WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.520 The following content is provided under a Creative 00:00:02.520 --> 00:00:03.970 Commons license. 00:00:03.970 --> 00:00:06.360 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 00:00:06.360 --> 00:00:10.660 continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. 00:00:10.660 --> 00:00:13.350 To make a donation or view additional materials 00:00:13.350 --> 00:00:17.190 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 00:00:17.190 --> 00:00:18.320 at ocw.mit.edu. 00:00:28.440 --> 00:00:32.430 JULIAN BEINART: It's going to be a strange new rhythm, not 00:00:32.430 --> 00:00:37.970 turning up here on Tuesdays and Thursdays endlessly. 00:00:37.970 --> 00:00:41.220 It's been an incredible saga. 00:00:48.110 --> 00:00:53.560 We have a minute, because Thursday will not 00:00:53.560 --> 00:00:56.170 be a good time for doing it. 00:00:56.170 --> 00:00:59.470 I'd like to spend five minutes or 10 minutes with you. 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:07.920 I can't ask for advice as to how to do it better. 00:01:07.920 --> 00:01:11.430 Thank God I won't have to. 00:01:11.430 --> 00:01:16.470 But I'd be interested in your general comments 00:01:16.470 --> 00:01:20.460 about what we tried to do. 00:01:20.460 --> 00:01:22.370 I'd like to pass it on, too. 00:01:27.550 --> 00:01:32.340 Since 1956, this class has been taught every year. 00:01:32.340 --> 00:01:36.045 That's 44-- 57 years. 00:01:38.750 --> 00:01:43.280 After 57 years, it should be retired, which it is. 00:01:43.280 --> 00:01:46.670 Whether it will continue in any form or another 00:01:46.670 --> 00:01:48.590 is not up to me. 00:01:48.590 --> 00:01:52.100 There's a rule, thank God, where that if you retire, 00:01:52.100 --> 00:01:54.170 your successors are independent. 00:01:56.870 --> 00:02:00.910 They have to bear the burden of their predecessors. 00:02:00.910 --> 00:02:03.050 And fortunately, this class will be 00:02:03.050 --> 00:02:06.380 recorded for archival purposes, so they 00:02:06.380 --> 00:02:08.375 won't be able to get rid of me that easily. 00:02:14.500 --> 00:02:17.980 Let's just spend a few minutes having 00:02:17.980 --> 00:02:26.020 a little discussion about this enormous problematic area 00:02:26.020 --> 00:02:31.450 dealing with the non-European, non-American world, 00:02:31.450 --> 00:02:34.000 and non-selective Asian world. 00:02:36.950 --> 00:02:41.880 It's called, in some terms, the developing world. 00:02:41.880 --> 00:02:46.090 Now, the new name for it is the Global South. 00:02:46.090 --> 00:02:51.700 That is the term which has been appropriated by the newest 00:02:51.700 --> 00:02:58.870 attempt to galvanize international and professional 00:02:58.870 --> 00:03:04.435 interest in an apparently new way of doing things. 00:03:09.330 --> 00:03:16.410 You must recall that I said that 1950 was the first time 00:03:16.410 --> 00:03:17.820 a book in English-- 00:03:17.820 --> 00:03:19.920 and probably in any language-- 00:03:19.920 --> 00:03:23.310 appeared on the subject of the so-called world 00:03:23.310 --> 00:03:26.640 of international poverty. 00:03:26.640 --> 00:03:30.750 This was not Freidrich Engels writing about Manchester, 00:03:30.750 --> 00:03:33.420 or what could be seen as its equivalent. 00:03:33.420 --> 00:03:39.660 But Charlie Abrams at MIT was a lawyer who had worked in India, 00:03:39.660 --> 00:03:43.780 and decided to come back here and write about it. 00:03:43.780 --> 00:03:48.960 He was a New Yorker writing about the emerging problems 00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:50.805 of population growth and poverty. 00:03:56.360 --> 00:04:02.660 It's curious that when looking back 00:04:02.660 --> 00:04:14.770 on the situation in Manchester in 1830, 00:04:14.770 --> 00:04:21.070 when the young German could write about and analyze 00:04:21.070 --> 00:04:29.560 the industrial poverty, that the sudden leap of economy 00:04:29.560 --> 00:04:38.710 had taken in Great Britain only since some 80 years before, 00:04:38.710 --> 00:04:43.000 if we count 1750 as the beginning date. 00:04:46.900 --> 00:04:48.730 Engels and Marx were-- 00:04:48.730 --> 00:04:52.810 Engels particularly was dissatisfied with the pace 00:04:52.810 --> 00:04:56.710 of recalibration in England. 00:04:56.710 --> 00:05:00.160 He dismissed the moves of the Chartist Group 00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:03.280 as being ineffective. 00:05:03.280 --> 00:05:09.610 The British move first through charity, then 00:05:09.610 --> 00:05:13.300 through the state and the nation, 00:05:13.300 --> 00:05:17.220 paying attention to what is called social housing. 00:05:17.220 --> 00:05:20.540 It was definitive. 00:05:20.540 --> 00:05:23.140 It was the first nation in the world 00:05:23.140 --> 00:05:26.050 to tackle this problem systematically-- not 00:05:26.050 --> 00:05:27.430 systematically. 00:05:27.430 --> 00:05:29.410 Partially. 00:05:29.410 --> 00:05:34.540 But had Engels waited around in England until today, 00:05:34.540 --> 00:05:38.830 he might have seen that it had measures of success, 00:05:38.830 --> 00:05:42.880 despite Maggie Thatcher's involvement 00:05:42.880 --> 00:05:48.730 in the interim over a period. 00:05:48.730 --> 00:05:51.570 And keep on remembering that the British are 00:05:51.570 --> 00:05:54.370 slow but determined. 00:05:57.130 --> 00:06:02.590 I quoted sir Joseph Paxton, the builder of the Crystal 00:06:02.590 --> 00:06:09.340 Palace, the gardener who said, we do things 00:06:09.340 --> 00:06:12.830 by common sense and technology. 00:06:12.830 --> 00:06:15.220 Almost everything was commonsensical, 00:06:15.220 --> 00:06:23.700 and even in regard to science and the development 00:06:23.700 --> 00:06:28.500 of massive waves of technological innovation 00:06:28.500 --> 00:06:30.480 the world had ever seen. 00:06:30.480 --> 00:06:37.200 Above all, I remind you that what happened 00:06:37.200 --> 00:06:44.780 was the first destruction of the Malthusian trap, which 00:06:44.780 --> 00:06:46.960 is fundamental. 00:06:46.960 --> 00:06:48.830 As urbanists, you should remember 00:06:48.830 --> 00:06:53.840 as one of the key factors in human development. 00:06:56.350 --> 00:07:00.880 In my little talk on Friday, I'll start with, I think, 00:07:00.880 --> 00:07:04.780 the first, and that's the increase 00:07:04.780 --> 00:07:12.910 in human brain size from 400 cubic centimeters to 1,450, 00:07:12.910 --> 00:07:15.610 and what caused that. 00:07:15.610 --> 00:07:19.840 The Malthusian trap, you will recall, 00:07:19.840 --> 00:07:26.240 equated population growth with death. 00:07:26.240 --> 00:07:28.620 The stable size of population was all 00:07:28.620 --> 00:07:38.580 that agricultural innovation could supply, or could 00:07:38.580 --> 00:07:40.680 forestall. 00:07:40.680 --> 00:07:45.600 And the sudden capacity to unleash a population 00:07:45.600 --> 00:07:54.660 to move relatively freely with the advent of the larger 00:07:54.660 --> 00:07:58.920 migration patterns that I think that we see now, where-- 00:08:04.050 --> 00:08:06.810 anyway. 00:08:06.810 --> 00:08:10.410 London became the largest city in the world 00:08:10.410 --> 00:08:11.635 in a very quick manner. 00:08:16.630 --> 00:08:18.560 We're not lecturing about London, 00:08:18.560 --> 00:08:21.320 although it's tempting to recall London. 00:08:21.320 --> 00:08:22.475 Such a great story. 00:08:27.660 --> 00:08:32.299 Engles took to the road. 00:08:32.299 --> 00:08:35.909 He and Marx were in Paris in 1848. 00:08:35.909 --> 00:08:41.700 And then Engels spiriting himself all over Europe, 00:08:41.700 --> 00:08:49.530 nurturing, evolving Marxism, until eventually, of course, 00:08:49.530 --> 00:08:58.310 after his death, Russia succeeded in attempting 00:08:58.310 --> 00:09:01.550 to transform the world. 00:09:01.550 --> 00:09:05.690 That transformation was built on the image 00:09:05.690 --> 00:09:06.800 of industrial poverty. 