17.951 | Spring 2005 | Graduate

Intelligence: Practice, Problems and Prospects

Readings

Required Texts

Lowenthal, Mark M. Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003. ISBN: 9781568027593.

Treverton, Gregory. Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information. Cambridge, UK, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780521580960.

Richelson, Jeffrey T. The U.S. Intelligence Community. 4th ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999. ISBN: 9780813368931.

Readings by Session

Lec # Topics readings
1 Introduction

Richelson. Chapter 1.

Johnson, Loch K. “Bricks and Mortar for a Theory of Intelligence.” Comparative Strategy 22, no. 1 (2003): 1-28.

Fry, Michael G., and Miles Hochstein. “Epistemic Communities: Intelligence Studies and International Relations.” In Espionage: Past, Present, and Future? Edited by Wesley K. Wark. London, UK: Frank Cass, 1994, pp. 14-28. ISBN: 9780714640990.

Gaddis, John Lewis. “Intelligence, Espionage, and Cold War History.” Chapter 5 in The United States and the End of the Cold War: Implications, Reconsiderations, Provocations. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1994, pp. 87-104. ISBN: 9780195085518.

2 Origins, Structure, and Functions of the Intelligence Community

Treverton. Chapter 1.

Richelson. Chapters 2, 3, and 6. (Skim)

Andrew, Christopher M. Chapter 5 in For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush. 1st ed. New York, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 149-198. ISBN: 9780060170370.

May, Ernest R. “Intelligence: Backing into the Future.” Foreign Affairs 71, no. 3 (Summer 1992): 63-72.

Kindsvater, Larry C. “A Senior Officer’s Perspective: The Need to Reorganize the Intelligence Community.” Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 1 (2003): 33-37.

3 Collection

Treverton. Chapter 5.

Richelson. Chapters 7-12. (Skim)

Richelson, Jeffrey T. “The Satellite Gap.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 1 (January/February 2003): 48-54.

Steele, Robert David. “Private Enterprise Intelligence: Its Potential Contribution to National Security.” Intelligence and National Security 10, no. 4 (October 1995): 212-228.

Fairchild, Brian P. Statement before the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress. May 20, 1998.

4 Analysis

Treverton. Chapter 4.

Richelson. Chapter 14. (Skim)

Hulnick, Arthur. “The Intelligence Producer-Policy Consumer Linkage: A Theoretical Approach.” Intelligence and National Security 1, no. 1 (1986): 212-233.

Lefebvre, Stéphane. “A Look at Intelligence Analysis.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17, no. 2 (Summer 2004): 231-264.

Johnson, Loch K. “The CIA’s Weakest Link.” The Washington Monthly, July/August 2001, 9-14.

Berkowitz, Bruce. “The DI and IT: Failing to Keep Up with the Information Revolution.” Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 1 (2003): 67-74.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. “Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Pre-War Assessments on Iraq: Conclusions.” pp. 1-30.

Gormley, Dennis. “The Limits of Intelligence: Iraq’s Lessons.” Survival 46, no. 3 (Autumn 2004): 7-28.

5 Intelligence and National Policy

Treverton. Chapter 6.

Davis, Jack. “The Kent-Kendall Debate of 1949.” Studies in Intelligence 36, no. 5 (Summer 1991): pp. 91-103.

Harkabi, Yehoshafat. “The Intelligence-Policymaker Tangle.” The Jerusalem Quarterly 30 (Winter 1984): 125-131.

Hughes, Thomas L. The Fate of Facts in a World of Men: Foreign Policy and Intelligence-Making. Headline Series No. 233. New York, NY: Foreign Policy Association, 1976, pp. 36-52.

Prados, John. “Iraq: A Necessary War?” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 59, no. 3 (May/June 2003): 26-33.

Barstow, David. “The Nuclear Card.” New York Times, October 3, 2004, A1.

Hersh, Seymour. “Selective Intelligence.” The New Yorker, May 12, 2003.

6 Surprise Attack and Strategic Warning

Betts, Richard. “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable.” World Politics 31, no. 1 (1978): 61-89.

Levite, Ariel. Intelligence and Strategic Surprises. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1987, pp. 1-38. ISBN: 9780231063746.

Davis, Jack. “Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis?” Occasional Papers 2, no. 1 (January 2003). Washington, DC: Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis.

Vickers, Robert, Jr. “The State of Warning Today.” Defense Intelligence Journal 7, no. 2 (1998): 9-15.

Ellis, Jason D., and Geoffrey D. Kiefer. Chapter 4 in Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004, pp. 87-108. ISBN: 9780801879586.

7 Military Intelligence

Treverton. Chapter 3.

Richelson. Chapters 4, and 5. (Skim)

Handel, Michael I. “Leaders in Intelligence.” In Leaders and Intelligence. London, UK: Frank Cass, 1989, pp. 3-39. ISBN: 9780714640594.

Keegan, John. Introduction, Chapter 1, and Conclusion in Intelligence in War: Knowledge of the Enemy from Napoleon to al Qaeda. New York, NY: Alfred A Knopf, 2003, pp. 3-25, and 321-352. ISBN: 9780375400537.

Krepinevich, Andrew. “Emerging Threats, Revolutionary Capabilities, and Military Transformation.” Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities. March 5, 1999.

May, Ernest. Strange Victory: Hitler’s Conquest of France. 1st ed. New York, NY: Hill and Wang, 2000, pp. 240-268. ISBN: 9780809089062.

MacDonald, Charles B. A Time for Trumpets: The Untold Story of the Battle of the Bulge. New York, NY: Perennial, 1997, pp. 17-79. ISBN: 9780688151577.

