“Probability is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.”

—Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749–1827)

### Readings

- Notes, Chapter 5: Probability (PDF)
- Huffmann, David A. “A Method for the Construction of Minimum-Redundancy Codes.”
*Proceedings of the Institute of Radio Engineers*40 (September 1952): 1098–1101. - Towser’s Wonderland Park greyhound handicaps,
*Boston Globe*, February 27, 2005 (and results,*Boston Globe*, February 28, 2005)

### Assignments

### Resources

#### Technical

- Salomon, David. “Huffman Coding, section 2.8; Facsimile Compression using Huffman Coding, section 2.13.” In
*Data Compression*. London, England: Springer, 2006. ISBN: 9781846286025. - The Human Mortality Database from University of California, Berkeley.
- MIT current year student enrollment data
- Sebastiani, Paola. “A Tutorial on Probability Theory (PDF).” One of many good tutorials on the subject.

#### Historical

- David, F. N.
*Games, Gods, and Gambling*. Dover, 1998. ISBN: 9780486400235. - Girolamo Cardano (1501–1576), the first mathematician to calculate probabilities correctly.
- Thomas Bayes (1702–1761)

#### General Technical Books

There are many excellent texts on probability, many of which do not assume a familiarity with mathematics beyond introductory calculus. Most books on communications include a summary of the necessary background in probability.

- Drake, Alvin W.
*Fundamentals of Applied Probability Theory*. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1967. ISBN: 9780070178151.

Prof. Drake taught 6.041 Probabilistic Systems Analysis for many years before he retired. He died Oct. 30, 2005. (Obituary) - Bertsekas, Dimitri P., and John N. Tsitsiklis.
*Introduction to Probability*. Belmont, MA: Athena Scientific, 2002. ISBN: 9781886529403. Used in 6.041 today. - Applebaum, David.
*Probability and Information*. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2008. ISBN: 9780521727884.

Chapter 4, Probability, contains a good comparison of the different philosophies underlying probability (symmetry, subjective, frequency). - Haykin, Simon.
*Communication Systems*. 4th ed. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2000. ISBN: 9780471178699.

Appendix 1,*Probability Theory*.