WEBVTT

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[SQUEAKING]

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[RUSTLING]

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[CLICKING]

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SPEAKER: Very, very happy.

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Actually transitions beautifully
to Don Lessard's conversation

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on business models for deploying
and how to get that upfront cost

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spread out.

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And, Don, as I've
done all day, you

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are much better off introducing
yourself and all of your history

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than I.

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DON LESSARD: I'll be
brief on my history.

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I'm Don Lessard.

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I'm an extinguished
professor at MIT.

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51 years in the Sloan School.

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My claim to fame,
I guess here, I

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was one of the two
faculty leaders

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on the energy minor that
we built across all five

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schools, which was really,
really one of the most fun

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experiences at MIT.

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I also, once upon a
time, I taught finance,

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and I came to realize
this is largely

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about financial
engineering-- not largely,

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but financial engineering is
overwhelmingly important here.

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OK, I'm going to take
just a little tiny slice

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of Nikki's presentation,
which is fantastic.

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Determining appropriate
pricing that

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balances utility investments
with customer usage.

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So to me, that's
the business model.

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All this other
stuff is everything

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you need to do to get there.

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It's terribly-- even that
piece is complicated enough,

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so let's just focus on that one.

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Problem-- high capital cost,
but your all-in monthly costs

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has to come out about the same
as the current all-in monthly

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cost of gas plus electricity.

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Otherwise, it's
dead in the water.

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If you run current costs of
geothermal like even your second

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stage of your pilot through
current utility models,

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it costs 2x at least.

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So it's 2 to 3
times as expensive

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as it needs to be to
meet the cost, right?

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Now, how do we get there?

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Well, this is my
whole presentation.

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I have 17 more slides, but
this is the whole presentation.

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Let's see.

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So high capital costs,
that's our issue.

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We are replacing iceboxes
with refrigerators.

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We don't have to buy
the ice every day,

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but the refrigerator
costs a lot.

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And when I hear
discussions of pricing,

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it seems to me
we're still trying

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to price it as if we're pricing
ice, whereas, in fact, we're

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renting a refrigerator.

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So if you think of it as
renting a refrigerator,

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that's the analogy we want, as
opposed to we're buying ice.

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So one third boreholes, one
third system, one third customer

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and system and conversion.

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I thought I'd corrected that.

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How do we solve the problem?

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Because this is now 2x.

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We need to get monthly
costs to the homeowner

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near current electrical
and gas bill.

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That's what we have to do.

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2x, how do we get there?

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Well, we've got to
reduce the capital costs.

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So you've got to
work like crazy.

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The unions have to
work like crazy.

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We have to get down
the learning curve.

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We really have to
do this, right?

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The capital cost must come down.

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We have to allocate--
at the moment,

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we're overbuilding
these systems.

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Loop one, 425 tons against
275 tons actually used.

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You overbuild the
system-- or whatever

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the number are-- overbuild the
system by a massive amount.

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Somehow or another, the excess
capacity has to get banked,

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and the customers only
have to get charged

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for the actual used capacity.

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Third, this is a lot
of the discussion.

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How do we monetize some
of these other benefits?

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How do we get a heat-pump tax?

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How do we get an
investment tax credit?

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How do we get some payment for
the avoided utility investments?

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Those are huge.

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Monetize other
benefits and apply.

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And then the
financial-engineering part

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is, how do we
spread the recovery

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of the capital over 30
years in constant terms,

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inflation-adjusted
terms, real terms?

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If we run it through the
current utility model,

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it looks like this
in real terms.

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It's big in the first year.

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It gets smaller over time.

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It's twice as high as it ought
to be because we're not even

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using a nominal-level
payment mortgage.

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We're using rate of return
plus depreciation, right?

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Well, 30 years ago, we invented
a level payment novel mortgage.

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How do we spread
the cost of capital

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equally in real terms over time?

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If we could do all of those
things, we'd be there.

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So you do your job in
getting the cost down.

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Really build it neat.

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We find a way to bring in some
of the other grants and tax

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incentives.

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We grab back some
of the avoided costs

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out of the electrical system.

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Ideally, we'd get some carbon
credits for the carbon saved,

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and then we'd spread
the capital cost evenly.

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And then people
say, gee, this is

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more economical than
the existing system,

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and it's better for our kids.

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It's better for our community.

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We avoid the heat islands.

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We avoid all the other stuff.

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So we get all these other
bennies for free, in a sense.

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Learning curve-- so
learning curve, right?

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There are learning
curves out there.

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There's evidence out there.

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It looks like you've
got 50% from one to two,

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but, probably, this is
going to be an 11% or 12%

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learning curve over time.

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There's a lot of
evidence on this.

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So to the rate-based
folk, we'd say

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you've got to be willing
to eat some of it

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because you're investing
against the learning curve,

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and there's an investment
in the learning curve.

