Relations between China and the United States have been increasingly tense in past years. US foreign policy is currently centered on great power competition with China, and the potential for war is a focus of its military planning. Long-standing issues include the status of Taiwan and, more recently, Chinese territorial claims to islands in the South China Sea. Additionally, the United States and China are engaged in an ongoing economic dispute with mutually escalatory tariffs and other barriers aimed to reduce trade flows.
Over a week between January 28 and February 4, 2023, what is reported to be a Chinese spy balloon entered US airspace twice. The second time, the balloon entered over Idaho and traversed most of the continental US before the US military shot the craft down off the coast of North Carolina.1 The Biden administration faced criticism over its initial delay in downing the balloon, and eventually cancelled a high-level diplomatic visit to China in response. Since then, the US military has reportedly shot down several more unidentified craft, signaling that tensions are running high. The Chinese government maintains that the device was a weather balloon for civilian research that was not intended for spying at all, though a substantial amount of evidence seems to contradict these claims.
Advise the President of the United States on what the next steps should be with respect to China, speaking for what would be best for what you believe to be the national interests of the United States, rather than necessarily limiting yourself to what seems most feasible in the current partisan landscape of the US. You may consider all options to be on the table. Support your arguments with concepts, theories, and/or approaches discussed in class and the readings.
This policy memo is due at the end of week 3.
1 A timeline: Helene Cooper and Edward Wong. (2023). “China’s spy balloon drifted for 7 days across the U.S.: A timeline,” New York Times, February 4, 2023.