00:09:10.230 --> 00:09:14.640 No advertisement-- I mean, the book 00:09:14.640 --> 00:09:21.620 Sotsgorod, written by Milyutin, the Russian architect 00:09:21.620 --> 00:09:24.980 and bureaucrat, starts off with a photograph 00:09:24.980 --> 00:09:28.970 of the industrial city, smoke belching out of pipes, 00:09:28.970 --> 00:09:32.820 workers disenfranchised. 00:09:32.820 --> 00:09:35.640 I can't think of anything else that 00:09:35.640 --> 00:09:48.575 forced the publicity of the attempt to nationalize poverty. 00:09:57.780 --> 00:10:03.410 The story of the so-called third world is different. 00:10:07.220 --> 00:10:10.070 The battle against poverty in Europe 00:10:10.070 --> 00:10:16.780 was on the basis of a history of development. 00:10:16.780 --> 00:10:20.265 There are very poor people in Vienna today. 00:10:23.420 --> 00:10:30.640 Vienna, since the liberals took over from the royalty in 1870, 00:10:30.640 --> 00:10:39.250 1860s, went through various exercises, including the rabid, 00:10:39.250 --> 00:10:44.020 the rampant, period of Red Vienna in the 1920s after 00:10:44.020 --> 00:10:51.220 the '14-'18 war, which produced the Karl Marx-Hof, 00:10:51.220 --> 00:10:54.010 Matteotti-Hof. 00:10:54.010 --> 00:10:59.860 It's interesting that the reaction of the major cities 00:10:59.860 --> 00:11:03.040 that we looked at, the five major cities, 00:11:03.040 --> 00:11:07.920 each produced a specific housing type. 00:11:07.920 --> 00:11:10.950 London produced the residential square. 00:11:10.950 --> 00:11:14.430 Paris produced the boulevard house, the Haussmannian 00:11:14.430 --> 00:11:15.990 boulevard house. 00:11:15.990 --> 00:11:21.180 Vienna produced the [INAUDIBLE],, the first large palace-like 00:11:21.180 --> 00:11:23.725 condominium building, and the hof. 00:11:26.270 --> 00:11:29.000 Barcelona produced the square block 00:11:29.000 --> 00:11:33.080 of Cerda and the Ensanche. 00:11:33.080 --> 00:11:37.430 So it's extraordinary that every major attempt 00:11:37.430 --> 00:11:40.550 to reformulate the form of the city 00:11:40.550 --> 00:11:45.045 produces a new housing type in its wake. 00:11:50.040 --> 00:11:54.060 Chicago-- I don't know what it did. 00:11:54.060 --> 00:11:57.750 Chicago probably didn't produce a housing type. 00:12:00.330 --> 00:12:05.140 The genesis of the American suburban house 00:12:05.140 --> 00:12:11.775 is old and starts with the British conquest. 00:12:17.780 --> 00:12:20.570 So [INAUDIBLE] we switch back and then 00:12:20.570 --> 00:12:25.760 analogically to the condition of poverty 00:12:25.760 --> 00:12:27.580 in the developing world. 00:12:32.560 --> 00:12:37.660 Of all the demonstrations of international cooperation, 00:12:37.660 --> 00:12:43.900 I argued that the Olympic Games stands out as the most 00:12:43.900 --> 00:12:47.350 regular and beneficent. 00:12:47.350 --> 00:12:51.340 Nobody objects to the Olympic games. 00:12:51.340 --> 00:12:54.260 They should have in '36, but they didn't. 00:12:54.260 --> 00:12:56.020 Certainly, the Americans didn't. 00:13:03.930 --> 00:13:10.710 The Olympic Games has been held, in all of its years since 1896, 00:13:10.710 --> 00:13:15.690 only once in a city in which the majority of people are poor. 00:13:15.690 --> 00:13:17.700 That's Mexico. 00:13:17.700 --> 00:13:23.360 It's 1968. 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:26.180 The funding of the Olympic Games is either 00:13:26.180 --> 00:13:31.530 in favor of a national economic gain, 00:13:31.530 --> 00:13:37.290 advertising yourself on the international economic platform 00:13:37.290 --> 00:13:42.810 or, at best, gratifying a national impulse 00:13:42.810 --> 00:13:49.440 to be worldly and international and, even more at best, 00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:54.750 to satisfy perhaps a plangent ambition in all of us 00:13:54.750 --> 00:14:00.800 to be part of a good world, which is seldom available, 00:14:00.800 --> 00:14:05.390 where people run in peace against each other 00:14:05.390 --> 00:14:11.330 as they did in 1896 in Athens. 00:14:11.330 --> 00:14:14.210 But the options for the developing world are few, 00:14:14.210 --> 00:14:19.370 because of two meta-conditions-- 00:14:19.370 --> 00:14:28.540 first of all, the residue of colonialism 00:14:28.540 --> 00:14:35.320 and the emancipation of wealth from sources such as Mexico, 00:14:35.320 --> 00:14:40.210 from sources such as India through the cotton trade, 00:14:40.210 --> 00:14:48.010 from almost every African country, gold and diamonds 00:14:48.010 --> 00:14:55.460 and uranium from South Africa; secondly, 00:14:55.460 --> 00:14:58.640 particularly in Africa, the incipient tradition 00:14:58.640 --> 00:14:59.960 of tribalism. 00:15:03.980 --> 00:15:09.480 Tribes were-- the world was born in Africa. 00:15:12.500 --> 00:15:19.640 The first species of protohuman was discovered 1,000 miles 00:15:19.640 --> 00:15:22.340 from where I was born. 00:15:22.340 --> 00:15:30.540 So I'm one of the ancestors, Australopithecus africanus-- 00:15:30.540 --> 00:15:32.490 that's 400 million years ago. 00:15:35.160 --> 00:15:39.490 Cities have only been going for 20,000. 00:15:39.490 --> 00:15:43.410 What fraction of 400 million is 20,000? 00:15:43.410 --> 00:15:45.990 It's a tiny percentage. 00:15:45.990 --> 00:15:49.600 Could somebody calculate it? 00:15:49.600 --> 00:15:54.158 20,000 out of 400 million-- 00:15:54.158 --> 00:15:54.825 what percentage? 00:15:54.825 --> 00:15:57.994 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] is one in 200. 00:15:57.994 --> 00:15:58.770 [INAUDIBLE] 00:15:58.770 --> 00:15:59.770 JULIAN BEINART: It's 5%. 00:15:59.770 --> 00:16:01.120 AUDIENCE: 0.5%. 00:16:01.120 --> 00:16:02.960 JULIAN BEINART: 0.5%. 00:16:02.960 --> 00:16:03.460 Yeah. 00:16:06.060 --> 00:16:08.700 I conclude from that we've not even 00:16:08.700 --> 00:16:12.570 started sorting out urbanism. 00:16:12.570 --> 00:16:13.920 We've got a long way to go. 00:16:13.920 --> 00:16:17.010 That should satisfy all of you who are young enough 00:16:17.010 --> 00:16:20.220 to rejoice in the finding. 00:16:27.600 --> 00:16:32.120 Tribalism is difficult-- 00:16:32.120 --> 00:16:34.730 AUDIENCE: How much do you think that urbanism 00:16:34.730 --> 00:16:38.628 will attain a sort of maturity or homeostasis 00:16:38.628 --> 00:16:40.420 because of the population rather than time? 00:16:43.070 --> 00:16:46.490 JULIAN BEINART: Population projection is uncertain. 00:16:46.490 --> 00:16:51.620 I'm going to read you a number of quotes from various sources 00:16:51.620 --> 00:16:52.990 about this phenomenon. 00:16:55.850 --> 00:17:01.982 The one that I find most dramatic touches 00:17:01.982 --> 00:17:03.065 on what you've just asked. 00:17:12.230 --> 00:17:14.660 "Urbanization in developing countries 00:17:14.660 --> 00:17:18.770 may be the single greatest change in this century. 00:17:18.770 --> 00:17:21.950 It is projected that developing countries will triple 00:17:21.950 --> 00:17:28.160 their built-up urban area between 2000 and 2030 00:17:28.160 --> 00:17:34.490 from 200,000 square kilometers to 600,000 square kilometers. 00:17:34.490 --> 00:17:38.570 These added 400 square kilometers constructed 00:17:38.570 --> 00:17:42.830 in just 30 years equal the world's built-up urban area 00:17:42.830 --> 00:17:45.176 in 2000. 00:17:45.176 --> 00:17:48.500 One could say humans are building a whole new world 00:17:48.500 --> 00:17:53.090 at about 10 times the speed in countries with severe resource 00:17:53.090 --> 00:17:54.170 constraints-- 00:17:54.170 --> 00:17:58.735 natural, fiscal, administrative, and technical." 00:17:58.735 --> 00:18:05.640 Now, if this is correct, it's impossible. 