WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.979 align:middle line:90% [SQUEAKING] 00:00:01.979 --> 00:00:03.458 align:middle line:90% [RUSTLING] 00:00:03.458 --> 00:00:05.430 align:middle line:90% [CLICKING] 00:00:05.430 --> 00:00:11.360 align:middle line:90% 00:00:11.360 --> 00:00:14.680 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Let's get started. 00:00:14.680 --> 00:00:21.640 align:middle line:84% So in the last class, we talked about accidents 00:00:21.640 --> 00:00:29.720 align:middle line:84% and, in particular, calculated the number of fatalities. 00:00:29.720 --> 00:00:31.920 align:middle line:84% And we found out that it wasn't all that 00:00:31.920 --> 00:00:35.600 align:middle line:84% bad on a per-kilowatt-hour basis. 00:00:35.600 --> 00:00:42.040 align:middle line:84% We would like to eventually turn that number into an externality 00:00:42.040 --> 00:00:44.760 align:middle line:84% for nuclear power and compare that 00:00:44.760 --> 00:00:47.160 align:middle line:84% to the externalities from coal and everything 00:00:47.160 --> 00:00:50.720 align:middle line:84% else to see how it affects the final rankings. 00:00:50.720 --> 00:00:53.520 align:middle line:84% But before we do that, there are a couple of other externalities 00:00:53.520 --> 00:00:56.660 align:middle line:84% that are really specific to nuclear power 00:00:56.660 --> 00:00:58.520 align:middle line:90% and we need to go through them. 00:00:58.520 --> 00:01:01.280 align:middle line:84% So one of them is nuclear waste and the other one 00:01:01.280 --> 00:01:03.320 align:middle line:90% is nuclear proliferation. 00:01:03.320 --> 00:01:06.680 align:middle line:90% So we're going to do those now. 00:01:06.680 --> 00:01:07.180 align:middle line:90% All right. 00:01:07.180 --> 00:01:09.500 align:middle line:90% So let's just talk about waste. 00:01:09.500 --> 00:01:11.740 align:middle line:84% People think waste is a big issue. 00:01:11.740 --> 00:01:13.560 align:middle line:84% Actually, if you do surveys, people 00:01:13.560 --> 00:01:15.760 align:middle line:90% are always worried about waste. 00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:17.800 align:middle line:90% How big of an issue is it? 00:01:17.800 --> 00:01:20.520 align:middle line:84% Another interesting thing to note about this 00:01:20.520 --> 00:01:22.140 align:middle line:90% is that this concrete pad-- 00:01:22.140 --> 00:01:24.260 align:middle line:84% I'm not sure how far to the right it extends-- 00:01:24.260 --> 00:01:29.440 align:middle line:84% but this pad contains all the fuel for a single nuclear 00:01:29.440 --> 00:01:32.720 align:middle line:84% reactor over its entire 40-year lifetime. 00:01:32.720 --> 00:01:38.480 align:middle line:84% It's really not that much fuel, from a volume perspective. 00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:42.560 align:middle line:84% So these casks are pretty robust. 00:01:42.560 --> 00:01:44.820 align:middle line:90% You can drive a train into them. 00:01:44.820 --> 00:01:46.780 align:middle line:84% You can drop them from an operational height. 00:01:46.780 --> 00:01:47.947 align:middle line:90% You can do all these things. 00:01:47.947 --> 00:01:51.660 align:middle line:84% They easily withstood the floods at Fukushima. 00:01:51.660 --> 00:01:53.220 align:middle line:90% They can withstand fires. 00:01:53.220 --> 00:01:56.120 align:middle line:84% They won't withstand armor-piercing munitions, 00:01:56.120 --> 00:01:59.530 align:middle line:84% particularly, if you really want to destroy one of these things, 00:01:59.530 --> 00:02:00.750 align:middle line:90% you can. 00:02:00.750 --> 00:02:03.090 align:middle line:84% But they're robust against accidents. 00:02:03.090 --> 00:02:07.540 align:middle line:90% 00:02:07.540 --> 00:02:11.350 align:middle line:84% I guess one of the problems with all of this, both in the casks 00:02:11.350 --> 00:02:16.630 align:middle line:84% and in the spent fuel pool, is that we did this calculation 00:02:16.630 --> 00:02:20.270 align:middle line:84% in the last lecture about how many deaths 00:02:20.270 --> 00:02:22.790 align:middle line:84% were caused by releasing principally 00:02:22.790 --> 00:02:26.670 align:middle line:90% Cesium-137 from a reactor core. 00:02:26.670 --> 00:02:31.310 align:middle line:84% This spent fuel pool contains many, many, many reactor cores. 00:02:31.310 --> 00:02:35.830 align:middle line:84% And while Cesium-137 has a 30-year half-life, 00:02:35.830 --> 00:02:43.590 align:middle line:84% that means in the oldest bundle, a little bit less than 1/2 00:02:43.590 --> 00:02:48.190 align:middle line:90% of the cesium is still there. 00:02:48.190 --> 00:02:51.950 align:middle line:84% So there's a lot of potential for harm 00:02:51.950 --> 00:02:55.430 align:middle line:84% here, if either something happens 00:02:55.430 --> 00:02:59.630 align:middle line:84% that disperses the fuel from this pool or from these casks. 00:02:59.630 --> 00:03:03.790 align:middle line:90% So it does need to be protected. 00:03:03.790 --> 00:03:06.670 align:middle line:84% The protections at this level are principally 00:03:06.670 --> 00:03:08.990 align:middle line:84% the concrete itself and this chain link fence. 00:03:08.990 --> 00:03:12.990 align:middle line:90% 00:03:12.990 --> 00:03:17.270 align:middle line:84% One could ask whether we should try to do better. 00:03:17.270 --> 00:03:19.645 align:middle line:84% This is going to be fine against some guy with a shotgun. 00:03:19.645 --> 00:03:21.562 align:middle line:84% These are not going to be fine against someone 00:03:21.562 --> 00:03:22.790 align:middle line:90% who knows what they're doing. 00:03:22.790 --> 00:03:26.990 align:middle line:84% And that's the kind of issue here. 00:03:26.990 --> 00:03:30.830 align:middle line:84% Because of these risks, because concerns about the integrity 00:03:30.830 --> 00:03:32.467 align:middle line:90% of the fuel or-- yeah? 00:03:32.467 --> 00:03:35.050 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: What counts as someone who knows what they're doing? 00:03:35.050 --> 00:03:38.236 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:03:38.236 --> 00:03:39.910 align:middle line:84% What would they do to get into it? 00:03:39.910 --> 00:03:42.350 align:middle line:90% What are we worried about? 00:03:42.350 --> 00:03:46.430 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: So anything that is armor piercing, 00:03:46.430 --> 00:03:49.770 align:middle line:84% so for example, a shaped charge would be a problem. 00:03:49.770 --> 00:03:50.270 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 00:03:50.270 --> 00:03:52.615 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: A shaped charge? 00:03:52.615 --> 00:03:54.740 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Should I teach shaped munitions now? 00:03:54.740 --> 00:03:56.420 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:03:56.420 --> 00:03:59.580 align:middle line:90% Let's talk after class. 00:03:59.580 --> 00:04:00.180 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 00:04:00.180 --> 00:04:02.780 align:middle line:90% 00:04:02.780 --> 00:04:06.660 align:middle line:84% So because of these potential risks-- 00:04:06.660 --> 00:04:10.780 align:middle line:84% corrosion risk, longevity risk, security risks-- 00:04:10.780 --> 00:04:14.780 align:middle line:84% nobody really wants to store the fuel indefinitely above ground. 00:04:14.780 --> 00:04:17.779 align:middle line:84% Everyone agrees we've got to get this stuff underground, 00:04:17.779 --> 00:04:21.579 align:middle line:84% ideally at 1/2 a kilometer underground or something like 00:04:21.579 --> 00:04:27.500 align:middle line:84% that, where this becomes a non-concern. 00:04:27.500 --> 00:04:30.620 align:middle line:84% So that's called geologic disposal and that's 00:04:30.620 --> 00:04:33.260 align:middle line:90% the name of the game. 00:04:33.260 --> 00:04:37.460 align:middle line:84% But the issue is-- we are not yet there. 00:04:37.460 --> 00:04:41.780 align:middle line:84% So I'll have a little story about that a little bit later. 00:04:41.780 --> 00:04:45.860 align:middle line:84% How long do we really need to protect this stuff? 00:04:45.860 --> 00:04:51.420 align:middle line:84% Well, there are some crazy standards. 00:04:51.420 --> 00:04:54.837 align:middle line:90% So currently, the standard-- 00:04:54.837 --> 00:04:56.920 align:middle line:84% I'll tell you the exact standard in a little bit-- 00:04:56.920 --> 00:05:01.740 align:middle line:84% but the view is the fuel should be 00:05:01.740 --> 00:05:05.860 align:middle line:84% no more toxic than natural uranium ore 00:05:05.860 --> 00:05:08.260 align:middle line:90% than you find in the ground. 00:05:08.260 --> 00:05:13.140 align:middle line:84% So here, this is all normal on natural uranium. 00:05:13.140 --> 00:05:14.640 align:middle line:90% And here's the spent fuel. 00:05:14.640 --> 00:05:21.300 align:middle line:84% And you'll see that eventually it does get down here. 00:05:21.300 --> 00:05:22.420 align:middle line:90% Let me see. 00:05:22.420 --> 00:05:24.958 align:middle line:84% Yeah, this is all elements of the fuel cycle 00:05:24.958 --> 00:05:27.000 align:middle line:84% and this is just the fuel itself in dotted green. 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:33.300 align:middle line:84% So eventually, it does get down here after like 250,000 years 00:05:33.300 --> 00:05:35.700 align:middle line:90% or something like that. 00:05:35.700 --> 00:05:40.360 align:middle line:84% Then, you can debate whether that's a reasonable standard. 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.940 align:middle line:90% It has a certain logic to it. 00:05:43.940 --> 00:05:48.380 align:middle line:84% But 250,000 years is a very, very long time to be trying 00:05:48.380 --> 00:05:50.420 align:middle line:90% to protect this fuel. 00:05:50.420 --> 00:05:53.610 align:middle line:84% And I just want to put that into perspective. 00:05:53.610 --> 00:05:56.590 align:middle line:84% Here is the age of one political administration, 00:05:56.590 --> 00:05:58.610 align:middle line:84% which will become relevant in a second. 00:05:58.610 --> 00:06:01.770 align:middle line:84% Here's the average age of a congressperson's tenure. 00:06:01.770 --> 00:06:04.410 align:middle line:90% Here's the age of a country. 00:06:04.410 --> 00:06:08.050 align:middle line:84% So most countries do not live long enough 00:06:08.050 --> 00:06:10.850 align:middle line:84% to really manage this waste, which is 00:06:10.850 --> 00:06:12.530 align:middle line:90% an interesting contemplation. 00:06:12.530 --> 00:06:14.990 align:middle line:84% There's the age of the United States. 00:06:14.990 --> 00:06:18.010 align:middle line:84% Here's the age of written language, 00:06:18.010 --> 00:06:22.970 align:middle line:84% age of civilized society, the time between ice ages. 00:06:22.970 --> 00:06:25.690 align:middle line:84% Good luck managing it through several ice ages. 00:06:25.690 --> 00:06:27.770 align:middle line:90% This is a log chart-- 00:06:27.770 --> 00:06:29.850 align:middle line:90% age of our species. 00:06:29.850 --> 00:06:36.130 align:middle line:84% So you really start to think these timescales are really big. 00:06:36.130 --> 00:06:39.410 align:middle line:84% It's easy to just say 250,000 years. 00:06:39.410 --> 00:06:42.970 align:middle line:84% And then you have to realize that there's several ice ages 00:06:42.970 --> 00:06:45.250 align:middle line:84% and longer than humans have been around. 00:06:45.250 --> 00:06:49.730 align:middle line:90% That's a scary, scary thought. 00:06:49.730 --> 00:06:53.792 align:middle line:84% So the exact standard, if you want to know, 00:06:53.792 --> 00:06:56.250 align:middle line:84% in the United States is set by the Environmental Protection 00:06:56.250 --> 00:06:58.010 align:middle line:90% Agency, the EPA. 00:06:58.010 --> 00:07:02.610 align:middle line:84% They say that what they call a reasonably maximally 00:07:02.610 --> 00:07:04.370 align:middle line:90% exposed individual-- 00:07:04.370 --> 00:07:07.450 align:middle line:84% this is a person who lives right on top of the waste 00:07:07.450 --> 00:07:10.532 align:middle line:84% repository and drills a hole for groundwater 00:07:10.532 --> 00:07:12.990 align:middle line:84% and lives their whole life drinking water out of this well. 00:07:12.990 --> 00:07:15.690 align:middle line:84% This is something along these lines. 00:07:15.690 --> 00:07:22.290 align:middle line:84% They want the exposure for the first 10,000 years to be no more 00:07:22.290 --> 00:07:26.610 align:middle line:84% than 1/20 of the natural background, 150 microsieverts. 00:07:26.610 --> 00:07:30.830 align:middle line:84% And then at some point after 10,000 years, 00:07:30.830 --> 00:07:33.010 align:middle line:90% there could be some event-- 00:07:33.010 --> 00:07:35.970 align:middle line:84% catastrophic tunnel collapse or corrosion 00:07:35.970 --> 00:07:39.890 align:middle line:84% of the package-- that might lead to a burst of radionuclides 00:07:39.890 --> 00:07:41.730 align:middle line:90% coming out at some future point. 00:07:41.730 --> 00:07:46.650 align:middle line:84% And they say that that burst of nuclides cannot exceed 1 00:07:46.650 --> 00:07:50.120 align:middle line:84% millisievert, which is about 1/3 of natural background 00:07:50.120 --> 00:07:53.400 align:middle line:90% for the next 1 million years. 00:07:53.400 --> 00:07:56.080 align:middle line:84% And the reason it is so stringent 00:07:56.080 --> 00:07:59.600 align:middle line:84% is because that's what's written into the law. 00:07:59.600 --> 00:08:03.320 align:middle line:84% And I'll tell you where it comes from in a little bit. 00:08:03.320 --> 00:08:06.920 align:middle line:84% So this 10,000-year standard, which is the lesser of the two, 00:08:06.920 --> 00:08:10.680 align:middle line:84% that's twice the age of the pyramids. 00:08:10.680 --> 00:08:13.920 align:middle line:84% It's possible that humans can build structures in the middle 00:08:13.920 --> 00:08:17.560 align:middle line:84% of the desert out of stone that last that long, 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:21.560 align:middle line:84% but it's really hard to start thinking about engineering 00:08:21.560 --> 00:08:23.820 align:middle line:90% on 10,000-year timescales. 00:08:23.820 --> 00:08:24.320 align:middle line:90% Yeah? 00:08:24.320 --> 00:08:26.820 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Could you explain why the green line deviates from 00:08:26.820 --> 00:08:28.462 align:middle line:84% the dotted line at 100,000 years? 00:08:28.462 --> 00:08:30.920 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Why the solid green line and the dotted line 00:08:30.920 --> 00:08:31.580 align:middle line:90% diverge? 00:08:31.580 --> 00:08:34.919 align:middle line:84% Yeah, so this has to do with, this is the total of everything 00:08:34.919 --> 00:08:36.020 align:middle line:90% from the fuel cycle. 00:08:36.020 --> 00:08:38.799 align:middle line:84% So it includes depleted uranium tailings, 00:08:38.799 --> 00:08:42.960 align:middle line:84% which, Uranium-238 has a relatively long half-life. 00:08:42.960 --> 00:08:47.040 align:middle line:84% So it does not decay as fast as all 00:08:47.040 --> 00:08:49.560 align:middle line:84% the higher-order transuranics that 00:08:49.560 --> 00:08:54.200 align:middle line:84% have shorter half-lives, which is what's in the spent fuel. 00:08:54.200 --> 00:08:54.717 align:middle line:90% Yep? 00:08:54.717 --> 00:08:56.800 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Who is it that's making these guidelines 00:08:56.800 --> 00:08:58.480 align:middle line:90% on the release? 00:08:58.480 --> 00:08:59.360 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: EPA. 00:08:59.360 --> 00:09:03.220 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: So EPA is the one who enforces them, 00:09:03.220 --> 00:09:05.480 align:middle line:84% but the actual guidelines originate 00:09:05.480 --> 00:09:12.240 align:middle line:84% from a report that was done in 1955, I think, 00:09:12.240 --> 00:09:14.480 align:middle line:84% at Princeton University and reviewed by the National 00:09:14.480 --> 00:09:16.580 align:middle line:84% Academies and became a recommendation. 00:09:16.580 --> 00:09:19.140 align:middle line:84% And then the law basically cites that report 00:09:19.140 --> 00:09:20.960 align:middle line:84% and says-- this should be the standard. 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:22.860 align:middle line:90% So that's where it comes from. 00:09:22.860 --> 00:09:29.760 align:middle line:84% The EPA is the enforcer, but it's actually by law. 00:09:29.760 --> 00:09:33.160 align:middle line:84% So these guidelines, I think they're 00:09:33.160 --> 00:09:35.280 align:middle line:90% over stringent, personally. 