WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.440 align:middle line:90% [SQUEAKING] 00:00:02.440 --> 00:00:04.392 align:middle line:90% [RUSTLING] 00:00:04.392 --> 00:00:07.320 align:middle line:90% [CLICKING] 00:00:07.320 --> 00:00:16.910 align:middle line:90% 00:00:16.910 --> 00:00:21.080 align:middle line:84% ZEYNEB MAGAVI: Our next speaker is Tito-- 00:00:21.080 --> 00:00:22.730 align:middle line:90% sorry, Christoph Reinhart. 00:00:22.730 --> 00:00:25.050 align:middle line:84% And I'm going to, again, let you introduce yourself. 00:00:25.050 --> 00:00:25.700 align:middle line:90% CHRISTOPH REINHART: OK. 00:00:25.700 --> 00:00:26.300 align:middle line:90% I think-- 00:00:26.300 --> 00:00:26.700 align:middle line:90% ZEYNEB MAGAVI: You've got it. 00:00:26.700 --> 00:00:27.350 align:middle line:90% You're all set. 00:00:27.350 --> 00:00:29.058 align:middle line:84% CHRISTOPH REINHART: Thanks a lot, Zeyneb. 00:00:29.058 --> 00:00:30.140 align:middle line:90% Good morning, everybody. 00:00:30.140 --> 00:00:31.920 align:middle line:90% Great pleasure to be here. 00:00:31.920 --> 00:00:35.000 align:middle line:84% Thanks a lot to all of you for taking the time 00:00:35.000 --> 00:00:36.960 align:middle line:84% to learn about this important topic. 00:00:36.960 --> 00:00:39.500 align:middle line:84% And as Zeyneb said, we all have to get involved in this 00:00:39.500 --> 00:00:41.540 align:middle line:90% and become active. 00:00:41.540 --> 00:00:44.280 align:middle line:84% I didn't learn how to use a caulk gun from Zeyneb. 00:00:44.280 --> 00:00:46.158 align:middle line:84% I learned that from my father-in-law, 00:00:46.158 --> 00:00:48.200 align:middle line:84% with whom I've done a lot of building renovations 00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:49.340 align:middle line:90% over the years. 00:00:49.340 --> 00:00:52.550 align:middle line:84% But I'm meeting Zeyneb regularly over the past year 00:00:52.550 --> 00:00:55.140 align:middle line:84% on pi days and other events to eat a lot of pie. 00:00:55.140 --> 00:00:57.865 align:middle line:84% So I think you only know me with a serious sugar rush. 00:00:57.865 --> 00:00:59.450 align:middle line:90% [LAUGHTER] 00:00:59.450 --> 00:01:03.270 align:middle line:84% So let's see where I have my remote control here. 00:01:03.270 --> 00:01:05.129 align:middle line:84% Yeah, I think that fits really well. 00:01:05.129 --> 00:01:07.970 align:middle line:84% Basically, Jay talked about the whole planet 00:01:07.970 --> 00:01:10.260 align:middle line:84% and the effects of various actions on the planet. 00:01:10.260 --> 00:01:12.770 align:middle line:84% And I try to make the jump from the planet 00:01:12.770 --> 00:01:14.690 align:middle line:84% to the individual building and what 00:01:14.690 --> 00:01:17.340 align:middle line:84% this means for an individual building owner. 00:01:17.340 --> 00:01:20.180 align:middle line:84% So I'm really excited about the slides, 00:01:20.180 --> 00:01:21.750 align:middle line:84% since last week a little less so. 00:01:21.750 --> 00:01:25.370 align:middle line:84% But what we put together basically that as of 00:01:25.370 --> 00:01:30.920 align:middle line:84% April of last year, we had a spectacular 148 countries 00:01:30.920 --> 00:01:35.210 align:middle line:84% that represent 90% of the world's population and 90% 00:01:35.210 --> 00:01:37.730 align:middle line:84% of the world's GDP that had jointly 00:01:37.730 --> 00:01:41.120 align:middle line:84% said it's a good idea to decarbonize 00:01:41.120 --> 00:01:42.930 align:middle line:90% our industry, our world. 