WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.920 align:middle line:90% [SQUEAKING] 00:00:01.920 --> 00:00:04.320 align:middle line:90% [RUSTLING] 00:00:04.320 --> 00:00:07.200 align:middle line:90% [CLICKING] 00:00:07.200 --> 00:00:11.060 align:middle line:90% 00:00:11.060 --> 00:00:13.645 align:middle line:84% SPEAKER: And Juliet, we can't wait to hear about the model. 00:00:13.645 --> 00:00:17.720 align:middle line:90% 00:00:17.720 --> 00:00:20.240 align:middle line:90% JULIET SIMPSON: Maybe? 00:00:20.240 --> 00:00:21.380 align:middle line:90% Oh, OK. 00:00:21.380 --> 00:00:23.323 align:middle line:90% I was a little too fast. 00:00:23.323 --> 00:00:24.240 align:middle line:90% Well, hello, everyone. 00:00:24.240 --> 00:00:25.323 align:middle line:90% My name is Juliet Simpson. 00:00:25.323 --> 00:00:27.380 align:middle line:90% I'm a researcher at NREL. 00:00:27.380 --> 00:00:29.720 align:middle line:84% I'm excited to be talking to you about the modeling work 00:00:29.720 --> 00:00:30.390 align:middle line:90% that we've been doing. 00:00:30.390 --> 00:00:32.140 align:middle line:84% I know I've gotten a lot of great feed-ins 00:00:32.140 --> 00:00:33.980 align:middle line:90% from earlier today. 00:00:33.980 --> 00:00:38.120 align:middle line:84% I will just start by noting that this is geared a little bit more 00:00:38.120 --> 00:00:41.180 align:middle line:84% towards teaching people about generally the modeling that 00:00:41.180 --> 00:00:43.860 align:middle line:84% happens for these systems and a little bit less towards results. 00:00:43.860 --> 00:00:46.235 align:middle line:84% So if you're interested in that, feel free to talk to me. 00:00:46.235 --> 00:00:49.220 align:middle line:84% And also, I'm going to be talking about modeling 00:00:49.220 --> 00:00:52.190 align:middle line:84% for these systems within the context of a model 00:00:52.190 --> 00:00:54.800 align:middle line:84% that we've been building out on the Leg Up Project. 00:00:54.800 --> 00:00:57.410 align:middle line:84% But just know that there are a lot of other models out 00:00:57.410 --> 00:01:01.050 align:middle line:84% there, each tailored to do some slightly different things 00:01:01.050 --> 00:01:02.920 align:middle line:90% and a lot of great options. 00:01:02.920 --> 00:01:07.290 align:middle line:84% And I'm just doing this within one context. 00:01:07.290 --> 00:01:10.560 align:middle line:84% So to get started, I'm talking specifically today 00:01:10.560 --> 00:01:12.820 align:middle line:90% about techno economic modeling. 00:01:12.820 --> 00:01:14.440 align:middle line:84% And that involves two components, 00:01:14.440 --> 00:01:16.260 align:middle line:84% if you're familiar with it, as you 00:01:16.260 --> 00:01:18.270 align:middle line:84% might guess by the name, the technical model 00:01:18.270 --> 00:01:19.795 align:middle line:90% and the economic model. 00:01:19.795 --> 00:01:21.420 align:middle line:84% And this is really important because it 00:01:21.420 --> 00:01:24.120 align:middle line:84% allows us to think about trade-offs between impacts 00:01:24.120 --> 00:01:27.240 align:middle line:84% to technical design, how that impacts operation 00:01:27.240 --> 00:01:29.130 align:middle line:84% and performance of a system, and then 00:01:29.130 --> 00:01:31.363 align:middle line:84% looking at the costs of that, the economic impact. 00:01:31.363 --> 00:01:34.440 align:middle line:90% 00:01:34.440 --> 00:01:37.750 align:middle line:84% Now, why does all of this modeling-- why does it matter? 00:01:37.750 --> 00:01:38.860 align:middle line:90% Why is it important? 00:01:38.860 --> 00:01:41.040 align:middle line:84% This really helps us to answer a lot of questions 00:01:41.040 --> 00:01:43.620 align:middle line:84% without having to go dig holes in the ground. 00:01:43.620 --> 00:01:47.020 align:middle line:84% We can start to think a little more critically ahead of time 00:01:47.020 --> 00:01:49.690 align:middle line:84% before the design and before the build. 