00:09:35.280 --> 00:09:37.520 align:middle line:84% I understand where they come from. 00:09:37.520 --> 00:09:40.740 align:middle line:84% If you want a guideline that no one can complain about, 00:09:40.740 --> 00:09:41.540 align:middle line:90% this is it. 00:09:41.540 --> 00:09:45.190 align:middle line:84% It's no worse than the uranium that came out of the ground. 00:09:45.190 --> 00:09:49.530 align:middle line:84% But it's a tough thing to manage. 00:09:49.530 --> 00:09:51.230 align:middle line:90% OK, question down there. 00:09:51.230 --> 00:09:54.250 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Yeah, so I looked into it briefly for my research. 00:09:54.250 --> 00:09:57.590 align:middle line:84% And the EPA essentially admits that it's 00:09:57.590 --> 00:10:00.150 align:middle line:84% infeasible to look at these timescales. 00:10:00.150 --> 00:10:04.010 align:middle line:84% For the 10,000, they have like, you need to monitor the site. 00:10:04.010 --> 00:10:07.410 align:middle line:84% And they essentially say, well, but based on your monitoring, 00:10:07.410 --> 00:10:11.230 align:middle line:84% you don't have to show that you can make 10,000 years due 00:10:11.230 --> 00:10:13.270 align:middle line:90% to uncertainties involved. 00:10:13.270 --> 00:10:17.350 align:middle line:84% But then two paragraphs down in the Code of Federal Regulations, 00:10:17.350 --> 00:10:19.110 align:middle line:84% you have the line on, oh, but you also 00:10:19.110 --> 00:10:20.730 align:middle line:90% have to go for 1 million years. 00:10:20.730 --> 00:10:21.030 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Yeah. 00:10:21.030 --> 00:10:22.988 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: So it's like completely inconsistent. 00:10:22.988 --> 00:10:24.510 align:middle line:90% And they seem to know it. 00:10:24.510 --> 00:10:25.343 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Yeah. 00:10:25.343 --> 00:10:29.950 align:middle line:84% So in fact, they passed a rule getting rid 00:10:29.950 --> 00:10:33.770 align:middle line:90% of the million-year timescale. 00:10:33.770 --> 00:10:37.470 align:middle line:84% And that was overturned in court because the law specifically 00:10:37.470 --> 00:10:40.990 align:middle line:84% says that in the nuclear waste policy, 00:10:40.990 --> 00:10:43.970 align:middle line:84% that it has to match what's in this original report. 00:10:43.970 --> 00:10:48.070 align:middle line:84% And the original report alludes to many hundreds 00:10:48.070 --> 00:10:49.170 align:middle line:90% of thousands of years. 00:10:49.170 --> 00:10:50.550 align:middle line:90% They don't say a million years. 00:10:50.550 --> 00:10:52.292 align:middle line:84% So they said, at a million years, 00:10:52.292 --> 00:10:54.250 align:middle line:84% we've done many hundreds of thousands of years. 00:10:54.250 --> 00:10:57.530 align:middle line:84% This is base-10 thinking, in a sense. 00:10:57.530 --> 00:11:00.270 align:middle line:90% 00:11:00.270 --> 00:11:02.470 align:middle line:90% Yeah, it's a tough call. 00:11:02.470 --> 00:11:07.630 align:middle line:84% So I think we could work on this from a policy perspective. 00:11:07.630 --> 00:11:10.470 align:middle line:84% But this isn't really where the problem-- oh, 00:11:10.470 --> 00:11:11.930 align:middle line:90% yeah, one more question. 00:11:11.930 --> 00:11:15.230 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: How is the radiotoxicity defined? 00:11:15.230 --> 00:11:17.310 align:middle line:84% Suppose for a second you took all the oxides out 00:11:17.310 --> 00:11:20.510 align:middle line:84% of depleted fuel and you mix it in with a crap 00:11:20.510 --> 00:11:23.330 align:middle line:84% ton of other non-radioactive ceramics, 00:11:23.330 --> 00:11:25.710 align:middle line:84% does that now have a lower radiotoxicity or is it 00:11:25.710 --> 00:11:32.580 align:middle line:84% just the maximum from your isotopes? 00:11:32.580 --> 00:11:34.330 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Yeah, it's a good question. 00:11:34.330 --> 00:11:35.630 align:middle line:90% I should go back and look-- 00:11:35.630 --> 00:11:38.710 align:middle line:90% is it per gram or per nuclei? 00:11:38.710 --> 00:11:43.348 align:middle line:84% I suspect it's per gram of purified radionuclides. 00:11:43.348 --> 00:11:43.890 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: OK. 00:11:43.890 --> 00:11:45.090 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: But that's just a suspicion. 00:11:45.090 --> 00:11:45.590 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: OK. 00:11:45.590 --> 00:11:46.150 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Yeah. 00:11:46.150 --> 00:11:46.650 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 00:11:46.650 --> 00:11:49.270 align:middle line:90% 00:11:49.270 --> 00:11:51.510 align:middle line:84% I mean, given the log scale, it's 00:11:51.510 --> 00:11:53.010 align:middle line:84% not going to make a huge difference. 00:11:53.010 --> 00:11:54.550 align:middle line:90% Yeah, got one more. 00:11:54.550 --> 00:11:59.150 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I've read some articles and papers on how 00:11:59.150 --> 00:12:04.050 align:middle line:84% to effectively warn future generations about nuclear waste, 00:12:04.050 --> 00:12:06.470 align:middle line:84% like in 10,000 years in the far future. 00:12:06.470 --> 00:12:10.510 align:middle line:84% Is this something that concerns policymakers or scientists 00:12:10.510 --> 00:12:12.633 align:middle line:84% or it's just science fiction or whatever? 00:12:12.633 --> 00:12:14.550 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: I don't think this is something 00:12:14.550 --> 00:12:16.410 align:middle line:90% that really concerns them. 00:12:16.410 --> 00:12:17.150 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:12:17.150 --> 00:12:19.710 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: But there are people, serious people, 00:12:19.710 --> 00:12:23.350 align:middle line:90% who have looked into this-- 00:12:23.350 --> 00:12:25.250 align:middle line:84% what kind of symbols do we build? 00:12:25.250 --> 00:12:26.777 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Danger symbols. 00:12:26.777 --> 00:12:27.610 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Yeah. 00:12:27.610 --> 00:12:31.810 align:middle line:84% I think the people who do it obviously 00:12:31.810 --> 00:12:33.550 align:middle line:90% take it very seriously. 00:12:33.550 --> 00:12:34.470 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 00:12:34.470 --> 00:12:35.950 align:middle line:84% But I don't think most policymakers 00:12:35.950 --> 00:12:37.130 align:middle line:90% think too hard about it. 00:12:37.130 --> 00:12:42.020 align:middle line:90% 00:12:42.020 --> 00:12:42.860 align:middle line:90% OK. 00:12:42.860 --> 00:12:48.340 align:middle line:84% So the IAEA has given these guidelines 00:12:48.340 --> 00:12:50.740 align:middle line:84% for how to find a waste repository. 00:12:50.740 --> 00:12:54.660 align:middle line:84% There should be evidence of long-term geologic stability 00:12:54.660 --> 00:12:56.300 align:middle line:84% because it would reduce probability 00:12:56.300 --> 00:12:59.740 align:middle line:84% of seismicity and volcanism over the storage time. 00:12:59.740 --> 00:13:03.020 align:middle line:84% This should be low groundwater content and flow to prevent 00:13:03.020 --> 00:13:06.420 align:middle line:84% transport over 100,000-year timescales. 00:13:06.420 --> 00:13:07.620 align:middle line:90% This is a big one. 00:13:07.620 --> 00:13:10.720 align:middle line:90% Water, of course, contains ions. 00:13:10.720 --> 00:13:12.160 align:middle line:90% Ions means corrosion. 00:13:12.160 --> 00:13:14.500 align:middle line:90% This is how things move around. 00:13:14.500 --> 00:13:17.020 align:middle line:84% Stable chemical conditions-- mainly this 00:13:17.020 --> 00:13:18.860 align:middle line:84% means a reducing environment rather than 00:13:18.860 --> 00:13:21.160 align:middle line:90% an oxidizing environment. 00:13:21.160 --> 00:13:23.940 align:middle line:84% Typically, for most geologies, if you are above the water 00:13:23.940 --> 00:13:28.060 align:middle line:84% table, you have water percolating through the air, 00:13:28.060 --> 00:13:30.520 align:middle line:84% then through the ground and settling in the water table, 00:13:30.520 --> 00:13:33.680 align:middle line:84% constantly bringing dissolved oxygen into that environment. 00:13:33.680 --> 00:13:35.620 align:middle line:84% So above the water table, you are typically 00:13:35.620 --> 00:13:37.420 align:middle line:90% in an oxidizing environment. 00:13:37.420 --> 00:13:39.260 align:middle line:84% Below the water table, you are typically 00:13:39.260 --> 00:13:41.140 align:middle line:90% in a reducing environment. 00:13:41.140 --> 00:13:43.183 align:middle line:90% So this is a third one. 00:13:43.183 --> 00:13:45.600 align:middle line:84% And then you need to have some good structural properties. 00:13:45.600 --> 00:13:48.420 align:middle line:84% You don't want to build this stuff out of fluff. 00:13:48.420 --> 00:13:51.340 align:middle line:84% You want it to be granite or something that 00:13:51.340 --> 00:13:54.180 align:middle line:84% won't collapse on top of your spent fuel canister. 00:13:54.180 --> 00:13:58.220 align:middle line:84% So these are the principles and we're going to just bear these 00:13:58.220 --> 00:14:02.020 align:middle line:84% in mind when we talk about different siting locations. 00:14:02.020 --> 00:14:06.820 align:middle line:84% So let's talk a little bit about the history of what the United 00:14:06.820 --> 00:14:07.935 align:middle line:90% States has done. 00:14:07.935 --> 00:14:10.560 align:middle line:84% The United States has done more on this than any other country. 00:14:10.560 --> 00:14:13.340 align:middle line:84% I'll talk briefly about what other countries have done. 00:14:13.340 --> 00:14:17.140 align:middle line:84% And this problem goes back to 1947. 00:14:17.140 --> 00:14:19.660 align:middle line:84% Now, in 1947, you might remember that there 00:14:19.660 --> 00:14:23.580 align:middle line:84% was no nuclear power around in 1947, 00:14:23.580 --> 00:14:26.980 align:middle line:84% but we did have nuclear waste from the nuclear weapons 00:14:26.980 --> 00:14:27.680 align:middle line:90% program. 00:14:27.680 --> 00:14:30.900 align:middle line:84% We had fuel for these graphite reactors, which 00:14:30.900 --> 00:14:32.460 align:middle line:90% we used to make plutonium. 00:14:32.460 --> 00:14:37.010 align:middle line:84% And there are some pictures of some of these fuel bundles. 00:14:37.010 --> 00:14:42.293 align:middle line:84% And so a committee on atomic waste was established in 1955. 00:14:42.293 --> 00:14:44.210 align:middle line:84% And they held this conference that I mentioned 00:14:44.210 --> 00:14:45.690 align:middle line:90% at Princeton University. 00:14:45.690 --> 00:14:49.010 align:middle line:84% And they published a report under the guise of the National 00:14:49.010 --> 00:14:51.250 align:middle line:90% Academies in 1957. 00:14:51.250 --> 00:14:54.670 align:middle line:84% And that report made the following recommendations, 00:14:54.670 --> 00:14:57.730 align:middle line:84% the initial report, that the waste should be isolated 00:14:57.730 --> 00:15:03.450 align:middle line:84% for 600 years, at which point, it would be approximately 300 00:15:03.450 --> 00:15:06.330 align:middle line:84% times more toxic than yellowcake uranium, 00:15:06.330 --> 00:15:11.850 align:middle line:84% and that the ideal geology for this was salt, salt beds. 00:15:11.850 --> 00:15:13.450 align:middle line:90% Seems reasonable. 00:15:13.450 --> 00:15:16.130 align:middle line:90% Why are they interested in salt? 00:15:16.130 --> 00:15:19.650 align:middle line:84% So here's a picture of a salt mine. 00:15:19.650 --> 00:15:22.450 align:middle line:90% Salt is very interesting stuff. 00:15:22.450 --> 00:15:26.330 align:middle line:84% A, it is typically dry for a very long time. 00:15:26.330 --> 00:15:30.290 align:middle line:84% If it weren't dry, it wouldn't still be there. 00:15:30.290 --> 00:15:33.330 align:middle line:84% These are like evaporated oceans. 00:15:33.330 --> 00:15:36.410 align:middle line:84% So another interesting element of salt-- 00:15:36.410 --> 00:15:41.930 align:middle line:84% and I wish I had a photo, but I don't-- is that it's stable 00:15:41.930 --> 00:15:46.130 align:middle line:84% on reasonably long, 100-year timescales, 00:15:46.130 --> 00:15:49.930 align:middle line:84% but on 1,000-year timescales it actually creeps. 00:15:49.930 --> 00:15:53.450 align:middle line:84% And so what happens is these caverns will slowly close in. 00:15:53.450 --> 00:15:56.250 align:middle line:84% So you can find these really old salt mines 00:15:56.250 --> 00:15:59.770 align:middle line:90% where you have a tunnel. 00:15:59.770 --> 00:16:04.170 align:middle line:84% And you'll see these train tracks, rail tracks, 00:16:04.170 --> 00:16:05.790 align:middle line:90% going into the mine. 00:16:05.790 --> 00:16:08.730 align:middle line:84% And then they just disappear into the wall. 00:16:08.730 --> 00:16:13.770 align:middle line:84% And that's because the salt closes in and seals 00:16:13.770 --> 00:16:15.970 align:middle line:90% in whatever's in there. 00:16:15.970 --> 00:16:21.950 align:middle line:84% And so that gave rise to the idea that salt is self-healing. 00:16:21.950 --> 00:16:25.993 align:middle line:84% So if you have a crack, like you might have a crack in granite 00:16:25.993 --> 00:16:27.410 align:middle line:84% or something, and that crack could 00:16:27.410 --> 00:16:29.610 align:middle line:84% propagate for a long distance, and it 00:16:29.610 --> 00:16:32.690 align:middle line:84% could be a vector by which rainwater or something could get 00:16:32.690 --> 00:16:34.560 align:middle line:90% in and out of the repository. 00:16:34.560 --> 00:16:38.700 align:middle line:84% But for salt, it will anneal itself and close up. 00:16:38.700 --> 00:16:40.920 align:middle line:84% And so they saw this as basically 00:16:40.920 --> 00:16:44.320 align:middle line:90% like a naturally occurring tank. 00:16:44.320 --> 00:16:46.440 align:middle line:84% And so you would put stuff in there 00:16:46.440 --> 00:16:48.240 align:middle line:90% and then that would be safe. 00:16:48.240 --> 00:16:50.240 align:middle line:84% And because it is dry, you don't have 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:52.880 align:middle line:84% to worry about heating up entrapped water 00:16:52.880 --> 00:16:55.000 align:middle line:84% and things like that, and causing problems. 00:16:55.000 --> 00:16:57.680 align:middle line:90% So that was the idea. 00:16:57.680 --> 00:17:00.960 align:middle line:84% They also came up with a second plan. 00:17:00.960 --> 00:17:04.420 align:middle line:84% They said, well, if we can't put it in salt, 00:17:04.420 --> 00:17:06.640 align:middle line:84% the second choice would be to dissolve 00:17:06.640 --> 00:17:08.520 align:middle line:90% the spent fuel in glass. 00:17:08.520 --> 00:17:13.560 align:middle line:84% And as you may know, glass dissolves almost everything. 00:17:13.560 --> 00:17:16.540 align:middle line:84% So you could make these glass pucks, 00:17:16.540 --> 00:17:21.359 align:middle line:84% and they could be filled with waste, and it's pretty stable. 00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:23.200 align:middle line:90% This is called vitrification. 00:17:23.200 --> 00:17:25.599 align:middle line:90% This idea is still around. 00:17:25.599 --> 00:17:28.800 align:middle line:84% But it turns out, it's not yet really mature. 00:17:28.800 --> 00:17:30.940 align:middle line:84% It turns out not to be as simple as it looks, 00:17:30.940 --> 00:17:33.460 align:middle line:84% because when you're dealing with fission products, 00:17:33.460 --> 00:17:38.840 align:middle line:84% you're dealing with every isotope or every element 00:17:38.840 --> 00:17:39.940 align:middle line:90% that there is. 00:17:39.940 --> 00:17:43.320 align:middle line:84% And when you have to contend with that many elements, 00:17:43.320 --> 00:17:45.480 align:middle line:84% the chemistry gets a little weird. 00:17:45.480 --> 00:17:47.680 align:middle line:84% So it turns out some of the elements 00:17:47.680 --> 00:17:50.167 align:middle line:84% are volatile at temperatures lower 00:17:50.167 --> 00:17:51.500 align:middle line:90% than the melting point of glass. 