IDS.333 | Fall 2021 | Graduate

IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

Calendar

This course was taught at MIT as a half-term course. Learners can choose a learning pace based on their learning need.

[FD] = Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes. Flexibility in Engineering Design, MIT Press, 2011. ISBN: 9780262016230. [Preview with Google Books]

[ASA] = Richard de Neufville. Applied Systems Analysis: Engineering Planning and Technology Management (free download). McGraw-Hill, 1990. ISBN: 9780070163720.

[XL] = Excel and @Risk boot camp material

Unit 1: Introduction

Session 1: Risk and Decision Analysis; Engineering Systems Analysis for Design

Topic: Introduction; paradigm change; Lordos example

Readings: [FD] Chapters 1 and 2

Pre-class Assignment: Self-introduction (video)

Major Assignment: HW 1 document experience out

Intended Takeaways: Paradigm change

Unit 2: The Forecast Is “Always” Wrong:

Session 2: The Forecast Is “Always” Wrong

Topic: Forecast “always wrong;” flaw of averages

Readings: [FD] Chapter 4

Pre-class Assignment: Uncertainty examples (video)

Major Assignment: n/a

Intended Takeaways: Forecast is “always” wrong’! We must deal with distribution recognizing overconfidence.

Unit 3: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):

Session 3: DCF Analysis Introduction and DCF Mechanics

Topic: Discounted cash flow

Readings: [FD] Appendix B

Pre-class Assignment: [ASA] Chapters 12 and 13 (readings)

Major Assignment: n/a

Intended Takeaways: Time value of money; Choice of discount rate is crucial.

Unit 4: Garage Case

Session 4: Garage Case Example

Topic: Garage case

Readings: ASCE article; [XL] Review

Pre-class Assignment: videos; ASCE article (readings)

Major Assignment: HW 2 Excel out

Intended Takeaways: Flexibility as win-win

Unit 5: Simulation Mechanics

Session 5: Mechanics of Simulation

Topic: Simulation mechanics

Readings: [FD] Appendix D

Pre-class Assignment: Simulation (videos)

Major Assignment: HW 1 due

Intended Takeaways: Rapid Excel analysis of complex choices

Unit 6: Excel Template Recitation

Session 6: Excel Template Recitation

Topic: Excel Template recitation

Readings: Garage case and template

Pre-class Assignment: Pre-read questions

Major Assignment: Draft HW 2 due

Intended Takeaways: Practical use of simulation

Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility

Session 7: Excel Template Recitation

Topic: Flexibility drivers; optimal cycle time

Readings: [FD] on learning

Pre-class Assignment: Manne images (videos)

Major Assignment: HW 3 decision analysis and EVPI out 

Intended Takeaways: Discount rate and learning curve vs. Economies of Scale

Unit 8: Decision Analysis

Session 8: Decision Analysis

Topic: Decision analysis

Readings: [ASA] Chapter 16

Pre-class Assignment: Structuring decisions (videos)

Major Assignment: HW 2 due

Intended Takeaways: Structured analysis limited choice and timing

Unit 9: Value of Information

Session 9: Information Gathering as a Strategy

Topic: Value of information

Readings: [ASA] Chapter 17

Pre-class Assignment: Value of information (videos)

Major Assignment: n/a

Intended Takeaways: Waiting leads to valuable Learning.

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation

Session 10-1: Evaluating and Choosing Preferred Projects

Topic: Other evaluation criteria

Readings: [FD] Chapter 3

Pre-class Assignment: Utility (videos) 

Major Assignment: n/a

Intended Takeaways: Expectation vs. risk aversion, is optimum a good concept?

Session 10-2: Economic Evaluation 

Topic: Utility analysis

Readings: [ASA] Chapter 18

Pre-class Assignment: Case study (videos)

Major Assignment: HW 3 due

Intended Takeaways: Group utility not meaningful

Unit 11: Review and Quiz

Session 11: Investment in Large Plants

Topic: Review for quiz

Readings: n/a

Pre-class Assignment: Pre-quiz questions

Major Assignment: n/a

Intended Takeaways: Integrated view of material

Course Info

As Taught In
Fall 2021
Level
Learning Resource Types
Lecture Notes
Video Materials
Instructor Insights
Projects with Examples
Media Assignments
Exams with Solutions