00:18:05.640 --> 00:18:09.000 Even China cannot build at this speed, 00:18:09.000 --> 00:18:12.990 nor does the developing world, by its nature, 00:18:12.990 --> 00:18:15.410 have all of the resources to do it. 00:18:23.700 --> 00:18:28.090 Slum population in the world is expected-- 00:18:28.090 --> 00:18:31.920 is now stated at about 1 billion people 00:18:31.920 --> 00:18:35.540 and is stated to double within the next 25 years. 00:18:46.410 --> 00:18:51.080 Let me just-- perhaps I should have gone through some 00:18:51.080 --> 00:18:54.100 of this material with you. 00:18:54.100 --> 00:18:55.280 I always forget. 00:19:12.530 --> 00:19:15.380 The world's largest cities is one 00:19:15.380 --> 00:19:25.660 of the indices of not very much other than population size. 00:19:25.660 --> 00:19:30.580 New York was the largest city in the world in 1950. 00:19:30.580 --> 00:19:32.290 It's now sixth. 00:19:32.290 --> 00:19:35.980 That's in the year 2000. 00:19:35.980 --> 00:19:40.120 Of course, this is assuming that these measurements 00:19:40.120 --> 00:19:42.010 are constant. 00:19:42.010 --> 00:19:44.440 What constitutes New York I don't know. 00:19:44.440 --> 00:19:48.170 As far as the standard metropolitan area, 00:19:48.170 --> 00:19:54.440 I don't know how that compares to Kolkata's area. 00:19:54.440 --> 00:19:58.970 But you can see the major European cities, New York, 00:19:58.970 --> 00:20:13.750 London, Rhine-Ruhr, Paris, Chicago, 00:20:13.750 --> 00:20:21.340 have diminished in relative size as the growth of cities has 00:20:21.340 --> 00:20:25.030 taken place in Latin America and Asia-- 00:20:25.030 --> 00:20:28.720 not yet significantly in Africa-- 00:20:28.720 --> 00:20:30.250 certainly very large cities. 00:20:42.980 --> 00:20:46.750 The second two pages are just cuttings from newspapers. 00:20:50.430 --> 00:20:55.320 We saw John Snow's 1854 discovery 00:20:55.320 --> 00:21:00.540 that cholera was waterborne and not miasmic in nature. 00:21:00.540 --> 00:21:05.490 Here you see cholera now being used as an index 00:21:05.490 --> 00:21:10.650 to determine 19th century conditions. 00:21:10.650 --> 00:21:13.560 Feeding on 19th century conditions cholera, 00:21:13.560 --> 00:21:15.511 spreads in Latin America. 00:21:20.330 --> 00:21:24.050 Another phenomenon from this world, "A Lovely Madness-- 00:21:24.050 --> 00:21:27.920 Argentina Builds New Capital in Patagonia." 00:21:27.920 --> 00:21:30.980 They didn't build the capital, but they proposed 00:21:30.980 --> 00:21:33.920 building a new capital. 00:21:33.920 --> 00:21:43.410 One of the urbanistic outcomes of large population growth 00:21:43.410 --> 00:21:46.470 and independence has been the notion 00:21:46.470 --> 00:21:51.300 that you need to establish your status through the building 00:21:51.300 --> 00:21:52.060 of a new capital. 00:21:56.750 --> 00:22:00.170 These have become famous icons in the world-- 00:22:00.170 --> 00:22:10.030 Brasilia, par excellence, but less significantly, 00:22:10.030 --> 00:22:14.560 Chandigarh, in the Punjab, after the division 00:22:14.560 --> 00:22:20.130 between Pakistan and India left the Punjab without a capital. 00:22:22.835 --> 00:22:23.933 AUDIENCE: Islamabad. 00:22:23.933 --> 00:22:24.850 JULIAN BEINART: Sorry? 00:22:24.850 --> 00:22:26.580 AUDIENCE: Islamabad in Pakistan. 00:22:26.580 --> 00:22:29.220 JULIAN BEINART: Islamabad in Pakistan, yes-- 00:22:29.220 --> 00:22:34.320 but the Indian part of what remains of the Punjab. 00:22:37.840 --> 00:22:44.080 I did some work on Chandigarh with Charles Correa. 00:22:44.080 --> 00:22:50.620 We published a piece in a book we edited on Chandigarh, 00:22:50.620 --> 00:22:52.225 published in India in English. 00:22:56.470 --> 00:22:58.630 The story of Chandigarh is very much 00:22:58.630 --> 00:23:05.290 the story of trying to find an appropriate form 00:23:05.290 --> 00:23:10.570 for a post-colonial post-native city. 00:23:14.540 --> 00:23:16.640 Gandhi didn't leave any instructions 00:23:16.640 --> 00:23:18.676 on how to build cities. 00:23:18.676 --> 00:23:21.260 Neither did Marx. 00:23:21.260 --> 00:23:26.540 The great minds of social change didn't take cities 00:23:26.540 --> 00:23:27.950 into account. 00:23:27.950 --> 00:23:31.850 Nor Sydney were they building belaboring questions 00:23:31.850 --> 00:23:34.130 of architectural form-- 00:23:34.130 --> 00:23:38.650 they were too busy doing other things. 00:23:38.650 --> 00:23:47.440 Chandigarh emerged as a complex mindset somewhere 00:23:47.440 --> 00:23:56.650 between Indian leaders imagining India to be on a progress 00:23:56.650 --> 00:24:01.330 transect towards modernism. 00:24:01.330 --> 00:24:05.890 There, after all, were few Indian architects old enough 00:24:05.890 --> 00:24:10.960 to be practicing significantly at the time. 00:24:10.960 --> 00:24:14.590 They chose British architects, who 00:24:14.590 --> 00:24:18.170 in turn said they weren't capable of doing the work 00:24:18.170 --> 00:24:21.790 and recommended a French architect by the name of Le 00:24:21.790 --> 00:24:27.880 Corbusier, who came to India, traveled around India, 00:24:27.880 --> 00:24:33.880 and decided on a sectoral plan, which 00:24:33.880 --> 00:24:38.980 he had played with in Bogota before coming to India, 00:24:38.980 --> 00:24:43.630 without telling anybody, and evolved 00:24:43.630 --> 00:24:52.570 a plan which is based on a series of five highway systems, 00:24:52.570 --> 00:24:56.540 although there were no cars in India at the time. 00:24:56.540 --> 00:25:01.060 I checked on the car population of India in 1950. 00:25:01.060 --> 00:25:06.805 It was close to zero, except for a few thousand cars. 00:25:12.000 --> 00:25:20.710 Chandigarh also didn't look into the future 00:25:20.710 --> 00:25:28.930 as far as how people would develop from a designed point. 00:25:32.860 --> 00:25:38.170 First of all, we have no way of dealing yet 00:25:38.170 --> 00:25:41.780 with immigration as a result of building an economic growth 00:25:41.780 --> 00:25:42.280 point. 00:25:44.962 --> 00:25:48.550 There's an informal sector of Chandigarh-- 00:25:48.550 --> 00:25:52.420 both in Chandigarh and in the neighboring towns-- 00:25:52.420 --> 00:25:54.400 which outnumbers Chandigarh now. 00:25:57.040 --> 00:25:59.335 Land control is weak. 00:26:02.860 --> 00:26:08.270 Although the national government superintends over Chandigarh, 00:26:08.270 --> 00:26:14.080 it sells land illegally north of the Capitol Complex 00:26:14.080 --> 00:26:18.340 and in parts of the famous drawings of Corbusier 00:26:18.340 --> 00:26:20.605 in the Himalayas in the distance. 00:26:24.090 --> 00:26:26.480 I can go on at length about Chandigarh. 00:26:30.330 --> 00:26:35.130 There is no attempt to look at the genius of Indian urbanism, 00:26:35.130 --> 00:26:37.440 native Indian urbanism. 00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:41.760 Nobody looked at Jaipur and tried to make sense of Jaipur. 00:26:41.760 --> 00:26:45.690 Everything was to be, in the grasp of modernism, 00:26:45.690 --> 00:26:48.360 a modern project. 00:26:48.360 --> 00:26:51.870 At least Louis Kahn, when he went to build in Dhaka, 00:26:51.870 --> 00:26:57.380 looked at the way bricklayers laid bricks and built 00:26:57.380 --> 00:27:02.430 horizontal stripes in relation to the terraces that 00:27:02.430 --> 00:27:03.890 were finished each day. 00:27:08.400 --> 00:27:17.850 Chandigarh is now a center which is historic in nature, much 00:27:17.850 --> 00:27:23.550 like an Italian hill town, and a periphery, which is a chaotic, 00:27:23.550 --> 00:27:24.360 apparently. 00:27:26.940 --> 00:27:31.560 It's two cities-- the one envisioned 00:27:31.560 --> 00:27:40.890 by a single man and his cousin, the other 00:27:40.890 --> 00:27:47.760 built by the free will allowed. 00:27:47.760 --> 00:27:53.250 Some of Corbusier's regulations still stand today. 00:27:53.250 --> 00:27:58.320 They are meaningless in relation to a bicycle shack 00:27:58.320 --> 00:27:59.490 on the periphery. 00:28:03.620 --> 00:28:07.280 Anyway, that's so much for Chandigarh. 00:28:07.280 --> 00:28:14.390 Chandigarh will stand as an emblem of India's attempt 00:28:14.390 --> 00:28:17.450 to calibrate itself. 