00:17:51.500 --> 00:17:54.680 align:middle line:84% So you try to add them in and they just boil out. 00:17:54.680 --> 00:17:58.600 align:middle line:84% Other problems are certain elements actually precipitate 00:17:58.600 --> 00:18:02.240 align:middle line:84% at reasonably low concentrations in the glass. 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:06.060 align:middle line:84% So you'll get these crusts forming on the outside. 00:18:06.060 --> 00:18:10.720 align:middle line:84% So it's not really suspended in the glass. 00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:14.720 align:middle line:84% And some elements cause corrosion 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:18.600 align:middle line:84% processes in certain kinds of glasses, with lots of glasses. 00:18:18.600 --> 00:18:21.200 align:middle line:84% So lots of work continues to be done 00:18:21.200 --> 00:18:25.160 align:middle line:90% on glass-based vitrification. 00:18:25.160 --> 00:18:27.520 align:middle line:84% The idea was we would make these radioactive pucks 00:18:27.520 --> 00:18:29.840 align:middle line:84% and we would basically put them in a storage warehouse 00:18:29.840 --> 00:18:35.230 align:middle line:84% and they would be chemically stable and not leach out stuff. 00:18:35.230 --> 00:18:39.110 align:middle line:84% I think although this is still going on, 00:18:39.110 --> 00:18:42.750 align:middle line:84% I'm not exactly sure really how good this 00:18:42.750 --> 00:18:45.790 align:middle line:84% is at the end of the day, because to really get 00:18:45.790 --> 00:18:48.950 align:middle line:84% the isolation, you still need to do geologic disposal. 00:18:48.950 --> 00:18:56.070 align:middle line:84% And so it's a lot of faffing about with dissolving fuel 00:18:56.070 --> 00:18:58.490 align:middle line:84% and dealing with off-gases that are radioactive, 00:18:58.490 --> 00:18:59.630 align:middle line:90% et cetera, et cetera. 00:18:59.630 --> 00:19:03.310 align:middle line:84% All of that just increases the risk of an event happening. 00:19:03.310 --> 00:19:05.510 align:middle line:84% And since, as we'll learn in a moment, most of it 00:19:05.510 --> 00:19:08.670 align:middle line:84% is heat limited, not volume limited, 00:19:08.670 --> 00:19:10.710 align:middle line:84% like taking a big fuel bundle and dissolving it 00:19:10.710 --> 00:19:14.190 align:middle line:84% into a puff of glass is not really a giant benefit. 00:19:14.190 --> 00:19:20.350 align:middle line:84% So the glass thing probably isn't really the answer here. 00:19:20.350 --> 00:19:23.050 align:middle line:84% So the AEC chose salt. And so what did they do? 00:19:23.050 --> 00:19:25.850 align:middle line:84% They dutifully followed this advice, 00:19:25.850 --> 00:19:27.470 align:middle line:84% and they went and found a salt mine. 00:19:27.470 --> 00:19:30.310 align:middle line:84% And they looked in New York and they looked in Michigan, 00:19:30.310 --> 00:19:32.590 align:middle line:84% where there are some salt beds, but they eventually 00:19:32.590 --> 00:19:34.870 align:middle line:84% found an abandoned salt mine outside 00:19:34.870 --> 00:19:38.610 align:middle line:84% of the town of Lyons, Kansas, and they really liked it. 00:19:38.610 --> 00:19:40.910 align:middle line:84% It had the right thickness, the right depth. 00:19:40.910 --> 00:19:42.830 align:middle line:84% It recently closed, which means there 00:19:42.830 --> 00:19:45.870 align:middle line:84% were a lot of unemployed people who knew how to operate the mine 00:19:45.870 --> 00:19:48.430 align:middle line:90% but were looking for jobs. 00:19:48.430 --> 00:19:51.310 align:middle line:84% And so they decided to buy this mine 00:19:51.310 --> 00:19:55.670 align:middle line:84% and reopen it for placing nuclear waste. 00:19:55.670 --> 00:20:00.090 align:middle line:84% In 1959, they began doing experiments using liquid waste. 00:20:00.090 --> 00:20:02.990 align:middle line:84% A lot of the waste coming out of the weapons program 00:20:02.990 --> 00:20:05.350 align:middle line:84% was actually liquid waste, because we 00:20:05.350 --> 00:20:08.870 align:middle line:84% had dissolved the fuel to extract the plutonium. 00:20:08.870 --> 00:20:13.550 align:middle line:84% And in 1956, they began placing fuel elements, solid fuel 00:20:13.550 --> 00:20:16.750 align:middle line:84% elements, to measure what effect that the radiation would 00:20:16.750 --> 00:20:20.630 align:middle line:84% have on the salt. And no surprise-- ionic bonds in salts 00:20:20.630 --> 00:20:22.370 align:middle line:90% are very robust to radiation. 00:20:22.370 --> 00:20:25.150 align:middle line:84% You break them and they instantly just reform. 00:20:25.150 --> 00:20:28.880 align:middle line:84% And so it looked like everything was going well, 00:20:28.880 --> 00:20:30.200 align:middle line:90% and they published a report. 00:20:30.200 --> 00:20:32.580 align:middle line:84% And they said the results are most encouraging. 00:20:32.580 --> 00:20:36.780 align:middle line:84% Now the problem was they basically did this in secret 00:20:36.780 --> 00:20:40.180 align:middle line:84% without telling the state of Kansas or the surrounding 00:20:40.180 --> 00:20:42.420 align:middle line:84% communities that they were storing nuclear waste 00:20:42.420 --> 00:20:44.220 align:middle line:90% in this salt mine. 00:20:44.220 --> 00:20:48.420 align:middle line:84% And so a local newspaper got wind of what they were doing 00:20:48.420 --> 00:20:51.440 align:middle line:84% and wrote in their newspaper column, 00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:53.360 align:middle line:84% quote, "As far as we can discern, 00:20:53.360 --> 00:20:56.200 align:middle line:84% fissionable material is more dangerous than a landmine. 00:20:56.200 --> 00:20:59.220 align:middle line:84% Nobody is too wild about having atomic energy bubbling under his 00:20:59.220 --> 00:21:00.380 align:middle line:90% backyard." 00:21:00.380 --> 00:21:03.500 align:middle line:84% They didn't know what to make of this. 00:21:03.500 --> 00:21:06.180 align:middle line:84% But despite these intrepid journalists 00:21:06.180 --> 00:21:08.580 align:middle line:84% trying to get the scoop, it turns out 00:21:08.580 --> 00:21:12.160 align:middle line:84% the citizens of Lyons, Kansas, were quite excited-- well, 00:21:12.160 --> 00:21:18.140 align:middle line:84% at least mildly optimistic about potentially being a new waste 00:21:18.140 --> 00:21:21.900 align:middle line:84% repository for the great Atomic Energy Commission, 00:21:21.900 --> 00:21:23.500 align:middle line:84% people who gave us the nuclear bomb. 00:21:23.500 --> 00:21:25.620 align:middle line:90% What was going on? 00:21:25.620 --> 00:21:29.080 align:middle line:84% Well, we didn't have general paranoia about nuclear energy. 00:21:29.080 --> 00:21:30.160 align:middle line:90% It was the atomic age. 00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:31.740 align:middle line:90% People loved the idea. 00:21:31.740 --> 00:21:34.340 align:middle line:84% And the government, the federal government, 00:21:34.340 --> 00:21:37.100 align:middle line:84% was held in high esteem, and this 00:21:37.100 --> 00:21:39.180 align:middle line:84% was a job opportunity for a place that 00:21:39.180 --> 00:21:40.720 align:middle line:90% recently lost a lot of jobs. 00:21:40.720 --> 00:21:44.300 align:middle line:84% And people were optimistic that this was a good thing 00:21:44.300 --> 00:21:45.200 align:middle line:90% for their community. 00:21:45.200 --> 00:21:50.460 align:middle line:84% So despite these journalists, nothing negative happened. 00:21:50.460 --> 00:21:53.660 align:middle line:84% But what did happen is that the government 00:21:53.660 --> 00:21:58.060 align:middle line:84% of Kansas, the state of Kansas started to pay attention. 00:21:58.060 --> 00:22:00.860 align:middle line:84% And so five years into the effort, 00:22:00.860 --> 00:22:03.740 align:middle line:84% the Kansas State Geological Survey-- 00:22:03.740 --> 00:22:06.180 align:middle line:84% so they're responsible for knowing 00:22:06.180 --> 00:22:09.260 align:middle line:84% where oil wells and mines are and what's going 00:22:09.260 --> 00:22:12.100 align:middle line:90% on with the geology of Kansas-- 00:22:12.100 --> 00:22:13.720 align:middle line:84% the director started to get involved. 00:22:13.720 --> 00:22:16.180 align:middle line:84% And he reviewed all the AEC studies. 00:22:16.180 --> 00:22:23.960 align:middle line:84% And the Kansas Geological Survey said the AEC has a, quote, 00:22:23.960 --> 00:22:27.300 align:middle line:84% "oversimplified view of geology." 00:22:27.300 --> 00:22:30.460 align:middle line:84% The concern was they did not take baseline measurements 00:22:30.460 --> 00:22:32.500 align:middle line:84% of water ingress, and it had long 00:22:32.500 --> 00:22:36.980 align:middle line:84% been known since 1926 that the edges of this particular salt 00:22:36.980 --> 00:22:40.700 align:middle line:90% repository-- 00:22:40.700 --> 00:22:42.740 align:middle line:90% I have a photo, yeah-- 00:22:42.740 --> 00:22:44.240 align:middle line:84% here's the salt at different depths, 00:22:44.240 --> 00:22:46.420 align:middle line:84% and the edges of the salt repository 00:22:46.420 --> 00:22:52.580 align:middle line:84% were dissolving from water ingress. 00:22:52.580 --> 00:22:56.520 align:middle line:84% So that could potentially lead to some presence of water. 00:22:56.520 --> 00:22:59.360 align:middle line:90% And remember the IAEA criteria? 00:22:59.360 --> 00:23:01.140 align:middle line:90% You don't want water present. 00:23:01.140 --> 00:23:04.020 align:middle line:84% He also said that they neglected to note 00:23:04.020 --> 00:23:06.060 align:middle line:84% that many vertical holes had been 00:23:06.060 --> 00:23:10.060 align:middle line:84% drilled through the salt for oil and gas exploration. 00:23:10.060 --> 00:23:13.500 align:middle line:84% So these pierced through the salt layer and then went deeper. 00:23:13.500 --> 00:23:15.900 align:middle line:84% And that provided a potential channel 00:23:15.900 --> 00:23:18.800 align:middle line:84% for the leakage of radionuclides. 00:23:18.800 --> 00:23:23.430 align:middle line:84% And so this map shows you where you have subsistence areas. 00:23:23.430 --> 00:23:26.490 align:middle line:84% And all of these little marks are different wells and test 00:23:26.490 --> 00:23:30.110 align:middle line:84% holes that were drilled into the salt beds at various locations. 00:23:30.110 --> 00:23:34.450 align:middle line:84% And there might have even been more than were actually 00:23:34.450 --> 00:23:36.530 align:middle line:90% documented on this map. 00:23:36.530 --> 00:23:42.890 align:middle line:84% So he also said that salt, because of this flowing dynamic 00:23:42.890 --> 00:23:46.390 align:middle line:84% that I talked about that makes it a self-sealing salt, well, 00:23:46.390 --> 00:23:52.570 align:middle line:84% it also means that when you have an uneven upper crust like this, 00:23:52.570 --> 00:23:58.730 align:middle line:84% the overburden of this rock will squish the salt out this way. 00:23:58.730 --> 00:24:01.390 align:middle line:84% So it's not actually that stable. 00:24:01.390 --> 00:24:03.730 align:middle line:84% Anybody ever heard of a salt dome? 00:24:03.730 --> 00:24:08.870 align:middle line:84% So a salt dome, we store oil and natural gas in salt domes. 00:24:08.870 --> 00:24:09.790 align:middle line:90% It's exactly this. 00:24:09.790 --> 00:24:14.610 align:middle line:84% It's a situation where, underground, you 00:24:14.610 --> 00:24:20.670 align:middle line:84% have a layer of salt and in this rock above it, 00:24:20.670 --> 00:24:26.490 align:middle line:90% you have a crack or something. 00:24:26.490 --> 00:24:29.490 align:middle line:84% And what happens is the salt plastically 00:24:29.490 --> 00:24:34.010 align:middle line:84% deforms and creates this balloon of salt that 00:24:34.010 --> 00:24:35.830 align:middle line:90% comes up closer to the surface. 00:24:35.830 --> 00:24:39.050 align:middle line:84% And so what we do is we drill holes in here 00:24:39.050 --> 00:24:42.050 align:middle line:90% and store stuff in these. 00:24:42.050 --> 00:24:46.010 align:middle line:84% And it's a great way to build very, very, very large storage 00:24:46.010 --> 00:24:47.570 align:middle line:90% tanks. 00:24:47.570 --> 00:24:50.850 align:middle line:84% But this phenomenon of flowing salt 00:24:50.850 --> 00:24:54.110 align:middle line:84% was happening because, as you can see from this plot, 00:24:54.110 --> 00:24:57.530 align:middle line:84% it wasn't a totally flat, soft bed. 00:24:57.530 --> 00:25:03.030 align:middle line:84% So it had been cold flowing and squirting out and moving. 00:25:03.030 --> 00:25:07.010 align:middle line:84% And so you didn't really have the structural stability 00:25:07.010 --> 00:25:09.130 align:middle line:90% that you ideally wanted to have. 00:25:09.130 --> 00:25:12.970 align:middle line:84% So these are all things that geologists know. 00:25:12.970 --> 00:25:14.970 align:middle line:84% Geologists immediately will tell you salt moves 00:25:14.970 --> 00:25:16.810 align:middle line:90% around like crazy. 00:25:16.810 --> 00:25:18.750 align:middle line:84% The AEC, which is full of nuclear engineers, 00:25:18.750 --> 00:25:20.142 align:middle line:90% did not know this stuff. 00:25:20.142 --> 00:25:22.600 align:middle line:84% They were just choosing salt because the National Academies 00:25:22.600 --> 00:25:26.640 align:middle line:90% report basically told them to. 00:25:26.640 --> 00:25:32.760 align:middle line:84% So the AEC didn't like being criticized about its programs. 00:25:32.760 --> 00:25:37.600 align:middle line:84% And so what the state of Kansas did 00:25:37.600 --> 00:25:41.640 align:middle line:84% was to organize a conference, a scientific conference, 00:25:41.640 --> 00:25:44.400 align:middle line:84% to review all of these issues that they raised 00:25:44.400 --> 00:25:49.560 align:middle line:84% and invite a bunch of geologists to come and give papers. 00:25:49.560 --> 00:25:52.520 align:middle line:84% And the AEC did not like the fact that the state of Kansas 00:25:52.520 --> 00:25:54.620 align:middle line:84% was getting involved in their project. 00:25:54.620 --> 00:25:57.060 align:middle line:84% And so in the middle of the conference, 00:25:57.060 --> 00:25:58.400 align:middle line:90% they held a press conference. 00:25:58.400 --> 00:25:59.900 align:middle line:84% In the middle of the scientific conference, 00:25:59.900 --> 00:26:01.817 align:middle line:84% the AEC held a press conference and announced, 00:26:01.817 --> 00:26:03.720 align:middle line:90% we're opening the repository. 00:26:03.720 --> 00:26:08.160 align:middle line:84% No more scientific studies to be done, which was just 00:26:08.160 --> 00:26:11.000 align:middle line:84% kind of giving the finger to the state of Kansas 00:26:11.000 --> 00:26:14.080 align:middle line:84% and probably not the right thing to do. 00:26:14.080 --> 00:26:19.120 align:middle line:84% So not only did this seriously offend the scientific community, 00:26:19.120 --> 00:26:22.220 align:middle line:84% they began to write letters to political officials. 00:26:22.220 --> 00:26:26.160 align:middle line:84% So one of those officials was the governor of Kansas 00:26:26.160 --> 00:26:32.160 align:middle line:84% and another official was the representatives for Kansas 00:26:32.160 --> 00:26:34.640 align:middle line:90% in the US Congress. 00:26:34.640 --> 00:26:38.720 align:middle line:84% So in an effort to do damage controls, 00:26:38.720 --> 00:26:42.200 align:middle line:84% the AEC went back to the National Academies 00:26:42.200 --> 00:26:49.680 align:middle line:84% and they said, will you please review our project plan 00:26:49.680 --> 00:26:53.048 align:middle line:90% and tell us that this is fine? 00:26:53.048 --> 00:26:54.840 align:middle line:84% The National Academies reviewed the project 00:26:54.840 --> 00:26:56.640 align:middle line:84% and they said, well, while your plan 00:26:56.640 --> 00:26:59.640 align:middle line:84% is likely safe, there are nevertheless 00:26:59.640 --> 00:27:02.920 align:middle line:84% a few outstanding questions that need to be answered, 00:27:02.920 --> 00:27:05.720 align:middle line:84% which is exactly the kind of scientific answer 00:27:05.720 --> 00:27:09.360 align:middle line:84% that political people find maddening. 00:27:09.360 --> 00:27:13.160 align:middle line:84% It's like, yes, there's always more to be known. 00:27:13.160 --> 00:27:15.020 align:middle line:84% So the AEC went around saying, look, 00:27:15.020 --> 00:27:18.450 align:middle line:84% this National Academies report largely favors our project. 00:27:18.450 --> 00:27:20.150 align:middle line:90% We should move forward. 