Lecture Notes

Acknowledgements

The lecture notes for Part II: Decision Analysis draw strongly on the 1978 course manual “Decision Analysis” by Professors Alvin Drake and Ralph Keeney. The notes for Part III: Cost-Benefit Analysis are derived from material first developed by Professor Amedeo Odoni.

SES # Topics
Part 1: Reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (RPRA)
1

Introduction ( PDF)

RPRA 1: The logic of certainty ( PDF)

2 RPRA 2: Elements of probability theory ( PDF)
3 RPRA 3: Probability distributions ( PDF)
4 RPRA 3: Probability distributions (cont.)
5 RPRA 4: Availability ( PDF)
6 RPRA 5: Data and epistemic uncertainties; statistics ( PDF)
7 RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment ( PDF)
8 RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (cont.)
9 RPRA 7: Risk management ( PDF)
10 Guest lecture
11 Guest lecture
12 RPRA quiz
Part II: Decision analysis (DA)
13 DA 1: The multistage decision model ( PDF)
14 DA 2: The value of perfect information ( PDF)
15 DA 3: The axioms of rational behavior ( PDF)
16

DA 4: Introduction to utility ( PDF)

DA 5: Risk aversion ( PDF)

17 DA 6: Multiattribute utility theory ( PDF)
18 DA 7: Decision analysis and risk management ( PDF)
19 Guest lecture
20 DA quiz
Part III: Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
21 CBA 1: Background and fundamental premises ( PDF)
22 CBA 2: The time value of money ( PDF)
23 CBA 3: Bases for comparison of alternatives ( PDF)
24 CBA 4: Including uncertainty ( PDF)
25 CBA 5: Evaluating public activities ( PDF)
26 Guest lecture
27 CBA quiz