00:01:49.690 --> 00:01:51.510 align:middle line:84% We can think about what communities 00:01:51.510 --> 00:01:53.940 align:middle line:84% does a geothermal network make sense in? 00:01:53.940 --> 00:01:56.440 align:middle line:84% Does it make sense to just go for geothermal boreholes, 00:01:56.440 --> 00:01:58.773 align:middle line:84% or should we pull in some of the other thermal resources 00:01:58.773 --> 00:02:00.530 align:middle line:90% that have been mentioned today? 00:02:00.530 --> 00:02:02.630 align:middle line:84% What kind of monthly payment might 00:02:02.630 --> 00:02:04.790 align:middle line:84% be required from customers, or what expected 00:02:04.790 --> 00:02:06.060 align:middle line:90% total cost might there be? 00:02:06.060 --> 00:02:08.600 align:middle line:84% There's lots of questions on that side of the economics 00:02:08.600 --> 00:02:09.530 align:middle line:90% as well. 00:02:09.530 --> 00:02:12.140 align:middle line:84% So having something that can help people 00:02:12.140 --> 00:02:14.850 align:middle line:84% start to think about the finance side as well. 00:02:14.850 --> 00:02:18.170 align:middle line:84% And then after you build, what would happen if you added 00:02:18.170 --> 00:02:19.650 align:middle line:90% one more house to the loop? 00:02:19.650 --> 00:02:21.260 align:middle line:84% Or what would happen if you wanted 00:02:21.260 --> 00:02:23.630 align:middle line:84% to change a little bit the performance set 00:02:23.630 --> 00:02:26.090 align:middle line:84% point for the temperatures or the operation 00:02:26.090 --> 00:02:27.920 align:middle line:90% or the speeds of the loop? 00:02:27.920 --> 00:02:32.670 align:middle line:84% So being able to work with some sort of modeling option, 00:02:32.670 --> 00:02:34.580 align:middle line:84% digital twin, something that lets you 00:02:34.580 --> 00:02:37.790 align:middle line:84% change those parameters before going out and impacting 00:02:37.790 --> 00:02:39.175 align:middle line:84% your customers in the real world. 00:02:39.175 --> 00:02:41.810 align:middle line:90% 00:02:41.810 --> 00:02:43.370 align:middle line:84% A couple of components that I'm then 00:02:43.370 --> 00:02:44.960 align:middle line:84% going to talk through in a minute, 00:02:44.960 --> 00:02:47.480 align:middle line:84% both on the physical system side, a lot 00:02:47.480 --> 00:02:50.100 align:middle line:84% of the major components that we've already mentioned today, 00:02:50.100 --> 00:02:51.690 align:middle line:84% understanding your building loads, 00:02:51.690 --> 00:02:53.840 align:middle line:84% knowing when they're going to need heating 00:02:53.840 --> 00:02:56.310 align:middle line:84% and cooling throughout the year and how much of it, 00:02:56.310 --> 00:02:58.850 align:middle line:84% understanding your opportunities for thermal resources 00:02:58.850 --> 00:03:03.640 align:middle line:84% in an area, capturing the distribution system correctly. 00:03:03.640 --> 00:03:05.340 align:middle line:84% That could include knowing whether you 00:03:05.340 --> 00:03:07.660 align:middle line:84% want to go for a one-pipe system or two pipes. 00:03:07.660 --> 00:03:09.100 align:middle line:90% How big is the pipe going to be? 00:03:09.100 --> 00:03:10.740 align:middle line:84% How much thermal inertia is there 00:03:10.740 --> 00:03:12.750 align:middle line:84% in the water or whatever working fluid 00:03:12.750 --> 00:03:14.820 align:middle line:90% you have moving in that pipe? 00:03:14.820 --> 00:03:17.367 align:middle line:84% How well are your heat pumps going to perform? 00:03:17.367 --> 00:03:19.200 align:middle line:84% What's their coefficient of performance look 00:03:19.200 --> 00:03:22.170 align:middle line:84% like with different entering temperatures? 00:03:22.170 --> 00:03:24.820 align:middle line:84% And then something we've discussed a little less today, 00:03:24.820 --> 00:03:26.400 align:middle line:90% the economic side. 00:03:26.400 --> 00:03:28.750 align:middle line:84% Estimating capital costs, operating costs, 00:03:28.750 --> 00:03:30.700 align:middle line:84% maintenance is all really difficult. 00:03:30.700 --> 00:03:32.740 align:middle line:84% It's something that we certainly struggle with. 00:03:32.740 --> 00:03:34.630 align:middle line:84% But it's really important to these systems. 