WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:00.040 align:middle line:90% 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:02.470 align:middle line:84% The following content is provided under a Creative 00:00:02.470 --> 00:00:03.880 align:middle line:90% Commons license. 00:00:03.880 --> 00:00:06.920 align:middle line:84% Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare continue to 00:00:06.920 --> 00:00:10.570 align:middle line:84% offer high quality educational resources for free. 00:00:10.570 --> 00:00:13.470 align:middle line:84% To make a donation or view additional materials from 00:00:13.470 --> 00:00:17.400 align:middle line:84% hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare at 00:00:17.400 --> 00:00:18.650 align:middle line:90% ocw.mit.edu. 00:00:18.650 --> 00:00:20.790 align:middle line:90% 00:00:20.790 --> 00:00:24.290 align:middle line:84% Some content in this audio is not covered under a Creative 00:00:24.290 --> 00:00:25.775 align:middle line:90% Commons license. 00:00:25.775 --> 00:00:29.800 align:middle line:84% For more information, see the course materials on the MIT 00:00:29.800 --> 00:00:32.020 align:middle line:90% OpenCourseWare website. 00:00:32.020 --> 00:00:33.660 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Grabbing a bunch of index cards and scribbling 00:00:33.660 --> 00:00:34.090 align:middle line:90% things down. 00:00:34.090 --> 00:00:34.460 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yes. 00:00:34.460 --> 00:00:37.812 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Pretty much how I get by. 00:00:37.812 --> 00:00:39.800 align:middle line:90% Another group? 00:00:39.800 --> 00:00:41.788 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: So our group is [UNINTELLIGIBLE], 00:00:41.788 --> 00:00:44.770 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE], and Jason. 00:00:44.770 --> 00:00:46.396 align:middle line:84% We don't have a rep [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:00:46.396 --> 00:00:47.860 align:middle line:90% But [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:00:47.860 --> 00:00:49.812 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:00:49.812 --> 00:00:51.920 align:middle line:84% We're doing like a real time, supernatural 00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:53.430 align:middle line:90% horror/cooperative game. 00:00:53.430 --> 00:00:54.270 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: OK. 00:00:54.270 --> 00:00:56.745 align:middle line:84% Oh, like real time [UNINTELLIGIBLE] theme? 00:00:56.745 --> 00:00:57.190 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:00:57.190 --> 00:00:58.080 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: I'm excited. 00:00:58.080 --> 00:00:58.970 align:middle line:90% I'm excited. 00:00:58.970 --> 00:01:00.390 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: One, two, three, four. 00:01:00.390 --> 00:01:03.006 align:middle line:90% All right, who else? 00:01:03.006 --> 00:01:05.180 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: it's me, it's Tanya, Patrick, and 00:01:05.180 --> 00:01:06.916 align:middle line:90% Justin who are here. 00:01:06.916 --> 00:01:09.396 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:01:09.396 --> 00:01:09.892 align:middle line:90% OK. 00:01:09.892 --> 00:01:11.380 align:middle line:84% You guys have kind of a [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:01:11.380 --> 00:01:15.190 align:middle line:90% 00:01:15.190 --> 00:01:18.470 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: And how do you describe this game? 00:01:18.470 --> 00:01:20.790 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It's building a family tree game. 00:01:20.790 --> 00:01:22.217 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Geneology path building. 00:01:22.217 --> 00:01:23.380 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:01:23.380 --> 00:01:24.812 align:middle line:84% It's a path building game involving family members. 00:01:24.812 --> 00:01:26.650 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Consider it geneology path building. 00:01:26.650 --> 00:01:29.100 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It's kind of like a Family Feud game. 00:01:29.100 --> 00:01:30.940 align:middle line:84% Except, it's a little bit stranger. 00:01:30.940 --> 00:01:35.270 align:middle line:90% 00:01:35.270 --> 00:01:38.555 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So I think Jay and Mia. 00:01:38.555 --> 00:01:39.030 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:01:39.030 --> 00:01:40.455 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:01:40.455 --> 00:01:42.840 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: And Calvin and Jason, you've been 00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:44.613 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in that. 00:01:44.613 --> 00:01:45.016 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Oh. 00:01:45.016 --> 00:01:45.580 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:01:45.580 --> 00:01:47.412 align:middle line:90% and things. 00:01:47.412 --> 00:01:49.806 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:01:49.806 --> 00:01:52.800 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So right now we have a-- we don't have a 00:01:52.800 --> 00:01:53.195 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:01:53.195 --> 00:01:57.090 align:middle line:84% The idea we have is pretty much you want to get a certain 00:01:57.090 --> 00:01:59.120 align:middle line:90% sets of cards. 00:01:59.120 --> 00:02:02.838 align:middle line:84% And we get sets by drawing cards or trading with other 00:02:02.838 --> 00:02:04.220 align:middle line:90% people or-- 00:02:04.220 --> 00:02:06.950 align:middle line:84% but it's also you can take cards if you want, but if you 00:02:06.950 --> 00:02:09.342 align:middle line:84% get caught, then it's up to the other players whether you 00:02:09.342 --> 00:02:10.370 align:middle line:90% get punished or not. 00:02:10.370 --> 00:02:11.750 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: OK, if you get caught then-- 00:02:11.750 --> 00:02:12.734 align:middle line:90% OK. 00:02:12.734 --> 00:02:13.984 align:middle line:90% So [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:02:13.984 --> 00:02:18.935 align:middle line:90% 00:02:18.935 --> 00:02:19.724 align:middle line:90% That sounds good. 00:02:19.724 --> 00:02:22.194 align:middle line:84% So it sounds like we have four teams. 00:02:22.194 --> 00:02:23.444 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:02:23.444 --> 00:02:27.220 align:middle line:90% 00:02:27.220 --> 00:02:31.800 align:middle line:84% So today I'm planning on, for the most part, just going 00:02:31.800 --> 00:02:35.860 align:middle line:84% through the lecture stuff that I had planned for today and 00:02:35.860 --> 00:02:38.260 align:middle line:90% for last Wednesday. 00:02:38.260 --> 00:02:42.610 align:middle line:84% And if there's any time left, we could finish up with 00:02:42.610 --> 00:02:43.860 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:02:43.860 --> 00:02:45.650 align:middle line:90% 00:02:45.650 --> 00:02:47.840 align:middle line:84% And that's what I'd like to do. 00:02:47.840 --> 00:02:50.830 align:middle line:84% But if there's only like an hour left, then I think I'd 00:02:50.830 --> 00:02:54.015 align:middle line:84% probably rather you play one more game. 00:02:54.015 --> 00:02:57.540 align:middle line:84% As this is a useful exercise, but playing these games are 00:02:57.540 --> 00:03:02.770 align:middle line:84% just as useful and frankly a better design. 00:03:02.770 --> 00:03:04.470 align:middle line:90% All right. 00:03:04.470 --> 00:03:05.756 align:middle line:90% Let's see. 00:03:05.756 --> 00:03:08.510 align:middle line:84% So I think I'll start with Wednesday's stuff first, which 00:03:08.510 --> 00:03:10.220 align:middle line:90% is the last [COLERA] 00:03:10.220 --> 00:03:12.920 align:middle line:84% reading for the entire semester. 00:03:12.920 --> 00:03:15.720 align:middle line:84% I did, in fact, actually look a little bit into the weird 00:03:15.720 --> 00:03:21.612 align:middle line:84% eskimo stuff from Monday, and one thing, I don't actually 00:03:21.612 --> 00:03:22.760 align:middle line:84% think he was speaking figuratively. 00:03:22.760 --> 00:03:25.800 align:middle line:84% I think he was actually describing something that he 00:03:25.800 --> 00:03:32.254 align:middle line:84% had done some anthropoligical research on-- this is a ritual 00:03:32.254 --> 00:03:36.615 align:middle line:84% that a very, very [UNINTELLIGIBLE], just a fine 00:03:36.615 --> 00:03:39.430 align:middle line:90% group of eskimos do. 00:03:39.430 --> 00:03:42.656 align:middle line:84% It reminds me a lot of the sort of recitations that you 00:03:42.656 --> 00:03:45.260 align:middle line:84% get that sometimes has a morbid quality, 00:03:45.260 --> 00:03:45.880 align:middle line:90% sometimes they don't. 00:03:45.880 --> 00:03:49.270 align:middle line:84% But this reminds you of either historical events, or 00:03:49.270 --> 00:03:50.220 align:middle line:90% important things to do. 00:03:50.220 --> 00:03:52.770 align:middle line:84% Like the easiest one that I keep in my brain is 00:03:52.770 --> 00:03:54.970 align:middle line:90% righty-tighty, lefty-loosey. 00:03:54.970 --> 00:03:58.590 align:middle line:84% That teaches you something of how screws work. 00:03:58.590 --> 00:04:00.894 align:middle line:84% But then they're a little bit like ring around the rosy, 00:04:00.894 --> 00:04:01.870 align:middle line:84% with a pocket full of poseys, ashes, 00:04:01.870 --> 00:04:03.425 align:middle line:90% ashes, we all fall down. 00:04:03.425 --> 00:04:06.850 align:middle line:84% But it's actually a commemorative little poem 00:04:06.850 --> 00:04:11.138 align:middle line:90% about the black death. 00:04:11.138 --> 00:04:14.010 align:middle line:84% That's what that song is about. 00:04:14.010 --> 00:04:18.029 align:middle line:84% So you have these little things. 00:04:18.029 --> 00:04:20.920 align:middle line:84% That particular example that he was describing was more 00:04:20.920 --> 00:04:25.070 align:middle line:84% about this recitation that you sort of remember the procedure 00:04:25.070 --> 00:04:28.465 align:middle line:84% in which things are supposed to be done. 00:04:28.465 --> 00:04:30.250 align:middle line:84% But they're [UNINTELLIGIBLE], they're sort of 00:04:30.250 --> 00:04:30.940 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:04:30.940 --> 00:04:34.754 align:middle line:84% reenactment about what you do in order to I guess 00:04:34.754 --> 00:04:36.185 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:04:36.185 --> 00:04:40.540 align:middle line:84% or something like that to basically perform 00:04:40.540 --> 00:04:43.682 align:middle line:90% taxodermy on an animal. 00:04:43.682 --> 00:04:46.740 align:middle line:90% 00:04:46.740 --> 00:04:50.070 align:middle line:84% One of those ways where a playful experience was pretty 00:04:50.070 --> 00:04:54.646 align:middle line:84% much it's been used as a learning tool. 00:04:54.646 --> 00:04:58.920 align:middle line:84% And that kind of gets back to something I was mentioning 00:04:58.920 --> 00:05:00.460 align:middle line:90% much earlier in this course. 00:05:00.460 --> 00:05:04.600 align:middle line:84% In many ways, learning how to play a game is 00:05:04.600 --> 00:05:06.730 align:middle line:90% literally very exotic. 00:05:06.730 --> 00:05:09.116 align:middle line:84% You can't figure out how to play the game unless you have 00:05:09.116 --> 00:05:10.880 align:middle line:90% figured out all the rules. 00:05:10.880 --> 00:05:12.555 align:middle line:84% And if the rules happen to have some sort of correlation 00:05:12.555 --> 00:05:14.956 align:middle line:84% to something real world, you might end up learning 00:05:14.956 --> 00:05:16.100 align:middle line:84% something about that real world. 00:05:16.100 --> 00:05:18.860 align:middle line:84% Whether you transfer to back to actually something real 00:05:18.860 --> 00:05:24.690 align:middle line:84% world is kind of actually the topic of what Wednesday's 00:05:24.690 --> 00:05:27.855 align:middle line:90% reading about. 00:05:27.855 --> 00:05:28.370 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:05:28.370 --> 00:05:33.160 align:middle line:84% talks about mimicry and things being kind of taken over by 00:05:33.160 --> 00:05:35.180 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:05:35.180 --> 00:05:37.360 align:middle line:84% Now he uses these grand, sweeping statements which I 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:40.580 align:middle line:84% think sound a lot more modest when they're in the original 00:05:40.580 --> 00:05:42.360 align:middle line:84% language, and what to translate [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:05:42.360 --> 00:05:46.210 align:middle line:84% sound like you're saying, and this huge wave of competitive 00:05:46.210 --> 00:05:48.418 align:middle line:90% games took over witch doctors. 00:05:48.418 --> 00:05:52.250 align:middle line:90% 00:05:52.250 --> 00:05:56.980 align:middle line:84% But I think what he's referring to, and if we notice 00:05:56.980 --> 00:05:58.760 align:middle line:84% the readings for that chapter three and chapter eight. 00:05:58.760 --> 00:06:01.936 align:middle line:84% So there's a whole bunch of stuff that's missing, and we 00:06:01.936 --> 00:06:05.040 align:middle line:84% kind of wanted to spare you from the bad translation. 00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:13.010 align:middle line:84% But the idea is that there is a lot of stuff that basically 00:06:13.010 --> 00:06:17.820 align:middle line:84% mimicry, the old process of putting on masks, putting on 00:06:17.820 --> 00:06:22.680 align:middle line:84% costumes, and being someone else has great societal power. 00:06:22.680 --> 00:06:27.110 align:middle line:90% This had great societal power. 00:06:27.110 --> 00:06:31.370 align:middle line:84% And this is more of an anthropological thing. 00:06:31.370 --> 00:06:34.420 align:middle line:84% But the idea being you have these people-- who are 00:06:34.420 --> 00:06:36.510 align:middle line:84% effectively leaders of groups-- 00:06:36.510 --> 00:06:38.470 align:middle line:90% shamans, witch doctors, fortune 00:06:38.470 --> 00:06:41.410 align:middle line:90% tellers, maybe just elders. 00:06:41.410 --> 00:06:44.530 align:middle line:84% And they would have costumes, they'd have masks that not 00:06:44.530 --> 00:06:51.600 align:middle line:84% only gave them station, what when I wear this robe I am now 00:06:51.600 --> 00:06:54.450 align:middle line:84% in charge of this tribe, but also turned them 00:06:54.450 --> 00:06:57.760 align:middle line:90% into somebody else. 00:06:57.760 --> 00:07:02.372 align:middle line:84% Now, if you look at ancient accounts of the Egyptian 00:07:02.372 --> 00:07:05.300 align:middle line:84% pharoahs, for instance, in order to actually give up 00:07:05.300 --> 00:07:08.270 align:middle line:84% their own name and then they take on a new name. 00:07:08.270 --> 00:07:09.596 align:middle line:84% And a lot of them actually just become Pharaoh in the 00:07:09.596 --> 00:07:15.530 align:middle line:84% same way that a lot of Roman emperors just become Caesar. 00:07:15.530 --> 00:07:18.000 align:middle line:84% You can think of Caesear as just being king. 00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:21.952 align:middle line:84% So it becomes a title, but you also become a person. 00:07:21.952 --> 00:07:23.928 align:middle line:90% A lot of the-- 00:07:23.928 --> 00:07:24.916 align:middle line:90% I'm trying to remember-- 00:07:24.916 --> 00:07:31.820 align:middle line:84% Persian, I think, emperors become Darius or Cyrus. 00:07:31.820 --> 00:07:33.290 align:middle line:90% Kind of just one word. 00:07:33.290 --> 00:07:36.230 align:middle line:84% This is one name that was given to the king. 00:07:36.230 --> 00:07:39.180 align:middle line:90% That's who you become. 00:07:39.180 --> 00:07:45.990 align:middle line:84% And that kind of combined with aesthetic solemn rituals. 00:07:45.990 --> 00:07:48.683 align:middle line:84% A lot of these are not what you would recognize 00:07:48.683 --> 00:07:51.350 align:middle line:90% as games right now. 00:07:51.350 --> 00:07:55.250 align:middle line:84% But in many ways they sort of tap into the same sort of 00:07:55.250 --> 00:08:00.150 align:middle line:84% pleasures of sort of critical and losing control. 00:08:00.150 --> 00:08:04.120 align:middle line:84% Once in a while, you don't have to be sort of all 00:08:04.120 --> 00:08:06.120 align:middle line:90% inhibited and obeying laws. 00:08:06.120 --> 00:08:08.620 align:middle line:90% You can just cut loose. 00:08:08.620 --> 00:08:12.429 align:middle line:90% And in superstitious tribes, 00:08:12.429 --> 00:08:15.510 align:middle line:90% superstitition will be the excuse. 00:08:15.510 --> 00:08:19.460 align:middle line:84% But you don't actually necessarily need that reason. 00:08:19.460 --> 00:08:22.750 align:middle line:84% And I think one thing that [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:08:22.750 --> 00:08:25.790 align:middle line:84% sort of describes in chapter eight is how-- 00:08:25.790 --> 00:08:28.195 align:middle line:90% we kind of get that today too. 00:08:28.195 --> 00:08:33.260 align:middle line:84% He was describing stuff like identification, for instance, 00:08:33.260 --> 00:08:39.536 align:middle line:84% when somebody who could be you wins something for no 00:08:39.536 --> 00:08:42.917 align:middle line:84% particular good reason, against incredible odds. 00:08:42.917 --> 00:08:48.604 align:middle line:84% And is there some sort of mechanism for you to feel I am 00:08:48.604 --> 00:08:51.176 align:middle line:84% now happy partly for this person's success, therefore, 00:08:51.176 --> 00:08:53.740 align:middle line:90% I'm a winner. 00:08:53.740 --> 00:08:59.412 align:middle line:84% Then you get to have that experience of ecstasy. 00:08:59.412 --> 00:09:02.460 align:middle line:90% You get to that news. 00:09:02.460 --> 00:09:04.116 align:middle line:90% A couple of videos. 00:09:04.116 --> 00:09:10.113 align:middle line:84% Some of them it's tongue and cheek, but hopefully that 00:09:10.113 --> 00:09:11.363 align:middle line:84% you-- it will kind of illustrate my point as well. 00:09:11.363 --> 00:09:27.430 align:middle line:90% 00:09:27.430 --> 00:09:34.050 align:middle line:84% So was anyone here in Boston in 2004? 00:09:34.050 --> 00:09:36.500 align:middle line:90% You were in Boston in 2004? 00:09:36.500 --> 00:09:39.438 align:middle line:84% What happened in Boston in 2004? 00:09:39.438 --> 00:09:40.794 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: With the Red Sox? 00:09:40.794 --> 00:09:41.246 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yes. 00:09:41.246 --> 00:09:46.801 align:middle line:84% The Red Sox won after, what, 86 years of coming real close 00:09:46.801 --> 00:09:50.575 align:middle line:84% and never actually winning a World Series. 00:09:50.575 --> 00:09:55.950 align:middle line:90% And I'm going to-- 00:09:55.950 --> 00:10:00.850 align:middle line:84% This is a neat little video that I have. 00:10:00.850 --> 00:10:03.310 align:middle line:84% I just kind of then just use this as a back drop. 00:10:03.310 --> 00:10:05.906 align:middle line:84% I think this is right around Fenwick Hall. 00:10:05.906 --> 00:10:07.394 align:middle line:84% I'm not so sure it's [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:10:07.394 --> 00:10:10.370 align:middle line:90% 00:10:10.370 --> 00:10:13.662 align:middle line:84% Sorry, the wireless in this particular corner of the 00:10:13.662 --> 00:10:16.840 align:middle line:90% office can be bad. 00:10:16.840 --> 00:10:19.750 align:middle line:84% This is-- actually let me skip a little bit. 00:10:19.750 --> 00:10:34.450 align:middle line:90% 00:10:34.450 --> 00:10:38.566 align:middle line:84% So for those of you who don't know the story, actually how 00:10:38.566 --> 00:10:41.920 align:middle line:84% many of you don't know what happened in 2004 around here? 00:10:41.920 --> 00:10:42.790 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Well I don't know exactly what 00:10:42.790 --> 00:10:44.040 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:10:44.040 --> 00:10:47.020 align:middle line:90% 00:10:47.020 --> 00:10:54.140 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So basically what happened around here was the 00:10:54.140 --> 00:10:59.910 align:middle line:84% Red Sox were down 3, 0 against the Yankees. 00:10:59.910 --> 00:11:02.844 align:middle line:84% And managed to come back from them. 00:11:02.844 --> 00:11:05.778 align:middle line:84% And then they beat the Cardinals and they won the 00:11:05.778 --> 00:11:07.245 align:middle line:90% World Series. 00:11:07.245 --> 00:11:09.890 align:middle line:84% Now, this is, of course, after 86 years, again. 00:11:09.890 --> 00:11:13.717 align:middle line:84% I mentioned really people just not winning at all. 00:11:13.717 --> 00:11:14.700 align:middle line:90% But coming really close. 00:11:14.700 --> 00:11:16.500 align:middle line:84% Each time they get really, really close and then they'd 00:11:16.500 --> 00:11:20.364 align:middle line:90% magnificently flub it. 00:11:20.364 --> 00:11:22.300 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:11:22.300 --> 00:11:27.990 align:middle line:84% So this earlier video here is what Boston looked like when 00:11:27.990 --> 00:11:31.410 align:middle line:90% it was down 3, 0. 00:11:31.410 --> 00:11:32.660 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:11:32.660 --> 00:11:45.990 align:middle line:90% 00:11:45.990 --> 00:11:50.015 align:middle line:84% The funniest thing that every time the Red Sox actually won 00:11:50.015 --> 00:11:51.660 align:middle line:90% it was like an awakening. 