Nuclear Weapons in International Politics: Past, Present and Future

Readings

SES #	TOPICS	READINGS
1	Introduction	No readings
2	What is a Nuclear Weapon?	Cote, Owen, Jr., Graham T. Allison, Richard A. Falkenrath, and Steven E. Miller. “Appendix B: A Primer on Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapon Design.” In Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1996. ISBN: 9780262510882. Holdren, John, and Matt Bunn. “Technical Background: Nuclear Basics, Nuclear Weapons Design and Materials, and Nuclear Weapon Effects.” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2002. Serber, Robert. The Los Alamos Primer. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992, pp. ix-xxi and 1-61. ISBN: 9780520075764. Hoddeson, Lillian, Paul W. Henrikson, Roger A. Meade, and Catherine Westfall. Critical Assembly: A Technical History of Los Alamos during the Oppenheimer Years, 1943-1945. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp. 228-248. ISBN: 9780521541176. Garwin, Richard L., and Georges Charpak. Megawatts and Megatons. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago, 2002, pp. 13-30 and 58-78. ISBN: 9780226284279.
3	How Do You Make One?	Holdren, John, and Matt Bunn. “Technical Background: Nuclear Material Production.” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2002. Smyth, Hendry De Wolf. “Atomic Energy for Military Purposes.” Reviews of Modern Physics 17, no. 4 (October 1945): 366-370, 382-384, 392-401, 411-419 and 422-430. Carlisle, Rodney P., and Joan M. Zenzen. Supplying the Nuclear Arsenal: American Production Reactors, 1942-1992. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996, pp. 70-78. ISBN: 9780801852077. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1993, pp. 136-149 and 176-180. Albright, David. “North Korean Plutonium Production.” Science & Global Security 5 (1994): 63-87. (PDF) Albright, David, Frans Berkhout, and William Walker. Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996, World Inventories, Capabilities, and Policies. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1997, pp. 271-279 and 461-471. ISBN: 9780198280095. International Panel on Fissile Materials. Global Fissile Material Report 2008: Scope and Verification of a Fissile Material (Cutoff) Treaty. 2008. pp. 7-21. (PDF - 7.2MB)
4	What Are They For?	Herken, Gregg. Counsels of War. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, USA, 1987, pp. 3-17. ISBN: 9780195049862. Sagan, Scott D. Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990, pp. 10-57. ISBN: 9780691023267. Betts, Richard K. Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1987, pp. 1-16, 174-179, 180-195, and 206-211. ISBN: 9780815709350. Greenwood, John T. “The Emergence of the Postwar Strategic Air Force, 1945-1953.” In Air Power and Warfare: The Proceedings of the 8th Military History Symposium United States Air Force Academy. Edited by Alfred F. Hurley and Robert C. Ehrhart. Honolulu, HI: University Press of the Pacific, 2002. ISBN: 9780898757903. Rosenberg, David A. “American Postwar Air Doctrine and Organization: The Navy Experience.” In Air Power and Warfare: The Proceedings of the 8th Military History Symposium United States Air Force Academy. Edited by Alfred F. Hurley and Robert C. Ehrhart. Honolulu, HI: University Press of the Pacific, 2002. ISBN: 9780898757903.
5	How Do You Deliver Them?	Beard, Edmund. Developing the ICBM. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1976, pp. 129-194. ISBN: 9780231040129. Spinardi, Graham. From Polaris to Trident: The Development of U.S. Fleet Ballistic Missle Technology. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2008, pp. 19-34. ISBN: 9780521054010. Reed, George A. U.S. Defense Policy, U.S. Air Force Doctrine and Strategic Nuclear Weapon Systems, 1958-1964: The Case of the Minuteman ICBM. Durham, NC: Duke University, 1986, pp. 42-100. Greenwood, Ted. Making the MIRV: A Study of Defense Decision Making. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1988, pp. 1-11 and 27-50.
6	How Do You Control Them?	Carter, Ashton B., John D. Steinbrunner, and Charles A Zraket. Managing Nuclear Operations. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1987, pp. 217-282 and 555-610. ISBN: 9780815713135. Blair, Bruce G. Blair. Strategic Command and Control: Redefining the Nuclear Threat. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1985, pp. 241-280. ISBN: 9780815709817.