00:03:34.630 --> 00:03:37.410 align:middle line:84% And then also thinking about the finance plan, what's 00:03:37.410 --> 00:03:39.360 align:middle line:90% your cost recovery look like? 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:40.780 align:middle line:90% Who is paying for it? 00:03:40.780 --> 00:03:42.990 align:middle line:84% It's probably going to have a big impact on that. 00:03:42.990 --> 00:03:44.820 align:middle line:84% But that then has an impact at the end 00:03:44.820 --> 00:03:47.255 align:middle line:84% of the day on what customer payments look like as well. 00:03:47.255 --> 00:03:50.190 align:middle line:90% 00:03:50.190 --> 00:03:52.680 align:middle line:84% Now, we've tried to put both halves of those models 00:03:52.680 --> 00:03:55.450 align:middle line:84% into something we're working on at NREL called heat nets. 00:03:55.450 --> 00:03:58.230 align:middle line:84% This stands for Heat and Economic Analysis Tool 00:03:58.230 --> 00:04:00.210 align:middle line:90% for Networked Thermal Systems. 00:04:00.210 --> 00:04:03.350 align:middle line:84% NREL has been building out this tool in collaboration with HEET 00:04:03.350 --> 00:04:05.370 align:middle line:90% as part of the Leg Up Project. 00:04:05.370 --> 00:04:08.030 align:middle line:84% And so we're really excited to have both halves of it up 00:04:08.030 --> 00:04:09.030 align:middle line:90% and running now. 00:04:09.030 --> 00:04:12.090 align:middle line:84% So we have this code that is written in Python. 00:04:12.090 --> 00:04:14.700 align:middle line:84% It's intended to long-term be open source, 00:04:14.700 --> 00:04:17.269 align:middle line:84% and we're working towards having that being a public GitHub 00:04:17.269 --> 00:04:18.560 align:middle line:90% repository. 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:21.180 align:middle line:84% The first half is the physics-based model. 00:04:21.180 --> 00:04:24.390 align:middle line:84% That's a reduced order model, as Isabel mentioned earlier. 00:04:24.390 --> 00:04:27.360 align:middle line:84% The idea there is that it's a little bit more high level. 00:04:27.360 --> 00:04:29.930 align:middle line:84% It really builds on a lot of other more detailed models 00:04:29.930 --> 00:04:33.410 align:middle line:84% to capture the energy flow around the network and the use 00:04:33.410 --> 00:04:35.510 align:middle line:90% of electricity over time. 00:04:35.510 --> 00:04:37.370 align:middle line:84% The second model is the economic model 00:04:37.370 --> 00:04:40.840 align:middle line:84% used to calculate economic metrics of the system as well. 00:04:40.840 --> 00:04:44.090 align:middle line:90% 00:04:44.090 --> 00:04:46.790 align:middle line:84% So I'm going to give a little bit of high-level information 00:04:46.790 --> 00:04:48.620 align:middle line:84% about both of those models before talking 00:04:48.620 --> 00:04:51.500 align:middle line:84% about what kind of questions we can answer with them. 00:04:51.500 --> 00:04:53.640 align:middle line:84% So first, on the reduced order side, 00:04:53.640 --> 00:04:56.390 align:middle line:84% this is for capturing the physics of what's 00:04:56.390 --> 00:04:57.710 align:middle line:90% actually happening on the loop. 00:04:57.710 --> 00:04:59.490 align:middle line:90% Where is heat moving over time? 00:04:59.490 --> 00:05:01.150 align:middle line:90% Where is water moving? 00:05:01.150 --> 00:05:04.330 align:middle line:84% How much electricity is being used for that whole process? 00:05:04.330 --> 00:05:06.330 align:middle line:84% The major components that we're capturing 00:05:06.330 --> 00:05:08.590 align:middle line:84% are shown here in this simple diagram. 00:05:08.590 --> 00:05:11.250 align:middle line:84% But know that this is showing one building when 00:05:11.250 --> 00:05:12.670 align:middle line:90% you might have 50. 