00:11:51.660 --> 00:11:57.160 align:middle line:90% So they weren't at Fenway. 00:11:57.160 --> 00:12:01.048 align:middle line:84% When all of these celebrations that-- can you see once the 00:12:01.048 --> 00:12:02.298 align:middle line:90% buffering stops. 00:12:02.298 --> 00:12:08.480 align:middle line:90% 00:12:08.480 --> 00:12:13.150 align:middle line:84% All the celebration that's going on is occurring miles 00:12:13.150 --> 00:12:17.346 align:middle line:84% and miles, probably 100 miles away from where the game's 00:12:17.346 --> 00:12:21.242 align:middle line:84% actually happening with the Cardinals. 00:12:21.242 --> 00:12:23.780 align:middle line:84% And of course, everyone was watching it on TV, everyone's 00:12:23.780 --> 00:12:27.140 align:middle line:90% identifying with the Red Sox. 00:12:27.140 --> 00:12:30.971 align:middle line:84% And right now you are sort of seeing like, as far as I can 00:12:30.971 --> 00:12:33.306 align:middle line:84% tell probably the Northeastern students 00:12:33.306 --> 00:12:35.650 align:middle line:90% who were around Fenway. 00:12:35.650 --> 00:12:39.160 align:middle line:84% But in here, the vehicles driving by and 00:12:39.160 --> 00:12:41.120 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:47.000 align:middle line:84% Everybody was listening on the radio, you can see the cars 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:47.560 align:middle line:90% driving by. 00:12:47.560 --> 00:12:48.649 align:middle line:90% Everybody knows immediately. 00:12:48.649 --> 00:12:51.144 align:middle line:84% Everyone in Boston immediately knew it 00:12:51.144 --> 00:12:52.142 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:12:52.142 --> 00:12:54.637 align:middle line:84% If they weren't watching the game, they would 00:12:54.637 --> 00:12:56.134 align:middle line:90% have heard it anyway. 00:12:56.134 --> 00:12:59.128 align:middle line:84% Because they have no affirmative claims. 00:12:59.128 --> 00:13:02.621 align:middle line:84% The only way that you would cheer the Red Sox is to say 00:13:02.621 --> 00:13:05.116 align:middle line:84% Mackie sucked, which is kind of sad actually. 00:13:05.116 --> 00:13:09.110 align:middle line:90% 00:13:09.110 --> 00:13:10.930 align:middle line:84% For those of you who weren't around, it was a really, 00:13:10.930 --> 00:13:12.680 align:middle line:90% really awesome night. 00:13:12.680 --> 00:13:14.680 align:middle line:84% There was, of course, a little bit of violence. 00:13:14.680 --> 00:13:18.110 align:middle line:84% Things got a little bit out-- a bunch of 00:13:18.110 --> 00:13:19.360 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:13:19.360 --> 00:13:23.335 align:middle line:90% 00:13:23.335 --> 00:13:27.480 align:middle line:84% But it wasn't like a huge riot or anything. 00:13:27.480 --> 00:13:29.513 align:middle line:84% For the most part it was pretty much this. 00:13:29.513 --> 00:13:32.340 align:middle line:84% A lot of people with a lot of the hands in the air. 00:13:32.340 --> 00:13:34.781 align:middle line:84% No cars being turned over or anything like that. 00:13:34.781 --> 00:13:36.260 align:middle line:90% But it was being-- 00:13:36.260 --> 00:13:42.170 align:middle line:84% But these are the kind of aesthetic movements that 00:13:42.170 --> 00:13:42.950 align:middle line:90% [? Colera ?] 00:13:42.950 --> 00:13:45.898 align:middle line:90% talks about in his write-up. 00:13:45.898 --> 00:13:46.390 align:middle line:90% Yup? 00:13:46.390 --> 00:13:49.342 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I have a video on my phone in Barcelona right after 00:13:49.342 --> 00:13:53.278 align:middle line:84% they won the semi-finals over the summer. 00:13:53.278 --> 00:13:57.214 align:middle line:84% And I had a video of the streets at 11 PM. 00:13:57.214 --> 00:14:00.166 align:middle line:84% I could show you [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:14:00.166 --> 00:14:02.134 align:middle line:84% I have a video of the streets at 12:30, 00:14:02.134 --> 00:14:03.610 align:middle line:90% so half past midnight. 00:14:03.610 --> 00:14:05.578 align:middle line:90% And it's the exact same scene. 00:14:05.578 --> 00:14:08.530 align:middle line:84% And the exact same people are still in the street with their 00:14:08.530 --> 00:14:10.990 align:middle line:84% shirts off, still twirling their shirts around. 00:14:10.990 --> 00:14:13.942 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: It was probably more rowdy I would imagine. 00:14:13.942 --> 00:14:15.480 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Oh, it was [UNINTELLIGIBLE] rowdy 00:14:15.480 --> 00:14:16.905 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:14:16.905 --> 00:14:19.445 align:middle line:84% This is America, they don't know how to be rowdy in 00:14:19.445 --> 00:14:19.710 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:14:19.710 --> 00:14:24.050 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I think for every three people there was a cop. 00:14:24.050 --> 00:14:25.990 align:middle line:84% You don't see that in the video. 00:14:25.990 --> 00:14:29.368 align:middle line:84% But there were a lot of cops out there that night just to 00:14:29.368 --> 00:14:31.000 align:middle line:84% make sure that [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:34.568 align:middle line:84% But I think Barcelona also would have been partying. 00:14:34.568 --> 00:14:36.050 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 00:14:36.050 --> 00:14:38.890 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: So the idea-- 00:14:38.890 --> 00:14:41.780 align:middle line:84% of course, the idea of a sports team is something which 00:14:41.780 --> 00:14:44.460 align:middle line:84% you identify with because associated with the city that 00:14:44.460 --> 00:14:45.890 align:middle line:90% you live in. 00:14:45.890 --> 00:14:46.900 align:middle line:90% They win. 00:14:46.900 --> 00:14:49.465 align:middle line:84% I didn't do anything, but because I because I'm a 00:14:49.465 --> 00:14:51.020 align:middle line:84% supporter of sports team, I get to 00:14:51.020 --> 00:14:55.240 align:middle line:90% identify myself with them. 00:14:55.240 --> 00:14:57.320 align:middle line:90% And [? Colera ?] 00:14:57.320 --> 00:15:01.180 align:middle line:84% makes the assertion that this is important because if you 00:15:01.180 --> 00:15:09.760 align:middle line:84% look at the forces of human chance, of there, which I 00:15:09.760 --> 00:15:13.620 align:middle line:84% think gives the various athletes the opportunities, as 00:15:13.620 --> 00:15:17.180 align:middle line:84% well as the physical ability, to actually perform well. 00:15:17.180 --> 00:15:19.830 align:middle line:84% The likelihood of any of the people actually celebrating, 00:15:19.830 --> 00:15:22.860 align:middle line:84% actually being able to perform that same feat 00:15:22.860 --> 00:15:24.266 align:middle line:90% is extremely low. 00:15:24.266 --> 00:15:26.935 align:middle line:84% In fact, the likelihood of even someone who has the 00:15:26.935 --> 00:15:30.530 align:middle line:84% ability and the opportunities of actually winning is pretty 00:15:30.530 --> 00:15:33.610 align:middle line:84% much random and the odds are against you. 00:15:33.610 --> 00:15:40.162 align:middle line:84% But because you identify so strongly with a group of 00:15:40.162 --> 00:15:43.890 align:middle line:84% people who can win, you are allowed to sort of enjoy that 00:15:43.890 --> 00:15:46.900 align:middle line:84% victory, even though you weren't the one who actually 00:15:46.900 --> 00:15:49.830 align:middle line:90% got that victory. 00:15:49.830 --> 00:15:53.240 align:middle line:84% And it gets stronger actually for some games-- 00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:55.930 align:middle line:84% well for some kind of games where you actually did have 00:15:55.930 --> 00:15:58.686 align:middle line:84% something to do with the victory, for 00:15:58.686 --> 00:16:01.060 align:middle line:90% instance, talent shows. 00:16:01.060 --> 00:16:04.430 align:middle line:84% Especially the modern talent shows. 00:16:04.430 --> 00:16:05.700 align:middle line:84% Maybe you've already seen this. 00:16:05.700 --> 00:16:27.552 align:middle line:90% [BEGIN VIDEO PLAYBACK] 00:16:27.552 --> 00:16:29.795 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So [UNINTELLIGIBLE] the Outward Bound are on about 00:16:29.795 --> 00:16:30.940 align:middle line:90% next week's show. 00:16:30.940 --> 00:16:32.240 align:middle line:90% They're going to-- 00:16:32.240 --> 00:16:35.160 align:middle line:84% remember that when you look at things like Britain's Got 00:16:35.160 --> 00:16:38.800 align:middle line:84% Talent, like American Idol, all of these things are 00:16:38.800 --> 00:16:40.210 align:middle line:90% popularity contests. 00:16:40.210 --> 00:16:42.360 align:middle line:84% You have judges, but the judges don't actually 00:16:42.360 --> 00:16:45.470 align:middle line:84% determine very much who's actually going to win. 00:16:45.470 --> 00:16:47.720 align:middle line:84% The only people who actually determine who's going to win 00:16:47.720 --> 00:16:49.410 align:middle line:90% are popular vote. 00:16:49.410 --> 00:16:53.590 align:middle line:84% And that vote is happening through short messages 00:16:53.590 --> 00:16:56.616 align:middle line:84% basically, which people are being charged for. 00:16:56.616 --> 00:17:03.875 align:middle line:84% The basic idea is that because you might have had voted for 00:17:03.875 --> 00:17:07.020 align:middle line:84% someone, you now identify with that person who might win. 00:17:07.020 --> 00:17:10.450 align:middle line:84% Whether that person wins or not is effectively random for 00:17:10.450 --> 00:17:11.089 align:middle line:90% other purposes. 00:17:11.089 --> 00:17:16.130 align:middle line:84% Now sure, that some of them have talent, but later on-- 00:17:16.130 --> 00:17:19.176 align:middle line:84% but when you look at who actually tends to progress in 00:17:19.176 --> 00:17:21.990 align:middle line:84% these competitions, I think some of the results are 00:17:21.990 --> 00:17:22.928 align:middle line:90% really, really random. 00:17:22.928 --> 00:17:26.690 align:middle line:84% Like you have some people who move onto the next stage 00:17:26.690 --> 00:17:29.470 align:middle line:90% because they are just strange. 00:17:29.470 --> 00:17:32.155 align:middle line:84% And you just want to see them next week because they may be 00:17:32.155 --> 00:17:36.150 align:middle line:84% entertaining, not necessarily because they're talented. 00:17:36.150 --> 00:17:42.220 align:middle line:84% So this is [UNINTELLIGIBLE] example. 00:17:42.220 --> 00:17:43.196 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:17:43.196 --> 00:17:43.684 align:middle line:90% [WATCHING VIDEO] 00:17:43.684 --> 00:17:46.612 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Yes, but their [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:17:46.612 --> 00:17:48.564 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Dancing. 00:17:48.564 --> 00:17:49.070 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: That's an obvious one. 00:17:49.070 --> 00:17:50.510 align:middle line:90% Singing for everyone. 00:17:50.510 --> 00:17:51.760 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:17:51.760 --> 00:17:58.770 align:middle line:90% 00:17:58.770 --> 00:18:00.020 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [INTERPOSING VOICES] 00:18:00.020 --> 00:18:01.985 align:middle line:90% 00:18:01.985 --> 00:18:04.272 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Getting married. 00:18:04.272 --> 00:18:06.702 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:18:06.702 --> 00:18:08.160 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Cypress. 00:18:08.160 --> 00:18:09.618 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Yeah, what do they do? 00:18:09.618 --> 00:18:12.534 align:middle line:90% 00:18:12.534 --> 00:18:14.478 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I should have looked up what their 00:18:14.478 --> 00:18:16.844 align:middle line:84% particular is, but they can all do different things. 00:18:16.844 --> 00:18:30.578 align:middle line:90% 00:18:30.578 --> 00:18:35.902 align:middle line:84% So the first one is short message vote in. 00:18:35.902 --> 00:18:37.152 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:18:37.152 --> 00:18:51.220 align:middle line:90% 00:18:51.220 --> 00:18:53.456 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Slick-backed hair. 00:18:53.456 --> 00:18:55.901 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I notice the camera moves at this point. 00:18:55.901 --> 00:18:58.835 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:18:58.835 --> 00:18:59.813 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: They just like the looks of their 00:18:59.813 --> 00:19:02.747 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:19:02.747 --> 00:19:03.997 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:19:03.997 --> 00:19:14.764 align:middle line:90% 00:19:14.764 --> 00:19:16.014 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:19:16.014 --> 00:19:22.572 align:middle line:90% 00:19:22.572 --> 00:19:24.860 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: They're obviously [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:19:24.860 --> 00:19:27.770 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 00:19:27.770 --> 00:19:31.080 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It looked like a dance thing. 00:19:31.080 --> 00:19:35.860 align:middle line:84% And if you look at the other celebration's like the Susan 00:19:35.860 --> 00:19:39.780 align:middle line:84% Boyle video, where I think it got pretty viral. 00:19:39.780 --> 00:19:44.050 align:middle line:84% So I'm assuming a lot of you have seen it. 00:19:44.050 --> 00:19:48.915 align:middle line:84% It's one of those things where even if you don't necessarily 00:19:48.915 --> 00:19:50.576 align:middle line:84% that you're rooting for a person. 00:19:50.576 --> 00:19:53.160 align:middle line:84% It's so easy for you to be convinced that you're actually 00:19:53.160 --> 00:19:58.240 align:middle line:84% rooting for this person as soon as you have a reason to. 00:19:58.240 --> 00:19:58.770 align:middle line:90% So-- 00:19:58.770 --> 00:20:00.650 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It's like oh wow, that guy is from Texas. 00:20:00.650 --> 00:20:01.590 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Hey, [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:20:01.590 --> 00:20:02.580 align:middle line:90% It's good for you. 00:20:02.580 --> 00:20:05.100 align:middle line:84% You don't really need that much of a reason to identify 00:20:05.100 --> 00:20:08.020 align:middle line:90% with somebody. 00:20:08.020 --> 00:20:10.605 align:middle line:84% And that's where you get sort of still see some of that 00:20:10.605 --> 00:20:15.310 align:middle line:84% power of the vertigo, basically. 00:20:15.310 --> 00:20:18.150 align:middle line:84% It's not the vertigo of actually playing the game, the 00:20:18.150 --> 00:20:21.356 align:middle line:84% vertigo of watching a game, but it's still part of the 00:20:21.356 --> 00:20:24.330 align:middle line:90% entire game experience. 00:20:24.330 --> 00:20:27.080 align:middle line:84% Britain's Got Talent, American Idol, everything like that 00:20:27.080 --> 00:20:29.670 align:middle line:84% wouldn't have the power if it didn't have the hundreds and 00:20:29.670 --> 00:20:37.260 align:middle line:84% hundreds of screaming fans voting in and having their 00:20:37.260 --> 00:20:39.450 align:middle line:84% faces changing on camera, and applauding and 00:20:39.450 --> 00:20:41.922 align:middle line:90% screaming their heads off. 00:20:41.922 --> 00:20:45.480 align:middle line:90% 00:20:45.480 --> 00:20:50.340 align:middle line:84% And of course, that's the identification part of it. 00:20:50.340 --> 00:20:56.190 align:middle line:84% But even when you're talking about sort of just basic 00:20:56.190 --> 00:20:59.142 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:20:59.142 --> 00:21:03.580 align:middle line:84% Here's a shrine festival in Japan. 00:21:03.580 --> 00:21:06.410 align:middle line:84% And basically what they're doing is just getting started. 00:21:06.410 --> 00:21:09.550 align:middle line:90% Everyone's gotten assembled. 00:21:09.550 --> 00:21:11.880 align:middle line:84% All of the folks here who are wearing basically the same 00:21:11.880 --> 00:21:16.516 align:middle line:84% colored outfit are basically from the same town. 00:21:16.516 --> 00:21:17.766 align:middle line:90% Including that logo. 00:21:17.766 --> 00:21:20.190 align:middle line:90% 00:21:20.190 --> 00:21:23.430 align:middle line:84% And what you've got is basically like a little house 00:21:23.430 --> 00:21:25.959 align:middle line:90% for a deity. 00:21:25.959 --> 00:21:30.310 align:middle line:84% They're both carried on the shoulders. 00:21:30.310 --> 00:21:34.536 align:middle line:84% And those three up there look really precarious, but I think 00:21:34.536 --> 00:21:36.732 align:middle line:90% they're having a good time. 00:21:36.732 --> 00:21:39.172 align:middle line:84% That's a completely different talent [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:21:39.172 --> 00:21:42.600 align:middle line:90% 00:21:42.600 --> 00:21:46.870 align:middle line:84% But you know, this is not unlike what you'd see in a 00:21:46.870 --> 00:21:48.126 align:middle line:90% sporting event. 00:21:48.126 --> 00:21:49.620 align:middle line:84% It's kind of getting [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:21:49.620 --> 00:21:51.612 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Isn't the town versus town like competition? 00:21:51.612 --> 00:21:53.604 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: It's not really so much a competition. 00:21:53.604 --> 00:21:54.766 align:middle line:84% But I think there's a certain amount 00:21:54.766 --> 00:21:57.104 align:middle line:90% that you have to represent. 00:21:57.104 --> 00:21:59.574 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: That show existed in France, it's called 00:21:59.574 --> 00:22:02.372 align:middle line:84% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE], and they literally get towns in 00:22:02.372 --> 00:22:04.514 align:middle line:84% the countryside and have them compete in various 00:22:04.514 --> 00:22:05.008 align:middle line:90% competitions. 00:22:05.008 --> 00:22:06.984 align:middle line:84% So like each town, for example, designates the 00:22:06.984 --> 00:22:09.454 align:middle line:84% strongest person to have an arm wrestling match. 00:22:09.454 --> 00:22:10.936 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Sort of like champions. 00:22:10.936 --> 00:22:11.924 align:middle line:90% You send your champions. 00:22:11.924 --> 00:22:12.912 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: You send your champions. 00:22:12.912 --> 00:22:14.888 align:middle line:84% Then you have like a horseback thing. 00:22:14.888 --> 00:22:19.334 align:middle line:84% And I think like other weird events. 00:22:19.334 --> 00:22:21.662 align:middle line:90% And it's pretty popular. 00:22:21.662 --> 00:22:23.606 align:middle line:84% 1,000 people/person town versus 00:22:23.606 --> 00:22:24.578 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:22:24.578 --> 00:22:27.008 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I think you get that in the Scottish Highland 00:22:27.008 --> 00:22:28.810 align:middle line:90% games as well. 00:22:28.810 --> 00:22:31.170 align:middle line:84% Basically it's sending people to throw giant pieces of 00:22:31.170 --> 00:22:34.386 align:middle line:90% lumber as far as they can. 00:22:34.386 --> 00:22:35.700 align:middle line:84% But [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] competition. 00:22:35.700 --> 00:22:37.382 align:middle line:90% This is not [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:22:37.382 --> 00:22:38.795 align:middle line:84% This is a lot closer to kind of the 00:22:38.795 --> 00:22:40.679 align:middle line:90% earlier kind of situation. 00:22:40.679 --> 00:22:43.590 align:middle line:84% Because they're not vying to win anything. 00:22:43.590 --> 00:22:48.040 align:middle line:84% They are really just trying to all get into it together. 00:22:48.040 --> 00:22:51.870 align:middle line:84% So if you think of it as what kind of thing. 00:22:51.870 --> 00:22:54.690 align:middle line:84% The aim of the game is don't drop the damn-- 00:22:54.690 --> 00:22:57.150 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:22:57.150 --> 00:22:58.080 align:middle line:90% It's quite simple. 00:22:58.080 --> 00:22:59.100 align:middle line:90% Get thrown-- 00:22:59.100 --> 00:23:02.010 align:middle line:84% in fact, it's actually a fair amount of effort because I 00:23:02.010 --> 00:23:04.190 align:middle line:84% think they walk a couple of miles. 00:23:04.190 --> 00:23:07.490 align:middle line:84% I'm not quite sure what the traditions are on where it 00:23:07.490 --> 00:23:08.816 align:middle line:90% starts and where it ends. 00:23:08.816 --> 00:23:11.770 align:middle line:84% But it's like a huge street parade. 00:23:11.770 --> 00:23:15.290 align:middle line:84% And the whole idea is let's get everybody involved. 00:23:15.290 --> 00:23:18.190 align:middle line:84% The people are packed really close with each other, so it's 00:23:18.190 --> 00:23:21.275 align:middle line:84% not like you can actually move one foot without colliding 00:23:21.275 --> 00:23:24.130 align:middle line:84% into somebody else unless you're all moving in unison. 