00:01:42.930 --> 00:01:46.100 align:middle line:84% And if we think about in what kind of incredibly polarized 00:01:46.100 --> 00:01:47.940 align:middle line:90% times we live-- 00:01:47.940 --> 00:01:49.730 align:middle line:84% and I guess last week shows that there 00:01:49.730 --> 00:01:53.220 align:middle line:84% are some bumps in the road towards this joint goal-- 00:01:53.220 --> 00:01:55.880 align:middle line:84% but that there is an incredible buy-in 00:01:55.880 --> 00:02:01.200 align:middle line:84% here towards this idea of having a net zero global economy. 00:02:01.200 --> 00:02:04.080 align:middle line:84% And I would call this goal really, really radical. 00:02:04.080 --> 00:02:06.740 align:middle line:84% And the reason why is because it's 00:02:06.740 --> 00:02:09.690 align:middle line:84% so different from what we have been doing. 00:02:09.690 --> 00:02:11.940 align:middle line:84% And not a lot of people know this. 00:02:11.940 --> 00:02:13.950 align:middle line:84% I only came across that a couple of years ago. 00:02:13.950 --> 00:02:15.780 align:middle line:84% It's really worthwhile looking this up. 00:02:15.780 --> 00:02:20.940 align:middle line:84% This 1952 "Paley Commission Resources for Freedom." 00:02:20.940 --> 00:02:23.150 align:middle line:84% That was a report that I would say 00:02:23.150 --> 00:02:25.520 align:middle line:84% was really the moment that defined 00:02:25.520 --> 00:02:29.690 align:middle line:84% global attitude towards economic growth, fossil fuels, 00:02:29.690 --> 00:02:30.540 align:middle line:90% and so forth. 00:02:30.540 --> 00:02:33.210 align:middle line:84% This was done by a set of experts, 00:02:33.210 --> 00:02:34.740 align:middle line:90% was really widely published. 00:02:34.740 --> 00:02:39.810 align:middle line:84% The Paley Commission was headed by the president of the CBC, 00:02:39.810 --> 00:02:40.350 align:middle line:90% Paley. 00:02:40.350 --> 00:02:43.860 align:middle line:84% And basically, the sentence at the bottom is really key. 00:02:43.860 --> 00:02:46.530 align:middle line:84% It says that "permanent economic growth, 00:02:46.530 --> 00:02:49.980 align:middle line:84% powered by cheap fossil fuels of arbitrary origin, 00:02:49.980 --> 00:02:53.700 align:middle line:84% is the overarching political priority of the 20th century." 00:02:53.700 --> 00:02:57.440 align:middle line:84% And if you think about it, it's hard to think of any policy that 00:02:57.440 --> 00:03:00.920 align:middle line:84% has been implemented with more vigor over such 00:03:00.920 --> 00:03:02.610 align:middle line:90% a long period of time. 00:03:02.610 --> 00:03:05.510 align:middle line:84% And so that in the face of this we want to change here 00:03:05.510 --> 00:03:06.900 align:middle line:90% is really remarkable. 00:03:06.900 --> 00:03:09.780 align:middle line:84% Of course, we really don't want to get rid of our energy use. 00:03:09.780 --> 00:03:11.960 align:middle line:84% We want to get rid of the related carbon that's 00:03:11.960 --> 00:03:13.560 align:middle line:90% related to the energy. 00:03:13.560 --> 00:03:17.340 align:middle line:90% But it's a big change. 00:03:17.340 --> 00:03:19.440 align:middle line:84% What are the drivers between these changes? 00:03:19.440 --> 00:03:22.080 align:middle line:84% Well, in a way we heard about it already. 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:25.620 align:middle line:84% There are lots of disasters happening worldwide. 00:03:25.620 --> 00:03:27.630 align:middle line:84% There's just political momentum building, 00:03:27.630 --> 00:03:30.020 align:middle line:84% and organizations such as HEET obviously provide 00:03:30.020 --> 00:03:32.990 align:middle line:84% solutions towards this global initiative 00:03:32.990 --> 00:03:35.390 align:middle line:84% to say we want to basically change the ways we 00:03:35.390 --> 00:03:36.840 align:middle line:90% deal with our planet. 