15.060 | Fall 2014 | Graduate

# Data, Models, and Decisions

[DMD] = Bertsimas, Dimitris, and Robert Freund. Data, Models, and Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science. Dynamic Ideas, 2004. ISBN: 9780975914601.

1 Decision Analysis I - Kendall Crab & Lobster Case

Prepare the Kendall Crab and Lobster case (at the end of Chapter 1 in [DMD]), and be ready to discuss the following questions in class: What are the choices that Jeff Daniels faces? What are the sources of uncertainty in the case? What are the consequences of the various possible outcomes? What course of action would you recommend for Jeff Daniels?

2 Decision Analysis II - Conditional Probabilities

Read [DMD] Chapter 2, Sections 2.1–2.3.

Read and prepare the case “Great Apps of Ann Arbor.” We will discuss this case, plus conditional probabilities and Bayes’ Rule, in class.

3 Discrete Probability Distributions Read [DMD] Chapter 2, Sections 2.4–2.11 and 2.13.
4 Continuous Probability Distributions Read [DMD] Chapter 3, Sections 2.8–2.11 and 3.1–3.3.
5 The Normal Distribution Read [DMD] Chapter 3, Sections 3.4–3.8.
6 Simulation I - The Gentle Lentil Case

Read [DMD] Chapter 4, Sections 4.1–4.2 and all of Chapter 5.

Read the Gentle Lentil Restaurant case (at the end of Chapter 5 in [DMD]) and prepare answers to the questions at the end of the case. (Note: you are Not required to build a simulation model.) Decide how you would go about analyzing the salary implications of the two career decisions that Sanjay Thomas faces.

7 Regression Models I Read [DMD] Chapter 6, Sections 6.1–6.7.
8 Simulation II - The Ontario Gateway Case Read the Ontario Gateway case (at the end of Chapter 5 in [DMD]). Perform the case analysis modeling assignment for the Ontario Gateway Case described at the end of the case. Hand In a management memorandum presenting your conclusions with appropriate but concise back-up enclosures to support your recommendations.
9 Regression Models II Read [DMD] Chapter 4, Sections 4.4–4.5 and Chapter 6, Sections 6.8–6.10.
10 Regression Illustrated Read the two regression cases entitled “Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at Oilplus” and “Executive Compensation” (at the end of Chapter 6 in [DMD]). Perform the analyses outlined at the end of each case and come to class prepared to discuss these two regression cases.
11 Quiz
12 Introduction to Linear Optimization Modeling Read [DMD] Chapter 7, Sections 7.1–7.3.
13 Solving and Analyzing Linear Optimization Models Read [DMD] Chapter 7, Sections 7.4–7.6.
14 Filatoi Riuniti Case: Production Management Read and analyze the Filatoi Riuniti case at the end of Chapter 7 in [DMD]. Be prepared to discuss this case in class.
15 Introduction to Nonlinear Optimization No readings.
16 Introduction to Discrete Optimization Read [DMD] Chapter 9, Sections 9.1–9.4.
17 International Industries Case: Strategic Investment Management Read (but do not hand in) the case “International Industries, Inc.” at the end of Chapter 9 in [DMD]. We will discuss the case in class.
18 Integrative Case on the Financial Crisis Read the case “Money Tree Mortgage in Distress: Evaluating Alternative Funding Options” and be prepared to discuss the case in class.
19 Dynamic Optimization for Retail Pricing Read the case “Pricing Strategies for Power-Pro’s MBA Laptop Bag.” We will discuss this case and an optimization model for determining optimal pricing in class.
21 Final Exam Review No readings.

## Course Info

Fall 2014
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