00:05:12.670 --> 00:05:15.960 align:middle line:84% And these are just going to be repeated over time. 00:05:15.960 --> 00:05:19.060 align:middle line:84% The main backbone of this model is the ambient temperature loop. 00:05:19.060 --> 00:05:20.970 align:middle line:84% So a lot of the modeling effort here 00:05:20.970 --> 00:05:22.960 align:middle line:84% goes into the effort of capturing 00:05:22.960 --> 00:05:26.350 align:middle line:84% how does heat move physically around this loop? 00:05:26.350 --> 00:05:28.300 align:middle line:84% How much thermal inertia is in there? 00:05:28.300 --> 00:05:30.120 align:middle line:84% So if you dump in some heat, how quickly 00:05:30.120 --> 00:05:31.590 align:middle line:84% is it going to change temperature? 00:05:31.590 --> 00:05:34.680 align:middle line:84% And how quickly is that going to then propagate around the loop 00:05:34.680 --> 00:05:37.200 align:middle line:90% and affect all of the customers? 00:05:37.200 --> 00:05:39.480 align:middle line:84% Then, plugging in and exchanging heat with that, 00:05:39.480 --> 00:05:41.730 align:middle line:90% we have all of the buildings. 00:05:41.730 --> 00:05:44.290 align:middle line:84% So that requires doing some building modeling, 00:05:44.290 --> 00:05:46.050 align:middle line:84% understanding their loads over time, 00:05:46.050 --> 00:05:47.550 align:middle line:84% understanding how the heat pumps are 00:05:47.550 --> 00:05:50.700 align:middle line:84% going to perform given different entering temperatures 00:05:50.700 --> 00:05:53.610 align:middle line:90% from that main thermal loop. 00:05:53.610 --> 00:05:56.590 align:middle line:84% There's also all of your thermal sources and sinks. 00:05:56.590 --> 00:05:59.510 align:middle line:84% So in this case, we're mostly focused on borehole fields, 00:05:59.510 --> 00:06:01.760 align:middle line:84% but there could be other ones as well. 00:06:01.760 --> 00:06:04.650 align:middle line:84% This modeling is being done, like I mentioned, 00:06:04.650 --> 00:06:05.940 align:middle line:90% at a reduced order level. 00:06:05.940 --> 00:06:07.670 align:middle line:84% So we're relying on collaborators 00:06:07.670 --> 00:06:10.640 align:middle line:84% who are doing some more detailed modeling, including models 00:06:10.640 --> 00:06:13.280 align:middle line:84% that we're getting from Lawrence Berkeley National Labs, 00:06:13.280 --> 00:06:16.940 align:middle line:84% to be able to look at what does our borehole performance look 00:06:16.940 --> 00:06:18.920 align:middle line:90% like over time? 00:06:18.920 --> 00:06:23.690 align:middle line:84% And then, finally, having some of central control station, 00:06:23.690 --> 00:06:25.460 align:middle line:84% being able to model the circulation 00:06:25.460 --> 00:06:27.560 align:middle line:90% pumps to move the fluid around. 00:06:27.560 --> 00:06:29.180 align:middle line:84% In our models right now, we always 00:06:29.180 --> 00:06:32.000 align:middle line:84% account for the option of an auxiliary heating and cooling 00:06:32.000 --> 00:06:32.700 align:middle line:90% system. 00:06:32.700 --> 00:06:36.050 align:middle line:84% And that allows us to really play with our temperature bounds 00:06:36.050 --> 00:06:38.610 align:middle line:84% and how many buildings we have on the loop. 00:06:38.610 --> 00:06:41.060 align:middle line:84% And then having a control decision architecture 00:06:41.060 --> 00:06:43.795 align:middle line:84% that determines how do all of these pieces run together? 00:06:43.795 --> 00:06:47.120 align:middle line:90% 00:06:47.120 --> 00:06:49.220 align:middle line:84% Just as a quick example of some of the outputs 00:06:49.220 --> 00:06:51.380 align:middle line:84% we can get from that, on the left we're showing 00:06:51.380 --> 00:06:54.360 align:middle line:90% one that shows spatial trends. 00:06:54.360 --> 00:06:57.630 align:middle line:84% So as you move around the loop, this is done in a straight line. 00:06:57.630 --> 00:07:00.990 align:middle line:84% We can imagine the end feeds back into the beginning. 