Last week marked the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The initial Russian drive to take Kiev in three days failed, with Russian forces increasingly pushed back to limited held territories in Eastern Ukraine. Russia’s uneven military performance has surprised many observers, and with substantial assistance from Western governments, Ukraine has managed to repel the Russian invasion for 12 months and retake significant amounts of territory that it lost in the initial phases of the war.
Now, the war seems to be a stalemate. Ukrainian and Russian forces are making limited progress along the front, with both Russia and Ukraine consolidating their defenses and (for Russia) limited territorial gains in the East. Both sides continue to generate military power—through foreign assistance and expanded military mobilization—and suffer heavy losses. Ukraine and Russia continue to gather substantial international support and assistance for their war efforts, although the long-term intensity of this assistance is unclear.
The human, material, and economic costs of the war are staggering. Russia is believed by U.S. intelligence to have had 200,000 killed or wounded in 12 months (a figure, for reference, that is eight times higher than U.S. casualties in two decades of war in Afghanistan). Ukraine is estimated to have had over 100,000 killed or wounded, in addition to tens of thousands of civilian deaths. Western military and economic aid for Ukraine continues to expand, with a roster of states committing billions of USD to the war effort. The United States alone has committed $76.8 billion in aid, 61 percent of which supports military activities. Direct economic damage in Ukraine is estimated at $100 billion, and, in late 2022, the OECD estimated that Russia’s invasion will cost the global economy $2.8 trillion by the end of 2023. Russia is currently prosecuting an offensive to take the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, in what would be the first major Russian victory in months of fighting. Early reports suggest slow and grinding advances with heavy casualties.
Address your memo to one of the following three people: the President of the United States, the President of Ukraine, or the President of Russia. Advise your selected leader on what you believe their next steps should be with respect to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Advise them on (1) what their most important goal should be with respect to the war, and (2) how they should proceed to accomplish that goal. Make sure to draw on theories and concepts from class to draw out possible contrasting goals and/or policies that each leader might pursue, and give a well-supported argument for why the policy you prefer has the best chance of success as you define it. You may consider all options to be on the table.
As with all memos, this is an exercise in thinking through the possible positions of various actors in IR. Taking a position in this memo does not require endorsing that position in your own political views.
This policy memo is due at the end of week 5.