00:28:17.450 --> 00:28:21.080 And in that sense, one should feel proud of it. 00:28:21.080 --> 00:28:23.030 It could have been better. 00:28:23.030 --> 00:28:27.020 A generation later, some Indian architects 00:28:27.020 --> 00:28:28.390 would have done the same thing. 00:28:31.300 --> 00:28:33.140 There are buildings that are going 00:28:33.140 --> 00:28:35.360 to stand for a long time-- 00:28:35.360 --> 00:28:39.240 the law courts, for instance-- 00:28:39.240 --> 00:28:46.360 whereas the governor's palace was never built, leaving the-- 00:28:46.360 --> 00:28:50.870 oh, I'm getting into too much detail. 00:28:50.870 --> 00:28:55.040 You know Chandigarh, or you should know it well. 00:29:07.290 --> 00:29:12.870 Next page is the page of optimism from a Toronto 00:29:12.870 --> 00:29:16.290 newspaper arguing that things are 00:29:16.290 --> 00:29:17.790 going very well in the world-- 00:29:21.030 --> 00:29:31.810 sharing graphs of decline in warfare; falling fertility-- 00:29:36.010 --> 00:29:42.380 not in the poorest countries, but in inhabited countries; 00:29:42.380 --> 00:29:45.932 change in life expectancy rising everywhere-- 00:29:49.240 --> 00:29:55.800 sub-Saharan Africa, they're still under 50; 00:29:55.800 --> 00:29:59.830 the environment shows an enormous drop in the production 00:29:59.830 --> 00:30:01.300 of chlorofluorocarbons. 00:30:05.570 --> 00:30:18.360 At best, the Third World does fairly well-- 00:30:21.470 --> 00:30:22.210 and so on. 00:30:28.680 --> 00:30:32.055 Next page gives a projected number 00:30:32.055 --> 00:30:35.430 of slum dwellers by region. 00:30:45.630 --> 00:30:51.390 Next page shows projections for world population-- 00:30:51.390 --> 00:31:03.960 population growth losing 25% in Eastern Europe. 00:31:03.960 --> 00:31:07.020 As you go from east to west in Europe, 00:31:07.020 --> 00:31:12.140 population growth loses drastically 00:31:12.140 --> 00:31:17.320 to the time we get to England, where it's relatively stable-- 00:31:17.320 --> 00:31:23.970 Northern Europe, Western Europe losing 0.2%. 00:31:23.970 --> 00:31:31.370 At the same time, the major population growth in the United 00:31:31.370 --> 00:31:38.210 States, plus 33%, is due to migration more 00:31:38.210 --> 00:31:41.840 than anything else. 00:31:41.840 --> 00:31:48.030 The worst conditions are in Western Africa, plus 127%-- 00:31:48.030 --> 00:32:01.530 122%; middle Africa, plus 175%; South Central Asia, plus 55%; 00:32:01.530 --> 00:32:08.475 Western Asia, plus 79%; Japan, minus 17%. 00:32:17.800 --> 00:32:21.190 People migrate to cities because there's a better chance 00:32:21.190 --> 00:32:23.030 in life than where they are. 00:32:23.030 --> 00:32:26.200 They're not dumb. 00:32:26.200 --> 00:32:30.550 The notion that people are animals and behave foolishly 00:32:30.550 --> 00:32:34.600 in going to cities is a foolish proposition. 00:32:34.600 --> 00:32:39.070 The life lottery is large in cities. 00:32:39.070 --> 00:32:41.770 It's always been that way. 00:32:41.770 --> 00:32:45.860 Your daughter can go to school and marry a rich man. 00:32:45.860 --> 00:32:49.900 It's unlikely to happen in a village. 00:32:49.900 --> 00:32:53.170 There's a sanctity numbers which you cannot deny. 00:32:56.500 --> 00:33:03.880 Number two-- staying in the rural areas is no blessing. 00:33:03.880 --> 00:33:09.400 If only the rural areas is what our romantic vision of nature 00:33:09.400 --> 00:33:11.470 suggests-- 00:33:11.470 --> 00:33:17.710 beautiful landscape, low involvement in work, 00:33:17.710 --> 00:33:23.050 sitting on the porch, drinking rum at sundown, 00:33:23.050 --> 00:33:25.960 all images from the colonial tourist world. 00:33:28.760 --> 00:33:33.490 I grew up in South Africa with Afrikaans literature 00:33:33.490 --> 00:33:36.490 being filled with images of this kind-- 00:33:36.490 --> 00:33:41.200 farmers sitting benightedly on their porch 00:33:41.200 --> 00:33:45.430 whilst their black laborers slaved away in the distance. 00:33:45.430 --> 00:33:50.740 And the young daughter who'd gone to the city 00:33:50.740 --> 00:33:53.930 comes back with an illegitimate child, 00:33:53.930 --> 00:33:57.010 and they all mourn the fact that the country's 00:33:57.010 --> 00:34:00.401 been going to the dogs. 00:34:00.401 --> 00:34:02.810 [LAUGHTER] 00:34:02.810 --> 00:34:12.940 There's no real-- much though even the Russians 00:34:12.940 --> 00:34:20.290 and many ideologies sanctified the country as well 00:34:20.290 --> 00:34:22.150 as the city. 00:34:22.150 --> 00:34:24.699 The Communist Manifesto says, develop 00:34:24.699 --> 00:34:27.429 the country and the city. 00:34:27.429 --> 00:34:30.230 The fact is that nobody has really effectively developed 00:34:30.230 --> 00:34:30.730 the country. 00:34:34.330 --> 00:34:37.969 The United States is producing more food 00:34:37.969 --> 00:34:41.290 on 7% of the agricultural population 00:34:41.290 --> 00:34:44.080 than it started with. 00:34:44.080 --> 00:34:46.010 And that's not the correct statistic. 00:34:46.010 --> 00:34:50.870 I haven't got the statistic in front of me, 00:34:50.870 --> 00:34:53.150 but it's something like that. 00:34:53.150 --> 00:34:55.550 In South Africa since apartheid, there's 00:34:55.550 --> 00:34:59.450 been enormous attempts to increase 00:34:59.450 --> 00:35:03.110 the amount of agricultural land owned by Black people. 00:35:03.110 --> 00:35:05.060 I think they still own less than 20%. 00:35:09.920 --> 00:35:18.060 Brutal land reform, such as by Mr. Mugabe in Rhodesia-- 00:35:18.060 --> 00:35:23.420 not Rhodesia, Zimbabwe-- has produced 00:35:23.420 --> 00:35:26.690 appalling economic results. 00:35:26.690 --> 00:35:29.990 We haven't found a formula for making 00:35:29.990 --> 00:35:37.070 the land productive outside of heavy technology 00:35:37.070 --> 00:35:43.850 or corporate production, which the United States leads 00:35:43.850 --> 00:35:44.630 the world in. 00:35:50.560 --> 00:35:55.840 There are signs of migration from rural to city 00:35:55.840 --> 00:36:02.530 in India suggesting that people do both-- 00:36:02.530 --> 00:36:05.440 have part of their families in the country 00:36:05.440 --> 00:36:10.405 and work in the city and migrate selectively between them. 00:36:10.405 --> 00:36:15.130 These are an intelligent form of migration. 00:36:15.130 --> 00:36:18.802 But it's not yet considerably large. 00:36:21.460 --> 00:36:29.810 So whereas the British, by the Enclosure of the Commons Act, 00:36:29.810 --> 00:36:34.340 took land away from poor people, forced them into cities, 00:36:34.340 --> 00:36:37.760 today the process is that nobody is taking the land away 00:36:37.760 --> 00:36:40.430 from you, except there's nothing to do on it. 00:36:43.910 --> 00:36:49.640 Migration is not a new phenomenon. 00:36:49.640 --> 00:36:52.130 We started off as migrants. 00:36:52.130 --> 00:36:54.455 We settled after 400 million years-- 00:36:56.960 --> 00:36:58.968 took a long time to settle. 00:36:58.968 --> 00:37:00.402 [LAUGHTER] 00:37:02.320 --> 00:37:09.600 We've only settled for 20,000 years, at best. 00:37:09.600 --> 00:37:12.870 But the rural parts of the world are becoming 00:37:12.870 --> 00:37:18.130 more desolate, less inhabited. 00:37:18.130 --> 00:37:23.200 The problem with Central Africa and the highest migration rates 00:37:23.200 --> 00:37:25.450 is a combination of high fertility 00:37:25.450 --> 00:37:29.920 rates and urbanization. 00:37:29.920 --> 00:37:34.960 You put the two together, and you have a lethal combination. 00:37:38.610 --> 00:37:41.290 AUDIENCE: Aren't there are also factors of desertification, 00:37:41.290 --> 00:37:43.762 desertification a lot of agricultural land, 00:37:43.762 --> 00:37:46.760 and that's part of that migration? 00:37:50.330 --> 00:37:52.700 JULIAN BEINART: It depends where you are. 00:37:52.700 --> 00:37:56.510 I mean, in Israel, agricultural land is so valuable. 