00:27:20.150 --> 00:27:23.490 align:middle line:84% And the people in the State of Kansas said, look, 00:27:23.490 --> 00:27:24.870 align:middle line:90% there are outstanding questions. 00:27:24.870 --> 00:27:28.550 align:middle line:84% And no one could agree on anything. 00:27:28.550 --> 00:27:32.790 align:middle line:84% So all of this began to rub the Congressional representatives 00:27:32.790 --> 00:27:33.750 align:middle line:90% the wrong way. 00:27:33.750 --> 00:27:38.350 align:middle line:84% And in a letter to the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, 00:27:38.350 --> 00:27:45.090 align:middle line:84% one of them wrote, quote, "This AEC campaign is a quote, 00:27:45.090 --> 00:27:48.830 align:middle line:84% 'big daddy knows best campaign' that is at best disingenuous." 00:27:48.830 --> 00:27:52.530 align:middle line:84% He later advised the AEC that the citizens of Kansas are not, 00:27:52.530 --> 00:27:55.300 align:middle line:90% quote, "all country bumpkins." 00:27:55.300 --> 00:27:57.050 align:middle line:84% And then later in a congressional hearing, 00:27:57.050 --> 00:28:00.790 align:middle line:84% he declared that the AEC had not demonstrated that the site would 00:28:00.790 --> 00:28:05.350 align:middle line:84% be safe and suggested that they are talking about people's lives 00:28:05.350 --> 00:28:08.150 align:middle line:90% and the AEC is playing God-- 00:28:08.150 --> 00:28:13.710 align:middle line:84% not exactly the right political tenor. 00:28:13.710 --> 00:28:16.550 align:middle line:90% So the AEC had overstepped. 00:28:16.550 --> 00:28:18.430 align:middle line:90% Congress had gotten involved. 00:28:18.430 --> 00:28:21.670 align:middle line:84% It pulled most of the funding for the project. 00:28:21.670 --> 00:28:25.070 align:middle line:84% And then an oversight committee was created, which 00:28:25.070 --> 00:28:27.750 align:middle line:90% would search for compromises. 00:28:27.750 --> 00:28:33.910 align:middle line:84% And that committee decided that whatever was done, 00:28:33.910 --> 00:28:36.930 align:middle line:84% the site should not open unless the fuel were, quote, 00:28:36.930 --> 00:28:39.190 align:middle line:90% "fully retrievable." 00:28:39.190 --> 00:28:44.912 align:middle line:84% So this idea was that maybe we need to move forward, 00:28:44.912 --> 00:28:46.870 align:middle line:84% but if something goes wrong, we can always just 00:28:46.870 --> 00:28:50.790 align:middle line:84% pull the fuel out and deal with it later. 00:28:50.790 --> 00:28:54.590 align:middle line:90% And that sounds great. 00:28:54.590 --> 00:28:57.790 align:middle line:84% And for a moment, it gave us a political compromise 00:28:57.790 --> 00:28:59.670 align:middle line:90% that was actually operational. 00:28:59.670 --> 00:29:05.190 align:middle line:84% But it turns out that that was a really bad thing. 00:29:05.190 --> 00:29:07.630 align:middle line:84% And I'll explain why in a little bit. 00:29:07.630 --> 00:29:11.270 align:middle line:90% So that was the plan-- 00:29:11.270 --> 00:29:15.340 align:middle line:84% open the repository, but it was going to be retrievable. 00:29:15.340 --> 00:29:17.660 align:middle line:84% And then the American Salt Corporation 00:29:17.660 --> 00:29:20.820 align:middle line:84% of Kansas City, which had owned the mine before the AEC bought 00:29:20.820 --> 00:29:24.180 align:middle line:84% it, released some technical information 00:29:24.180 --> 00:29:26.300 align:middle line:84% about previous exploratory drilling 00:29:26.300 --> 00:29:28.940 align:middle line:90% that they had done in the area. 00:29:28.940 --> 00:29:31.380 align:middle line:84% And the information said that when 00:29:31.380 --> 00:29:33.700 align:middle line:84% they had drilled into the salt, they 00:29:33.700 --> 00:29:39.420 align:middle line:84% discovered flowing water flowing in the salt. 00:29:39.420 --> 00:29:41.680 align:middle line:84% And they didn't know where it was coming from, 00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:43.980 align:middle line:90% but they ran into it. 00:29:43.980 --> 00:29:49.740 align:middle line:84% And secondly, that they had attempted to do solution mining. 00:29:49.740 --> 00:29:52.300 align:middle line:84% Do you guys know what solution mining is? 00:29:52.300 --> 00:29:54.500 align:middle line:84% So this is actually a principal source of mining 00:29:54.500 --> 00:29:58.140 align:middle line:84% that is done for uranium extraction now. 00:29:58.140 --> 00:30:02.820 align:middle line:84% The idea is you could drill a big hole 00:30:02.820 --> 00:30:07.860 align:middle line:84% and make a bunch of tunnels to carve rock out, 00:30:07.860 --> 00:30:13.140 align:middle line:84% very expensive, remove all this rock to get to your uranium ore 00:30:13.140 --> 00:30:14.940 align:middle line:90% somewhere. 00:30:14.940 --> 00:30:20.540 align:middle line:84% Or you could just drill a hole, pump some water or some acid 00:30:20.540 --> 00:30:25.260 align:middle line:84% down the hole, and then dissolve the uranium or dissolve the salt 00:30:25.260 --> 00:30:26.620 align:middle line:90% and pump it back up. 00:30:26.620 --> 00:30:29.380 align:middle line:90% And that's much cheaper. 00:30:29.380 --> 00:30:33.380 align:middle line:84% So this is called in-situ leach mining or solution mining. 00:30:33.380 --> 00:30:35.900 align:middle line:84% And so they wanted to do solution mining of salt 00:30:35.900 --> 00:30:38.020 align:middle line:84% with water because it was cheaper. 00:30:38.020 --> 00:30:41.160 align:middle line:84% And they drilled the hole and they pumped the water down. 00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:44.060 align:middle line:84% And they went to pump the water back out and it was gone. 00:30:44.060 --> 00:30:48.980 align:middle line:84% So that suggested that there were some kind of fissures that 00:30:48.980 --> 00:30:51.460 align:middle line:84% connected the salt hole that they 00:30:51.460 --> 00:30:56.580 align:middle line:84% had drilled to some other place, maybe an aquifer. 00:30:56.580 --> 00:30:57.080 align:middle line:90% Who knows? 00:30:57.080 --> 00:31:01.180 align:middle line:84% But it wasn't the idea of a natural tank in the way 00:31:01.180 --> 00:31:03.660 align:middle line:84% that everyone thought about salt. 00:31:03.660 --> 00:31:07.240 align:middle line:84% So all that was true, that salt does anneal and does self-seal, 00:31:07.240 --> 00:31:09.340 align:middle line:90% it is also not perfectly true. 00:31:09.340 --> 00:31:12.090 align:middle line:84% There are still other things that happen. 00:31:12.090 --> 00:31:17.890 align:middle line:84% And so given this information, they 00:31:17.890 --> 00:31:23.410 align:middle line:84% realized that it was more uncertainty than they thought 00:31:23.410 --> 00:31:25.330 align:middle line:84% and that they couldn't move forward. 00:31:25.330 --> 00:31:28.650 align:middle line:84% So in 1972, the Atomic Energy Commission just gave up. 00:31:28.650 --> 00:31:29.910 align:middle line:90% They closed the project. 00:31:29.910 --> 00:31:31.910 align:middle line:84% They announced they would abandon salt and shift 00:31:31.910 --> 00:31:34.810 align:middle line:84% their focus to vitrification and glass stored 00:31:34.810 --> 00:31:36.610 align:middle line:90% in a concrete bunker. 00:31:36.610 --> 00:31:40.850 align:middle line:84% And that was the plan, but that was hardly the end of it, 00:31:40.850 --> 00:31:44.770 align:middle line:84% because they had woken the sleeping giant of the US 00:31:44.770 --> 00:31:46.210 align:middle line:90% Congress. 00:31:46.210 --> 00:31:50.770 align:middle line:84% And so Congress started to have debates about nuclear waste, 00:31:50.770 --> 00:31:54.070 align:middle line:90% and they started to propose-- 00:31:54.070 --> 00:31:56.770 align:middle line:84% where would this waste repository be? 00:31:56.770 --> 00:31:59.170 align:middle line:90% What would be the requirements? 00:31:59.170 --> 00:32:02.330 align:middle line:84% So retrievability became a minimum criterion 00:32:02.330 --> 00:32:04.410 align:middle line:90% for any repository. 00:32:04.410 --> 00:32:06.210 align:middle line:84% A second criterion that they implemented 00:32:06.210 --> 00:32:11.210 align:middle line:84% was that there should be deference to state governments, 00:32:11.210 --> 00:32:12.610 align:middle line:90% to state officials. 00:32:12.610 --> 00:32:16.890 align:middle line:84% So no more federal government Atomic Energy Committee riding 00:32:16.890 --> 00:32:20.890 align:middle line:84% roughshod over the state like they had done in Kansas. 00:32:20.890 --> 00:32:26.770 align:middle line:84% Now, you had to get approval and licensing from the state. 00:32:26.770 --> 00:32:30.710 align:middle line:84% The state could require permits for transporting the fuel 00:32:30.710 --> 00:32:32.050 align:middle line:90% and so on and so forth. 00:32:32.050 --> 00:32:35.290 align:middle line:84% So state governments would have a voice. 00:32:35.290 --> 00:32:38.650 align:middle line:84% But most of all, it basically converted the idea 00:32:38.650 --> 00:32:40.810 align:middle line:84% of a repository of something that 00:32:40.810 --> 00:32:43.530 align:middle line:84% might be good, it might give you some jobs, 00:32:43.530 --> 00:32:46.010 align:middle line:84% to something that no one really wanted. 00:32:46.010 --> 00:32:48.670 align:middle line:84% And that was the biggest problem. 00:32:48.670 --> 00:32:52.610 align:middle line:84% Everyone realized that something fishy was going on 00:32:52.610 --> 00:32:55.010 align:middle line:84% and decided that they weren't going 00:32:55.010 --> 00:32:57.490 align:middle line:90% to let the AEC do this to them. 00:32:57.490 --> 00:33:03.890 align:middle line:84% So congressional opposition became very strong here. 00:33:03.890 --> 00:33:05.310 align:middle line:90% And let me just be clear. 00:33:05.310 --> 00:33:08.010 align:middle line:90% This is not public opposition. 00:33:08.010 --> 00:33:12.690 align:middle line:84% This is not people saying, oh, I don't want radiation around. 00:33:12.690 --> 00:33:20.970 align:middle line:84% This is congressional opposition to a federal entity essentially 00:33:20.970 --> 00:33:25.090 align:middle line:84% having political power when they want to have political power. 00:33:25.090 --> 00:33:27.250 align:middle line:84% That's really what's going on here. 00:33:27.250 --> 00:33:32.930 align:middle line:84% So over the next 10 years, 115 pieces of legislation 00:33:32.930 --> 00:33:35.490 align:middle line:84% were put forward in Congress to figure out 00:33:35.490 --> 00:33:37.770 align:middle line:84% how to deal with the nuclear waste problem. 00:33:37.770 --> 00:33:40.250 align:middle line:90% And every one of them failed. 00:33:40.250 --> 00:33:42.610 align:middle line:84% No one could agree on what to do. 00:33:42.610 --> 00:33:46.810 align:middle line:84% Finally, in 1982, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act 00:33:46.810 --> 00:33:50.650 align:middle line:84% became the first act to be passed by Congress 00:33:50.650 --> 00:33:54.370 align:middle line:90% to outline a solution. 00:33:54.370 --> 00:33:58.530 align:middle line:84% Now, by 1982, you may know the Atomic Energy Commission 00:33:58.530 --> 00:33:59.690 align:middle line:90% ceased to exist. 00:33:59.690 --> 00:34:01.930 align:middle line:84% It became the Department of Energy and the Nuclear 00:34:01.930 --> 00:34:03.730 align:middle line:90% Regulatory Commission. 00:34:03.730 --> 00:34:08.400 align:middle line:84% And so this all now fell to maybe two Nuclear Waste Policy 00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:09.560 align:middle line:90% Acts. 00:34:09.560 --> 00:34:12.760 align:middle line:84% DOE is to provide underground repository storage 00:34:12.760 --> 00:34:15.000 align:middle line:90% for used civilian nuclear fuel. 00:34:15.000 --> 00:34:17.199 align:middle line:84% In other words, the federal government 00:34:17.199 --> 00:34:21.600 align:middle line:84% will solve the waste problem for the private industry, which 00:34:21.600 --> 00:34:24.840 align:middle line:90% is a remarkable statement. 00:34:24.840 --> 00:34:27.040 align:middle line:84% Back when all this started, we were just 00:34:27.040 --> 00:34:30.600 align:middle line:84% trying to deal with government waste from the weapons program. 00:34:30.600 --> 00:34:33.159 align:middle line:84% And now, as a result of this, they 00:34:33.159 --> 00:34:36.320 align:middle line:84% decided-- we don't want private companies solving 00:34:36.320 --> 00:34:40.159 align:middle line:84% their own waste problems, the federal government will just 00:34:40.159 --> 00:34:44.159 align:middle line:84% do it themselves, which was a great boon 00:34:44.159 --> 00:34:46.520 align:middle line:90% to the nuclear industry. 00:34:46.520 --> 00:34:50.880 align:middle line:84% This meant that they just had to worry about making the power. 00:34:50.880 --> 00:34:53.679 align:middle line:84% They didn't have to deal with all the politics. 00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:58.760 align:middle line:84% And without this, it would have been potentially much more 00:34:58.760 --> 00:35:00.240 align:middle line:90% problematic. 00:35:00.240 --> 00:35:04.965 align:middle line:84% They said it should be retrievable for 100 years-- 00:35:04.965 --> 00:35:06.840 align:middle line:84% actually, I think it originally says 50 years 00:35:06.840 --> 00:35:08.548 align:middle line:84% and extendable to 100 years, but everyone 00:35:08.548 --> 00:35:11.200 align:middle line:84% treats it as 100 years-- but otherwise capable 00:35:11.200 --> 00:35:13.520 align:middle line:90% of being permanent. 00:35:13.520 --> 00:35:15.320 align:middle line:84% This was an attempt to tamp down on 00:35:15.320 --> 00:35:17.300 align:middle line:90% the retrievability requirement. 00:35:17.300 --> 00:35:19.300 align:middle line:84% The problem with the retrievability requirement, 00:35:19.300 --> 00:35:20.967 align:middle line:84% in case it wasn't obvious, is that meant 00:35:20.967 --> 00:35:24.680 align:middle line:84% you have to keep the base repository open indefinitely. 00:35:24.680 --> 00:35:27.900 align:middle line:84% There has to be maintenance of the tunnels. 00:35:27.900 --> 00:35:29.620 align:middle line:84% There has to be ventilation systems. 00:35:29.620 --> 00:35:35.300 align:middle line:84% There has to be mechanisms that get the fuel bundles in and out. 00:35:35.300 --> 00:35:36.760 align:middle line:84% They have to operate and you have 00:35:36.760 --> 00:35:38.960 align:middle line:84% to have a staff to maintain all of this stuff. 00:35:38.960 --> 00:35:41.840 align:middle line:84% And you can't have that indefinitely 00:35:41.840 --> 00:35:44.680 align:middle line:84% and close up the tunnel and protect the waste. 00:35:44.680 --> 00:35:47.600 align:middle line:90% These things are contradictory. 00:35:47.600 --> 00:35:52.173 align:middle line:84% So some people just didn't like the idea 00:35:52.173 --> 00:35:53.340 align:middle line:90% that it would be left there. 00:35:53.340 --> 00:35:55.540 align:middle line:84% And other people said, it's not going to work. 00:35:55.540 --> 00:35:57.040 align:middle line:90% So this is the compromise-- 00:35:57.040 --> 00:35:59.320 align:middle line:90% 100 years retrievability. 00:35:59.320 --> 00:36:04.950 align:middle line:84% Then the law set a size limit that the first repository must 00:36:04.950 --> 00:36:09.537 align:middle line:84% not be big enough to hold the existing civilian waste. 00:36:09.537 --> 00:36:11.870 align:middle line:84% In other words, we'd have to solve this problem at least 00:36:11.870 --> 00:36:13.990 align:middle line:90% twice. 00:36:13.990 --> 00:36:15.630 align:middle line:84% They could expand the first repository 00:36:15.630 --> 00:36:17.250 align:middle line:84% after a second repository opened, 00:36:17.250 --> 00:36:20.950 align:middle line:84% but they could not expand it until the second repository was 00:36:20.950 --> 00:36:21.750 align:middle line:90% open. 00:36:21.750 --> 00:36:23.170 align:middle line:90% So what is really going on here? 00:36:23.170 --> 00:36:28.110 align:middle line:84% Well, this is the giveaway that this is about politics. 00:36:28.110 --> 00:36:29.950 align:middle line:84% No one wanted to be the chump who 00:36:29.950 --> 00:36:34.270 align:middle line:84% got stuck with the nuclear waste dump in their state. 00:36:34.270 --> 00:36:37.190 align:middle line:84% So this was going to make sure that at least another person 00:36:37.190 --> 00:36:40.870 align:middle line:84% in Congress was also going to be the chump also-- 00:36:40.870 --> 00:36:44.110 align:middle line:90% very political situation. 00:36:44.110 --> 00:36:47.470 align:middle line:84% And the DOE was to characterize three sites 00:36:47.470 --> 00:36:49.530 align:middle line:90% and recommend them to Congress. 