00:07:00.990 --> 00:07:03.790 align:middle line:84% This relates back to what Isabel was saying earlier, 00:07:03.790 --> 00:07:05.430 align:middle line:84% that you see changes in temperature 00:07:05.430 --> 00:07:07.240 align:middle line:90% as you move around the loop. 00:07:07.240 --> 00:07:09.785 align:middle line:84% And then you also see things happen over time. 00:07:09.785 --> 00:07:11.160 align:middle line:84% So the one on the right-hand side 00:07:11.160 --> 00:07:13.990 align:middle line:84% is showing every hour throughout a year. 00:07:13.990 --> 00:07:16.210 align:middle line:84% How is heat being exchanged with the loop? 00:07:16.210 --> 00:07:19.050 align:middle line:84% So in this case, we're showing building loads and borehole 00:07:19.050 --> 00:07:21.370 align:middle line:90% loads in blue and green. 00:07:21.370 --> 00:07:22.840 align:middle line:84% And those are generally opposite. 00:07:22.840 --> 00:07:26.010 align:middle line:84% So in the winter time buildings take heat out of the loop, 00:07:26.010 --> 00:07:28.150 align:middle line:84% and the borehole field puts heat in. 00:07:28.150 --> 00:07:30.810 align:middle line:84% We see the opposite trend in the summertime. 00:07:30.810 --> 00:07:33.390 align:middle line:84% And then some additional auxiliary heat 00:07:33.390 --> 00:07:36.030 align:middle line:84% in this model, and so you could see maybe 00:07:36.030 --> 00:07:40.600 align:middle line:84% where those areas that you might need some additional heat. 00:07:40.600 --> 00:07:42.370 align:middle line:84% And you can consider trade-offs for. 00:07:42.370 --> 00:07:45.720 align:middle line:84% Is it worthwhile to have some of electric boiler provide that 00:07:45.720 --> 00:07:48.010 align:middle line:84% or to drill more boreholes/ And again, 00:07:48.010 --> 00:07:51.840 align:middle line:84% this comes down to a lot of trade-offs. 00:07:51.840 --> 00:07:55.410 align:middle line:84% The other half of this model is economic. 00:07:55.410 --> 00:07:58.080 align:middle line:84% I will warn you that this is the side that I spend a little bit 00:07:58.080 --> 00:08:02.450 align:middle line:84% less time on at work, but this takes in a lot of inputs 00:08:02.450 --> 00:08:04.833 align:middle line:90% from the physics-based model. 00:08:04.833 --> 00:08:06.500 align:middle line:84% So the physics-based model will tell you 00:08:06.500 --> 00:08:09.420 align:middle line:84% how much electricity are all the components using over time? 00:08:09.420 --> 00:08:12.295 align:middle line:84% Also, what were the design specs you chose for the system/ 00:08:12.295 --> 00:08:14.670 align:middle line:84% And then you have to give it some additional information. 00:08:14.670 --> 00:08:17.240 align:middle line:84% So what financial assumptions are you putting in? 00:08:17.240 --> 00:08:20.090 align:middle line:84% How much of this project, how much 00:08:20.090 --> 00:08:23.210 align:middle line:84% is financed with debt, how much is upfront? 00:08:23.210 --> 00:08:25.820 align:middle line:84% What kind of assumptions are you making on incentives 00:08:25.820 --> 00:08:27.290 align:middle line:90% you might received? 00:08:27.290 --> 00:08:29.990 align:middle line:84% That all comes together into a variety of outputs 00:08:29.990 --> 00:08:31.490 align:middle line:90% that we can look at. 00:08:31.490 --> 00:08:33.860 align:middle line:84% One that we're particularly excited about right 00:08:33.860 --> 00:08:37.549 align:middle line:84% now is something we're calling LCOx. 00:08:37.549 --> 00:08:40.460 align:middle line:84% This builds off of the standard levelized cost 00:08:40.460 --> 00:08:41.820 align:middle line:90% of energy equation. 00:08:41.820 --> 00:08:44.360 align:middle line:84% But here we're allowing for pulling in multiple energy 00:08:44.360 --> 00:08:45.440 align:middle line:90% flows. 00:08:45.440 --> 00:08:48.050 align:middle line:90% So it's no longer just energy. 00:08:48.050 --> 00:08:50.960 align:middle line:84% Our costs are including both capital costs 00:08:50.960 --> 00:08:54.390 align:middle line:84% and the cost of the electricity to operate the system. 00:08:54.390 --> 00:08:57.470 align:middle line:84% And then our thing that we're producing in this case 00:08:57.470 --> 00:08:59.470 align:middle line:84% is heating and cooling to buildings. 