00:23:24.130 --> 00:23:27.430 align:middle line:90% And can you keep in sync. 00:23:27.430 --> 00:23:31.720 align:middle line:84% And all the shouting, all the whistles, and all the chance 00:23:31.720 --> 00:23:35.240 align:middle line:84% actually just helped that entire process move along. 00:23:35.240 --> 00:23:41.096 align:middle line:84% It continues today, not just in sports, not just in 00:23:41.096 --> 00:23:43.570 align:middle line:84% televised shows, but in street fairs and 00:23:43.570 --> 00:23:44.542 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:23:44.542 --> 00:23:45.028 align:middle line:90% that's great. 00:23:45.028 --> 00:23:48.430 align:middle line:84% And those folks really look like they're having fun. 00:23:48.430 --> 00:23:58.200 align:middle line:84% So that's kind of what we were [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:23:58.200 --> 00:24:07.700 align:middle line:84% And the version of this, the version of what [? Colera ?] 00:24:07.700 --> 00:24:14.107 align:middle line:84% describes as since your ability to succeed is so 00:24:14.107 --> 00:24:16.860 align:middle line:84% random, especially if you think of it outside of the 00:24:16.860 --> 00:24:20.130 align:middle line:84% game context, but more in the silo context-- 00:24:20.130 --> 00:24:22.920 align:middle line:84% your ability to be a great athlete, your ability to be a 00:24:22.920 --> 00:24:25.120 align:middle line:84% great politician, your ability to make a lot of money, just 00:24:25.120 --> 00:24:29.290 align:middle line:84% to succeed in life is so random. 00:24:29.290 --> 00:24:33.080 align:middle line:84% But people kind of don't necessarily want to 00:24:33.080 --> 00:24:35.360 align:middle line:84% acknowledge that it's random because you have rules, 00:24:35.360 --> 00:24:39.710 align:middle line:84% because you have sort of rules set in to promote merit to 00:24:39.710 --> 00:24:41.530 align:middle line:90% sort of equalize systems. 00:24:41.530 --> 00:24:45.270 align:middle line:84% Is this the equilaterian [UNINTELLIGIBLE], which I 00:24:45.270 --> 00:24:46.750 align:middle line:90% think actually he meant. 00:24:46.750 --> 00:24:50.990 align:middle line:84% I think the original word was egalitarian. 00:24:50.990 --> 00:24:53.430 align:middle line:84% While there are a lot of processes trying to stabilize, 00:24:53.430 --> 00:24:55.900 align:middle line:84% in the end you can't really ignore the 00:24:55.900 --> 00:24:57.376 align:middle line:90% forces of one's birth. 00:24:57.376 --> 00:24:59.356 align:middle line:84% At least that's the way he sees it. 00:24:59.356 --> 00:25:02.240 align:middle line:90% 00:25:02.240 --> 00:25:07.248 align:middle line:84% When you get competitions that are effectively just 00:25:07.248 --> 00:25:13.610 align:middle line:84% completely random, which means anybody can win, people really 00:25:13.610 --> 00:25:20.570 align:middle line:84% do understand and sort of ascribe to that kind of power. 00:25:20.570 --> 00:25:22.990 align:middle line:90% They accept. 00:25:22.990 --> 00:25:27.710 align:middle line:84% The likelihood of me winning the lottery is about as good 00:25:27.710 --> 00:25:31.550 align:middle line:84% as the likelihood that I'm going to succeed in life. 00:25:31.550 --> 00:25:36.386 align:middle line:84% A lot of it is based on who was I born to, and which year, 00:25:36.386 --> 00:25:39.830 align:middle line:84% and which region are we born in? 00:25:39.830 --> 00:25:43.602 align:middle line:84% What's happening in the world as I-- at least that's the way 00:25:43.602 --> 00:25:44.750 align:middle line:90% of how he puts it. 00:25:44.750 --> 00:25:47.210 align:middle line:84% So he has a really hilarious video, by the way, 00:25:47.210 --> 00:25:48.460 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:25:48.460 --> 00:25:51.146 align:middle line:90% 00:25:51.146 --> 00:25:53.310 align:middle line:90% This is an ad. 00:25:53.310 --> 00:25:54.520 align:middle line:90% Let me get-- 00:25:54.520 --> 00:25:55.852 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:25:55.852 --> 00:25:57.820 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: I guess so. 00:25:57.820 --> 00:25:59.070 align:middle line:90% Sorry about the-- 00:25:59.070 --> 00:26:02.740 align:middle line:90% 00:26:02.740 --> 00:26:05.692 align:middle line:90% It looks damn pretty. 00:26:05.692 --> 00:26:06.184 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:26:06.184 --> 00:26:06.676 align:middle line:90% [BEGIN VIDEO PLAYBACK] 00:26:06.676 --> 00:26:09.628 align:middle line:84% -Mos of us when we buy a lottery scratch-off ticket, 00:26:09.628 --> 00:26:12.088 align:middle line:84% we're thinking this is my day, right? 00:26:12.088 --> 00:26:14.260 align:middle line:84% OK, if that's the case, then a 19-year-old Mills college 00:26:14.260 --> 00:26:16.426 align:middle line:84% student is super lucky tonight. 00:26:16.426 --> 00:26:19.624 align:middle line:84% -Louis Jay became an instant millionaire with the scratch 00:26:19.624 --> 00:26:24.310 align:middle line:84% of a ticket, and he told Rob Robert all about it today. 00:26:24.310 --> 00:26:26.755 align:middle line:84% -It was on his birthday when Towson University student, 00:26:26.755 --> 00:26:30.450 align:middle line:84% Louis Jay, decided to buy a scratch-off lottery ticket. 00:26:30.450 --> 00:26:34.113 align:middle line:84% -I actually won $20 on the scratch-off the prior week. 00:26:34.113 --> 00:26:35.917 align:middle line:84% -Louis Jay went to this giant [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:26:35.917 --> 00:26:39.620 align:middle line:84% Mills and used the $20 he won on a scratch-off ticket and 00:26:39.620 --> 00:26:41.090 align:middle line:90% bought another one. 00:26:41.090 --> 00:26:44.115 align:middle line:84% As he began scratching off the numbers, Louis couldn't 00:26:44.115 --> 00:26:45.450 align:middle line:90% believe his eyes. 00:26:45.450 --> 00:26:47.282 align:middle line:84% -I'm at the second to the last line and it's 00:26:47.282 --> 00:26:47.950 align:middle line:90% not going too well. 00:26:47.950 --> 00:26:48.760 align:middle line:90% And I was starting to see six. 00:26:48.760 --> 00:26:50.130 align:middle line:90% I was like oh, it matched up. 00:26:50.130 --> 00:26:51.440 align:middle line:84% All right, I won $30 or something, why not. 00:26:51.440 --> 00:26:52.366 align:middle line:90% I saw a million. 00:26:52.366 --> 00:26:54.681 align:middle line:84% I started double-checking, triple-checking everything. 00:26:54.681 --> 00:26:56.690 align:middle line:84% Make sure all the numbers matches and everything. 00:26:56.690 --> 00:26:57.355 align:middle line:90% I was like oh, my God. 00:26:57.355 --> 00:26:59.760 align:middle line:84% -And when it came time to scratch off the last number, 00:26:59.760 --> 00:27:01.095 align:middle line:90% his mother told him-- 00:27:01.095 --> 00:27:02.867 align:middle line:84% -He was scratching on every one. 00:27:02.867 --> 00:27:07.108 align:middle line:84% And when it was the next to the last one I said, don't 00:27:07.108 --> 00:27:10.352 align:middle line:84% scratch it from right to left, do it from left to right. 00:27:10.352 --> 00:27:13.860 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:27:13.860 --> 00:27:14.970 align:middle line:90% -And there it was. 00:27:14.970 --> 00:27:18.950 align:middle line:84% Louis had won himself one million dollars. 00:27:18.950 --> 00:27:22.869 align:middle line:84% -This little dollar sign bag right here that I won on, I'm 00:27:22.869 --> 00:27:25.005 align:middle line:84% actually got number six for my lucky number right here. 00:27:25.005 --> 00:27:27.800 align:middle line:84% And down here it matches the six with the prize for a 00:27:27.800 --> 00:27:28.550 align:middle line:90% million dollars. 00:27:28.550 --> 00:27:32.040 align:middle line:84% -He's a hardworking young man, and he has fun and he likes 00:27:32.040 --> 00:27:32.410 align:middle line:90% the lottery. 00:27:32.410 --> 00:27:35.436 align:middle line:84% He buys a ticket on his 19th birthday, and lo and behold, 00:27:35.436 --> 00:27:36.870 align:middle line:90% he wins a million dollars. 00:27:36.870 --> 00:27:38.790 align:middle line:84% I don't know if he told you the other part of the story. 00:27:38.790 --> 00:27:41.193 align:middle line:84% He bought a ticket on his 18th birthday, his first one, and 00:27:41.193 --> 00:27:42.810 align:middle line:90% he won $100. 00:27:42.810 --> 00:27:46.220 align:middle line:84% So I don't know what's going on his 20th birthday. 00:27:46.220 --> 00:27:49.615 align:middle line:84% Everyone in the family about Louis's good fortune. 00:27:49.615 --> 00:27:51.070 align:middle line:90% -I'm happy for him. 00:27:51.070 --> 00:27:53.495 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Isn't it a story that they're trying to tell 00:27:53.495 --> 00:27:54.745 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:27:54.745 --> 00:27:57.620 align:middle line:90% 00:27:57.620 --> 00:28:00.580 align:middle line:84% -And yes, he does have plans for the money. 00:28:00.580 --> 00:28:02.673 align:middle line:84% -I'm putting some money away for my brother and sister to 00:28:02.673 --> 00:28:02.995 align:middle line:90% finish schooling. 00:28:02.995 --> 00:28:05.920 align:middle line:84% They go to [UNINTELLIGIBLE] school. 00:28:05.920 --> 00:28:08.300 align:middle line:84% I'm going to put some money away for myself, help my 00:28:08.300 --> 00:28:10.633 align:middle line:84% parents pay off some bills so we could all-- 00:28:10.633 --> 00:28:13.130 align:middle line:84% We always said what we'd do if we won the lottery, we'd go to 00:28:13.130 --> 00:28:15.502 align:middle line:84% England, visit my father's relatives and stuff. 00:28:15.502 --> 00:28:16.966 align:middle line:84% We're going to go there next summer hopefully. 00:28:16.966 --> 00:28:19.650 align:middle line:84% Just going to do a lot of things we always said what if 00:28:19.650 --> 00:28:21.846 align:middle line:84% we won the lottery, and now we did. 00:28:21.846 --> 00:28:22.822 align:middle line:90% -Rob Robert, Linda. 00:28:22.822 --> 00:28:24.774 align:middle line:90% BBAL TV, 11 News. 00:28:24.774 --> 00:28:25.262 align:middle line:90% [END VIDEO PLAYBACK] 00:28:25.262 --> 00:28:27.535 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So this is just a story that 00:28:27.535 --> 00:28:28.410 align:middle line:90% they're trying to tell. 00:28:28.410 --> 00:28:30.772 align:middle line:90% It's like this is hard-- 00:28:30.772 --> 00:28:34.258 align:middle line:84% he's a hard-working young man, as if that had anything to do 00:28:34.258 --> 00:28:37.680 align:middle line:90% with his [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:28:37.680 --> 00:28:40.668 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: He deserved it. 00:28:40.668 --> 00:28:41.166 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:28:41.166 --> 00:28:43.158 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:28:43.158 --> 00:28:46.400 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Behind that is that well, and and if you're a 00:28:46.400 --> 00:28:49.560 align:middle line:84% hard-working person as well, and if you bought a lottery 00:28:49.560 --> 00:28:50.460 align:middle line:90% ticket, you could win. 00:28:50.460 --> 00:28:51.622 align:middle line:84% That's the story that they're trying to tell. 00:28:51.622 --> 00:28:53.977 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 00:28:53.977 --> 00:28:55.390 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:28:55.390 --> 00:28:57.740 align:middle line:84% is like perfect time for opportunity. 00:28:57.740 --> 00:29:01.492 align:middle line:84% Like with the lotto idea, what if a really, really 00:29:01.492 --> 00:29:04.220 align:middle line:84% unlikeable, despicable character wins the lottery, 00:29:04.220 --> 00:29:06.220 align:middle line:84% what's the news reports going to be like? 00:29:06.220 --> 00:29:09.540 align:middle line:84% She never worked a day in her life. 00:29:09.540 --> 00:29:12.840 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: But I think you can still turn that in the way of 00:29:12.840 --> 00:29:17.150 align:middle line:84% this is not a person whose odds in life 00:29:17.150 --> 00:29:20.138 align:middle line:90% were already in favor. 00:29:20.138 --> 00:29:22.892 align:middle line:84% And everyone can sort of identify with that. 00:29:22.892 --> 00:29:27.060 align:middle line:84% It's like yeah, things aren't quite working my way, but you 00:29:27.060 --> 00:29:28.664 align:middle line:84% could be a lottery winner tomorrow. 00:29:28.664 --> 00:29:31.555 align:middle line:84% That's the story that they are telling. 00:29:31.555 --> 00:29:35.810 align:middle line:84% And of course, the idea being what the lottery director was 00:29:35.810 --> 00:29:39.095 align:middle line:84% saying, yeah, remember, he didn't just buy one ticket. 00:29:39.095 --> 00:29:40.740 align:middle line:84% He bought one ticket the year before, he 00:29:40.740 --> 00:29:42.350 align:middle line:90% might buy another ticket. 00:29:42.350 --> 00:29:46.700 align:middle line:84% They're trying to encourage you to buy more tickets. 00:29:46.700 --> 00:29:47.340 align:middle line:90% That's the story. 00:29:47.340 --> 00:29:51.680 align:middle line:84% The story is buy more tickets, which oddly enough is actually 00:29:51.680 --> 00:29:53.320 align:middle line:84% the only way to increase your chances 00:29:53.320 --> 00:29:55.338 align:middle line:90% of winning the lottery. 00:29:55.338 --> 00:29:57.773 align:middle line:90% Buy more tickets. 00:29:57.773 --> 00:30:04.104 align:middle line:84% Pity that doesn't work for like past deals and things. 00:30:04.104 --> 00:30:06.539 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:30:06.539 --> 00:30:08.974 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: And reapply for more [UNINTELLIGIBLE] classes 00:30:08.974 --> 00:30:09.950 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:30:09.950 --> 00:30:16.330 align:middle line:84% But the basic idea that they're trying to because the 00:30:16.330 --> 00:30:20.400 align:middle line:84% forces of life are so random, these kinds of like totally 00:30:20.400 --> 00:30:27.220 align:middle line:84% random, high stakes games have incredible power. 00:30:27.220 --> 00:30:30.148 align:middle line:84% And not just because of the possibility of winning. 00:30:30.148 --> 00:30:33.076 align:middle line:84% But because it resonates very, very strongly with the idea 00:30:33.076 --> 00:30:36.004 align:middle line:90% that you could win. 00:30:36.004 --> 00:30:39.420 align:middle line:84% And if you identify with somebody else, even better 00:30:39.420 --> 00:30:40.396 align:middle line:84% because then you don't even have to win. 00:30:40.396 --> 00:30:41.860 align:middle line:90% That person could win. 00:30:41.860 --> 00:30:47.165 align:middle line:84% And in fact, increases the range of different winners 00:30:47.165 --> 00:30:48.730 align:middle line:90% that you can identify with. 00:30:48.730 --> 00:30:51.712 align:middle line:84% Help people sort of get that thrill of winning without 00:30:51.712 --> 00:30:54.420 align:middle line:84% necessarily even having competed. 00:30:54.420 --> 00:30:58.640 align:middle line:84% So that's kind of the power that we have in chance. 00:30:58.640 --> 00:31:00.722 align:middle line:84% I haven't actually talked about, well so how do we 00:31:00.722 --> 00:31:03.525 align:middle line:84% actually use chance in games yet, which is what 00:31:03.525 --> 00:31:04.775 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:31:04.775 --> 00:31:07.350 align:middle line:90% 00:31:07.350 --> 00:31:11.624 align:middle line:84% But I think in their book, they describe-- 00:31:11.624 --> 00:31:14.486 align:middle line:84% the reason why I like challenges for you to design 00:31:14.486 --> 00:31:18.060 align:middle line:84% is that they're very concrete about well if you're stuck and 00:31:18.060 --> 00:31:20.810 align:middle line:84% you don't know what to do with a game, have you considered 00:31:20.810 --> 00:31:22.346 align:middle line:90% bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. 00:31:22.346 --> 00:31:24.811 align:middle line:84% They're very, very systematic about that. 00:31:24.811 --> 00:31:26.783 align:middle line:84% You know, have you considered doing options? 00:31:26.783 --> 00:31:28.262 align:middle line:90% Have you thought-- 00:31:28.262 --> 00:31:30.234 align:middle line:90% That's not chance. 00:31:30.234 --> 00:31:31.713 align:middle line:90% That's the second chapter. 00:31:31.713 --> 00:31:36.643 align:middle line:84% The first chapter was have you considered using dice, using 00:31:36.643 --> 00:31:38.122 align:middle line:90% cards, using spinners. 00:31:38.122 --> 00:31:41.540 align:middle line:84% I don't remember what other randomizing systems they had. 00:31:41.540 --> 00:31:47.700 align:middle line:84% Computer or random number generated [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:31:47.700 --> 00:31:54.490 align:middle line:84% Are you using it to equalize different skill levels, or are 00:31:54.490 --> 00:31:56.620 align:middle line:84% you just trying to make it so that there's sometimes 00:31:56.620 --> 00:32:00.520 align:middle line:84% predictability, that sometimes solveability in the system. 00:32:00.520 --> 00:32:02.280 align:middle line:84% There are all these different ways that you can use 00:32:02.280 --> 00:32:03.330 align:middle line:90% randomness. 00:32:03.330 --> 00:32:06.360 align:middle line:84% But don't forget how powerful randomness is. 00:32:06.360 --> 00:32:09.437 align:middle line:84% It's one of those things where you normally assume that you 00:32:09.437 --> 00:32:11.333 align:middle line:84% don't actually [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in the game. 00:32:11.333 --> 00:32:12.240 align:middle line:84% And you don't want him to [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:32:12.240 --> 00:32:15.117 align:middle line:84% First of all, as the designer, randomness makes it hard for 00:32:15.117 --> 00:32:17.967 align:middle line:84% you to predict what's going to happen, and as a result, it 00:32:17.967 --> 00:32:20.110 align:middle line:90% becomes difficult to design. 00:32:20.110 --> 00:32:26.463 align:middle line:84% But the power of the this I could be a winner for reasons 00:32:26.463 --> 00:32:29.730 align:middle line:84% that are entirely out of my control is actually more 00:32:29.730 --> 00:32:35.610 align:middle line:84% powerful than a lot of folks what will naturally assume 00:32:35.610 --> 00:32:38.550 align:middle line:90% right off the bat. 00:32:38.550 --> 00:32:42.316 align:middle line:84% So I'm not going to go too much into the various options 00:32:42.316 --> 00:32:46.785 align:middle line:84% that Brenda and Ian described as a challenge because you can 00:32:46.785 --> 00:32:47.210 align:middle line:90% look those up. 00:32:47.210 --> 00:32:50.061 align:middle line:84% But do look those up, especially if I'm having 00:32:50.061 --> 00:32:51.055 align:middle line:90% difficulty in your game. 00:32:51.055 --> 00:32:52.770 align:middle line:84% If you're having difficulty, oh this game is too 00:32:52.770 --> 00:32:55.410 align:middle line:84% predictable, and you can see that there 00:32:55.410 --> 00:32:56.990 align:middle line:90% is the optimal strategy. 00:32:56.990 --> 00:33:01.364 align:middle line:84% Well then you can think about maybe writing those might be a 00:33:01.364 --> 00:33:03.125 align:middle line:90% good [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:33:03.125 --> 00:33:07.490 align:middle line:84% Or maybe I want to be able to play this with people who have 00:33:07.490 --> 00:33:09.724 align:middle line:84% never played this game before I had met them, and still have 00:33:09.724 --> 00:33:10.964 align:middle line:90% a fighting chance. 00:33:10.964 --> 00:33:15.428 align:middle line:84% That's another good opportunity to win 00:33:15.428 --> 00:33:15.924 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:33:15.924 --> 00:33:18.280 align:middle line:84% But know what problem you're trying to solve before you're 00:33:18.280 --> 00:33:19.396 align:middle line:90% throwing something away. 00:33:19.396 --> 00:33:23.020 align:middle line:84% Because sometimes you can have a lot of fun with games that 00:33:23.020 --> 00:33:25.616 align:middle line:84% are effectively just like fun butteries. 00:33:25.616 --> 00:33:27.035 align:middle line:90% You know, oh, I draw a card. 00:33:27.035 --> 00:33:28.875 align:middle line:84% Munchkin is kind of like this actually. 00:33:28.875 --> 00:33:29.390 align:middle line:90% You draw a card. 00:33:29.390 --> 00:33:31.190 align:middle line:90% Oh, look at, funny. 00:33:31.190 --> 00:33:32.330 align:middle line:90% And you read the text. 00:33:32.330 --> 00:33:33.520 align:middle line:90% That was silly. 00:33:33.520 --> 00:33:36.030 align:middle line:84% And now they've added a Twitter version of Munchkin 00:33:36.030 --> 00:33:38.930 align:middle line:84% where every hour you introduce a new rule. 00:33:38.930 --> 00:33:42.876 align:middle line:84% And it's like the player whose name starts with the letter M 00:33:42.876 --> 00:33:44.860 align:middle line:84% gets double the hit point for something. 00:33:44.860 --> 00:33:46.844 align:middle line:90% But totally random. 00:33:46.844 --> 00:33:49.750 align:middle line:84% And that can be kind of fun, but that's 00:33:49.750 --> 00:33:51.840 align:middle line:90% really short-lived fun. 00:33:51.840 --> 00:33:54.110 align:middle line:84% That's one of the things where once you look through all of 00:33:54.110 --> 00:33:56.450 align:middle line:84% the cards-- the game's pretty much done for you. 00:33:56.450 --> 00:33:58.202 align:middle line:84% Even if you haven't even finished playing the game, the 00:33:58.202 --> 00:34:00.815 align:middle line:90% game might end for yourself. 