00:36:49.530 --> 00:36:52.390 align:middle line:84% But Congress would choose the site, not 00:36:52.390 --> 00:36:54.790 align:middle line:84% the Department of Energy, because that's 00:36:54.790 --> 00:36:59.070 align:middle line:84% where all the scientific experts are in the Congress. 00:36:59.070 --> 00:37:03.070 align:middle line:84% And also, they decided to pay for the first bullet 00:37:03.070 --> 00:37:08.390 align:middle line:84% by implementing a tax of 1/10 of $0.01 per kilowatt hour 00:37:08.390 --> 00:37:10.670 align:middle line:90% on nuclear power. 00:37:10.670 --> 00:37:14.870 align:middle line:84% And that creates what's called the Nuclear Waste Fund. 00:37:14.870 --> 00:37:19.230 align:middle line:90% So what did this do? 00:37:19.230 --> 00:37:23.270 align:middle line:84% This essentially creates a contract. 00:37:23.270 --> 00:37:30.870 align:middle line:84% The DOE promises to take the waste and the private companies 00:37:30.870 --> 00:37:32.470 align:middle line:90% pay a tax. 00:37:32.470 --> 00:37:36.550 align:middle line:84% So there's consideration, so it establishes a contract. 00:37:36.550 --> 00:37:39.590 align:middle line:84% And then it turns out it will matter. 00:37:39.590 --> 00:37:42.510 align:middle line:84% In a little bit, I'll explain why. 00:37:42.510 --> 00:37:48.870 align:middle line:84% So DOE started by selecting 12 sites for technical evaluation. 00:37:48.870 --> 00:37:51.590 align:middle line:84% By 1986, they settled on their top 00:37:51.590 --> 00:37:54.510 align:middle line:84% three that they were going to recommend, and these are them. 00:37:54.510 --> 00:37:58.540 align:middle line:84% In Deaf Smith County, Texas, they chose a salt bed. 00:37:58.540 --> 00:37:59.940 align:middle line:90% Salt was still seen as good. 00:37:59.940 --> 00:38:01.860 align:middle line:84% Despite some of the issues that they 00:38:01.860 --> 00:38:04.660 align:middle line:84% discovered in Lyons, Kansas, salt was still 00:38:04.660 --> 00:38:08.300 align:middle line:90% basically good geology. 00:38:08.300 --> 00:38:13.300 align:middle line:84% But it turns out that Texas is also 00:38:13.300 --> 00:38:17.740 align:middle line:84% the home to the Pantex Plant, the nation's nuclear weapons 00:38:17.740 --> 00:38:20.700 align:middle line:84% assembly facility, and had sent billions of dollars 00:38:20.700 --> 00:38:22.700 align:middle line:90% into the Texas economy. 00:38:22.700 --> 00:38:25.020 align:middle line:84% So they were probably sympathetic to the Department 00:38:25.020 --> 00:38:27.980 align:middle line:84% of Energy interest here and getting 00:38:27.980 --> 00:38:30.060 align:middle line:90% a solution to this problem. 00:38:30.060 --> 00:38:32.600 align:middle line:84% The second choice was the crystalline basalt. 00:38:32.600 --> 00:38:34.480 align:middle line:90% This is a very, very hard rock. 00:38:34.480 --> 00:38:38.060 align:middle line:84% It's like the bedrock of the planet underneath the sea floor 00:38:38.060 --> 00:38:43.620 align:middle line:84% that they had a formation in Hanford, Washington-- 00:38:43.620 --> 00:38:45.100 align:middle line:90% very good geology. 00:38:45.100 --> 00:38:46.500 align:middle line:90% Also, guess what? 00:38:46.500 --> 00:38:49.860 align:middle line:84% Washington is the state that made the plutonium 00:38:49.860 --> 00:38:51.538 align:middle line:90% for nuclear weapons program. 00:38:51.538 --> 00:38:53.580 align:middle line:84% The Department of Energy sent billions of dollars 00:38:53.580 --> 00:38:55.005 align:middle line:90% to the State of Washington. 00:38:55.005 --> 00:38:56.380 align:middle line:84% Perhaps they would be politically 00:38:56.380 --> 00:39:00.460 align:middle line:84% sympathetic to the Department of Energy's case here. 00:39:00.460 --> 00:39:04.440 align:middle line:84% And the last one was lithified volcanic ash, 00:39:04.440 --> 00:39:10.078 align:middle line:84% which is called tuff, at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. 00:39:10.078 --> 00:39:12.620 align:middle line:84% And of course, Nevada is the home to the nuclear weapons test 00:39:12.620 --> 00:39:12.880 align:middle line:90% site. 00:39:12.880 --> 00:39:14.060 align:middle line:84% And the Department of Energy has spent 00:39:14.060 --> 00:39:15.568 align:middle line:90% billions of dollars in Nevada. 00:39:15.568 --> 00:39:17.860 align:middle line:84% And perhaps they would be sympathetic to the Department 00:39:17.860 --> 00:39:19.020 align:middle line:90% of Energy's plight. 00:39:19.020 --> 00:39:21.620 align:middle line:84% So you can see why these sites were chosen. 00:39:21.620 --> 00:39:24.660 align:middle line:84% Two of the three sites have good geology. 00:39:24.660 --> 00:39:26.720 align:middle line:84% All three sites have good politics. 00:39:26.720 --> 00:39:29.900 align:middle line:84% You would hope that given the relationship 00:39:29.900 --> 00:39:33.180 align:middle line:84% between the Department of Energy and these governments, 00:39:33.180 --> 00:39:35.340 align:middle line:90% that they would be sympathetic. 00:39:35.340 --> 00:39:38.860 align:middle line:84% Well, DOE was not immune to playing politics. 00:39:38.860 --> 00:39:41.820 align:middle line:84% But after learning about the Department of Energy's three 00:39:41.820 --> 00:39:46.300 align:middle line:84% choices in 1986, the congressmen in these states weren't-- 00:39:46.300 --> 00:39:47.000 align:middle line:90% question? 00:39:47.000 --> 00:39:47.800 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yes. 00:39:47.800 --> 00:39:52.145 align:middle line:84% Both basalt and tuff are indicators of volcanic activity. 00:39:52.145 --> 00:39:53.020 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Right. 00:39:53.020 --> 00:39:56.490 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Isn't it contradictory to what you said earlier, 00:39:56.490 --> 00:39:58.085 align:middle line:90% to avoid volcanic area? 00:39:58.085 --> 00:39:59.710 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Very astute observation. 00:39:59.710 --> 00:40:01.070 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:40:01.070 --> 00:40:01.570 align:middle line:90% Yes. 00:40:01.570 --> 00:40:05.010 align:middle line:90% 00:40:05.010 --> 00:40:10.130 align:middle line:84% So the congressmen in these states 00:40:10.130 --> 00:40:14.210 align:middle line:84% were not very happy to see their states on the list. 00:40:14.210 --> 00:40:17.050 align:middle line:84% They didn't want to be the sucker that 00:40:17.050 --> 00:40:18.530 align:middle line:90% got stuck with the thing. 00:40:18.530 --> 00:40:20.890 align:middle line:84% So what was the political situation 00:40:20.890 --> 00:40:24.410 align:middle line:90% in Congress at the time? 00:40:24.410 --> 00:40:28.870 align:middle line:84% So two of these states, Washington and Texas, 00:40:28.870 --> 00:40:30.730 align:middle line:90% had very powerful delegations. 00:40:30.730 --> 00:40:35.210 align:middle line:84% The Speaker and House Majority Leader were both from Texas, 00:40:35.210 --> 00:40:39.410 align:middle line:84% and his state had 32 votes in the House. 00:40:39.410 --> 00:40:45.930 align:middle line:84% And the whip was from the state of Washington, 00:40:45.930 --> 00:40:50.370 align:middle line:84% and his state had 12 votes in the House. 00:40:50.370 --> 00:40:54.730 align:middle line:84% And Nevada had no one of particular note in Congress 00:40:54.730 --> 00:40:57.690 align:middle line:90% and only two votes in the House. 00:40:57.690 --> 00:41:01.650 align:middle line:84% So quite literally in a back room 00:41:01.650 --> 00:41:06.170 align:middle line:84% late at night, quite literally, this delegation from Washington 00:41:06.170 --> 00:41:08.370 align:middle line:84% and the delegation from Texas got together 00:41:08.370 --> 00:41:11.410 align:middle line:84% and wrote an amendment to the 1982 00:41:11.410 --> 00:41:17.990 align:middle line:84% Waste Policy Act, which amends the bill that says, well, yes, 00:41:17.990 --> 00:41:22.050 align:middle line:84% DOE is going to select these three sites, 00:41:22.050 --> 00:41:24.350 align:middle line:84% but DOE is prohibited now, by law, 00:41:24.350 --> 00:41:30.490 align:middle line:84% from evaluating any site other than Yucca Mountain in Nevada. 00:41:30.490 --> 00:41:34.510 align:middle line:84% This amendment is famously called the "Screw Nevada Bill." 00:41:34.510 --> 00:41:35.930 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:41:35.930 --> 00:41:38.790 align:middle line:90% And that's the law. 00:41:38.790 --> 00:41:41.010 align:middle line:84% And that Amendment to the law has neither 00:41:41.010 --> 00:41:44.690 align:middle line:84% been surpassed nor repealed and is still the law today. 00:41:44.690 --> 00:41:46.210 align:middle line:84% By law, there's only one place where 00:41:46.210 --> 00:41:49.210 align:middle line:84% you can put the nuclear waste in the United States 00:41:49.210 --> 00:41:53.920 align:middle line:84% for civilian fuel, and this is where it is. 00:41:53.920 --> 00:41:57.840 align:middle line:84% So this is a problem that we still are dealing with. 00:41:57.840 --> 00:42:00.620 align:middle line:84% So Department of Energy went to Yucca Mountain. 00:42:00.620 --> 00:42:01.880 align:middle line:90% There it is. 00:42:01.880 --> 00:42:05.680 align:middle line:90% It's compressed volcanic ash. 00:42:05.680 --> 00:42:09.960 align:middle line:84% And they discovered that compressed volcanic ash really 00:42:09.960 --> 00:42:13.320 align:middle line:84% does not meet the EPA requirements. 00:42:13.320 --> 00:42:15.640 align:middle line:84% It is not a great barrier against the transport 00:42:15.640 --> 00:42:17.280 align:middle line:90% of radioisotopes. 00:42:17.280 --> 00:42:21.280 align:middle line:84% So for example, in 1986, they measured groundwater 00:42:21.280 --> 00:42:25.360 align:middle line:84% and they found Chlorine-36 isotopes, which they believe 00:42:25.360 --> 00:42:27.560 align:middle line:84% are generated in the atmosphere from earlier 00:42:27.560 --> 00:42:28.940 align:middle line:90% atmospheric testing. 00:42:28.940 --> 00:42:32.760 align:middle line:84% And that indicates very rapid transit of rainwater 00:42:32.760 --> 00:42:36.840 align:middle line:84% into the groundwater there over the timescale of just a few 00:42:36.840 --> 00:42:39.920 align:middle line:90% years, maybe a few decades. 00:42:39.920 --> 00:42:42.660 align:middle line:84% That meant it was very oxidizing environment 00:42:42.660 --> 00:42:46.760 align:middle line:84% and it meant that there was a lot of water flow going 00:42:46.760 --> 00:42:48.440 align:middle line:90% through the mountain. 00:42:48.440 --> 00:42:49.400 align:middle line:90% Not great. 00:42:49.400 --> 00:42:54.160 align:middle line:84% Didn't meet the 100,000-year guideline. 00:42:54.160 --> 00:42:57.080 align:middle line:84% It didn't meet DOE's own 1,000-year guideline. 00:42:57.080 --> 00:43:01.360 align:middle line:84% But DOE, by law, could not now choose any other site. 00:43:01.360 --> 00:43:03.480 align:middle line:90% So what did they do? 00:43:03.480 --> 00:43:06.960 align:middle line:84% They deleted the guideline and moved forward 00:43:06.960 --> 00:43:09.240 align:middle line:84% because there's nothing else that they could do. 00:43:09.240 --> 00:43:11.680 align:middle line:84% They just said, oh, well, it doesn't meet this one. 00:43:11.680 --> 00:43:13.400 align:middle line:90% Let's just remove it. 00:43:13.400 --> 00:43:19.737 align:middle line:84% And they then learned that Yucca Mountain was an earthquake zone. 00:43:19.737 --> 00:43:21.320 align:middle line:84% It's one of the most active earthquake 00:43:21.320 --> 00:43:23.200 align:middle line:90% zones in the United States. 00:43:23.200 --> 00:43:28.200 align:middle line:84% It has had over 600 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 00:43:28.200 --> 00:43:32.440 align:middle line:84% and above within 50 miles between 1975 and the year 2000. 00:43:32.440 --> 00:43:38.840 align:middle line:84% So within that 25 years, they've had 600 earthquakes. 00:43:38.840 --> 00:43:42.100 align:middle line:84% 5.6 magnitude-- I'm from California, 00:43:42.100 --> 00:43:44.880 align:middle line:84% so I know what 5.6 magnitude means intuitively. 00:43:44.880 --> 00:43:48.100 align:middle line:84% If you're not from California, you may not know what it means. 00:43:48.100 --> 00:43:51.400 align:middle line:90% But 5.6 is a decent earthquake. 00:43:51.400 --> 00:43:53.800 align:middle line:84% 5.6 magnitude earthquake in 1992-- 00:43:53.800 --> 00:43:56.800 align:middle line:84% 1992 did tens of thousands of damage to their field office 00:43:56.800 --> 00:44:00.520 align:middle line:84% where they were running their scientific experiments. 00:44:00.520 --> 00:44:04.060 align:middle line:84% In 1999, they had an earthquake that derailed the train. 00:44:04.060 --> 00:44:05.920 align:middle line:84% It was likely the same train that 00:44:05.920 --> 00:44:09.880 align:middle line:84% would actually be bringing the spent fuel to the mountain-- 00:44:09.880 --> 00:44:13.160 align:middle line:90% problem after problem. 00:44:13.160 --> 00:44:16.480 align:middle line:84% In 2002, they had a 4.3 magnitude earthquake 00:44:16.480 --> 00:44:18.250 align:middle line:84% in which the Department of Energy 00:44:18.250 --> 00:44:20.500 align:middle line:84% released a press release that said everything is fine, 00:44:20.500 --> 00:44:21.340 align:middle line:90% nothing was damaged. 00:44:21.340 --> 00:44:24.680 align:middle line:84% And then later it came out that they had released the press 00:44:24.680 --> 00:44:29.605 align:middle line:84% release before even checking to see if anything had got damaged. 00:44:29.605 --> 00:44:30.980 align:middle line:84% You can see what the problem was. 00:44:30.980 --> 00:44:33.840 align:middle line:84% They were so desperate to make this site work that they started 00:44:33.840 --> 00:44:36.520 align:middle line:90% to lie and deceive the public. 00:44:36.520 --> 00:44:40.020 align:middle line:84% And that, of course, created a problem, 00:44:40.020 --> 00:44:41.960 align:middle line:84% just like it did in Lyons, Kansas. 00:44:41.960 --> 00:44:49.470 align:middle line:84% And the state of Nevada was not happy with all of this. 00:44:49.470 --> 00:44:56.390 align:middle line:84% So in their infinite wisdom, the congressional staff, 00:44:56.390 --> 00:44:59.630 align:middle line:84% the congressional delegation selected a site 00:44:59.630 --> 00:45:01.350 align:middle line:84% in the middle of the desert, which 00:45:01.350 --> 00:45:03.530 align:middle line:84% may protect against marauding invaders, 00:45:03.530 --> 00:45:05.950 align:middle line:84% but does very little to protect us 00:45:05.950 --> 00:45:07.870 align:middle line:84% from corrosion and all the things 00:45:07.870 --> 00:45:10.470 align:middle line:84% that we really have to worry about. 00:45:10.470 --> 00:45:13.630 align:middle line:84% There was a presentation to the presidentially appointed 00:45:13.630 --> 00:45:19.110 align:middle line:84% nuclear waste technical review board that said the following-- 00:45:19.110 --> 00:45:26.470 align:middle line:84% the mountain will provide 0.008% of the protection, 00:45:26.470 --> 00:45:29.410 align:middle line:84% and the other balance of the protection, 00:45:29.410 --> 00:45:34.190 align:middle line:84% 99-point-some-odd percent would come from engineered structures 00:45:34.190 --> 00:45:36.390 align:middle line:84% that we would build inside the mountain. 00:45:36.390 --> 00:45:39.150 align:middle line:84% In other words, we could just skip the mountain. 00:45:39.150 --> 00:45:41.150 align:middle line:90% It's a very expensive shed. 00:45:41.150 --> 00:45:47.630 align:middle line:84% But by law, this is where the nuclear waste has to go. 00:45:47.630 --> 00:45:50.990 align:middle line:84% Meanwhile, in the City of Las Vegas, 00:45:50.990 --> 00:45:55.750 align:middle line:84% which in 1982 was a backwater full of drunks and gamblers, 00:45:55.750 --> 00:46:00.150 align:middle line:84% grew up in the '90s and 2000s to be one of the fastest growing 00:46:00.150 --> 00:46:04.030 align:middle line:84% cities in the United States with a giant economy. 00:46:04.030 --> 00:46:10.550 align:middle line:84% And the Nevada delegation, which was two powerless people, 00:46:10.550 --> 00:46:14.590 align:middle line:84% turned out to have Harry Reid, who-- 00:46:14.590 --> 00:46:18.510 align:middle line:84% I'm blanking on his position at the moment-- 00:46:18.510 --> 00:46:21.510 align:middle line:90% became Senate Majority Leader. 