00:08:59.470 --> 00:09:02.520 align:middle line:84% Right now we're looking at that as just the absolute values 00:09:02.520 --> 00:09:07.560 align:middle line:84% of them, how much total help are you putting into these buildings 00:09:07.560 --> 00:09:09.300 align:middle line:90% to maintain their climate? 00:09:09.300 --> 00:09:14.370 align:middle line:84% So heat and cool are equally valued at the moment. 00:09:14.370 --> 00:09:16.980 align:middle line:84% And we can then get more granular with those outputs 00:09:16.980 --> 00:09:17.560 align:middle line:90% as well. 00:09:17.560 --> 00:09:20.760 align:middle line:84% So just an example of something that you could look at, 00:09:20.760 --> 00:09:26.320 align:middle line:84% this is just using, not random numbers, but example numbers 00:09:26.320 --> 00:09:27.840 align:middle line:90% for some example building. 00:09:27.840 --> 00:09:30.870 align:middle line:84% You could start to look at how much energy consumption do 00:09:30.870 --> 00:09:32.410 align:middle line:90% you expect throughout a year. 00:09:32.410 --> 00:09:35.160 align:middle line:84% How does that then trickle down into what 00:09:35.160 --> 00:09:38.970 align:middle line:84% might that user, depending on what cost recovery is being 00:09:38.970 --> 00:09:41.370 align:middle line:84% used, what might their monthly bill payment 00:09:41.370 --> 00:09:42.940 align:middle line:90% look like, things like that. 00:09:42.940 --> 00:09:46.020 align:middle line:84% So now we can start to go all the way from design decisions 00:09:46.020 --> 00:09:50.090 align:middle line:84% down to monthly bills for individual homes. 00:09:50.090 --> 00:09:53.910 align:middle line:90% 00:09:53.910 --> 00:09:57.750 align:middle line:84% So just to wrap up that this idea showing 00:09:57.750 --> 00:10:00.680 align:middle line:84% how the data flows altogether, we have first this reduced order 00:10:00.680 --> 00:10:01.290 align:middle line:90% model. 00:10:01.290 --> 00:10:02.670 align:middle line:90% This is physics-based. 00:10:02.670 --> 00:10:04.920 align:middle line:84% We have a lot of different inputs that come into this. 00:10:04.920 --> 00:10:08.180 align:middle line:84% It really relies on high-level modeling done elsewhere 00:10:08.180 --> 00:10:10.850 align:middle line:90% that all can come together. 00:10:10.850 --> 00:10:13.460 align:middle line:84% A major output from that is the time series electricity 00:10:13.460 --> 00:10:15.177 align:middle line:90% consumption. 00:10:15.177 --> 00:10:16.760 align:middle line:84% There are some other inputs that we're 00:10:16.760 --> 00:10:18.552 align:middle line:84% going to need to get to the economic model. 00:10:18.552 --> 00:10:20.970 align:middle line:84% So we start to have to think about component costs, 00:10:20.970 --> 00:10:24.330 align:middle line:84% estimating those, knowing what our financial assumptions are, 00:10:24.330 --> 00:10:27.410 align:middle line:84% and then eventually feeding that all into an economic model 00:10:27.410 --> 00:10:30.560 align:middle line:84% where we can get outputs like that LCOx value I was 00:10:30.560 --> 00:10:34.880 align:middle line:84% mentioning, also net present value, internal rate of return, 00:10:34.880 --> 00:10:39.110 align:middle line:84% and something we're calling thermal energy price. 00:10:39.110 --> 00:10:41.640 align:middle line:84% And then you get to answer the fun questions. 00:10:41.640 --> 00:10:43.320 align:middle line:84% So this is what we're really here for. 00:10:43.320 --> 00:10:44.695 align:middle line:84% We build out all of this modeling 00:10:44.695 --> 00:10:47.160 align:middle line:84% so that we can start to answer interesting questions. 00:10:47.160 --> 00:10:49.710 align:middle line:84% So I have two quick examples here to wrap up. 00:10:49.710 --> 00:10:54.500 align:middle line:84% The first is what if you changed the minimum loop temperature/ 00:10:54.500 --> 00:10:57.440 align:middle line:84% So in this case, we're assuming with the way our control system 00:10:57.440 --> 00:11:02.530 align:middle line:84% that we've built is set up, you have to decide when do the pumps 00:11:02.530 --> 00:11:03.200 align:middle line:90% ramp up? 