00:34:00.815 --> 00:34:03.980 align:middle line:84% So try not to go down that track. 00:34:03.980 --> 00:34:06.830 align:middle line:84% There was a group last year that did a game where pretty 00:34:06.830 --> 00:34:13.300 align:middle line:84% much you just drew silly things to do out of a hat. 00:34:13.300 --> 00:34:16.339 align:middle line:84% And, yeah, it was fun until everyone got through the hat, 00:34:16.339 --> 00:34:19.664 align:middle line:84% and then once everyone knew pretty much the range of the 00:34:19.664 --> 00:34:21.564 align:middle line:84% little silly things, that's it, game was over. 00:34:21.564 --> 00:34:23.949 align:middle line:90% There was no replay. 00:34:23.949 --> 00:34:27.085 align:middle line:90% So [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:34:27.085 --> 00:34:28.000 align:middle line:90% "The [? Side Note ?] 00:34:28.000 --> 00:34:30.110 align:middle line:84% About Replayability," that's actually a really excellent 00:34:30.110 --> 00:34:33.910 align:middle line:84% essay on I think gamasutra about how replayability isn't 00:34:33.910 --> 00:34:35.476 align:middle line:90% actually a well-defined word. 00:34:35.476 --> 00:34:37.936 align:middle line:84% Nobody really knows what that word means, but 00:34:37.936 --> 00:34:38.920 align:middle line:90% everyone uses it. 00:34:38.920 --> 00:34:41.380 align:middle line:84% So if you're interested, check it out. 00:34:41.380 --> 00:34:43.594 align:middle line:84% I haven't actually had a chance to form a real 00:34:43.594 --> 00:34:44.844 align:middle line:90% opinion on it yet. 00:34:44.844 --> 00:34:49.900 align:middle line:90% 00:34:49.900 --> 00:34:56.210 align:middle line:84% So by the way, a lot of the roots of the kinds of 00:34:56.210 --> 00:35:03.580 align:middle line:84% randomness things that we use, like dice and cards, have some 00:35:03.580 --> 00:35:06.070 align:middle line:84% sort of root in fortune telling, which connects it 00:35:06.070 --> 00:35:07.312 align:middle line:90% back to kind of the ritualistic 00:35:07.312 --> 00:35:10.480 align:middle line:90% aspects of games again. 00:35:10.480 --> 00:35:13.200 align:middle line:84% The idea of you can tell whether you're going to be a 00:35:13.200 --> 00:35:17.000 align:middle line:84% success in life by your success in this game. 00:35:17.000 --> 00:35:20.430 align:middle line:84% And the game might be draw a card from this deck 00:35:20.430 --> 00:35:23.923 align:middle line:90% and hope it's good. 00:35:23.923 --> 00:35:27.715 align:middle line:84% Which parallels what a lot of people think like it. 00:35:27.715 --> 00:35:30.460 align:middle line:84% If I roll the dice, and if I'm lucky, things are 00:35:30.460 --> 00:35:33.170 align:middle line:90% going to work out. 00:35:33.170 --> 00:35:40.350 align:middle line:84% But there's a couple of interesting things about how 00:35:40.350 --> 00:35:43.542 align:middle line:84% strategy and skills start to work with things of 00:35:43.542 --> 00:35:45.700 align:middle line:90% randomness. 00:35:45.700 --> 00:35:48.920 align:middle line:84% For instance, there is one argument that [? Colera ?] 00:35:48.920 --> 00:35:54.900 align:middle line:84% makes that the reason why you get things like chance and 00:35:54.900 --> 00:35:59.986 align:middle line:84% skill games taking over mimicry and vertigo 00:35:59.986 --> 00:36:03.835 align:middle line:84% experiences is because we started developing systems of 00:36:03.835 --> 00:36:04.540 align:middle line:90% enumeration. 00:36:04.540 --> 00:36:07.240 align:middle line:84% Started being able to count, we started being able to rank 00:36:07.240 --> 00:36:09.500 align:middle line:84% things to tell whether something was actually better 00:36:09.500 --> 00:36:14.740 align:middle line:84% than other, and some sort of empirical numerical way. 00:36:14.740 --> 00:36:19.620 align:middle line:84% So if you think about it from that sense, then actually when 00:36:19.620 --> 00:36:22.460 align:middle line:84% you look at skill and when you look at chance, they're 00:36:22.460 --> 00:36:26.790 align:middle line:84% actually kind of on both on the same side. 00:36:26.790 --> 00:36:29.065 align:middle line:84% They're sort of dealing with number 00:36:29.065 --> 00:36:33.358 align:middle line:90% systems one way or another. 00:36:33.358 --> 00:36:36.250 align:middle line:84% If you had a system that has a lot of chance, any number 00:36:36.250 --> 00:36:37.250 align:middle line:90% could come up. 00:36:37.250 --> 00:36:38.415 align:middle line:90% Any card could come up. 00:36:38.415 --> 00:36:42.810 align:middle line:84% Any dice roll having some set of probability. 00:36:42.810 --> 00:36:47.775 align:middle line:84% What skill is dealing with what could happen, having a 00:36:47.775 --> 00:36:49.760 align:middle line:90% plan, having a strategy. 00:36:49.760 --> 00:36:53.380 align:middle line:84% Maybe that element of chance isn't a random die roll. 00:36:53.380 --> 00:36:56.410 align:middle line:84% Maybe a person that you've never met before that you're 00:36:56.410 --> 00:36:59.390 align:middle line:84% playing against, and you don't know how good they are, they 00:36:59.390 --> 00:37:00.821 align:middle line:84% don't know what the strategies are, they don't 00:37:00.821 --> 00:37:01.768 align:middle line:90% know how they play. 00:37:01.768 --> 00:37:05.980 align:middle line:84% They're effectively a die roll, and your skill is kind 00:37:05.980 --> 00:37:10.450 align:middle line:84% of or the element of skill in the game are all about how do 00:37:10.450 --> 00:37:12.130 align:middle line:90% you deal with all the 00:37:12.130 --> 00:37:14.530 align:middle line:90% probabilities that have happened. 00:37:14.530 --> 00:37:20.450 align:middle line:84% So one of the things that [? Colera ?] talked about is a 00:37:20.450 --> 00:37:24.639 align:middle line:84% lot of the competitive games kind things actually come up 00:37:24.639 --> 00:37:28.020 align:middle line:84% from tests-- tests of physical skill, tests of mental skill. 00:37:28.020 --> 00:37:30.645 align:middle line:84% Tests the ability to be able to take an administrative 00:37:30.645 --> 00:37:32.416 align:middle line:90% position and in society. 00:37:32.416 --> 00:37:34.350 align:middle line:90% That sort of thing. 00:37:34.350 --> 00:37:37.115 align:middle line:84% But your ability to actually do well on those tests also 00:37:37.115 --> 00:37:40.880 align:middle line:84% kind of depends on your luck of having the ability in the 00:37:40.880 --> 00:37:41.660 align:middle line:90% first place. 00:37:41.660 --> 00:37:44.630 align:middle line:84% It's like did you get the right of education? 00:37:44.630 --> 00:37:46.430 align:middle line:84% Did you study the right questions? 00:37:46.430 --> 00:37:50.400 align:middle line:84% Do you happen to have really good genes so that you can 00:37:50.400 --> 00:37:50.720 align:middle line:90% jump really high? 00:37:50.720 --> 00:37:53.700 align:middle line:90% That sort of thing. 00:37:53.700 --> 00:38:03.205 align:middle line:84% So the idea of whether it is actually just luck, if you 00:38:03.205 --> 00:38:06.225 align:middle line:84% would talk about a modern game, you can talk about skill 00:38:06.225 --> 00:38:08.000 align:middle line:84% of someone being able to play chess. 00:38:08.000 --> 00:38:10.610 align:middle line:84% Or you can talk about the luck of somebody having had the 00:38:10.610 --> 00:38:13.220 align:middle line:84% chance to play chess many, many, many times before 00:38:13.220 --> 00:38:15.586 align:middle line:84% they're playing this one particular game. 00:38:15.586 --> 00:38:18.370 align:middle line:84% Because not everybody in the world has that option. 00:38:18.370 --> 00:38:20.686 align:middle line:84% And that's kind of the case that [? Colera ?] 00:38:20.686 --> 00:38:22.120 align:middle line:90% is trying to make. 00:38:22.120 --> 00:38:27.796 align:middle line:84% When you're bringing a new person to a game, they haven't 00:38:27.796 --> 00:38:31.050 align:middle line:84% had the luck of playing your particular game. 00:38:31.050 --> 00:38:33.740 align:middle line:84% I'm going to say the good fortune of playing your 00:38:33.740 --> 00:38:37.910 align:middle line:84% particular game, whereas you have had that. 00:38:37.910 --> 00:38:42.140 align:middle line:84% So if you wanted to think of it as that, as well they're 00:38:42.140 --> 00:38:47.410 align:middle line:84% bad luck, now how do we use rules, either rules of chance 00:38:47.410 --> 00:38:51.020 align:middle line:84% or rules of skill to be able to give them a fighting 00:38:51.020 --> 00:38:53.280 align:middle line:90% chance, a fighting edge. 00:38:53.280 --> 00:38:56.300 align:middle line:90% Probably more rules of chance. 00:38:56.300 --> 00:39:01.610 align:middle line:84% So a there's a couple of different things. 00:39:01.610 --> 00:39:07.434 align:middle line:84% One thing that I do want to bring up is you 00:39:07.434 --> 00:39:08.426 align:middle line:84% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] information 00:39:08.426 --> 00:39:09.676 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:39:09.676 --> 00:39:13.882 align:middle line:90% 00:39:13.882 --> 00:39:15.370 align:middle line:90% Sorry. 00:39:15.370 --> 00:39:16.858 align:middle line:90% I could probably just draw it. 00:39:16.858 --> 00:39:19.834 align:middle line:84% But I just want to make sure I get it right. 00:39:19.834 --> 00:39:22.810 align:middle line:90% 00:39:22.810 --> 00:39:24.060 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:39:24.060 --> 00:39:33.722 align:middle line:90% 00:39:33.722 --> 00:39:35.828 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Can we also [UNINTELLIGIBLE] shift it over 00:39:35.828 --> 00:39:36.270 align:middle line:90% to the big screen? 00:39:36.270 --> 00:39:40.010 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: It's really very [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:39:40.010 --> 00:39:43.384 align:middle line:90% So it's incredibly blurry-- 00:39:43.384 --> 00:39:44.348 align:middle line:90% OK, all right. 00:39:44.348 --> 00:39:47.690 align:middle line:90% So this is the basic idea. 00:39:47.690 --> 00:39:50.925 align:middle line:84% Claude Shannon, back in the '60s, I believe-- 00:39:50.925 --> 00:39:53.700 align:middle line:90% I think [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE], 00:39:53.700 --> 00:39:58.290 align:middle line:84% basically came up with a model of how communication works. 00:39:58.290 --> 00:40:01.930 align:middle line:84% How information gets from a sender to a receiver. 00:40:01.930 --> 00:40:06.030 align:middle line:90% 00:40:06.030 --> 00:40:08.716 align:middle line:84% How does this have anything to do with games? 00:40:08.716 --> 00:40:10.114 align:middle line:90% I will get to that quickly. 00:40:10.114 --> 00:40:14.310 align:middle line:84% But let me just talk about models first. 00:40:14.310 --> 00:40:17.805 align:middle line:84% So the sender had some sort of like message, right? 00:40:17.805 --> 00:40:20.852 align:middle line:90% 00:40:20.852 --> 00:40:25.170 align:middle line:84% And they're going to send it end of this 00:40:25.170 --> 00:40:26.910 align:middle line:90% conversation I believe-- 00:40:26.910 --> 00:40:27.904 align:middle line:90% yeah. 00:40:27.904 --> 00:40:29.395 align:middle line:90% This is transmission. 00:40:29.395 --> 00:40:32.874 align:middle line:84% I'm going to shorten it and say X-mission. 00:40:32.874 --> 00:40:41.328 align:middle line:90% 00:40:41.328 --> 00:40:43.380 align:middle line:90% So a sender has a message. 00:40:43.380 --> 00:40:45.085 align:middle line:90% They want to set up-- 00:40:45.085 --> 00:40:48.334 align:middle line:84% they want to translate it, and then it needs to be received 00:40:48.334 --> 00:40:50.270 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:40:50.270 --> 00:40:52.690 align:middle line:90% by the receiver. 00:40:52.690 --> 00:40:56.360 align:middle line:84% In between the two, there is some sort of channel. 00:40:56.360 --> 00:41:01.156 align:middle line:84% So if you think of this as I got a computer and my message 00:41:01.156 --> 00:41:01.970 align:middle line:90% is an email. 00:41:01.970 --> 00:41:03.922 align:middle line:84% I'm going to transmit it through the internet. 00:41:03.922 --> 00:41:06.850 align:middle line:84% And then it's going to be received by some sort of other 00:41:06.850 --> 00:41:11.242 align:middle line:84% mail server and then it's going to the other. 00:41:11.242 --> 00:41:17.098 align:middle line:84% This is the important part of this model is that this is 00:41:17.098 --> 00:41:20.782 align:middle line:84% where noise gets in the channel. 00:41:20.782 --> 00:41:23.490 align:middle line:90% 00:41:23.490 --> 00:41:27.744 align:middle line:84% The reason why this model is useful for thinking about 00:41:27.744 --> 00:41:30.670 align:middle line:84% games is you can actually think of the 00:41:30.670 --> 00:41:32.980 align:middle line:90% sender as the game. 00:41:32.980 --> 00:41:34.680 align:middle line:90% This this game space. 00:41:34.680 --> 00:41:40.630 align:middle line:90% 00:41:40.630 --> 00:41:44.530 align:middle line:84% And the message could be something, it could be 00:41:44.530 --> 00:41:49.665 align:middle line:84% valuable information about the current state of the game in 00:41:49.665 --> 00:41:50.915 align:middle line:84% order for you to make a good decision. 00:41:50.915 --> 00:41:53.622 align:middle line:90% 00:41:53.622 --> 00:41:57.410 align:middle line:84% In poker, it will be, well everybody's hands. 00:41:57.410 --> 00:41:59.830 align:middle line:90% That's the message. 00:41:59.830 --> 00:42:01.345 align:middle line:90% That's valuable information. 00:42:01.345 --> 00:42:04.321 align:middle line:84% If you knew what everybody had in your hand, and if you knew 00:42:04.321 --> 00:42:08.070 align:middle line:84% everything in the deck in the order in which the deck is 00:42:08.070 --> 00:42:11.520 align:middle line:84% shuffled, you will be able to make a great decision about 00:42:11.520 --> 00:42:16.220 align:middle line:84% whether to raise your bid on the floor. 00:42:16.220 --> 00:42:19.130 align:middle line:90% 00:42:19.130 --> 00:42:23.000 align:middle line:84% And so you have rules that sort of encode what that 00:42:23.000 --> 00:42:27.225 align:middle line:84% message is going to be, and you have rules that-- 00:42:27.225 --> 00:42:31.135 align:middle line:84% you have strategies to help you figure out what to do with 00:42:31.135 --> 00:42:35.300 align:middle line:84% that, with the receiver kind of becomes and you think of it 00:42:35.300 --> 00:42:37.260 align:middle line:90% as [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:42:37.260 --> 00:42:38.730 align:middle line:84% as a player's position, actually. 00:42:38.730 --> 00:42:41.670 align:middle line:90% 00:42:41.670 --> 00:42:43.874 align:middle line:84% Or the player's strategy if you would think about it over 00:42:43.874 --> 00:42:45.124 align:middle line:90% a long-term strategy. 00:42:45.124 --> 00:42:48.510 align:middle line:90% 00:42:48.510 --> 00:42:49.850 align:middle line:90% The trick is noise. 00:42:49.850 --> 00:42:52.390 align:middle line:84% And noise is actually something that you get to 00:42:52.390 --> 00:42:54.590 align:middle line:90% control [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:42:54.590 --> 00:42:55.410 align:middle line:90% What is hidden? 00:42:55.410 --> 00:42:57.880 align:middle line:90% What is obfiscated? 00:42:57.880 --> 00:43:01.934 align:middle line:84% What can be deliberately introduced to confuse you 00:43:01.934 --> 00:43:04.294 align:middle line:84% about what the game state actually is? 00:43:04.294 --> 00:43:07.630 align:middle line:90% 00:43:07.630 --> 00:43:12.042 align:middle line:84% Noise can be random, or noise can be just plain old you 00:43:12.042 --> 00:43:13.540 align:middle line:90% don't know. 00:43:13.540 --> 00:43:17.370 align:middle line:84% Just deleting information out of the [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:43:17.370 --> 00:43:22.380 align:middle line:84% So for instance, you guys know the rules of Texas Bulldog? 00:43:22.380 --> 00:43:26.235 align:middle line:84% There is a set of cards in the middle called the river. 00:43:26.235 --> 00:43:28.640 align:middle line:84% I could be wrong, so if you really know the rules 00:43:28.640 --> 00:43:30.570 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:43:30.570 --> 00:43:34.793 align:middle line:84% And these cards are dealt pretty early in the game. 00:43:34.793 --> 00:43:38.174 align:middle line:84% They're not dealt right at the beginning, but the-- 00:43:38.174 --> 00:43:41.555 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] at the beginning? 00:43:41.555 --> 00:43:43.970 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Not all at once [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:43:43.970 --> 00:43:44.936 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: The first three. 00:43:44.936 --> 00:43:46.868 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: The flop, yeah. 00:43:46.868 --> 00:43:47.860 align:middle line:90% And then [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:43:47.860 --> 00:43:49.620 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Oh, the flop and the river, right. 00:43:49.620 --> 00:43:51.090 align:middle line:84% Which is the one [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]? 00:43:51.090 --> 00:43:51.875 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:43:51.875 --> 00:43:52.925 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: The flop is data? 00:43:52.925 --> 00:43:54.175 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 00:43:54.175 --> 00:43:57.760 align:middle line:90% 00:43:57.760 --> 00:43:59.720 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Everyone gets dealt the two cards, and then you 00:43:59.720 --> 00:44:02.950 align:middle line:84% turn the flop over, which [INTERPOSING VOICES]. 00:44:02.950 --> 00:44:04.070 align:middle line:84% And then the river is the [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:44:04.070 --> 00:44:05.310 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: The river's the big one. 00:44:05.310 --> 00:44:07.625 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: And betting zero, yeah. 00:44:07.625 --> 00:44:10.155 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Well no, technically when you deal you put one card 00:44:10.155 --> 00:44:12.576 align:middle line:84% face down then you put the flop [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:44:12.576 --> 00:44:13.995 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: That part doesn't have anything to do 00:44:13.995 --> 00:44:14.468 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:44:14.468 --> 00:44:15.890 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Yeah, but I don't know what-- 00:44:15.890 --> 00:44:17.961 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 00:44:17.961 --> 00:44:20.300 align:middle line:84% But the cards would get dealt out. 00:44:20.300 --> 00:44:25.162 align:middle line:90% It's pretty much an unknown. 00:44:25.162 --> 00:44:26.540 align:middle line:90% It is random. 00:44:26.540 --> 00:44:29.700 align:middle line:84% But on and above this, if you just put five cards in 00:44:29.700 --> 00:44:32.770 align:middle line:84% whatever side and then just dealt them out. 00:44:32.770 --> 00:44:34.430 align:middle line:90% It's a fixed quantity. 00:44:34.430 --> 00:44:37.880 align:middle line:84% But you still don't know what the heck it is. 00:44:37.880 --> 00:44:40.135 align:middle line:84% Someone else could have picked those cards and still don't 00:44:40.135 --> 00:44:41.154 align:middle line:90% know what it is. 00:44:41.154 --> 00:44:44.450 align:middle line:84% So they're effectively a random thing. 00:44:44.450 --> 00:44:45.450 align:middle line:90% They're noise. 00:44:45.450 --> 00:44:47.694 align:middle line:84% They're a bit of information we don't know. 00:44:47.694 --> 00:44:50.930 align:middle line:84% And in Texas Hold'em, a bit of information that everybody 00:44:50.930 --> 00:44:53.405 align:middle line:90% does know, so that's great. 00:44:53.405 --> 00:44:56.622 align:middle line:84% The information is kind of equally shared among everybody 00:44:56.622 --> 00:44:57.860 align:middle line:90% except for the one card. 00:44:57.860 --> 00:44:59.110 align:middle line:90% They'd be fine. 00:44:59.110 --> 00:45:01.100 align:middle line:90% 00:45:01.100 --> 00:45:03.360 align:middle line:90% So-- 00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:07.800 align:middle line:84% --when you think about how you can even things out for the 00:45:07.800 --> 00:45:12.883 align:middle line:84% players, or how you can make the challenge a little bit 00:45:12.883 --> 00:45:17.090 align:middle line:84% higher for decent players, you can think about, well how much 00:45:17.090 --> 00:45:19.422 align:middle line:84% information am I currently giving them about what 00:45:19.422 --> 00:45:22.000 align:middle line:90% a game state is? 00:45:22.000 --> 00:45:25.595 align:middle line:84% And maybe I can, I'll just [UNINTELLIGIBLE] them. 00:45:25.595 --> 00:45:28.073 align:middle line:84% Not necessarily lie, just hide. 00:45:28.073 --> 00:45:30.911 align:middle line:84% Just deny them information that is necessarily 00:45:30.911 --> 00:45:32.330 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:45:32.330 --> 00:45:35.250 align:middle line:84% It's also a good way to sort of think of well maybe if 00:45:35.250 --> 00:45:38.300 align:middle line:84% you're a little bit behind and you need a little help, then 00:45:38.300 --> 00:45:40.370 align:middle line:84% what are you going to do to give them a fighting 00:45:40.370 --> 00:45:41.348 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] channel. 