Instructor Interview
Below, Prof. Richard de Neufville describes various aspects of how he teaches IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis.
OCW: What is IDS.333 fundamentally about, and who is it for?
Richard de Neufville: The course is designed for those who aspire to leadership in technological systems and already have undergraduate technical skills. It helps students develop flexible strategies for dealing with risks and uncertainties.
OCW: Why is it important to teach this topic?
Richard de Neufville: Teaching risk and decision analysis is fundamental for technological leadership, because the development, deployment, and use of technological systems is inescapably full of uncertainties and risks. Leaders need to know how to deal effectively with this reality.
More deeply, this course is taught as part of a fundamental change in engineering education. The traditional paradigm in systems design is that Step 1 is to define “requirements” to specify precisely what is needed. However, we now can recognize that we can’t really define what clients or circumstances will actually need. The fact is that “needs” change over time for all kinds of reasons.
The new paradigm recognizes that forecasts are inevitably wrong—and thus that we need to design our technological developments to evolve in line with what actually is desirable over time—the iPhone is an example.
Consequently, we need to develop strategies for managing risks and making decisions. This is the central concept of this MIT version of Risk and Decision Analysis.
OCW: You’ve recently begun using a “flipped classroom” technique in your teaching. Can you describe how that works in this course?
Richard de Neufville: The flipped classroom approach exploits our ability to distribute class material in advance through electronic media and avoid using lectures—a medieval legacy.
In class, the instructor actively engages with students rather than distributing content. Rather than talking at students unprepared for new content, the instructor talks with students prepared for class.
OCW: How do you ensure that students come to class having read/viewed the required materials ahead of time?
Richard de Neufville: Students will read/view the material before class, because an indispensable 30% of their grade depends on filling out associated app-based questionnaires. These apps sort, analyze, and present student responses so the instructor can process them efficiently and use them in class.
[See this further description of how the flipped classroom works.]
OCW: What results have you observed from the change to an app-enabled flipped classroom?
Richard de Neufville: Firstly, students engage actively with the material and define their questions before class. Secondly, instructors can have much greater engagement through direct discussions with students. Lastly, we have observed improved learning outcomes on assignments and quizzes—and a change of mindset on how to deal with risks and opportunities.
OCW: How has the role of the teaching assistant changed with these changes in the way you use classroom time?
Richard de Neufville: The in-class format featuring discussions with students naturally involves TA participation—coaching in-class exercises, discussions, etc. The TA thus builds relationships with students, which facilitates their confidence to seek information and clarifications.
OCW: What would you like to share about teaching IDS.333 that we haven’t yet addressed?
Richard de Neufville: Unlike in traditional courses on “Risk and Decision Analysis,” which focus on a range of mechanics of analysis, in IDS.333 we don’t spend much time on theoretical approaches with little practical use, such as Bayesian analysis, decision tree analysis, and utility theory.
Instead, we offer students the skillsets to define the range of possible outcomes for any design using simulation, to understand flexibility as the driver of good performance in the face of risk, and to identify the design flexibilities that most effectively improve outcomes. Most fundamentally, the course offers a change in mindset, focusing on strategic thinking for dealing with uncertainties.
Curriculum Information
Prerequisites
None
Requirements Satisfied
IDS.333 can be applied toward a master’s degree in System Design and Management or a master’s degree in Supply Chain Management, but is not required.
Offered
Every fall semester
Assessment
Course grades were assigned based on a weighted average of the following elements:
- 30% Participation (pre-reads)
- 36% Three homework assignments (equal weight on each assignment)
- 34% Quiz
Student Information
Enrollment
65 students
Breakdown by Major
2/3 of students were in the MIT System Design and Management (SDM) program.
Typical Student Background
Over 90% of the students had engineering or science degrees, and most had 5 to 15 years of work experience. They were familiar with probability and statistics, but not with the concepts of strategies for how to deal proactively with risk.
How Student Time Was Spent
During an average week, students were expected to spend 12 hours on the course, roughly divided as follows:
In Class (3 hours)
- Met 2 times per week for 1.5 hour per session; 13 sessions total; mandatory attendance
- Class sessions were devoted to faculty-led discussion responding to student reactions to the assigned course material.
Out of Class (9 hours)
On their own time, students studied the course materials posted online and submitted responses to the instructors via online forms. They also spent time completing three homework assignments and preparing for the final quiz.