00:37:56.510 --> 00:37:59.240 In Cuba, agricultural is so valuable 00:37:59.240 --> 00:38:01.670 because the territory is so small. 00:38:01.670 --> 00:38:06.980 In this country, one flies over agricultural land endlessly. 00:38:06.980 --> 00:38:10.190 And there's no pressure of densification. 00:38:10.190 --> 00:38:11.373 AUDIENCE: Desertification. 00:38:11.373 --> 00:38:12.290 JULIAN BEINART: Sorry? 00:38:12.290 --> 00:38:12.920 AUDIENCE: Desert. 00:38:12.920 --> 00:38:14.730 JULIAN BEINART: (LAUGHING) Oh, sorry, I thought densification. 00:38:14.730 --> 00:38:15.255 [LAUGHTER] 00:38:15.255 --> 00:38:16.130 AUDIENCE: No, no, no. 00:38:16.130 --> 00:38:17.330 JULIAN BEINART: Oh, desert. 00:38:17.330 --> 00:38:22.940 Yes, the enormous ecological problems. 00:38:22.940 --> 00:38:27.060 Untended land tends to get into no good 00:38:27.060 --> 00:38:28.620 when it's been tended already. 00:38:33.540 --> 00:38:38.850 But ecologists know so much more about this now. 00:38:38.850 --> 00:38:41.820 The knowledge of what to do about dammed rivers, 00:38:41.820 --> 00:38:46.470 and undamming rivers, letting them travel freely 00:38:46.470 --> 00:38:49.515 is a major new ecological thrust. 00:38:55.590 --> 00:39:08.480 Population growth is not held to be a good religious thing. 00:39:08.480 --> 00:39:11.300 For the Catholics, contraception is 00:39:11.300 --> 00:39:16.790 forbidden as it tries to convince the world that it 00:39:16.790 --> 00:39:21.320 has an Argentinian pope who's a man who 00:39:21.320 --> 00:39:23.780 stood up against the military. 00:39:23.780 --> 00:39:26.012 I'm not sure about that, either. 00:39:26.012 --> 00:39:27.620 [LAUGHTER] 00:39:27.620 --> 00:39:34.080 But whether that's true or not, modern man though he is, 00:39:34.080 --> 00:39:36.605 he still believes in the sanctity of life. 00:39:45.100 --> 00:39:49.060 So a new world must look to being 00:39:49.060 --> 00:39:51.755 able to cope with poverty at a mass scale-- 00:39:55.630 --> 00:39:58.070 urbanized poverty, not rural poverty. 00:39:58.070 --> 00:40:00.830 Although, rural poverty will remain a phenomena. 00:40:03.554 --> 00:40:10.160 There are people who will remain on the farm, 00:40:10.160 --> 00:40:12.470 remain in small villages. 00:40:12.470 --> 00:40:15.440 But they won't be a significant part of the population. 00:40:20.800 --> 00:40:23.730 That's the sad part. 00:40:23.730 --> 00:40:31.100 I'm just going to read you a few figures from these texts. 00:40:31.100 --> 00:40:38.020 The two best graphic texts are the exhibition book 00:40:38.020 --> 00:40:41.170 from the Cooper Hewitt exhibition at the United 00:40:41.170 --> 00:40:43.900 Nations last year. 00:40:43.900 --> 00:40:45.600 You should have seen the exhibition. 00:40:48.310 --> 00:40:51.460 I had a little bit to do with it-- 00:40:51.460 --> 00:40:55.990 not saying so because I want to be proud. 00:40:55.990 --> 00:40:59.890 And the book of the Rockefeller Foundation, 00:40:59.890 --> 00:41:02.020 Century of the City-- 00:41:02.020 --> 00:41:04.675 I refer to both of these in your reading. 00:41:04.675 --> 00:41:08.800 They're the two best recent publications. 00:41:08.800 --> 00:41:13.630 I'm just going to quote here and there from them. 00:41:13.630 --> 00:41:15.865 Many of them are amped up about figures. 00:41:23.020 --> 00:41:25.690 "In a report on the future economy of India, 00:41:25.690 --> 00:41:29.470 Goldman Sachs projects that 31 villagers 00:41:29.470 --> 00:41:33.820 will continue to arrive in an Indian city every minute 00:41:33.820 --> 00:41:36.640 over the next 43 years-- 00:41:36.640 --> 00:41:38.890 700 million people in all." 00:41:42.166 --> 00:41:47.660 Now, how do you incubate 700 million people, 00:41:47.660 --> 00:41:51.520 which is more than twice the population of the United 00:41:51.520 --> 00:41:54.670 States, over 43 years? 00:41:54.670 --> 00:41:56.170 We'll see. 00:41:56.170 --> 00:41:57.760 I won't be around to watch. 00:42:09.890 --> 00:42:13.250 Joel Cohen of Columbia University-- 00:42:13.250 --> 00:42:16.910 "The world will have to build one city of one million people 00:42:16.910 --> 00:42:21.470 every five days for the next 42 years 00:42:21.470 --> 00:42:25.040 to accommodate the massive rural-to-city migration." 00:42:27.870 --> 00:42:32.070 One city of one million every five days-- 00:42:32.070 --> 00:42:34.590 a lot of work to do. 00:42:34.590 --> 00:42:39.060 I'd be very happy in your profession. 00:42:39.060 --> 00:42:46.710 You're going to be deluged by professional responsibilities. 00:42:58.540 --> 00:43:02.950 It goes on to talk about climate change. 00:43:02.950 --> 00:43:06.010 60% of the world's cities are within walking 00:43:06.010 --> 00:43:07.270 distance of the sea. 00:43:15.420 --> 00:43:20.370 "The coastal provinces of China experienced a net in-migration 00:43:20.370 --> 00:43:22.950 of 17 million people in just the five 00:43:22.950 --> 00:43:28.080 years between 1995 and 2000. 00:43:28.080 --> 00:43:32.115 African-- half of those cities, including Lagos 00:43:32.115 --> 00:43:35.340 and [INAUDIBLE]"--"-- they've shifted to Africa-- 00:43:35.340 --> 00:43:38.130 "are in the low-elevation coastal. 00:43:38.130 --> 00:43:41.250 Much of Mumbai, India, home to the largest slum 00:43:41.250 --> 00:43:48.420 settlement in the world, is built essentially on landfill-- 00:43:48.420 --> 00:43:52.050 city is a continuing target for weather disasters." 00:43:57.750 --> 00:44:00.810 We'll look, in a minute, at a few positives. 00:44:17.590 --> 00:44:21.100 "Almost half the global population lives on less than 00:44:21.100 --> 00:44:24.490 $2.50 a day. 00:44:24.490 --> 00:44:27.970 That is more than 3 billion people, almost all 00:44:27.970 --> 00:44:31.230 in developing countries. 00:44:31.230 --> 00:44:35.110 Even more shocking, the proportion of people below 00:44:35.110 --> 00:44:39.520 the $2.50 per day poverty line has remained more or less 00:44:39.520 --> 00:44:45.880 constant between 1981 and 2005. 00:44:45.880 --> 00:44:48.730 According to the World Bank, the richest 20% 00:44:48.730 --> 00:44:51.070 of the world's population accounts 00:44:51.070 --> 00:44:54.250 for 76% of all consumption. 00:44:54.250 --> 00:44:57.500 The bottom 40% account for only 1.5%." 00:45:28.990 --> 00:45:36.130 I want you to look at some cases of optimism. 00:45:36.130 --> 00:45:40.240 These are small situations which have 00:45:40.240 --> 00:45:47.260 improved through the energy of workers themselves. 00:45:47.260 --> 00:45:52.300 Before that, this fits into the new paradigm, 00:45:52.300 --> 00:45:58.330 which has emerged over the last few years, in which theorists 00:45:58.330 --> 00:46:01.300 of developing countries and activists 00:46:01.300 --> 00:46:05.980 have argued that the only resource that people have 00:46:05.980 --> 00:46:11.830 is themselves, that what we call sweat equity or human labor 00:46:11.830 --> 00:46:18.610 or adapted human intelligence is all that people have. 00:46:18.610 --> 00:46:22.420 So international organizations, like Slum Dwellers 00:46:22.420 --> 00:46:25.960 International or the various regional branches 00:46:25.960 --> 00:46:33.520 in India and in Thailand and so on 00:46:33.520 --> 00:46:38.170 have the ambition to not sit around and wait 00:46:38.170 --> 00:46:44.530 for charity or benevolent dictatorship or any 00:46:44.530 --> 00:46:47.890 of the other modalities, but to harness, 00:46:47.890 --> 00:46:54.670 to use their intelligence and their capacity as human beings 00:46:54.670 --> 00:46:56.190 to do something about it. 00:47:00.870 --> 00:47:03.560 The problem with all of this-- 00:47:03.560 --> 00:47:04.427 yep? 00:47:04.427 --> 00:47:08.090 AUDIENCE: Can I read a quote from [INAUDIBLE] 00:47:08.090 --> 00:47:10.380 JULIAN BEINART: Sorry, I can't hear. 00:47:10.380 --> 00:47:12.960 AUDIENCE: Can I read a quote from one of the papers 00:47:12.960 --> 00:47:14.228 that I used for my paper-- 00:47:14.228 --> 00:47:15.395 JULIAN BEINART: Yes, please. 