Wirtz, James. “Intelligence to Please? The Order of Battle Controversy during the Vietnam War.” Political Science Quarterly 106, no. 2 (1991): 239-263.

8 ASW Case Study

Beesly, Patrick. Introduction and Chapters 1, 6, 7, 10, and 11 in Very Special Intelligence: The Story of the Admiralty’s Operational Intelligence Centre, 1939-1945. London, UK: Greenhill Books, 2000. ISBN: 9781853673986.

Cohen, Eliot, and John Gooch. Chapter 4 in Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War, 1990. New York, NY: The Free Press, 1990, pp. 59-94. ISBN: 9780029060605.

9 Counterinsurgency

Ford, Harold P. CIA and the Vietnam Policymakers: Three Episodes 1962-68. Langley, VA: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1998, pp. 86-104.

Wirtz, James. “Conclusion: Explaining the Failure of Intelligence.” In The Tet Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991, pp. 252-275. ISBN: 9780801424861.

Grau, Lester W. “Something Old, Something New: Guerrillas, Terrorists, and Intelligence Analysts.” Military Review 84 (July-August 2004): 42-49.

Metz, Steven. “Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq.” The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 1 (Winter 2003-04): 25-36.

10 Covert Action

Richelson. Chapter 16.

Andrew, Christopher M. Chapter 5 in For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush. 1st ed. New York, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 199-212, and 250-276. ISBN: 9780060170370.

Shulsky, Adam. Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence. 3rd ed. Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 2002, Chapter 4, pp. 83-109. ISBN: 9781574883459.

Berkowitz, Bruce D., and Allan E. Goodman. “The Logic of Covert Action.” The National Interest 51 (Spring 1998): 38-46.

Treverton, Gregory F. “Controlling Covert Action.” In Controlling Intelligence. Edited by Glenn P. Hastedt. London, UK: Frank Cass, 1991, pp. 113-133. ISBN: 9780714633947.

Godson, Roy. Chapter 4 in Dirty Tricks and Trump Cards: U.S. Covert Action and Counterintelligence. Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 2000, pp. 120-183. ISBN: 9780765806994.

National Security Archives. “El Salvador: War, Peace and Human Rights, 1980-1994.”

National Security Archives. “Nicaragua: The Making of U.S. Policy, 1962-1989.”

11 Counterterrorism

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Chapters 3, 4, 6, 8, and 11 in The 9/11 Commission Report. New York, NY: Norton, 2004. ISBN: 9780393326710.

Herman, Michael. “Counter-Terrorism, Information Technology, and Intelligence Change.” Intelligence and National Security 18, no. 4 (Winter 2003): 40-58.

Gunaratna, Rohan. “The Post-Madrid Face of Al Qaeda.” The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 91-100.

Pillar, Paul. “Counterterrorism after Al Qaeda.” The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 101-113.

Berkowitz, Bruce. “Intelligence and the War on Terrorism.” Orbis 46, no. 2 (Spring 2002): 289-300.

Kauppi, Mark V. “Counterterrorism Analysis 101.” In Defense Intelligence Journal 1, no. 1 (Winter 2002): 39-53.

12 WMD and Nonproliferation

Ellis, Jason D., and Geoffrey D. Kiefer. Chapters 2, 3, and 5 in Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004. ISBN: 9780801879586.

Carter, Ashton B. “How to Counter WMD.” Foreign Affairs 83, no. 5 (September/October 2004): 72-85.

Treverton, Gregory F. “Intelligence: The Achilles Heel of the Bush Doctrine.” Arms Control Today (July/August 2003): 9-11.

“Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the Director of Central Intelligence on Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction.” September 30th, 2004. (“Duelfer Report”)

13 Intelligence and Democracy

Richelson. Chapter 14.

Andrew, Christopher M. Chapter 5 in For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush. 1st ed. New York, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 370-374, 389-390, and 397-424. ISBN: 9780060170370.

Johnson, Loch K. “The CIA and the Question of Accountability.” Intelligence and National Security 12, no. 1 (January 1997): 178-200.

Knott, Stephen. “Executive Power and the Control of American Intelligence.” Intelligence and National Security 13, no. 2 (Summer 1998): 171-176.

Johnson, Loch K. “Intelligence and the Challenge of Collaborative Government.” Intelligence and National Security 13, no. 2 (Summer 1998): 177-182.

Buy at MIT Press Heymann, Philip B. Terrorism, Freedom, and Security: Winning Without War. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003, pp. 61-84. ISBN: 9780262083270.

Jeffrey-Jones, Rhodri. Introduction, Chapter 13, and Conclusion in The CIA and American Democracy. 2nd ed. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1998. ISBN: 9780300077377.

———. Chapters 12-14 in Cloak and Dollar: A History of American Secret Intelligence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2003. ISBN: 9780300101591.

14 Future Threats and Intelligence Reform

Treverton. Chapter 2.

Best, Richard A., Jr. Proposals for Intelligence Reorganization, 1949-2004. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, July 29, 2004.

Wilson, James Q. “Thinking About Reorganization.” In U.S. Intelligence at the Crossroads: Agendas for Reform. Edited by Roy Godson, Ernest R. May, and Gary Schmitt. Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 1995. ISBN: 9780028811222.

Davis, Lynn E., Gregory F. Treverton, Daniel Byman, Sara Daly, and William Rosenau. “Coordinating the War on Terrorism.” RAND Occasional Paper, March 2004. OP-110-RC.

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Chapter 13 in The 9/11 Commission Report. New York, NY: Norton, 2004. ISBN: 9780393326710.

Cordesman, Anthony. “The 9/11 Commission Report: Strengths and Weaknesses.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 2, 2004.

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