7	How Do You Assess Force Structure?	Schilling, Warner. “U.S. Strategic Nuclear Concepts in the 1970’s.” International Security 6, no. 2 (Autumn 1981): 48-79. Perry, William. “Technological Prospects.” In Rethinking the U.S. Strategic Posture. Edited by Barry M. Blechman. Pensacola, FL: Ballinger, 1982, pp. 129-155. Cote, Owen. “Collecting the D-5 Dividend.” International Security 16, no. 2 (Autumn 1991): 117-145.
8	How Do You Model Exchanges?	Davis, Lynn Etheridge, and Warner R. Schilling. “All You Ever Wanted to Know about MIRV and ICBM Calculations but Were Not Cleared to Ask.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 17, no. 2 (June 1973): 207-242. Epstein, Joshua M. The 1987 Defense Budget. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000, pp. 10-25. ISBN: 9780815724575. Salman, Michael, Kevin J. Sullivan, and Stephen Van Evera. “Analysis or Propaganda.” In Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates. Edited by Lynn Eden and Steven E. Miller. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989, pp. 205-263. ISBN: 9780801494994.
9	Why Do Countries Pursue or Forego Nuclear Weapons?	Sagan, Scott D. “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons: Three Models in Search of a Bomb.” International Security 21, no. 3 (Winter 1996/97): 54-86. (PDF - 3.6MB) Quester, George H. “The Epistemology of Nuclear Proliferation.” Journal of International Affairs 40 (Summer 1986): 177-188. Abraham, Itty. “The Ambivalence of Nuclear Histories.” Osiris 21 (2006): 49-65. (PDF) Betts, Richard K. “Paranoids, Pygmies, Pariahs and Nonproliferation Revisited.” Security Studies 2, no. 3 (1993): 100-124. Singh, Sonali, and Christopher R. Way. “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 6 (2004): 859-885.
10	Which Countries Have Pursued or Abandoned Nuclear Weapons (Cases)?	Students were asked to read one reading from either the Australia or Egypt lists AND one reading from either the France or India lists. Australia Walsh, Jim. “Surprise Down Under: The Secret History of Australia’s Nuclear Ambitions.” Nonproliferation Review 5, no. 1 (Fall 1997): 1-20. (PDF) Paul, T. V. Power Versus Prudence: Why Nations Forgo Nuclear Weapons. Montreal, QB: McGill-Queens University Press, 2000, pp. 78-84. ISBN: 9780773520875. Hymans, Jacques. The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy. London, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006, pp. 114-140. ISBN: 9780521850766. Egypt Walsh, Jim. Bombs Unbuilt: Power, Ideas, and Institutions in International Politics. Ph.D. diss, Department of Political Science, MIT, 2001. Chapters 6, 8-10. France Hymans, Jacques. The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006, pp. 85-113. ISBN: 9780521850766. Gordon, Philip H. “Charles de Gaulle and the Nuclear Revolution.” In Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb: Nuclear Diplomacy Since 1945. Edited by John Lewis Gaddis, Phillip H. Gordon, Ernest R. May, and Jonathan Rosenberg. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, USA, 1999, 216-235. ISBN: 9780198294689. India Abraham, Itty. The Making of the Indian Atomic Bomb: Science, Secrecy and the Postcolonial State. Hyderabad, India: Orient Longman, Ltd., 1999. ISBN: 9788125016151. Perkovich, George. India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780520232105. Ollapally, Deepa M. “Mixed Motives in India’s Search for Nuclear Status.” Asian Survey 41, no. 6 (2001): 925-942. Chakma, Bhumitra. “Toward Pokhran II: Explaining India’s Nuclearisation Process.” Modern Asian Studies 39, no. 1 (February 2006): 189-236.