00:45:41.348 --> 00:45:44.771 align:middle line:84% Let them have the next card that's coming up. 00:45:44.771 --> 00:45:46.727 align:middle line:84% Because we're talking about card games here. 00:45:46.727 --> 00:45:50.150 align:middle line:84% Let them re-roll the next die roll. 00:45:50.150 --> 00:45:51.400 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:45:51.400 --> 00:45:55.690 align:middle line:90% 00:45:55.690 --> 00:46:00.130 align:middle line:84% This model, about like thinking what sort of 00:46:00.130 --> 00:46:03.465 align:middle line:84% information are you giving your player can also sort of 00:46:03.465 --> 00:46:06.030 align:middle line:84% be useful in thinking whether they're giving too much 00:46:06.030 --> 00:46:08.376 align:middle line:84% information strictly from a decision-making point of view. 00:46:08.376 --> 00:46:11.170 align:middle line:84% It's like I'm throwing all this game state information, 00:46:11.170 --> 00:46:16.980 align:middle line:84% but really, all the player needs to know is half of that 00:46:16.980 --> 00:46:19.820 align:middle line:84% in order to make a good decision. 00:46:19.820 --> 00:46:21.943 align:middle line:84% You might actually want to consider 00:46:21.943 --> 00:46:24.841 align:middle line:90% reducing that somehow. 00:46:24.841 --> 00:46:27.739 align:middle line:90% Let me think of an example. 00:46:27.739 --> 00:46:31.844 align:middle line:84% I think Settlers of Catan that should be a pretty good 00:46:31.844 --> 00:46:35.040 align:middle line:90% example of that. 00:46:35.040 --> 00:46:35.940 align:middle line:90% You can see the entire board. 00:46:35.940 --> 00:46:40.100 align:middle line:84% Everyone can see the entire board at any given time. 00:46:40.100 --> 00:46:43.520 align:middle line:84% And everyone's got cards in their hands. 00:46:43.520 --> 00:46:45.630 align:middle line:84% You don't know what other people have in their cards. 00:46:45.630 --> 00:46:48.570 align:middle line:84% But for the most part, when you're trying to make a 00:46:48.570 --> 00:46:52.170 align:middle line:84% decision about what to do with your cards, you're really just 00:46:52.170 --> 00:46:55.586 align:middle line:90% concerned about your cards. 00:46:55.586 --> 00:46:58.514 align:middle line:84% As time goes on, you pretty much know what other people 00:46:58.514 --> 00:47:00.880 align:middle line:84% have in their hand if you've been paying attention, because 00:47:00.880 --> 00:47:03.900 align:middle line:84% people are picking up resources fairly openly. 00:47:03.900 --> 00:47:06.620 align:middle line:90% 00:47:06.620 --> 00:47:08.940 align:middle line:90% But you don't really care. 00:47:08.940 --> 00:47:11.665 align:middle line:84% And that's one nice thing about Settlers is that they're 00:47:11.665 --> 00:47:13.442 align:middle line:84% hiding this information from you, even though it is 00:47:13.442 --> 00:47:14.575 align:middle line:84% information that need to be hidden. 00:47:14.575 --> 00:47:17.970 align:middle line:84% Because in order to make a good decision in that game, 00:47:17.970 --> 00:47:19.920 align:middle line:84% you do not need to know that information. 00:47:19.920 --> 00:47:23.640 align:middle line:84% So they're introducting noise, they're deliberately hiding 00:47:23.640 --> 00:47:27.620 align:middle line:84% information from you so that you can just focus on the two 00:47:27.620 --> 00:47:29.837 align:middle line:84% or three decisions that are actually worth 00:47:29.837 --> 00:47:31.864 align:middle line:90% making on your turn. 00:47:31.864 --> 00:47:35.036 align:middle line:84% And that's one reason why Settlers games actually go 00:47:35.036 --> 00:47:38.208 align:middle line:84% pretty fast because people aren't paralyzed by too much 00:47:38.208 --> 00:47:40.650 align:middle line:90% information. 00:47:40.650 --> 00:47:41.970 align:middle line:84% If your game's getting too long. 00:47:41.970 --> 00:47:45.190 align:middle line:84% The game's supposed to be a half an hour and it's taking 00:47:45.190 --> 00:47:47.690 align:middle line:84% an hour long, think about the information that you're giving 00:47:47.690 --> 00:47:48.660 align:middle line:90% your player. 00:47:48.660 --> 00:47:51.270 align:middle line:84% All of it might be relevant to the game state, but not all of 00:47:51.270 --> 00:47:54.001 align:middle line:84% it might be relevant to what the players need to know right 00:47:54.001 --> 00:47:58.098 align:middle line:84% now in order to make their next move. 00:47:58.098 --> 00:48:02.110 align:middle line:84% And if you find a way to control that, sometimes just a 00:48:02.110 --> 00:48:04.690 align:middle line:90% clever color coding. 00:48:04.690 --> 00:48:07.650 align:middle line:84% Making your card in such a way that it's really, really 00:48:07.650 --> 00:48:10.023 align:middle line:84% obvious that there's a certain part of the card that you need 00:48:10.023 --> 00:48:13.290 align:middle line:84% to look at at certain times, and you kind of ignore it 00:48:13.290 --> 00:48:16.965 align:middle line:84% outside on a [UNINTELLIGIBLE] call other times, and that 00:48:16.965 --> 00:48:18.680 align:middle line:90% might help. 00:48:18.680 --> 00:48:24.110 align:middle line:84% But often what I find is in a lot of games like 00:48:24.110 --> 00:48:27.695 align:middle line:84% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] card games, for instance, board games, 00:48:27.695 --> 00:48:32.580 align:middle line:84% they would use a lot of icons to describe what the value of 00:48:32.580 --> 00:48:34.830 align:middle line:84% something is, or what kind of effect it has. 00:48:34.830 --> 00:48:36.870 align:middle line:84% And the reason why they use icons instead of using words 00:48:36.870 --> 00:48:39.270 align:middle line:84% is because you don't have translate icons. 00:48:39.270 --> 00:48:42.487 align:middle line:84% And they want their games to sell in Germany, in Spain, in 00:48:42.487 --> 00:48:48.500 align:middle line:84% England, and US, and Greece, and Italy, and so if you made 00:48:48.500 --> 00:48:51.843 align:middle line:84% cards, you couldn't use those same cards in every one of of 00:48:51.843 --> 00:48:52.660 align:middle line:84% those countries, so you use icons. 00:48:52.660 --> 00:48:55.190 align:middle line:84% The only problem is that now you have to learn what every 00:48:55.190 --> 00:48:56.854 align:middle line:90% one of those icons mean. 00:48:56.854 --> 00:48:59.480 align:middle line:84% If it's just a stack of coins, oh 5 coins means 5? 00:48:59.480 --> 00:49:01.345 align:middle line:84% OK, all right, I can probably figure that out. 00:49:01.345 --> 00:49:02.250 align:middle line:90% That's fine. 00:49:02.250 --> 00:49:05.928 align:middle line:84% But this is a picture of a hammer, what does a hammer do? 00:49:05.928 --> 00:49:07.650 align:middle line:84% I'll have to check in the reference manual, which 00:49:07.650 --> 00:49:08.900 align:middle line:84% happens to be in six different languages. 00:49:08.900 --> 00:49:11.780 align:middle line:90% 00:49:11.780 --> 00:49:15.448 align:middle line:84% And that's one of the barriers that a lot of folks have to 00:49:15.448 --> 00:49:16.412 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:49:16.412 --> 00:49:18.178 align:middle line:90% in card games and board games. 00:49:18.178 --> 00:49:20.260 align:middle line:84% It's not necessarily that the games are all that 00:49:20.260 --> 00:49:20.758 align:middle line:90% complicated. 00:49:20.758 --> 00:49:22.999 align:middle line:84% It's just that you have to actually have translation that 00:49:22.999 --> 00:49:24.021 align:middle line:84% has to be done because they're not really 00:49:24.021 --> 00:49:25.271 align:middle line:90% built for one language. 00:49:25.271 --> 00:49:30.220 align:middle line:90% 00:49:30.220 --> 00:49:36.196 align:middle line:84% So I probably have more to say about information, but I'm 00:49:36.196 --> 00:49:38.686 align:middle line:84% going to save it till next class. 00:49:38.686 --> 00:49:39.936 align:middle line:90% Any questions so far? 00:49:39.936 --> 00:49:43.666 align:middle line:90% 00:49:43.666 --> 00:49:45.907 align:middle line:84% Everything that I'm sort of directing at you right now are 00:49:45.907 --> 00:49:48.646 align:middle line:84% pretty much just different ways to look at the game 00:49:48.646 --> 00:49:49.642 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 00:49:49.642 --> 00:49:53.840 align:middle line:84% It's a card game, but try to see it from different ways. 00:49:53.840 --> 00:49:57.740 align:middle line:84% Not just how do I get this one game mechanic to work. 00:49:57.740 --> 00:50:00.220 align:middle line:84% But what are people going to be getting out of this game. 00:50:00.220 --> 00:50:01.950 align:middle line:84% When they're going to be drawing this big card, how are 00:50:01.950 --> 00:50:03.450 align:middle line:90% they going to be feeling? 00:50:03.450 --> 00:50:05.290 align:middle line:84% Are they going to be getting excited? 00:50:05.290 --> 00:50:07.600 align:middle line:90% Apprehensive? 00:50:07.600 --> 00:50:10.845 align:middle line:84% Are they going to be counting on the next card to win them 00:50:10.845 --> 00:50:12.545 align:middle line:84% the game, or is this just going to be giving them 00:50:12.545 --> 00:50:15.613 align:middle line:84% options, and do they know what options they have? 00:50:15.613 --> 00:50:19.064 align:middle line:90% 00:50:19.064 --> 00:50:42.728 align:middle line:84% So I'm just going to do a complete 00:50:42.728 --> 00:50:44.207 align:middle line:90% transition at this point. 00:50:44.207 --> 00:50:45.686 align:middle line:90% So new topic. 00:50:45.686 --> 00:50:53.280 align:middle line:90% 00:50:53.280 --> 00:50:55.110 align:middle line:84% One thing I want to talk about, which is not actually 00:50:55.110 --> 00:50:57.400 align:middle line:84% covered in any of the readings is the body 00:50:57.400 --> 00:50:58.720 align:middle line:90% motion think plate. 00:50:58.720 --> 00:51:00.760 align:middle line:84% I think it's probably used as, sort of-- 00:51:00.760 --> 00:51:03.732 align:middle line:84% Jason and I use this story quite a bit. 00:51:03.732 --> 00:51:06.806 align:middle line:84% We haven't really designed it all that well. 00:51:06.806 --> 00:51:13.480 align:middle line:84% But if you think of the definition of what a good game 00:51:13.480 --> 00:51:14.750 align:middle line:90% could be, [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:51:14.750 --> 00:51:18.240 align:middle line:84% offers, a good game is a series of interesting choices. 00:51:18.240 --> 00:51:21.240 align:middle line:84% Our answer is all interesting decisions. 00:51:21.240 --> 00:51:26.640 align:middle line:84% So what's an interesting decision? 00:51:26.640 --> 00:51:30.560 align:middle line:84% One argument is that an interesting decision is one 00:51:30.560 --> 00:51:35.325 align:middle line:84% where you're using mechanics to affect the game state. 00:51:35.325 --> 00:51:40.050 align:middle line:84% And you're going to get some information, you're going to 00:51:40.050 --> 00:51:44.240 align:middle line:84% use that mechanic and effect the game state. 00:51:44.240 --> 00:51:46.900 align:middle line:84% The game state, the game's going to respond in some way. 00:51:46.900 --> 00:51:50.260 align:middle line:84% And how that decision you make corresponds to the result that 00:51:50.260 --> 00:51:54.120 align:middle line:84% you get back from the game state as could be interesting. 00:51:54.120 --> 00:51:56.270 align:middle line:84% If there's no correspondence at all, if it's completely 00:51:56.270 --> 00:52:02.236 align:middle line:84% random or, even worse, completely predictable, than 00:52:02.236 --> 00:52:05.475 align:middle line:84% these are not interesting options that you've got. 00:52:05.475 --> 00:52:06.670 align:middle line:90% And [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:52:06.670 --> 00:52:08.450 align:middle line:90% huh. 00:52:08.450 --> 00:52:12.759 align:middle line:84% That result logically made sense, but I didn't expect 00:52:12.759 --> 00:52:14.737 align:middle line:84% that it was going to do it, or that turned out 00:52:14.737 --> 00:52:16.116 align:middle line:90% better than I expected. 00:52:16.116 --> 00:52:17.366 align:middle line:84% Now it becomes really interesting. 00:52:17.366 --> 00:52:19.855 align:middle line:90% 00:52:19.855 --> 00:52:23.580 align:middle line:90% And if it's just a-- 00:52:23.580 --> 00:52:24.165 align:middle line:90% it could be anything. 00:52:24.165 --> 00:52:24.950 align:middle line:90% It could be awesome. 00:52:24.950 --> 00:52:26.950 align:middle line:84% I could win this game with this next-- 00:52:26.950 --> 00:52:29.340 align:middle line:90% oh, look I won. 00:52:29.340 --> 00:52:30.590 align:middle line:90% That's not interesting either. 00:52:30.590 --> 00:52:33.280 align:middle line:90% 00:52:33.280 --> 00:52:37.270 align:middle line:84% So if that's an interesting decision, [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:52:37.270 --> 00:52:42.360 align:middle line:84% calls it a meaningful decision, then the converse 00:52:42.360 --> 00:52:44.150 align:middle line:84% will be a meaningless decision. 00:52:44.150 --> 00:52:48.785 align:middle line:84% So like a game like what I just described. 00:52:48.785 --> 00:52:51.530 align:middle line:84% A decision where making a choice doesn't actually affect 00:52:51.530 --> 00:52:52.400 align:middle line:90% your outcome. 00:52:52.400 --> 00:52:53.350 align:middle line:90% Because [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:52:53.350 --> 00:52:57.028 align:middle line:84% makes card flip, or you had to do the card flip anyway. 00:52:57.028 --> 00:52:58.240 align:middle line:90% You can't choose. 00:52:58.240 --> 00:53:02.250 align:middle line:84% Then that's not a meaningful decision. 00:53:02.250 --> 00:53:05.000 align:middle line:84% Or you make a decision and have no change in the game 00:53:05.000 --> 00:53:06.431 align:middle line:90% state at all. 00:53:06.431 --> 00:53:08.340 align:middle line:90% That's not interesting either. 00:53:08.340 --> 00:53:16.630 align:middle line:84% So what you want in your game is something where you've got 00:53:16.630 --> 00:53:20.190 align:middle line:84% a system that's nonlinear, that's one that's still 00:53:20.190 --> 00:53:22.350 align:middle line:90% deterministic. 00:53:22.350 --> 00:53:27.870 align:middle line:84% All of your rules will result in some sort of outcome. 00:53:27.870 --> 00:53:31.140 align:middle line:84% But nonlinear enough that you can't really sort of 00:53:31.140 --> 00:53:35.380 align:middle line:84% anticipate the entire possibility space when you're 00:53:35.380 --> 00:53:39.350 align:middle line:90% making that decision. 00:53:39.350 --> 00:53:41.640 align:middle line:84% If you're thinking of games, that's a huge possibility 00:53:41.640 --> 00:53:44.230 align:middle line:84% space, then you, as the designer, your job is to try 00:53:44.230 --> 00:53:49.620 align:middle line:84% to make them most frazzled areas of possibility space 00:53:49.620 --> 00:53:51.700 align:middle line:90% interesting and fun. 00:53:51.700 --> 00:53:56.816 align:middle line:84% So actually do folks know the phrase possibility space. 00:53:56.816 --> 00:54:02.690 align:middle line:84% Yeah, and if you think of a game as just a series of terms 00:54:02.690 --> 00:54:04.540 align:middle line:90% or series of decisions. 00:54:04.540 --> 00:54:08.340 align:middle line:84% Then possibility space is basically every single result 00:54:08.340 --> 00:54:11.290 align:middle line:84% that would come out from every single legal 00:54:11.290 --> 00:54:13.340 align:middle line:90% decision in your game. 00:54:13.340 --> 00:54:16.350 align:middle line:84% Some of them are going to make sense. 00:54:16.350 --> 00:54:18.190 align:middle line:90% Like-- 00:54:18.190 --> 00:54:20.960 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 00:54:20.960 --> 00:54:22.520 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: In process, which now I'm getting back to the 00:54:22.520 --> 00:54:24.782 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:54:24.782 --> 00:54:31.650 align:middle line:84% Someone's got zero and zero, and it's my turn. 00:54:31.650 --> 00:54:34.030 align:middle line:84% Putting in actually what makes sense. 00:54:34.030 --> 00:54:38.200 align:middle line:84% Putting it anywhere else doesn't make any sense. 00:54:38.200 --> 00:54:42.720 align:middle line:84% So I would argue that putting an X anywhere really isn't-- 00:54:42.720 --> 00:54:45.939 align:middle line:84% well it is part of the possibility space, because I 00:54:45.939 --> 00:54:48.660 align:middle line:84% could put it here, here, here, here or here. 00:54:48.660 --> 00:54:52.400 align:middle line:84% You as a game designer, your job is to make sure that the 00:54:52.400 --> 00:54:57.644 align:middle line:84% things that people won't naturally do are interesting. 00:54:57.644 --> 00:55:01.430 align:middle line:84% You do not have necessarily any responsibility for 00:55:01.430 --> 00:55:07.340 align:middle line:84% somebody who's just trying to play your game in a way that's 00:55:07.340 --> 00:55:10.770 align:middle line:90% entirely not what you planned. 00:55:10.770 --> 00:55:14.410 align:middle line:84% Say somebody plays one of these card games and says, 00:55:14.410 --> 00:55:18.600 align:middle line:84% well I'm just going to play all my card face up. 00:55:18.600 --> 00:55:21.036 align:middle line:84% Those specific rules that says that I have to bite my hand, 00:55:21.036 --> 00:55:22.370 align:middle line:90% but [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:55:22.370 --> 00:55:25.142 align:middle line:84% You don't really need to keep it for that. 00:55:25.142 --> 00:55:31.118 align:middle line:84% Nice to have a rule that explains, OK, this is what you 00:55:31.118 --> 00:55:35.820 align:middle line:84% should hide your cards is crucial to your game. 00:55:35.820 --> 00:55:38.622 align:middle line:84% But for the most part, when somebody plays your game in a 00:55:38.622 --> 00:55:44.406 align:middle line:84% way that doesn't logically make sense, you're not really 00:55:44.406 --> 00:55:47.298 align:middle line:84% obliged to make sure that they have fun. 00:55:47.298 --> 00:55:50.010 align:middle line:84% On the other hand when people are making rational, if you 00:55:50.010 --> 00:55:52.445 align:middle line:84% are making rational decisions-- 00:55:52.445 --> 00:55:55.990 align:middle line:84% somebody puts an x here, and then the next move goes on and 00:55:55.990 --> 00:56:01.680 align:middle line:84% you design your game, then it's your job to make sure 00:56:01.680 --> 00:56:05.768 align:middle line:84% that OK, within the realm of the things that are legally 00:56:05.768 --> 00:56:09.212 align:middle line:84% good, and strategically make sense, we're going to try to 00:56:09.212 --> 00:56:10.476 align:middle line:84% make that game as interesting as possible. 00:56:10.476 --> 00:56:11.726 align:middle line:90% That's your job. 00:56:11.726 --> 00:56:19.840 align:middle line:90% 00:56:19.840 --> 00:56:26.303 align:middle line:84% So in order to sort of like help you figure out how to get 00:56:26.303 --> 00:56:31.031 align:middle line:84% that, the reading from [UNINTELLIGIBLE] today, 00:56:31.031 --> 00:56:34.799 align:middle line:84% introduce a few terms, if you've already taken game 00:56:34.799 --> 00:56:37.750 align:middle line:84% theory and economic class or a math course, you probably 00:56:37.750 --> 00:56:41.126 align:middle line:84% already know these in far more detail than you necessarily 00:56:41.126 --> 00:56:43.541 align:middle line:84% need it for the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] is useful. 00:56:43.541 --> 00:56:53.480 align:middle line:84% But utility it's a very useful concept. 00:56:53.480 --> 00:56:55.520 align:middle line:84% It's difficult to quantify sometimes, but you're talking 00:56:55.520 --> 00:56:59.270 align:middle line:84% about just like regular game design as opposed to the pure 00:56:59.270 --> 00:57:02.084 align:middle line:90% mathematic thought experiment. 00:57:02.084 --> 00:57:13.150 align:middle line:84% But a basic idea is if utility is like how winning a move is. 00:57:13.150 --> 00:57:16.482 align:middle line:84% Is the likelihood that something is going to actually 00:57:16.482 --> 00:57:17.440 align:middle line:90% call you a winner. 00:57:17.440 --> 00:57:18.715 align:middle line:84% And in some ways, it's a measure of the games that 00:57:18.715 --> 00:57:20.380 align:middle line:90% you're [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:57:20.380 --> 00:57:24.820 align:middle line:90% So [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 00:57:24.820 --> 00:57:28.020 align:middle line:84% example has this like ridiculous game where you 00:57:28.020 --> 00:57:32.125 align:middle line:84% guess whether somebody has heads or tails. 00:57:32.125 --> 00:57:35.083 align:middle line:84% And the person's like literally just choosing 00:57:35.083 --> 00:57:37.560 align:middle line:84% whether it's going to be a heads or a tails, 00:57:37.560 --> 00:57:41.230 align:middle line:90% and you just guess. 00:57:41.230 --> 00:57:48.278 align:middle line:84% The idea being if [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:57:48.278 --> 00:57:53.158 align:middle line:84% So this is the guesser, this is the flipper. 