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With these small red
boxes, LA is aiming for 10.

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Bob Orr, CBS News, Los Angeles.

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The Los Angeles Police
Chief Charlie Beck

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writes, "I'm not going
to get more money.

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I'm not going to get more cops.

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I have to be better
at using what I have,

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and that's what predictive
policing is about.

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If this old street
cop can change the way

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that he thinks about
this stuff, then I

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know that my officers
can do the same."

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Let me comment on the
role of analytics.

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The analytical tools you
have learned in this class

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can be used to make these
predictive policing models

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possible.

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However, communicating the
results of these models

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is critical.

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A linear regression
output table will not

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be of use to a police
person on patrol.

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Visualization bridges the
gap between the analytics

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and the end user.