00:47:15.395 --> 00:47:16.562 AUDIENCE: --that is related? 00:47:16.562 --> 00:47:18.470 JULIAN BEINART: Please, somebody talk. 00:47:18.470 --> 00:47:20.223 I'm tired of talking. 00:47:20.223 --> 00:47:24.790 AUDIENCE: OK, it is in reference of the case 00:47:24.790 --> 00:47:29.670 of the slum [INAUDIBLE] in the South African Cape 00:47:29.670 --> 00:47:31.018 Town, Khayelitsha. 00:47:31.018 --> 00:47:32.435 JULIAN BEINART: Khayelitsha, yeah. 00:47:32.435 --> 00:47:33.650 AUDIENCE: Yeah, Khayelitsha. 00:47:33.650 --> 00:47:39.864 So this person was the director of development services. 00:47:39.864 --> 00:47:44.350 [INAUDIBLE] Talked a little [INAUDIBLE] 00:47:44.350 --> 00:47:45.680 this paper about the people. 00:47:45.680 --> 00:47:48.760 He says, talking in reference [INAUDIBLE] 00:47:48.760 --> 00:47:50.672 JULIAN BEINART: Yeah, just read us the quote. 00:47:50.672 --> 00:47:51.820 AUDIENCE: All right. 00:47:51.820 --> 00:47:54.160 "If we do not start immediately with meeting 00:47:54.160 --> 00:47:55.940 the local communities' most urgent needs, 00:47:55.940 --> 00:47:58.450 we are going to lose our legitimacy 00:47:58.450 --> 00:48:00.400 as a public administration. 00:48:00.400 --> 00:48:03.550 And if we do not do it in the most participatory way 00:48:03.550 --> 00:48:06.220 possible," and this is the most important part, 00:48:06.220 --> 00:48:09.400 "we will waste the most important capital we have, 00:48:09.400 --> 00:48:11.410 the dedication of the people themselves 00:48:11.410 --> 00:48:13.630 and their will for change." 00:48:13.630 --> 00:48:15.280 JULIAN BEINART: Good. 00:48:15.280 --> 00:48:20.500 I think one of the most impressive examples so far has 00:48:20.500 --> 00:48:26.140 been the 300,000-person suburb of Sao Paulo, 00:48:26.140 --> 00:48:32.710 17 kilometers from the center of Sao Paulo, called Diadema. 00:48:32.710 --> 00:48:35.290 Fortunately, they've published a book called 00:48:35.290 --> 00:48:38.650 Diadema and the Informal City. 00:48:38.650 --> 00:48:40.870 I don't know-- I don't think the library has 00:48:40.870 --> 00:48:44.390 a copy of this book. 00:48:44.390 --> 00:48:54.790 It's a detailed case study of how Diadema went about 00:48:54.790 --> 00:49:01.350 from being one of the most violent cities in Latin 00:49:01.350 --> 00:49:04.970 America, having one of the highest crime rates, 00:49:04.970 --> 00:49:09.270 have having one of the lowest educational rates, 00:49:09.270 --> 00:49:17.020 being one of the worst slums in Latin America, to being, 00:49:17.020 --> 00:49:21.420 now, a town which attracts industry, 00:49:21.420 --> 00:49:24.300 has its first shopping mall. 00:49:24.300 --> 00:49:43.110 And it's a story of workers galvanizing into groups, 00:49:43.110 --> 00:49:48.570 exhibiting their power in the election of city officials, 00:49:48.570 --> 00:49:54.060 forcing assistive procedure, and to create in poor people 00:49:54.060 --> 00:49:58.950 a sense of trust by making things happen in a very 00:49:58.950 --> 00:50:01.020 slow but deliberate way-- 00:50:01.020 --> 00:50:04.380 paving a street, for instance-- 00:50:04.380 --> 00:50:10.020 slowly building up in its dimensions until it 00:50:10.020 --> 00:50:15.390 can tackle major issues, such as national financial 00:50:15.390 --> 00:50:17.220 intervention. 00:50:17.220 --> 00:50:21.910 They go back and forth with the military over a period of time. 00:50:21.910 --> 00:50:24.690 Then Lula gets elected president. 00:50:24.690 --> 00:50:26.700 He's very sympathetic. 00:50:26.700 --> 00:50:34.170 And they have enough evidence to show that they're 00:50:34.170 --> 00:50:35.880 worth investing in. 00:50:35.880 --> 00:50:41.370 And slowly, infant mortality rates decline, all of this 00:50:41.370 --> 00:50:41.940 happens. 00:50:41.940 --> 00:50:46.440 New housing is built. Older housing is renewed. 00:50:46.440 --> 00:50:50.360 People are part of a process which-- 00:50:50.360 --> 00:50:57.140 there's teaching in schools about crime. 00:50:57.140 --> 00:51:00.260 Guns are taken away at school. 00:51:00.260 --> 00:51:03.950 I mean, a whole network of things 00:51:03.950 --> 00:51:08.450 happened which probably characterize a good town. 00:51:08.450 --> 00:51:11.390 And they know they're very proud of the fact 00:51:11.390 --> 00:51:16.250 that they've emerged from the worst conditions of slumness, 00:51:16.250 --> 00:51:21.170 slumhood, to being a-- 00:51:21.170 --> 00:51:25.550 along the way were a couple of themes. 00:51:25.550 --> 00:51:31.700 Trust-- poor people don't easily have trust. 00:51:31.700 --> 00:51:34.890 They've never been brought up to trust anybody 00:51:34.890 --> 00:51:42.090 except some intimate relationship, if they're lucky. 00:51:42.090 --> 00:51:44.880 They don't trust the government. 00:51:44.880 --> 00:51:49.500 Our government bypasses them almost completely. 00:51:49.500 --> 00:51:54.280 They have no prospects that anybody 00:51:54.280 --> 00:51:57.250 is going to be able to change the system. 00:51:57.250 --> 00:52:00.670 Slowly, the system does change. 00:52:00.670 --> 00:52:07.210 And a generation of people grow up who start believing. 00:52:10.020 --> 00:52:14.850 All of this is true in the other case in the reading, which 00:52:14.850 --> 00:52:22.320 I took because it's a man who deals with housing 00:52:22.320 --> 00:52:28.230 finance in Bangkok, who writes very explicitly about how he 00:52:28.230 --> 00:52:33.660 changed his method of working by allowing people to take part 00:52:33.660 --> 00:52:36.390 and using [INAUDIBLE],, teaching people 00:52:36.390 --> 00:52:39.630 how to deal with their money. 00:52:39.630 --> 00:52:44.220 Learning how to deal with money is something to be learned. 00:52:44.220 --> 00:52:45.960 Nobody ever taught me. 00:52:45.960 --> 00:52:47.160 I still don't know. 00:52:50.630 --> 00:52:52.340 It's extraordinary. 00:52:52.340 --> 00:52:54.320 You arrive in a modern world. 00:52:54.320 --> 00:52:56.540 You've got to buy a house. 00:52:56.540 --> 00:52:59.000 Your parents were too old to-- 00:52:59.000 --> 00:53:03.881 uneducated to-- in this kind of game. 00:53:03.881 --> 00:53:07.385 Where do you learn? 00:53:07.385 --> 00:53:10.916 Where is the social instruction? 00:53:10.916 --> 00:53:13.480 This is in a middle class situation. 00:53:16.140 --> 00:53:19.570 When my son bought an apartment in New York, 00:53:19.570 --> 00:53:24.030 he was lucky to have a wife who is an accountant. 00:53:24.030 --> 00:53:27.480 So he could remain being a theorist 00:53:27.480 --> 00:53:31.020 while his wife took care of all the financial stuff. 00:53:31.020 --> 00:53:32.930 It's a wonderful combination. 00:53:32.930 --> 00:53:36.860 But not many people are lucky to be married to accountants. 00:53:44.220 --> 00:53:49.770 So that piece deals with the enormous capacity 00:53:49.770 --> 00:53:56.200 for microfinance to generate both a sense of trust. 00:53:56.200 --> 00:53:58.660 It's analogous to the invention of the mortgage 00:53:58.660 --> 00:54:02.130 system in England in 1830. 00:54:02.130 --> 00:54:06.640 The mortgage system took the business of borrowing money 00:54:06.640 --> 00:54:12.040 away from a crooked landowner person, put it 00:54:12.040 --> 00:54:14.590 in the hands of a bank. 00:54:14.590 --> 00:54:18.970 A bank may crook, but it has to crook on a very much 00:54:18.970 --> 00:54:21.100 larger scale than you. 00:54:24.140 --> 00:54:31.100 And the mortgage system enabled trust 00:54:31.100 --> 00:54:34.520 in the purchase of housing in a way 00:54:34.520 --> 00:54:37.030 that had never existed before. 00:54:37.030 --> 00:54:40.280 You were always at the behest of your landlord. 00:54:44.620 --> 00:54:47.620 You get these stories of La Boheme 00:54:47.620 --> 00:54:52.540 and La Traviata in Paris, artists 00:54:52.540 --> 00:54:58.270 living in the top floor of a Haussmann Boulevard house 00:54:58.270 --> 00:55:01.300 and the knock on the door, saying 00:55:01.300 --> 00:55:04.540 haven't paid your rent for the last few months. 