00:57:53.158 --> 00:57:56.574 align:middle line:90% 00:57:56.574 --> 00:57:59.262 align:middle line:84% So if the guesser guesses right, the 00:57:59.262 --> 00:58:01.445 align:middle line:90% guesser gets a point. 00:58:01.445 --> 00:58:07.510 align:middle line:84% And that's a choice of [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:58:07.510 --> 00:58:13.673 align:middle line:84% If the flipper chooses tails, the guesser chooses tails, the 00:58:13.673 --> 00:58:15.541 align:middle line:90% guesser will get one. 00:58:15.541 --> 00:58:18.860 align:middle line:90% And if not, then it reverses. 00:58:18.860 --> 00:58:25.009 align:middle line:84% So the flipper again gets the penny if the 00:58:25.009 --> 00:58:27.390 align:middle line:90% guesser gets it wrong. 00:58:27.390 --> 00:58:30.365 align:middle line:84% So you can sort of tell that, just by looking at this, this 00:58:30.365 --> 00:58:31.490 align:middle line:90% is a ridiculous game. 00:58:31.490 --> 00:58:35.738 align:middle line:84% It's like at best, your average over multiple games is 00:58:35.738 --> 00:58:37.600 align:middle line:90% just going to be zero. 00:58:37.600 --> 00:58:39.560 align:middle line:84% On average it's just going to [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 00:58:39.560 --> 00:58:42.760 align:middle line:90% 00:58:42.760 --> 00:58:50.365 align:middle line:84% And you use this as example to describe how we can come up 00:58:50.365 --> 00:58:52.779 align:middle line:84% with a strategy where you're not basically doing the same 00:58:52.779 --> 00:58:53.690 align:middle line:90% thing all the time. 00:58:53.690 --> 00:58:56.840 align:middle line:84% In this particular case, he's advocating that the best way 00:58:56.840 --> 00:59:01.484 align:middle line:84% to win this game is pretty much to break even in this 00:59:01.484 --> 00:59:04.300 align:middle line:84% game, and that's to just play it randomly. 00:59:04.300 --> 00:59:06.750 align:middle line:84% Every single time just really caught up in it. 00:59:06.750 --> 00:59:09.055 align:middle line:84% As soon as you get consistence, and either you'll 00:59:09.055 --> 00:59:11.750 align:middle line:84% get this for your flips, then you are now 00:59:11.750 --> 00:59:13.000 align:middle line:90% in a different package. 00:59:13.000 --> 00:59:16.410 align:middle line:90% 00:59:16.410 --> 00:59:19.971 align:middle line:84% But what you're trying to do in-- 00:59:19.971 --> 00:59:24.512 align:middle line:84% but in this particular case, the likelihood of whether it 00:59:24.512 --> 00:59:26.845 align:middle line:84% is a heads or a tail, and you're actually doing it 00:59:26.845 --> 00:59:32.480 align:middle line:84% randomly, but if you throw a kink and say, well if it most 00:59:32.480 --> 00:59:38.750 align:middle line:84% comes up heads, instead of winning one penny, you win one 00:59:38.750 --> 00:59:40.000 align:middle line:90% million dollars or something. 00:59:40.000 --> 00:59:42.410 align:middle line:90% 00:59:42.410 --> 00:59:48.701 align:middle line:84% There's certainly the probability that the flipper 00:59:48.701 --> 00:59:52.284 align:middle line:84% is going to choose heads, drops it, drops 00:59:52.284 --> 00:59:53.228 align:middle line:90% like rubber, right? 00:59:53.228 --> 00:59:56.060 align:middle line:90% Not a wise strategy. 00:59:56.060 --> 01:00:01.520 align:middle line:84% If a flipper chooses heads 50% of the time, then the guesser 01:00:01.520 --> 01:00:04.100 align:middle line:84% is going to be winning several million dollars pretty soon. 01:00:04.100 --> 01:00:07.058 align:middle line:84% They'll be losing a couple of pennies once in a while, sure. 01:00:07.058 --> 01:00:10.509 align:middle line:84% fine, I'll lose a couple of pennies, I'll just guess heads 01:00:10.509 --> 01:00:11.010 align:middle line:90% all the time. 01:00:11.010 --> 01:00:15.805 align:middle line:84% And if I know that they are flipping heads 50% of the 01:00:15.805 --> 01:00:19.340 align:middle line:84% time, I'm going to be getting [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:00:19.340 --> 01:00:23.910 align:middle line:84% So in this particular case, the way how the flipper 01:00:23.910 --> 01:00:30.560 align:middle line:84% balances it out is basically to flip tails about one 01:00:30.560 --> 01:00:31.640 align:middle line:90% million to one. 01:00:31.640 --> 01:00:34.550 align:middle line:84% I think it's more accurately it's like one million to two. 01:00:34.550 --> 01:00:38.336 align:middle line:84% So it's like for every one million tail flips, I'm just 01:00:38.336 --> 01:00:40.530 align:middle line:84% going to throw in a head flip every once in a while just 01:00:40.530 --> 01:00:43.350 align:middle line:84% don't force the guesser to occasionally guess heads. 01:00:43.350 --> 01:00:48.633 align:middle line:84% Because if the guesser knows the flipper will be crazy to 01:00:48.633 --> 01:00:51.856 align:middle line:84% guess heads all the time, and does tails all the time, then 01:00:51.856 --> 01:00:54.165 align:middle line:84% the guesser just guesses tails all the time, and after 50 01:00:54.165 --> 01:00:57.550 align:middle line:90% games the guesser is ahead. 01:00:57.550 --> 01:01:01.220 align:middle line:84% So the idea is every once in a while you throw in a head. 01:01:01.220 --> 01:01:08.648 align:middle line:84% And it's roughly the opposite probability of the ability. 01:01:08.648 --> 01:01:10.600 align:middle line:90% Approximately. 01:01:10.600 --> 01:01:13.034 align:middle line:84% The numbers don't quite work out that easy. 01:01:13.034 --> 01:01:16.589 align:middle line:84% But it's I guess in the scale that I'm using right now, one 01:01:16.589 --> 01:01:19.196 align:middle line:90% million to one. 01:01:19.196 --> 01:01:23.164 align:middle line:84% And when you're talking about balancing a game, if you can't 01:01:23.164 --> 01:01:26.910 align:middle line:84% actually break down a decision in your game, say a particular 01:01:26.910 --> 01:01:31.210 align:middle line:84% decision that a player has got to fake given a certain hand 01:01:31.210 --> 01:01:32.840 align:middle line:90% or having a certain card. 01:01:32.840 --> 01:01:37.670 align:middle line:84% And now they can make one or two or three decisions. 01:01:37.670 --> 01:01:40.040 align:middle line:84% And knowing the card distribution well enough 01:01:40.040 --> 01:01:43.444 align:middle line:84% saying well, 30% of the time decision A 01:01:43.444 --> 01:01:45.430 align:middle line:90% is going to be good. 01:01:45.430 --> 01:01:47.740 align:middle line:84% 20% of the times decision B is going to be good. 01:01:47.740 --> 01:01:51.660 align:middle line:84% And the other 50%, it's going to be decision C. 01:01:51.660 --> 01:01:56.480 align:middle line:84% Then a balanced game, at least one definition of it, is that 01:01:56.480 --> 01:01:59.950 align:middle line:84% the utility of all those decisions, the benefit that 01:01:59.950 --> 01:02:02.320 align:middle line:84% you're going to get out of that maybe is 01:02:02.320 --> 01:02:04.415 align:middle line:90% raw, winning points. 01:02:04.415 --> 01:02:07.740 align:middle line:84% Victory points that you need to be able to get in the game. 01:02:07.740 --> 01:02:09.640 align:middle line:90% Maybe some sort of cash. 01:02:09.640 --> 01:02:12.380 align:middle line:84% The benefit of actually making that decision should probably 01:02:12.380 --> 01:02:17.010 align:middle line:84% be in reverse proportion of those numbers. 01:02:17.010 --> 01:02:23.432 align:middle line:84% So the thing that you will pick 50% of the time, that you 01:02:23.432 --> 01:02:24.682 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:02:24.682 --> 01:02:31.240 align:middle line:90% 01:02:31.240 --> 01:02:44.696 align:middle line:84% So say you've got decision A, B, C. And-- 01:02:44.696 --> 01:02:47.684 align:middle line:90% 01:02:47.684 --> 01:02:52.664 align:middle line:84% actually, I'm not sure if I need [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:02:52.664 --> 01:02:55.652 align:middle line:84% I'm actually really bad at this. 01:02:55.652 --> 01:02:58.142 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:02:58.142 --> 01:03:02.624 align:middle line:84% C is 50% of the time C is good. 01:03:02.624 --> 01:03:05.114 align:middle line:90% 30% of the time A is good. 01:03:05.114 --> 01:03:06.364 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:03:06.364 --> 01:03:11.550 align:middle line:90% 01:03:11.550 --> 01:03:14.840 align:middle line:84% If anyone knows how to do this better than me, 01:03:14.840 --> 01:03:15.780 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:03:15.780 --> 01:03:17.660 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: What are you trying to do? 01:03:17.660 --> 01:03:23.260 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So the idea is that A should give you 01:03:23.260 --> 01:03:25.930 align:middle line:84% disproportion will be higher than it is. 01:03:25.930 --> 01:03:27.706 align:middle line:84% Not disproportionally, but should give you 01:03:27.706 --> 01:03:34.631 align:middle line:84% proportionately higher than it did in decision C. So if C 01:03:34.631 --> 01:03:36.074 align:middle line:90% gives you-- 01:03:36.074 --> 01:03:38.960 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:03:38.960 --> 01:03:39.441 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Say what? 01:03:39.441 --> 01:03:40.691 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:03:40.691 --> 01:03:43.770 align:middle line:90% 01:03:43.770 --> 01:03:48.250 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I'm just picking pure probability right now. 01:03:48.250 --> 01:03:49.740 align:middle line:84% Assuming that you're just playing a game with this. 01:03:49.740 --> 01:03:51.840 align:middle line:84% They're not playing as we presume 01:03:51.840 --> 01:03:53.680 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:03:53.680 --> 01:03:59.704 align:middle line:84% So say doing decision C gives you five points. 01:03:59.704 --> 01:04:01.450 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: You should do it with 30 the numbers would work 01:04:01.450 --> 01:04:02.040 align:middle line:90% out better. 01:04:02.040 --> 01:04:02.430 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Say what? 01:04:02.430 --> 01:04:04.406 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: If you use 30 the numbers will work out better. 01:04:04.406 --> 01:04:05.656 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: OK. 01:04:05.656 --> 01:04:08.390 align:middle line:90% 01:04:08.390 --> 01:04:10.382 align:middle line:90% 30 coins for 50? 01:04:10.382 --> 01:04:11.876 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:04:11.876 --> 01:04:13.126 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:04:13.126 --> 01:04:19.370 align:middle line:90% 01:04:19.370 --> 01:04:25.150 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So if you choose B, then what sort of benefit 01:04:25.150 --> 01:04:27.086 align:middle line:90% should you be getting? 01:04:27.086 --> 01:04:29.506 align:middle line:90% About 13? 01:04:29.506 --> 01:04:31.030 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:04:31.030 --> 01:04:31.380 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: 20. 01:04:31.380 --> 01:04:32.374 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: 20. 01:04:32.374 --> 01:04:36.847 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: But B only works less of the time. 01:04:36.847 --> 01:04:38.835 align:middle line:90% This is [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:04:38.835 --> 01:04:40.330 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Oh, great. 01:04:40.330 --> 01:04:41.096 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Oh. 01:04:41.096 --> 01:04:42.346 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:04:42.346 --> 01:04:45.432 align:middle line:90% 01:04:45.432 --> 01:04:48.396 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It would be 48, right? 01:04:48.396 --> 01:04:50.372 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yup. 01:04:50.372 --> 01:04:51.360 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: I would say 50? 01:04:51.360 --> 01:04:52.348 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: I'm going with 50. 01:04:52.348 --> 01:04:53.336 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: I'm going with 50. 01:04:53.336 --> 01:04:55.312 align:middle line:84% You want the multiplication in the probability 01:04:55.312 --> 01:04:56.300 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:04:56.300 --> 01:04:58.276 align:middle line:84% So when you multiply them [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:04:58.276 --> 01:05:00.252 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: And what would A do? 01:05:00.252 --> 01:05:01.502 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:05:01.502 --> 01:05:05.720 align:middle line:90% 01:05:05.720 --> 01:05:10.120 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: And this makes it a situation where choosing A, B 01:05:10.120 --> 01:05:14.560 align:middle line:90% or C becomes fairly even. 01:05:14.560 --> 01:05:18.800 align:middle line:84% You could choose A, and you could get and 20% of the time 01:05:18.800 --> 01:05:21.550 align:middle line:84% you've got a pretty good payout. 01:05:21.550 --> 01:05:23.900 align:middle line:84% I'm really terrible at math, so I'm going to 01:05:23.900 --> 01:05:24.400 align:middle line:90% see if this is right. 01:05:24.400 --> 01:05:29.865 align:middle line:84% But this makes it so that you don't have an immediate 01:05:29.865 --> 01:05:31.975 align:middle line:84% dominant strategy just like looking at your cards. 01:05:31.975 --> 01:05:34.086 align:middle line:84% It's like well, obviously, I'm just going to do 01:05:34.086 --> 01:05:36.515 align:middle line:90% this all the time. 01:05:36.515 --> 01:05:39.305 align:middle line:84% This is very, very, very basic. 01:05:39.305 --> 01:05:43.315 align:middle line:84% And I crap at doing this other thing. 01:05:43.315 --> 01:05:47.000 align:middle line:84% But once in a while, it's a good idea to actually just 01:05:47.000 --> 01:05:49.360 align:middle line:90% write out the numbers. 01:05:49.360 --> 01:05:56.510 align:middle line:84% OK, I know that my opponent is always going to have five 01:05:56.510 --> 01:05:57.824 align:middle line:90% cards in hand. 01:05:57.824 --> 01:06:00.910 align:middle line:84% And out of the five cards they're going to have some 01:06:00.910 --> 01:06:06.479 align:middle line:84% combination of cards that's going to be result in the 01:06:06.479 --> 01:06:11.792 align:middle line:84% probability of A, B, C affects [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:06:11.792 --> 01:06:15.780 align:middle line:84% So I have part A, I have part B, I have part C. I could play 01:06:15.780 --> 01:06:19.470 align:middle line:84% any one of those, and making that decision, you want to 01:06:19.470 --> 01:06:26.980 align:middle line:84% give them rewards that are in inverse proportion to this. 01:06:26.980 --> 01:06:30.200 align:middle line:84% That's one way that you can balance a game. 01:06:30.200 --> 01:06:34.700 align:middle line:90% It is very much a first stab. 01:06:34.700 --> 01:06:39.728 align:middle line:84% This is how you mathematically take that first stab, and then 01:06:39.728 --> 01:06:44.852 align:middle line:84% you actually need to test it out, out of that. 01:06:44.852 --> 01:06:48.268 align:middle line:84% You can't actually just assumed that that's 01:06:48.268 --> 01:06:49.244 align:middle line:90% going to work out. 01:06:49.244 --> 01:06:52.690 align:middle line:84% But it can get you pretty close, which is kind of nice. 01:06:52.690 --> 01:06:57.070 align:middle line:84% If you're getting a situation where OK, they'll still seeing 01:06:57.070 --> 01:07:02.220 align:middle line:84% a dominant strategy, but it's only a small number 01:07:02.220 --> 01:07:04.204 align:middle line:84% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE], then you don't 01:07:04.204 --> 01:07:05.196 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:07:05.196 --> 01:07:08.668 align:middle line:84% Actually those can sometimes be the hardest kinds of games 01:07:08.668 --> 01:07:10.900 align:middle line:84% of balance because you keep making really, really small 01:07:10.900 --> 01:07:13.650 align:middle line:84% changes, and you know when you get them. 01:07:13.650 --> 01:07:14.900 align:middle line:84% But still, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:07:14.900 --> 01:07:18.312 align:middle line:90% 01:07:18.312 --> 01:07:22.776 align:middle line:84% That's really the only contact that I found utility to be a 01:07:22.776 --> 01:07:24.760 align:middle line:84% useful part of this [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:07:24.760 --> 01:07:29.720 align:middle line:90% 01:07:29.720 --> 01:07:32.696 align:middle line:84% It's an interesting concept to be able to talk about 01:07:32.696 --> 01:07:37.160 align:middle line:84% strategies, we talk about decisions making. 01:07:37.160 --> 01:07:40.136 align:middle line:84% When it actually comes to now I'm going to sit down and 01:07:40.136 --> 01:07:43.112 align:middle line:84% design a game, this is the only time when I'm actually 01:07:43.112 --> 01:07:44.640 align:middle line:90% using [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:07:44.640 --> 01:07:49.244 align:middle line:84% If you found better uses for utility, please by all means 01:07:49.244 --> 01:07:51.709 align:middle line:84% share it because I have not found any. 01:07:51.709 --> 01:08:00.090 align:middle line:90% 01:08:00.090 --> 01:08:04.034 align:middle line:90% That's pretty much all. 01:08:04.034 --> 01:08:09.457 align:middle line:90% 01:08:09.457 --> 01:08:11.922 align:middle line:90% Any questions? 01:08:11.922 --> 01:08:13.401 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: The utility. 01:08:13.401 --> 01:08:15.760 align:middle line:90% When we played the x game-- 01:08:15.760 --> 01:08:16.756 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Which one? 01:08:16.756 --> 01:08:19.370 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: The game where you can either click on tokens or 01:08:19.370 --> 01:08:19.744 align:middle line:90% roll the dice. 01:08:19.744 --> 01:08:21.238 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:08:21.238 --> 01:08:23.230 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: The one that [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:08:23.230 --> 01:08:24.724 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:08:24.724 --> 01:08:26.716 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. 01:08:26.716 --> 01:08:27.214 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 01:08:27.214 --> 01:08:28.708 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:08:28.708 --> 01:08:32.692 align:middle line:84% if you viewed the kind of strategy developed and the 01:08:32.692 --> 01:08:34.684 align:middle line:84% game we built based on different dice and things, 01:08:34.684 --> 01:08:36.676 align:middle line:84% that was kind of the utility model. 01:08:36.676 --> 01:08:38.170 align:middle line:84% That we're trying to maximize [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:08:38.170 --> 01:08:40.660 align:middle line:84% And if you win you expect your utility 01:08:40.660 --> 01:08:42.652 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:08:42.652 --> 01:08:45.640 align:middle line:84% And then like you can do a bunch of path [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:08:45.640 --> 01:08:49.126 align:middle line:84% to maximize these things [UNINTELLIGIBLE], which is-- 01:08:49.126 --> 01:08:50.170 align:middle line:90% I don't know. 01:08:50.170 --> 01:08:50.770 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:08:50.770 --> 01:08:55.080 align:middle line:84% I mean the thing about it though, of course, if the 01:08:55.080 --> 01:09:00.561 align:middle line:84% method you do basically says well the way to maximize our 01:09:00.561 --> 01:09:03.630 align:middle line:84% expected value is just to do the same thing all the time, 01:09:03.630 --> 01:09:07.490 align:middle line:84% and then that particular game, that's a very standard 01:09:07.490 --> 01:09:09.840 align:middle line:90% strategy that tends to work. 01:09:09.840 --> 01:09:12.859 align:middle line:84% Then you've got a game that's not interesting. 01:09:12.859 --> 01:09:16.439 align:middle line:84% Then you've got a game where those decisions that you're 01:09:16.439 --> 01:09:18.609 align:middle line:84% asking someone to make don't actually matter because 01:09:18.609 --> 01:09:20.930 align:middle line:90% there's [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:09:20.930 --> 01:09:27.420 align:middle line:84% So yeah, that game is a fine example of a game that you 01:09:27.420 --> 01:09:29.370 align:middle line:90% could use for work. 01:09:29.370 --> 01:09:31.319 align:middle line:84% I'm not going to say the broken game because that was 01:09:31.319 --> 01:09:34.894 align:middle line:84% specifically designed for the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:09:34.894 --> 01:09:36.840 align:middle line:90% that class act. 01:09:36.840 --> 01:09:40.530 align:middle line:84% Here's this game, now I'm going [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:09:40.530 --> 01:09:43.259 align:middle line:84% But yeah, that's a good game where the utility's pretty 01:09:43.259 --> 01:09:44.700 align:middle line:90% obvious, right? 01:09:44.700 --> 01:09:46.300 align:middle line:90% How far are we going to get? 01:09:46.300 --> 01:09:49.896 align:middle line:84% Well I could pick this token or I could roll the die, wait 01:09:49.896 --> 01:09:52.620 align:middle line:84% a minute, on average you all come out to be about the same. 01:09:52.620 --> 01:09:54.800 align:middle line:90% So it doesn't matter anymore. 