00:03:36.840 --> 00:03:39.320 align:middle line:84% I would say, a key driver is also 00:03:39.320 --> 00:03:43.740 align:middle line:84% that cities, a lot of cities are located near the sea. 00:03:43.740 --> 00:03:46.040 align:middle line:84% And due to sea level rise, we see 00:03:46.040 --> 00:03:48.230 align:middle line:84% cities becoming so much under pressure 00:03:48.230 --> 00:03:49.560 align:middle line:90% that they're disappearing. 00:03:49.560 --> 00:03:51.680 align:middle line:84% I'm not sure if you followed that Jakarta 00:03:51.680 --> 00:03:55.070 align:middle line:84% is the first mega city who announced that they're 00:03:55.070 --> 00:03:56.220 align:middle line:90% going to move Jakarta. 00:03:56.220 --> 00:03:57.780 align:middle line:84% There won't be any Jakarta anymore. 00:03:57.780 --> 00:03:59.660 align:middle line:84% The reason is sea level rise, overuse 00:03:59.660 --> 00:04:01.380 align:middle line:90% of groundwater in the city. 00:04:01.380 --> 00:04:04.100 align:middle line:84% So there are some dramatic photos out there 00:04:04.100 --> 00:04:07.737 align:middle line:84% that I didn't want to share due to our OpenCourseWare friends. 00:04:07.737 --> 00:04:10.070 align:middle line:84% I'm not even sure if I'm allowed to show this graph here 00:04:10.070 --> 00:04:11.210 align:middle line:90% from The New York Times. 00:04:11.210 --> 00:04:14.700 align:middle line:84% But it's very dramatic what is going on there. 00:04:14.700 --> 00:04:18.015 align:middle line:84% And then finally, of course, we hear 00:04:18.015 --> 00:04:19.640 align:middle line:84% that all the time more and more extreme 00:04:19.640 --> 00:04:21.329 align:middle line:90% weather events are happening. 00:04:21.329 --> 00:04:24.770 align:middle line:84% This graph we put together a couple of months 00:04:24.770 --> 00:04:28.730 align:middle line:84% ago that basically looks at NOAA's recorded extreme weather 00:04:28.730 --> 00:04:29.420 align:middle line:90% events-- 00:04:29.420 --> 00:04:35.550 align:middle line:90% well-- over the last 70 years. 00:04:35.550 --> 00:04:39.420 align:middle line:84% And 90% of these events have happened in the last decade. 00:04:39.420 --> 00:04:42.120 align:middle line:84% So it's really dramatic what is happening. 00:04:42.120 --> 00:04:44.010 align:middle line:90% And I'm told I have to speed up. 00:04:44.010 --> 00:04:45.780 align:middle line:90% So now I try to make this jump. 00:04:45.780 --> 00:04:50.060 align:middle line:84% How do we get basically from our goal of-- 00:04:50.060 --> 00:04:53.932 align:middle line:84% these are of reducing the temperature, 00:04:53.932 --> 00:04:56.390 align:middle line:84% keeping global temperature rise, let's say, under 2 degrees 00:04:56.390 --> 00:04:58.260 align:middle line:90% C, whatever our goal is? 00:04:58.260 --> 00:05:03.560 align:middle line:84% Then we know we have 930 gigatons of CO2 00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:07.580 align:middle line:84% left to make the global building stock-- or the global economy 00:05:07.580 --> 00:05:09.090 align:middle line:90% carbon neutral, really. 00:05:09.090 --> 00:05:12.050 align:middle line:84% If we are releasing more carbon in the atmosphere, 00:05:12.050 --> 00:05:13.130 align:middle line:90% it's going to get warmer. 00:05:13.130 --> 00:05:14.810 align:middle line:90% So if we now say, OK. 00:05:14.810 --> 00:05:17.270 align:middle line:84% The building stock can take 40% of this, 00:05:17.270 --> 00:05:19.390 align:middle line:84% then an easy number to remember is 00:05:19.390 --> 00:05:22.330 align:middle line:84% that we have 340 gigatons and 30 years left 00:05:22.330 --> 00:05:25.120 align:middle line:84% to make the global building stock carbon neutral. 