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And so you can't load
all of the current costs

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onto the current customers
because part of the current cost

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is a public benefit
of the learning curve

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that everyone else will gain.

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And so this has to be
built into the thinking.

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Excess capacity-- well, let's
allocate only the capacity

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used, right?

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And the excess
capacity is banked.

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Mechanisms to monetize benefit--

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so assignment of carbon
tax or renewable energy,

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linkage of various
incentive systems,

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assignment of
avoided cost credits.

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I mean complicated, really
complicated and hard to do,

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but we've got to get our
act together and make this

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all in one place.

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Capital recovery model-- and I
don't expect everybody to follow

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this at 3:30 in the afternoon.

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But if you take cost
of capital times

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unamortized capital
plus depreciation

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and you look at your annual
charge, it starts on a 50--

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it starts high, and it
comes down over time.

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If you have a level nominal
charge, it's like that.

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A level real charge would be
rising over time with inflation.

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Short story.

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If you had a payment
that looked like an index

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Treasury and you
could tell people

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that looks like Social Security
because Social Security

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is indexed to inflation--

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if you have a payment that's
indexed to Social Security,

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it can start at 1/2 the level
of a fixed nominal payment,

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and it will grow at
Social Security over time,

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and it will give the utility
the rate of return that

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they're allowed full
recovery of capital.

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Yeah, it's fairly
straightforward.

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You just have to do it.

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So constant real
capital recovery,

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there are ways to do this.

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I wrote it up in 1975 for
totally different reasons.

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It's all in there.

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OK, now, alternative
pricing models.

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We could consumer
purchase in-home

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and the utility supplies the
common stuff or the utility

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supplies everything.

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Those would be the two choices.

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And you could chart
for thermal usage,

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or you could charge
for capacity.

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I personally like
charging for capacity.

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I'm being told five minutes.

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I think thermal usage is
a little bit like charging

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for ice in the ice box.

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I'd like capacities.

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These are fixed-cost systems.

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You're largely talking about
recovering capital costs.

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But one, two, three, or four.

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But now let's get simple.

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Path forward, stage
one, pilot stage.

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Stage two, rollout stage.

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Stage three, steady state.

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In pilot stage, there are
only very few systems.

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They're incomplete.

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There's no market.

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There's no thermal market.

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And the vintage for the
technical types, the vintage

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of capital is too young.

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It's all new.

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And so if you have
standard rate recovery,

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you're going to be recovering
way too high rates.

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What would I do if I
were in Jamie's position?

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I'd say in the short
run, we fix the cost

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equal to the current charge
per unit of capacity, period.

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And we charge the
customer with that amount,

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and the difference--

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80% of the difference
we stick on rate base.

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20% of the difference
we give to Nikki

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so she has an incentive to
bring the difference down.

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We say, basically, we're going
to price it off current gas plus

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electricity, and we're going
to stick the rest of it--

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the rate base for learning
curve, for learning,

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for all of these
other benefits--

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in the first-- and you
might, to protect yourself,

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you might say for up to 3% of
the installed base or up to 5%

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of the installed base.

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This is a learning investment.

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It just matches the old one.

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Rollout stage,
you're still going

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to have relatively
few systems, but you

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can do a cost-of-capital
recovery on those systems,

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as long as it's level and
real, as opposed to nominal

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and declining.

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Steady state, it doesn't
matter because you're

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going to have investments
of all vintages,

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and it's going to look
like the existing system.

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And you could go back
to the existing system

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if you wanted to,
but by then, you

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would have devised a new system.

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And remember, this
is the problem

00:09:42.600 --> 00:09:44.410 align:middle line:90%
for utilities in general.

00:09:44.410 --> 00:09:47.080 align:middle line:84%
We're going from operating
costs to capital costs.

00:09:47.080 --> 00:09:48.813 align:middle line:90%
Renewables are capital costs.

00:09:48.813 --> 00:09:50.230 align:middle line:84%
We're getting rid
of fossil fuels,

00:09:50.230 --> 00:09:51.850 align:middle line:90%
which are operating costs.

00:09:51.850 --> 00:09:57.240 align:middle line:84%
So this helps us actually move
from a volumetric to a capacity

00:09:57.240 --> 00:09:58.240 align:middle line:90%
charging system.

00:09:58.240 --> 00:10:00.840 align:middle line:90%
OK, I've got two more minutes.

00:10:00.840 --> 00:10:03.310 align:middle line:84%
Consideration for low-income,
low-wealth households,

00:10:03.310 --> 00:10:04.780 align:middle line:84%
I think this would
be a great area.

00:10:04.780 --> 00:10:08.350 align:middle line:84%
Take the one third that is the
retrofit in the internal system.

00:10:08.350 --> 00:10:10.450 align:middle line:84%
Get the Boston Foundation
to work with you.