01:09:54.800 --> 01:09:57.032 align:middle line:84% Why this decision is no longer interesting. 01:09:57.032 --> 01:09:59.462 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:09:59.462 --> 01:10:02.378 align:middle line:84% because the whole point was that you, the meaningful weave 01:10:02.378 --> 01:10:04.808 align:middle line:84% is that you're pulling at the variance table, right? 01:10:04.808 --> 01:10:07.238 align:middle line:84% Your expected values are the same. 01:10:07.238 --> 01:10:09.668 align:middle line:84% Both of the cases when you're doing just a kind of 01:10:09.668 --> 01:10:10.640 align:middle line:90% computation, right? 01:10:10.640 --> 01:10:11.126 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:10:11.126 --> 01:10:12.897 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Now I can [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:10:12.897 --> 01:10:16.376 align:middle line:84% Sometimes it's incredibly painful to not get the reward. 01:10:16.376 --> 01:10:18.861 align:middle line:84% Sometimes you just want consistency. 01:10:18.861 --> 01:10:21.843 align:middle line:84% So imagine in Settlers of Catan where you can go for a 01:10:21.843 --> 01:10:24.493 align:middle line:84% strategy where you have a diverse set of numbers that 01:10:24.493 --> 01:10:25.819 align:middle line:90% you can possibly rob. 01:10:25.819 --> 01:10:30.292 align:middle line:84% And before you can just get up and [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:10:30.292 --> 01:10:32.777 align:middle line:84% Usually it's better to go for consistency, because you'll 01:10:32.777 --> 01:10:34.268 align:middle line:90% get robbed. 01:10:34.268 --> 01:10:36.256 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: You can use a large range of numbers. 01:10:36.256 --> 01:10:37.250 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:10:37.250 --> 01:10:43.214 align:middle line:84% The chances you'll get a huge payoff off turn, and then a 01:10:43.214 --> 01:10:44.705 align:middle line:84% seven will be rolled before you get 01:10:44.705 --> 01:10:45.202 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:10:45.202 --> 01:10:46.693 align:middle line:84% They would have been better off generating 01:10:46.693 --> 01:10:47.687 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:10:47.687 --> 01:10:50.669 align:middle line:84% Even if the expectation you generate [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:10:50.669 --> 01:10:52.466 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: But in the back of your head you always know that 01:10:52.466 --> 01:10:55.288 align:middle line:84% you could go to the big payoff round. 01:10:55.288 --> 01:10:57.280 align:middle line:90% And usually in a game-- 01:10:57.280 --> 01:10:58.276 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: What I'm saying is there's a meaningful 01:10:58.276 --> 01:10:59.272 align:middle line:84% difference between these things. 01:10:59.272 --> 01:11:02.011 align:middle line:84% Even if your expected value/computation shows you 01:11:02.011 --> 01:11:03.256 align:middle line:84% that there [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:11:03.256 --> 01:11:05.248 align:middle line:84% strategies [UNINTELLIGIBLE], the variance 01:11:05.248 --> 01:11:07.240 align:middle line:90% can really be different. 01:11:07.240 --> 01:11:08.734 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:11:08.734 --> 01:11:09.730 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: The decisions are very different. 01:11:09.730 --> 01:11:11.888 align:middle line:84% If you're playing a three player version of Settlers you 01:11:11.888 --> 01:11:13.714 align:middle line:84% want to be equally very diverse. 01:11:13.714 --> 01:11:17.010 align:middle line:84% Whereas you imagine if there were a version of Settlers 01:11:17.010 --> 01:11:20.790 align:middle line:84% where there were 10 players, you would want to like cluster 01:11:20.790 --> 01:11:22.025 align:middle line:84% all around a couple different numbers. 01:11:22.025 --> 01:11:25.825 align:middle line:84% Because then it's unlikely that if everyone's diverse, 01:11:25.825 --> 01:11:26.775 align:middle line:90% everyone's not equal. 01:11:26.775 --> 01:11:28.555 align:middle line:84% So you'd rather have a little bit of a [UNINTELLIGIBLE], 01:11:28.555 --> 01:11:30.126 align:middle line:84% you'd be like way ahead of everybody. 01:11:30.126 --> 01:11:34.300 align:middle line:84% Than having just the [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:11:34.300 --> 01:11:35.760 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Well basically, again, 01:11:35.760 --> 01:11:37.865 align:middle line:90% counting on the huge payout. 01:11:37.865 --> 01:11:38.640 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:11:38.640 --> 01:11:40.435 align:middle line:84% But that comes out to like variance. 01:11:40.435 --> 01:11:42.467 align:middle line:84% And where the expected value of the resources you get, this 01:11:42.467 --> 01:11:47.135 align:middle line:84% is the same as the expected value of like winning the game 01:11:47.135 --> 01:11:49.115 align:middle line:84% where you're really trying to maximize 01:11:49.115 --> 01:11:50.365 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:11:50.365 --> 01:11:52.580 align:middle line:90% 01:11:52.580 --> 01:11:56.787 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: There was a really, really, really funny video 01:11:56.787 --> 01:12:01.770 align:middle line:84% that I didn't show you guys about how to win at a lottery. 01:12:01.770 --> 01:12:07.135 align:middle line:84% And they actually did trot out various facts, basically 01:12:07.135 --> 01:12:11.437 align:middle line:84% saying that oh, some percent of the time two numbers-- 01:12:11.437 --> 01:12:13.882 align:middle line:84% this is one of those lotteries where you pick six numbers, 01:12:13.882 --> 01:12:19.505 align:middle line:84% and the number of numbers that correspond will get you a 01:12:19.505 --> 01:12:20.239 align:middle line:90% certain payout. 01:12:20.239 --> 01:12:24.640 align:middle line:84% And it's like some percentage of the time you will get two 01:12:24.640 --> 01:12:28.389 align:middle line:84% numbers adjacent to each other, like 39 and 40 or 01:12:28.389 --> 01:12:31.682 align:middle line:84% something like that. and there's like that's all, you 01:12:31.682 --> 01:12:32.920 align:middle line:90% should pick two numbers. 01:12:32.920 --> 01:12:35.890 align:middle line:90% That makes no sense at all. 01:12:35.890 --> 01:12:37.140 align:middle line:90% Because [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:12:37.140 --> 01:12:41.335 align:middle line:90% 01:12:41.335 --> 01:12:45.320 align:middle line:84% In that particular case, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:12:45.320 --> 01:12:49.410 align:middle line:84% I think it was a good point to say, that you get to choose 01:12:49.410 --> 01:12:52.490 align:middle line:84% how much variance [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:12:52.490 --> 01:12:55.320 align:middle line:84% How much risk are you willing [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:12:55.320 --> 01:12:58.520 align:middle line:84% Because in a game like Settlers, the nice thing about 01:12:58.520 --> 01:13:01.940 align:middle line:84% it is if they're going for the big payout is it increases the 01:13:01.940 --> 01:13:04.735 align:middle line:84% risk and increases the payout [UNINTELLIGIBLE], 01:13:04.735 --> 01:13:07.717 align:middle line:90% or potential payout. 01:13:07.717 --> 01:13:09.705 align:middle line:84% So that's what's nice about it. 01:13:09.705 --> 01:13:12.190 align:middle line:90% That's a nice balancing act. 01:13:12.190 --> 01:13:14.178 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I don't know if anyone's played-- it's not 01:13:14.178 --> 01:13:15.669 align:middle line:84% really a game, it's more of a math problem. 01:13:15.669 --> 01:13:32.590 align:middle line:90% 01:13:32.590 --> 01:13:33.982 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I haven't played that one. 01:13:33.982 --> 01:13:35.232 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:13:35.232 --> 01:13:37.360 align:middle line:90% 01:13:37.360 --> 01:13:38.450 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: It's pretty cool. 01:13:38.450 --> 01:13:41.394 align:middle line:84% Can you put that up on the board maybe? 01:13:41.394 --> 01:13:41.890 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:13:41.890 --> 01:13:43.874 align:middle line:90% I can tell you right now. 01:13:43.874 --> 01:13:47.205 align:middle line:84% It's first cube has three 5s, the three 2s. 01:13:47.205 --> 01:13:49.012 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Oh, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:13:49.012 --> 01:13:50.500 align:middle line:90% Three 5s and three 3s? 01:13:50.500 --> 01:13:51.988 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Three 2s. 01:13:51.988 --> 01:13:53.238 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:13:53.238 --> 01:13:56.452 align:middle line:90% 01:13:56.452 --> 01:13:58.932 align:middle line:90% One of them is 5, 4 and a 1. 01:13:58.932 --> 01:14:01.412 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: 5, 4-- 01:14:01.412 --> 01:14:03.952 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: They all have expected value of 3 and 1/2. 01:14:03.952 --> 01:14:05.440 align:middle line:90% same as the regular value. 01:14:05.440 --> 01:14:08.912 align:middle line:90% Last one is one 6 and five 3s. 01:14:08.912 --> 01:14:11.392 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: One 6 and five 3s. 01:14:11.392 --> 01:14:15.360 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: They all have the expected value of 3 and 1/2. 01:14:15.360 --> 01:14:20.320 align:middle line:84% Now, the game is first player chooses a die, and the second 01:14:20.320 --> 01:14:21.808 align:middle line:90% player chooses a die. 01:14:21.808 --> 01:14:24.784 align:middle line:84% And then [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:14:24.784 --> 01:14:27.290 align:middle line:90% 01:14:27.290 --> 01:14:28.442 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Just [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:14:28.442 --> 01:14:28.890 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:14:28.890 --> 01:14:31.406 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: And then do you re-roll with the game dice? 01:14:31.406 --> 01:14:31.899 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: No. 01:14:31.899 --> 01:14:35.843 align:middle line:84% The first player chooses the die, and the second player 01:14:35.843 --> 01:14:36.193 align:middle line:84% sees what the first person chose and then the second 01:14:36.193 --> 01:14:37.443 align:middle line:90% player chooses a die. 01:14:37.443 --> 01:14:39.787 align:middle line:90% 01:14:39.787 --> 01:14:42.087 align:middle line:84% So truthfully, the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] take it 01:14:42.087 --> 01:14:44.224 align:middle line:84% reverse, and the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] second, even 01:14:44.224 --> 01:14:46.196 align:middle line:84% though they [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:14:46.196 --> 01:14:48.320 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: I see. 01:14:48.320 --> 01:14:50.208 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: If you're first, you want to [UNINTELLIGIBLE] the 01:14:50.208 --> 01:14:52.530 align:middle line:90% board, is that right? 01:14:52.530 --> 01:14:56.830 align:middle line:84% But five 2s beats the 4s, but [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:14:56.830 --> 01:14:59.830 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: They can probably just use the 4s for 01:14:59.830 --> 01:15:01.330 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:15:01.330 --> 01:15:04.830 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It's the first player tries [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:15:04.830 --> 01:15:06.330 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I don't know exactly, but I'm pretty sure 01:15:06.330 --> 01:15:07.830 align:middle line:84% if you're first, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:15:07.830 --> 01:15:10.330 align:middle line:90% 01:15:10.330 --> 01:15:10.830 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:15:10.830 --> 01:15:11.720 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:15:11.720 --> 01:15:14.660 align:middle line:84% It's three 6s so dominated by the 4s, but it's like 01:15:14.660 --> 01:15:15.370 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:15:15.370 --> 01:15:16.250 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:15:16.250 --> 01:15:19.238 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:15:19.238 --> 01:15:21.230 align:middle line:90% The second always wins. 01:15:21.230 --> 01:15:22.730 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:15:22.730 --> 01:15:25.070 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: They can probabilistically win. 01:15:25.070 --> 01:15:26.968 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So what you're describing is a strategy for 01:15:26.968 --> 01:15:28.254 align:middle line:90% the second player. 01:15:28.254 --> 01:15:32.700 align:middle line:84% Basically, if the first player can [UNINTELLIGIBLE], you pick 01:15:32.700 --> 01:15:35.356 align:middle line:84% something, and on average you will win 01:15:35.356 --> 01:15:36.580 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:15:36.580 --> 01:15:38.585 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: It would be more interesting if you did it in 01:15:38.585 --> 01:15:40.195 align:middle line:84% two rounds [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:15:40.195 --> 01:15:42.610 align:middle line:84% everyone takes a die sequentially. 01:15:42.610 --> 01:15:45.025 align:middle line:84% And then they roll to see who goes first. 01:15:45.025 --> 01:15:47.980 align:middle line:84% Because then you're aiming to try to like hit the middle. 01:15:47.980 --> 01:15:49.912 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Will you do that one more time? 01:15:49.912 --> 01:15:54.600 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: So you randomly decide who goes first. 01:15:54.600 --> 01:15:57.785 align:middle line:84% So the first person chooses a die, and then the next person 01:15:57.785 --> 01:15:59.590 align:middle line:84% chooses a die, then next person chooses die. 01:15:59.590 --> 01:16:03.680 align:middle line:84% And they roll to determine the order of the actual game. 01:16:03.680 --> 01:16:07.102 align:middle line:84% So what you're trying to roll for is to get in second place 01:16:07.102 --> 01:16:10.281 align:middle line:84% rather than first because the optimal strategy 01:16:10.281 --> 01:16:14.200 align:middle line:90% is the second choice. 01:16:14.200 --> 01:16:15.260 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Oh that's bizzare. 01:16:15.260 --> 01:16:16.785 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Yeah, but the problem is if you take 6 and 01:16:16.785 --> 01:16:19.602 align:middle line:84% 3, you also have a pretty high chance of 01:16:19.602 --> 01:16:20.568 align:middle line:90% getting the last one. 01:16:20.568 --> 01:16:22.017 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:16:22.017 --> 01:16:24.915 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Well yeah, [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:16:24.915 --> 01:16:27.330 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:16:27.330 --> 01:16:29.262 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Evolution is something which happens 01:16:29.262 --> 01:16:30.730 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] is well. 01:16:30.730 --> 01:16:34.440 align:middle line:84% OK, you show that it's clearly a dominant strategy, but how 01:16:34.440 --> 01:16:36.887 align:middle line:84% you get to deciding what [UNINTELLIGIBLE] strategy to 01:16:36.887 --> 01:16:39.505 align:middle line:84% use gave meaningful information because 01:16:39.505 --> 01:16:40.499 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:16:40.499 --> 01:16:41.990 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: That's possible as well. 01:16:41.990 --> 01:16:44.940 align:middle line:90% 01:16:44.940 --> 01:16:46.950 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: Once it gets to that point, then you want to 01:16:46.950 --> 01:16:50.304 align:middle line:84% think about well maybe there's something you can do to your 01:16:50.304 --> 01:16:52.378 align:middle line:84% original game to make it easier for people to get to 01:16:52.378 --> 01:16:54.696 align:middle line:90% that second level of the game. 01:16:54.696 --> 01:16:59.910 align:middle line:84% And you don't necessarily always have to, because there 01:16:59.910 --> 01:17:02.280 align:middle line:84% are going to be people who are just going to have fun at this 01:17:02.280 --> 01:17:05.470 align:middle line:84% point, to sort of like playing this game as opposed to 01:17:05.470 --> 01:17:08.800 align:middle line:90% figuring out who goes first. 01:17:08.800 --> 01:17:11.600 align:middle line:84% But it'll be interesting if in the process of designing this 01:17:11.600 --> 01:17:14.680 align:middle line:84% game, you've got rules to actually let people decide who 01:17:14.680 --> 01:17:15.165 align:middle line:90% goes first. 01:17:15.165 --> 01:17:18.560 align:middle line:84% And the people who haven't figured out the dominant 01:17:18.560 --> 01:17:22.242 align:middle line:84% strategy, this is where the game is at. 01:17:22.242 --> 01:17:26.130 align:middle line:84% Just like the first player has an equal [UNINTELLIGIBLE] as 01:17:26.130 --> 01:17:27.600 align:middle line:90% the second player. 01:17:27.600 --> 01:17:31.860 align:middle line:84% And then later on when people start to realize that there is 01:17:31.860 --> 01:17:34.540 align:middle line:84% actually a strategy, they got playing the other game of who 01:17:34.540 --> 01:17:35.730 align:middle line:90% goes first. 01:17:35.730 --> 01:17:39.860 align:middle line:84% But if you design your game right, then you can make it 01:17:39.860 --> 01:17:40.690 align:middle line:90% all the same game. 01:17:40.690 --> 01:17:42.385 align:middle line:84% It's just which set of rules that they're most concerned 01:17:42.385 --> 01:17:45.110 align:middle line:84% about and you could [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:17:45.110 --> 01:17:48.735 align:middle line:84% It would be nice if your games could do that. 01:17:48.735 --> 01:17:51.669 align:middle line:84% Let's see how [UNINTELLIGIBLE] they get. 01:17:51.669 --> 01:17:55.100 align:middle line:90% 01:17:55.100 --> 01:17:57.650 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] move away from game period 01:17:57.650 --> 01:17:59.820 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE]? 01:17:59.820 --> 01:18:01.920 align:middle line:84% Are you even going to mention Prisoner's Dillema because I 01:18:01.920 --> 01:18:05.065 align:middle line:84% think that's a great tool to try to look at dramatic 01:18:05.065 --> 01:18:08.045 align:middle line:84% tension and interesting discussions for players. 01:18:08.045 --> 01:18:10.610 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: That does happen often in strategy games. 01:18:10.610 --> 01:18:11.480 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:18:11.480 --> 01:18:12.436 align:middle line:90% Well-- 01:18:12.436 --> 01:18:14.826 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Not in a game where you're [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:18:14.826 --> 01:18:17.220 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: There are two arguments about that one. 01:18:17.220 --> 01:18:19.270 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:18:19.270 --> 01:18:22.470 align:middle line:84% I guess we actually have human beings playing. 01:18:22.470 --> 01:18:25.106 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So the Prisoner's Dillema as 01:18:25.106 --> 01:18:27.890 align:middle line:90% covered in the reading. 01:18:27.890 --> 01:18:29.840 align:middle line:84% I don't know the exact numbers. 01:18:29.840 --> 01:18:32.942 align:middle line:84% But basically you've got two people-- 01:18:32.942 --> 01:18:35.412 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Well they didn't say exact numbers 01:18:35.412 --> 01:18:36.894 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:18:36.894 --> 01:18:38.376 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I think we have a chart. 01:18:38.376 --> 01:18:40.860 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] punishment [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:18:40.860 --> 01:18:43.620 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: In fact, I may be thinking of [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:18:43.620 --> 01:18:45.620 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:18:45.620 --> 01:18:48.916 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: The one that I know is that-- 01:18:48.916 --> 01:18:58.608 align:middle line:84% let's see, I know defect is one of the cases. 01:18:58.608 --> 01:19:01.398 align:middle line:84% Anybody remember what the term we use for cooperating? 01:19:01.398 --> 01:19:02.648 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:19:02.648 --> 01:19:06.278 align:middle line:90% 01:19:06.278 --> 01:19:06.766 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:19:06.766 --> 01:19:08.016 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:19:08.016 --> 01:19:12.134 align:middle line:90% 01:19:12.134 --> 01:19:17.080 align:middle line:84% So if both people cooperate, they get something like what, 01:19:17.080 --> 01:19:20.760 align:middle line:90% five years in prison? 