00:05:25.120 --> 00:05:26.750 align:middle line:90% Now, this is our budget. 00:05:26.750 --> 00:05:28.790 align:middle line:84% Where can we spend our budget on? 00:05:28.790 --> 00:05:31.600 align:middle line:84% It's basically the projections are that the global build area 00:05:31.600 --> 00:05:33.800 align:middle line:90% is going to double by 2050. 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:37.550 align:middle line:84% So this is our budget, and this is where we have to spend it on. 00:05:37.550 --> 00:05:39.580 align:middle line:84% This is a simple graph that shows 00:05:39.580 --> 00:05:42.640 align:middle line:84% three predictions of what we could do to the global building 00:05:42.640 --> 00:05:43.250 align:middle line:90% stock. 00:05:43.250 --> 00:05:47.800 align:middle line:84% Business as usual says 1% renovation rate globally. 00:05:47.800 --> 00:05:49.640 align:middle line:90% This is what we currently have. 00:05:49.640 --> 00:05:52.750 align:middle line:84% And by 2050 we will have net zero solutions 00:05:52.750 --> 00:05:55.340 align:middle line:84% for all buildings, new and renovated. 00:05:55.340 --> 00:05:58.370 align:middle line:84% That is going to blow our budget dramatically. 00:05:58.370 --> 00:06:00.370 align:middle line:84% Then the top of the orange line shows 00:06:00.370 --> 00:06:04.120 align:middle line:84% what happens if we have, in 10 years, net zero new buildings 00:06:04.120 --> 00:06:07.300 align:middle line:84% for all new construction, and we increase the retrofitting rate 00:06:07.300 --> 00:06:09.800 align:middle line:90% to 5% per year. 00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:11.720 align:middle line:84% That still doesn't get us fully there. 00:06:11.720 --> 00:06:15.567 align:middle line:84% We also need to have, by this point, embodied net zero. 00:06:15.567 --> 00:06:17.900 align:middle line:84% So all the energy that goes into building the buildings, 00:06:17.900 --> 00:06:20.240 align:middle line:84% we somewhat have to have net zero technologies. 00:06:20.240 --> 00:06:22.850 align:middle line:84% We have zero ideas of how to do that right now. 00:06:22.850 --> 00:06:24.522 align:middle line:84% But if we are putting that together, 00:06:24.522 --> 00:06:26.980 align:middle line:84% really, I would say there's a three-pronged approach of how 00:06:26.980 --> 00:06:29.090 align:middle line:84% we are going to move the building stock around. 00:06:29.090 --> 00:06:32.260 align:middle line:84% One is, again, 5% renovation rate per year. 00:06:32.260 --> 00:06:35.080 align:middle line:84% Within 10 years, we need to have carbon-neutral solutions 00:06:35.080 --> 00:06:37.760 align:middle line:84% for all new construction and for building retrofits. 00:06:37.760 --> 00:06:41.170 align:middle line:84% And really, I would really question this terrible notion 00:06:41.170 --> 00:06:43.120 align:middle line:84% that we have to double the build area. 00:06:43.120 --> 00:06:48.670 align:middle line:84% Like in 5-- in 30 years, we're going to build what we have 00:06:48.670 --> 00:06:51.650 align:middle line:84% built in the last 5,000 years seems a terrible idea. 00:06:51.650 --> 00:06:54.530 align:middle line:84% So more efficient space use is very important as well. 00:06:54.530 --> 00:06:57.010 align:middle line:84% So since I have only two years, I'm 00:06:57.010 --> 00:06:59.990 align:middle line:84% now trying to take it down right to the individual owner. 00:06:59.990 --> 00:07:02.410 align:middle line:84% So if you have a typical building in New England 00:07:02.410 --> 00:07:06.190 align:middle line:84% right now in Massachusetts, the main proposal that you get 00:07:06.190 --> 00:07:10.670 align:middle line:84% is put PV on your rooftop and put in an air source heat pump. 00:07:10.670 --> 00:07:13.640 align:middle line:84% That's really what Massachusetts is pushing. 