00:46:21.510 --> 00:46:24.390 align:middle line:84% So he became enormously powerful figure 00:46:24.390 --> 00:46:27.790 align:middle line:84% and essentially spent his entire career 00:46:27.790 --> 00:46:30.910 align:middle line:84% making sure this place would never open and was 00:46:30.910 --> 00:46:33.190 align:middle line:90% very successful at doing that. 00:46:33.190 --> 00:46:36.990 align:middle line:84% Roughly half of the $20 billion that we collected 00:46:36.990 --> 00:46:44.820 align:middle line:84% from this $0.001 tax, we spent like $20 billion from that tax 00:46:44.820 --> 00:46:47.900 align:middle line:84% to fund research and development of this site. 00:46:47.900 --> 00:46:51.180 align:middle line:84% $12 billion of it was spent or basically 00:46:51.180 --> 00:46:54.500 align:middle line:84% wasted characterizing a mountain. 00:46:54.500 --> 00:46:59.600 align:middle line:84% And so President Obama said we need to fix this problem. 00:46:59.600 --> 00:47:02.020 align:middle line:84% You could imagine President Obama 00:47:02.020 --> 00:47:09.340 align:middle line:84% saying this, which established a nuclear waste Blue Ribbon 00:47:09.340 --> 00:47:11.620 align:middle line:90% Commission. 00:47:11.620 --> 00:47:12.720 align:middle line:90% That's my Obama. 00:47:12.720 --> 00:47:16.100 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:47:16.100 --> 00:47:19.080 align:middle line:84% The Commission, they went back to the basics. 00:47:19.080 --> 00:47:21.900 align:middle line:84% They said, let's look at all the options. 00:47:21.900 --> 00:47:24.060 align:middle line:84% They reaffirmed the conclusion that it should 00:47:24.060 --> 00:47:26.900 align:middle line:90% be a geologic repository. 00:47:26.900 --> 00:47:31.100 align:middle line:84% They added that it should be based on consent-based siting. 00:47:31.100 --> 00:47:33.420 align:middle line:84% We shouldn't just force one of these things 00:47:33.420 --> 00:47:36.300 align:middle line:84% down the throats of some community. 00:47:36.300 --> 00:47:38.540 align:middle line:84% We have to get people on board to do what 00:47:38.540 --> 00:47:40.560 align:middle line:90% we didn't do in Lyons, Kansas. 00:47:40.560 --> 00:47:43.460 align:middle line:90% 00:47:43.460 --> 00:47:46.600 align:middle line:90% And then we should move forward. 00:47:46.600 --> 00:47:48.758 align:middle line:90% That all sounds great, Mr Obama. 00:47:48.758 --> 00:47:50.300 align:middle line:84% But the problem is that the law still 00:47:50.300 --> 00:47:53.980 align:middle line:84% says that this is where the waste repository has to be. 00:47:53.980 --> 00:47:57.820 align:middle line:84% Until the law is changed, this is where it's going to be. 00:47:57.820 --> 00:48:01.620 align:middle line:84% Unfortunately, we also no longer have a functional Congress, 00:48:01.620 --> 00:48:04.760 align:middle line:84% and this is not high on their list of things to deal with. 00:48:04.760 --> 00:48:07.100 align:middle line:84% And so we're not dealing with it. 00:48:07.100 --> 00:48:11.600 align:middle line:84% And it's just decades of going by and nothing is happening. 00:48:11.600 --> 00:48:13.660 align:middle line:90% And this law is a problem. 00:48:13.660 --> 00:48:16.940 align:middle line:90% So we're kind in a stalemate. 00:48:16.940 --> 00:48:22.820 align:middle line:84% It's a stalemate that arose initially because of arrogance 00:48:22.820 --> 00:48:25.940 align:middle line:84% on the part of the nuclear engineers at the AEC, 00:48:25.940 --> 00:48:28.380 align:middle line:84% and converted an issue that could 00:48:28.380 --> 00:48:30.540 align:middle line:84% have been a scientific issue into basically 00:48:30.540 --> 00:48:34.920 align:middle line:84% a political football that, now, 70 years later, 00:48:34.920 --> 00:48:39.060 align:middle line:90% is still unresolved. 00:48:39.060 --> 00:48:42.370 align:middle line:84% It's worth noting that there is an operational nuclear waste 00:48:42.370 --> 00:48:45.730 align:middle line:84% repository in the United States called 00:48:45.730 --> 00:48:48.930 align:middle line:84% WIPP, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. 00:48:48.930 --> 00:48:51.730 align:middle line:90% This is not for civilian fuel. 00:48:51.730 --> 00:48:53.970 align:middle line:84% This is only for transuranic fuel 00:48:53.970 --> 00:48:57.290 align:middle line:84% that was created in the nuclear weapons program. 00:48:57.290 --> 00:49:00.730 align:middle line:84% It's 25 miles southeast of Carlsbad, New Mexico. 00:49:00.730 --> 00:49:03.530 align:middle line:90% It is a salt mine. 00:49:03.530 --> 00:49:06.630 align:middle line:84% And there is no high-level waste like spent fuel. 00:49:06.630 --> 00:49:10.770 align:middle line:90% It's all lower levels of waste. 00:49:10.770 --> 00:49:13.630 align:middle line:84% But this shows that if you do it right, 00:49:13.630 --> 00:49:16.370 align:middle line:90% you can get something done. 00:49:16.370 --> 00:49:19.890 align:middle line:84% So the issue is basically the politics 00:49:19.890 --> 00:49:22.330 align:middle line:84% around the storage of civilian fuel. 00:49:22.330 --> 00:49:25.270 align:middle line:84% Now, if this were high-level waste, 00:49:25.270 --> 00:49:28.850 align:middle line:84% we wouldn't have it in just plastic containers and people 00:49:28.850 --> 00:49:29.590 align:middle line:90% staring at it. 00:49:29.590 --> 00:49:33.210 align:middle line:84% But other engineering and studies 00:49:33.210 --> 00:49:35.210 align:middle line:84% would have to be done to see if you could really 00:49:35.210 --> 00:49:36.970 align:middle line:90% put high-level waste in there. 00:49:36.970 --> 00:49:42.230 align:middle line:84% But it's worth mentioning this thing does exist. 00:49:42.230 --> 00:49:45.610 align:middle line:84% It took about 20 years to get this thing going, 00:49:45.610 --> 00:49:52.890 align:middle line:84% from the initial authorization to the opening of the site. 00:49:52.890 --> 00:49:55.410 align:middle line:84% And a good chunk of that was dealing 00:49:55.410 --> 00:49:58.330 align:middle line:84% with the state of New Mexico and making 00:49:58.330 --> 00:50:03.250 align:middle line:84% sure that those approvals from the local communities and so on. 00:50:03.250 --> 00:50:08.010 align:middle line:84% So I mentioned that we were charging 00:50:08.010 --> 00:50:10.850 align:middle line:90% $0.001 per kilowatt hour. 00:50:10.850 --> 00:50:12.690 align:middle line:84% And in exchange, the federal government 00:50:12.690 --> 00:50:15.850 align:middle line:90% promised to deal with the waste. 00:50:15.850 --> 00:50:18.730 align:middle line:84% And I said that constitutes a contract. 00:50:18.730 --> 00:50:22.130 align:middle line:84% So now we have all this waste piling up 00:50:22.130 --> 00:50:25.890 align:middle line:84% at nuclear reactors and nowhere to put it. 00:50:25.890 --> 00:50:30.450 align:middle line:84% So the US government is in breach of contract. 00:50:30.450 --> 00:50:32.510 align:middle line:90% So what is happening? 00:50:32.510 --> 00:50:38.640 align:middle line:84% What is happening now is that if you have nuclear waste, 00:50:38.640 --> 00:50:42.100 align:middle line:90% you can do something with it. 00:50:42.100 --> 00:50:46.640 align:middle line:84% And then go sue the federal government for damages 00:50:46.640 --> 00:50:49.400 align:middle line:84% and recover your cost of managing your waste 00:50:49.400 --> 00:50:51.120 align:middle line:90% or breach of contract. 00:50:51.120 --> 00:50:53.320 align:middle line:84% And the courts will look at the lawsuit 00:50:53.320 --> 00:50:55.040 align:middle line:84% and say, yes, the federal government 00:50:55.040 --> 00:50:58.720 align:middle line:84% is in violation of its contractual agreement. 00:50:58.720 --> 00:51:01.600 align:middle line:84% Judgment in favor of the plaintiff. 00:51:01.600 --> 00:51:05.160 align:middle line:84% And this just happens automatically, basically. 00:51:05.160 --> 00:51:10.520 align:middle line:84% And the interesting thing is that the money that is paid out 00:51:10.520 --> 00:51:15.120 align:middle line:84% from these judgments comes from a very special thing called 00:51:15.120 --> 00:51:17.920 align:middle line:90% the Judiciary Fund. 00:51:17.920 --> 00:51:19.940 align:middle line:84% The Judiciary Fund is an interesting thing. 00:51:19.940 --> 00:51:25.480 align:middle line:84% It's a permanent, unlimited allocation of money. 00:51:25.480 --> 00:51:28.400 align:middle line:84% It ensures that the US government will always 00:51:28.400 --> 00:51:34.000 align:middle line:84% be able to pay any judgment made against it, which means that it 00:51:34.000 --> 00:51:37.120 align:middle line:84% isn't in any annual budget and no one 00:51:37.120 --> 00:51:40.320 align:middle line:84% has to put this budget up for review every year 00:51:40.320 --> 00:51:41.980 align:middle line:90% through the budgetary process. 00:51:41.980 --> 00:51:44.900 align:middle line:84% Congress never has to look at it. 00:51:44.900 --> 00:51:48.040 align:middle line:84% There's no pot of money that is running dry. 00:51:48.040 --> 00:51:50.517 align:middle line:84% The US Treasury just prints the money 00:51:50.517 --> 00:51:52.100 align:middle line:84% and they say, oh, you need more money? 00:51:52.100 --> 00:51:56.800 align:middle line:84% We can just make it out of thin air and we pay the money. 00:51:56.800 --> 00:52:00.840 align:middle line:84% And so this is now how waste is being managed. 00:52:00.840 --> 00:52:05.400 align:middle line:84% Private industry basically does what they want to do with it. 00:52:05.400 --> 00:52:07.280 align:middle line:84% They still have to get licenses and so on 00:52:07.280 --> 00:52:09.800 align:middle line:84% to comply with NRC safety protocols. 00:52:09.800 --> 00:52:12.080 align:middle line:84% And then they just sue the federal government 00:52:12.080 --> 00:52:12.900 align:middle line:90% for their costs. 00:52:12.900 --> 00:52:17.440 align:middle line:84% And a large industry has emerged basically 00:52:17.440 --> 00:52:20.500 align:middle line:84% ensuring that they know they have guaranteed revenues. 00:52:20.500 --> 00:52:23.760 align:middle line:84% It's a very good industry to be in because you just 00:52:23.760 --> 00:52:25.445 align:middle line:84% do whatever you want to do, and then 00:52:25.445 --> 00:52:27.320 align:middle line:84% you sue the federal government for your costs 00:52:27.320 --> 00:52:30.040 align:middle line:90% and then you recover your cost. 00:52:30.040 --> 00:52:32.280 align:middle line:90% So it's a good business. 00:52:32.280 --> 00:52:36.310 align:middle line:84% And so far, well, as of last time I checked-- 00:52:36.310 --> 00:52:38.770 align:middle line:84% last time I had an actual number, which was 2015, 00:52:38.770 --> 00:52:43.050 align:middle line:84% which is now 10 years old-- over $5 billion had been paid out, 00:52:43.050 --> 00:52:45.750 align:middle line:84% and probably now it's in the 20s of billions of dollars 00:52:45.750 --> 00:52:50.830 align:middle line:84% or something like that, many tens of billions of dollars. 00:52:50.830 --> 00:52:55.390 align:middle line:84% So it has created this really weird, perverse incentive 00:52:55.390 --> 00:52:58.910 align:middle line:84% to basically do nothing about this problem, 00:52:58.910 --> 00:53:03.310 align:middle line:84% because the problem is solving itself. 00:53:03.310 --> 00:53:07.810 align:middle line:84% But it can't be more than an interim solution, 00:53:07.810 --> 00:53:10.110 align:middle line:84% because officially, long-term is supposed 00:53:10.110 --> 00:53:11.810 align:middle line:90% to be a geological repository. 00:53:11.810 --> 00:53:13.088 align:middle line:90% Yep? 00:53:13.088 --> 00:53:14.630 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I'm not entirely sure where 00:53:14.630 --> 00:53:17.730 align:middle line:84% this would fall in terms of the long-term repository, 00:53:17.730 --> 00:53:22.870 align:middle line:84% but suppose you started a private corporation. 00:53:22.870 --> 00:53:24.850 align:middle line:84% Ignore how you get the funding for this. 00:53:24.850 --> 00:53:27.670 align:middle line:84% You built a long-term repository. 00:53:27.670 --> 00:53:31.150 align:middle line:84% Couldn't you then go and sue the federal government for the money 00:53:31.150 --> 00:53:34.050 align:middle line:84% to recoup your costs and just do the storage there? 00:53:34.050 --> 00:53:35.550 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: So there are a couple 00:53:35.550 --> 00:53:37.310 align:middle line:90% of companies trying to do this. 00:53:37.310 --> 00:53:39.830 align:middle line:90% There's one in Texas. 00:53:39.830 --> 00:53:41.477 align:middle line:90% There's one in Canada. 00:53:41.477 --> 00:53:43.810 align:middle line:84% There may be another one somewhere in the United States, 00:53:43.810 --> 00:53:45.190 align:middle line:90% I can't remember. 00:53:45.190 --> 00:53:47.150 align:middle line:84% And the idea is, yes, they're going 00:53:47.150 --> 00:53:51.430 align:middle line:84% to try to open a private geologic repository. 00:53:51.430 --> 00:53:56.310 align:middle line:84% The issue is that you still have to have state-level approval. 00:53:56.310 --> 00:53:59.868 align:middle line:84% And you'll have to meet all the EPA guidelines and all 00:53:59.868 --> 00:54:01.910 align:middle line:84% of these things, which are rules, which are still 00:54:01.910 --> 00:54:04.310 align:middle line:90% binding on private entities. 00:54:04.310 --> 00:54:06.630 align:middle line:84% So you still have to do everything. 00:54:06.630 --> 00:54:11.510 align:middle line:84% But in principle, you could create a parallel structure 00:54:11.510 --> 00:54:15.110 align:middle line:84% through the federal government for solving this problem. 00:54:15.110 --> 00:54:18.410 align:middle line:84% So, yeah, that is something that's happening. 00:54:18.410 --> 00:54:20.050 align:middle line:90% They haven't made much progress. 00:54:20.050 --> 00:54:23.530 align:middle line:84% I still think states still don't want it in their state, 00:54:23.530 --> 00:54:27.670 align:middle line:90% but people are talking about it. 00:54:27.670 --> 00:54:31.550 align:middle line:90% So what about other countries? 00:54:31.550 --> 00:54:34.350 align:middle line:84% So just let me just briefly run through some of them. 00:54:34.350 --> 00:54:37.830 align:middle line:84% The most successful so far has been Finland. 00:54:37.830 --> 00:54:40.410 align:middle line:84% They operate a repository called Onkalo. 00:54:40.410 --> 00:54:44.730 align:middle line:90% 00:54:44.730 --> 00:54:47.710 align:middle line:90% I think it's a granite bedrock. 00:54:47.710 --> 00:54:52.350 align:middle line:84% There's a documentary about the creation of this thing. 00:54:52.350 --> 00:54:54.310 align:middle line:90% It's worth watching. 00:54:54.310 --> 00:54:57.630 align:middle line:84% It's amazing to see these Finnish people sit there on TV 00:54:57.630 --> 00:54:59.230 align:middle line:84% and say, well, we created this waste 00:54:59.230 --> 00:55:01.730 align:middle line:84% and it's our moral obligation to find a solution. 00:55:01.730 --> 00:55:04.990 align:middle line:84% And so we allowed the repository in our community 00:55:04.990 --> 00:55:07.430 align:middle line:84% because we feel that we need to do this. 00:55:07.430 --> 00:55:09.730 align:middle line:84% And it's just like, wow, you are not Americans. 00:55:09.730 --> 00:55:12.850 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:55:12.850 --> 00:55:13.350 align:middle line:90% 00:55:13.350 --> 00:55:17.155 align:middle line:84% So the operating license was, I think, 00:55:17.155 --> 00:55:19.530 align:middle line:84% supposed to be granted this year, but they've delayed it. 00:55:19.530 --> 00:55:21.550 align:middle line:84% They're trying to do more safety studies. 00:55:21.550 --> 00:55:25.630 align:middle line:84% Their protection horizon is a million years. 00:55:25.630 --> 00:55:28.570 align:middle line:90% Sweden has their own concept. 00:55:28.570 --> 00:55:33.580 align:middle line:84% They have chosen clay, bentonite clay. 00:55:33.580 --> 00:55:36.380 align:middle line:84% They have a copper canister, which 00:55:36.380 --> 00:55:38.580 align:middle line:84% they feel the combination of copper being corrosion 00:55:38.580 --> 00:55:43.260 align:middle line:84% resistant and bentonite being something that absorbs nuclides 00:55:43.260 --> 00:55:48.260 align:middle line:84% well, which limits their transport in water. 00:55:48.260 --> 00:55:51.460 align:middle line:84% They are again looking at million-year protection 00:55:51.460 --> 00:55:52.980 align:middle line:90% timescales. 00:55:52.980 --> 00:55:58.900 align:middle line:84% Canada has selected a site at Lake Wabigoon. 