00:55:04.540 --> 00:55:06.075 What are you going to do? 00:55:06.075 --> 00:55:08.470 And you're starving of tuberculosis. 00:55:10.990 --> 00:55:16.320 So that image is no longer present, or not largely present 00:55:16.320 --> 00:55:18.330 in the mortgage system. 00:55:18.330 --> 00:55:23.180 A microfinance system is analogous to the mortgage 00:55:23.180 --> 00:55:26.370 system in the building of trust. 00:55:26.370 --> 00:55:33.660 98% of the loans engendered in India in microfinance 00:55:33.660 --> 00:55:41.100 have been repaid, which is an incredible statistic, given 00:55:41.100 --> 00:55:48.630 the general condition of poverty and the lawlessness 00:55:48.630 --> 00:55:50.500 that it insinuates. 00:55:53.260 --> 00:56:03.000 OK, the trouble with seeing good things happen 00:56:03.000 --> 00:56:05.010 is that sometimes good things need 00:56:05.010 --> 00:56:07.800 to happen at a very large scale for them really 00:56:07.800 --> 00:56:10.410 to make a big impact. 00:56:10.410 --> 00:56:16.510 Scaling up Diadema is difficult. How 00:56:16.510 --> 00:56:28.120 do you get the idea to occur in Tanzania, or in the Congo, 00:56:28.120 --> 00:56:28.690 in Darfur? 00:56:32.850 --> 00:56:35.580 But at least they are a small model. 00:56:35.580 --> 00:56:45.640 Now, maybe we will not need massive international 00:56:45.640 --> 00:56:52.150 cooperation to generate new models. 00:56:52.150 --> 00:56:56.460 I despair, given the track record 00:56:56.460 --> 00:57:06.430 of League of Nations, United Nations, atomic energy, 00:57:06.430 --> 00:57:13.480 and climate carbon control agreements. 00:57:18.420 --> 00:57:24.330 As long as you ask the poor world 00:57:24.330 --> 00:57:28.410 to subdue their economic activity, industrial activity, 00:57:28.410 --> 00:57:33.450 on the grounds that they are contributing to climate change, 00:57:33.450 --> 00:57:36.630 they rightfully can point to the United States 00:57:36.630 --> 00:57:43.010 having built up its economy through smoke and railroads 00:57:43.010 --> 00:57:54.780 and now, being the largest client for carbon production 00:57:54.780 --> 00:57:57.930 in the world, complaining. 00:57:57.930 --> 00:58:02.220 Even the United States wouldn't sign the Kyoto Agreement, 00:58:02.220 --> 00:58:05.740 in Copenhagen got no further. 00:58:05.740 --> 00:58:16.110 So I leave you with optimism and a kind of foreboding. 00:58:16.110 --> 00:58:19.680 A combination of climate change and poverty 00:58:19.680 --> 00:58:23.530 is a disastrous combination. 00:58:23.530 --> 00:58:29.790 Its effects will be particularly felt 00:58:29.790 --> 00:58:37.510 in water-borne cities like Dhaka, in the Himalaya region. 00:58:37.510 --> 00:58:44.650 The Himalayas control very much of the flood and drought cycles 00:58:44.650 --> 00:58:46.150 in the areas it reaches. 00:58:50.320 --> 00:58:57.810 Wealth will be able to withstand climate change, by and large. 00:58:57.810 --> 00:59:06.320 It will modify behavior, but it will increase migration 00:59:06.320 --> 00:59:09.170 pressure on the United States and on Europe 00:59:09.170 --> 00:59:12.970 and on established countries. 00:59:12.970 --> 00:59:16.840 I don't think United States television 00:59:16.840 --> 00:59:19.630 could stand having children floating 00:59:19.630 --> 00:59:26.160 in water in Bangladesh without changing its migration 00:59:26.160 --> 00:59:28.140 attitude. 00:59:28.140 --> 00:59:34.710 Migration is now under debate in this country. 00:59:34.710 --> 00:59:37.650 As a migrant, I myself, of course 00:59:37.650 --> 00:59:39.270 I'm in favor of migration. 00:59:41.930 --> 00:59:44.120 Statistically, we have built this country. 00:59:47.190 --> 00:59:50.940 There are more foreign-born professors in this school 00:59:50.940 --> 00:59:53.520 than there are Americans, I think. 00:59:53.520 --> 00:59:56.114 I don't know. 00:59:56.114 --> 00:59:58.020 There'll be one less soon. 00:59:58.020 --> 01:00:00.220 [LAUGHTER] 01:00:02.440 --> 01:00:06.190 These are all trajectories for the long future, 01:00:06.190 --> 01:00:08.410 but not so long. 01:00:08.410 --> 01:00:11.200 It's already 2013. 01:00:11.200 --> 01:00:17.680 Some of these predictions are for 2030. 01:00:17.680 --> 01:00:22.630 And there's no respite except for the people 01:00:22.630 --> 01:00:33.200 who believe that science has no way of forecasting change. 01:00:33.200 --> 01:00:35.000 Anyway, these are dull topics. 01:00:35.000 --> 01:00:37.430 [LAUGHTER] 01:00:37.430 --> 01:00:41.300 There's not much that you can go out and do about it except 01:00:41.300 --> 01:00:44.540 buy yourself a hybrid car and eat green. 01:00:51.530 --> 01:00:56.530 The trouble with climate change-- it's too invisible. 01:00:56.530 --> 01:00:59.800 It's not dramatic enough to stir the public conscience. 01:01:04.430 --> 01:01:07.850 You think of the German Holocaust. 01:01:07.850 --> 01:01:12.230 In 1936, when Berlin had the Olympic Games, 01:01:12.230 --> 01:01:15.350 there were concentration camps within miles, 01:01:15.350 --> 01:01:19.950 on the outskirts of Berlin. 01:01:19.950 --> 01:01:24.030 Avery Brundage, the leader of the American delegation, 01:01:24.030 --> 01:01:27.990 castigated New York Jews in The New York Times 01:01:27.990 --> 01:01:29.910 for making a story of it. 01:01:33.500 --> 01:01:35.810 The United States refused to take 01:01:35.810 --> 01:01:43.430 in a boat of people fleeing the Holocaust because they weren't 01:01:43.430 --> 01:01:48.320 legal citizens, and so on and so on. 01:01:48.320 --> 01:01:50.510 The demonstration of the Holocaust 01:01:50.510 --> 01:02:02.920 over 10 years of visibility was neglected by almost everybody. 01:02:02.920 --> 01:02:09.760 I don't have much trust in the universal consciousness. 01:02:09.760 --> 01:02:13.450 The world doesn't have any conscience. 01:02:13.450 --> 01:02:16.420 It only has selective consciousness, 01:02:16.420 --> 01:02:21.580 often in service of private good and national good. 01:02:21.580 --> 01:02:24.940 The more Boston goes on about being strong, 01:02:24.940 --> 01:02:30.070 the more I read a kind of perverse nationalism creeping 01:02:30.070 --> 01:02:31.960 in-- 01:02:31.960 --> 01:02:37.090 again, identifying yourself as able to be a Goliath 01:02:37.090 --> 01:02:41.560 withstanding the treachery of two young men. 01:02:45.760 --> 01:02:49.090 Anyway, these are my personal positions. 01:02:51.750 --> 01:02:55.398 I don't know what you think about your future. 01:02:55.398 --> 01:03:02.770 [LAUGHS] I grew up with the advantage of being a modernist. 01:03:02.770 --> 01:03:06.330 And the world was very attractive-- 01:03:06.330 --> 01:03:11.290 if only we could slay all those 19th century devils. 01:03:11.290 --> 01:03:14.290 It's amazing to me to know that-- 01:03:14.290 --> 01:03:19.330 to think that I studied modern architectural history 01:03:19.330 --> 01:03:23.020 with Sigfried Giedion at Harvard. 01:03:23.020 --> 01:03:27.430 In Giedion, in all of his teaching to us-- 01:03:27.430 --> 01:03:31.130 after all, he wrote Space, Time and Architecture, which 01:03:31.130 --> 01:03:32.710 was a big book at my day-- 01:03:37.100 --> 01:03:41.210 Giedion only referred to the terrible ruling tastes 01:03:41.210 --> 01:03:44.930 of the 19th century, that it wasn't producing 01:03:44.930 --> 01:03:47.630 architects of any consequence. 01:03:47.630 --> 01:03:54.710 He never mentioned anything to do with a city, 01:03:54.710 --> 01:04:00.050 not in all of his evocation, class after class of modernism. 01:04:02.830 --> 01:04:07.090 He'd said, oh, it's attractive that we've grown up. 01:04:12.161 --> 01:04:15.270 At least I think we've grown up. 01:04:15.270 --> 01:04:19.450 We're beginning to grow up. 01:04:19.450 --> 01:04:24.370 We talk about architecture being inseparable from urbanism now. 01:04:24.370 --> 01:04:29.310 And yet we don't teach urban history at all. 01:04:29.310 --> 01:04:31.530 This is the closest class you're going to get 01:04:31.530 --> 01:04:34.200 to dealing with urban history. 