IDS.333 | Fall 2021 | Graduate

IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

Videos

The following videos serve as pre-class assignments in each unit (no videos for units 1, 3, and 6).

Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates
Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs
Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information
Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile?
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible?
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways
Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia
Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction
Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis
Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects
Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis

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Fall 2021
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Graduate
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