00:10:10.450 --> 00:10:12.870 align:middle line:84%
Get them to buy down the
cost of the household

00:10:12.870 --> 00:10:15.480 align:middle line:90%
part for low-income households.

00:10:15.480 --> 00:10:17.700 align:middle line:90%
Don't throw it at the utility.

00:10:17.700 --> 00:10:20.440 align:middle line:84%
Say 2/3 of it is
a standard rate,

00:10:20.440 --> 00:10:24.150 align:middle line:84%
and if you qualify low income,
we'll buy down the other third.

00:10:24.150 --> 00:10:26.420 align:middle line:84%
And that will help us
get all of the 20 houses

00:10:26.420 --> 00:10:29.360 align:middle line:84%
around the cul-de-sac
to convert.

00:10:29.360 --> 00:10:30.510 align:middle line:90%
Then there are appendices.

00:10:30.510 --> 00:10:32.498 align:middle line:90%
So that's it.

00:10:32.498 --> 00:10:35.781 align:middle line:90%
[APPLAUSE]

00:10:35.781 --> 00:10:36.719 align:middle line:90%


00:10:36.719 --> 00:10:39.900 align:middle line:90%
SPEAKER: So thank you, Don.

00:10:39.900 --> 00:10:42.010 align:middle line:84%
So Don is a neighbor,
and I went for a walk.

00:10:42.010 --> 00:10:42.510 align:middle line:90%
And I said,

00:10:42.510 --> 00:10:42.620 align:middle line:90%
DON LESSARD: We are neighbors.

00:10:42.620 --> 00:10:44.745 align:middle line:84%
SPEAKER: --well, here's
where we are with the cost.

00:10:44.745 --> 00:10:48.675 align:middle line:84%
Can you figure out
some solutions?

00:10:48.675 --> 00:10:53.660 align:middle line:84%
And if you didn't catch that
in the deluge of information

00:10:53.660 --> 00:10:56.930 align:middle line:84%
and ideas, he's putting
out a whole bunch

00:10:56.930 --> 00:10:59.030 align:middle line:84%
of series of solutions
to deal with the cost

00:10:59.030 --> 00:11:01.890 align:middle line:84%
as it is today with
the first projects.

00:11:01.890 --> 00:11:04.610 align:middle line:84%
And one of the things
I want to flag on that

00:11:04.610 --> 00:11:07.700 align:middle line:84%
is that that cost today
with these first projects

00:11:07.700 --> 00:11:12.300 align:middle line:84%
includes the entire cost of
the building transition, which,

00:11:12.300 --> 00:11:18.780 align:middle line:84%
incidentally, also includes all
of the challenges of our aging--

00:11:18.780 --> 00:11:20.820 align:middle line:84%
I think someone said
crappy buildings.

00:11:20.820 --> 00:11:22.980 align:middle line:84%
Yeah, we have crappy
buildings here.

00:11:22.980 --> 00:11:24.010 align:middle line:90%
Just saying it.

00:11:24.010 --> 00:11:28.260 align:middle line:84%
And all of those problems
that are from a hundred years

00:11:28.260 --> 00:11:29.140 align:middle line:90%
of neglect--

00:11:29.140 --> 00:11:31.330 align:middle line:84%
the asbestos, the mold,
the faulty wiring,

00:11:31.330 --> 00:11:33.990 align:middle line:84%
the code violations--
they are a part

00:11:33.990 --> 00:11:36.673 align:middle line:84%
of the challenge of
decarbonizing our buildings

00:11:36.673 --> 00:11:39.340 align:middle line:84%
because you cross the threshold,
and you have to deal with them.

00:11:39.340 --> 00:11:45.030 align:middle line:84%
And so that cost is baked
into that total sum.

00:11:45.030 --> 00:11:49.540 align:middle line:84%
Part of what Nikki was referring
to is going into new builds,

00:11:49.540 --> 00:11:51.250 align:middle line:90%
you don't deal with that at all.

00:11:51.250 --> 00:11:56.610 align:middle line:84%
And even today, those
pipes and boreholes

00:11:56.610 --> 00:12:02.130 align:middle line:84%
can actually balance out for the
energy supply in a kind of more

00:12:02.130 --> 00:12:04.360 align:middle line:90%
classic gas utility approach.

00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:07.560 align:middle line:84%
So the incredible
news is that we

00:12:07.560 --> 00:12:12.030 align:middle line:84%
might have tools to remove the
cost of all of our building

00:12:12.030 --> 00:12:14.490 align:middle line:84%
upgrades, which has all these
other incredible benefits

00:12:14.490 --> 00:12:17.370 align:middle line:84%
like health and
well-being and comfort.

00:12:17.370 --> 00:12:21.500 align:middle line:84%
So I just wanted to
clarify that distinction.

00:12:21.500 --> 00:12:27.000 align:middle line:90%