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:04.790 align:middle line:90% When does the borehole get used? 00:11:04.790 --> 00:11:06.700 align:middle line:84% When does auxiliary heat turn on in order 00:11:06.700 --> 00:11:08.870 align:middle line:84% to maintain some minimum temperature? 00:11:08.870 --> 00:11:10.990 align:middle line:84% In this case study that we did, we 00:11:10.990 --> 00:11:14.330 align:middle line:84% found that as you increase that minimum loop temperature, 00:11:14.330 --> 00:11:16.730 align:middle line:84% the cost to the utility goes up greatly. 00:11:16.730 --> 00:11:17.438 align:middle line:90% This makes sense. 00:11:17.438 --> 00:11:19.730 align:middle line:84% They're having to work really hard to maintain a higher 00:11:19.730 --> 00:11:20.300 align:middle line:90% temperature. 00:11:20.300 --> 00:11:23.170 align:middle line:84% But the cost to the consumer goes down slightly 00:11:23.170 --> 00:11:26.120 align:middle line:84% because their heat pump is working more efficiently now. 00:11:26.120 --> 00:11:29.390 align:middle line:84% So you see this trade-off here, well in this case, 00:11:29.390 --> 00:11:31.450 align:middle line:84% we're talking about annual electricity costs, 00:11:31.450 --> 00:11:33.890 align:middle line:84% not considering capital cost that goes into that. 00:11:33.890 --> 00:11:36.700 align:middle line:84% But we have to think about how benefits 00:11:36.700 --> 00:11:38.800 align:middle line:84% are shared to all parties involved 00:11:38.800 --> 00:11:40.930 align:middle line:90% in a geothermal network. 00:11:40.930 --> 00:11:43.060 align:middle line:84% And as one final example, you can also 00:11:43.060 --> 00:11:46.150 align:middle line:84% think about what happens as you change the number and location 00:11:46.150 --> 00:11:48.080 align:middle line:90% of boreholes around the loop. 00:11:48.080 --> 00:11:49.810 align:middle line:84% And here, we see that if you just 00:11:49.810 --> 00:11:51.800 align:middle line:84% think about electricity system costs, 00:11:51.800 --> 00:11:54.700 align:middle line:84% electricity usage, more boreholes 00:11:54.700 --> 00:11:57.530 align:middle line:84% means less energy is used in this case 00:11:57.530 --> 00:12:02.348 align:middle line:84% because we're not needing any of auxiliary electric boiler. 00:12:02.348 --> 00:12:03.890 align:middle line:84% But you have to consider that weighed 00:12:03.890 --> 00:12:05.670 align:middle line:90% against economic impacts. 00:12:05.670 --> 00:12:07.020 align:middle line:90% So how much did they cost? 00:12:07.020 --> 00:12:12.050 align:middle line:84% Was that cost worth it/ What's your trade-off look like there/ 00:12:12.050 --> 00:12:15.420 align:middle line:84% So thank you all for listening to me talk about modeling. 00:12:15.420 --> 00:12:17.000 align:middle line:84% I think that modeling can really help 00:12:17.000 --> 00:12:18.920 align:middle line:84% us to answer a lot of key questions 00:12:18.920 --> 00:12:22.610 align:middle line:84% as we move forward with building out geothermal networks. 00:12:22.610 --> 00:12:24.860 align:middle line:84% One model that we're excited about for it 00:12:24.860 --> 00:12:28.260 align:middle line:84% is heat nets, which I've talked through some examples of today. 00:12:28.260 --> 00:12:30.740 align:middle line:84% But again, a lot of great modeling going on in the space 00:12:30.740 --> 00:12:31.757 align:middle line:90% that we're excited for. 00:12:31.757 --> 00:12:33.590 align:middle line:84% But we're looking forward to the opportunity 00:12:33.590 --> 00:12:36.470 align:middle line:84% to think about the analysis of how 00:12:36.470 --> 00:12:38.210 align:middle line:84% these design and operational decisions 00:12:38.210 --> 00:12:42.140 align:middle line:84% impact both performance and economics of these systems. 00:12:42.140 --> 00:12:43.190 align:middle line:90% So thank you. 00:12:43.190 --> 00:12:46.150 align:middle line:90% [APPLAUSE] 00:12:46.150 --> 00:12:58.000 align:middle line:90%