00:55:58.900 --> 00:56:01.837 align:middle line:90% And it's a granite site. 00:56:01.837 --> 00:56:03.920 align:middle line:84% I don't know what their protection timescales are, 00:56:03.920 --> 00:56:05.462 align:middle line:84% but they've simply selected the site. 00:56:05.462 --> 00:56:07.060 align:middle line:90% They aren't doing anything. 00:56:07.060 --> 00:56:09.980 align:middle line:84% France has chosen a site in clay. 00:56:09.980 --> 00:56:12.440 align:middle line:84% They are also in the regulatory phase like Canada-- 00:56:12.440 --> 00:56:13.660 align:middle line:90% no construction yet. 00:56:13.660 --> 00:56:17.140 align:middle line:84% They plan to operate the site for 150-year timescale with 00:56:17.140 --> 00:56:20.620 align:middle line:84% safety standards on hundreds of thousands of years is what they 00:56:20.620 --> 00:56:21.700 align:middle line:90% say. 00:56:21.700 --> 00:56:26.580 align:middle line:84% The UK is trying to do a consent-based siting process 00:56:26.580 --> 00:56:29.100 align:middle line:84% where they go around to communities where they have 00:56:29.100 --> 00:56:32.300 align:middle line:90% no particular site in mind. 00:56:32.300 --> 00:56:37.140 align:middle line:84% Russia and Japan, mostly Russia, has basically said, oh, we 00:56:37.140 --> 00:56:39.380 align:middle line:90% don't need no waste depository. 00:56:39.380 --> 00:56:42.540 align:middle line:84% We're just going to do the closed fuel cycle. 00:56:42.540 --> 00:56:47.820 align:middle line:84% So let me just tell you briefly about the closed fuel cycle. 00:56:47.820 --> 00:56:52.500 align:middle line:84% So this was originally called, for decades, reprocessing. 00:56:52.500 --> 00:56:56.780 align:middle line:84% And about 15 years ago someone got the clever idea 00:56:56.780 --> 00:57:02.540 align:middle line:84% of changing the name to recycling, which sounds better. 00:57:02.540 --> 00:57:05.300 align:middle line:84% And so this is the idea of recycling. 00:57:05.300 --> 00:57:06.880 align:middle line:90% So what is the story here? 00:57:06.880 --> 00:57:12.700 align:middle line:90% 00:57:12.700 --> 00:57:14.380 align:middle line:84% So if we're going to look at this, 00:57:14.380 --> 00:57:15.900 align:middle line:90% it's worth thinking about-- 00:57:15.900 --> 00:57:19.380 align:middle line:84% where does the radioactivity come from? 00:57:19.380 --> 00:57:26.650 align:middle line:84% So after 10 years, it's mostly, if you see in the beginning, 00:57:26.650 --> 00:57:28.370 align:middle line:90% it's fission products. 00:57:28.370 --> 00:57:29.610 align:middle line:90% This is the solid green here. 00:57:29.610 --> 00:57:32.530 align:middle line:84% And after about 10 years, the dominant fission product is-- 00:57:32.530 --> 00:57:33.150 align:middle line:90% surprise-- 00:57:33.150 --> 00:57:34.550 align:middle line:90% Cesium-137. 00:57:34.550 --> 00:57:38.570 align:middle line:84% And then you also have to worry about things like Strontium-90 00:57:38.570 --> 00:57:40.250 align:middle line:90% and ytterbium and so on. 00:57:40.250 --> 00:57:42.590 align:middle line:84% And we are worried about these isotopes, 00:57:42.590 --> 00:57:46.570 align:middle line:84% particularly because, remember, strontium acts like calcium 00:57:46.570 --> 00:57:48.770 align:middle line:90% and gets in your bones. 00:57:48.770 --> 00:57:51.490 align:middle line:84% Cesium acts like potassium and is 00:57:51.490 --> 00:57:53.710 align:middle line:90% metabolically available to us. 00:57:53.710 --> 00:57:57.130 align:middle line:84% So these are the things that we really want to protect against. 00:57:57.130 --> 00:58:01.010 align:middle line:84% And they decay away on timescales of hundreds of years. 00:58:01.010 --> 00:58:04.730 align:middle line:84% But in the first 100 years, this is what really dominates. 00:58:04.730 --> 00:58:07.810 align:middle line:84% Then, in the long run, the actinides 00:58:07.810 --> 00:58:10.930 align:middle line:84% begin to dominate after several hundred years. 00:58:10.930 --> 00:58:13.810 align:middle line:84% These are the uranium and plutonium and curium and cerium 00:58:13.810 --> 00:58:15.050 align:middle line:90% and all the rest. 00:58:15.050 --> 00:58:20.050 align:middle line:84% So you just bear this in mind how this operates. 00:58:20.050 --> 00:58:23.530 align:middle line:84% So one of the things that you could do 00:58:23.530 --> 00:58:27.690 align:middle line:84% is you could remove these fission products, which 00:58:27.690 --> 00:58:30.970 align:middle line:84% are the dominant form for the first 100 years, 00:58:30.970 --> 00:58:33.370 align:middle line:90% and store them separately. 00:58:33.370 --> 00:58:36.330 align:middle line:84% And then you could build a long-term repository 00:58:36.330 --> 00:58:40.370 align:middle line:84% that had much lower performance standards, because you only 00:58:40.370 --> 00:58:42.730 align:middle line:90% had to deal with the actinides. 00:58:42.730 --> 00:58:48.610 align:middle line:84% So that is the argument for reprocessing, 00:58:48.610 --> 00:58:52.930 align:middle line:84% that you would ease the requirements on the repository. 00:58:52.930 --> 00:58:56.170 align:middle line:84% Here's the problem with this argument. 00:58:56.170 --> 00:58:59.090 align:middle line:84% When you remove these and store these on the surface, 00:58:59.090 --> 00:59:00.570 align:middle line:84% you are doing exactly the opposite 00:59:00.570 --> 00:59:02.570 align:middle line:84% of what you wanted to do while you were building 00:59:02.570 --> 00:59:04.298 align:middle line:84% the repository in the first place, which 00:59:04.298 --> 00:59:06.090 align:middle line:84% is to get these things out of the biosphere 00:59:06.090 --> 00:59:08.690 align:middle line:90% where they can hurt us. 00:59:08.690 --> 00:59:12.450 align:middle line:84% So it's a little bit of a sleight of hand 00:59:12.450 --> 00:59:15.250 align:middle line:84% and a bit of a magic trick that doesn't really 00:59:15.250 --> 00:59:17.250 align:middle line:90% have any bearing there. 00:59:17.250 --> 00:59:21.890 align:middle line:84% But this is actually the French perspective, 00:59:21.890 --> 00:59:25.600 align:middle line:90% that this is what we need to do. 00:59:25.600 --> 00:59:28.540 align:middle line:84% So they have these reprocessing plants. 00:59:28.540 --> 00:59:30.860 align:middle line:84% This is the La Hague reprocessing plant. 00:59:30.860 --> 00:59:32.880 align:middle line:90% These things are not cheap. 00:59:32.880 --> 00:59:36.240 align:middle line:84% In today's dollars, it would be like $30 to $40 billion 00:59:36.240 --> 00:59:38.940 align:middle line:90% to build. 00:59:38.940 --> 00:59:40.860 align:middle line:90% They built one at Rokkasho. 00:59:40.860 --> 00:59:43.200 align:middle line:90% It was a decade behind schedule. 00:59:43.200 --> 00:59:48.100 align:middle line:90% And the idea is as follows. 00:59:48.100 --> 00:59:50.840 align:middle line:90% You have a thermal reactor. 00:59:50.840 --> 00:59:54.220 align:middle line:84% And then, let's see, where do I start? 00:59:54.220 --> 00:59:59.320 align:middle line:90% 00:59:59.320 --> 01:00:00.480 align:middle line:90% I'll start over here. 01:00:00.480 --> 01:00:02.240 align:middle line:90% Natural uranium comes in. 01:00:02.240 --> 01:00:04.660 align:middle line:90% You make UOX fuel, uranium fuel. 01:00:04.660 --> 01:00:06.320 align:middle line:84% You burn it in your thermal reactor. 01:00:06.320 --> 01:00:08.240 align:middle line:90% It goes to a reprocessing plant. 01:00:08.240 --> 01:00:10.000 align:middle line:90% And then, what do you get out? 01:00:10.000 --> 01:00:12.560 align:middle line:84% You get some uranium, you get a bunch 01:00:12.560 --> 01:00:14.680 align:middle line:84% of liquid waste full of fission products 01:00:14.680 --> 01:00:18.380 align:middle line:84% that you have to deal with that you might vitrify into glass. 01:00:18.380 --> 01:00:21.720 align:middle line:84% And then you get plutonium, which you then make new fuel out 01:00:21.720 --> 01:00:23.860 align:middle line:84% of and you get what's called mixed oxide fuel. 01:00:23.860 --> 01:00:25.620 align:middle line:84% And then you put it back in the reactor. 01:00:25.620 --> 01:00:28.517 align:middle line:84% And then people talk about burning the mixed oxide 01:00:28.517 --> 01:00:29.100 align:middle line:90% over and over. 01:00:29.100 --> 01:00:32.280 align:middle line:84% But it turns out, in reality, you can't practically 01:00:32.280 --> 01:00:34.200 align:middle line:90% usually burn it more than once. 01:00:34.200 --> 01:00:40.960 align:middle line:84% So then you get spent fuel that is spent MOX fuel out. 01:00:40.960 --> 01:00:44.280 align:middle line:90% So that is the idea. 01:00:44.280 --> 01:00:48.440 align:middle line:84% It makes better utilization of the uranium, but at the cost 01:00:48.440 --> 01:00:51.760 align:middle line:84% of having all of this additional architecture 01:00:51.760 --> 01:00:55.320 align:middle line:84% to process, dissolve the fuel, and create these different waste 01:00:55.320 --> 01:00:56.440 align:middle line:90% streams. 01:00:56.440 --> 01:00:59.800 align:middle line:90% So this was being done. 01:00:59.800 --> 01:01:03.040 align:middle line:84% But basically, the people, the countries 01:01:03.040 --> 01:01:08.360 align:middle line:84% that were doing this, the UK and the United States 01:01:08.360 --> 01:01:11.400 align:middle line:84% and several other countries which are not on the list, 01:01:11.400 --> 01:01:12.820 align:middle line:90% decided this was too expensive. 01:01:12.820 --> 01:01:15.560 align:middle line:84% In 2011, they decided they weren't going to do this. 01:01:15.560 --> 01:01:22.050 align:middle line:84% But France, Russia, and Japan continue to engage in this plan. 01:01:22.050 --> 01:01:24.930 align:middle line:90% 01:01:24.930 --> 01:01:28.710 align:middle line:84% The Russians, in particular, like the idea 01:01:28.710 --> 01:01:31.310 align:middle line:84% that you will have fast reactors. 01:01:31.310 --> 01:01:35.350 align:middle line:84% And you can more efficiently burn the MOX fuel 01:01:35.350 --> 01:01:39.790 align:middle line:84% in a fast reactor and burn up a lot more of the transuranics 01:01:39.790 --> 01:01:42.150 align:middle line:90% in the fast reactor. 01:01:42.150 --> 01:01:44.710 align:middle line:90% So that is kind of the idea. 01:01:44.710 --> 01:01:49.310 align:middle line:84% TerraPower is basically this concept. 01:01:49.310 --> 01:01:52.710 align:middle line:90% So this idea is back. 01:01:52.710 --> 01:01:57.270 align:middle line:84% So the logic of this originally was-- 01:01:57.270 --> 01:01:59.030 align:middle line:84% we needed to do this because we thought 01:01:59.030 --> 01:02:01.670 align:middle line:84% there wasn't a lot of uranium in the world, 01:02:01.670 --> 01:02:06.110 align:middle line:84% so we needed to make better utilization of uranium. 01:02:06.110 --> 01:02:11.910 align:middle line:84% Then, it turned out that that was not true. 01:02:11.910 --> 01:02:14.430 align:middle line:84% Turns out uranium is more abundant than tin. 01:02:14.430 --> 01:02:16.130 align:middle line:84% There's lots of uranium in the world, 01:02:16.130 --> 01:02:19.910 align:middle line:84% but people still like the idea of efficient use. 01:02:19.910 --> 01:02:23.890 align:middle line:84% But we should think back to the original lecture of, 01:02:23.890 --> 01:02:26.350 align:middle line:84% what does it really mean to be efficient? 01:02:26.350 --> 01:02:29.430 align:middle line:90% It basically means lowest cost. 01:02:29.430 --> 01:02:31.830 align:middle line:84% If it's cheaper to do something else, 01:02:31.830 --> 01:02:36.110 align:middle line:84% it's not efficient from a social perspective. 01:02:36.110 --> 01:02:38.590 align:middle line:84% It may be efficient from a technical perspective, 01:02:38.590 --> 01:02:41.870 align:middle line:90% but that doesn't really matter. 01:02:41.870 --> 01:02:43.330 align:middle line:84% What really matters to society is, 01:02:43.330 --> 01:02:45.230 align:middle line:90% what does it cost us to do that? 01:02:45.230 --> 01:02:48.310 align:middle line:84% Because you have to pay per unit energy. 01:02:48.310 --> 01:02:51.170 align:middle line:84% And then it reduces the repository requirements, 01:02:51.170 --> 01:02:52.830 align:middle line:90% as I mentioned. 01:02:52.830 --> 01:02:54.630 align:middle line:84% But it's a bit of a sleight of hand. 01:02:54.630 --> 01:02:57.350 align:middle line:84% Yes, it reduces the repository requirements, 01:02:57.350 --> 01:02:59.950 align:middle line:84% but you have to then have things that are not 01:02:59.950 --> 01:03:04.310 align:middle line:84% in the repository, which is the whole point of the repository. 01:03:04.310 --> 01:03:08.430 align:middle line:84% So, tricky, so we should look at these things a little bit more 01:03:08.430 --> 01:03:10.650 align:middle line:90% carefully. 01:03:10.650 --> 01:03:15.310 align:middle line:84% So this is just to show you about the uranium situation 01:03:15.310 --> 01:03:17.580 align:middle line:84% from Deffeyes and MacGregor, which 01:03:17.580 --> 01:03:22.980 align:middle line:84% is the most authoritative dataset on uranium availability. 01:03:22.980 --> 01:03:26.980 align:middle line:84% And we are currently mining vein deposits 01:03:26.980 --> 01:03:29.460 align:middle line:84% and some of these deposits over here 01:03:29.460 --> 01:03:31.500 align:middle line:90% that are in this light color. 01:03:31.500 --> 01:03:33.940 align:middle line:84% But you see that as we move to these other lower-grade 01:03:33.940 --> 01:03:39.540 align:middle line:84% deposits, the amount of uranium goes up by factors of 10 01:03:39.540 --> 01:03:41.787 align:middle line:84% and factors of 10 and factors of 10. 01:03:41.787 --> 01:03:44.120 align:middle line:84% So there's actually quite a lot of uranium in the world. 01:03:44.120 --> 01:03:48.940 align:middle line:84% And indeed, if we're talking about uranium from ocean water, 01:03:48.940 --> 01:03:52.700 align:middle line:90% there's a huge amount available. 01:03:52.700 --> 01:03:59.900 align:middle line:84% So MIT did a study in 2011 to estimate the probability 01:03:59.900 --> 01:04:04.900 align:middle line:84% that uranium would become in short supply. 01:04:04.900 --> 01:04:08.540 align:middle line:90% And let me explain this plot. 01:04:08.540 --> 01:04:15.140 align:middle line:84% So across the left side there is the cost 01:04:15.140 --> 01:04:18.420 align:middle line:84% of the uranium relative to its current cost. 01:04:18.420 --> 01:04:19.760 align:middle line:90% So it's like twice as expensive. 01:04:19.760 --> 01:04:22.180 align:middle line:84% This is three times as expensive and so on. 01:04:22.180 --> 01:04:25.580 align:middle line:84% Now let's just put this in perspective. 01:04:25.580 --> 01:04:30.420 align:middle line:84% How much does uranium contribute to the cost of nuclear power? 01:04:30.420 --> 01:04:32.323 align:middle line:90% Does anyone know? 01:04:32.323 --> 01:04:33.240 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Very little. 01:04:33.240 --> 01:04:34.727 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Very low. 01:04:34.727 --> 01:04:36.060 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Give me a number. 01:04:36.060 --> 01:04:37.093 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: 5%. 01:04:37.093 --> 01:04:38.260 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Less than 5%. 01:04:38.260 --> 01:04:38.435 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Less than that. 01:04:38.435 --> 01:04:38.940 align:middle line:90% It's like-- 01:04:38.940 --> 01:04:40.700 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: 3% to 5%. 01:04:40.700 --> 01:04:44.340 align:middle line:84% So if I double the cost of uranium, 01:04:44.340 --> 01:04:46.260 align:middle line:84% I've increased the cost of nuclear power 01:04:46.260 --> 01:04:48.920 align:middle line:84% by an additional 3%, something like that. 01:04:48.920 --> 01:04:52.740 align:middle line:90% It's not a big deal. 01:04:52.740 --> 01:04:57.340 align:middle line:84% So you really have to be pretty high up on this chart for it 01:04:57.340 --> 01:05:00.100 align:middle line:90% to matter. 01:05:00.100 --> 01:05:03.260 align:middle line:84% Across the bottom of the x-axis is 01:05:03.260 --> 01:05:08.100 align:middle line:84% the cumulative amount of nuclear power on a log scale. 01:05:08.100 --> 01:05:14.500 align:middle line:84% And G1 is 100 years of operation at current installed 01:05:14.500 --> 01:05:16.700 align:middle line:90% nuclear capacity levels. 01:05:16.700 --> 01:05:20.860 align:middle line:84% G5 is 100 years, if we quintuple the amount of nuclear power 01:05:20.860 --> 01:05:21.980 align:middle line:90% in the world. 