Readings

Lec # TOPICS READINGS
Phase One
1 Uncertainty

The Engineer’s View

On the Power and the Limits of Analysis

McManus, Hugh, and Daniel Hastings. “A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty and its Mitigation and Exploitation in Complex Systems.” (PDF) (Courtesy of Hugh McManus and Daniel Hastings. Used with permission.)

Simon, Herbert. “Rationality and Administrative Behavior,” and “The Psychology of Administration.” Chapters 4, and 5 in Administrative Behavior. 4th ed. New York, NY: Free Press, 1997. ISBN: 9780684835822.

2 On Handling Messy Complexity Hughes, Thomas P. Rescuing Prometheus. New York, NY: Knopf, 2000. ISBN: 9780679739388.
3 The Engineering Mindset

Analysis of the Columbia Disaster

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report
4 Bureaucratic Politics

Some Powerful Dumb Ideas about Politics and Policymaking

Allison, Graham, and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. 2nd ed. Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley Longman Inc., 1999, especially chapters 5, 6, and 7. ISBN: 0321033256.
5 Technological Forecasting

Methods for Forecasting; Predictions for the Future; How have they Actually Worked?

U.S. Office of Technology Assessment Reports

“Ballistic Missile Defense Technologies.” September 1985. (PDF - 5.0 MB)
“Computer-Based National Information Systems: Technology and Public Policy Issues.” September 1981. (PDF - 2.7 MB)
“Nuclear Power in an Age of Uncertainty.” February 1984. (PDF - 9.0 MB)

Cuhls, K., and T. Kuwahara. Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology: Comparing Japanese and German Technology Forecast Surveys. Heidelberg, Germany: Physica-Verlag, 1994. ISBN: 9783790808001.

Phase Two: Structured Case Presentations
6 GPS for Selected Applications  
7 Packet Switching for Data Communication  
8 The Minicomputer  
9 Supersonic Transport (SST)  
10 Seldane to Allegra  
11 The National Airspace System  
Phase Three
12 Ubiquitous Computing: Analysis and Review of Collected Material from the Last Year  

Course Info

Learning Resource Types

notes Lecture Notes