11	What Role Do Individuals and Institutions Play in Nuclear Decision Making?	Lavoy, Peter. “Nuclear Myths and the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation.” In The Proliferation Puzzle: Why Nuclear Weapons Spread (and What Results). Edited by Zachary S. Davis and Benjamin Frankel. New York, NY: Routledge, 1993, pp. 193-199. ISBN: 9780714641089. Walsh, Jim. “Learning from Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Nonproliferation.” WMDC Paper no. 41. Oslo: Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, 2006, pp. 42-59. Treaty On The Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons. (1968) International Court of Justice. “Legality of the Use by a State of Nuclear Weapons in Armed Conflict.” Advisory Opinion handed down on July 8, 1996, the Hague. Lavoy, Peter. “Nuclear Proliferation Over the Next Decade: Cause Warning Signs, and Policy Responses.” Nonproliferation Review 13, no. 3 (November 2006): 434-454. (PDF) Solingen, Etel. “The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint.” International Security 19, no. 2 (Spring 1994): 126-169.
12	Have Nuclear Weapons Changed International Relations?	Jervis, Robert. The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990, pp. 1-45. ISBN: 9780801495656. Mueller, John. “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World.” International Security 13, no. 2 (Fall 1988): 3-17. Sagan, Scott D., and Kenneth N. Waltz. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002. ISBN: 9780393977479. Deudney, Daniel. “Nuclear Weapons and the Waning of the Real-State.” Daedalus 124, no. 2 (Spring 1995): 209-231.
13	What are Today’s Nuclear Threats? Rogues, Renegades, and the Recalcitrant?	Students were asked to read the articles listed under Iran or the ones listed under DPRK, as well as, all the articles under Black Markets and New Proliferation. Iran Walsh, Jim. “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Motivations, Consequences, and Options.” In Terrorist Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategies for Overlapping Dangers. By Demetrios Caraley. New York, NY: Academy of Political Science, 2007. ISBN: 9781884853067. Fitzpatrick, Mark. “Assessing Iran’s Nuclear Programme.” Survival 48, no. 3 (Autumn 2006): 5-26. (PDF) National Intelligence Council. 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. (PDF) Iran’s 2003 proposal to the United States (PDF) IAEA reports on Iran: November, 2003 (PDF); May, 2007 (PDF). DPRK Oberdorfer, Don. The Two Koreas. New York, NY: Basic Books, 2002. ISBN: 9780465051625. Snyder, Scott. Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior. Washington, DC: USIP, 1999, pp. 17-42. ISBN: 9781878379948. Reiss, Mitchell. “Negotiating with North Korea.” Conference paper presented at US-DPRK Next Steps Workshop, Nautilus Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 27, 2003, pp. 1-3. “Agreed Framework Between the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.” Geneva, 1994. (PDF) February 14th agreement Martin, Bradley K. Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader. New York, NY: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2006. ISBN: 9780312323226. Norland, Marcus. Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas. Washington: IIE, 2000, pp. 59-141. ISBN: 9780881322781. Walsh, Jim. “Trip Report from North Korea.” 2005 Black markets and new proliferation Albright, David, and Corey Hinderstein. “Unraveling the A. Q. Khan and Future Proliferation Networks.” The Washington Quarterly 28, no. 2 (Spring 2005): 111-128. Dunn, Lewis A. “Countering Proliferation: Insights from Past ‘‘Wins, Losses, and Draws.’’ Nonproliferation Review 13, no. 3 (November 2006): 479-489. Montgomery, Alexander H. “Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network.” International Security 30, no. 2 (Fall 2005): 153-187. Braun, Chaim, and Christopher Chyba. “Nuclear Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” International Security 29, no. 2 (Fall 2004): 5-49.
14	Nuclear Terrorism	Bunn, Matthew. Securing the Bomb 2007. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 2007, pp. 1-40. Salama, Sammy, and Lydia Hansell. “Does Intent Equal Capability? Al-Qaeda and Weapons of Mass Destruction.” Nonproliferation Review 12, no. 3 (2005): 615-653. (PDF) Mueller, John. “The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood.” Paper prepared for presentation at the Program on International Security Policy, University of Chicago, January 15, 2008, pp. 1-28. (PDF) Harney, Robert, Gerald Brown, Matthew Carlyle, Eric Skroch, and Kevin Wood. “Anatomy of a Project to Produce a First Nuclear Weapon.” Science and Global Security 14, nos. 2-3 (May-December 2006): 163-182. (PDF) Bunn, Matthew, and Anthony Wier. “Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607, no. 1 (September 2006): 133-149. Bunn, Matthew. “A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607, no. 1 (September 2006): 103-120.