Acknowledgements
The lecture notes for Part II: Decision Analysis draw strongly on the 1978 course manual “Decision Analysis” by Professors Alvin Drake and Ralph Keeney. The notes for Part III: Cost-Benefit Analysis are derived from material first developed by Professor Amedeo Odoni.
| SES # | Topics |
|---|---|
| Part 1: Reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (RPRA) | |
| 1 |
Introduction (PDF) RPRA 1: The logic of certainty (PDF) |
| 2 | RPRA 2: Elements of probability theory (PDF) |
| 3 | RPRA 3: Probability distributions (PDF) |
| 4 | RPRA 3: Probability distributions (cont.) |
| 5 | RPRA 4: Availability (PDF) |
| 6 | RPRA 5: Data and epistemic uncertainties; statistics (PDF) |
| 7 | RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (PDF) |
| 8 | RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (cont.) |
| 9 | RPRA 7: Risk management (PDF) |
| 10 | Guest lecture |
| 11 | Guest lecture |
| 12 | RPRA quiz |
| Part II: Decision analysis (DA) | |
| 13 | DA 1: The multistage decision model (PDF) |
| 14 | DA 2: The value of perfect information (PDF) |
| 15 | DA 3: The axioms of rational behavior (PDF) |
| 16 |
DA 4: Introduction to utility (PDF) DA 5: Risk aversion (PDF) |
| 17 | DA 6: Multiattribute utility theory (PDF) |
| 18 | DA 7: Decision analysis and risk management (PDF) |
| 19 | Guest lecture |
| 20 | DA quiz |
| Part III: Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) | |
| 21 | CBA 1: Background and fundamental premises (PDF) |
| 22 | CBA 2: The time value of money (PDF) |
| 23 | CBA 3: Bases for comparison of alternatives (PDF) |
| 24 | CBA 4: Including uncertainty (PDF) |
| 25 | CBA 5: Evaluating public activities (PDF) |
| 26 | Guest lecture |
| 27 | CBA quiz |
