Modeling and Assessment for Policy

Student Work

INSTRUCTIONS	TEAM MEMOS	READINGS
NASA’s Model Standard (PDF)	The Columbia Incident and NASA’s Standard for Modeling and Simulation (PDF) (Courtesy of Hisham Bedri, Erin Leidy, Daniela Miao, Jason Ryan, and Yi Xue. Used with permission.)	Green, Lawrence L., Steve R. Blattnig, et al. “An Uncertainty Structure Matrix for Models and Simulations.” (PDF) American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (2008). Smith, Marcia S. [“NASA’s Space Shuttle Columbia: Synopsis of the Report of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.” (PDF)](http://history.nasa.gov/columbia/Troxell/Columbia Web Site/Documents/Congress/CRS Summary of CAIB Report.pdf) CRS Report for Congress (2003). Steele, Martin J. “The NASA Standard for Models and Simulations.” Proceedings of the 2007 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (2007). Hale, Wayne. All blog entries posted in “After Ten Years.” Wayne Hale’s Blog.
Economic Modeling (PDF)	The Subprime Mortgage Crisis and Macroeconomic Models (PDF) (Courtesy of Franco Chingcuanco, Jareth Holt, and Neha Mehta. Used with permission.)	Krugman, Paul. “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?” The New York Times. September 2, 2009. Chari, Varadarajan V., and Patrick J. Kehoe. “Modern Macroeconomics in Practice: How Theory is Shaping Policy.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, no. 4 (2006): 3–28. Woodford, Michael. “Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 1 (2009): 267–79.
Oil Spill (PDF)	Policy Brief: Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (PDF) (Courtesy of Chidube Ezeozue, Stephen Maouyo, Julia Moline, Ralph Turlington, and Ekene Umeike. Used with permission.)	McNutt, Marcia K., Steven Chu, et al. “Applications of Science and Engineering to Quantify and Control the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, no. 50 (2012): 20222–8. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling. “The Amount and Fate of the Oil. Staff Working Paper No. 3.” (PDF) Originally Released October 6, 2010. Updated January 11, 2011. (Document in the public domain.) Guardian research. “BP Oil Spill Timeline,” The Guardian, 22 July, 2010. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, Final Report, Chapter 5: “Response and Containment”. (PDF - 3.8MB) 11 January 2011. (Document in the public domain.)
Clean Air (PDF)	Setting of the 2008 National Ambient Air Quality Standard for Ozone (PDF) (Courtesy of Abdulla AlMisnad, Justin Ketterer, and Nina Schuchman. Used with permission.)	Fact Sheet: Final Revisions To The National Ambient Air Quality Standards For Ozone. (PDF) Accessed February 19, 2014. (Document is by the Environmental Protection Agency, and is in the public domain.) McClellan, Roger O., Mark W. Frampton, et al. “Critical Considerations in Evaluating Scientific Evidence of Health Effects of Ambient Ozone: A Conference Report.” Inhalation Toxicology 21, no. S2 (2009): 1–36. Walsh, Bryan. “EPA’s New Ozone Limit: Not Enough?” Time Magazine, March 13, 2008. “Smog v. Jobs: Is Obama Admin Endangering U.S. Environment, Public Health with Retreat on Smog Standards?” Democracy Now. September 7, 2011. OAQPS Staff. “Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone: Policy Assessment of Scientific and Technical Information.” (PDF - 8.61MB) Accessed February 19, 2014. (Document is by the Environmental Protection Agency, and is in the public domain.)
Sports Statistics (PDF)	The Application and Impact of Numerical Models for Decision-Making in Sports (PDF) (Courtesy of Jordan James Foley, Roi Guinto, Nocola Ricci, and Marcus Wu Shihong. Used with permission.)	XOtericate. “Basic Football Part 1.” August 15, 2010. YouTube video, 10:52. Optional introduction to football video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwDx3wDvSbE Johnson, Robert. “An Introduction to Football Modelling at Smartodds Oxford SIAM Conference 2011.” (PDF) (2011). Oliver, Dean. “Guide to the Total Quarterback Rating.” ESPN. August 4, 2011. Stuart, Chase. “Analyzing ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating.” The Fifth Down: The New York Times N. F. L. Blog. November 22, 2011. “Wild New Twists in Big Ben Investigation.” FOX Sports on MSN. April 16, 2010. McCallum, Jack. “The Hangover: Roethlisberger.” Sports Illustrated. May 10, 2010.
Cancer Screening (PDF)	Breast Cancer Screening: A Case Study in Using Models to Inform Preventive Approaches (PDF) (Courtesy of Julie McNamara, and Jennifer Rood, and two anonymous MIT students. Used with permission.)	US Preventive Services Task Force. “Screening for Breast Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement.” Annals of Internal Medicine 151, no. 10 (2009): 716. Mandelblatt, Jeanne S., Kathleen A. Cronin, et al. “Effects of Mammography Screening Under Different Screening Schedules: Model Estimates of Potential Benefits and Harms.” Annals of Internal Medicine 151, no. 10 (2009): 738–47. “Breast Cancer Screening Recommendations for Women at Average Risk.” Susan G. Komen®, accessed February 20, 2014. Pay particular attention to the Figure 3.1, which compares different recommendations, but the other information is useful, too. Gottlieb, Scott. “Meet the ObamaCare Mandate Committee.” The Wall Street Journal. February 16, 2012. Boyles, Salynn. “New Mammogram Screening Guidelines FAQ.” WebMD, accessed February 20, 2014. “Breast Cancer Screening (PDQ®)” PubMed Health. Last updated December 3, 2013. H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute. “New Frontiers in Breast Cancer Screening.” Science Daily. April 5, 2013. Maillart, Lisa M., Julie Simmons Ivy, et al. “Assessing Dynamic Breast Cancer Screening Policies.” Operations Research 56, no. 6 (2008): 1411–27.