01:04:34.200 --> 01:04:41.250 And I know a historian, and he uses a sneaky method 01:04:41.250 --> 01:04:42.720 to introduce history. 01:04:42.720 --> 01:04:45.210 [LAUGHTER] 01:04:45.210 --> 01:04:49.920 Not being sure of the detailed facts myself, 01:04:49.920 --> 01:04:57.090 I have to conjure up clever, tricky ways of convincing you. 01:05:00.720 --> 01:05:02.610 There's no architecture curriculum 01:05:02.610 --> 01:05:07.050 in the world that doesn't require architectural history 01:05:07.050 --> 01:05:10.020 as a major element of its discourse. 01:05:12.530 --> 01:05:16.610 There's no field in the arts-- 01:05:16.610 --> 01:05:20.900 literature, painting, music-- that 01:05:20.900 --> 01:05:25.290 doesn't require an understanding of its predecessors. 01:05:28.160 --> 01:05:30.350 You can play the horn as much as you want to, 01:05:30.350 --> 01:05:35.030 but you better know Mozart, or at least one symphony 01:05:35.030 --> 01:05:39.470 of Mozart, in your exams. 01:05:39.470 --> 01:05:41.600 You can be an architectural graduate 01:05:41.600 --> 01:05:47.120 with not knowing one city plan in history. 01:05:47.120 --> 01:05:49.080 City plans are difficult to remember, 01:05:49.080 --> 01:05:52.490 and I wouldn't want to be given an exam asking 01:05:52.490 --> 01:05:55.940 me to draw 10 city plans. 01:05:55.940 --> 01:05:57.260 Chandigarh is easy. 01:05:57.260 --> 01:05:59.990 Manhattan is easy. 01:05:59.990 --> 01:06:10.760 Once you depart-- anyway, so go and finish your work. 01:06:10.760 --> 01:06:13.100 Have a great summer. 01:06:13.100 --> 01:06:16.240 And I'll see you on Thursday if you have the time. 01:06:18.790 --> 01:06:22.160 So much for the world of-- 01:06:22.160 --> 01:06:24.760 the developing-- Ricardo, what do you think 01:06:24.760 --> 01:06:27.666 is going to happen in Mexico? 01:06:27.666 --> 01:06:29.082 AUDIENCE: Ooh. 01:06:29.082 --> 01:06:30.500 [LAUGHTER] 01:06:30.500 --> 01:06:33.410 JULIAN BEINART: No, in relation to our general discussion 01:06:33.410 --> 01:06:34.272 this morning? 01:06:34.272 --> 01:06:36.230 AUDIENCE: I think there was a lot of discussion 01:06:36.230 --> 01:06:37.250 around Mexico City. 01:06:37.250 --> 01:06:39.350 But I think that most people tend to neglect 01:06:39.350 --> 01:06:44.880 what's happening in mid-sized cities in Mexico-- 01:06:44.880 --> 01:06:48.830 so not necessarily places like Monterrey or Guadalajara, 01:06:48.830 --> 01:06:53.540 but actually places like Puebla, [INAUDIBLE],, 01:06:53.540 --> 01:06:57.700 which are a big part of the backbone of where Mexico lives, 01:06:57.700 --> 01:07:00.444 places like [INAUDIBLE]. 01:07:00.444 --> 01:07:09.080 And they fear that they're often thought of as basically 01:07:09.080 --> 01:07:10.766 an afterthought. 01:07:13.670 --> 01:07:20.970 But you see cities there, like Tijuana, like [INAUDIBLE],, who 01:07:20.970 --> 01:07:24.870 are really experimenting and pushing things forward, 01:07:24.870 --> 01:07:27.300 for that population, is very interesting-- 01:07:27.300 --> 01:07:29.830 not necessarily the following the model of [INAUDIBLE].. 01:07:33.880 --> 01:07:36.820 So it's interesting that they are-- 01:07:36.820 --> 01:07:38.750 JULIAN BEINART: Is there any movement 01:07:38.750 --> 01:07:41.910 that combines these efforts? 01:07:41.910 --> 01:07:42.540 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:07:42.540 --> 01:07:45.780 Yeah, there are some programs. 01:07:45.780 --> 01:07:51.138 There are some programs by the federal government [INAUDIBLE] 01:07:51.138 --> 01:07:55.450 urban sustainable development. 01:07:55.450 --> 01:07:58.480 And within each city, there tends 01:07:58.480 --> 01:08:01.630 to be a local grassroots movements that 01:08:01.630 --> 01:08:04.778 are sort of pushing the urban development. 01:08:04.778 --> 01:08:06.870 AUDIENCE: What is it mean? 01:08:06.870 --> 01:08:07.590 AUDIENCE: DUIS. 01:08:07.590 --> 01:08:10.278 It's easier if you just look at DUIS. 01:08:10.278 --> 01:08:11.820 AUDIENCE: But what does it stand for? 01:08:11.820 --> 01:08:15.410 AUDIENCE: It's Wholly Sustainable Urban Developments. 01:08:15.410 --> 01:08:17.761 AUDIENCE: Wholly Sustainable Urban Development. 01:08:17.761 --> 01:08:18.750 AUDIENCE: Wholly? 01:08:18.750 --> 01:08:21.231 AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:08:21.231 --> 01:08:23.189 It's a program from the federal government that 01:08:23.189 --> 01:08:26.193 finances housing [INAUDIBLE] Mexico is building 01:08:26.193 --> 01:08:31.870 about 950,000 houses a year. 01:08:31.870 --> 01:08:37.319 So there is a lot going on there. 01:08:37.319 --> 01:08:38.858 It's interesting times down there, 01:08:38.858 --> 01:08:42.104 as in many places in Latin America, actually. 01:08:45.439 --> 01:08:47.660 JULIAN BEINART: Yeah. 01:08:47.660 --> 01:08:51.380 Well, let's hope. 01:08:55.844 --> 01:08:59.130 This class was not to depress you. 01:08:59.130 --> 01:08:59.899 AUDIENCE: Sorry? 01:08:59.899 --> 01:09:01.649 JULIAN BEINART: I said, this class was not 01:09:01.649 --> 01:09:03.827 designed to depress you. 01:09:03.827 --> 01:09:05.819 [LAUGHTER] 01:09:05.819 --> 01:09:11.279 On the contrary, you could simply say, over 10,000 years, 01:09:11.279 --> 01:09:17.250 we achieved achieve more than 400 million before us. 01:09:17.250 --> 01:09:27.050 And there's many benefits that have come 01:09:27.050 --> 01:09:30.680 from urbanization in our time. 01:09:34.979 --> 01:09:36.780 Maybe it will continue-- 01:09:36.780 --> 01:09:40.760 but hopefully, less selectively than it's been up to now. 01:09:43.370 --> 01:09:53.300 There's no law that asks you to be a social animal. 01:09:53.300 --> 01:09:57.290 You can't drive into somebody else's garden 01:09:57.290 --> 01:09:59.630 and get away with it. 01:09:59.630 --> 01:10:04.170 But there's nothing that requires 01:10:04.170 --> 01:10:10.050 you to see your own condition in the light of other people less 01:10:10.050 --> 01:10:11.940 fortunate. 01:10:11.940 --> 01:10:14.580 Charity was invented by the British. 01:10:14.580 --> 01:10:18.160 Well, charity has been with us forever. 01:10:18.160 --> 01:10:21.810 But at the end of the 19th century, 01:10:21.810 --> 01:10:28.510 charity was seen as the major involvement of wealth. 01:10:28.510 --> 01:10:31.510 It still is in this country. 01:10:31.510 --> 01:10:36.890 I get upset every time I get a phone call 01:10:36.890 --> 01:10:41.090 asking me to donate something and trying to reconstruct 01:10:41.090 --> 01:10:46.700 my own ideology, which is not in favor of charity at all, 01:10:46.700 --> 01:10:52.095 but charity being only a method of conceding the government's 01:10:52.095 --> 01:10:52.595 inaction. 01:10:59.010 --> 01:11:01.980 There's no-- I don't know. 01:11:01.980 --> 01:11:04.340 It's very complicated. 01:11:04.340 --> 01:11:08.250 It's very fundamentally complicated as to who was-- 01:11:08.250 --> 01:11:16.410 why was I statistically born to have enough money 01:11:16.410 --> 01:11:21.795 to come and study here and then have enough energy to stay? 01:11:24.450 --> 01:11:26.670 I'll never be able to answer-- 01:11:26.670 --> 01:11:32.070 as opposed to a child growing up in the Congo today. 01:11:32.070 --> 01:11:37.110 What statistical right do I have over that child? 01:11:37.110 --> 01:11:41.310 These are questions philosophers have argued with. 01:11:41.310 --> 01:11:42.195 They may be tedious. 01:11:48.530 --> 01:11:52.040 But Marxism didn't solve the problem. 01:11:52.040 --> 01:11:58.190 Marxism only introduced a new form of power, 01:11:58.190 --> 01:12:03.110 despite all of the grassroots sentiments, 01:12:03.110 --> 01:12:08.830 it didn't result in anything. 01:12:08.830 --> 01:12:11.620 OK, see you next week-- 01:12:11.620 --> 01:12:14.380 I'll see you later this week.