01:19:20.760 --> 01:19:21.685 align:middle line:90% So it's like the town. 01:19:21.685 --> 01:19:23.870 align:middle line:84% OK, we get two people who are involved in the same 01:19:23.870 --> 01:19:24.830 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:19:24.830 --> 01:19:27.475 align:middle line:84% and they both get caught but then there's not enough 01:19:27.475 --> 01:19:30.060 align:middle line:84% evidence to throw both of them away for a real long time. 01:19:30.060 --> 01:19:34.932 align:middle line:84% So the basic idea is each of them is separated, and then 01:19:34.932 --> 01:19:38.350 align:middle line:84% you give us information on the other guy. 01:19:38.350 --> 01:19:42.072 align:middle line:84% Then we will reduce your sentence, and that other guy 01:19:42.072 --> 01:19:47.808 align:middle line:84% is going to get hammered with a sentence but we'll give you 01:19:47.808 --> 01:19:50.970 align:middle line:90% a get out of jail free card. 01:19:50.970 --> 01:19:54.990 align:middle line:84% But if you don't tell us anything, if you cooperate 01:19:54.990 --> 01:19:59.322 align:middle line:84% with your partner, and don't give us the evidence that we 01:19:59.322 --> 01:20:01.656 align:middle line:84% need, we still have enough evidence to put you away for 01:20:01.656 --> 01:20:01.990 align:middle line:90% five years. 01:20:01.990 --> 01:20:03.490 align:middle line:90% So that's [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:20:03.490 --> 01:20:05.490 align:middle line:84% Both of you will go away for five years. 01:20:05.490 --> 01:20:12.100 align:middle line:84% Now, if you do decide to give us the information, then you 01:20:12.100 --> 01:20:16.250 align:middle line:84% really get away with just one year in prison. 01:20:16.250 --> 01:20:21.850 align:middle line:84% But the the guy you just ratted on 01:20:21.850 --> 01:20:23.290 align:middle line:90% goes away for 30 years. 01:20:23.290 --> 01:20:25.690 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:20:25.690 --> 01:20:29.970 align:middle line:84% And of course, if both of you decide to rat on each other, 01:20:29.970 --> 01:20:31.970 align:middle line:84% oh now we've got [UNINTELLIGIBLE] charges. 01:20:31.970 --> 01:20:32.920 align:middle line:90% That's awesome. 01:20:32.920 --> 01:20:35.800 align:middle line:84% Both of you go away for a very long time. 01:20:35.800 --> 01:20:37.050 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:20:37.050 --> 01:20:39.170 align:middle line:90% 01:20:39.170 --> 01:20:40.360 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: You need to make [UNINTELLIGIBLE] defecting 01:20:40.360 --> 01:20:41.460 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:20:41.460 --> 01:20:44.323 align:middle line:84% a person cooperating and another defecting. 01:20:44.323 --> 01:20:45.285 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Oh, right. 01:20:45.285 --> 01:20:45.766 align:middle line:90% Right. 01:20:45.766 --> 01:20:47.690 align:middle line:90% [INTERPOSING VOICES] 01:20:47.690 --> 01:20:50.430 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: I seen versions where it's not equal. 01:20:50.430 --> 01:20:51.660 align:middle line:90% But yeah, it's-- 01:20:51.660 --> 01:20:52.340 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Separate game. 01:20:52.340 --> 01:20:56.538 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: RXY72? 01:20:56.538 --> 01:20:58.150 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: No. 01:20:58.150 --> 01:21:00.132 align:middle line:90% Defect should be 66. 01:21:00.132 --> 01:21:01.520 align:middle line:90% Defect should be-- 01:21:01.520 --> 01:21:04.202 align:middle line:84% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] were you cooperating, but better than 01:21:04.202 --> 01:21:05.950 align:middle line:90% getting out. 01:21:05.950 --> 01:21:06.530 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:21:06.530 --> 01:21:07.330 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 01:21:07.330 --> 01:21:07.910 align:middle line:90% You're right. 01:21:07.910 --> 01:21:10.280 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:21:10.280 --> 01:21:12.818 align:middle line:84% So this [UNINTELLIGIBLE] is probably too high too, too. 01:21:12.818 --> 01:21:14.270 align:middle line:90% But-- 01:21:14.270 --> 01:21:17.174 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: I mean it [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:21:17.174 --> 01:21:19.836 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: All that matters is that it doesn't matter what 01:21:19.836 --> 01:21:23.960 align:middle line:84% your opponent does that he will [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:21:23.960 --> 01:21:25.230 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Although-- 01:21:25.230 --> 01:21:25.930 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE] looking at. 01:21:25.930 --> 01:21:29.550 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: --they told me that, which is true for a 01:21:29.550 --> 01:21:32.862 align:middle line:90% single instance of this game. 01:21:32.862 --> 01:21:36.306 align:middle line:84% The thing that gets really complex is what happens is you 01:21:36.306 --> 01:21:39.258 align:middle line:84% had to play this multiple times because you're multiple, 01:21:39.258 --> 01:21:43.686 align:middle line:84% repeat offender bank robber who gets caught all the time. 01:21:43.686 --> 01:21:44.945 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Just give up. 01:21:44.945 --> 01:21:47.570 align:middle line:90% 01:21:47.570 --> 01:21:49.990 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: And that's where you get into various 01:21:49.990 --> 01:21:52.070 align:middle line:90% strategies. 01:21:52.070 --> 01:21:55.880 align:middle line:84% The strategy in that particular dilemma is you 01:21:55.880 --> 01:22:00.720 align:middle line:84% should always betray your partner because on average, 01:22:00.720 --> 01:22:02.572 align:middle line:84% you're going to come out ahead. 01:22:02.572 --> 01:22:03.498 align:middle line:90% Is that right? 01:22:03.498 --> 01:22:05.232 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: The strategy is you do whatever the partner did to 01:22:05.232 --> 01:22:06.750 align:middle line:90% you last time. 01:22:06.750 --> 01:22:07.690 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: No. 01:22:07.690 --> 01:22:09.820 align:middle line:84% That's a single game [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:22:09.820 --> 01:22:10.800 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: Oh yeah, single game. 01:22:10.800 --> 01:22:11.780 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:22:11.780 --> 01:22:14.720 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: You always send out [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:22:14.720 --> 01:22:19.495 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: So let me see, if you defect, then what happens 01:22:19.495 --> 01:22:24.380 align:middle line:84% is that you could get away with one or six years. 01:22:24.380 --> 01:22:29.048 align:middle line:84% Six, you don't know what your opponent is going to do. 01:22:29.048 --> 01:22:33.520 align:middle line:84% That's something like three months time. 01:22:33.520 --> 01:22:36.580 align:middle line:84% If you cooperate then it's going to be 01:22:36.580 --> 01:22:38.044 align:middle line:90% between three and seven. 01:22:38.044 --> 01:22:40.972 align:middle line:84% So that's more like expected value of five. 01:22:40.972 --> 01:22:43.800 align:middle line:90% 01:22:43.800 --> 01:22:46.702 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: You're not trying to win this game, you're trying 01:22:46.702 --> 01:22:47.678 align:middle line:90% to [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:22:47.678 --> 01:22:48.654 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:22:48.654 --> 01:22:50.120 align:middle line:90% is actually right. 01:22:50.120 --> 01:22:52.579 align:middle line:84% Say your opponent couldn't cooperate. 01:22:52.579 --> 01:22:54.894 align:middle line:84% Then what if you didn't cooperate? 01:22:54.894 --> 01:22:56.746 align:middle line:84% If you were to cooperate you get three years. 01:22:56.746 --> 01:22:58.670 align:middle line:84% If you defect you get one year. 01:22:58.670 --> 01:23:00.240 align:middle line:90% So you should defect. 01:23:00.240 --> 01:23:01.940 align:middle line:90% What if they were to defect? 01:23:01.940 --> 01:23:05.558 align:middle line:84% Well if you were to cooperate, then you'd get one year. 01:23:05.558 --> 01:23:09.446 align:middle line:84% And if you would cooperate then you'd seven years. 01:23:09.446 --> 01:23:10.418 align:middle line:84% But if you were to defect, you'd only get six years. 01:23:10.418 --> 01:23:11.876 align:middle line:90% So you defect then too. 01:23:11.876 --> 01:23:14.306 align:middle line:84% So you should just go ahead with that. 01:23:14.306 --> 01:23:16.250 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: That's-- 01:23:16.250 --> 01:23:19.155 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:23:19.155 --> 01:23:20.880 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: That's basically [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:23:20.880 --> 01:23:24.470 align:middle line:90% what's the minimum-- 01:23:24.470 --> 01:23:26.770 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:23:26.770 --> 01:23:30.430 align:middle line:84% higher numbers to represent that thing happening to you. 01:23:30.430 --> 01:23:34.995 align:middle line:84% But the whole principle of [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:23:34.995 --> 01:23:39.432 align:middle line:84% we are trying to maximize your minimum benefits, and the 01:23:39.432 --> 01:23:41.650 align:middle line:84% minimum benefit in this particular 01:23:41.650 --> 01:23:47.813 align:middle line:90% case, happens in defect. 01:23:47.813 --> 01:23:50.815 align:middle line:84% Because the most you can possibly get is six years if 01:23:50.815 --> 01:23:52.555 align:middle line:90% you defect. 01:23:52.555 --> 01:23:56.232 align:middle line:84% If you ever cooperate, there's a chance that you're going to 01:23:56.232 --> 01:23:57.525 align:middle line:90% get to the years. 01:23:57.525 --> 01:23:58.775 align:middle line:90% So [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:23:58.775 --> 01:24:01.270 align:middle line:90% 01:24:01.270 --> 01:24:06.200 align:middle line:84% The only problem is, again, once you get into this 01:24:06.200 --> 01:24:09.090 align:middle line:84% repeated over many, many times, then you're in a 01:24:09.090 --> 01:24:13.180 align:middle line:84% situation where if you build up a reputation, that all 01:24:13.180 --> 01:24:18.330 align:middle line:84% you're going to do is defect, then you can almost assume 01:24:18.330 --> 01:24:19.350 align:middle line:90% that your-- 01:24:19.350 --> 01:24:22.730 align:middle line:84% you can pretty much assume that whoever you're playing 01:24:22.730 --> 01:24:25.039 align:middle line:84% against is also going to defect. 01:24:25.039 --> 01:24:27.484 align:middle line:84% At which point you will always [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:24:27.484 --> 01:24:29.440 align:middle line:84% You will never be able to get here. 01:24:29.440 --> 01:24:32.730 align:middle line:90% 01:24:32.730 --> 01:24:38.820 align:middle line:84% There is a concept that helps deal with situations like this 01:24:38.820 --> 01:24:41.000 align:middle line:90% that actually make cooperation, 01:24:41.000 --> 01:24:42.800 align:middle line:90% again, a viable strategy. 01:24:42.800 --> 01:24:45.710 align:middle line:90% 01:24:45.710 --> 01:24:47.080 align:middle line:84% I'm hoping I'm getting this right. 01:24:47.080 --> 01:24:50.280 align:middle line:90% 01:24:50.280 --> 01:24:53.510 align:middle line:84% Well [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in the reading suggested there are 01:24:53.510 --> 01:24:54.398 align:middle line:90% saddle points. 01:24:54.398 --> 01:25:00.180 align:middle line:84% There are saddle points that basically mean this is where 01:25:00.180 --> 01:25:03.920 align:middle line:84% all the strategies pretty much end up because of the 01:25:03.920 --> 01:25:06.720 align:middle line:84% reasoning that we just [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:25:06.720 --> 01:25:11.060 align:middle line:84% You are maximizing the minimum chaos. 01:25:11.060 --> 01:25:14.040 align:middle line:84% The minimum benefit [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:25:14.040 --> 01:25:17.800 align:middle line:90% 01:25:17.800 --> 01:25:20.938 align:middle line:84% And they all [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:25:20.938 --> 01:25:23.890 align:middle line:84% If everyone did the same analysis, 01:25:23.890 --> 01:25:25.860 align:middle line:90% they all end up here. 01:25:25.860 --> 01:25:30.690 align:middle line:84% But John Nash comes along and he suggests that there are 01:25:30.690 --> 01:25:34.760 align:middle line:84% other kinds of saddle points that could be found. 01:25:34.760 --> 01:25:38.960 align:middle line:84% And these are points where, assuming that everybody sticks 01:25:38.960 --> 01:25:42.110 align:middle line:84% with whatever strategies that they've got, if I were to 01:25:42.110 --> 01:25:44.800 align:middle line:84% change my strategy I will end up in a horrid situation. 01:25:44.800 --> 01:25:47.470 align:middle line:90% 01:25:47.470 --> 01:25:48.720 align:middle line:90% So-- 01:25:48.720 --> 01:25:51.392 align:middle line:90% 01:25:51.392 --> 01:25:53.807 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:25:53.807 --> 01:25:54.773 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Defective for that. 01:25:54.773 --> 01:25:57.200 align:middle line:84% Defective [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:25:57.200 --> 01:25:57.983 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:25:57.983 --> 01:25:58.950 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE] 01:25:58.950 --> 01:26:04.880 align:middle line:84% remains one of the saddle points Nash [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:26:04.880 --> 01:26:08.316 align:middle line:84% But the other thing about it is that what actually becomes 01:26:08.316 --> 01:26:10.540 align:middle line:90% an unstable equilibrium. 01:26:10.540 --> 01:26:15.650 align:middle line:84% It's one of those things, especially in a multiple game, 01:26:15.650 --> 01:26:20.965 align:middle line:84% is like if you're going to assume and you're going to be 01:26:20.965 --> 01:26:23.997 align:middle line:84% playing this game over and over and over and over again, 01:26:23.997 --> 01:26:27.925 align:middle line:84% switching out of coop has a long-term detrimental effect. 01:26:27.925 --> 01:26:31.362 align:middle line:84% Because especially-- if you know that other people have a 01:26:31.362 --> 01:26:33.430 align:middle line:84% strategy of basically I'm going to do 01:26:33.430 --> 01:26:34.777 align:middle line:90% what you did to me. 01:26:34.777 --> 01:26:38.190 align:middle line:90% It's called tit for tat. 01:26:38.190 --> 01:26:44.560 align:middle line:84% If you actually stick with coop, and if everybody else is 01:26:44.560 --> 01:26:47.760 align:middle line:84% using the same reasoning as you are, which is another 01:26:47.760 --> 01:26:51.570 align:middle line:84% interesting bit of a wrinkle that Nash throws in. 01:26:51.570 --> 01:26:55.416 align:middle line:84% Whatever analysis you are capable of solving, everybody 01:26:55.416 --> 01:26:57.896 align:middle line:84% else because everybody's a natural player. 01:26:57.896 --> 01:27:02.580 align:middle line:84% Therefore, what actually becomes a unstable, but 01:27:02.580 --> 01:27:04.990 align:middle line:84% possible because [UNINTELLIGIBLE] points. 01:27:04.990 --> 01:27:10.544 align:middle line:84% Because switching out actually leads to the net loss for 01:27:10.544 --> 01:27:12.488 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:27:12.488 --> 01:27:15.900 align:middle line:84% And that was kind of the little thing that he threw in 01:27:15.900 --> 01:27:19.100 align:middle line:84% that kind of made his name and then [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:27:19.100 --> 01:27:23.550 align:middle line:90% 01:27:23.550 --> 01:27:36.010 align:middle line:84% But the basic idea is what is useful from a one table like 01:27:36.010 --> 01:27:39.094 align:middle line:84% this becomes really, really interesting when you think 01:27:39.094 --> 01:27:41.330 align:middle line:84% about what you're going to do in the long-term. 01:27:41.330 --> 01:27:45.190 align:middle line:84% I believe there's a couple of other strategies that involve 01:27:45.190 --> 01:27:49.420 align:middle line:84% things like instead of just doing what I did to you last, 01:27:49.420 --> 01:27:53.896 align:middle line:84% just sort of like well if you defect and I were to defect 01:27:53.896 --> 01:27:56.750 align:middle line:84% the next time, which I think that's a pretty good 01:27:56.750 --> 01:27:56.860 align:middle line:90% perspective. 01:27:56.860 --> 01:27:58.675 align:middle line:84% But they didn't cooperate and I wouldn't 01:27:58.675 --> 01:28:02.080 align:middle line:90% cooperate next time. 01:28:02.080 --> 01:28:04.922 align:middle line:84% There's also strategies like well as soon as you defect, 01:28:04.922 --> 01:28:07.778 align:middle line:84% I'm going to nothing but defect. 01:28:07.778 --> 01:28:14.250 align:middle line:84% And that actually was an interesting group, because 01:28:14.250 --> 01:28:20.400 align:middle line:84% that I think changes the utility numbers in a way where 01:28:20.400 --> 01:28:24.850 align:middle line:84% a single defection has a huge negative [UNINTELLIGIBLE] in a 01:28:24.850 --> 01:28:26.969 align:middle line:84% way that you might want to [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:28:26.969 --> 01:28:30.258 align:middle line:90% 01:28:30.258 --> 01:28:34.704 align:middle line:84% But for the most part, I think tit for tat turned out to be 01:28:34.704 --> 01:28:38.162 align:middle line:84% the best strategy over the long term. 01:28:38.162 --> 01:28:41.126 align:middle line:84% Depending on hos the numbers are weighted, tit for tat 01:28:41.126 --> 01:28:43.430 align:middle line:84% basically says whatever you do, I'm going 01:28:43.430 --> 01:28:45.078 align:middle line:90% to do to you next. 01:28:45.078 --> 01:28:49.524 align:middle line:84% And that actually turns out pretty good because that 01:28:49.524 --> 01:28:51.994 align:middle line:84% actually is not [UNINTELLIGIBLE] coop actually 01:28:51.994 --> 01:28:53.476 align:middle line:90% works [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:28:53.476 --> 01:28:56.480 align:middle line:90% 01:28:56.480 --> 01:28:56.970 align:middle line:90% Yeah. 01:28:56.970 --> 01:28:58.220 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:28:58.220 --> 01:29:04.682 align:middle line:90% 01:29:04.682 --> 01:29:09.120 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: This also only works if there's an unknown number 01:29:09.120 --> 01:29:10.336 align:middle line:90% of future games. 01:29:10.336 --> 01:29:13.294 align:middle line:84% Because if you know you're going to play any finite 01:29:13.294 --> 01:29:14.280 align:middle line:90% number of times-- 01:29:14.280 --> 01:29:14.773 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: True. 01:29:14.773 --> 01:29:15.759 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:29:15.759 --> 01:29:17.731 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:29:17.731 --> 01:29:20.196 align:middle line:84% There is basically it's just like induction. 01:29:20.196 --> 01:29:21.446 align:middle line:90% It goes on forever. 01:29:21.446 --> 01:29:25.140 align:middle line:90% 01:29:25.140 --> 01:29:28.089 align:middle line:84% But you're going to hope that your game's going to get 01:29:28.089 --> 01:29:31.333 align:middle line:84% played infinite number of times. 01:29:31.333 --> 01:29:32.583 align:middle line:90% We are planning for it. 01:29:32.583 --> 01:29:35.325 align:middle line:90% 01:29:35.325 --> 01:29:38.319 align:middle line:84% Not an infinite number of turns. 01:29:38.319 --> 01:29:40.744 align:middle line:84% AUDIENCE: The winner can only resolve after 01:29:40.744 --> 01:29:42.720 align:middle line:90% [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE]. 01:29:42.720 --> 01:29:45.684 align:middle line:84% PROFESSOR: First one who gives up [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. 01:29:45.684 --> 01:29:50.130 align:middle line:90% 01:29:50.130 --> 01:29:52.106 align:middle line:84% I really need to get some water. 01:29:52.106 --> 01:29:55.070 align:middle line:90% 01:29:55.070 --> 01:29:55.564 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Game break. 01:29:55.564 --> 01:29:56.080 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: Yeah. 01:29:56.080 --> 01:29:57.440 align:middle line:84% I'm going to give a quick break. 01:29:57.440 --> 01:29:59.520 align:middle line:84% But does everyone have your [UNINTELLIGIBLE PHRASE] 01:29:59.520 --> 01:30:00.480 align:middle line:90% sheets? 01:30:00.480 --> 01:30:00.960 align:middle line:90% AUDIENCE: Yeah. 01:30:00.960 --> 01:30:01.440 align:middle line:90% PROFESSOR: OK. 01:30:01.440 --> 01:30:06.140 align:middle line:84% I will lecture and pick up on that in about 10 minutes. 01:30:06.140 --> 01:30:06.458 align:middle line:90%