00:07:13.640 --> 00:07:17.830 align:middle line:84% And so if we look at what that means it's basically if you just 00:07:17.830 --> 00:07:21.830 align:middle line:84% in isolation put in a heat pump that in the best case scenario, 00:07:21.830 --> 00:07:27.670 align:middle line:84% unless you do it yourself, costs you about $25,000. 00:07:27.670 --> 00:07:30.680 align:middle line:84% And that's important if you're using natural gas right now, 00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:32.720 align:middle line:90% increase your operating costs. 00:07:32.720 --> 00:07:36.160 align:middle line:84% So really, from an economic standpoint, the best you can do 00:07:36.160 --> 00:07:40.120 align:middle line:84% is put a heat pump, use an air-source heat pump and a PV 00:07:40.120 --> 00:07:41.360 align:middle line:90% system. 00:07:41.360 --> 00:07:43.010 align:middle line:90% But what that happens-- 00:07:43.010 --> 00:07:45.165 align:middle line:84% if you are doing that, then of course, very 00:07:45.165 --> 00:07:46.540 align:middle line:84% suddenly you have a building that 00:07:46.540 --> 00:07:48.340 align:middle line:84% puts a really strong strain on the grid 00:07:48.340 --> 00:07:52.610 align:middle line:84% because you're creating the electricity in the summer, 00:07:52.610 --> 00:07:56.810 align:middle line:84% but you're having a new peak due to your heat pump in the winter. 00:07:56.810 --> 00:07:59.960 align:middle line:84% And so we don't have any big battery lying around somewhere. 00:07:59.960 --> 00:08:02.620 align:middle line:84% So that is a key problem overall. 00:08:02.620 --> 00:08:06.700 align:middle line:84% And so what we should really do, and I know I'm really there, 00:08:06.700 --> 00:08:08.560 align:middle line:84% is we have to have a detailed-- we have 00:08:08.560 --> 00:08:12.010 align:middle line:84% to offer every homeowner a whole series of different choices 00:08:12.010 --> 00:08:16.040 align:middle line:84% that they can make with LEDs, better appliances, 00:08:16.040 --> 00:08:19.070 align:middle line:84% retrofit their building, PV, putting in a heat pump. 00:08:19.070 --> 00:08:23.080 align:middle line:84% This type of analysis we want to give to every homeowner. 00:08:23.080 --> 00:08:24.820 align:middle line:84% And in order to reach this goal, we're 00:08:24.820 --> 00:08:27.200 align:middle line:84% working with the state of Massachusetts right now. 00:08:27.200 --> 00:08:29.960 align:middle line:84% We build a model, a 2.5 million buildings. 00:08:29.960 --> 00:08:32.780 align:middle line:84% And the way this is going to look like, in a few weeks, 00:08:32.780 --> 00:08:33.980 align:middle line:90% you can go to your building. 00:08:33.980 --> 00:08:37.179 align:middle line:84% You can set what have I done to my building right now? 00:08:37.179 --> 00:08:39.679 align:middle line:84% And then we're going to give you estimates in terms of cost, 00:08:39.679 --> 00:08:41.710 align:middle line:84% carbon savings, and so forth, what you can do. 00:08:41.710 --> 00:08:43.390 align:middle line:84% Right now, in the first instances 00:08:43.390 --> 00:08:46.460 align:middle line:84% we probably have air-source and ground-source heat pumps, 00:08:46.460 --> 00:08:47.360 align:middle line:90% not a network. 00:08:47.360 --> 00:08:49.780 align:middle line:84% But these are things that we can introduce 00:08:49.780 --> 00:08:51.560 align:middle line:90% over time if there's interest. 00:08:51.560 --> 00:08:53.290 align:middle line:90% Thank you. 00:08:53.290 --> 00:08:56.340 align:middle line:90% [APPLAUSE] 00:08:56.340 --> 00:09:18.000 align:middle line:90%