6.041SC | Fall 2013 | Undergraduate

Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability

Unit IV: Laws Of Large Numbers And Inference

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In this section, we start with a discussion of limit theorems: the weak law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. We then introduce the subject of inference (estimation and hypothesis testing), from two alternative viewpoints: first, Bayesian inference, which relies on a prior distribution for unknown quantities and on the Bayes rule to incorporate new evidence; and, second, classical inference, in which no probabilistic assumptions are made on the unknown quantities and instead relies heavily on the laws of large numbers to provide statistical guarantees, e.g., in the form of confidence intervals.

Lecture 19: Weak Law of Large Numbers

Lecture 20: Central Limit Theorem

Lecture 21: Bayesian Statistical Inference - I

Lecture 22: Bayesian Statistical Inference - II

Lecture 23 Classical Statistical Inference - I

Lecture 24: Classical Inference - II

Lecture 25: Classical Inference - III

Looking for something specific in this course? The Resource Index compiles links to most course resources in a single page.

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Lecture Topics

  • The sample mean
  • A tool: Chebyshev’s inequality
  • Convergence “in probability”
  • Convergence of the sample mean (weak law of large numbers)

Lecture Activities

Recitation Problems and Recitation Help Videos

Review the recitation problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own. Two of the problems have an accompanying video where a teaching assistant solves the same problem.

Recitation Help Videos

PROBLEM # PROBLEM TITLE PROBLEM SOLVED BY
2

Convergence in Probability and in the Mean Part 1

Convergence in Probability and in the Mean Part 2

Kuang Xu

Kuang Xu

3 Convergence in Probability Example Kuang Xu

Tutorial Problems

Review the tutorial problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own.

Problem Set and Solutions

Work the problems on your own and check your answers when you’re done. Problem set 9 covers Lectures 18 and 19.

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Lecture Topics

  • The Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
  • CLT interpretation
  • Application to polling
  • CLT refinements

Lecture Activities

Recitation Problems and Recitation Help Videos

Review the recitation problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own. Two of the problems have an accompanying video where a teaching assistant solves the same problem.

Recitation Help Videos

PROBLEM # PROBLEM TITLE PROBLEM SOLVED BY
1 Probabilty Bounds Kuang Xu
2 Using the Central Limit Theorem Jagdish Ramakrishnan

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Lecture Topics

  • More on least means squares (LMS) estimation
    • An example
    • The mean squared error
    • Theoretical properties
  • (Bayesian) Linear LMS estimation

Lecture Activities

Recitation Problems and Recitation Help Videos

Review the recitation problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own. One of the problems has an accompanying video where a teaching assistant solves the same problem.

Recitation Help Videos

PROBLEM # PROBLEM TITLE PROBLEM SOLVED BY
1

Inferring a Parameter of Uniform Part 1

Inferring a Parameter of Uniform Part 2

Jimmy Li

Jimmy Li

Tutorial Problems and Tutorial Help Videos

Review the tutorial problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own. One of the problems has an accompanying video where a teaching assistant solves the same problem.

Tutorial Help Videos

PROBLEM # PROBLEM TITLE PROBLEM SOLVED BY
1 An Inference Example Jimmy Li

Problem Set and Solutions

Work the problems on your own and check your answers when you’re done. Problem set 10 covers Lectures 20, 21, and 22.

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Lecture Topics

  • Classical statistics
  • Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation
  • Estimating a sample mean
  • Confidence intervals (CIs)
  • CIs using an estimated variance

Lecture Activities

Recitation Problems

Review the recitation problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own.

Tutorial Problems

Review the tutorial problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own.

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Lecture Topics

  • Review

    • Maximum likelihood estimation
    • Confidence intervals
  • Linear regression

  • Binary hypothesis testing

    • Types of error
    • Likelihood ratio test (LRT)

Lecture Activities

Recitation Problems

Review the recitation problems in the PDF file below and try to solve them on your own.

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  • Review of simple binary hypothesis tests

    • Examples
  • Testing composite hypotheses

    • Is my coin fair?
    • Is my die fair?
    • Goodness of fit tests

Lecture Activities

Problem Set and Solutions

Work the problems on your own and check your answers when you’re done. Problem set 11 covers Lectures 23, 24, and 25.

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Course Info

As Taught In
Fall 2013
Learning Resource Types
Lecture Videos
Recitation Videos
Problem Sets with Solutions
Exams with Solutions