01:05:21.980 --> 01:05:23.940 align:middle line:84% And right now, nuclear power is about 20% 01:05:23.940 --> 01:05:26.300 align:middle line:84% of the United States' electricity. 01:05:26.300 --> 01:05:30.300 align:middle line:84% So quintupling US means 100% of power from the US 01:05:30.300 --> 01:05:32.500 align:middle line:90% comes from nuclear. 01:05:32.500 --> 01:05:36.040 align:middle line:84% And this is at 10 times current production. 01:05:36.040 --> 01:05:39.540 align:middle line:84% So this is like all thermal fuels and transportation 01:05:39.540 --> 01:05:43.980 align:middle line:84% fuels also come from here for 100 years. 01:05:43.980 --> 01:05:49.100 align:middle line:84% So you have basically a fully nuclearized world, 01:05:49.100 --> 01:05:53.100 align:middle line:84% 100 years of operation-- there's a 50% chance that the price will 01:05:53.100 --> 01:05:58.280 align:middle line:90% be no more than 1, 2, 3 4-- 01:05:58.280 --> 01:06:01.940 align:middle line:90% 1.4 times the price. 01:06:01.940 --> 01:06:12.250 align:middle line:84% There's an 85% chance that the cost will be less than triple. 01:06:12.250 --> 01:06:17.130 align:middle line:90% So it's just not a problem. 01:06:17.130 --> 01:06:22.850 align:middle line:84% Uranium's availability issue is not a serious problem. 01:06:22.850 --> 01:06:27.970 align:middle line:84% Reprocessing becomes economic when the cost of uranium 01:06:27.970 --> 01:06:32.570 align:middle line:84% exceeds roughly $300 per kilogram. 01:06:32.570 --> 01:06:34.010 align:middle line:84% Current cost of uranium, I haven't 01:06:34.010 --> 01:06:35.750 align:middle line:84% looked in the last couple of years, 01:06:35.750 --> 01:06:38.330 align:middle line:84% it used to be about $30 a kilogram. 01:06:38.330 --> 01:06:43.590 align:middle line:90% So this corresponds to about 30. 01:06:43.590 --> 01:06:47.530 align:middle line:84% And so the cost of uranium would require a 10 on this plot. 01:06:47.530 --> 01:06:51.610 align:middle line:84% So reprocessing just doesn't make any sense 01:06:51.610 --> 01:06:55.010 align:middle line:84% if what you're worried about is uranium supply. 01:06:55.010 --> 01:06:58.110 align:middle line:84% It's way too expensive for what you're getting out of it. 01:06:58.110 --> 01:07:02.490 align:middle line:84% There's way too much uranium in the world. 01:07:02.490 --> 01:07:05.070 align:middle line:84% And that's like under very optimistic scenarios. 01:07:05.070 --> 01:07:10.850 align:middle line:90% 01:07:10.850 --> 01:07:16.210 align:middle line:84% So in Japan, the official calculation 01:07:16.210 --> 01:07:22.010 align:middle line:84% is that the break-even happens when uranium is at $600 01:07:22.010 --> 01:07:23.330 align:middle line:90% a kilogram. 01:07:23.330 --> 01:07:26.890 align:middle line:84% And the official French finding was 01:07:26.890 --> 01:07:30.890 align:middle line:84% that it would be at $800 a kilogram, so even higher 01:07:30.890 --> 01:07:32.170 align:middle line:90% than what I've just said. 01:07:32.170 --> 01:07:37.230 align:middle line:84% So the optimistic reprocessing at 300 is very optimistic. 01:07:37.230 --> 01:07:38.970 align:middle line:84% In reality, once you build these things-- 01:07:38.970 --> 01:07:40.690 align:middle line:90% there's the actual price. 01:07:40.690 --> 01:07:43.900 align:middle line:90% This slide is old. 01:07:43.900 --> 01:07:45.150 align:middle line:90% Uranium is just nowhere close. 01:07:45.150 --> 01:07:46.192 align:middle line:90% Yeah, you had a question? 01:07:46.192 --> 01:07:48.410 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Does that cost take into account 01:07:48.410 --> 01:07:50.570 align:middle line:84% the increase in uranium cost that 01:07:50.570 --> 01:07:53.130 align:middle line:84% may result from having to go to mine 01:07:53.130 --> 01:07:54.310 align:middle line:90% uranium in different places? 01:07:54.310 --> 01:07:57.010 align:middle line:84% Like you mentioned granite, for example. 01:07:57.010 --> 01:07:58.775 align:middle line:90% Maybe going to different mines-- 01:07:58.775 --> 01:08:00.150 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: So no, it doesn't. 01:08:00.150 --> 01:08:02.010 align:middle line:90% So this is the current price. 01:08:02.010 --> 01:08:04.970 align:middle line:84% Yeah, so if we go to different mining situations, 01:08:04.970 --> 01:08:06.530 align:middle line:90% the price will go up. 01:08:06.530 --> 01:08:09.620 align:middle line:84% So the price would have to go up by quite a lot. 01:08:09.620 --> 01:08:14.380 align:middle line:84% But this prediction does take that into account. 01:08:14.380 --> 01:08:17.399 align:middle line:90% 01:08:17.399 --> 01:08:18.300 align:middle line:90% Question over there? 01:08:18.300 --> 01:08:19.163 align:middle line:90% No? 01:08:19.163 --> 01:08:20.580 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I was just following up. 01:08:20.580 --> 01:08:21.737 align:middle line:90% What does Red Book mean? 01:08:21.737 --> 01:08:22.779 align:middle line:90% R. SCOTT KEMP: Oh, sorry. 01:08:22.779 --> 01:08:28.720 align:middle line:84% So Red Book, the IAEA and the OECD 01:08:28.720 --> 01:08:32.880 align:middle line:84% put together a book called the Red Book, which 01:08:32.880 --> 01:08:36.800 align:middle line:84% is all the known and speculative reserves of uranium 01:08:36.800 --> 01:08:37.920 align:middle line:90% in the world. 01:08:37.920 --> 01:08:41.899 align:middle line:84% And people sometimes look at the Red Book numbers, 01:08:41.899 --> 01:08:44.380 align:middle line:84% and they conclude, based on the Red Book, 01:08:44.380 --> 01:08:47.852 align:middle line:84% that there might not be enough uranium in the world. 01:08:47.852 --> 01:08:49.560 align:middle line:84% But the problem is you have to understand 01:08:49.560 --> 01:08:50.979 align:middle line:90% how the Red Book is done. 01:08:50.979 --> 01:08:55.000 align:middle line:84% Red Book is done by sending a survey to a government 01:08:55.000 --> 01:08:57.880 align:middle line:84% and asking them to reveal what the government knows 01:08:57.880 --> 01:08:59.500 align:middle line:90% about their uranium reserves. 01:08:59.500 --> 01:09:02.640 align:middle line:84% And some governments decide to report, 01:09:02.640 --> 01:09:05.720 align:middle line:84% and some governments don't report anything. 01:09:05.720 --> 01:09:08.359 align:middle line:84% And just because the government knows about the reserve 01:09:08.359 --> 01:09:10.760 align:middle line:84% doesn't mean there aren't other reserves. 01:09:10.760 --> 01:09:13.640 align:middle line:84% So Deffeyes and MacGregor, which is this, 01:09:13.640 --> 01:09:16.600 align:middle line:84% is actually done the correct way, which 01:09:16.600 --> 01:09:18.279 align:middle line:84% is you get a bunch of geologists and you 01:09:18.279 --> 01:09:20.720 align:middle line:84% look at all the different kind of geologies in the world, 01:09:20.720 --> 01:09:22.137 align:middle line:84% and you say, based on what we know 01:09:22.137 --> 01:09:24.819 align:middle line:84% about geology, what do we expect for the uranium concentration? 01:09:24.819 --> 01:09:26.880 align:middle line:84% That's where this plot came from. 01:09:26.880 --> 01:09:29.399 align:middle line:90% So, yeah, don't use Red Book. 01:09:29.399 --> 01:09:30.700 align:middle line:90% Use Deffeyes and MacGregor. 01:09:30.700 --> 01:09:35.269 align:middle line:90% 01:09:35.269 --> 01:09:38.840 align:middle line:84% So there are recent reports from 10 years ago 01:09:38.840 --> 01:09:42.120 align:middle line:84% that they think that they can extract uranium from seawater 01:09:42.120 --> 01:09:44.240 align:middle line:90% for $300 a kilogram. 01:09:44.240 --> 01:09:45.720 align:middle line:84% Now, I'm skeptical of this number 01:09:45.720 --> 01:09:47.920 align:middle line:84% because biofouling is always more complex 01:09:47.920 --> 01:09:49.560 align:middle line:90% than people think it is. 01:09:49.560 --> 01:09:53.760 align:middle line:84% But if this is even remotely close, 01:09:53.760 --> 01:09:56.660 align:middle line:84% reprocessing will never be economically defensible. 01:09:56.660 --> 01:10:00.400 align:middle line:90% 01:10:00.400 --> 01:10:03.812 align:middle line:84% I'm going to skip some of the waste storage 01:10:03.812 --> 01:10:05.020 align:middle line:90% because I only have a minute. 01:10:05.020 --> 01:10:06.710 align:middle line:84% But I wanted to show you this plot. 01:10:06.710 --> 01:10:11.710 align:middle line:84% Earlier I said that heat was the limiting factor, 01:10:11.710 --> 01:10:14.410 align:middle line:84% and that's true for the following reason. 01:10:14.410 --> 01:10:17.710 align:middle line:84% So this is basically Yucca Mountain. 01:10:17.710 --> 01:10:20.190 align:middle line:84% We have all these tunnels going into the board. 01:10:20.190 --> 01:10:21.570 align:middle line:90% This is a cross section. 01:10:21.570 --> 01:10:24.130 align:middle line:84% See this little waste package sitting on a pedestal here. 01:10:24.130 --> 01:10:28.230 align:middle line:84% And these are called drift tubes. 01:10:28.230 --> 01:10:29.290 align:middle line:90% Here's a schematic. 01:10:29.290 --> 01:10:32.090 align:middle line:90% So you have a tunnel. 01:10:32.090 --> 01:10:36.670 align:middle line:84% And these are the drift tubes here under the mountain. 01:10:36.670 --> 01:10:38.550 align:middle line:84% And the situation is that there's 01:10:38.550 --> 01:10:40.830 align:middle line:84% rain coming in through the top of the mountain. 01:10:40.830 --> 01:10:43.390 align:middle line:90% And water has to flow down. 01:10:43.390 --> 01:10:47.630 align:middle line:84% So you need to make sure that the temperature 01:10:47.630 --> 01:10:52.550 align:middle line:84% between these drift tubes remains below 100 C, 01:10:52.550 --> 01:10:55.230 align:middle line:84% otherwise the water will no longer be liquid. 01:10:55.230 --> 01:10:58.990 align:middle line:84% It won't be able to flow down, and then the rock above it 01:10:58.990 --> 01:11:02.710 align:middle line:84% will become saturated and very heavy and collapse the tunnels. 01:11:02.710 --> 01:11:07.870 align:middle line:84% So that is actually what sets the density of fuel 01:11:07.870 --> 01:11:09.430 align:middle line:84% that you can put into the tunnel. 01:11:09.430 --> 01:11:10.990 align:middle line:90% It's the heat. 01:11:10.990 --> 01:11:13.910 align:middle line:84% So changing the waste form to something that's smaller volume 01:11:13.910 --> 01:11:16.350 align:middle line:84% or vitrifying it, it doesn't help. 01:11:16.350 --> 01:11:19.390 align:middle line:90% It's still the same isotopes-- 01:11:19.390 --> 01:11:22.630 align:middle line:84% same number of atoms and same amount of heat. 01:11:22.630 --> 01:11:25.990 align:middle line:84% So this is the thermal loads for Yucca Mountain. 01:11:25.990 --> 01:11:28.650 align:middle line:84% Here's the temperature of the waste package, 01:11:28.650 --> 01:11:31.670 align:middle line:84% the temperature of the wall of the tunnel, 01:11:31.670 --> 01:11:33.550 align:middle line:84% and the temperature right between the two 01:11:33.550 --> 01:11:35.630 align:middle line:90% tunnels in the middle. 01:11:35.630 --> 01:11:38.830 align:middle line:84% And you see, initially they cool it 01:11:38.830 --> 01:11:41.710 align:middle line:84% by blowing forced air through the mountain. 01:11:41.710 --> 01:11:44.870 align:middle line:84% Then at 100 years, retrievability requirement 01:11:44.870 --> 01:11:46.430 align:middle line:90% goes away. 01:11:46.430 --> 01:11:49.050 align:middle line:84% So you no longer have to maintain this as an active site. 01:11:49.050 --> 01:11:51.350 align:middle line:84% You turn off the fans and you close it up. 01:11:51.350 --> 01:11:54.110 align:middle line:84% And then the temperature starts going up 01:11:54.110 --> 01:11:57.030 align:middle line:84% and you see the waste package gets very hot, something 01:11:57.030 --> 01:12:00.550 align:middle line:90% around 140, 150 degrees C. 01:12:00.550 --> 01:12:03.880 align:middle line:84% And the tunnel walls slowly, slowly, 01:12:03.880 --> 01:12:08.060 align:middle line:84% slowly heat up over 1,000 years and they just kiss the boiling 01:12:08.060 --> 01:12:10.540 align:middle line:84% water and then they come back out. 01:12:10.540 --> 01:12:17.460 align:middle line:84% And that's what sets the maximum loading for Yucca Mountain. 01:12:17.460 --> 01:12:20.260 align:middle line:90% It's all about waste heat. 01:12:20.260 --> 01:12:24.460 align:middle line:84% So in the last few seconds, I mentioned 01:12:24.460 --> 01:12:29.740 align:middle line:84% that when you use MOX fuel, you get different actinides 01:12:29.740 --> 01:12:31.220 align:middle line:90% and fission products. 01:12:31.220 --> 01:12:34.660 align:middle line:84% Well, the different higher-order actinides 01:12:34.660 --> 01:12:38.020 align:middle line:84% means that they're a little hotter. 01:12:38.020 --> 01:12:42.700 align:middle line:84% And it turns out that at about roughly at the 100-year 01:12:42.700 --> 01:12:45.300 align:middle line:84% timescale when you turn off the fans, 01:12:45.300 --> 01:12:51.300 align:middle line:90% it's about a factor of 6 hotter. 01:12:51.300 --> 01:12:55.900 align:middle line:84% And it turns out that to make a MOX fuel bundle, 01:12:55.900 --> 01:13:01.300 align:middle line:84% you need roughly six fuel bundles 01:13:01.300 --> 01:13:04.420 align:middle line:90% to make one MOX fuel bundle. 01:13:04.420 --> 01:13:09.500 align:middle line:84% So you take six out, you put one in, but it's 6 times hotter. 01:13:09.500 --> 01:13:11.540 align:middle line:90% So it's exactly the same. 01:13:11.540 --> 01:13:17.020 align:middle line:84% So it turns out not at all to solve this problem for the heat 01:13:17.020 --> 01:13:17.640 align:middle line:90% loading. 01:13:17.640 --> 01:13:18.263 align:middle line:90% Yep? 01:13:18.263 --> 01:13:20.180 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Yeah, maybe something to add to that 01:13:20.180 --> 01:13:23.820 align:middle line:84% is in Nuclear Waste Management, the professor 01:13:23.820 --> 01:13:26.180 align:middle line:84% mentioned that the worst performer 01:13:26.180 --> 01:13:30.640 align:middle line:84% for performance assessments for those is always Iodine-129. 01:13:30.640 --> 01:13:33.700 align:middle line:84% So all of the actinides, they adsorb into the soil 01:13:33.700 --> 01:13:35.860 align:middle line:84% so they don't move much and they don't really 01:13:35.860 --> 01:13:37.620 align:middle line:90% get into the biosphere much. 01:13:37.620 --> 01:13:41.060 align:middle line:84% So she mentioned that reprocessing, so long 01:13:41.060 --> 01:13:42.880 align:middle line:84% as you don't do anything about the iodine, 01:13:42.880 --> 01:13:46.700 align:middle line:84% there's nothing about your expected dose to individuals. 01:13:46.700 --> 01:13:52.420 align:middle line:84% Although granted, this is then playing the x 1,000-year life 01:13:52.420 --> 01:13:56.360 align:middle line:84% assessment game, which may not be very relevant in general. 01:13:56.360 --> 01:13:58.280 align:middle line:90% But I figured I'd mention it. 01:13:58.280 --> 01:14:00.670 align:middle line:90% Actinides, they don't move. 01:14:00.670 --> 01:14:03.030 align:middle line:84% They're like the worst in activity in these parts, 01:14:03.030 --> 01:14:05.090 align:middle line:90% but they don't move. 01:14:05.090 --> 01:14:07.465 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Well, in these parts, our concern is heat. 01:14:07.465 --> 01:14:08.423 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah, I know. 01:14:08.423 --> 01:14:10.570 align:middle line:84% But to add to it, it's also just, they don't-- 01:14:10.570 --> 01:14:12.362 align:middle line:84% R. SCOTT KEMP: Radiotoxicity point of view. 01:14:12.362 --> 01:14:12.890 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 01:14:12.890 --> 01:14:13.430 align:middle line:90% All right. 01:14:13.430 --> 01:14:15.443 align:middle line:84% So I'll just close with this quote 01:14:15.443 --> 01:14:16.610 align:middle line:90% from the French government-- 01:14:16.610 --> 01:14:19.450 align:middle line:84% "Spent MOX fuel will have to be stored above ground for 150 01:14:19.450 --> 01:14:23.070 align:middle line:84% years to centuries before we put it into repository." 01:14:23.070 --> 01:14:27.330 align:middle line:84% It's just like, what's the point? 01:14:27.330 --> 01:14:29.410 align:middle line:90% OK. 01:14:29.410 --> 01:14:30.610 align:middle line:90% We'll continue this. 01:14:30.610 --> 01:14:33.980 align:middle line:84% I might have a little bit more I'll talk about next class. 01:14:33.980 --> 01:14:58.000 align:middle line:90%